FanChen
2021-09-23
Market will coming down?
Three Key Takeaways From The Fed Meeting<blockquote>美联储会议的三大要点</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":863689665,"tweetId":"863689665","gmtCreate":1632385566257,"gmtModify":1632800759414,"author":{"id":4095155251405440,"idStr":"4095155251405440","authorId":4095155251405440,"authorIdStr":"4095155251405440","name":"FanChen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e2bcba4b45a4f3a8e6decd509e326f9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market will coming down?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market will coming down?</p></body></html>","text":"Market will coming down?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863689665","repostId":1134836893,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134836893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632382568,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134836893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Key Takeaways From The Fed Meeting<blockquote>美联储会议的三大要点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134836893","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Confirming what we said in \"It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July\", the FOMC tod","content":"<p>Confirming what we said in \"It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July\", the FOMC today paved the way for a taper start in two months when it said \"the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Furthermore, the projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed an even split among FOMC members between zero and one hike in 2022, slightly above the OIS implied rate.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 今天证实了我们在“官方消息：缩减规模将于 11 月开始，7 月结束”中所说的话，为两个月后开始缩减规模铺平了道路，当时它表示“委员会判断放缓资产购买步伐可能很快就会得到保证。”此外，经济预测摘要 (SEP) 中政策利率的预计路径显示，FOMC 成员在 2022 年加息零到一次之间持平，略高于 OIS 隐含利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004ce37f590af6e0a21f9d975e07868\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"517\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Additionally, the median projection implied three additional hikes each in 2023 and 2024 (for six and half total by end-2024). As shown in the chart above, the market - which is pricing in just 1% Fed Funds rate in 2024 - will have an uphill climb to catch up to the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中值预测意味着 2023 年和 2024 年各加息三次（到 2024 年底总共加息六次半）。如上图所示，市场（预计 2024 年联邦基金利率仅为 1%）将经历一段上坡路，以赶上美联储的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Curiously, in its commentary on the FOMC, Goldman appears to be hinting at a bit of a mutiny inside the Fed: according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius<b>\"our best guess is that Chair Powell did not project a hike in 2022.\"</b>Is Powell about to cede control to the far more hawkish regional Feds?</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，高盛在对 FOMC 的评论中似乎暗示了美联储内部的一点叛变：根据高盛的 Jan Hatzius 的说法<b>“我们最好的猜测是鲍威尔主席预计 2022 年不会加息。”</b>鲍威尔会将控制权让给更加鹰派的地区联邦政府吗？</blockquote></p><p> In its post-mortem of the FOMC, BofA chief economist Michelle Meyer said that on the whole, the Fed meeting was another move in the \"more hawkish direction.\" even if the bank clarified that \"this is still a very dovish Fed that is highly committed to achieving higher inflation and a hot economy. But in the face of supply side constraints and growing signs of persistent inflation, it appears that those objectives could be met earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶在对联邦公开市场委员会的事后分析中表示，总体而言，美联储会议是朝着“更鹰派方向”的又一步。尽管该行澄清称，“这仍然是一个非常鸽派的美联储，高度致力于实现更高的通胀和火热的经济。但面对供应方面的限制和持续通胀的越来越多迹象，这些目标似乎可以更早实现。”</blockquote></p><p> This may explain why Goldman was wildly off in its forecast: as Hatzius notes, \"the median dot implied three additional hikes in 2023 and three more in 2024, implying three and half total hikes through end-2023 (<b>vs two in June; we expected two at this meeting</b>) and six and half hikes through end-2024 (not reported in June;<b>we expected five at this meeting)</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>这可能解释了为什么高盛的预测如此偏离：正如 Hatzius 指出的那样，“中位数意味着 2023 年再加息三次，2024 年再加息三次，这意味着到 2023 年底总共加息三次半（<b>vs 6月份的两个；我们预计这次会议会有两个</b>）以及到 2024 年底加息 6.5（6 月份未报告；<b>我们预计这次会议会有五个）</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p> <i>There were three key takeaways from the meeting:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>会议有三个主要收获：</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. As noted above, taper on track to be announced in November and be completed by mid-year.</b>While the taper signal in the statement was vague – “may soon be warranted” – Chair Powell clarified in the press conference that they could be ready in the upcoming meeting (in November). Hence absent a significant disappointment in the employment data or financial market disruption, this confirms what wesaid two weeks ago, that tapering will begin in November and end in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如上所述，缩减规模计划将于11月宣布，并于年中完成。</b>虽然声明中的缩减信号很模糊——“可能很快就会得到保证”——但鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上澄清说，他们可以在即将举行的会议（11月）上做好准备。因此，在就业数据或金融市场混乱没有出现重大失望的情况下，这证实了我们两周前所说的，即缩减规模将于11月开始，7月结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4884154b330962d6b6fcd98e9c85418\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Committee members are edging toward higher rates:</b>As the Fed's updated dot plot showed, the Committee is now evenly split between the first hike in 2022 or 2023, which brought the median up to 0.25%. The consensus is now for 3 hikes in both 2023 and 2024, leaving rates at the end of the forecast horizon at 1.75%. As Chair Powell noted, this is still decently below the long-run funds rate of 2.5%, which means policy is still accommodative; meanwhile with 2024 OIS still pegged at 1% the market's verdict is no way the Fed can achieve this.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 委员会成员正朝着更高的费率迈进：</b>正如美联储更新的点阵图显示的那样，该委员会现在在 2022 年或 2023 年的首次加息之间平分秋色，这使得中位数达到 0.25%。目前的共识是在 2023 年和 2024 年加息 3 次，预测期末利率为 1.75%。正如鲍威尔主席所指出的，这仍远低于2.5%的长期基金利率，这意味着政策仍然宽松；与此同时，由于 2024 年 OIS 仍固定在 1%，市场认为美联储无法实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f87fc312d1d9568d892ff617c764ed\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"692\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The case of higher inflation is building due to greater supply side constraints:</b>Forecasts were boosted for core inflation modestly and Powell noted that the supply side is constrained and creating challenges for inflation. As BofA notes, \"the Fed has become more concerned about persistent price pressures, although the critical test will be long-run inflation expectations, which remain well anchored. Monitoring the supply side developments will be critical:; the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 由于更大的供应端约束，通胀走高的情况正在形成：</b>核心通胀预测小幅上调，鲍威尔指出，供应端受到限制，给通胀带来挑战。正如美国银行指出的那样，“美联储越来越担心持续的价格压力，尽管关键的考验将是长期通胀预期，而长期通胀预期仍然牢固。监控供应方面的发展将至关重要：；供应方面的商品和劳动力仍然受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5516c94d75fdd3cad63a50f70c800d2\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Market reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场反应</b></blockquote></p><p> The rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish, with the yield curve flattening, 5Y rates 2bps higher & 30Y rates 2bp lower.</p><p><blockquote>利率市场将美联储的声明解读为鹰派，收益率曲线趋平，5年期利率上升2个基点，30年期利率下降2个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d75e049d598d45ef7b365b7217039c\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"556\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This according to BofA, was driven by changes to the dot-plot and communication about tapering. Meanwhile, the US dollar initially sold off following release of the statement but subsequently rallied sharply during Chair Powell’s press conference, finishing the day higher, with lower beta FX (emphasis: EUR) underperforming. A strong probability of a November taper and, in particular, the new hawkish dot plot are likely continue to support USD in the weeks ahead, unless fears about a big policy mistake - one which potentially could force the Fed to proceed with QE - re-emerge as they did in June.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，这是由点阵图的变化和有关缩减规模的沟通推动的。与此同时，美元最初在声明发布后遭到抛售，但随后在鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会上大幅反弹，收盘走高，贝塔外汇（重点：欧元）表现不佳。11 月份缩减货币规模的可能性很大，尤其是新的鹰派点图，可能会在未来几周继续支撑美元，除非对重大政策失误的担忧再次出现——这一失误可能会迫使美联储继续实施量化宽松政策——就像他们在 6 月份所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On the November Taper</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于十一月的锥形</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While the statement was somewhat vague, Chair Powell was clear in the press conference. He noted that the criterion for substantial further progress for price stability has been met and has “all but been met” for employment, even if some cynics pointed out that is hardly the case.</p><p><blockquote>虽然声明有些含糊，但鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上说得很清楚。他指出，价格稳定取得实质性进一步进展的标准已经达到，就业方面 “几乎已经达到”，尽管一些愤世嫉俗者指出情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aed2c94eac690f4eb801af27d8da740\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he would need to see a “good” but not exceptional jobs report in September to feel comfortable announcing tapering at the upcoming meeting in November. Powell was also specific on the path for tapering, noting that the Committee expects to finish tapering by the middle of the year, indicating a preference for a monthly pace for tapering, translating into $15bn every month.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说，他需要在 9 月份看到一份 “良好 ”但并非出色的就业报告，才能在即将于 11 月份举行的会议上宣布缩减就业规模。鲍威尔还具体说明了缩减规模的路径，他指出，该委员会预计将在年中完成缩减规模，这表明他倾向于每月缩减规模，即每月 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hiking is (not) tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>徒步旅行（不是）逐渐减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to 2013, Powell reiterated that the decision to taper is different from the decision to hike, stating that when tapering starts, we will be “well away from satisfying the liftoff test.” Despite similar rhetoric in 2013, it took the bond market months to agree with this take. However, what is clear - at least according to the Fed - is that at the end of the forecast horizon in 2024,<b>rates will still be below the long-run rate forecast, suggesting that policy will be supportive into 2025; one can only imagine what inflation will be then.</b>Powell also emphasized the importance of long-run inflation expectations, arguing that they are higher but mostly back to 2013 levels and not particularly troubling. He reiterated that the goal of FAIT was to push up inflation expectations, which is what has been done. He also mentioned the Fed Board’s Common Inflation Expectations (CIE) measure are at reasonable levels that are consistent with the FOMC’s inflation target.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年类似，鲍威尔重申，缩减规模的决定不同于加息的决定，他表示，当缩减规模开始时，我们将 “远远无法通过起飞测试”。尽管2013年也有类似的言论，但债券市场花了几个月的时间才同意这种观点。然而，至少美联储认为，显而易见的是，在 2024 年预测期限结束时，<b>利率仍将低于长期利率预测，表明政策将在2025年之前保持支持性；人们只能想象那时的通货膨胀会是什么样子。</b>鲍威尔还强调了长期通胀预期的重要性，认为通胀预期较高，但大多回到2013年的水平，并不特别令人担忧。他重申，事实上的目标是推高通胀预期，这就是一直在做的事情。他还提到，美联储理事会的共同通胀预期（CIE）指标处于合理水平，与联邦公开市场委员会的通胀目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transitory inflation is (not) permanent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>暂时性通货膨胀（不是）永久性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell attributed the sharp upward revisions to inflation to greater supply bottlenecks, which may be “with us for the next few months and into the next year.” It was unclear what will happen if they are with us well into 2022, especially since the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor, something FedEx made abundantly clear in its earnings call last night when it slashed its EPS outlook due to soaring labor and operational costs. This, according to BofA, must be a concern for the Fed, as it threatens to keep inflation more elevated than they had been expecting. The speed by which the supply side constraints ease will be extremely important to inflation risks and the timing of the first hike.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔将通胀大幅上调归因于更大的供应瓶颈，这可能 “在未来几个月和明年都会伴随我们”。目前还不清楚如果他们和我们在一起会发生什么，特别是因为供应方在商品和劳动力方面仍然受到限制，联邦快递昨晚在其财报看涨期权上非常清楚地表明了这一点，当时由于劳动力和运营成本飙升，该公司下调了每股收益展望。美国银行表示，这一定是美联储的担忧，因为它有可能使通胀率高于他们的预期。供应端限制缓解的速度对通胀风险和首次加息的时机极其重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rate market interpretation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率市场解读</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA, the rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish although this is somewhat suspect in line of the sharp curve flattening; in fact one could almost argue that the rates market indicated the Fed is engaging in another policy error.The hawkish interpretation was driven by the Fed’s dot plot and taper communications. The Fed’s dot plot signaled a pace of hikes that is in line with the market for end ’22, 10bps above the market for end ’23, and roughly 60bps above the market for end ’24. For the Fed to be credible, the market will have to move sharply higher, a move which will have adverse consequences on risk assets.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，利率市场将美联储的声明解读为鹰派，尽管这与曲线急剧变平有点可疑；事实上，人们几乎可以说利率市场表明美联储正在犯另一个政策错误。鹰派的解读是由美联储的点阵图和锥形沟通推动的。美联储的点阵图显示，加息步伐与 22 年底的市场一致，比 23 年底的市场高出 10 个基点，比 24 年底的市场高出约 60 个基点。为了让美联储可信，市场必须大幅走高，此举将对风险资产产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed communication also suggests a clearer bias for 5s30s curve flattening in coming months. The announcement of taper at the Nov FOMC should have a limited impact on spreads given the US Treasury is likely to announce coupon cuts on the same day. BofA continues to favor wider swap spreads across the curve in the months ahead due to these UST coupon cuts and ongoing steps to improve UST market structure.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明还表明，未来几个月 5s30s 曲线趋平的倾向更加明显。鉴于美国财政部可能会在同一天宣布降息，11 月 FOMC 宣布缩减政策对利差的影响应该有限。由于 UST 息票下调以及改善 UST 市场结构的持续措施，美国银行在未来几个月继续支持扩大整个曲线的掉期利差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, on a day when the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility hit an all time high of just under $1.3 trillion, the Fed announced an increase in their overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) per counterparty cap from $80bn to $160bn. Weflagged this possibility in Augustdue to increased money fund utilization of ON RRP, and the increase can be interpreted as a preemptive measure by the Fed to ensure abundant money fund & GSE access to the Fed at September quarter end and in case there is a substantial flight to quality due to debt limit concerns.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在美联储隔夜逆回购工具触及略低于 1.3 万亿美元的历史新高的当天，美联储宣布将每交易对手隔夜逆回购（RRP）上限从 800 亿美元增加到 1600 亿美元。由于建议零售价的货币资金利用率增加，我们在 8 月份标记了这种可能性，这种增加可以被解释为美联储的一项先发制人措施，以确保在 9 月季度末获得充足的货币资金和 GSE 资金，以防由于债务上限担忧而大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Key Takeaways From The Fed Meeting<blockquote>美联储会议的三大要点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Key Takeaways From The Fed Meeting<blockquote>美联储会议的三大要点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 15:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confirming what we said in \"It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July\", the FOMC today paved the way for a taper start in two months when it said \"the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Furthermore, the projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed an even split among FOMC members between zero and one hike in 2022, slightly above the OIS implied rate.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 今天证实了我们在“官方消息：缩减规模将于 11 月开始，7 月结束”中所说的话，为两个月后开始缩减规模铺平了道路，当时它表示“委员会判断放缓资产购买步伐可能很快就会得到保证。”此外，经济预测摘要 (SEP) 中政策利率的预计路径显示，FOMC 成员在 2022 年加息零到一次之间持平，略高于 OIS 隐含利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004ce37f590af6e0a21f9d975e07868\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"517\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Additionally, the median projection implied three additional hikes each in 2023 and 2024 (for six and half total by end-2024). As shown in the chart above, the market - which is pricing in just 1% Fed Funds rate in 2024 - will have an uphill climb to catch up to the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中值预测意味着 2023 年和 2024 年各加息三次（到 2024 年底总共加息六次半）。如上图所示，市场（预计 2024 年联邦基金利率仅为 1%）将经历一段上坡路，以赶上美联储的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Curiously, in its commentary on the FOMC, Goldman appears to be hinting at a bit of a mutiny inside the Fed: according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius<b>\"our best guess is that Chair Powell did not project a hike in 2022.\"</b>Is Powell about to cede control to the far more hawkish regional Feds?</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，高盛在对 FOMC 的评论中似乎暗示了美联储内部的一点叛变：根据高盛的 Jan Hatzius 的说法<b>“我们最好的猜测是鲍威尔主席预计 2022 年不会加息。”</b>鲍威尔会将控制权让给更加鹰派的地区联邦政府吗？</blockquote></p><p> In its post-mortem of the FOMC, BofA chief economist Michelle Meyer said that on the whole, the Fed meeting was another move in the \"more hawkish direction.\" even if the bank clarified that \"this is still a very dovish Fed that is highly committed to achieving higher inflation and a hot economy. But in the face of supply side constraints and growing signs of persistent inflation, it appears that those objectives could be met earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶在对联邦公开市场委员会的事后分析中表示，总体而言，美联储会议是朝着“更鹰派方向”的又一步。尽管该行澄清称，“这仍然是一个非常鸽派的美联储，高度致力于实现更高的通胀和火热的经济。但面对供应方面的限制和持续通胀的越来越多迹象，这些目标似乎可以更早实现。”</blockquote></p><p> This may explain why Goldman was wildly off in its forecast: as Hatzius notes, \"the median dot implied three additional hikes in 2023 and three more in 2024, implying three and half total hikes through end-2023 (<b>vs two in June; we expected two at this meeting</b>) and six and half hikes through end-2024 (not reported in June;<b>we expected five at this meeting)</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>这可能解释了为什么高盛的预测如此偏离：正如 Hatzius 指出的那样，“中位数意味着 2023 年再加息三次，2024 年再加息三次，这意味着到 2023 年底总共加息三次半（<b>vs 6月份的两个；我们预计这次会议会有两个</b>）以及到 2024 年底加息 6.5（6 月份未报告；<b>我们预计这次会议会有五个）</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p> <i>There were three key takeaways from the meeting:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>会议有三个主要收获：</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. As noted above, taper on track to be announced in November and be completed by mid-year.</b>While the taper signal in the statement was vague – “may soon be warranted” – Chair Powell clarified in the press conference that they could be ready in the upcoming meeting (in November). Hence absent a significant disappointment in the employment data or financial market disruption, this confirms what wesaid two weeks ago, that tapering will begin in November and end in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如上所述，缩减规模计划将于11月宣布，并于年中完成。</b>虽然声明中的缩减信号很模糊——“可能很快就会得到保证”——但鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上澄清说，他们可以在即将举行的会议（11月）上做好准备。因此，在就业数据或金融市场混乱没有出现重大失望的情况下，这证实了我们两周前所说的，即缩减规模将于11月开始，7月结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4884154b330962d6b6fcd98e9c85418\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Committee members are edging toward higher rates:</b>As the Fed's updated dot plot showed, the Committee is now evenly split between the first hike in 2022 or 2023, which brought the median up to 0.25%. The consensus is now for 3 hikes in both 2023 and 2024, leaving rates at the end of the forecast horizon at 1.75%. As Chair Powell noted, this is still decently below the long-run funds rate of 2.5%, which means policy is still accommodative; meanwhile with 2024 OIS still pegged at 1% the market's verdict is no way the Fed can achieve this.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 委员会成员正朝着更高的费率迈进：</b>正如美联储更新的点阵图显示的那样，该委员会现在在 2022 年或 2023 年的首次加息之间平分秋色，这使得中位数达到 0.25%。目前的共识是在 2023 年和 2024 年加息 3 次，预测期末利率为 1.75%。正如鲍威尔主席所指出的，这仍远低于2.5%的长期基金利率，这意味着政策仍然宽松；与此同时，由于 2024 年 OIS 仍固定在 1%，市场认为美联储无法实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f87fc312d1d9568d892ff617c764ed\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"692\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The case of higher inflation is building due to greater supply side constraints:</b>Forecasts were boosted for core inflation modestly and Powell noted that the supply side is constrained and creating challenges for inflation. As BofA notes, \"the Fed has become more concerned about persistent price pressures, although the critical test will be long-run inflation expectations, which remain well anchored. Monitoring the supply side developments will be critical:; the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 由于更大的供应端约束，通胀走高的情况正在形成：</b>核心通胀预测小幅上调，鲍威尔指出，供应端受到限制，给通胀带来挑战。正如美国银行指出的那样，“美联储越来越担心持续的价格压力，尽管关键的考验将是长期通胀预期，而长期通胀预期仍然牢固。监控供应方面的发展将至关重要：；供应方面的商品和劳动力仍然受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5516c94d75fdd3cad63a50f70c800d2\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Market reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场反应</b></blockquote></p><p> The rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish, with the yield curve flattening, 5Y rates 2bps higher & 30Y rates 2bp lower.</p><p><blockquote>利率市场将美联储的声明解读为鹰派，收益率曲线趋平，5年期利率上升2个基点，30年期利率下降2个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d75e049d598d45ef7b365b7217039c\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"556\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This according to BofA, was driven by changes to the dot-plot and communication about tapering. Meanwhile, the US dollar initially sold off following release of the statement but subsequently rallied sharply during Chair Powell’s press conference, finishing the day higher, with lower beta FX (emphasis: EUR) underperforming. A strong probability of a November taper and, in particular, the new hawkish dot plot are likely continue to support USD in the weeks ahead, unless fears about a big policy mistake - one which potentially could force the Fed to proceed with QE - re-emerge as they did in June.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，这是由点阵图的变化和有关缩减规模的沟通推动的。与此同时，美元最初在声明发布后遭到抛售，但随后在鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会上大幅反弹，收盘走高，贝塔外汇（重点：欧元）表现不佳。11 月份缩减货币规模的可能性很大，尤其是新的鹰派点图，可能会在未来几周继续支撑美元，除非对重大政策失误的担忧再次出现——这一失误可能会迫使美联储继续实施量化宽松政策——就像他们在 6 月份所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On the November Taper</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于十一月的锥形</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While the statement was somewhat vague, Chair Powell was clear in the press conference. He noted that the criterion for substantial further progress for price stability has been met and has “all but been met” for employment, even if some cynics pointed out that is hardly the case.</p><p><blockquote>虽然声明有些含糊，但鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上说得很清楚。他指出，价格稳定取得实质性进一步进展的标准已经达到，就业方面 “几乎已经达到”，尽管一些愤世嫉俗者指出情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aed2c94eac690f4eb801af27d8da740\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he would need to see a “good” but not exceptional jobs report in September to feel comfortable announcing tapering at the upcoming meeting in November. Powell was also specific on the path for tapering, noting that the Committee expects to finish tapering by the middle of the year, indicating a preference for a monthly pace for tapering, translating into $15bn every month.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说，他需要在 9 月份看到一份 “良好 ”但并非出色的就业报告，才能在即将于 11 月份举行的会议上宣布缩减就业规模。鲍威尔还具体说明了缩减规模的路径，他指出，该委员会预计将在年中完成缩减规模，这表明他倾向于每月缩减规模，即每月 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hiking is (not) tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>徒步旅行（不是）逐渐减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to 2013, Powell reiterated that the decision to taper is different from the decision to hike, stating that when tapering starts, we will be “well away from satisfying the liftoff test.” Despite similar rhetoric in 2013, it took the bond market months to agree with this take. However, what is clear - at least according to the Fed - is that at the end of the forecast horizon in 2024,<b>rates will still be below the long-run rate forecast, suggesting that policy will be supportive into 2025; one can only imagine what inflation will be then.</b>Powell also emphasized the importance of long-run inflation expectations, arguing that they are higher but mostly back to 2013 levels and not particularly troubling. He reiterated that the goal of FAIT was to push up inflation expectations, which is what has been done. He also mentioned the Fed Board’s Common Inflation Expectations (CIE) measure are at reasonable levels that are consistent with the FOMC’s inflation target.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年类似，鲍威尔重申，缩减规模的决定不同于加息的决定，他表示，当缩减规模开始时，我们将 “远远无法通过起飞测试”。尽管2013年也有类似的言论，但债券市场花了几个月的时间才同意这种观点。然而，至少美联储认为，显而易见的是，在 2024 年预测期限结束时，<b>利率仍将低于长期利率预测，表明政策将在2025年之前保持支持性；人们只能想象那时的通货膨胀会是什么样子。</b>鲍威尔还强调了长期通胀预期的重要性，认为通胀预期较高，但大多回到2013年的水平，并不特别令人担忧。他重申，事实上的目标是推高通胀预期，这就是一直在做的事情。他还提到，美联储理事会的共同通胀预期（CIE）指标处于合理水平，与联邦公开市场委员会的通胀目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transitory inflation is (not) permanent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>暂时性通货膨胀（不是）永久性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell attributed the sharp upward revisions to inflation to greater supply bottlenecks, which may be “with us for the next few months and into the next year.” It was unclear what will happen if they are with us well into 2022, especially since the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor, something FedEx made abundantly clear in its earnings call last night when it slashed its EPS outlook due to soaring labor and operational costs. This, according to BofA, must be a concern for the Fed, as it threatens to keep inflation more elevated than they had been expecting. The speed by which the supply side constraints ease will be extremely important to inflation risks and the timing of the first hike.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔将通胀大幅上调归因于更大的供应瓶颈，这可能 “在未来几个月和明年都会伴随我们”。目前还不清楚如果他们和我们在一起会发生什么，特别是因为供应方在商品和劳动力方面仍然受到限制，联邦快递昨晚在其财报看涨期权上非常清楚地表明了这一点，当时由于劳动力和运营成本飙升，该公司下调了每股收益展望。美国银行表示，这一定是美联储的担忧，因为它有可能使通胀率高于他们的预期。供应端限制缓解的速度对通胀风险和首次加息的时机极其重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rate market interpretation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率市场解读</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA, the rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish although this is somewhat suspect in line of the sharp curve flattening; in fact one could almost argue that the rates market indicated the Fed is engaging in another policy error.The hawkish interpretation was driven by the Fed’s dot plot and taper communications. The Fed’s dot plot signaled a pace of hikes that is in line with the market for end ’22, 10bps above the market for end ’23, and roughly 60bps above the market for end ’24. For the Fed to be credible, the market will have to move sharply higher, a move which will have adverse consequences on risk assets.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，利率市场将美联储的声明解读为鹰派，尽管这与曲线急剧变平有点可疑；事实上，人们几乎可以说利率市场表明美联储正在犯另一个政策错误。鹰派的解读是由美联储的点阵图和锥形沟通推动的。美联储的点阵图显示，加息步伐与 22 年底的市场一致，比 23 年底的市场高出 10 个基点，比 24 年底的市场高出约 60 个基点。为了让美联储可信，市场必须大幅走高，此举将对风险资产产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed communication also suggests a clearer bias for 5s30s curve flattening in coming months. The announcement of taper at the Nov FOMC should have a limited impact on spreads given the US Treasury is likely to announce coupon cuts on the same day. BofA continues to favor wider swap spreads across the curve in the months ahead due to these UST coupon cuts and ongoing steps to improve UST market structure.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明还表明，未来几个月 5s30s 曲线趋平的倾向更加明显。鉴于美国财政部可能会在同一天宣布降息，11 月 FOMC 宣布缩减政策对利差的影响应该有限。由于 UST 息票下调以及改善 UST 市场结构的持续措施，美国银行在未来几个月继续支持扩大整个曲线的掉期利差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, on a day when the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility hit an all time high of just under $1.3 trillion, the Fed announced an increase in their overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) per counterparty cap from $80bn to $160bn. Weflagged this possibility in Augustdue to increased money fund utilization of ON RRP, and the increase can be interpreted as a preemptive measure by the Fed to ensure abundant money fund & GSE access to the Fed at September quarter end and in case there is a substantial flight to quality due to debt limit concerns.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在美联储隔夜逆回购工具触及略低于 1.3 万亿美元的历史新高的当天，美联储宣布将每交易对手隔夜逆回购（RRP）上限从 800 亿美元增加到 1600 亿美元。由于建议零售价的货币资金利用率增加，我们在 8 月份标记了这种可能性，这种增加可以被解释为美联储的一项先发制人措施，以确保在 9 月季度末获得充足的货币资金和 GSE 资金，以防由于债务上限担忧而大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-key-takeaways-fed-meeting\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-key-takeaways-fed-meeting","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134836893","content_text":"Confirming what we said in \"It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July\", the FOMC today paved the way for a taper start in two months when it said \"the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Furthermore, the projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed an even split among FOMC members between zero and one hike in 2022, slightly above the OIS implied rate.\nAdditionally, the median projection implied three additional hikes each in 2023 and 2024 (for six and half total by end-2024). As shown in the chart above, the market - which is pricing in just 1% Fed Funds rate in 2024 - will have an uphill climb to catch up to the Fed.\nCuriously, in its commentary on the FOMC, Goldman appears to be hinting at a bit of a mutiny inside the Fed: according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius\"our best guess is that Chair Powell did not project a hike in 2022.\"Is Powell about to cede control to the far more hawkish regional Feds?\nIn its post-mortem of the FOMC, BofA chief economist Michelle Meyer said that on the whole, the Fed meeting was another move in the \"more hawkish direction.\" even if the bank clarified that \"this is still a very dovish Fed that is highly committed to achieving higher inflation and a hot economy. But in the face of supply side constraints and growing signs of persistent inflation, it appears that those objectives could be met earlier.\"\nThis may explain why Goldman was wildly off in its forecast: as Hatzius notes, \"the median dot implied three additional hikes in 2023 and three more in 2024, implying three and half total hikes through end-2023 (vs two in June; we expected two at this meeting) and six and half hikes through end-2024 (not reported in June;we expected five at this meeting).\"\nThere were three key takeaways from the meeting:\n1. As noted above, taper on track to be announced in November and be completed by mid-year.While the taper signal in the statement was vague – “may soon be warranted” – Chair Powell clarified in the press conference that they could be ready in the upcoming meeting (in November). Hence absent a significant disappointment in the employment data or financial market disruption, this confirms what wesaid two weeks ago, that tapering will begin in November and end in July.\n\n2. Committee members are edging toward higher rates:As the Fed's updated dot plot showed, the Committee is now evenly split between the first hike in 2022 or 2023, which brought the median up to 0.25%. The consensus is now for 3 hikes in both 2023 and 2024, leaving rates at the end of the forecast horizon at 1.75%. As Chair Powell noted, this is still decently below the long-run funds rate of 2.5%, which means policy is still accommodative; meanwhile with 2024 OIS still pegged at 1% the market's verdict is no way the Fed can achieve this.\n\n3. The case of higher inflation is building due to greater supply side constraints:Forecasts were boosted for core inflation modestly and Powell noted that the supply side is constrained and creating challenges for inflation. As BofA notes, \"the Fed has become more concerned about persistent price pressures, although the critical test will be long-run inflation expectations, which remain well anchored. Monitoring the supply side developments will be critical:; the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor.\nMarket reaction\nThe rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish, with the yield curve flattening, 5Y rates 2bps higher & 30Y rates 2bp lower.\n\nThis according to BofA, was driven by changes to the dot-plot and communication about tapering. Meanwhile, the US dollar initially sold off following release of the statement but subsequently rallied sharply during Chair Powell’s press conference, finishing the day higher, with lower beta FX (emphasis: EUR) underperforming. A strong probability of a November taper and, in particular, the new hawkish dot plot are likely continue to support USD in the weeks ahead, unless fears about a big policy mistake - one which potentially could force the Fed to proceed with QE - re-emerge as they did in June.\nOn the November Taper\nWhile the statement was somewhat vague, Chair Powell was clear in the press conference. He noted that the criterion for substantial further progress for price stability has been met and has “all but been met” for employment, even if some cynics pointed out that is hardly the case.\n\nPowell said he would need to see a “good” but not exceptional jobs report in September to feel comfortable announcing tapering at the upcoming meeting in November. Powell was also specific on the path for tapering, noting that the Committee expects to finish tapering by the middle of the year, indicating a preference for a monthly pace for tapering, translating into $15bn every month.\nHiking is (not) tapering\nSimilar to 2013, Powell reiterated that the decision to taper is different from the decision to hike, stating that when tapering starts, we will be “well away from satisfying the liftoff test.” Despite similar rhetoric in 2013, it took the bond market months to agree with this take. However, what is clear - at least according to the Fed - is that at the end of the forecast horizon in 2024,rates will still be below the long-run rate forecast, suggesting that policy will be supportive into 2025; one can only imagine what inflation will be then.Powell also emphasized the importance of long-run inflation expectations, arguing that they are higher but mostly back to 2013 levels and not particularly troubling. He reiterated that the goal of FAIT was to push up inflation expectations, which is what has been done. He also mentioned the Fed Board’s Common Inflation Expectations (CIE) measure are at reasonable levels that are consistent with the FOMC’s inflation target.\nTransitory inflation is (not) permanent\nPowell attributed the sharp upward revisions to inflation to greater supply bottlenecks, which may be “with us for the next few months and into the next year.” It was unclear what will happen if they are with us well into 2022, especially since the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor, something FedEx made abundantly clear in its earnings call last night when it slashed its EPS outlook due to soaring labor and operational costs. This, according to BofA, must be a concern for the Fed, as it threatens to keep inflation more elevated than they had been expecting. The speed by which the supply side constraints ease will be extremely important to inflation risks and the timing of the first hike.\nRate market interpretation\nAccording to BofA, the rates market interpreted Fed communications as hawkish although this is somewhat suspect in line of the sharp curve flattening; in fact one could almost argue that the rates market indicated the Fed is engaging in another policy error.The hawkish interpretation was driven by the Fed’s dot plot and taper communications. The Fed’s dot plot signaled a pace of hikes that is in line with the market for end ’22, 10bps above the market for end ’23, and roughly 60bps above the market for end ’24. For the Fed to be credible, the market will have to move sharply higher, a move which will have adverse consequences on risk assets.\nThe Fed communication also suggests a clearer bias for 5s30s curve flattening in coming months. The announcement of taper at the Nov FOMC should have a limited impact on spreads given the US Treasury is likely to announce coupon cuts on the same day. BofA continues to favor wider swap spreads across the curve in the months ahead due to these UST coupon cuts and ongoing steps to improve UST market structure.\nFinally, on a day when the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility hit an all time high of just under $1.3 trillion, the Fed announced an increase in their overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) per counterparty cap from $80bn to $160bn. Weflagged this possibility in Augustdue to increased money fund utilization of ON RRP, and the increase can be interpreted as a preemptive measure by the Fed to ensure abundant money fund & GSE access to the Fed at September quarter end and in case there is a substantial flight to quality due to debt limit concerns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/863689665"}
精彩评论