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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":858821090,"tweetId":"858821090","gmtCreate":1635037566383,"gmtModify":1635037566979,"author":{"id":3577997605150210,"idStr":"3577997605150210","authorId":3577997605150210,"authorIdStr":"3577997605150210","name":"Suba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053ae4273b989a37e570ad5f7b35a6d6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858821090","repostId":1197815871,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197815871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635036807,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197815871?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197815871","media":"Barrons","summary":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nT","content":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.<blockquote>消费者发出了令人担忧的信号，但投资者没有注意到。是时候注意了。</blockquote> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.<blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常同步上涨和下跌。以过去18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预期推动股市连创新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的疫情，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧、工资攀升。那些股市上涨让消费者感到更加富裕，而富裕的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.<blockquote>然而，最近这种相关性已经被打破。尽管股市走高，但消费者却变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在8月份跌至2012年以来的最差水平后，9月份仅小幅反弹，跌至2020年3月大流行期间的低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样暴跌。</blockquote> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.<blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差异也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波新冠肺炎感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距仍然存在，这意味着故事不仅仅是病毒。</blockquote> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.<blockquote>那么，谁是对的呢？Shalett倾向于消费者的观点，而且她并不孤单。</blockquote> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.<blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，Dartmouth College经济学教授、英国央行货币政策委员会前外部成员David Blanchflower和University College London定量社会科学教授Alex Bryson写了他们看涨期权的“四处走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据他们自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.<blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数提前18个月预测美国经济将出现衰退。他们发现，自20世纪80年代以来的所有衰退都是由这些指数至少下降10个百分点来预测的。</blockquote> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.<blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson表示，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18个百分点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26个百分点。他们表示，虽然他们看涨期权2021年的经济形势“异常”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”<blockquote>“这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不一致，”布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.<blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下跌本身一样重要。调查显示，通胀是消费者最关心的问题，即使美联储继续否认不断增加的定价压力。</blockquote> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.<blockquote>以零售销售为例，华尔街认为这是消费者活跃的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group首席投资官Peter Boockvar指出，自3月份上一轮刺激支票发出以来，零售额仅增长了0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了3.6%。“有人可能会说，自三月份以来的所有零售额以及部分零售额都是通货膨胀，而不是销量，”布克瓦尔说。</blockquote> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.<blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房子和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会丧失。</blockquote> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.<blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管到处都有寻求帮助的迹象，工资也在快速增长，但人们也对就业市场感到担忧。工人们可能已经更永久地取消了在大流行期间风险更大的工作，并且没有支付足够的工资来支付成本，因为工资增长仍然跟不上消费者价格上涨的步伐。许多人正在开辟新的道路——新企业的形成继续爆炸式增长——强化了劳动力短缺不是暂时的观点。</blockquote> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.<blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？沙莱特表示：“如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升引发。”</blockquote> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.<blockquote>她表示，在一些地方，持久的劳动力短缺和消费者信心减弱交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用了更有弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是那些直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业。</blockquote> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.<blockquote>消费者目前的恐惧可能是暂时的。但这种恐惧本身及其原因发出了投资者不应忽视的不祥信息。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConsumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-10-24 08:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nConsumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.<blockquote>消费者发出了令人担忧的信号，但投资者没有注意到。是时候注意了。</blockquote> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.<blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常同步上涨和下跌。以过去18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预期推动股市连创新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的疫情，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧、工资攀升。那些股市上涨让消费者感到更加富裕，而富裕的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.<blockquote>然而，最近这种相关性已经被打破。尽管股市走高，但消费者却变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在8月份跌至2012年以来的最差水平后，9月份仅小幅反弹，跌至2020年3月大流行期间的低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样暴跌。</blockquote> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.<blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差异也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波新冠肺炎感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距仍然存在，这意味着故事不仅仅是病毒。</blockquote> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.<blockquote>那么，谁是对的呢？Shalett倾向于消费者的观点，而且她并不孤单。</blockquote> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.<blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，Dartmouth College经济学教授、英国央行货币政策委员会前外部成员David Blanchflower和University College London定量社会科学教授Alex Bryson写了他们看涨期权的“四处走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据他们自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.<blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数提前18个月预测美国经济将出现衰退。他们发现，自20世纪80年代以来的所有衰退都是由这些指数至少下降10个百分点来预测的。</blockquote> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.<blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson表示，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18个百分点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26个百分点。他们表示，虽然他们看涨期权2021年的经济形势“异常”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”<blockquote>“这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不一致，”布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.<blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下跌本身一样重要。调查显示，通胀是消费者最关心的问题，即使美联储继续否认不断增加的定价压力。</blockquote> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.<blockquote>以零售销售为例，华尔街认为这是消费者活跃的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group首席投资官Peter Boockvar指出，自3月份上一轮刺激支票发出以来，零售额仅增长了0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了3.6%。“有人可能会说，自三月份以来的所有零售额以及部分零售额都是通货膨胀，而不是销量，”布克瓦尔说。</blockquote> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.<blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房子和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会丧失。</blockquote> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.<blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管到处都有寻求帮助的迹象，工资也在快速增长，但人们也对就业市场感到担忧。工人们可能已经更永久地取消了在大流行期间风险更大的工作，并且没有支付足够的工资来支付成本，因为工资增长仍然跟不上消费者价格上涨的步伐。许多人正在开辟新的道路——新企业的形成继续爆炸式增长——强化了劳动力短缺不是暂时的观点。</blockquote> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.<blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？沙莱特表示：“如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升引发。”</blockquote> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.<blockquote>她表示，在一些地方，持久的劳动力短缺和消费者信心减弱交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用了更有弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是那些直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业。</blockquote> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.<blockquote>消费者目前的恐惧可能是暂时的。但这种恐惧本身及其原因发出了投资者不应忽视的不祥信息。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197815871","content_text":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nThe stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.\nRecently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.\nThe gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.\nSo, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.\nIn a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.\nTheir conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.\nThe Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.\n“This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”\nThe reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.\nConsider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.\nWidespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.\nPeople are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.\nWhat is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.\nThere are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.\nConsumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3205,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/858821090"}