[惊讶]_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-30

[惊讶]

Jobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>就业，就业就业：美联储严阵以待，10月份焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":865889903,"tweetId":"865889903","gmtCreate":1632967170559,"gmtModify":1632967170704,"author":{"id":3581245996241049,"idStr":"3581245996241049","authorId":3581245996241049,"authorIdStr":"3581245996241049","name":"q14n","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9026569979a298d00d3912fffdcb270e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[惊讶]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[惊讶]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[惊讶]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865889903","repostId":1182846518,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182846518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1632963637,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182846518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>就业，就业就业：美联储严阵以待，10月份焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182846518","media":"Benzinga","summary":"For Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads i","content":"For Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads in October. That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.<blockquote>对于美联储观察人士来说，9月22日是一个“灵光一现”的时刻，可能有助于确定华尔街10月份的走向。当天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示“缩减”可能比以往任何时候都更接近，从而提振了市场。</blockquote> While the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.<blockquote>尽管未来一个月包括许多可能影响市场的事件——包括财报季的开始、华盛顿和中国的潜在戏剧性事件，以及政府对第三季度经济增长预期的首次亮相——但美联储仍然是头号新闻。</blockquote> Why this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.<blockquote>为什么如此关注美联储，以及美联储可能“缩减”货币刺激的深奥概念是什么？因为进入十月初，这可以说是华尔街最关心的问题，因为它与借贷成本有关。美联储至少已经开始在时间框架上多谈一点，随着这个月的继续，我们从他们那里得到的任何明确信息都可能会受到非常有利的看待。请记住，不确定性不是华尔街的朋友。人们倾向于喜欢清晰。</blockquote> For the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.<blockquote>在过去的一年半里，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司每月都在抢购1200亿美元的债券。这是一项旨在降低消费者借贷成本并帮助公司在疫情困难时期维持运营的战略。</blockquote> However, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者一直在不耐烦地等待美联储拆除经济的训练轮，戴上一些手套来对抗不断上升的通胀。它可以通过“缩减”或削减每月购买的债券数量来实现这两个目标。</blockquote> A taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日表示，美联储“最早可能在11月的下一次会议上”宣布缩减规模，但他补充说，具体时间将取决于未来几周经济持续强劲的表现。关键最终可能是美国即将发布的9月份就业报告。劳工部10月8日。</blockquote> It would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示，需要一份“相当好”的就业报告才能满足缩减规模进展的考验。“测试几乎已经通过了，”他补充道，他不需要看到一份“非常好”的就业报告，只需要一份像样的报告。他补充说，其他美联储官员认为，缩减规模的考验已经得到满足。</blockquote> September Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month<blockquote>9月份就业报告是月初的焦点</blockquote> By specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.<blockquote>通过特别提及10月8日的就业报告，鲍威尔提醒投资者，他和美联储的其他人可能正在关注该数据，以帮助他们决定下一步的缩减措施。这很可能意味着几乎所有参与市场的人都会密切关注该报告。</blockquote> It also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of&nbsp; “decent?”<blockquote>它还将大量注意力放在一个词上，以及一旦报告出来如何解释它。鲍威尔希望看到一份“体面”的9月份就业报告，以帮助确定宣布缩减规模的时机，但“体面”的定义是什么？</blockquote> Job growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.<blockquote>过去三个月平均每月就业增长75万人，但8月份就业增长低于30万人。然而，在疫情关闭和重新开放之前，即使每月20万个新工作岗位也被认为是卓越的标准。</blockquote> What’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.<blockquote>现在的体面可能是旁观者眼中的，但让我们想象一下，它必须至少在9月份创造的235,000个就业岗位的范围内，甚至可能更高。只有鲍威尔真正知道。</blockquote> It’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.<blockquote>现在寻找分析师对9月份就业增长的估计还为时过早，但它们可能会在10月的前几天开始出现。我们知道，新冠疫情的德尔塔变异毒株严重影响了8月份的就业增长，而达美航空仍然是整个9月份的一个主要问题。但8月份的报告中有一些萌芽，如果这些萌芽持续到9月份，可能会有助于就业增长。</blockquote> The hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.<blockquote>8月份，由于德尔塔变异毒株，餐馆、酒店、航空公司、赌场和其他“重新开业”的企业放缓了招聘，酒店业的就业岗位受到了巨大打击。与此同时，运输、仓储和制造业的就业增长相当“不错”，这或许是整个经济对产品需求增加的迹象。如果这些趋势在9月份继续下去，可能会在一定程度上使就业增长达到美联储希望看到的水平。</blockquote> “Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes<blockquote>“周期性”板块因缩减希望而获得早期提振</blockquote> Immediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日发表讲话后，表现最好的板块是金融和能源。这并不太令人惊讶，因为它们被称为“周期性”行业，在经济增长时往往表现更好。除非有任何重大负面消息，否则这种趋势可能会持续到10月初，而公用事业和主食等所谓的“防御性”行业可能会因债券收益率上升的前景而面临一些压力。</blockquote> Although the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.<blockquote>尽管美联储距离实际加息可能还有很长的路要走，但在鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，基准10年期国债收益率徘徊在1.5%附近的三个月高点，有时市场上的收益率可能是交易员认为美联储最终计划做什么的先兆。美联储的最新预测基本上显示，明年某个时候首次加息的可能性为50/50。</blockquote> At this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.<blockquote>在这一点上，感觉市场实际上可能会欢迎美联储变得更加鹰派，因为人们最近最担心的事情可以说是通胀。缩减规模并最终加息是美联储可以用来应对物价上涨的工具，尽管鲍威尔认为我们看到的通胀是暂时的，主要是由经济重新开放造成的供应瓶颈造成的。将于10月份发布的9月份消费者和生产者价格指数报告在发布时可能会受到密切关注。</blockquote> If the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.<blockquote>如果收益率上升持续到10月初，预计银行股可能会受益。他们的盈利能力很大程度上取决于利率情况，较高的利率通常有助于他们的利润率。小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT)对银行的权重很大，因此如果它在10月初表现良好，这可能是人们预计11月缩减规模的信号。</blockquote> Small-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.<blockquote>小盘股的强势——如果我们看到的话——也可能意味着人们对国内经济更加乐观。这些较小的公司往往在本土开展大部分业务，因此它们通常是美国经济健康状况的良好晴雨表。</blockquote> FIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER.&nbsp;This year-to-date chart of the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;(NDX—candlestick), the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX—purple line), and the&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>图1：又一个季度结束。这张年初至今的图表纳斯达克100（NDX-烛台），标普500指数（SPX-紫线），以及罗素2000指数（RUT-蓝线）显示大盘股指数在今年早些时候输给小盘股后，最近几周跑赢了小盘股。“巨型”科技和通信服务板块最近拉升了SPX和NDX，但现在可能面临债券收益率上升的压力。数据来源：富时罗素、标准普尔道琼斯指数、纳斯达克。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Riding into Earnings<blockquote>盈利</blockquote> There’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;The major Wall Street banks like&nbsp;JP Morgan Chase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.<blockquote>除了美联储和棒球季后赛，10月份还有其他事情要做（加油白袜队！）.10月是第三季度财报季的开始，从月中的大银行开始，然后是所有“FAANG”股票及其科技表亲微软华尔街的主要银行喜欢摩根大通和高盛今年迄今为止，该公司的盈利表现令人印象深刻，尽管面临诸多阻力，但仍继续寻找提高利润的方法。如果美联储真的认真对待更鹰派的政策，那么收益率上升可能会成为银行箭筒中的另一支箭。与往常一样，倾听金融和其他行业的首席执行官对经济的看法非常重要，特别是供应链问题和新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的任何影响。</blockquote> Early analyst estimates for Q3 S&amp;P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&amp;P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.<blockquote>分析师对标普500第三季度盈利增长的早期预测显示，其将继续处于历史高位，但远低于第二季度的出色表现。研究公司FactSet目前预测第三季度盈利增长27.6%，高于6月30日预测的24.2%。看到预期上升总是好的，因为它可能反映了公司的积极指导。此外，FactSet表示，第二季度，超过85%的标普500公司的盈利超出了分析师的预期，因此，如果第三季度与第二季度类似，27.6%的数字可能还有很大的上升空间。</blockquote> China, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points<blockquote>中国债务上限被视为可能的痛点</blockquote> China could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.<blockquote>在恒大恐慌之后，中国也可能仍然是一个焦点。9月底，这家陷入困境的中国房地产开发商表示将开始偿还部分债务。然而，北京方面正在发出信号，表示可能会让这家房地产巨头在部分债务上违约，即海外投资者持有的债务。</blockquote> It’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week.&nbsp;For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.<blockquote>有趣的是，在9月20日华尔街遭遇抛售导致股市单日大幅下跌后，恒大的担忧逐渐淡出人们的视线。然而，不要对恒大问题不屑一顾，即使那周晚些时候大多数股指反弹。就目前而言，它似乎处于背景中，但这些故事有卷土重来的习惯。</blockquote> Another story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.<blockquote>另一个可能在10月份影响市场的离家更近的故事是华盛顿特区的债务上限之争。几位前任财政部长以及现任财政部长珍妮特·耶伦都警告说，如果这个问题不尽快得到解决，经济将面临危险。早在2011年，在一场类似的国会斗争中，美国就差点债务违约，股市也艰难度过了那场危机。如果这种情况继续下去，不排除会出现更多斗争，但就目前而言，投资者似乎基本上假设这个问题会在持续的党派争吵中得到解决，而不会出现太多动荡。我们将拭目以待。</blockquote> Besides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.<blockquote>除了就业和通胀数据之外，10月份另一份值得关注的重要政府报告是政府对第三季度经济增长的首次估计。将于10月28日发布的国内生产总值(GDP)报告将是投资者看到的第一份关于整体经济如何应对德尔塔变异毒株的可靠报告，这显然有助于降低8月和9月初的就业增长和消费者信心。</blockquote> The Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.<blockquote>美联储目前预计今年GDP仅增长5.9%，而6月份的预测为7%。这可能反映了德尔塔变异毒株的影响。话虽如此，美联储目前预计2023年增长率为3.8%，高于此前3.3%的预期。美联储对2023年GDP的预测随后下滑至2.5%，但略高于美联储之前的估计。</blockquote> Even GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.<blockquote>考虑到自2008年经济衰退以来人们已经习惯了低于3%的增长，即使是5.9%和3.8%的GDP增长看起来也相当令人印象深刻。10月份最终不会告诉我们GDP将走向何方，但它可能是市场在年底前可能表现的一个好兆头，特别是如果我们从美联储获得更多明确信息的话。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>就业，就业就业：美联储严阵以待，10月份焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>就业，就业就业：美联储严阵以待，10月份焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-09-30 09:00\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFor Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads in October. That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.<blockquote>对于美联储观察人士来说，9月22日是一个“灵光一现”的时刻，可能有助于确定华尔街10月份的走向。当天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示“缩减”可能比以往任何时候都更接近，从而提振了市场。</blockquote> While the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.<blockquote>尽管未来一个月包括许多可能影响市场的事件——包括财报季的开始、华盛顿和中国的潜在戏剧性事件，以及政府对第三季度经济增长预期的首次亮相——但美联储仍然是头号新闻。</blockquote> Why this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.<blockquote>为什么如此关注美联储，以及美联储可能“缩减”货币刺激的深奥概念是什么？因为进入十月初，这可以说是华尔街最关心的问题，因为它与借贷成本有关。美联储至少已经开始在时间框架上多谈一点，随着这个月的继续，我们从他们那里得到的任何明确信息都可能会受到非常有利的看待。请记住，不确定性不是华尔街的朋友。人们倾向于喜欢清晰。</blockquote> For the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.<blockquote>在过去的一年半里，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司每月都在抢购1200亿美元的债券。这是一项旨在降低消费者借贷成本并帮助公司在疫情困难时期维持运营的战略。</blockquote> However, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者一直在不耐烦地等待美联储拆除经济的训练轮，戴上一些手套来对抗不断上升的通胀。它可以通过“缩减”或削减每月购买的债券数量来实现这两个目标。</blockquote> A taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日表示，美联储“最早可能在11月的下一次会议上”宣布缩减规模，但他补充说，具体时间将取决于未来几周经济持续强劲的表现。关键最终可能是美国即将发布的9月份就业报告。劳工部10月8日。</blockquote> It would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示，需要一份“相当好”的就业报告才能满足缩减规模进展的考验。“测试几乎已经通过了，”他补充道，他不需要看到一份“非常好”的就业报告，只需要一份像样的报告。他补充说，其他美联储官员认为，缩减规模的考验已经得到满足。</blockquote> September Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month<blockquote>9月份就业报告是月初的焦点</blockquote> By specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.<blockquote>通过特别提及10月8日的就业报告，鲍威尔提醒投资者，他和美联储的其他人可能正在关注该数据，以帮助他们决定下一步的缩减措施。这很可能意味着几乎所有参与市场的人都会密切关注该报告。</blockquote> It also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of&nbsp; “decent?”<blockquote>它还将大量注意力放在一个词上，以及一旦报告出来如何解释它。鲍威尔希望看到一份“体面”的9月份就业报告，以帮助确定宣布缩减规模的时机，但“体面”的定义是什么？</blockquote> Job growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.<blockquote>过去三个月平均每月就业增长75万人，但8月份就业增长低于30万人。然而，在疫情关闭和重新开放之前，即使每月20万个新工作岗位也被认为是卓越的标准。</blockquote> What’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.<blockquote>现在的体面可能是旁观者眼中的，但让我们想象一下，它必须至少在9月份创造的235,000个就业岗位的范围内，甚至可能更高。只有鲍威尔真正知道。</blockquote> It’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.<blockquote>现在寻找分析师对9月份就业增长的估计还为时过早，但它们可能会在10月的前几天开始出现。我们知道，新冠疫情的德尔塔变异毒株严重影响了8月份的就业增长，而达美航空仍然是整个9月份的一个主要问题。但8月份的报告中有一些萌芽，如果这些萌芽持续到9月份，可能会有助于就业增长。</blockquote> The hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.<blockquote>8月份，由于德尔塔变异毒株，餐馆、酒店、航空公司、赌场和其他“重新开业”的企业放缓了招聘，酒店业的就业岗位受到了巨大打击。与此同时，运输、仓储和制造业的就业增长相当“不错”，这或许是整个经济对产品需求增加的迹象。如果这些趋势在9月份继续下去，可能会在一定程度上使就业增长达到美联储希望看到的水平。</blockquote> “Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes<blockquote>“周期性”板块因缩减希望而获得早期提振</blockquote> Immediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日发表讲话后，表现最好的板块是金融和能源。这并不太令人惊讶，因为它们被称为“周期性”行业，在经济增长时往往表现更好。除非有任何重大负面消息，否则这种趋势可能会持续到10月初，而公用事业和主食等所谓的“防御性”行业可能会因债券收益率上升的前景而面临一些压力。</blockquote> Although the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.<blockquote>尽管美联储距离实际加息可能还有很长的路要走，但在鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，基准10年期国债收益率徘徊在1.5%附近的三个月高点，有时市场上的收益率可能是交易员认为美联储最终计划做什么的先兆。美联储的最新预测基本上显示，明年某个时候首次加息的可能性为50/50。</blockquote> At this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.<blockquote>在这一点上，感觉市场实际上可能会欢迎美联储变得更加鹰派，因为人们最近最担心的事情可以说是通胀。缩减规模并最终加息是美联储可以用来应对物价上涨的工具，尽管鲍威尔认为我们看到的通胀是暂时的，主要是由经济重新开放造成的供应瓶颈造成的。将于10月份发布的9月份消费者和生产者价格指数报告在发布时可能会受到密切关注。</blockquote> If the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.<blockquote>如果收益率上升持续到10月初，预计银行股可能会受益。他们的盈利能力很大程度上取决于利率情况，较高的利率通常有助于他们的利润率。小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT)对银行的权重很大，因此如果它在10月初表现良好，这可能是人们预计11月缩减规模的信号。</blockquote> Small-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.<blockquote>小盘股的强势——如果我们看到的话——也可能意味着人们对国内经济更加乐观。这些较小的公司往往在本土开展大部分业务，因此它们通常是美国经济健康状况的良好晴雨表。</blockquote> FIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER.&nbsp;This year-to-date chart of the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;(NDX—candlestick), the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX—purple line), and the&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>图1：又一个季度结束。这张年初至今的图表纳斯达克100（NDX-烛台），标普500指数（SPX-紫线），以及罗素2000指数（RUT-蓝线）显示大盘股指数在今年早些时候输给小盘股后，最近几周跑赢了小盘股。“巨型”科技和通信服务板块最近拉升了SPX和NDX，但现在可能面临债券收益率上升的压力。数据来源：富时罗素、标准普尔道琼斯指数、纳斯达克。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Riding into Earnings<blockquote>盈利</blockquote> There’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;The major Wall Street banks like&nbsp;JP Morgan Chase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.<blockquote>除了美联储和棒球季后赛，10月份还有其他事情要做（加油白袜队！）.10月是第三季度财报季的开始，从月中的大银行开始，然后是所有“FAANG”股票及其科技表亲微软华尔街的主要银行喜欢摩根大通和高盛今年迄今为止，该公司的盈利表现令人印象深刻，尽管面临诸多阻力，但仍继续寻找提高利润的方法。如果美联储真的认真对待更鹰派的政策，那么收益率上升可能会成为银行箭筒中的另一支箭。与往常一样，倾听金融和其他行业的首席执行官对经济的看法非常重要，特别是供应链问题和新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的任何影响。</blockquote> Early analyst estimates for Q3 S&amp;P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&amp;P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.<blockquote>分析师对标普500第三季度盈利增长的早期预测显示，其将继续处于历史高位，但远低于第二季度的出色表现。研究公司FactSet目前预测第三季度盈利增长27.6%，高于6月30日预测的24.2%。看到预期上升总是好的，因为它可能反映了公司的积极指导。此外，FactSet表示，第二季度，超过85%的标普500公司的盈利超出了分析师的预期，因此，如果第三季度与第二季度类似，27.6%的数字可能还有很大的上升空间。</blockquote> China, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points<blockquote>中国债务上限被视为可能的痛点</blockquote> China could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.<blockquote>在恒大恐慌之后，中国也可能仍然是一个焦点。9月底，这家陷入困境的中国房地产开发商表示将开始偿还部分债务。然而，北京方面正在发出信号，表示可能会让这家房地产巨头在部分债务上违约，即海外投资者持有的债务。</blockquote> It’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week.&nbsp;For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.<blockquote>有趣的是，在9月20日华尔街遭遇抛售导致股市单日大幅下跌后，恒大的担忧逐渐淡出人们的视线。然而，不要对恒大问题不屑一顾，即使那周晚些时候大多数股指反弹。就目前而言，它似乎处于背景中，但这些故事有卷土重来的习惯。</blockquote> Another story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.<blockquote>另一个可能在10月份影响市场的离家更近的故事是华盛顿特区的债务上限之争。几位前任财政部长以及现任财政部长珍妮特·耶伦都警告说，如果这个问题不尽快得到解决，经济将面临危险。早在2011年，在一场类似的国会斗争中，美国就差点债务违约，股市也艰难度过了那场危机。如果这种情况继续下去，不排除会出现更多斗争，但就目前而言，投资者似乎基本上假设这个问题会在持续的党派争吵中得到解决，而不会出现太多动荡。我们将拭目以待。</blockquote> Besides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.<blockquote>除了就业和通胀数据之外，10月份另一份值得关注的重要政府报告是政府对第三季度经济增长的首次估计。将于10月28日发布的国内生产总值(GDP)报告将是投资者看到的第一份关于整体经济如何应对德尔塔变异毒株的可靠报告，这显然有助于降低8月和9月初的就业增长和消费者信心。</blockquote> The Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.<blockquote>美联储目前预计今年GDP仅增长5.9%，而6月份的预测为7%。这可能反映了德尔塔变异毒株的影响。话虽如此，美联储目前预计2023年增长率为3.8%，高于此前3.3%的预期。美联储对2023年GDP的预测随后下滑至2.5%，但略高于美联储之前的估计。</blockquote> Even GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.<blockquote>考虑到自2008年经济衰退以来人们已经习惯了低于3%的增长，即使是5.9%和3.8%的GDP增长看起来也相当令人印象深刻。10月份最终不会告诉我们GDP将走向何方，但它可能是市场在年底前可能表现的一个好兆头，特别是如果我们从美联储获得更多明确信息的话。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182846518","content_text":"For Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads in October. That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.\nWhile the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.\nWhy this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.\nFor the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.\nHowever, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.\nA taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.\nIt would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.\nSeptember Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month\nBy specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.\nIt also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of  “decent?”\nJob growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.\nWhat’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.\nIt’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.\nThe hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.\n“Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes\nImmediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.\nAlthough the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.\nAt this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.\nIf the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.\nSmall-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.\nFIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER. This year-to-date chart of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX—candlestick), the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line), and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nRiding into Earnings\nThere’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin Microsoft The major Wall Street banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.\nEarly analyst estimates for Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.\nChina, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points\nChina could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.\nIt’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week. For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.\nAnother story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.\nBesides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.\nThe Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.\nEven GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865889903"}