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2021-09-29

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Walmart: Limited Long-Term Returns Under Current Valuations<blockquote>沃尔玛：当前估值下的长期回报有限</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":862747816,"tweetId":"862747816","gmtCreate":1632919886161,"gmtModify":1632919967503,"author":{"id":3569227954325701,"idStr":"3569227954325701","authorId":3569227954325701,"authorIdStr":"3569227954325701","name":"Seuna","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb6c0f011a65d66aae3afb6132a82d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":597,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Oike</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Oike</body></html>","text":"Oike","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862747816","repostId":1123110487,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123110487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632919215,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123110487?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart: Limited Long-Term Returns Under Current Valuations<blockquote>沃尔玛：当前估值下的长期回报有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123110487","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Walmart from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>This article analyzes Walmart from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”).</li> <li>The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency.</li> <li>However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns under these current valuations.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e8f2215d5d0d48a96d96b4323231e0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">sanfel/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>本文从沃尔玛利润可持续性的角度，通过最重要的利润指标：资本回报率（ROCE）来分析沃尔玛。</li><li>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。</li><li>然而，按照目前的价格，它已经达到了全部估值，并且在这些当前估值下提供的长期回报有限。</li></ul>sanfel/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis and Background<blockquote>论文与背景</blockquote> This article analyzes Walmart (WMT) from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (“ROE”) and is more fundamental and important than ROE. Because ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.<blockquote>本文通过最重要的利润指标：资本回报率（“ROCE”），从利润可持续性的角度对沃尔玛（WMT）进行了分析。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（“ROE”），比ROE更基本、更重要。因为ROCE考虑了实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的关键见解。持续的高ROCE是拥有可持续护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid single-digit range under these current valuations. Given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is really a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my&nbsp;last article.<blockquote>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。然而，以目前的价格计算，它已经达到了全部估值，并且提供的长期回报有限。在目前的估值下，预计长期回报将在个位数中间范围内。考虑到业务的一致性、财务实力以及当前低收益的宏观经济环境，正如我在上一篇文章中所说，它确实是国债的良好替代品。</blockquote> Moat and Profitability<blockquote>护城河和盈利能力</blockquote> WMT owns the world’s largest retail chain, operating a chain consisting of thousands of stores both in the US and globally. Its US operation consists mainly of 3,570 supercenters, 374 discount stores, 599 Sam’s Clubs, and 799 Neighborhood Markets. And its global operation consists of more than 6,100 stores.<blockquote>WMT 拥有世界上最大的零售连锁店，在美国和全球经营着由数千家门店组成的连锁店。其在美国的业务主要包括 3570 家超市、374 家折扣店、599 家山姆会员店和 799 家社区市场。其全球业务包括 6,100 多家门店。</blockquote> Its sheer scale forms its most valuable moat. As an example, 70% of the U.S. population live within five miles of a WMT store, and 90% live within 15 minutes drive of one. Such extent of reach and scale provides a level of efficiency, cost-saving, and logistic superiority difficult to match by competitors.<blockquote>它庞大的规模形成了它最有价值的护城河。例如，70%的美国人住在距离WMT商店5英里范围内，90%的人住在距离WMT商店15分钟车程范围内。这样的覆盖范围和规模提供了竞争对手难以匹敌的效率、成本节约和物流优势。</blockquote> Protected by such a wide and durable moat, the business has been boasting a remarkable level of consistent profitability as to be elaborated later. And in the short term, the management is very confident and optimistic about the business. As seen from the chart below, management just raised their outlook guidance for the near year in the most recent earnings release. In terms of the topline, they expect WMT U.S. sales to go up 5% to 6% excluding fuel, and Sam’s Club sales go up 7.5% to 8.5% excluding fuel and tobacco.<blockquote>在如此宽阔而持久的护城河的保护下，该业务一直拥有显著的持续盈利能力，稍后将详细阐述。而在短期内，管理层对业务非常有信心和乐观。从下图可以看出，管理层刚刚在最近的财报发布中提高了来年的前景指引。在营收方面，他们预计 WMT 美国销售额（不包括燃油）将增长 5% 至 6%，山姆会员店销售额（不包括燃油和烟草）将增长 7.5% 至 8.5%。</blockquote> In terms of the bottom line, they expect the consolidated operating income to go up by 9% to 11.5% in constant currency and raised the EPS guidance to $6.20 to $6.35. Finally, the business has been investing and growing its eCommerce aggressively in recent years. Sales from eCommerce have more than doubled, up 103%, over the past two years.<blockquote>就利润而言，他们预计按固定汇率计算，综合经营利润将上涨 9% 至 11.5%，并将每股收益指引上调至 6.20 美元至 6.35 美元。最后，该公司近年来一直在积极投资和发展其电子商务。过去两年，电子商务销售额增长了一倍多，增长了 103%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de9ee9f1cfc2727c374231b29725fc27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WMT 2022 Q2 earnings releases.<blockquote>资料来源：WMT 2022 年第二季度收益发布。</blockquote> Long-term return and ROCE<blockquote>长期回报和ROCE</blockquote> After addressing the debt concern, let’s move on to analyze potential returns. If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner’s earnings, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is “simply” the summation of the owner’s earnings yield (“OEY”) and the perpetual growth rate (“PGR”), i.e.,<blockquote>在解决了债务问题之后，让我们继续分析潜在的回报。如果你和这位作者一样，是一个长期投资者，认可所有者收益、永久增长率和股票债券的概念，那么长期回报就更简单了。它“简单地”是所有者收益收益率（“OEY”）和永久增长率（“PGR”）的总和，即</blockquote> Long-Term ROI = OEY + PGR<blockquote>长期投资回报率 = OEY + PGR</blockquote> Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn’t really matter how the business uses the earnings (payout as dividends, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as WMT has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.<blockquote>因为从长远来看，估值的所有波动都是平均值的（所有运气最终都是平均值）。企业如何使用收益（作为股息支付、存入银行账户或回购股票）并不重要。只要明智地使用（就像WMT过去所做的那样），它将被反映为对企业主的回报。</blockquote> OEY is the owner’s earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner’s earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (“FCF”) as the owner’s earning. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner’s earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~4.1% for WMT (~24.4x price to FCF).<blockquote>OEY 是业主的收入除以入场价。所有的复杂性都在于对所有者收入的估算--企业的实际经济收入，而不是名义上的会计收入。在这里，作为一个粗略而保守的估计，我将只使用自由现金流（“FCF”）作为所有者的收入。从严格意义上讲，所有者的收益应该是自由现金流加上用于推动增长的资本支出部分（即增长资本支出），这是保守的。按当前价格水平，WMT 的 OEY 约为 4.1%（约为 FCF 价格的 24.4 倍）。</blockquote> The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the PGR. For businesses like WMT, I consider the following items capital actually employed:<blockquote>下一个也是更重要的项目是PGR。为了理解和估算它，我们需要首先估算资本回报率（“ROCE”）。请注意，ROCE 不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此可以深入了解企业需要投资多少额外资本才能赚取给定的额外收入——这是估算PGR的关键。对于像 WMT 这样的企业，我考虑资本实际使用的以下项目：</blockquote> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.<blockquote>1、流动资金，包括应付账款、应收款项、存货。这些是他们业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.<blockquote>2.财产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of WMT over the past decade is shown below. As seen, WMT was able to maintain a quite respectable ROCE at the beginning of the decade: on average 23%. To put things in perspective, as detailed in my&nbsp;previous articles&nbsp;for Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are also “only” in the range of 20% to 30%. And also note that the ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.<blockquote>基于上述考虑，WMT过去十年的ROCE如下所示。如图所示，WMT 在本世纪初能够保持相当可观的 ROCE：平均 23%。客观地说，正如我在之前为洛克希德-马丁公司（LMT）和通用动力公司（GD）撰写的文章中所详述的那样，这些几乎享有垄断护城河的国防企业领导者的 ROCE 也 “仅 ”在 20% 到 30% 之间。还要注意的是，ROCE 非常稳定，大多数时候仅在 20% 至 27.5% 之间的狭窄范围内波动——这是拥有稳定持久护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da638b0331bd2193208f6b80cfdf957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> Reinvestment rate and long-term return<blockquote>再投资率和长期回报</blockquote> In the long term, the growth rate is given by: PGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate. We’ve examined OEY and ROCE in the above section already. So the last piece of the puzzle to the long-term return is the reinvestment rate, i.e., the fraction of income that business reinvests in itself to fuel future growth. For WMT, the fraction has been about 5-10% in recent years.<blockquote>从长期来看，增长率由以下公式给出：PGR=ROCE*再投资率。我们已经在上面的章节中研究了 OEY 和 ROCE。因此，长期回报的最后一块拼图是再投资率，即企业再投资于自身以推动未来增长的收入比例。对于WMT，近年来该比例约为5-10%。</blockquote> The following chart shows more details of the capital allocation decisions of the business in recent years. The business is in a very strong financial position, as shown in the chart. It is essentially debt-free thanks to its strong cash generation capability. Its interest coverage (EBIT divided by interest expense) is current than 14.7x. In other words, it only takes less than 6.8% of its EBIT income to cover its interest expenses.<blockquote>下图显示了该业务近年来资本分配决策的更多细节。如图所示，该企业的财务状况非常强劲。由于其强大的现金生成能力，它基本上没有债务。其利息覆盖率（息税前利润除以利息支出）目前是 14.7 倍。换句话说，它只需要不到6.8%的息税前利润来支付利息支出。</blockquote> In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by SP500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and stable return on capital as aforementioned), it only takes about 57% of the operating income to cover its dividend after covering maintenance CAPEx. As a result, WMT enjoys quite a bit of flexibility in terms of capital allocation. It has plenty of organic cash to fuel future growth and it’s a matter of identifying such growth areas (such as its e-commerce in recent years).<blockquote>相比之下，以SP500为代表的整体市场的利息覆盖率约为6倍。同样如图表中的橙色线所示，由于其强大的盈利能力（以及如上所述的稳定资本回报率），在覆盖维护资本支出后，只需要大约57%的经营利润来覆盖其股息。因此，WMT在资本配置方面享有相当大的灵活性。该公司拥有大量的有机现金来推动未来的增长，关键在于确定这些增长领域（如近年来的电子商务）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4856aebfbdb3fb6b38299628cb5fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> With a 23% ROCE, it means that even if WMT reinvests 10% (the upper range in recent years) of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 2.3% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 23% = 2.3%).<blockquote>ROCE 为 23%，这意味着即使 WMT 将其收益的 10%（近年来的上限）再投资以扩大所使用的资本，它也可以保持 2.3% 的 PGR（PGR = ROCE * 再投资收益的比例 = 10% * 23% = 2.3%）。</blockquote> Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~4.1% for WMT, and the PGR is about 2.3%. So the total return in the long term at the current valuation would be a mid-single-digit around 6.4% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.<blockquote>现在，我们已经准备好了这两块拼图来估算长期回报。按目前的价格水平，WMT 的 OEY 估计约为 4.1%，PGR 约为 2.3%。因此，按当前估值计算，长期总回报率将是6.4%左右的中个位数，如下图所示。同样可以看出，即使 ROCE 略有波动，这种波动也不会极大地改变长期回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532927c81a0982204f5b8f63bd2694a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> Conclusion and final thoughts<blockquote>结论和最后的想法</blockquote> This article examines WMT’s profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.<blockquote>本文通过最重要的利润指标来考察 WMT 的利润可持续性： 资本回报率（“ROCE”）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的重要见解。持续的高ROCE是拥有可持续护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. Its ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time over the years – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.<blockquote>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。其ROCE一直非常稳定，多年来大部分时间仅在20%至27.5%之间的狭窄范围内波动——这是拥有稳定持久护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid-single-digit range of about 6.4% under these current valuations, consisting of about 4.1% from the owner’s earnings yield and 2.3% from long-term organic growth.<blockquote>然而，以目前的价格计算，它已经达到了全部估值，并且提供的长期回报有限。在目前的估值下，长期回报率预计在 6.4% 左右的中个位数范围内，其中约 4.1% 来自所有者收益收益率，2.3% 来自长期有机增长。</blockquote> As such, it is certainly not a stock I would recommend to investors mainly seeking capital appreciation. But given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is a solid choice for conservative investors seeking reliable dividend income. In other words, it is a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my&nbsp;last article.<blockquote>因此，我肯定不会向主要寻求资本增值的投资者推荐这只股票。但考虑到业务的一致性、财务实力以及当前低收益率的宏观经济环境，对于寻求可靠股息收入的保守投资者来说，这是一个可靠的选择。换句话说，正如我在上一篇文章中所说，它是国债的良好替代品。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart: Limited Long-Term Returns Under Current Valuations<blockquote>沃尔玛：当前估值下的长期回报有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart: Limited Long-Term Returns Under Current Valuations<blockquote>沃尔玛：当前估值下的长期回报有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-29 20:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>This article analyzes Walmart from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”).</li> <li>The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency.</li> <li>However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns under these current valuations.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e8f2215d5d0d48a96d96b4323231e0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">sanfel/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>本文从沃尔玛利润可持续性的角度，通过最重要的利润指标：资本回报率（ROCE）来分析沃尔玛。</li><li>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。</li><li>然而，按照目前的价格，它已经达到了全部估值，并且在这些当前估值下提供的长期回报有限。</li></ul>sanfel/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis and Background<blockquote>论文与背景</blockquote> This article analyzes Walmart (WMT) from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (“ROE”) and is more fundamental and important than ROE. Because ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.<blockquote>本文通过最重要的利润指标：资本回报率（“ROCE”），从利润可持续性的角度对沃尔玛（WMT）进行了分析。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（“ROE”），比ROE更基本、更重要。因为ROCE考虑了实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的关键见解。持续的高ROCE是拥有可持续护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid single-digit range under these current valuations. Given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is really a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my&nbsp;last article.<blockquote>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。然而，以目前的价格计算，它已经达到了全部估值，并且提供的长期回报有限。在目前的估值下，预计长期回报将在个位数中间范围内。考虑到业务的一致性、财务实力以及当前低收益的宏观经济环境，正如我在上一篇文章中所说，它确实是国债的良好替代品。</blockquote> Moat and Profitability<blockquote>护城河和盈利能力</blockquote> WMT owns the world’s largest retail chain, operating a chain consisting of thousands of stores both in the US and globally. Its US operation consists mainly of 3,570 supercenters, 374 discount stores, 599 Sam’s Clubs, and 799 Neighborhood Markets. And its global operation consists of more than 6,100 stores.<blockquote>WMT 拥有世界上最大的零售连锁店，在美国和全球经营着由数千家门店组成的连锁店。其在美国的业务主要包括 3570 家超市、374 家折扣店、599 家山姆会员店和 799 家社区市场。其全球业务包括 6,100 多家门店。</blockquote> Its sheer scale forms its most valuable moat. As an example, 70% of the U.S. population live within five miles of a WMT store, and 90% live within 15 minutes drive of one. Such extent of reach and scale provides a level of efficiency, cost-saving, and logistic superiority difficult to match by competitors.<blockquote>它庞大的规模形成了它最有价值的护城河。例如，70%的美国人住在距离WMT商店5英里范围内，90%的人住在距离WMT商店15分钟车程范围内。这样的覆盖范围和规模提供了竞争对手难以匹敌的效率、成本节约和物流优势。</blockquote> Protected by such a wide and durable moat, the business has been boasting a remarkable level of consistent profitability as to be elaborated later. And in the short term, the management is very confident and optimistic about the business. As seen from the chart below, management just raised their outlook guidance for the near year in the most recent earnings release. In terms of the topline, they expect WMT U.S. sales to go up 5% to 6% excluding fuel, and Sam’s Club sales go up 7.5% to 8.5% excluding fuel and tobacco.<blockquote>在如此宽阔而持久的护城河的保护下，该业务一直拥有显著的持续盈利能力，稍后将详细阐述。而在短期内，管理层对业务非常有信心和乐观。从下图可以看出，管理层刚刚在最近的财报发布中提高了来年的前景指引。在营收方面，他们预计 WMT 美国销售额（不包括燃油）将增长 5% 至 6%，山姆会员店销售额（不包括燃油和烟草）将增长 7.5% 至 8.5%。</blockquote> In terms of the bottom line, they expect the consolidated operating income to go up by 9% to 11.5% in constant currency and raised the EPS guidance to $6.20 to $6.35. Finally, the business has been investing and growing its eCommerce aggressively in recent years. Sales from eCommerce have more than doubled, up 103%, over the past two years.<blockquote>就利润而言，他们预计按固定汇率计算，综合经营利润将上涨 9% 至 11.5%，并将每股收益指引上调至 6.20 美元至 6.35 美元。最后，该公司近年来一直在积极投资和发展其电子商务。过去两年，电子商务销售额增长了一倍多，增长了 103%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de9ee9f1cfc2727c374231b29725fc27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WMT 2022 Q2 earnings releases.<blockquote>资料来源：WMT 2022 年第二季度收益发布。</blockquote> Long-term return and ROCE<blockquote>长期回报和ROCE</blockquote> After addressing the debt concern, let’s move on to analyze potential returns. If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner’s earnings, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is “simply” the summation of the owner’s earnings yield (“OEY”) and the perpetual growth rate (“PGR”), i.e.,<blockquote>在解决了债务问题之后，让我们继续分析潜在的回报。如果你和这位作者一样，是一个长期投资者，认可所有者收益、永久增长率和股票债券的概念，那么长期回报就更简单了。它“简单地”是所有者收益收益率（“OEY”）和永久增长率（“PGR”）的总和，即</blockquote> Long-Term ROI = OEY + PGR<blockquote>长期投资回报率 = OEY + PGR</blockquote> Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn’t really matter how the business uses the earnings (payout as dividends, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as WMT has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.<blockquote>因为从长远来看，估值的所有波动都是平均值的（所有运气最终都是平均值）。企业如何使用收益（作为股息支付、存入银行账户或回购股票）并不重要。只要明智地使用（就像WMT过去所做的那样），它将被反映为对企业主的回报。</blockquote> OEY is the owner’s earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner’s earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (“FCF”) as the owner’s earning. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner’s earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~4.1% for WMT (~24.4x price to FCF).<blockquote>OEY 是业主的收入除以入场价。所有的复杂性都在于对所有者收入的估算--企业的实际经济收入，而不是名义上的会计收入。在这里，作为一个粗略而保守的估计，我将只使用自由现金流（“FCF”）作为所有者的收入。从严格意义上讲，所有者的收益应该是自由现金流加上用于推动增长的资本支出部分（即增长资本支出），这是保守的。按当前价格水平，WMT 的 OEY 约为 4.1%（约为 FCF 价格的 24.4 倍）。</blockquote> The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the PGR. For businesses like WMT, I consider the following items capital actually employed:<blockquote>下一个也是更重要的项目是PGR。为了理解和估算它，我们需要首先估算资本回报率（“ROCE”）。请注意，ROCE 不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此可以深入了解企业需要投资多少额外资本才能赚取给定的额外收入——这是估算PGR的关键。对于像 WMT 这样的企业，我考虑资本实际使用的以下项目：</blockquote> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.<blockquote>1、流动资金，包括应付账款、应收款项、存货。这些是他们业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.<blockquote>2.财产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of WMT over the past decade is shown below. As seen, WMT was able to maintain a quite respectable ROCE at the beginning of the decade: on average 23%. To put things in perspective, as detailed in my&nbsp;previous articles&nbsp;for Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are also “only” in the range of 20% to 30%. And also note that the ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.<blockquote>基于上述考虑，WMT过去十年的ROCE如下所示。如图所示，WMT 在本世纪初能够保持相当可观的 ROCE：平均 23%。客观地说，正如我在之前为洛克希德-马丁公司（LMT）和通用动力公司（GD）撰写的文章中所详述的那样，这些几乎享有垄断护城河的国防企业领导者的 ROCE 也 “仅 ”在 20% 到 30% 之间。还要注意的是，ROCE 非常稳定，大多数时候仅在 20% 至 27.5% 之间的狭窄范围内波动——这是拥有稳定持久护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da638b0331bd2193208f6b80cfdf957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> Reinvestment rate and long-term return<blockquote>再投资率和长期回报</blockquote> In the long term, the growth rate is given by: PGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate. We’ve examined OEY and ROCE in the above section already. So the last piece of the puzzle to the long-term return is the reinvestment rate, i.e., the fraction of income that business reinvests in itself to fuel future growth. For WMT, the fraction has been about 5-10% in recent years.<blockquote>从长期来看，增长率由以下公式给出：PGR=ROCE*再投资率。我们已经在上面的章节中研究了 OEY 和 ROCE。因此，长期回报的最后一块拼图是再投资率，即企业再投资于自身以推动未来增长的收入比例。对于WMT，近年来该比例约为5-10%。</blockquote> The following chart shows more details of the capital allocation decisions of the business in recent years. The business is in a very strong financial position, as shown in the chart. It is essentially debt-free thanks to its strong cash generation capability. Its interest coverage (EBIT divided by interest expense) is current than 14.7x. In other words, it only takes less than 6.8% of its EBIT income to cover its interest expenses.<blockquote>下图显示了该业务近年来资本分配决策的更多细节。如图所示，该企业的财务状况非常强劲。由于其强大的现金生成能力，它基本上没有债务。其利息覆盖率（息税前利润除以利息支出）目前是 14.7 倍。换句话说，它只需要不到6.8%的息税前利润来支付利息支出。</blockquote> In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by SP500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and stable return on capital as aforementioned), it only takes about 57% of the operating income to cover its dividend after covering maintenance CAPEx. As a result, WMT enjoys quite a bit of flexibility in terms of capital allocation. It has plenty of organic cash to fuel future growth and it’s a matter of identifying such growth areas (such as its e-commerce in recent years).<blockquote>相比之下，以SP500为代表的整体市场的利息覆盖率约为6倍。同样如图表中的橙色线所示，由于其强大的盈利能力（以及如上所述的稳定资本回报率），在覆盖维护资本支出后，只需要大约57%的经营利润来覆盖其股息。因此，WMT在资本配置方面享有相当大的灵活性。该公司拥有大量的有机现金来推动未来的增长，关键在于确定这些增长领域（如近年来的电子商务）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4856aebfbdb3fb6b38299628cb5fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> With a 23% ROCE, it means that even if WMT reinvests 10% (the upper range in recent years) of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 2.3% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 23% = 2.3%).<blockquote>ROCE 为 23%，这意味着即使 WMT 将其收益的 10%（近年来的上限）再投资以扩大所使用的资本，它也可以保持 2.3% 的 PGR（PGR = ROCE * 再投资收益的比例 = 10% * 23% = 2.3%）。</blockquote> Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~4.1% for WMT, and the PGR is about 2.3%. So the total return in the long term at the current valuation would be a mid-single-digit around 6.4% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.<blockquote>现在，我们已经准备好了这两块拼图来估算长期回报。按目前的价格水平，WMT 的 OEY 估计约为 4.1%，PGR 约为 2.3%。因此，按当前估值计算，长期总回报率将是6.4%左右的中个位数，如下图所示。同样可以看出，即使 ROCE 略有波动，这种波动也不会极大地改变长期回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532927c81a0982204f5b8f63bd2694a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> Conclusion and final thoughts<blockquote>结论和最后的想法</blockquote> This article examines WMT’s profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.<blockquote>本文通过最重要的利润指标来考察 WMT 的利润可持续性： 资本回报率（“ROCE”）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的重要见解。持续的高ROCE是拥有可持续护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> The results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. Its ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time over the years – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.<blockquote>结果显示，WMT一直保持着可观的盈利水平，并具有显著的一致性。其ROCE一直非常稳定，多年来大部分时间仅在20%至27.5%之间的狭窄范围内波动——这是拥有稳定持久护城河的企业的标志。</blockquote> However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid-single-digit range of about 6.4% under these current valuations, consisting of about 4.1% from the owner’s earnings yield and 2.3% from long-term organic growth.<blockquote>然而，以目前的价格计算，它已经达到了全部估值，并且提供的长期回报有限。在目前的估值下，长期回报率预计在 6.4% 左右的中个位数范围内，其中约 4.1% 来自所有者收益收益率，2.3% 来自长期有机增长。</blockquote> As such, it is certainly not a stock I would recommend to investors mainly seeking capital appreciation. But given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is a solid choice for conservative investors seeking reliable dividend income. In other words, it is a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my&nbsp;last article.<blockquote>因此，我肯定不会向主要寻求资本增值的投资者推荐这只股票。但考虑到业务的一致性、财务实力以及当前低收益率的宏观经济环境，对于寻求可靠股息收入的保守投资者来说，这是一个可靠的选择。换句话说，正如我在上一篇文章中所说，它是国债的良好替代品。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457596-walmart-stock-limited-long-term-returns-under-current-valuations\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457596-walmart-stock-limited-long-term-returns-under-current-valuations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123110487","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Walmart from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”).\nThe results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency.\nHowever, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns under these current valuations.\n\nsanfel/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThesis and Background\nThis article analyzes Walmart (WMT) from the perspective of its profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (“ROE”) and is more fundamental and important than ROE. Because ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.\nThe results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. However, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid single-digit range under these current valuations. Given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is really a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my last article.\nMoat and Profitability\nWMT owns the world’s largest retail chain, operating a chain consisting of thousands of stores both in the US and globally. Its US operation consists mainly of 3,570 supercenters, 374 discount stores, 599 Sam’s Clubs, and 799 Neighborhood Markets. And its global operation consists of more than 6,100 stores.\nIts sheer scale forms its most valuable moat. As an example, 70% of the U.S. population live within five miles of a WMT store, and 90% live within 15 minutes drive of one. Such extent of reach and scale provides a level of efficiency, cost-saving, and logistic superiority difficult to match by competitors.\nProtected by such a wide and durable moat, the business has been boasting a remarkable level of consistent profitability as to be elaborated later. And in the short term, the management is very confident and optimistic about the business. As seen from the chart below, management just raised their outlook guidance for the near year in the most recent earnings release. In terms of the topline, they expect WMT U.S. sales to go up 5% to 6% excluding fuel, and Sam’s Club sales go up 7.5% to 8.5% excluding fuel and tobacco.\nIn terms of the bottom line, they expect the consolidated operating income to go up by 9% to 11.5% in constant currency and raised the EPS guidance to $6.20 to $6.35. Finally, the business has been investing and growing its eCommerce aggressively in recent years. Sales from eCommerce have more than doubled, up 103%, over the past two years.\nSource: WMT 2022 Q2 earnings releases.\nLong-term return and ROCE\nAfter addressing the debt concern, let’s move on to analyze potential returns. If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner’s earnings, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is “simply” the summation of the owner’s earnings yield (“OEY”) and the perpetual growth rate (“PGR”), i.e.,\nLong-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn’t really matter how the business uses the earnings (payout as dividends, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as WMT has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner’s earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner’s earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (“FCF”) as the owner’s earning. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner’s earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~4.1% for WMT (~24.4x price to FCF).\nThe next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (“ROCE”). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the PGR. For businesses like WMT, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of WMT over the past decade is shown below. As seen, WMT was able to maintain a quite respectable ROCE at the beginning of the decade: on average 23%. To put things in perspective, as detailed in my previous articles for Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are also “only” in the range of 20% to 30%. And also note that the ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nReinvestment rate and long-term return\nIn the long term, the growth rate is given by: PGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate. We’ve examined OEY and ROCE in the above section already. So the last piece of the puzzle to the long-term return is the reinvestment rate, i.e., the fraction of income that business reinvests in itself to fuel future growth. For WMT, the fraction has been about 5-10% in recent years.\nThe following chart shows more details of the capital allocation decisions of the business in recent years. The business is in a very strong financial position, as shown in the chart. It is essentially debt-free thanks to its strong cash generation capability. Its interest coverage (EBIT divided by interest expense) is current than 14.7x. In other words, it only takes less than 6.8% of its EBIT income to cover its interest expenses.\nIn contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by SP500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and stable return on capital as aforementioned), it only takes about 57% of the operating income to cover its dividend after covering maintenance CAPEx. As a result, WMT enjoys quite a bit of flexibility in terms of capital allocation. It has plenty of organic cash to fuel future growth and it’s a matter of identifying such growth areas (such as its e-commerce in recent years).\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nWith a 23% ROCE, it means that even if WMT reinvests 10% (the upper range in recent years) of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 2.3% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 23% = 2.3%).\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~4.1% for WMT, and the PGR is about 2.3%. So the total return in the long term at the current valuation would be a mid-single-digit around 6.4% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha.\nConclusion and final thoughts\nThis article examines WMT’s profit sustainability by the most important profit metric: return on capital employed (“ROCE”). ROCE considers the return of capital actually employed, and therefore provides critical insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. A consistent and high ROCE is the hallmark of a business with a sustainable moat.\nThe results show that WMT has been maintaining a respectable level of profitability with remarkable consistency. Its ROCE has been remarkably consistent, only fluctuating within a narrow range between 20% and 27.5% most of the time over the years – a hallmark of a business with a stable and durable moat.\nHowever, at its current prices, it has reached its full valuation and offers limited long-term returns. A long-term return can be expected in the mid-single-digit range of about 6.4% under these current valuations, consisting of about 4.1% from the owner’s earnings yield and 2.3% from long-term organic growth.\nAs such, it is certainly not a stock I would recommend to investors mainly seeking capital appreciation. But given the consistency of the business, its financial strength, and the current low-yield macroeconomic environment, it is a solid choice for conservative investors seeking reliable dividend income. In other words, it is a good substitute for treasury bonds as argued in my last article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3504,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/862747816"}