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2021-09-29

Apple is Healthy for portfolio too !

Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>

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If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.<blockquote>如果您有长期投资视野，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票永远不会是一个糟糕的时机。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到 5000 亿美元、1 万亿美元或 2 万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，苹果公司已经突破了这一障碍。未来，我们将讨论 AAPL 市值达到 5 万亿美元。不要用过去时态来看待 AAPL，它是一家经历了多次股票分割并成长为一家价值 2.43 万亿美元的公司的公司。AAPL 是美国最受喜爱的公司之一，在过去 12 个月 (TTM) 中产生了 947.7 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)，5 年平均自由现金流为 674.9 亿美元。AAPL 是一家毛利率为 41.66% 的公司，利润率为 26.24%，这与 TTM 中 868 亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看 AAPL 在过去十年中为其股东做了什么，他们回购了 95.9 亿股股票，即公司 36.58%，同时支付了 1,134 亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了 AAPL 之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买 AAPL 股票永远不会是糟糕的时机。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD<blockquote>资料来源：TD</blockquote> Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders<blockquote>了解为什么苹果股票回购对股东很重要</blockquote> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.<blockquote>多年来，我一直在写关于AAPL的文章，也阅读了许多关于AAPL的关于Seeking Alpha的文章。总是有人评论说蒂姆·库克（苹果首席执行官）和卢卡·梅斯特里（苹果首席财务官）是无能的，对公司的财务管理不善，回购是没有用的。我从未见过一个管理团队和董事会像 AAPL 团队那样关心股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。我不知道有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这一数额的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple<blockquote>资料来源：苹果</blockquote> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.<blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由发行额外股票，否则在我看来，随着当前股东所有权被稀释，这是最大的危险信号之一。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股流通股，而你持有100股，你就拥有该公司1%的股份。如果 ABC 发行 2,500 股股票来筹集资金，则现在有 12,500 股流通股，您在该公司的所有权将自动稀释至 0.80%。如果 ABC 利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行 2,500 股，而是在公开市场上回购 2,500 股，ABC 将剩下 7,500 股流通股。您在 ABC 的股权将会增加，因为您的 100 股现在相当于该公司的 1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分散在更少的股票上。假设，如果 ABC 产生 1,000,000 美元的收入和 100,000 美元的收益，基于 10,000 股股票，ABC 的每股将产生 100 美元的收入和每股 10 美元的收益。通过发行更多股票并将流通股数量增加到 12,500 股，每股现在将产生 80 美元的收入和 8 美元的每股收益。通过回购 2,500 股而不是发行 2,500 股，ABC 现在将产生 133.33 美元的收入和每股收益 13.33 美元，因为他们只有 7,500 股流通股。</blockquote> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.<blockquote>当苹果公司回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加 AAPL 持有这些股份的比例来奖励股东。AAPL 产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回购和股息产生的部分现金返还股东来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL 的 TTM 自由现金流每年从 416.8 亿美元增加到 947.7 亿美元。2021 财年远高于 AAPL 前几年，因此如果使用 5 年平均水平，FCF 同比从 416.8 亿美元增加到 674.9 亿美元。AAPL的回购不是操纵，不应被视为财务管理不善。过去 7 个季度，AAPL 以平均每季度 197.1 亿美元的速度回购了 1380 亿美元的股票。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股本头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该受到庆祝，因为 AAPL 创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Everything Money<blockquote>资料来源：Everything Money</blockquote> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股票稀释的一个完美例子。截至 2011 年底，TSLA 共有 5.227 亿股已发行普通股。截至上一份报告，TSLA 拥有 9.84 亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉已将股东稀释了 88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了 1.762 亿股新股，在此期间将其股东稀释了 21.81%。发行股票并不总是坏事，公平地说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA在TTM的收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增幅为10,585%。尽管特斯拉在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中已被稀释了 88.15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.<blockquote>2021年4月28日，AAPL宣布其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。根据目前 2.43 万亿美元的估值，AAPL 董事会增加了足够的资本，在公开市场上额外回购了 3.7% 的股票。根据过去十年的数据，随着 FFC 的资本配置力度的增加，AAPL 将继续对股东友好。我很震惊有人会认为这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的 AAPL 股权百分比。AAPL 致力于通过回购增加股东价值，这是股东可以继续期待的，因为 AAPL 在每一个新的历史最高股价中不断回购股票。</blockquote> Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback<blockquote>苹果的估值已经成熟，可以进行新的投资，尤其是在最近的回调之后</blockquote> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.<blockquote>AAPL 股价于 2021 年 6 月 28 日交易价格为 134.78 美元，并于 2021 年 9 月 7 日达到 156.68 美元。自那以后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在21年9月20日回落至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。9/24321 交易结束时，AAPL 股价已从近期低点反弹，收于 146.92 美元。在查看了 AAPL 的指标并回顾了 1 年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次重大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在2021年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在2021年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏季，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的每一次回调都创造了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL 又创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，AAPL 有望报告其最好的一年运营，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的良好切入点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.<blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技公司的同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜。市销率是将股票价格与每股收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL 的市盈率为 7.13，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 13.44，GOOGL 的市盈率为 8.71。GOOGL是集团中市盈率最低的，为3.89。市盈率用于根据公司产生的收益来评估公司的股价，并表明投资者愿意为每 1 美元的收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL 的市盈率为 28.53，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 36.87，AMZN 的市盈率为 58.54，GOOGL 的市盈率为 30.48。我看股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 135.04%，而 MSFT 为 43.15%，AMZN 为 25.64%，GOOGL 为 26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 25.64 倍，MSFT 的市盈率为 40.09 倍，AMZN 的市盈率为 244.80 倍，GOOGL的市盈率为 32.46 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?<blockquote>AAPL 是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下添加的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回落时，她买了更多的苹果。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买 AAPL 股票，我相信他在回调期间也借此机会增持了 AAPL。我认为 AAPL 仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL 的交易价格仅为 FCF 的 25.64 倍，市盈率为 28.53，而市场平均水平为 34.75。AAPL 在从其股权中产生利润方面做得非常出色，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote> What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?<blockquote>我们对 10 月底公布的 AAPL 2021 年第四季度有何看法？</blockquote> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.<blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度在每年的9月30日结束。当 AAPL 在 10 月底公布收益时，他们将公布第四季度和 2021 财年的数据。AAPL 为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL创造了2825.6亿美元的收入，1176.6亿美元的毛利润和741.3亿美元的净利润。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别中的表现都超过了2020财年。AAPL 预测 2021 年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使其第四季度收入至少达到 711.6 亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果 AAPL 能够将 40% 的收入转化为毛利润，25% 转化为净利润，那么到 2021 年，他们将实现 3537.2 亿美元的收入、1461.2 亿美元的毛利润和 919.2 亿美元的净利润。</blockquote> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.<blockquote>我把每一项投资都看作是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常现象。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对第四季度收益看涨期权和 2022 财年预测有何看法。从我下面构建的图表来看，AAPL 在 2016 年和 2017 年的一段时间里，其收入低于 2015 年，然后才加速增长。假设，如果 AAPL 的收入碰巧在一两年内达到顶峰，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对 AAPL 有长期投资期限。从2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入 2021 年底，AAPL 将报告一个井喷的一年，我们将对 2022 年做出一些预测。AAPL 董事会已将股票回购计划增加了 900 亿美元，而且没有迹象表明 AAPL 正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入 AAPL 股票的机会。AAPL 是我见过的所有公司中产生最多自由现金流的公司，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，AAPL 值得买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.<blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为 AAPL 第四季度收益和创纪录的 2021 年业绩将于 10 月底公布。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入将同比增长28.85%，净利润将同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和 FCF 价格明显低于 MSFT、AMZN 和GOOGL。AAPL 继续通过将其自由现金流的一定比例分配给回购和股息来为股东创造价值。AAPL 不断创新，发布新产品，继续拓展服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划追加了 900 亿美元。我认为 AAPL 是一项出色的长期投资，目前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 22:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li> <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li> <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Stephen Lam/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度收益，苹果有望实现井喷式的一年，打破之前从总收入到净利润的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大价值。</li><li>与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的时间范围，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.<blockquote>如果您有长期投资视野，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票永远不会是一个糟糕的时机。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到 5000 亿美元、1 万亿美元或 2 万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，苹果公司已经突破了这一障碍。未来，我们将讨论 AAPL 市值达到 5 万亿美元。不要用过去时态来看待 AAPL，它是一家经历了多次股票分割并成长为一家价值 2.43 万亿美元的公司的公司。AAPL 是美国最受喜爱的公司之一，在过去 12 个月 (TTM) 中产生了 947.7 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)，5 年平均自由现金流为 674.9 亿美元。AAPL 是一家毛利率为 41.66% 的公司，利润率为 26.24%，这与 TTM 中 868 亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看 AAPL 在过去十年中为其股东做了什么，他们回购了 95.9 亿股股票，即公司 36.58%，同时支付了 1,134 亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了 AAPL 之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买 AAPL 股票永远不会是糟糕的时机。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD<blockquote>资料来源：TD</blockquote> Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders<blockquote>了解为什么苹果股票回购对股东很重要</blockquote> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.<blockquote>多年来，我一直在写关于AAPL的文章，也阅读了许多关于AAPL的关于Seeking Alpha的文章。总是有人评论说蒂姆·库克（苹果首席执行官）和卢卡·梅斯特里（苹果首席财务官）是无能的，对公司的财务管理不善，回购是没有用的。我从未见过一个管理团队和董事会像 AAPL 团队那样关心股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。我不知道有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这一数额的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple<blockquote>资料来源：苹果</blockquote> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.<blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由发行额外股票，否则在我看来，随着当前股东所有权被稀释，这是最大的危险信号之一。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股流通股，而你持有100股，你就拥有该公司1%的股份。如果 ABC 发行 2,500 股股票来筹集资金，则现在有 12,500 股流通股，您在该公司的所有权将自动稀释至 0.80%。如果 ABC 利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行 2,500 股，而是在公开市场上回购 2,500 股，ABC 将剩下 7,500 股流通股。您在 ABC 的股权将会增加，因为您的 100 股现在相当于该公司的 1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分散在更少的股票上。假设，如果 ABC 产生 1,000,000 美元的收入和 100,000 美元的收益，基于 10,000 股股票，ABC 的每股将产生 100 美元的收入和每股 10 美元的收益。通过发行更多股票并将流通股数量增加到 12,500 股，每股现在将产生 80 美元的收入和 8 美元的每股收益。通过回购 2,500 股而不是发行 2,500 股，ABC 现在将产生 133.33 美元的收入和每股收益 13.33 美元，因为他们只有 7,500 股流通股。</blockquote> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.<blockquote>当苹果公司回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加 AAPL 持有这些股份的比例来奖励股东。AAPL 产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回购和股息产生的部分现金返还股东来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL 的 TTM 自由现金流每年从 416.8 亿美元增加到 947.7 亿美元。2021 财年远高于 AAPL 前几年，因此如果使用 5 年平均水平，FCF 同比从 416.8 亿美元增加到 674.9 亿美元。AAPL的回购不是操纵，不应被视为财务管理不善。过去 7 个季度，AAPL 以平均每季度 197.1 亿美元的速度回购了 1380 亿美元的股票。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股本头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该受到庆祝，因为 AAPL 创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Everything Money<blockquote>资料来源：Everything Money</blockquote> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股票稀释的一个完美例子。截至 2011 年底，TSLA 共有 5.227 亿股已发行普通股。截至上一份报告，TSLA 拥有 9.84 亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉已将股东稀释了 88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了 1.762 亿股新股，在此期间将其股东稀释了 21.81%。发行股票并不总是坏事，公平地说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA在TTM的收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增幅为10,585%。尽管特斯拉在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中已被稀释了 88.15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.<blockquote>2021年4月28日，AAPL宣布其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。根据目前 2.43 万亿美元的估值，AAPL 董事会增加了足够的资本，在公开市场上额外回购了 3.7% 的股票。根据过去十年的数据，随着 FFC 的资本配置力度的增加，AAPL 将继续对股东友好。我很震惊有人会认为这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的 AAPL 股权百分比。AAPL 致力于通过回购增加股东价值，这是股东可以继续期待的，因为 AAPL 在每一个新的历史最高股价中不断回购股票。</blockquote> Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback<blockquote>苹果的估值已经成熟，可以进行新的投资，尤其是在最近的回调之后</blockquote> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.<blockquote>AAPL 股价于 2021 年 6 月 28 日交易价格为 134.78 美元，并于 2021 年 9 月 7 日达到 156.68 美元。自那以后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在21年9月20日回落至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。9/24321 交易结束时，AAPL 股价已从近期低点反弹，收于 146.92 美元。在查看了 AAPL 的指标并回顾了 1 年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次重大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在2021年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在2021年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏季，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的每一次回调都创造了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL 又创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，AAPL 有望报告其最好的一年运营，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的良好切入点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.<blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技公司的同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜。市销率是将股票价格与每股收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL 的市盈率为 7.13，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 13.44，GOOGL 的市盈率为 8.71。GOOGL是集团中市盈率最低的，为3.89。市盈率用于根据公司产生的收益来评估公司的股价，并表明投资者愿意为每 1 美元的收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL 的市盈率为 28.53，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 36.87，AMZN 的市盈率为 58.54，GOOGL 的市盈率为 30.48。我看股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 135.04%，而 MSFT 为 43.15%，AMZN 为 25.64%，GOOGL 为 26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 25.64 倍，MSFT 的市盈率为 40.09 倍，AMZN 的市盈率为 244.80 倍，GOOGL的市盈率为 32.46 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?<blockquote>AAPL 是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下添加的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回落时，她买了更多的苹果。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买 AAPL 股票，我相信他在回调期间也借此机会增持了 AAPL。我认为 AAPL 仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL 的交易价格仅为 FCF 的 25.64 倍，市盈率为 28.53，而市场平均水平为 34.75。AAPL 在从其股权中产生利润方面做得非常出色，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote> What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?<blockquote>我们对 10 月底公布的 AAPL 2021 年第四季度有何看法？</blockquote> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.<blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度在每年的9月30日结束。当 AAPL 在 10 月底公布收益时，他们将公布第四季度和 2021 财年的数据。AAPL 为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL创造了2825.6亿美元的收入，1176.6亿美元的毛利润和741.3亿美元的净利润。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别中的表现都超过了2020财年。AAPL 预测 2021 年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使其第四季度收入至少达到 711.6 亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果 AAPL 能够将 40% 的收入转化为毛利润，25% 转化为净利润，那么到 2021 年，他们将实现 3537.2 亿美元的收入、1461.2 亿美元的毛利润和 919.2 亿美元的净利润。</blockquote> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.<blockquote>我把每一项投资都看作是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常现象。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对第四季度收益看涨期权和 2022 财年预测有何看法。从我下面构建的图表来看，AAPL 在 2016 年和 2017 年的一段时间里，其收入低于 2015 年，然后才加速增长。假设，如果 AAPL 的收入碰巧在一两年内达到顶峰，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对 AAPL 有长期投资期限。从2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入 2021 年底，AAPL 将报告一个井喷的一年，我们将对 2022 年做出一些预测。AAPL 董事会已将股票回购计划增加了 900 亿美元，而且没有迹象表明 AAPL 正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入 AAPL 股票的机会。AAPL 是我见过的所有公司中产生最多自由现金流的公司，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，AAPL 值得买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.<blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为 AAPL 第四季度收益和创纪录的 2021 年业绩将于 10 月底公布。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入将同比增长28.85%，净利润将同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和 FCF 价格明显低于 MSFT、AMZN 和GOOGL。AAPL 继续通过将其自由现金流的一定比例分配给回购和股息来为股东创造价值。AAPL 不断创新，发布新产品，继续拓展服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划追加了 900 亿美元。我认为 AAPL 是一项出色的长期投资，目前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152246777","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.\nApple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.\nCompared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nI don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.\nSource: TD\nUnderstanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders\nI have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always comments about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.\nSource: Apple\nWhy are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.\nWhen AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.\nSource: Everything Money\nI recently wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.\nApple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback\nShares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the four largest companies in the S&P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.\nSource: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?\nWhat are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?\nAAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.\nI look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)\nConclusion\nAAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1275,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AAPL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/862541730"}