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2021-09-30
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U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>
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The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预期，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。Covid-19的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份的繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个不确定因素是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更加严重，导致通胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制因素持续存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀上升的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“当前的通胀飙升实际上是供应限制满足非常强劲需求的结果。这一切都与经济重新开放有关，这是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。”在欧洲央行主持的主持讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预期，但他们上调了明年的预期，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因其和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月底预测，第三季度国内生产总值年率将增长3.6%。这不到该公司7月中旬预测的第三季度增长7.8%的一半，部分反映了Delta菌株导致的支出下降。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“我确实认为，这种新毒株已经敲响了一些7月份之前没有敲响的警钟。”“复苏基础稳固。但只是不如我们今年上半年看到的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着COVID-19病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站OpenTable的数据显示，截至9月28日的一周，餐厅就餐人数较2019年同期仅下降8%，降幅没有本月早些时候那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月底以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局（Transportation Security Administration）将客运量与2019年进行比较的数据，自9月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭可能会获得创纪录的142万亿美元净资产，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“消费者状况良好。”“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假期可能会为支出提供另一个推动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会去旅行参加家庭聚会，当时许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司Similarweb的数据，8月份与12月旅行相关的互联网搜索量是去年同期的五倍，这是度假需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的9月份预测中将2022年增长预期上调至3.8%，高于6月份预测的3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计增长将在第三季度后重新加速。本月，Decision Economics，Inc.首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈（Allen Sinai）预计，2022年第四季度和第一季度的产出年增长率分别为6.5%和5.1%，高于第三季度的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因疫情恶化而受到抑制”。“但从现在起六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们将度过这个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎对经济构成的威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这有助于消费者感到更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有112年历史的博尔德拉多酒店(Hotel Boulderado)总经理克赖顿·史密斯(Creighton Smith)表示，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入今年夏天突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了5%至10%。他说，渴望旅行的人被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多，”史密斯先生说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯先生说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临疫情早期阻碍销售的同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，还有一个好的冬天，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告家电、计算机、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单急剧增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续抑制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit分析师下调了对2022年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间才能解决。例如，该预测公司指出，在马来西亚，政府长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在三月份飙升后，在夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies的Markowska女士表示，连续两个月增加的住房许可可能是一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺问题将在未来几个月得到改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从场外返回。全国范围内扩大的失业救济金将于9月份到期，这可能会吸引一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts&Associates LLC首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨(Amy Crews Cutts)表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力队伍。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，就能阻止他们重返学校后发生的大量传播。”</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>根据劳工部的数据，劳动力短缺导致第二季度私营部门工人的工资同比上涨3.6%，这是自2002年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可能会为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可能实施另一轮支出，从而提振经济增长。其中包括一项1万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的3.5万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然拥有充足的现金，并且对服务有大量被压抑的需求。根据Jefferies LLC对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭只花了今年刺激支出的25%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.</b> The Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.</p><p><blockquote><b>由于Covid-19激增和供应限制，经济学家下调了第三季度增长预期，但预计复苏将重新获得动力。</b>今年夏天，Covid-19的德尔塔变异毒株似乎抑制了经济增长，但经济学家预计，随着病毒造成的损失减轻，疫情的复苏将重新加速。</blockquote></p><p> In recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预期，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。Covid-19的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份的繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个不确定因素是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更加严重，导致通胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制因素持续存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀上升的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“当前的通胀飙升实际上是供应限制满足非常强劲需求的结果。这一切都与经济重新开放有关，这是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。”在欧洲央行主持的主持讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预期，但他们上调了明年的预期，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因其和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月底预测，第三季度国内生产总值年率将增长3.6%。这不到该公司7月中旬预测的第三季度增长7.8%的一半，部分反映了Delta菌株导致的支出下降。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“我确实认为，这种新毒株已经敲响了一些7月份之前没有敲响的警钟。”“复苏基础稳固。但只是不如我们今年上半年看到的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着COVID-19病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站OpenTable的数据显示，截至9月28日的一周，餐厅就餐人数较2019年同期仅下降8%，降幅没有本月早些时候那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月底以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局（Transportation Security Administration）将客运量与2019年进行比较的数据，自9月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭可能会获得创纪录的142万亿美元净资产，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“消费者状况良好。”“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假期可能会为支出提供另一个推动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会去旅行参加家庭聚会，当时许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司Similarweb的数据，8月份与12月旅行相关的互联网搜索量是去年同期的五倍，这是度假需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的9月份预测中将2022年增长预期上调至3.8%，高于6月份预测的3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计增长将在第三季度后重新加速。本月，Decision Economics，Inc.首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈（Allen Sinai）预计，2022年第四季度和第一季度的产出年增长率分别为6.5%和5.1%，高于第三季度的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因疫情恶化而受到抑制”。“但从现在起六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们将度过这个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎对经济构成的威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这有助于消费者感到更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有112年历史的博尔德拉多酒店(Hotel Boulderado)总经理克赖顿·史密斯(Creighton Smith)表示，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入今年夏天突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了5%至10%。他说，渴望旅行的人被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多，”史密斯先生说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯先生说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临疫情早期阻碍销售的同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，还有一个好的冬天，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告家电、计算机、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单急剧增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续抑制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit分析师下调了对2022年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间才能解决。例如，该预测公司指出，在马来西亚，政府长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在三月份飙升后，在夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies的Markowska女士表示，连续两个月增加的住房许可可能是一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺问题将在未来几个月得到改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从场外返回。全国范围内扩大的失业救济金将于9月份到期，这可能会吸引一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts&Associates LLC首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨(Amy Crews Cutts)表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力队伍。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，就能阻止他们重返学校后发生的大量传播。”</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>根据劳工部的数据，劳动力短缺导致第二季度私营部门工人的工资同比上涨3.6%，这是自2002年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可能会为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可能实施另一轮支出，从而提振经济增长。其中包括一项1万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的3.5万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然拥有充足的现金，并且对服务有大量被压抑的需求。根据Jefferies LLC对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭只花了今年刺激支出的25%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186072554","content_text":"Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.\n\nThe Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.\nIn recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.\nOne wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.\nWhile constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.\n“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.\nWhile many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.\nForecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.\n“I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”\nThere are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.\nU.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.\nCovid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.\n“The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”\nMs. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.\nThe Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.\nSome economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.\nThe economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”\nThough the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.\nThe economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.\nRestaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.\n“There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.\n\nDelta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.\n“We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.\nCompanies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.\nSemiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.\nStill, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.\nHousing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.\nLabor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.\nIncreased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.\n“If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.\nEconomists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.\nLabor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.\nThe federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.\nSome economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3526,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865121553"}
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