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2021-09-30
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BioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于 Comirnaty 销售，但长期价值仍在酝酿之中</blockquote>
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It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c2347e8f25525b37a93f78e0d8ba65\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>BioNTech 对于投资者来说是一个非凡的成功故事，自 2019 年 IPO 以来，投资收益约为 1,900%。</li><li>管理层认为，其 mRNA 疫苗 Comirnaty 的销售将在 2021 年为该公司带来超过 180 亿美元的收入，远远超出预期。</li><li>然而，这些收入可能不可持续——我预计从 2022 年起将降至 100 亿美元以下。</li><li>尽管如此，BioNTech 从来都不是关于单一疫苗，而且该管道令人兴奋。</li><li>mRNA 技术将继续存在，BioNTech 的产品线将很快成为评估该公司价值的关键衡量标准。这可能需要时间，但在我看来，三位数十亿的估值是一种明显的可能性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> BioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a >1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?</p><p><blockquote>BioNTech (BNTX) 的股东在这家德国公司 IPO 时支持了这家信使 RNA 先驱，该公司以 15 美元的价格筹集了约 1.5 亿美元，他们对迄今为止超过 1,900% 的投资收益感到非常满意 - 但该公司目前每股 277 美元的价格仍然值得支持吗？</blockquote></p><p> When I last covered BioNTech back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当我上次在 2 月份报道 BioNTech 时，我对 BioNTech 股票的股价预测约为 200 美元，但这是基于其与辉瑞 (PFE) 联合开发的 Comirnaty COVID 疫苗的销售额在 2021 年达到约 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Releasing its Q2'21 results in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于 8 月初发布了 2021 年第二季度业绩，报告 6 个月收入为 85.6 亿美元，超出了我的预期，其股价达到了 388 美元的惊人峰值。</blockquote></p><p> At the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching >$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.</p><p><blockquote>截至撰写本文时，股价已回落至 277 美元，较 8 月份的峰值折价约 29%，但管理层预测全年收入约为 185 亿美元，净利润可能达到 135 亿美元以上（如果我们取 6 个月净利润数字 68 亿美元并翻倍），投资者可能会看到 4 倍的远期市销率和约 5 倍的远期市盈率，并认为 BioNTech 股票继续看起来很有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Essentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，有两个因素将决定 BioNTech 股票以当前价格是否值得购买，以及投资者应该考虑持有它们多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> The first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now approved to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and under consideration for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.</p><p><blockquote>首先是对其COVID疫苗Comirnaty的持续需求规模。可悲的是，来自这一来源的收入可能已经超出了市场最疯狂的预期，因为疫情拒绝消亡，而且现在美国批准对 65 岁以上的人和英国 50 岁以上的人进行加强注射，并且正在考虑对欧洲所有 16 岁以上的人进行加强注射，BioNTech 最终销售的 Comirnaty 注射数量似乎没有设定限制。</blockquote></p><p> The second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.</p><p><blockquote>第二个是信使-RNA技术的使用迁移到其他治疗模式，以针对广泛的疾病，这可能会在疗效和安全性方面挑战当前的护理标准。</blockquote></p><p> Only in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.</p><p><blockquote>只有在噩梦般的情况下，疫苗需求才会在未来2-3年内保持在当前水平，因此BioNTech的收入从长远来看不会保持在2021年的水平，除非它能够推出针对其他传染病、肿瘤学、自身免疫、炎症、再生医学等的新疫苗产品。</blockquote></p><p> To that end, BioNTech recently released a 70-slide presentation highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.</p><p><blockquote>为此，BioNTech 最近发布了一份 70 张幻灯片的演示文稿，重点介绍了其开发管道，并报告了上述所有治疗领域的进展。没有一个提到它的COVID疫苗，这说明BioNTech从来没有，也永远不会认为自己是一家纯粹的COVID疫苗公司。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，要在其他适应症中成功开发新的mRNA疗法还需要时间，而且也不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p> New challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised > $700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a >$120bn market cap valuation recently splashed out $3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.</p><p><blockquote>mRNA 领域正在出现新的挑战者，拥有强大的投资者支持和雄心勃勃的目标 - 例如，总部位于中国的制药公司 Abogen Biosciences 最近筹集了超过 7 亿美元的资金来开发 mRNA COVID 疫苗，而法国制药公司赛诺菲 (SNY) 市值超过 1200 亿美元最近斥资 32 亿美元收购了 Translate Bio 及其针对囊性纤维化和其他遗传疾病的信使 RNA 技术。</blockquote></p><p> 6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped >50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.</p><p><blockquote>6个月前，Moderna (mRNA)、BioNTech 和 CureVac 可能被认为是“三大”mRNA 先驱，但 CureVac 未能成功开发新冠疫苗，其市值蒸发了 50% 以上，而 Moderna 股票则实现了前所未有的高点，截至撰写本文时，交易价格为 390 美元，市值为 1570 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in other posts on Moderna itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个惊人的高估值，但正如我在上一篇关于 BioNTech 的帖子和其他关于 Moderna 本身的帖子中所说，如果该公司能够证明 mRNA 技术可以在任何治疗环境中发挥作用，那么估值可能会再次翻倍——正如它正在努力做到的那样。</blockquote></p><p> I would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.</p><p><blockquote>我当然认为 BioNTech 与 Moderna 的共同点比与 CureVac 的共同点更多——该公司在 2021 财年将获得与 Moderna 相似的收入，但其 750 亿美元的市值是 Moderna 的一半。</blockquote></p><p> That may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.</p><p><blockquote>这可能首先是由于市场认为 BioNTech 的成功很大程度上归功于辉瑞，而 Moderna 并不依赖大型制药合作伙伴，其次是由于 Moderna 非新冠项目的实力。</blockquote></p><p> In the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章的其余部分，我将仔细研究 BioNTech 的 Covid 收益及其长期发展管道，以突出短期和长期投资案例。</blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，BioNTech 的价值不低于 Moderna 的一半，而且 Moderna 本身相对于其开发 mRNA 疫苗和其他治疗模式疗法的机会可能被低估。</blockquote></p><p> As such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我的感觉是，根据 Comirnaty 的最新进展以及加强注射的引入，投资者可以以当前价格买入 BioNTech 股票，并对近期约 30% 的上涨空间持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> A dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a >$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>如果 2022 年后 COVID 收入开始下滑（我预计这种情况会发生），并且很明显，那么接下来可能会出现下滑，但这应该会被管道进展所抵消，这表明 BioNTech 可以保持超过 1000 亿美元的市值，甚至可能处于预期的低端。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outlook for Comirnaty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Comirnaty 展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in >130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech的COVID疫苗——现在被称为Comirnaty，得到了FDA的完全批准，并在130多个国家用于抗击冠状病毒。</blockquote></p><p> In the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped >1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21 earnings presentation.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年前 6 个月，BioNTech 和辉瑞运送了超过 10 亿剂 Comirnaty，签署了供应合同，将在年底前再交付 22 亿剂，并承诺再向低收入和中等收入国家供应 20 亿剂。 BioNTech 21 年第二季度收益报告中的总结。</blockquote></p><p> Alongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine failed to achieve the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's >95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>除了与欧盟签署的提供 9 亿剂疫苗的协议外，CureVac 还可能提供另外 9 亿剂疫苗，这些疫苗在其关键试验中未能达到所需的功效（仅达到 47%，而辉瑞/BioNTech 的功效超过 95%）还有 9000 万剂疫苗将运往美国，2022 年可能还会有 9000 万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Since August, however, Comirnaty has received an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".</p><p><blockquote>然而，自8月以来，Comirnaty已获得紧急使用授权（“EUA”），可用作加强疫苗，用于65岁及以上的个人以及某些高危人群中18至64岁的个人，其依据是该疫苗“对新型冠状病毒和所有当前测试的变种产生高中和滴度”。</blockquote></p><p> Covid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the New York Times.</p><p><blockquote>根据《纽约时报》的数据，Covid只是拒绝消失，过去两个月报告的感染、住院和死亡人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> Just as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.</p><p><blockquote>正如它是美国批准的第一个COVID疫苗一样，Comirnaty现在是第一个被批准作为加强注射的疫苗，随着时间的推移，加强注射将扩展到整个美国人口和世界各地的人口，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。展望未来，随着COVID成为地方病，似乎也可能需要每年或每两年注射一次。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我认为 BioNTech 在未来几年不太可能在 2021 年复制其 180 亿美元的销售额（相当于略低于 10 亿剂）。</blockquote></p><p> At maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at >$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech 在最大产能下每年可以生产约 20 亿剂疫苗，因此我们可以相当肯定每家公司的年销售额上限都在 200 亿美元以上，但两家公司的平均销售价格也有可能在 2021 年后下降，随着疫苗的推出从发达国家转向发展中国家。</blockquote></p><p> Arguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve >50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，如果每个全球公民每年接种两次疫苗，每年的需求约为160亿剂，作为主要供应商，BioNTech每年销售10亿剂疫苗不会有问题。最近与欧盟达成的协议与这样的数字相差不远，但它们可能不可重复，从逻辑上讲，在我看来，全球任何人口都不太可能在一年内实现超过50%的人口疫苗接种率。</blockquote></p><p> As such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我预计 BioNTech 在 2021 年之后的任何一年都不会从 Comirnaty 销售中赚取两位数的数十亿美元，而且今年之后其利润率很可能会缩小——2021 年前 6 个月实现的近 80% 的利润率从经济或道德角度来看也是根本不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> I would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.</p><p><blockquote>出于上述原因，我预计 2022 年至 2025 年间 BioNTech 从 Comirnaty 获得的平均收入约为 80 亿美元，平均利润率约为 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>这给我的市销率约为 9.4 倍，市盈率约为 19 倍——这不是特别有吸引力，但很现实，对于一家像 BioNTech 这样有前途的公司来说，考虑到它的产品线，也许是一个强大的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outlook for Pipeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管道展望</b></blockquote></p><p> When we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 BioNTech 和 Moderna 都无法现实地依赖其 COVID 疫苗销售的收入或利润率长期维持在当前水平时，它们的估值（分别为 750 亿美元和 1530 亿美元）可能看起来太高了。</blockquote></p><p> But believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>但 mRNA 技术的信徒——以及为什么没有人会对像 mRNA 这样强大的技术感到兴奋，这种技术可以有效地指导细胞制造任何蛋白质——可能会觉得这两家公司都被严重低估了。</blockquote></p><p> The key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，关键问题是每家公司是否能够提供人们所希望的医学革命——针对许多/所有疾病类型的个性化疫苗，根据患者的特定基因特征量身定制——需要多长时间，失败的风险是多少，以及在过渡时期内，每家公司的股价会发生什么变化。</blockquote></p><p> The first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.</p><p><blockquote>第一个也是最明显的目标是传染病——然后是肿瘤学、CAR-T细胞疗法、免疫疗法，然后扩展到多种模式，涵盖任何投资者都能想到的大多数疾病类型。</blockquote></p><p> 12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在 12 个月前，BioNTech 的传染病产品线在很大程度上还不为人知，但受到 Comirnaty 成功的鼓舞，BioNTech 现在拥有正在开发的疟疾、结核病和艾滋病毒疫苗、正在临床开发的 10 种针对传染病的 mRNA 疫苗，以及与辉瑞联合开发的流感疫苗，这意味着两家公司愿意长期合作——也许合并甚至是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，BioNTech 将提供 5 项针对实体瘤的疫苗试验更新，利用双特异性、CD40 和 CAR-T 细胞疗法，主要针对实体瘤，启动 3 项针对黑色素瘤、头颈癌和结直肠癌的 2 期试验，以及 7 项 1 期试验，包括其流感疫苗计划。</blockquote></p><p> All of the company's plans are laid out in its latest investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的所有计划都在其最新的投资者演示中有所阐述——与再生元（REGN）、基因泰克（罗氏子公司）、赛诺菲以及辉瑞等制药巨头合作。</blockquote></p><p> There are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.</p><p><blockquote>共有15个肿瘤学项目，6个传染病疫苗（公认仍处于临床前阶段），靶向PD-1/PDL1的疗法，百时美施贵宝（BMY）的Opdivo和默沙东（MRK）的Keytruda等癌症重磅药物的靶点，细胞疗法，以及细胞因子抑制剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> My point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>我对 BioNTech 和 Moderna 的看法是，两家公司的行为越来越像大型制药公司——预计它们的创收资产可能不会有很长的保质期，并且明白它们必须提供新药以支持当前的长期估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.</p><p><blockquote>回顾 BioNTech 最新的投资者演示（我鼓励所有潜在投资者这样做），我对 BioNTech 在一年内取得的巨大进步感到震惊，不仅仅是从发展的角度来看——该公司一直有远大的抱负——但从组织和公关的角度来看也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，毫无疑问，市场仍然将 BioNTech 视为纯粹的新冠疫苗，任何每年出售 180 亿美元资产的公司都不太可能将投资者的注意力从该资产上转移开。</blockquote></p><p> But BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，BioNtech 及其管理团队比大多数人都聪明，就像他们的技术一样，而且它正在进行长远规划。</blockquote></p><p> Data readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤学领域的数据读数（今年年底前应该有 5 个）以及新传染病疫苗商业化的进展将迅速成为评估 BioNTech 股票真实价值的关键标准。</blockquote></p><p> There is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者无需担心 BioNtech 的股价因这些项目的负面数据读数而暴跌——当时年收入达到了两位数十亿美元——但这些项目将越来越多地取代 Comirnaty 销售成为股市的称重机器，这对于 mRNA 科学的粉丝来说应该是个好消息——我就是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> It may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要时间，但在我看来，BioNTech 代表着生物技术爱好者令人兴奋的买入和持有机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于 Comirnaty 销售，但长期价值仍在酝酿之中</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于 Comirnaty 销售，但长期价值仍在酝酿之中</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 22:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>BioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on investment since its 2019 IPO.</li> <li>Sales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty will earn the company in excess of $18bn in 2021, management believes - firmly ahead of expectations.</li> <li>These revenues are likely not sustainable, however - I expect them to dip below $10bn from 2022.</li> <li>Nevertheless, BioNTech has never been about a single vaccine and the pipeline excites.</li> <li>mRNA technology is here to stay and BioNTech's pipeline will soon become the key measure for valuing the company. It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c2347e8f25525b37a93f78e0d8ba65\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>BioNTech 对于投资者来说是一个非凡的成功故事，自 2019 年 IPO 以来，投资收益约为 1,900%。</li><li>管理层认为，其 mRNA 疫苗 Comirnaty 的销售将在 2021 年为该公司带来超过 180 亿美元的收入，远远超出预期。</li><li>然而，这些收入可能不可持续——我预计从 2022 年起将降至 100 亿美元以下。</li><li>尽管如此，BioNTech 从来都不是关于单一疫苗，而且该管道令人兴奋。</li><li>mRNA 技术将继续存在，BioNTech 的产品线将很快成为评估该公司价值的关键衡量标准。这可能需要时间，但在我看来，三位数十亿的估值是一种明显的可能性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> BioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a >1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?</p><p><blockquote>BioNTech (BNTX) 的股东在这家德国公司 IPO 时支持了这家信使 RNA 先驱，该公司以 15 美元的价格筹集了约 1.5 亿美元，他们对迄今为止超过 1,900% 的投资收益感到非常满意 - 但该公司目前每股 277 美元的价格仍然值得支持吗？</blockquote></p><p> When I last covered BioNTech back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当我上次在 2 月份报道 BioNTech 时，我对 BioNTech 股票的股价预测约为 200 美元，但这是基于其与辉瑞 (PFE) 联合开发的 Comirnaty COVID 疫苗的销售额在 2021 年达到约 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Releasing its Q2'21 results in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于 8 月初发布了 2021 年第二季度业绩，报告 6 个月收入为 85.6 亿美元，超出了我的预期，其股价达到了 388 美元的惊人峰值。</blockquote></p><p> At the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching >$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.</p><p><blockquote>截至撰写本文时，股价已回落至 277 美元，较 8 月份的峰值折价约 29%，但管理层预测全年收入约为 185 亿美元，净利润可能达到 135 亿美元以上（如果我们取 6 个月净利润数字 68 亿美元并翻倍），投资者可能会看到 4 倍的远期市销率和约 5 倍的远期市盈率，并认为 BioNTech 股票继续看起来很有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Essentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，有两个因素将决定 BioNTech 股票以当前价格是否值得购买，以及投资者应该考虑持有它们多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> The first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now approved to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and under consideration for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.</p><p><blockquote>首先是对其COVID疫苗Comirnaty的持续需求规模。可悲的是，来自这一来源的收入可能已经超出了市场最疯狂的预期，因为疫情拒绝消亡，而且现在美国批准对 65 岁以上的人和英国 50 岁以上的人进行加强注射，并且正在考虑对欧洲所有 16 岁以上的人进行加强注射，BioNTech 最终销售的 Comirnaty 注射数量似乎没有设定限制。</blockquote></p><p> The second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.</p><p><blockquote>第二个是信使-RNA技术的使用迁移到其他治疗模式，以针对广泛的疾病，这可能会在疗效和安全性方面挑战当前的护理标准。</blockquote></p><p> Only in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.</p><p><blockquote>只有在噩梦般的情况下，疫苗需求才会在未来2-3年内保持在当前水平，因此BioNTech的收入从长远来看不会保持在2021年的水平，除非它能够推出针对其他传染病、肿瘤学、自身免疫、炎症、再生医学等的新疫苗产品。</blockquote></p><p> To that end, BioNTech recently released a 70-slide presentation highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.</p><p><blockquote>为此，BioNTech 最近发布了一份 70 张幻灯片的演示文稿，重点介绍了其开发管道，并报告了上述所有治疗领域的进展。没有一个提到它的COVID疫苗，这说明BioNTech从来没有，也永远不会认为自己是一家纯粹的COVID疫苗公司。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，要在其他适应症中成功开发新的mRNA疗法还需要时间，而且也不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p> New challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised > $700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a >$120bn market cap valuation recently splashed out $3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.</p><p><blockquote>mRNA 领域正在出现新的挑战者，拥有强大的投资者支持和雄心勃勃的目标 - 例如，总部位于中国的制药公司 Abogen Biosciences 最近筹集了超过 7 亿美元的资金来开发 mRNA COVID 疫苗，而法国制药公司赛诺菲 (SNY) 市值超过 1200 亿美元最近斥资 32 亿美元收购了 Translate Bio 及其针对囊性纤维化和其他遗传疾病的信使 RNA 技术。</blockquote></p><p> 6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped >50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.</p><p><blockquote>6个月前，Moderna (mRNA)、BioNTech 和 CureVac 可能被认为是“三大”mRNA 先驱，但 CureVac 未能成功开发新冠疫苗，其市值蒸发了 50% 以上，而 Moderna 股票则实现了前所未有的高点，截至撰写本文时，交易价格为 390 美元，市值为 1570 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in other posts on Moderna itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个惊人的高估值，但正如我在上一篇关于 BioNTech 的帖子和其他关于 Moderna 本身的帖子中所说，如果该公司能够证明 mRNA 技术可以在任何治疗环境中发挥作用，那么估值可能会再次翻倍——正如它正在努力做到的那样。</blockquote></p><p> I would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.</p><p><blockquote>我当然认为 BioNTech 与 Moderna 的共同点比与 CureVac 的共同点更多——该公司在 2021 财年将获得与 Moderna 相似的收入，但其 750 亿美元的市值是 Moderna 的一半。</blockquote></p><p> That may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.</p><p><blockquote>这可能首先是由于市场认为 BioNTech 的成功很大程度上归功于辉瑞，而 Moderna 并不依赖大型制药合作伙伴，其次是由于 Moderna 非新冠项目的实力。</blockquote></p><p> In the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章的其余部分，我将仔细研究 BioNTech 的 Covid 收益及其长期发展管道，以突出短期和长期投资案例。</blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，BioNTech 的价值不低于 Moderna 的一半，而且 Moderna 本身相对于其开发 mRNA 疫苗和其他治疗模式疗法的机会可能被低估。</blockquote></p><p> As such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我的感觉是，根据 Comirnaty 的最新进展以及加强注射的引入，投资者可以以当前价格买入 BioNTech 股票，并对近期约 30% 的上涨空间持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> A dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a >$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>如果 2022 年后 COVID 收入开始下滑（我预计这种情况会发生），并且很明显，那么接下来可能会出现下滑，但这应该会被管道进展所抵消，这表明 BioNTech 可以保持超过 1000 亿美元的市值，甚至可能处于预期的低端。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outlook for Comirnaty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Comirnaty 展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in >130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech的COVID疫苗——现在被称为Comirnaty，得到了FDA的完全批准，并在130多个国家用于抗击冠状病毒。</blockquote></p><p> In the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped >1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21 earnings presentation.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年前 6 个月，BioNTech 和辉瑞运送了超过 10 亿剂 Comirnaty，签署了供应合同，将在年底前再交付 22 亿剂，并承诺再向低收入和中等收入国家供应 20 亿剂。 BioNTech 21 年第二季度收益报告中的总结。</blockquote></p><p> Alongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine failed to achieve the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's >95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>除了与欧盟签署的提供 9 亿剂疫苗的协议外，CureVac 还可能提供另外 9 亿剂疫苗，这些疫苗在其关键试验中未能达到所需的功效（仅达到 47%，而辉瑞/BioNTech 的功效超过 95%）还有 9000 万剂疫苗将运往美国，2022 年可能还会有 9000 万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Since August, however, Comirnaty has received an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".</p><p><blockquote>然而，自8月以来，Comirnaty已获得紧急使用授权（“EUA”），可用作加强疫苗，用于65岁及以上的个人以及某些高危人群中18至64岁的个人，其依据是该疫苗“对新型冠状病毒和所有当前测试的变种产生高中和滴度”。</blockquote></p><p> Covid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the New York Times.</p><p><blockquote>根据《纽约时报》的数据，Covid只是拒绝消失，过去两个月报告的感染、住院和死亡人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> Just as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.</p><p><blockquote>正如它是美国批准的第一个COVID疫苗一样，Comirnaty现在是第一个被批准作为加强注射的疫苗，随着时间的推移，加强注射将扩展到整个美国人口和世界各地的人口，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。展望未来，随着COVID成为地方病，似乎也可能需要每年或每两年注射一次。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我认为 BioNTech 在未来几年不太可能在 2021 年复制其 180 亿美元的销售额（相当于略低于 10 亿剂）。</blockquote></p><p> At maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at >$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech 在最大产能下每年可以生产约 20 亿剂疫苗，因此我们可以相当肯定每家公司的年销售额上限都在 200 亿美元以上，但两家公司的平均销售价格也有可能在 2021 年后下降，随着疫苗的推出从发达国家转向发展中国家。</blockquote></p><p> Arguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve >50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，如果每个全球公民每年接种两次疫苗，每年的需求约为160亿剂，作为主要供应商，BioNTech每年销售10亿剂疫苗不会有问题。最近与欧盟达成的协议与这样的数字相差不远，但它们可能不可重复，从逻辑上讲，在我看来，全球任何人口都不太可能在一年内实现超过50%的人口疫苗接种率。</blockquote></p><p> As such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我预计 BioNTech 在 2021 年之后的任何一年都不会从 Comirnaty 销售中赚取两位数的数十亿美元，而且今年之后其利润率很可能会缩小——2021 年前 6 个月实现的近 80% 的利润率从经济或道德角度来看也是根本不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> I would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.</p><p><blockquote>出于上述原因，我预计 2022 年至 2025 年间 BioNTech 从 Comirnaty 获得的平均收入约为 80 亿美元，平均利润率约为 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>这给我的市销率约为 9.4 倍，市盈率约为 19 倍——这不是特别有吸引力，但很现实，对于一家像 BioNTech 这样有前途的公司来说，考虑到它的产品线，也许是一个强大的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outlook for Pipeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管道展望</b></blockquote></p><p> When we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 BioNTech 和 Moderna 都无法现实地依赖其 COVID 疫苗销售的收入或利润率长期维持在当前水平时，它们的估值（分别为 750 亿美元和 1530 亿美元）可能看起来太高了。</blockquote></p><p> But believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>但 mRNA 技术的信徒——以及为什么没有人会对像 mRNA 这样强大的技术感到兴奋，这种技术可以有效地指导细胞制造任何蛋白质——可能会觉得这两家公司都被严重低估了。</blockquote></p><p> The key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，关键问题是每家公司是否能够提供人们所希望的医学革命——针对许多/所有疾病类型的个性化疫苗，根据患者的特定基因特征量身定制——需要多长时间，失败的风险是多少，以及在过渡时期内，每家公司的股价会发生什么变化。</blockquote></p><p> The first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.</p><p><blockquote>第一个也是最明显的目标是传染病——然后是肿瘤学、CAR-T细胞疗法、免疫疗法，然后扩展到多种模式，涵盖任何投资者都能想到的大多数疾病类型。</blockquote></p><p> 12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在 12 个月前，BioNTech 的传染病产品线在很大程度上还不为人知，但受到 Comirnaty 成功的鼓舞，BioNTech 现在拥有正在开发的疟疾、结核病和艾滋病毒疫苗、正在临床开发的 10 种针对传染病的 mRNA 疫苗，以及与辉瑞联合开发的流感疫苗，这意味着两家公司愿意长期合作——也许合并甚至是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，BioNTech 将提供 5 项针对实体瘤的疫苗试验更新，利用双特异性、CD40 和 CAR-T 细胞疗法，主要针对实体瘤，启动 3 项针对黑色素瘤、头颈癌和结直肠癌的 2 期试验，以及 7 项 1 期试验，包括其流感疫苗计划。</blockquote></p><p> All of the company's plans are laid out in its latest investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的所有计划都在其最新的投资者演示中有所阐述——与再生元（REGN）、基因泰克（罗氏子公司）、赛诺菲以及辉瑞等制药巨头合作。</blockquote></p><p> There are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.</p><p><blockquote>共有15个肿瘤学项目，6个传染病疫苗（公认仍处于临床前阶段），靶向PD-1/PDL1的疗法，百时美施贵宝（BMY）的Opdivo和默沙东（MRK）的Keytruda等癌症重磅药物的靶点，细胞疗法，以及细胞因子抑制剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> My point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>我对 BioNTech 和 Moderna 的看法是，两家公司的行为越来越像大型制药公司——预计它们的创收资产可能不会有很长的保质期，并且明白它们必须提供新药以支持当前的长期估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.</p><p><blockquote>回顾 BioNTech 最新的投资者演示（我鼓励所有潜在投资者这样做），我对 BioNTech 在一年内取得的巨大进步感到震惊，不仅仅是从发展的角度来看——该公司一直有远大的抱负——但从组织和公关的角度来看也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，毫无疑问，市场仍然将 BioNTech 视为纯粹的新冠疫苗，任何每年出售 180 亿美元资产的公司都不太可能将投资者的注意力从该资产上转移开。</blockquote></p><p> But BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，BioNtech 及其管理团队比大多数人都聪明，就像他们的技术一样，而且它正在进行长远规划。</blockquote></p><p> Data readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤学领域的数据读数（今年年底前应该有 5 个）以及新传染病疫苗商业化的进展将迅速成为评估 BioNTech 股票真实价值的关键标准。</blockquote></p><p> There is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者无需担心 BioNtech 的股价因这些项目的负面数据读数而暴跌——当时年收入达到了两位数十亿美元——但这些项目将越来越多地取代 Comirnaty 销售成为股市的称重机器，这对于 mRNA 科学的粉丝来说应该是个好消息——我就是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> It may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要时间，但在我看来，BioNTech 代表着生物技术爱好者令人兴奋的买入和持有机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457813-biontech-stock-price-buoyancy-depends-on-comirnaty-sales-but-long-term-value-on-pipeline-bntx\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457813-biontech-stock-price-buoyancy-depends-on-comirnaty-sales-but-long-term-value-on-pipeline-bntx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149815025","content_text":"Summary\n\nBioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on investment since its 2019 IPO.\nSales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty will earn the company in excess of $18bn in 2021, management believes - firmly ahead of expectations.\nThese revenues are likely not sustainable, however - I expect them to dip below $10bn from 2022.\nNevertheless, BioNTech has never been about a single vaccine and the pipeline excites.\nmRNA technology is here to stay and BioNTech's pipeline will soon become the key measure for valuing the company. It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.\n\nPM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a >1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?\nWhen I last covered BioNTech back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.\nReleasing its Q2'21 results in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.\nAt the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching >$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.\nEssentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.\nThe first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now approved to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and under consideration for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.\nThe second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.\nOnly in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.\nTo that end, BioNTech recently released a 70-slide presentation highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.\nEven so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.\nNew challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised > $700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a >$120bn market cap valuation recently splashed out $3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.\n6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped >50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.\nThat is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in other posts on Moderna itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.\nI would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.\nThat may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.\nIn the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.\nMy thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.\nAs such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.\nA dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a >$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.\nOutlook for Comirnaty\nPfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in >130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.\nIn the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped >1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21 earnings presentation.\nAlongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine failed to achieve the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's >95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.\nSince August, however, Comirnaty has received an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".\nCovid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the New York Times.\nJust as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.\nWith that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.\nAt maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at >$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.\nArguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve >50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.\nAs such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.\nI would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.\nThat gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.\nOutlook for Pipeline\nWhen we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.\nBut believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.\nThe key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.\nThe first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.\n12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.\nBy the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.\nAll of the company's plans are laid out in its latest investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.\nThere are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.\nConclusion\nMy point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.\nReviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.\nThere's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.\nBut BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.\nData readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.\nThere is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.\nIt may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865442253"}
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