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2021-10-19
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Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":859022245,"tweetId":"859022245","gmtCreate":1634642052633,"gmtModify":1634642072315,"author":{"id":3575517733011286,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorId":3575517733011286,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice!! Up up!!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice!! Up up!!</p></body></html>","text":"Nice!! Up up!!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859022245","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198851965","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634623112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198851965?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 13:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198851965","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQ3 street estimates seems rather low.\nMargin strength could lead to large beat.\nInvestors l","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Q3 street estimates seems rather low.</li> <li>Margin strength could lead to large beat.</li> <li>Investors looking for comments on supply chain issues.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5041f66900bbf640321835328ad686ba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度华尔街的估计似乎相当低。</li><li>保证金强度可能会导致大幅上涨。</li><li>寻求供应链问题评论的投资者。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced record production and deliveries for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）将于10月20日星期三盘后公布第三季度业绩，所有人的目光都将集中在该公司身上。最近，该公司宣布本季度创纪录的产量和交付量超出了分析师的预期。然而，华尔街对第三季度的预期并没有像人们预期的那样上升，这可能会导致本周另一份井喷式的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> For the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，初步交付量为241,300辆，比华尔街预期高出近20,000辆。今年第二季度，每辆交付车辆的平均收入（包括监管信贷销售）略低于50,700美元。如果你基本上四舍五入，数学告诉你，这样规模的节拍应该相当于额外的10亿美元收入。在这份报告中，华尔街第三季度的平均市值正好是130亿美元，但看看我们现在的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6077ce9974face1a7cfbeabe2e93e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"73\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha分析师预估页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.</p><p><blockquote>尽管交付量大幅增长，但街头平均水平甚至没有上升6.5亿美元，因此目前的共识似乎有点低。此外，“低”估计似乎完全出乎意料，因为尽管额外交付了大约40,000辆，但这将意味着第二季度的营收数字有所下降。别忘了，Model S现金交付量环比增长约6,000辆，按平均售价10万美元计算，仅收入就增加了6亿美元。剔除较低的估计值将使街头平均价格增加1亿美元。除非有一些大规模折扣或前期调整，否则任何130亿美元左右或以下的收入估计似乎都不符合逻辑。</blockquote></p><p> Model Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Model Y在欧洲的销售、更多Model S的销售（包括昂贵的Plaid）以及美国整整一个季度的提价都应该是有利因素。随着本季度美元小幅走强，中国的标准Y区间将带来一定程度的阻力。然而，随着该计划在本季度有所扩大，特斯拉可能会确认与其全自动驾驶功能相关的数亿美元递延收入。我还预计信贷销售额将环比下降1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>也许本季度最大的问题将是利润率。所有这些价格上涨、更多Model Y和新款Model S的组合以及中国产量的增加应该是积极的，有可能抵消部分或全部供应链或芯片短缺的通胀。在我的基本案例中，我假设汽车总毛利率增加了一个百分点，即从第一季度到第二季度跃升190个基点的一半多一点。正如我通常所做的那样，下表显示了熊市、基本市和牛市的情况，除每股金额外，美元价值均以数百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f864f8d975853337e47b5f88687b983\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.</p><p><blockquote>我肯定会有批评者认为我只是想设定一个很高的标准，这样特斯拉就无法击败我的基本情况。这在这里不是真的，因为在收入方面，我甚至不到街头平均水平和街头高估计之间的一半。就底线而言，我什至不认为特斯拉会像第二季度那样上涨（47美分）。此外，使用过去三年从第二季度到第三季度非GAAP每股收益的平均增幅，我们的每股收益将略高于2美元，我仍然呼吁在那里使用一个手柄。如果特斯拉的净利润未达到预期，毛利率就必须环比下降约一个百分点。即便如此，收入的小幅增长或运营费用的节省仍可能推动利润的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注的另一个主要项目是特斯拉生产设施的最新情况。上海3/Y的产量现在似乎超过了弗里蒙特，柏林和德克萨斯州的工厂仍有望在今年开业。如果该公司想在2022年实现50%的年增长率，这可能意味着交付量超过130万辆，则需要这些设施在未来几个月内上线。任何特定于特斯拉的延迟持续到新的一年，也可能会影响其他已经推迟的新产品（Semi、Cybertruck、new Roadster），并让竞争对手可能窃取一些市场份额。过去几天，特斯拉从其网站上删除了Cybertruck的规格和价格。这可能与该产品推出以来大宗商品成本飙升有关，这可能意味着特斯拉将在生产最终开始时提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> As for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.</p><p><blockquote>至于特斯拉股价，目前正处于非常好的上升趋势，并在第三季度交付报告发布后稳步突破800美元。如下图所示，50日移动平均线（粉色线）已回到长期移动平均线（紫色线200日）上方。该股周五收盘价较历史高点不到60美元，因此这里唯一的担忧可能是收益报告可能是旧的“买入谣言，卖出新闻”类型的事件。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6c847a0a536db8d53da68a6fbbbeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎！金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于本周公布第三季度收益，如果我们看到该公司再次表现出色，我不会感到惊讶。鉴于交付量环比大幅增长，华尔街的一些预期似乎有点低，任何利润率的增加都可能意味着利润的大幅增长。投资者将关注产能的最新情况，不仅是为了了解柏林和德克萨斯是否接近准备就绪，还开始考虑特斯拉明年的交付量超过100万辆。看看该股随后的反应肯定会很有趣，因为最近的反弹可能意味着投资者正在消化另一次大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 13:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Q3 street estimates seems rather low.</li> <li>Margin strength could lead to large beat.</li> <li>Investors looking for comments on supply chain issues.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5041f66900bbf640321835328ad686ba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度华尔街的估计似乎相当低。</li><li>保证金强度可能会导致大幅上涨。</li><li>寻求供应链问题评论的投资者。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced record production and deliveries for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）将于10月20日星期三盘后公布第三季度业绩，所有人的目光都将集中在该公司身上。最近，该公司宣布本季度创纪录的产量和交付量超出了分析师的预期。然而，华尔街对第三季度的预期并没有像人们预期的那样上升，这可能会导致本周另一份井喷式的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> For the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，初步交付量为241,300辆，比华尔街预期高出近20,000辆。今年第二季度，每辆交付车辆的平均收入（包括监管信贷销售）略低于50,700美元。如果你基本上四舍五入，数学告诉你，这样规模的节拍应该相当于额外的10亿美元收入。在这份报告中，华尔街第三季度的平均市值正好是130亿美元，但看看我们现在的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6077ce9974face1a7cfbeabe2e93e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"73\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha分析师预估页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.</p><p><blockquote>尽管交付量大幅增长，但街头平均水平甚至没有上升6.5亿美元，因此目前的共识似乎有点低。此外，“低”估计似乎完全出乎意料，因为尽管额外交付了大约40,000辆，但这将意味着第二季度的营收数字有所下降。别忘了，Model S现金交付量环比增长约6,000辆，按平均售价10万美元计算，仅收入就增加了6亿美元。剔除较低的估计值将使街头平均价格增加1亿美元。除非有一些大规模折扣或前期调整，否则任何130亿美元左右或以下的收入估计似乎都不符合逻辑。</blockquote></p><p> Model Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Model Y在欧洲的销售、更多Model S的销售（包括昂贵的Plaid）以及美国整整一个季度的提价都应该是有利因素。随着本季度美元小幅走强，中国的标准Y区间将带来一定程度的阻力。然而，随着该计划在本季度有所扩大，特斯拉可能会确认与其全自动驾驶功能相关的数亿美元递延收入。我还预计信贷销售额将环比下降1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>也许本季度最大的问题将是利润率。所有这些价格上涨、更多Model Y和新款Model S的组合以及中国产量的增加应该是积极的，有可能抵消部分或全部供应链或芯片短缺的通胀。在我的基本案例中，我假设汽车总毛利率增加了一个百分点，即从第一季度到第二季度跃升190个基点的一半多一点。正如我通常所做的那样，下表显示了熊市、基本市和牛市的情况，除每股金额外，美元价值均以数百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f864f8d975853337e47b5f88687b983\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.</p><p><blockquote>我肯定会有批评者认为我只是想设定一个很高的标准，这样特斯拉就无法击败我的基本情况。这在这里不是真的，因为在收入方面，我甚至不到街头平均水平和街头高估计之间的一半。就底线而言，我什至不认为特斯拉会像第二季度那样上涨（47美分）。此外，使用过去三年从第二季度到第三季度非GAAP每股收益的平均增幅，我们的每股收益将略高于2美元，我仍然呼吁在那里使用一个手柄。如果特斯拉的净利润未达到预期，毛利率就必须环比下降约一个百分点。即便如此，收入的小幅增长或运营费用的节省仍可能推动利润的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注的另一个主要项目是特斯拉生产设施的最新情况。上海3/Y的产量现在似乎超过了弗里蒙特，柏林和德克萨斯州的工厂仍有望在今年开业。如果该公司想在2022年实现50%的年增长率，这可能意味着交付量超过130万辆，则需要这些设施在未来几个月内上线。任何特定于特斯拉的延迟持续到新的一年，也可能会影响其他已经推迟的新产品（Semi、Cybertruck、new Roadster），并让竞争对手可能窃取一些市场份额。过去几天，特斯拉从其网站上删除了Cybertruck的规格和价格。这可能与该产品推出以来大宗商品成本飙升有关，这可能意味着特斯拉将在生产最终开始时提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> As for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.</p><p><blockquote>至于特斯拉股价，目前正处于非常好的上升趋势，并在第三季度交付报告发布后稳步突破800美元。如下图所示，50日移动平均线（粉色线）已回到长期移动平均线（紫色线200日）上方。该股周五收盘价较历史高点不到60美元，因此这里唯一的担忧可能是收益报告可能是旧的“买入谣言，卖出新闻”类型的事件。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6c847a0a536db8d53da68a6fbbbeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎！金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于本周公布第三季度收益，如果我们看到该公司再次表现出色，我不会感到惊讶。鉴于交付量环比大幅增长，华尔街的一些预期似乎有点低，任何利润率的增加都可能意味着利润的大幅增长。投资者将关注产能的最新情况，不仅是为了了解柏林和德克萨斯是否接近准备就绪，还开始考虑特斯拉明年的交付量超过100万辆。看看该股随后的反应肯定会很有趣，因为最近的反弹可能意味着投资者正在消化另一次大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460443-tesla-stock-blowout-q3-possible-again\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460443-tesla-stock-blowout-q3-possible-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198851965","content_text":"Summary\n\nQ3 street estimates seems rather low.\nMargin strength could lead to large beat.\nInvestors looking for comments on supply chain issues.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAll eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced record production and deliveries for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.\nFor the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.\nSource: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page\nDespite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.\nModel Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.\nPerhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.\nI'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.\nThe other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.\nAs for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/859022245"}
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