mistyzenz
2021-10-23
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Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>
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","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li> <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li> <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir & US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the <i>Capability Drop 2</i> (CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li> <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li> <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir & US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the <i>Capability Drop 2</i> (CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3562,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/858193399"}
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