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2021-09-30
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U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>美国经济预计将在三角洲推动的衰退后加速</blockquote>
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The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预测，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。新冠肺炎的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个未知数是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更严重，导致通货膨胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制依然存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀走高的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔先生在欧洲中央银行主办的一次主持人讨论中说：”目前的通胀飙升实际上是供应约束满足非常强劲需求的结果。而这一切都与经济的重新开放有关，而经济的重新开放是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预测，但他们上调了明年的预测，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因it和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月下旬预测，第三季度国内生产总值将以3.6%的年增长率增长。这还不到该公司 7 月中旬预测的第三季度 7.8% 增长率的一半，部分反映了三角洲压力导致的支出减少。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的预估。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>“IHS Markit 首席美国经济学家乔尔-普拉肯（Joel Prakken）说：”我确实认为，这种新菌株敲响了一些在 7 月之前不会敲响的警钟。“经济复苏的基础是坚实的。但它不如上半年那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着 COVID-19 病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站 OpenTable 的数据显示，截至 9 月 28 日当周，餐厅就餐人数仅比 2019 年同期下降了 8%，降幅不如本月初那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月下旬以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局将客运量与 2019 年进行比较的数据，自 9 月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭的净资产可能会达到创纪录的 142 万亿美元，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞有限责任公司（Jefferies LLC）首席经济学家阿内塔-马尔科夫斯卡（Aneta Markowska）说：”消费者形势良好。“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假日季节可能会为支出提供另一个动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会旅行进行家庭聚会，去年许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司 Similarweb 的数据，8 月份与 12 月旅行相关的互联网搜索数量是去年同期的五倍，这是假期需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的 9 月份预测中将 2022 年增长预测上调至 3.8%，高于 6 月份预测的 3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计第三季度后增长将再次加速。本月，Decision Economics, Inc. 首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈 (Allen Sinai) 预计，2022 年第四季度产出年增长率为 6.5%，第一季度产出年增长率为 5.1%，高于第三季度的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来就像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因大流行病恶化而受到抑制”。“但六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们都将度过那个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国很容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎构成的经济威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增那么严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这让消费者更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有 112 年历史的博尔德拉多酒店总经理克赖顿-史密斯（Creighton Smith）说，今年夏天，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了 5% 到 10%。他说，渴望旅行的人们已经被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“史密斯先生说：”夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订量放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧，这种恐惧在疫情早些时候阻碍了销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，一个好的冬天。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告称，家电、电脑、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单大幅增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续限制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit 分析师下调了对 2022 年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间来解决。该预测公司指出，例如，在马来西亚，政府的长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在 3 月份激增后，夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies 的 Markowska 女士表示，住房许可数量连续两个月增加，可能会发出一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月劳动力短缺情况将有所改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从一线回来。9月份全国范围内扩大的失业救济金到期，可能会让一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts & Associates LLC 首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨 (Amy Crews Cutts) 表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，现在他们已经回到学校，就能阻止很多传播。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部数据显示，第二季度劳动力短缺导致私营部门工人的工资和薪水同比上涨 3.6%，这是自 2002 年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可以为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可以提供新一轮支出，以促进经济增长。其中包括一项 1 万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的 3.5 万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健服务、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然有充裕的现金，并且对服务有很多被压抑的需求。根据杰富瑞有限责任公司（Jefferies LLC）对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭仅花费了今年经济刺激支出的约25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>美国经济预计将在三角洲推动的衰退后加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>美国经济预计将在三角洲推动的衰退后加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.</b> The Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.</p><p><blockquote><b>由于 Covid-19 激增和供应限制，经济学家下调了第三季度增长预期，但预计复苏将重新获得动力。</b>Covid-19 的德尔塔变异毒株似乎抑制了今年夏天的经济增长，但经济学家预计，随着病毒造成的损失减轻，大流行病的复苏将再次加速。</blockquote></p><p> In recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预测，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。新冠肺炎的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个未知数是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更严重，导致通货膨胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制依然存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀走高的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔先生在欧洲中央银行主办的一次主持人讨论中说：”目前的通胀飙升实际上是供应约束满足非常强劲需求的结果。而这一切都与经济的重新开放有关，而经济的重新开放是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预测，但他们上调了明年的预测，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因it和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月下旬预测，第三季度国内生产总值将以3.6%的年增长率增长。这还不到该公司 7 月中旬预测的第三季度 7.8% 增长率的一半，部分反映了三角洲压力导致的支出减少。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的预估。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>“IHS Markit 首席美国经济学家乔尔-普拉肯（Joel Prakken）说：”我确实认为，这种新菌株敲响了一些在 7 月之前不会敲响的警钟。“经济复苏的基础是坚实的。但它不如上半年那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着 COVID-19 病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站 OpenTable 的数据显示，截至 9 月 28 日当周，餐厅就餐人数仅比 2019 年同期下降了 8%，降幅不如本月初那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月下旬以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局将客运量与 2019 年进行比较的数据，自 9 月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭的净资产可能会达到创纪录的 142 万亿美元，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞有限责任公司（Jefferies LLC）首席经济学家阿内塔-马尔科夫斯卡（Aneta Markowska）说：”消费者形势良好。“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假日季节可能会为支出提供另一个动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会旅行进行家庭聚会，去年许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司 Similarweb 的数据，8 月份与 12 月旅行相关的互联网搜索数量是去年同期的五倍，这是假期需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的 9 月份预测中将 2022 年增长预测上调至 3.8%，高于 6 月份预测的 3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计第三季度后增长将再次加速。本月，Decision Economics, Inc. 首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈 (Allen Sinai) 预计，2022 年第四季度产出年增长率为 6.5%，第一季度产出年增长率为 5.1%，高于第三季度的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来就像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因大流行病恶化而受到抑制”。“但六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们都将度过那个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国很容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎构成的经济威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增那么严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这让消费者更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有 112 年历史的博尔德拉多酒店总经理克赖顿-史密斯（Creighton Smith）说，今年夏天，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了 5% 到 10%。他说，渴望旅行的人们已经被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“史密斯先生说：”夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订量放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧，这种恐惧在疫情早些时候阻碍了销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，一个好的冬天。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告称，家电、电脑、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单大幅增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续限制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit 分析师下调了对 2022 年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间来解决。该预测公司指出，例如，在马来西亚，政府的长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在 3 月份激增后，夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies 的 Markowska 女士表示，住房许可数量连续两个月增加，可能会发出一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月劳动力短缺情况将有所改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从一线回来。9月份全国范围内扩大的失业救济金到期，可能会让一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts & Associates LLC 首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨 (Amy Crews Cutts) 表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，现在他们已经回到学校，就能阻止很多传播。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部数据显示，第二季度劳动力短缺导致私营部门工人的工资和薪水同比上涨 3.6%，这是自 2002 年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可以为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可以提供新一轮支出，以促进经济增长。其中包括一项 1 万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的 3.5 万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健服务、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然有充裕的现金，并且对服务有很多被压抑的需求。根据杰富瑞有限责任公司（Jefferies LLC）对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭仅花费了今年经济刺激支出的约25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186072554","content_text":"Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.\n\nThe Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.\nIn recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.\nOne wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.\nWhile constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.\n“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.\nWhile many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.\nForecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.\n“I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”\nThere are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.\nU.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.\nCovid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.\n“The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”\nMs. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.\nThe Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.\nSome economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.\nThe economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”\nThough the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.\nThe economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.\nRestaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.\n“There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.\n\nDelta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.\n“We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.\nCompanies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.\nSemiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.\nStill, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.\nHousing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.\nLabor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.\nIncreased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.\n“If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.\nEconomists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.\nLabor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.\nThe federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.\nSome economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4477,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865121553"}
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