不是那么好割的小韭菜
2021-09-21
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U.S. Stock-Market Tumble Hasn’t Quelled Optimism<blockquote>美国股市暴跌并未平息乐观情绪</blockquote>
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But many investors say there is no better place to be right now.</p><p><blockquote><b>尽管情绪调查显示悲观情绪日益加剧,但许多交易员仍继续看好股市。</b>美国股市正面临自去年 Covid-19 大流行导致市场暴跌以来最不确定的前景。但许多投资者表示,目前没有更好的地方了。</blockquote></p><p> Major U.S. stock indexes sank Monday, with theDow Jones Industrial Average losing more than 600 points, or 1.8%, asconcerns grew that a defaultby real-estate developer China Evergrande Group could spur a widespread retreat from riskier assets. Percolating worries about a slowdown in economic growth, ongoing supply-chain issues andrising deathstied to the Delta variant of the coronavirus added to the volatility.</p><p><blockquote>美国主要股指周一下跌,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌超过 600 点,跌幅 1.8%,原因是人们越来越担心房地产开发商中国恒大集团违约可能会引发风险资产的广泛撤资。对经济增长放缓、持续的供应链问题以及冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株导致的死亡人数上升的担忧加剧了波动性。</blockquote></p><p> For months, investors have been bracing for apullback such as this, warning in some cases that the U.S. stock market had run up too far, too fast. But now, with the Dow down 3.9% month-to-date, some traders say they aren’t concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来,投资者一直在为这样的回调做好准备,在某些情况下警告说,美国股市上涨得太远、太快了。但现在,道琼斯指数本月迄今下跌了 3.9%,一些交易员表示他们并不担心。</blockquote></p><p> “The short-term noise we’re dealing with does not change the fact that we think the economy is on solid footing and that equities still look attractive relative to other assets,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. “We still think the primary market trend over the next 12 months is higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官基思-勒纳(Keith Lerner)说:”我们所面对的短期噪音并不能改变这样一个事实,即我们认为经济基础稳固,相对于其他资产,股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。“我们仍然认为未来 12 个月一级市场趋势会更高”。</blockquote></p><p> That outlook matches the so-called TINA mantra that has carried the market higher for much of the past year, with many investors believing “there is no alternative” to stocks. With yields on other assets such as bonds hovering at such low levels, many investors have been willing to keep buying equities at record-high prices. Even amid the continuing pullback, some investors have said they are only tweaking their stock allocations and strategies rather than ditching equities in favor of other asset classes across the market.</p><p><blockquote>这一前景与过去一年大部分时间里推动市场走高的所谓蒂娜咒语不谋而合,许多投资者认为 “别无选择”,只能选择股票。由于债券等其他资产的收益率徘徊在如此低的水平,许多投资者愿意继续以创纪录的高价购买股票。即使在持续回调的情况下,一些投资者表示,他们只是在调整股票配置和策略,而不是放弃股票,转而转向整个市场的其他资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> Evidence of that mind-set has been apparent in recent stock positioning data, which suggest that investors expect further gains ahead. Last week, for example, data from fund-flow tracker EPFR showed that investors poured the largest amount of money into U.S. stock-focused mutual and exchange-traded funds since March. Their buying spree totaled a net $45.7 billion in the week ended Sept. 15—more than the previous five weeks combined.</p><p><blockquote>这种心态的证据在最近的股票定位数据中显而易见,这表明投资者预计未来将进一步上涨。例如,上周,资金流动追踪机构 EPFR 的数据显示,投资者向专注于美国股票的共同基金和交易所交易基金注入了自 3 月份以来最大量的资金。截至 9 月 15 日当周,他们的购买热潮总计 457 亿美元,超过了前五周的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar sentiment has been visible in U.S. equity futures, where institutional investors’ bullish positioning continues to hover near all-time highs, according to an RBC Capital Markets analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “At current levels,” RBC analysts wrote in a recent note, “this indicator is signaling that investor positioning remains quite euphoric.”</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)对商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)数据的分析显示,美国股票期货也出现了类似的情绪,机构投资者的看涨头寸继续徘徊在历史高点附近。“加拿大皇家银行分析师在最近的一份报告中写道:”在目前的水平上,“这一指标表明投资者的头寸仍然相当乐观。”</blockquote></p><p> Optimistic positioningin U.S. stocks has been evident for months, helping the S&P 500 charge to 54 records this year. But in a striking contrast from much of 2021, current positioning hasn’t been matched by sentiment surveys. Last week, for example, a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that bullish sentiment among traders plunged to its lowest level since July of 2020. About 22% of individual investors reported that they expect stocks to rise over the next six months—down from a 2021 high of nearly 57% in April.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来,美国股市的乐观头寸一直很明显,帮助标普500今年创下 54 项纪录。但与 2021 年的大部分时间形成鲜明对比的是,目前的定位并没有得到情绪调查的匹配。例如,上周美国个人投资者协会的一项调查显示,交易员的看涨情绪跌至 2020 年 7 月以来的最低水平。约 22% 的个人投资者表示,他们预计股市将在未来六个月内上涨,低于 4 月份近 57% 的 2021 年高点。</blockquote></p><p> Similar pessimism was recently captured in a survey by IHS Markit of 100 institutional investors employed by firms whose assets under management collectively total about $845 billion. That survey, conducted in September, found sinking risk appetite among the group, with more investors expecting returns to fall, rather than rise, over the next 30 days.</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 最近对管理资产总额约为 8,450 亿美元的公司雇佣的 100 家机构投资者进行了一项调查,也捕捉到了类似的悲观情绪。该调查于 9 月份进行,发现该集团的风险偏好正在下降,越来越多的投资者预计未来 30 天内回报将下降而不是上升。</blockquote></p><p> The disconnect between sentiment surveys and positioning data underscores a strange year in financial markets and the “complete divergence in terms of what’s in people’s heads and what they are actually doing,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行(RBC)美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)说,情绪调查与定位数据之间的脱节凸显了金融市场的奇怪一年,以及 “人们的想法与实际行动之间的完全背离”。</blockquote></p><p> “I think we’ve seen high levels of nervousness emerge, but we haven’t seen high levels of fear emerge,” Ms. Calvasina continued. “Fear is what causes the positioning to come down. Nervousness causes them to move things around.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳女士继续说道:”我认为我们已经看到了高度的紧张情绪,但我们还没有看到高度的恐惧情绪。“恐惧是导致定位下降的原因。紧张会导致他们四处移动”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, some investors say they have been using the continuing weakness to reallocate money into other sectors or strategize about plays later in the year. Mr. Lerner of Truist, for example, said that small-cap stocks are on his radar for the fourth quarter, in part because of the recent weakness of the group. “The setup is improving based on negative sentiment, attractive valuations and strong earnings trends,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>目前,一些投资者表示,他们一直在利用持续的疲软将资金重新分配到其他行业,或制定今年晚些时候的策略。例如,Truist 的勒纳先生表示,小盘股是他第四季度关注的焦点,部分原因是该集团最近的疲软。“他说:”基于负面情绪、有吸引力的估值和强劲的盈利趋势,情况正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, recent data from a Bank of America Global Research survey showed that the average cash balance among fund managers now sits at 4.3%, only a slight increase from the 4.2% recorded the month before. Meanwhile, a net 50% of fund managers are overweight global equities.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,美国银行全球研究调查的最新数据显示,基金经理的平均现金余额目前为4.3%,仅比上个月的4.2%略有增加。与此同时,净50%的基金经理是跑赢大盘全球股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “One of the things that we’ve been talking about is this allocation toward equities, which seems like a very bullish outlook,” said David A. Jones, director of global investment strategy at BofA Securities. “But really, our feeling is that it’s a result of people having nowhere else to invest. With yields as low as they are and spreads as tight as they are, there is really no alternative.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行证券全球投资策略总监戴维-琼斯(David A. Jones)说:”我们一直在谈论的事情之一就是对股票的配置,这似乎是一个非常乐观的前景。“但实际上,我们的感觉是,这是人们无处可去的结果。收益率如此之低,利差如此之窄,真的别无选择。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stock-Market Tumble Hasn’t Quelled Optimism<blockquote>美国股市暴跌并未平息乐观情绪</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stock-Market Tumble Hasn’t Quelled Optimism<blockquote>美国股市暴跌并未平息乐观情绪</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Many traders continue to be bullish on stocks, even as sentiment surveys show growing pessimism.</b> U.S. stocks are facing their most uncertain outlook since the Covid-19 pandemic sent the market tumbling last year. But many investors say there is no better place to be right now.</p><p><blockquote><b>尽管情绪调查显示悲观情绪日益加剧,但许多交易员仍继续看好股市。</b>美国股市正面临自去年 Covid-19 大流行导致市场暴跌以来最不确定的前景。但许多投资者表示,目前没有更好的地方了。</blockquote></p><p> Major U.S. stock indexes sank Monday, with theDow Jones Industrial Average losing more than 600 points, or 1.8%, asconcerns grew that a defaultby real-estate developer China Evergrande Group could spur a widespread retreat from riskier assets. Percolating worries about a slowdown in economic growth, ongoing supply-chain issues andrising deathstied to the Delta variant of the coronavirus added to the volatility.</p><p><blockquote>美国主要股指周一下跌,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌超过 600 点,跌幅 1.8%,原因是人们越来越担心房地产开发商中国恒大集团违约可能会引发风险资产的广泛撤资。对经济增长放缓、持续的供应链问题以及冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株导致的死亡人数上升的担忧加剧了波动性。</blockquote></p><p> For months, investors have been bracing for apullback such as this, warning in some cases that the U.S. stock market had run up too far, too fast. But now, with the Dow down 3.9% month-to-date, some traders say they aren’t concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来,投资者一直在为这样的回调做好准备,在某些情况下警告说,美国股市上涨得太远、太快了。但现在,道琼斯指数本月迄今下跌了 3.9%,一些交易员表示他们并不担心。</blockquote></p><p> “The short-term noise we’re dealing with does not change the fact that we think the economy is on solid footing and that equities still look attractive relative to other assets,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. “We still think the primary market trend over the next 12 months is higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官基思-勒纳(Keith Lerner)说:”我们所面对的短期噪音并不能改变这样一个事实,即我们认为经济基础稳固,相对于其他资产,股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。“我们仍然认为未来 12 个月一级市场趋势会更高”。</blockquote></p><p> That outlook matches the so-called TINA mantra that has carried the market higher for much of the past year, with many investors believing “there is no alternative” to stocks. With yields on other assets such as bonds hovering at such low levels, many investors have been willing to keep buying equities at record-high prices. Even amid the continuing pullback, some investors have said they are only tweaking their stock allocations and strategies rather than ditching equities in favor of other asset classes across the market.</p><p><blockquote>这一前景与过去一年大部分时间里推动市场走高的所谓蒂娜咒语不谋而合,许多投资者认为 “别无选择”,只能选择股票。由于债券等其他资产的收益率徘徊在如此低的水平,许多投资者愿意继续以创纪录的高价购买股票。即使在持续回调的情况下,一些投资者表示,他们只是在调整股票配置和策略,而不是放弃股票,转而转向整个市场的其他资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> Evidence of that mind-set has been apparent in recent stock positioning data, which suggest that investors expect further gains ahead. Last week, for example, data from fund-flow tracker EPFR showed that investors poured the largest amount of money into U.S. stock-focused mutual and exchange-traded funds since March. Their buying spree totaled a net $45.7 billion in the week ended Sept. 15—more than the previous five weeks combined.</p><p><blockquote>这种心态的证据在最近的股票定位数据中显而易见,这表明投资者预计未来将进一步上涨。例如,上周,资金流动追踪机构 EPFR 的数据显示,投资者向专注于美国股票的共同基金和交易所交易基金注入了自 3 月份以来最大量的资金。截至 9 月 15 日当周,他们的购买热潮总计 457 亿美元,超过了前五周的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar sentiment has been visible in U.S. equity futures, where institutional investors’ bullish positioning continues to hover near all-time highs, according to an RBC Capital Markets analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “At current levels,” RBC analysts wrote in a recent note, “this indicator is signaling that investor positioning remains quite euphoric.”</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)对商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)数据的分析显示,美国股票期货也出现了类似的情绪,机构投资者的看涨头寸继续徘徊在历史高点附近。“加拿大皇家银行分析师在最近的一份报告中写道:”在目前的水平上,“这一指标表明投资者的头寸仍然相当乐观。”</blockquote></p><p> Optimistic positioningin U.S. stocks has been evident for months, helping the S&P 500 charge to 54 records this year. But in a striking contrast from much of 2021, current positioning hasn’t been matched by sentiment surveys. Last week, for example, a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that bullish sentiment among traders plunged to its lowest level since July of 2020. About 22% of individual investors reported that they expect stocks to rise over the next six months—down from a 2021 high of nearly 57% in April.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来,美国股市的乐观头寸一直很明显,帮助标普500今年创下 54 项纪录。但与 2021 年的大部分时间形成鲜明对比的是,目前的定位并没有得到情绪调查的匹配。例如,上周美国个人投资者协会的一项调查显示,交易员的看涨情绪跌至 2020 年 7 月以来的最低水平。约 22% 的个人投资者表示,他们预计股市将在未来六个月内上涨,低于 4 月份近 57% 的 2021 年高点。</blockquote></p><p> Similar pessimism was recently captured in a survey by IHS Markit of 100 institutional investors employed by firms whose assets under management collectively total about $845 billion. That survey, conducted in September, found sinking risk appetite among the group, with more investors expecting returns to fall, rather than rise, over the next 30 days.</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit 最近对管理资产总额约为 8,450 亿美元的公司雇佣的 100 家机构投资者进行了一项调查,也捕捉到了类似的悲观情绪。该调查于 9 月份进行,发现该集团的风险偏好正在下降,越来越多的投资者预计未来 30 天内回报将下降而不是上升。</blockquote></p><p> The disconnect between sentiment surveys and positioning data underscores a strange year in financial markets and the “complete divergence in terms of what’s in people’s heads and what they are actually doing,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行(RBC)美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)说,情绪调查与定位数据之间的脱节凸显了金融市场的奇怪一年,以及 “人们的想法与实际行动之间的完全背离”。</blockquote></p><p> “I think we’ve seen high levels of nervousness emerge, but we haven’t seen high levels of fear emerge,” Ms. Calvasina continued. “Fear is what causes the positioning to come down. Nervousness causes them to move things around.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳女士继续说道:”我认为我们已经看到了高度的紧张情绪,但我们还没有看到高度的恐惧情绪。“恐惧是导致定位下降的原因。紧张会导致他们四处移动”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, some investors say they have been using the continuing weakness to reallocate money into other sectors or strategize about plays later in the year. Mr. Lerner of Truist, for example, said that small-cap stocks are on his radar for the fourth quarter, in part because of the recent weakness of the group. “The setup is improving based on negative sentiment, attractive valuations and strong earnings trends,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>目前,一些投资者表示,他们一直在利用持续的疲软将资金重新分配到其他行业,或制定今年晚些时候的策略。例如,Truist 的勒纳先生表示,小盘股是他第四季度关注的焦点,部分原因是该集团最近的疲软。“他说:”基于负面情绪、有吸引力的估值和强劲的盈利趋势,情况正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, recent data from a Bank of America Global Research survey showed that the average cash balance among fund managers now sits at 4.3%, only a slight increase from the 4.2% recorded the month before. Meanwhile, a net 50% of fund managers are overweight global equities.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,美国银行全球研究调查的最新数据显示,基金经理的平均现金余额目前为4.3%,仅比上个月的4.2%略有增加。与此同时,净50%的基金经理是跑赢大盘全球股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “One of the things that we’ve been talking about is this allocation toward equities, which seems like a very bullish outlook,” said David A. Jones, director of global investment strategy at BofA Securities. “But really, our feeling is that it’s a result of people having nowhere else to invest. With yields as low as they are and spreads as tight as they are, there is really no alternative.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行证券全球投资策略总监戴维-琼斯(David A. Jones)说:”我们一直在谈论的事情之一就是对股票的配置,这似乎是一个非常乐观的前景。“但实际上,我们的感觉是,这是人们无处可去的结果。收益率如此之低,利差如此之窄,真的别无选择。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-tumble-hasnt-quelled-optimism-11632216601?mod=rss_markets_main\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-tumble-hasnt-quelled-optimism-11632216601?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163114123","content_text":"Many traders continue to be bullish on stocks, even as sentiment surveys show growing pessimism.\n\nU.S. stocks are facing their most uncertain outlook since the Covid-19 pandemic sent the market tumbling last year. But many investors say there is no better place to be right now.\nMajor U.S. stock indexes sank Monday, with theDow Jones Industrial Average losing more than 600 points, or 1.8%, asconcerns grew that a defaultby real-estate developer China Evergrande Group could spur a widespread retreat from riskier assets. Percolating worries about a slowdown in economic growth, ongoing supply-chain issues andrising deathstied to the Delta variant of the coronavirus added to the volatility.\nFor months, investors have been bracing for apullback such as this, warning in some cases that the U.S. stock market had run up too far, too fast. But now, with the Dow down 3.9% month-to-date, some traders say they aren’t concerned.\n“The short-term noise we’re dealing with does not change the fact that we think the economy is on solid footing and that equities still look attractive relative to other assets,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. “We still think the primary market trend over the next 12 months is higher.”\nThat outlook matches the so-called TINA mantra that has carried the market higher for much of the past year, with many investors believing “there is no alternative” to stocks. With yields on other assets such as bonds hovering at such low levels, many investors have been willing to keep buying equities at record-high prices. Even amid the continuing pullback, some investors have said they are only tweaking their stock allocations and strategies rather than ditching equities in favor of other asset classes across the market.\nEvidence of that mind-set has been apparent in recent stock positioning data, which suggest that investors expect further gains ahead. Last week, for example, data from fund-flow tracker EPFR showed that investors poured the largest amount of money into U.S. stock-focused mutual and exchange-traded funds since March. Their buying spree totaled a net $45.7 billion in the week ended Sept. 15—more than the previous five weeks combined.\nSimilar sentiment has been visible in U.S. equity futures, where institutional investors’ bullish positioning continues to hover near all-time highs, according to an RBC Capital Markets analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “At current levels,” RBC analysts wrote in a recent note, “this indicator is signaling that investor positioning remains quite euphoric.”\nOptimistic positioningin U.S. stocks has been evident for months, helping the S&P 500 charge to 54 records this year. But in a striking contrast from much of 2021, current positioning hasn’t been matched by sentiment surveys. Last week, for example, a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that bullish sentiment among traders plunged to its lowest level since July of 2020. About 22% of individual investors reported that they expect stocks to rise over the next six months—down from a 2021 high of nearly 57% in April.\nSimilar pessimism was recently captured in a survey by IHS Markit of 100 institutional investors employed by firms whose assets under management collectively total about $845 billion. That survey, conducted in September, found sinking risk appetite among the group, with more investors expecting returns to fall, rather than rise, over the next 30 days.\nThe disconnect between sentiment surveys and positioning data underscores a strange year in financial markets and the “complete divergence in terms of what’s in people’s heads and what they are actually doing,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC.\n“I think we’ve seen high levels of nervousness emerge, but we haven’t seen high levels of fear emerge,” Ms. Calvasina continued. “Fear is what causes the positioning to come down. Nervousness causes them to move things around.”\nFor now, some investors say they have been using the continuing weakness to reallocate money into other sectors or strategize about plays later in the year. Mr. Lerner of Truist, for example, said that small-cap stocks are on his radar for the fourth quarter, in part because of the recent weakness of the group. “The setup is improving based on negative sentiment, attractive valuations and strong earnings trends,” he said.\nMeanwhile, recent data from a Bank of America Global Research survey showed that the average cash balance among fund managers now sits at 4.3%, only a slight increase from the 4.2% recorded the month before. Meanwhile, a net 50% of fund managers are overweight global equities.\n“One of the things that we’ve been talking about is this allocation toward equities, which seems like a very bullish outlook,” said David A. Jones, director of global investment strategy at BofA Securities. “But really, our feeling is that it’s a result of people having nowhere else to invest. With yields as low as they are and spreads as tight as they are, there is really no alternative.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/860748911"}
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