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2021-09-20
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The One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote>
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It’s called the 50-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街发现了比缩减、斧头和传染病更可怕的东西。它被称为50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> The predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，华尔街的大佬们继续预测末日即将来临。回调的原因有很多：股市上涨时间太长，上涨太平稳，美联储即将取消帮助支撑市场上涨的债券购买，税收即将上升，经济数据正在放缓。没有一个真正留下痕迹。</blockquote></p><p> But then the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.</p><p><blockquote>但随后标准普尔500指数本周下跌0.6%，至4432.99点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%，至34,584.88点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%，至15,043.97点。对于标普500来说，这是自6月18日以来首次收盘价低于50日移动平均线——这是前50天收盘价的技术指标，通常最终成为支撑位或阻力位，目前位于4436.35。对于交易者来说，这是非常可怕的。</blockquote></p><p> That the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>下跌也发生在期权到期日——期权押注到期并展期，通常是波动较大的一天——也让这一时刻令人担忧。自5月份以来，期权到期一直是标普500在反弹走高之前快速测试50日均线的时候。当我说快速时，我的意思是快速，因为指数通常需要一天，也许两天才能反弹。</blockquote></p><p> “The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”</p><p><blockquote>Instinet的案头策略师弗兰克·卡佩莱里(Frank Cappelleri)写道：“每次回撤时，我们都会对50日MA的讨论进行猛烈抨击。”“虽然我们可能已经厌倦了听到这个消息，但围绕这条线的逢低买入一直是一个真实的现象。”</blockquote></p><p> This time has a different feel to it. The S&P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”</p><p><blockquote>这次有不同的感觉。Bay Crest Partners首席市场技术员Jonathan Krinsky指出，标普500的停留时间接近50天，时间更长。它已经在它附近徘徊了大约六个交易日，没有大幅下跌或大幅反弹。Krinsky写道：“与之前的快速‘V形’下跌相比，当前的格局看起来更像是50日均线的盘整。”“我们要说的是，我们目前到达这里的方式感觉与过去四到五次有点不同。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，克林斯基承认，收盘价低于50日线还不足以引起恐慌。这是因为标普500已经有218天没有两次收盘低于平均水平，这是自1990年以来第二长的连续纪录。在周一交易结束之前，我们不会知道这一连胜是否会被打破。</blockquote></p><p> The market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场愿意的话，它有很多借口打破50天。也许陷入困境的中国房地产开发商恒大（股票代码：3333.Hong Kong）将成为雷曼时刻，并拖累世界市场。也许美联储会让所有人大吃一惊，并在下周开始缩减规模。也许有什么东西潜伏在那里，就像古老童话中的芭芭雅嘎，也许它看起来很像山谬·里维。</blockquote></p><p> But perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许9月份的所有疲软和担忧都是一件好事，为市场的下一轮上涨做好了准备。Ned Davis Research的Tim Hayes在评论MSCI各国世界指数时写道：“ACWI再次超卖，市场情绪也不太乐观。”“市场面对9月份负面季节性的韧性可能是对第四季度转向有利的季节性趋势做出看涨反应的预演。”</blockquote></p><p> We just have to get there first.</p><p><blockquote>我们只需要先到那里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street has found something scarier than tapering,axes,and contagion. It’s called the 50-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街发现了比缩减、斧头和传染病更可怕的东西。它被称为50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> The predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，华尔街的大佬们继续预测末日即将来临。回调的原因有很多：股市上涨时间太长，上涨太平稳，美联储即将取消帮助支撑市场上涨的债券购买，税收即将上升，经济数据正在放缓。没有一个真正留下痕迹。</blockquote></p><p> But then the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.</p><p><blockquote>但随后标准普尔500指数本周下跌0.6%，至4432.99点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%，至34,584.88点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%，至15,043.97点。对于标普500来说，这是自6月18日以来首次收盘价低于50日移动平均线——这是前50天收盘价的技术指标，通常最终成为支撑位或阻力位，目前位于4436.35。对于交易者来说，这是非常可怕的。</blockquote></p><p> That the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>下跌也发生在期权到期日——期权押注到期并展期，通常是波动较大的一天——也让这一时刻令人担忧。自5月份以来，期权到期一直是标普500在反弹走高之前快速测试50日均线的时候。当我说快速时，我的意思是快速，因为指数通常需要一天，也许两天才能反弹。</blockquote></p><p> “The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”</p><p><blockquote>Instinet的案头策略师弗兰克·卡佩莱里(Frank Cappelleri)写道：“每次回撤时，我们都会对50日MA的讨论进行猛烈抨击。”“虽然我们可能已经厌倦了听到这个消息，但围绕这条线的逢低买入一直是一个真实的现象。”</blockquote></p><p> This time has a different feel to it. The S&P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”</p><p><blockquote>这次有不同的感觉。Bay Crest Partners首席市场技术员Jonathan Krinsky指出，标普500的停留时间接近50天，时间更长。它已经在它附近徘徊了大约六个交易日，没有大幅下跌或大幅反弹。Krinsky写道：“与之前的快速‘V形’下跌相比，当前的格局看起来更像是50日均线的盘整。”“我们要说的是，我们目前到达这里的方式感觉与过去四到五次有点不同。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，克林斯基承认，收盘价低于50日线还不足以引起恐慌。这是因为标普500已经有218天没有两次收盘低于平均水平，这是自1990年以来第二长的连续纪录。在周一交易结束之前，我们不会知道这一连胜是否会被打破。</blockquote></p><p> The market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场愿意的话，它有很多借口打破50天。也许陷入困境的中国房地产开发商恒大（股票代码：3333.Hong Kong）将成为雷曼时刻，并拖累世界市场。也许美联储会让所有人大吃一惊，并在下周开始缩减规模。也许有什么东西潜伏在那里，就像古老童话中的芭芭雅嘎，也许它看起来很像山谬·里维。</blockquote></p><p> But perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许9月份的所有疲软和担忧都是一件好事，为市场的下一轮上涨做好了准备。Ned Davis Research的Tim Hayes在评论MSCI各国世界指数时写道：“ACWI再次超卖，市场情绪也不太乐观。”“市场面对9月份负面季节性的韧性可能是对第四季度转向有利的季节性趋势做出看涨反应的预演。”</blockquote></p><p> We just have to get there first.</p><p><blockquote>我们只需要先到那里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-falls-because-theres-something-scarier-than-taxes-tapers-and-contagion-51631925838?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-falls-because-theres-something-scarier-than-taxes-tapers-and-contagion-51631925838?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196172424","content_text":"Wall Street has found something scarier than tapering,axes,and contagion. It’s called the 50-day moving average.\nThe predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.\nBut then the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.\nThat the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.\n“The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”\nThis time has a different feel to it. The S&P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”\nStill, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.\nThe market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.\nBut perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”\nWe just have to get there first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/860908599"}
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