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2021-09-20
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McDonald's Growth In A Rebound Can Take It To New Highs<blockquote>麦当劳在反弹中的增长可能会将其推向新高</blockquote>
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Although supply chain and labor issues persist, the combination of positive earnings and revenue growth can drive McDonald's to new highs.</p><p><blockquote>作为著名的股息增长冠军,麦当劳(纽约证券交易所股票代码:MCD)结合了受大流行影响的运营带来的盈利和收入反弹、忠诚度和数字渠道的增长以及面对面餐饮的复苏等因素的所有正确因素。尽管供应链和劳动力问题持续存在,但积极的盈利和收入增长相结合,可以推动麦当劳再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Strong Rebound</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲反弹</b></blockquote></p><p> 2020 proved a challenging year for many businesses dependent on foot traffic, given that widespread restrictions and lockdowns limited customer activity in-person. Fast food chains suffered sharp declines in traffic, but not as sharp as entertainment venues, theaters, malls or hotels. Some of the top fast food/quick-service chains across different food categories (pizzas, burgers, drinks, etc.) and their change in foot traffic during 2020 is shown below.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于广泛的限制和封锁限制了客户的面对面活动,2020年对于许多依赖客流量的企业来说是充满挑战的一年。快餐连锁店的客流量急剧下降,但没有娱乐场所、剧院、商场或酒店那么急剧。不同食品类别(披萨、汉堡、饮料等)的一些顶级快餐/快速服务连锁店。)以及它们在2020年期间的客流量变化如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/211bfacc1cdbe5728bdf6b67f5d96faa\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"592\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Yahoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自雅虎</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Yum Brands' KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell(NYSE:YUM), Restaurant Brands International's Burger King and Popeyes(NYSE:QSR), Domino’s(NYSE:DPZ), Papa John’s(NASDAQ:PZZA), and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)all witnessed foot traffic decline over 50% in just two months, by April 2020; while McDonald's, Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Wendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)saw declines closer to 40%. McDonald's finished 2020 with the second smallest decline at about 45%, just behind Dunkin's 41% decline - however, these are still significant declines in foot traffic, which were offset by drive-thru and delivery.</p><p><blockquote>百胜餐饮旗下的肯德基、必胜客和塔可钟(纽约证券交易所股票代码:YUM),国际餐饮品牌的汉堡王和大力水手(纽约证券交易所股票代码:QSR),达美乐(纽约证券交易所股票代码:DPZ),棒约翰(纳斯达克股票代码:PZZA)和星巴克(纳斯达克股票代码:SBUX)的客流量在短短两个月内下降了50%以上;而麦当劳、Chipotle(纽约证券交易所股票代码:CMG)和Wendy's(纳斯达克股票代码:WEN)的跌幅接近40%。麦当劳在2020年以第二小的跌幅结束,约为45%,仅次于Dunkin的41%跌幅——然而,这些仍然是客流量的大幅下降,被得来速和送货所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> Even with >40% declines in traffic, McDonald's witnessed just a 23.9% decline in comp sales for Q2 2020, with that figure primarily driven by declines in the international segment. Now, comp sales have not just recovered off those declines, but grown above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管客流量下降了40%以上,但麦当劳2020年第二季度的同店销售额仅下降了23.9%,这一数字主要是由国际市场的下降推动的。现在,comp销售额不仅从这些下降中恢复过来,而且在2019年增长到高于大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> For Q2 2021, global comp sales showed 40.5% y/y - international drove a lot of the rebound, up 75.1%, while US rose 25.9%. Consolidated revenues were up 58% y/y as system sales rose 48%. These figures demonstrate the breadth of the recovery for the company compared to a severely impacted Q2 2020. McDonald's logged its highest quarterly revenue in over 10 quarters, with TTM revenue reaching a three-year high at $21.74 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度,全球销售额同比增长40.5%——国际市场推动了很大反弹,增长了75.1%,而美国增长了25.9%。综合收入同比增长58%,系统销售额增长48%。与受到严重影响的2020年第二季度相比,这些数字显示了该公司复苏的广度。麦当劳创下10多个季度以来的最高季度收入,TTM收入达到217.4亿美元,创三年新高。</blockquote></p><p> A 2-year basis - comparing Q2 2021 to Q2 2019, prior to the pandemic - is where the true strength of that recovery is visible. Global comp sales are 6.9% higher than Q2 2019, with US comp sales showing a solid 14.9% increase and international just 2.6%. Comp sales strengths have been fueled by \"strong average check growth driven by larger order size and menu price increases...as well as growth in delivery and digital platforms.\" Even with the Delta variant surging and potentially impacting some in-person dining, McDonald's had 70% of dining rooms open, planning to be fully opened by Labor Day, paving the way for higher foot traffic aiding check and order size in comp sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>以两年为基础——将2021年第二季度与疫情爆发前的2019年第二季度进行比较——可以看出复苏的真正实力。全球comp销售额比2019年Q2高出6.9%,其中美国comp销售额稳步增长14.9%,国际仅增长2.6%。“订单规模扩大和菜单价格上涨推动了平均支票的强劲增长……以及送货和数字平台的增长”推动了Comp的销售优势。尽管德尔塔变异毒株激增并可能影响一些面对面用餐,但麦当劳仍有70%的餐厅开放,并计划在劳动节之前全面开放,为更高的客流量铺平道路,有助于支票和订单规模的比较销售增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings and Revenue Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利和收入增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although the pandemic still lingers as the case counts stemming from the Delta variant have spiked since the summer, McDonald's is charging forward with revenue and earnings growth. Q2 has put McDonald's on track to post its highest revenues since FY17 and its highest EPS figure.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自夏季以来,德尔塔变异毒株的病例数激增,疫情仍在持续,但麦当劳的收入和盈利仍在加速增长。第二季度麦当劳有望实现自2017财年以来的最高收入和最高每股收益数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da164639956bc60c90f11ed1a9ff848f\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data from McDonald's</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自麦当劳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the first half of FY21, operating metrics not only have shown solid growth from 2020, but from 2019 and 2018 as well. Revenues are up 6.9% from 2019, while operating income is up 13.8% as margins expanded. Net income rose 32% from 2019's level, boosting diluted EPS substantially, up to $5.00 as shares outstanding decreased by almost 2.5%.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年,运营指标不仅较2020年实现了稳健增长,而且较2019年和2018年也实现了稳健增长。收入较2019年增长6.9%,营业收入随着利润率的扩大增长13.8%。净利润较2019年水平增长32%,摊薄后每股收益大幅提高,达到5.00美元,而流通股减少了近2.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As the fiscal year progresses and Q3 comes to a close, this growth is expected to continue; for the full year, revenues are expected to reach $23 billion, up nearly 20% y/y, with EPS projected to reach $9.1, up 50% y/y. Compared to 2019, revenues would be 9.1% higher and EPS 16.1%. Given the changes in the operating environment that have persisted, with dine-in not available in all locations, and with the rise of the Delta variant, this level of growth is impressive. Although this growth doesn't compare to a peer such as Wendy's, as revenues grew 12.9% in1H 21compared to 1H 19, and net income 66.6%, it's the scale that matters; Wendy's is a fraction of McDonald's, doing just $3.2 billion in system-wide sales during Q2 compared to McDonald's $28.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>随着财年的进展和第三季度的结束,这种增长预计将持续下去;全年收入预计将达到230亿美元,同比增长近20%,每股收益预计将达到9.1美元,同比增长50%。与2019年相比,收入将增长9.1%,每股收益将增长16.1%。鉴于经营环境的持续变化,并非所有地点都提供堂食,以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起,这一增长水平令人印象深刻。尽管这种增长无法与Wendy's等同行相比,因为与2019年上半年相比,2021年上半年的收入增长了12.9%,净利润增长了66.6%,但规模才是最重要的;Wendy's只是麦当劳的一小部分,第二季度全系统销售额仅为32亿美元,而麦当劳为282亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Catalysts and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Aside from dine-in now being available in all locations (unless that has changed in the past two weeks), McDonald's has a few other key catalysts supporting its growth, including digital, delivery and a loyalty program. Last year's limited or no dine-in availability forced fast food restaurants to shift to those other service channels, drive-thru included.</p><p><blockquote>除了现在所有地点都提供堂食(除非过去两周发生变化),麦当劳还有其他一些关键催化剂支持其增长,包括数字化、送货和忠诚度计划。去年,堂食供应有限或没有,迫使快餐店转向其他服务渠道,包括得来速。</blockquote></p><p> MyMcDonald's Rewards is the forefront of McDonald's digital strategy alongside its app, with the loyalty/rewards program rolling out in its largest markets. Going on its sixth year now, the app boasts over 150 million downloads (active users not disclosed), leaving McDonald's a massive user base to tap into with its rewards program. In the US, McDonald's reported over 22 million active users through Q2, with 12 million of those already joining the loyalty/rewards program. The company added that this was prior to advertising the program domestically, with additional rollouts in Germany and Canada this year, and the UK and Australia in 2022. Demand for the rewards program looks strong.</p><p><blockquote>MyMcDonald’s Rewards与其应用程序一起是麦当劳数字战略的前沿,忠诚度/奖励计划在其最大的市场推出。该应用程序现已进入第六个年头,下载量超过1.5亿次(活跃用户未披露),为麦当劳的奖励计划留下了庞大的用户群。在美国,麦当劳通过Q2报告了超过2200万活跃用户,其中1200万已经加入了忠诚度/奖励计划。该公司补充说,这是在国内宣传该计划之前,今年将在德国和加拿大以及2022年在英国和澳大利亚进一步推出。对奖励计划的需求看起来很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Digital system-wide sales in the top six markets for McDonald's reached almost $8 billion in 1H 2021, up 70% y/y, and accounting for almost 30% of total system-wide sales for 1H. While loyalty rewards can drive higher engagement through the app, the true sign of long-term growth will stem from active users in the app and growth in loyalty signups. MyMcDonald's Rewards is still rolling out in large markets in Q4 and FY22, and early signup rates from the US show that demand for the program is there. Digital channels include delivery and self-service kiosks, and the upcoming quarters will shed light on whether digital sales continue to see momentum even as dining rooms reopen in full. Embedded the app with drive-thru and loyalty has created a synergy that has fueled digital growth, ahead of internal targets for digital customers.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年,麦当劳六大市场的数字全系统销售额达到近80亿美元,同比增长70%,占上半年全系统总销售额的近30%。虽然忠诚度奖励可以通过应用程序推动更高的参与度,但长期增长的真正迹象将源于应用程序中的活跃用户和忠诚度注册的增长。MyMcDonald's Rewards仍在第四季度和2022财年在大型市场推出,美国的早期注册率表明对该计划的需求是存在的。数字渠道包括送货和自助服务亭,未来几个季度将揭示即使餐厅全面重新开放,数字销售是否会继续保持势头。将该应用程序与得来速和忠诚度相结合,创造了协同效应,推动了数字增长,领先于数字客户的内部目标。</blockquote></p><p> New product offerings and limited time collaborations also can spark traffic - the company is rolling out the McPlant, a pea-protein burger from Beyond Meat(NASDAQ:BYND), in more markets, while limited edition meals and orders including the Travis Scott, J Balvin and BTS orders and the Crispy Chicken Sandwich. Strong momentum and record breaking demand for the limited edition orders/items bodes well for future releases or orders.</p><p><blockquote>新产品供应和限时合作也可以激发流量——该公司正在更多市场推出Beyond Meat(纳斯达克股票代码:BYND)的豌豆蛋白汉堡McPlant,同时限量版餐食和订单包括Travis Scott、J Balvin和BTS订单以及脆皮鸡肉三明治。对限量版订单/项目的强劲势头和破纪录的需求预示着未来的发布或订单。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, McDonald's is battling supply chain and labor issues. Companies across all industries have had trouble finding, attracting and hiring workers, and McDonald's stores faced similar issues. McDonald's is seeing an increase in applications amid a 5% increase in US wages; labor inflation has been the majority driver of pricing, which is up about 6% this year, with food contributing just about 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,麦当劳正在与供应链和劳动力问题作斗争。所有行业的公司都在寻找、吸引和雇佣工人方面遇到了困难,麦当劳商店也面临着类似的问题。在美国工资上涨5%的情况下,麦当劳的申请数量有所增加;劳动力通胀一直是定价的主要驱动因素,今年价格上涨了约6%,而食品通胀仅占约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Some margin pressures could surface in the back half of the year if average check moderates slightly from Q2's levels, but the broader top-line growth for the remainder of the year aided by these catalysts is expected to keep EPS growth strong. For FY21, McDonald's trades at about 26.6x projected diluted earnings of $9.10, about in line with historical levels, and about 24.2x FY22 earnings of $10.00, as strong margins and close to ~6% growth in revenue can drive ~10% growth in earnings y/y. FY23 could see similar growth rates, up to $10.90 in earnings on about 5.5% growth in revenues. A simple valuation at 26x FY23 earnings provides about 17% upside to $283 in one-year, and while there are other factors in play, the overall strengths within margin, loyalty program uptake, and digital sales acceleration/persistence support that growth and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均支票较第二季度的水平略有放缓,今年下半年可能会出现一些利润率压力,但在这些催化剂的帮助下,今年剩余时间更广泛的营收增长预计将保持每股收益的强劲增长。2021财年,麦当劳的预期摊薄收益约为9.10美元的26.6倍,与历史水平大致一致,2022财年收益约为10.00美元的24.2倍,因为强劲的利润率和接近6%的收入增长可以推动约10%的收益同比增长。2023财年可能会出现类似的增长率,收入增长约5.5%,盈利高达10.90美元。26倍2023财年收益的简单估值在一年内提供了约17%的上涨空间,达到283美元,虽然还有其他因素在起作用,但利润率、忠诚度计划吸收和数字销售加速/持久性方面的整体优势支持了这种增长和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> McDonald's has rebounded quickly from 2020's harsh operating environment, even as headwinds to foot traffic have remained in place. Comp sales have not only shown strong growth off of 2020's levels, but solid single and low double-digit growth off of 2019, demonstrating just how strong this recovery has been. The digital channel has proven to be a large driver of system-wide sales, rising 70% to reach $8 billion in 1H; the rollout of the loyalty program in more top markets over the next four to six quarters can help drive digital engagement. While there are some challenges within inflationary pressures from labor and food, margins have expanded, and some slight moderation in margins amid top-line growth can drive revenues and earnings higher over the next couple years, and drive double-digit upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管客流量仍然面临阻力,但麦当劳已从2020年恶劣的经营环境中迅速反弹。Comp销售额不仅比2020年的水平强劲增长,而且比2019年实现了稳健的个位数和低两位数增长,表明了这种复苏的强劲程度。事实证明,数字渠道是全系统销售额的巨大推动力,上半年销售额增长了70%,达到80亿美元;未来四到六个季度在更多顶级市场推出忠诚度计划有助于推动数字参与。尽管劳动力和食品带来的通胀压力面临一些挑战,但利润率已经扩大,在营收增长的情况下,利润率略有放缓,可能会在未来几年推动收入和盈利走高,并推动两位数的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>McDonald's Growth In A Rebound Can Take It To New Highs<blockquote>麦当劳在反弹中的增长可能会将其推向新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMcDonald's Growth In A Rebound Can Take It To New Highs<blockquote>麦当劳在反弹中的增长可能会将其推向新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 10:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>2020 proved to be a challenging year, and while some headwinds to foot traffic have remained, revenues and earnings are surging.</li> <li>Revenues are reaching a multi-year high, with strengths in digital channels and limited time/celeb orders.</li> <li>Rollout of the MyMcDonald's Rewards should attract millions of more users and drive digital channel sales, a long-term growth opportunity.</li> <li>Labor and supply chain issues have had some impacts on operations, but margins have expanded still.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95cfe39f14f810cca92bd298c0d36ae4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1070\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jerritt Clark/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>事实证明,2020年是充满挑战的一年,尽管客流量仍然存在一些阻力,但收入和盈利正在飙升。</li><li>凭借在数字渠道和限时/名人订单方面的优势,收入正达到多年来的最高水平。</li><li>MyMcDonald's奖励的推出应该会吸引数百万用户并推动数字渠道销售,这是一个长期增长机会。</li><li>劳动力和供应链问题对运营产生了一些影响,但利润率仍在扩大。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杰里特·克拉克/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A renowned dividend growth champion, McDonald's(NYSE:MCD)combines all of the right ingredients of an earnings and revenue rebound from pandemic-impacted operations, growing loyalty and digital channels, and recoveries in in-person dining, among other factors. Although supply chain and labor issues persist, the combination of positive earnings and revenue growth can drive McDonald's to new highs.</p><p><blockquote>作为著名的股息增长冠军,麦当劳(纽约证券交易所股票代码:MCD)结合了受大流行影响的运营带来的盈利和收入反弹、忠诚度和数字渠道的增长以及面对面餐饮的复苏等因素的所有正确因素。尽管供应链和劳动力问题持续存在,但积极的盈利和收入增长相结合,可以推动麦当劳再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Strong Rebound</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲反弹</b></blockquote></p><p> 2020 proved a challenging year for many businesses dependent on foot traffic, given that widespread restrictions and lockdowns limited customer activity in-person. Fast food chains suffered sharp declines in traffic, but not as sharp as entertainment venues, theaters, malls or hotels. Some of the top fast food/quick-service chains across different food categories (pizzas, burgers, drinks, etc.) and their change in foot traffic during 2020 is shown below.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于广泛的限制和封锁限制了客户的面对面活动,2020年对于许多依赖客流量的企业来说是充满挑战的一年。快餐连锁店的客流量急剧下降,但没有娱乐场所、剧院、商场或酒店那么急剧。不同食品类别(披萨、汉堡、饮料等)的一些顶级快餐/快速服务连锁店。)以及它们在2020年期间的客流量变化如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/211bfacc1cdbe5728bdf6b67f5d96faa\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"592\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Yahoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自雅虎</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Yum Brands' KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell(NYSE:YUM), Restaurant Brands International's Burger King and Popeyes(NYSE:QSR), Domino’s(NYSE:DPZ), Papa John’s(NASDAQ:PZZA), and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)all witnessed foot traffic decline over 50% in just two months, by April 2020; while McDonald's, Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Wendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)saw declines closer to 40%. McDonald's finished 2020 with the second smallest decline at about 45%, just behind Dunkin's 41% decline - however, these are still significant declines in foot traffic, which were offset by drive-thru and delivery.</p><p><blockquote>百胜餐饮旗下的肯德基、必胜客和塔可钟(纽约证券交易所股票代码:YUM),国际餐饮品牌的汉堡王和大力水手(纽约证券交易所股票代码:QSR),达美乐(纽约证券交易所股票代码:DPZ),棒约翰(纳斯达克股票代码:PZZA)和星巴克(纳斯达克股票代码:SBUX)的客流量在短短两个月内下降了50%以上;而麦当劳、Chipotle(纽约证券交易所股票代码:CMG)和Wendy's(纳斯达克股票代码:WEN)的跌幅接近40%。麦当劳在2020年以第二小的跌幅结束,约为45%,仅次于Dunkin的41%跌幅——然而,这些仍然是客流量的大幅下降,被得来速和送货所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> Even with >40% declines in traffic, McDonald's witnessed just a 23.9% decline in comp sales for Q2 2020, with that figure primarily driven by declines in the international segment. Now, comp sales have not just recovered off those declines, but grown above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管客流量下降了40%以上,但麦当劳2020年第二季度的同店销售额仅下降了23.9%,这一数字主要是由国际市场的下降推动的。现在,comp销售额不仅从这些下降中恢复过来,而且在2019年增长到高于大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> For Q2 2021, global comp sales showed 40.5% y/y - international drove a lot of the rebound, up 75.1%, while US rose 25.9%. Consolidated revenues were up 58% y/y as system sales rose 48%. These figures demonstrate the breadth of the recovery for the company compared to a severely impacted Q2 2020. McDonald's logged its highest quarterly revenue in over 10 quarters, with TTM revenue reaching a three-year high at $21.74 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度,全球销售额同比增长40.5%——国际市场推动了很大反弹,增长了75.1%,而美国增长了25.9%。综合收入同比增长58%,系统销售额增长48%。与受到严重影响的2020年第二季度相比,这些数字显示了该公司复苏的广度。麦当劳创下10多个季度以来的最高季度收入,TTM收入达到217.4亿美元,创三年新高。</blockquote></p><p> A 2-year basis - comparing Q2 2021 to Q2 2019, prior to the pandemic - is where the true strength of that recovery is visible. Global comp sales are 6.9% higher than Q2 2019, with US comp sales showing a solid 14.9% increase and international just 2.6%. Comp sales strengths have been fueled by \"strong average check growth driven by larger order size and menu price increases...as well as growth in delivery and digital platforms.\" Even with the Delta variant surging and potentially impacting some in-person dining, McDonald's had 70% of dining rooms open, planning to be fully opened by Labor Day, paving the way for higher foot traffic aiding check and order size in comp sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>以两年为基础——将2021年第二季度与疫情爆发前的2019年第二季度进行比较——可以看出复苏的真正实力。全球comp销售额比2019年Q2高出6.9%,其中美国comp销售额稳步增长14.9%,国际仅增长2.6%。“订单规模扩大和菜单价格上涨推动了平均支票的强劲增长……以及送货和数字平台的增长”推动了Comp的销售优势。尽管德尔塔变异毒株激增并可能影响一些面对面用餐,但麦当劳仍有70%的餐厅开放,并计划在劳动节之前全面开放,为更高的客流量铺平道路,有助于支票和订单规模的比较销售增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings and Revenue Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利和收入增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although the pandemic still lingers as the case counts stemming from the Delta variant have spiked since the summer, McDonald's is charging forward with revenue and earnings growth. Q2 has put McDonald's on track to post its highest revenues since FY17 and its highest EPS figure.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自夏季以来,德尔塔变异毒株的病例数激增,疫情仍在持续,但麦当劳的收入和盈利仍在加速增长。第二季度麦当劳有望实现自2017财年以来的最高收入和最高每股收益数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da164639956bc60c90f11ed1a9ff848f\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data from McDonald's</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自麦当劳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the first half of FY21, operating metrics not only have shown solid growth from 2020, but from 2019 and 2018 as well. Revenues are up 6.9% from 2019, while operating income is up 13.8% as margins expanded. Net income rose 32% from 2019's level, boosting diluted EPS substantially, up to $5.00 as shares outstanding decreased by almost 2.5%.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年,运营指标不仅较2020年实现了稳健增长,而且较2019年和2018年也实现了稳健增长。收入较2019年增长6.9%,营业收入随着利润率的扩大增长13.8%。净利润较2019年水平增长32%,摊薄后每股收益大幅提高,达到5.00美元,而流通股减少了近2.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As the fiscal year progresses and Q3 comes to a close, this growth is expected to continue; for the full year, revenues are expected to reach $23 billion, up nearly 20% y/y, with EPS projected to reach $9.1, up 50% y/y. Compared to 2019, revenues would be 9.1% higher and EPS 16.1%. Given the changes in the operating environment that have persisted, with dine-in not available in all locations, and with the rise of the Delta variant, this level of growth is impressive. Although this growth doesn't compare to a peer such as Wendy's, as revenues grew 12.9% in1H 21compared to 1H 19, and net income 66.6%, it's the scale that matters; Wendy's is a fraction of McDonald's, doing just $3.2 billion in system-wide sales during Q2 compared to McDonald's $28.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>随着财年的进展和第三季度的结束,这种增长预计将持续下去;全年收入预计将达到230亿美元,同比增长近20%,每股收益预计将达到9.1美元,同比增长50%。与2019年相比,收入将增长9.1%,每股收益将增长16.1%。鉴于经营环境的持续变化,并非所有地点都提供堂食,以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起,这一增长水平令人印象深刻。尽管这种增长无法与Wendy's等同行相比,因为与2019年上半年相比,2021年上半年的收入增长了12.9%,净利润增长了66.6%,但规模才是最重要的;Wendy's只是麦当劳的一小部分,第二季度全系统销售额仅为32亿美元,而麦当劳为282亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Catalysts and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Aside from dine-in now being available in all locations (unless that has changed in the past two weeks), McDonald's has a few other key catalysts supporting its growth, including digital, delivery and a loyalty program. Last year's limited or no dine-in availability forced fast food restaurants to shift to those other service channels, drive-thru included.</p><p><blockquote>除了现在所有地点都提供堂食(除非过去两周发生变化),麦当劳还有其他一些关键催化剂支持其增长,包括数字化、送货和忠诚度计划。去年,堂食供应有限或没有,迫使快餐店转向其他服务渠道,包括得来速。</blockquote></p><p> MyMcDonald's Rewards is the forefront of McDonald's digital strategy alongside its app, with the loyalty/rewards program rolling out in its largest markets. Going on its sixth year now, the app boasts over 150 million downloads (active users not disclosed), leaving McDonald's a massive user base to tap into with its rewards program. In the US, McDonald's reported over 22 million active users through Q2, with 12 million of those already joining the loyalty/rewards program. The company added that this was prior to advertising the program domestically, with additional rollouts in Germany and Canada this year, and the UK and Australia in 2022. Demand for the rewards program looks strong.</p><p><blockquote>MyMcDonald’s Rewards与其应用程序一起是麦当劳数字战略的前沿,忠诚度/奖励计划在其最大的市场推出。该应用程序现已进入第六个年头,下载量超过1.5亿次(活跃用户未披露),为麦当劳的奖励计划留下了庞大的用户群。在美国,麦当劳通过Q2报告了超过2200万活跃用户,其中1200万已经加入了忠诚度/奖励计划。该公司补充说,这是在国内宣传该计划之前,今年将在德国和加拿大以及2022年在英国和澳大利亚进一步推出。对奖励计划的需求看起来很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Digital system-wide sales in the top six markets for McDonald's reached almost $8 billion in 1H 2021, up 70% y/y, and accounting for almost 30% of total system-wide sales for 1H. While loyalty rewards can drive higher engagement through the app, the true sign of long-term growth will stem from active users in the app and growth in loyalty signups. MyMcDonald's Rewards is still rolling out in large markets in Q4 and FY22, and early signup rates from the US show that demand for the program is there. Digital channels include delivery and self-service kiosks, and the upcoming quarters will shed light on whether digital sales continue to see momentum even as dining rooms reopen in full. Embedded the app with drive-thru and loyalty has created a synergy that has fueled digital growth, ahead of internal targets for digital customers.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年,麦当劳六大市场的数字全系统销售额达到近80亿美元,同比增长70%,占上半年全系统总销售额的近30%。虽然忠诚度奖励可以通过应用程序推动更高的参与度,但长期增长的真正迹象将源于应用程序中的活跃用户和忠诚度注册的增长。MyMcDonald's Rewards仍在第四季度和2022财年在大型市场推出,美国的早期注册率表明对该计划的需求是存在的。数字渠道包括送货和自助服务亭,未来几个季度将揭示即使餐厅全面重新开放,数字销售是否会继续保持势头。将该应用程序与得来速和忠诚度相结合,创造了协同效应,推动了数字增长,领先于数字客户的内部目标。</blockquote></p><p> New product offerings and limited time collaborations also can spark traffic - the company is rolling out the McPlant, a pea-protein burger from Beyond Meat(NASDAQ:BYND), in more markets, while limited edition meals and orders including the Travis Scott, J Balvin and BTS orders and the Crispy Chicken Sandwich. Strong momentum and record breaking demand for the limited edition orders/items bodes well for future releases or orders.</p><p><blockquote>新产品供应和限时合作也可以激发流量——该公司正在更多市场推出Beyond Meat(纳斯达克股票代码:BYND)的豌豆蛋白汉堡McPlant,同时限量版餐食和订单包括Travis Scott、J Balvin和BTS订单以及脆皮鸡肉三明治。对限量版订单/项目的强劲势头和破纪录的需求预示着未来的发布或订单。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, McDonald's is battling supply chain and labor issues. Companies across all industries have had trouble finding, attracting and hiring workers, and McDonald's stores faced similar issues. McDonald's is seeing an increase in applications amid a 5% increase in US wages; labor inflation has been the majority driver of pricing, which is up about 6% this year, with food contributing just about 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,麦当劳正在与供应链和劳动力问题作斗争。所有行业的公司都在寻找、吸引和雇佣工人方面遇到了困难,麦当劳商店也面临着类似的问题。在美国工资上涨5%的情况下,麦当劳的申请数量有所增加;劳动力通胀一直是定价的主要驱动因素,今年价格上涨了约6%,而食品通胀仅占约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Some margin pressures could surface in the back half of the year if average check moderates slightly from Q2's levels, but the broader top-line growth for the remainder of the year aided by these catalysts is expected to keep EPS growth strong. For FY21, McDonald's trades at about 26.6x projected diluted earnings of $9.10, about in line with historical levels, and about 24.2x FY22 earnings of $10.00, as strong margins and close to ~6% growth in revenue can drive ~10% growth in earnings y/y. FY23 could see similar growth rates, up to $10.90 in earnings on about 5.5% growth in revenues. A simple valuation at 26x FY23 earnings provides about 17% upside to $283 in one-year, and while there are other factors in play, the overall strengths within margin, loyalty program uptake, and digital sales acceleration/persistence support that growth and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均支票较第二季度的水平略有放缓,今年下半年可能会出现一些利润率压力,但在这些催化剂的帮助下,今年剩余时间更广泛的营收增长预计将保持每股收益的强劲增长。2021财年,麦当劳的预期摊薄收益约为9.10美元的26.6倍,与历史水平大致一致,2022财年收益约为10.00美元的24.2倍,因为强劲的利润率和接近6%的收入增长可以推动约10%的收益同比增长。2023财年可能会出现类似的增长率,收入增长约5.5%,盈利高达10.90美元。26倍2023财年收益的简单估值在一年内提供了约17%的上涨空间,达到283美元,虽然还有其他因素在起作用,但利润率、忠诚度计划吸收和数字销售加速/持久性方面的整体优势支持了这种增长和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> McDonald's has rebounded quickly from 2020's harsh operating environment, even as headwinds to foot traffic have remained in place. Comp sales have not only shown strong growth off of 2020's levels, but solid single and low double-digit growth off of 2019, demonstrating just how strong this recovery has been. The digital channel has proven to be a large driver of system-wide sales, rising 70% to reach $8 billion in 1H; the rollout of the loyalty program in more top markets over the next four to six quarters can help drive digital engagement. While there are some challenges within inflationary pressures from labor and food, margins have expanded, and some slight moderation in margins amid top-line growth can drive revenues and earnings higher over the next couple years, and drive double-digit upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管客流量仍然面临阻力,但麦当劳已从2020年恶劣的经营环境中迅速反弹。Comp销售额不仅比2020年的水平强劲增长,而且比2019年实现了稳健的个位数和低两位数增长,表明了这种复苏的强劲程度。事实证明,数字渠道是全系统销售额的巨大推动力,上半年销售额增长了70%,达到80亿美元;未来四到六个季度在更多顶级市场推出忠诚度计划有助于推动数字参与。尽管劳动力和食品带来的通胀压力面临一些挑战,但利润率已经扩大,在营收增长的情况下,利润率略有放缓,可能会在未来几年推动收入和盈利走高,并推动两位数的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456054-mcdonalds-growth-in-a-rebound-can-take-it-to-new-highs\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MCD":"麦当劳"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456054-mcdonalds-growth-in-a-rebound-can-take-it-to-new-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103359237","content_text":"Summary\n\n2020 proved to be a challenging year, and while some headwinds to foot traffic have remained, revenues and earnings are surging.\nRevenues are reaching a multi-year high, with strengths in digital channels and limited time/celeb orders.\nRollout of the MyMcDonald's Rewards should attract millions of more users and drive digital channel sales, a long-term growth opportunity.\nLabor and supply chain issues have had some impacts on operations, but margins have expanded still.\n\nJerritt Clark/Getty Images Entertainment\nA renowned dividend growth champion, McDonald's(NYSE:MCD)combines all of the right ingredients of an earnings and revenue rebound from pandemic-impacted operations, growing loyalty and digital channels, and recoveries in in-person dining, among other factors. Although supply chain and labor issues persist, the combination of positive earnings and revenue growth can drive McDonald's to new highs.\nA Strong Rebound\n2020 proved a challenging year for many businesses dependent on foot traffic, given that widespread restrictions and lockdowns limited customer activity in-person. Fast food chains suffered sharp declines in traffic, but not as sharp as entertainment venues, theaters, malls or hotels. Some of the top fast food/quick-service chains across different food categories (pizzas, burgers, drinks, etc.) and their change in foot traffic during 2020 is shown below.\nGraphic from Yahoo\nYum Brands' KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell(NYSE:YUM), Restaurant Brands International's Burger King and Popeyes(NYSE:QSR), Domino’s(NYSE:DPZ), Papa John’s(NASDAQ:PZZA), and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)all witnessed foot traffic decline over 50% in just two months, by April 2020; while McDonald's, Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Wendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)saw declines closer to 40%. McDonald's finished 2020 with the second smallest decline at about 45%, just behind Dunkin's 41% decline - however, these are still significant declines in foot traffic, which were offset by drive-thru and delivery.\nEven with >40% declines in traffic, McDonald's witnessed just a 23.9% decline in comp sales for Q2 2020, with that figure primarily driven by declines in the international segment. Now, comp sales have not just recovered off those declines, but grown above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.\nFor Q2 2021, global comp sales showed 40.5% y/y - international drove a lot of the rebound, up 75.1%, while US rose 25.9%. Consolidated revenues were up 58% y/y as system sales rose 48%. These figures demonstrate the breadth of the recovery for the company compared to a severely impacted Q2 2020. McDonald's logged its highest quarterly revenue in over 10 quarters, with TTM revenue reaching a three-year high at $21.74 billion.\nA 2-year basis - comparing Q2 2021 to Q2 2019, prior to the pandemic - is where the true strength of that recovery is visible. Global comp sales are 6.9% higher than Q2 2019, with US comp sales showing a solid 14.9% increase and international just 2.6%. Comp sales strengths have been fueled by \"strong average check growth driven by larger order size and menu price increases...as well as growth in delivery and digital platforms.\" Even with the Delta variant surging and potentially impacting some in-person dining, McDonald's had 70% of dining rooms open, planning to be fully opened by Labor Day, paving the way for higher foot traffic aiding check and order size in comp sales growth.\nEarnings and Revenue Growth\nAlthough the pandemic still lingers as the case counts stemming from the Delta variant have spiked since the summer, McDonald's is charging forward with revenue and earnings growth. Q2 has put McDonald's on track to post its highest revenues since FY17 and its highest EPS figure.\nData from McDonald's\nFor the first half of FY21, operating metrics not only have shown solid growth from 2020, but from 2019 and 2018 as well. Revenues are up 6.9% from 2019, while operating income is up 13.8% as margins expanded. Net income rose 32% from 2019's level, boosting diluted EPS substantially, up to $5.00 as shares outstanding decreased by almost 2.5%.\nAs the fiscal year progresses and Q3 comes to a close, this growth is expected to continue; for the full year, revenues are expected to reach $23 billion, up nearly 20% y/y, with EPS projected to reach $9.1, up 50% y/y. Compared to 2019, revenues would be 9.1% higher and EPS 16.1%. Given the changes in the operating environment that have persisted, with dine-in not available in all locations, and with the rise of the Delta variant, this level of growth is impressive. Although this growth doesn't compare to a peer such as Wendy's, as revenues grew 12.9% in1H 21compared to 1H 19, and net income 66.6%, it's the scale that matters; Wendy's is a fraction of McDonald's, doing just $3.2 billion in system-wide sales during Q2 compared to McDonald's $28.2 billion.\nSome Catalysts and Challenges\nAside from dine-in now being available in all locations (unless that has changed in the past two weeks), McDonald's has a few other key catalysts supporting its growth, including digital, delivery and a loyalty program. Last year's limited or no dine-in availability forced fast food restaurants to shift to those other service channels, drive-thru included.\nMyMcDonald's Rewards is the forefront of McDonald's digital strategy alongside its app, with the loyalty/rewards program rolling out in its largest markets. Going on its sixth year now, the app boasts over 150 million downloads (active users not disclosed), leaving McDonald's a massive user base to tap into with its rewards program. In the US, McDonald's reported over 22 million active users through Q2, with 12 million of those already joining the loyalty/rewards program. The company added that this was prior to advertising the program domestically, with additional rollouts in Germany and Canada this year, and the UK and Australia in 2022. Demand for the rewards program looks strong.\nDigital system-wide sales in the top six markets for McDonald's reached almost $8 billion in 1H 2021, up 70% y/y, and accounting for almost 30% of total system-wide sales for 1H. While loyalty rewards can drive higher engagement through the app, the true sign of long-term growth will stem from active users in the app and growth in loyalty signups. MyMcDonald's Rewards is still rolling out in large markets in Q4 and FY22, and early signup rates from the US show that demand for the program is there. Digital channels include delivery and self-service kiosks, and the upcoming quarters will shed light on whether digital sales continue to see momentum even as dining rooms reopen in full. Embedded the app with drive-thru and loyalty has created a synergy that has fueled digital growth, ahead of internal targets for digital customers.\nNew product offerings and limited time collaborations also can spark traffic - the company is rolling out the McPlant, a pea-protein burger from Beyond Meat(NASDAQ:BYND), in more markets, while limited edition meals and orders including the Travis Scott, J Balvin and BTS orders and the Crispy Chicken Sandwich. Strong momentum and record breaking demand for the limited edition orders/items bodes well for future releases or orders.\nAt the same time, McDonald's is battling supply chain and labor issues. Companies across all industries have had trouble finding, attracting and hiring workers, and McDonald's stores faced similar issues. McDonald's is seeing an increase in applications amid a 5% increase in US wages; labor inflation has been the majority driver of pricing, which is up about 6% this year, with food contributing just about 0.5%.\nSome margin pressures could surface in the back half of the year if average check moderates slightly from Q2's levels, but the broader top-line growth for the remainder of the year aided by these catalysts is expected to keep EPS growth strong. For FY21, McDonald's trades at about 26.6x projected diluted earnings of $9.10, about in line with historical levels, and about 24.2x FY22 earnings of $10.00, as strong margins and close to ~6% growth in revenue can drive ~10% growth in earnings y/y. FY23 could see similar growth rates, up to $10.90 in earnings on about 5.5% growth in revenues. A simple valuation at 26x FY23 earnings provides about 17% upside to $283 in one-year, and while there are other factors in play, the overall strengths within margin, loyalty program uptake, and digital sales acceleration/persistence support that growth and valuation.\nOverall\nMcDonald's has rebounded quickly from 2020's harsh operating environment, even as headwinds to foot traffic have remained in place. Comp sales have not only shown strong growth off of 2020's levels, but solid single and low double-digit growth off of 2019, demonstrating just how strong this recovery has been. The digital channel has proven to be a large driver of system-wide sales, rising 70% to reach $8 billion in 1H; the rollout of the loyalty program in more top markets over the next four to six quarters can help drive digital engagement. While there are some challenges within inflationary pressures from labor and food, margins have expanded, and some slight moderation in margins amid top-line growth can drive revenues and earnings higher over the next couple years, and drive double-digit upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/860032696"}
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