junkow
2021-09-27
Good to hear that
Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90<blockquote>高盛将年终油价目标上调至90美元</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866039493,"tweetId":"866039493","gmtCreate":1632710308512,"gmtModify":1632798384026,"author":{"id":3581649737390446,"idStr":"3581649737390446","authorId":3581649737390446,"authorIdStr":"3581649737390446","name":"junkow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ce9c0f4d7bb599e41fc75b34bf8f24","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good to hear that</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good to hear that</p></body></html>","text":"Good to hear that","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866039493","repostId":1153063901,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153063901","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632709779,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153063901?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 10:29","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90<blockquote>高盛将年终油价目标上调至90美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153063901","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Just days after Goldman's head commodity analyst Jeff Currie told Bloomberg TV that the bankanticipa","content":"<p>Just days after Goldman's head commodity analyst Jeff Currie told Bloomberg TV that the bankanticipates oil spiking to $90 if the winter is colder than usual, on Sunday afternoon Goldman went ahead and made that its base case and in a note from energy strategist Damien Courvalin, he writes that with Brent prices reaching new highs since October 2018, the bank now forecasts that this rally will continue, \"with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. $80/bbl previously.\"</p><p><blockquote>就在高盛首席大宗商品分析师杰夫·柯里 (Jeff Currie) 告诉彭博电视台，如果冬季比往常更冷，该行预计油价将飙升至 90 美元几天后，周日下午，高盛继续提出了这一基本观点，并在能源策略师达米安·库瓦林 (Damien Courvalin) 的一份报告中写道，随着布伦特原油价格创下 2018 年 10 月以来的新高，该行现在预测这种涨势将持续下去，“我们的年终布伦特原油价格预测为 90 美元/桶，而之前为 80 美元/桶。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ecb93c9273e8993f2a588904c9e0fa\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">What tipped the scales is that while Goldman has long held a bullish oil view, \"the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.\"</p><p><blockquote>令人震惊的是，尽管高盛长期以来一直持有看涨的石油观点，但“当前全球石油供需赤字比我们预期的要大，全球需求从三角洲影响中恢复的速度甚至快于我们上述共识预测，全球供应仍低于我们低于共识预测。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c92ef4eaeb72fc838ea4a5b251c3c7\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"779\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among the supply factors cited by Goldman is hurricane Ida - the \"most bullish hurricane in US history\" - which more than offset the ramp-up in OPEC+ production since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>高盛引用的供应因素之一是飓风艾达——“美国历史上最看涨的飓风”——它远远抵消了自 7 月份以来 OPEC+ 产量的增加，而非 OPEC+ 非页岩产量继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8320c0336248104108f7e386eb699ff8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Meanwhile, as noted above, on the demand side Goldman cited low hospitalization rates which are leading more countries to re-open, including to international travel in particularly COVID-averse countries in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，如上所述，在需求方面，高盛指出，低住院率正在导致更多国家重新开放，包括在亚洲特别反对新冠疫情的国家进行国际旅行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32169f05ef56417ab3dbbd9295cc770e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"410\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, from a seasonal standpoint, Courvalin sees winter demand risks as \"further now squarely skewed to the upside\" as the global gas shortage will increase oil fired power generation.</p><p><blockquote>最后，从季节性角度来看，Courvalin 认为冬季需求风险“现在进一步倾向于上行”，因为全球天然气短缺将增加燃油发电。</blockquote></p><p> From a fundamental standpoint, the current c.4.5 mb/d observable inventory draws are the largest on record, including for global SPRs and oil on water, and follow the longest deficit on record, started in June 2020.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，目前约 4.5 mb/d 的可观察库存消耗是有记录以来最大的，包括全球 SPR 和水上石油，并且是在 2020 年 6 月开始的有记录以来最长的赤字之后。</blockquote></p><p> For the oil bears, Goldman does not see this deficit as reversing in coming months as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability for OPEC+ to ramp up, with the shale supply response just starting.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油空头来说，高盛认为这种赤字不会在未来几个月内逆转，因为其规模将压倒欧佩克+增产的意愿和能力，页岩油供应反应才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62454b6c085d29e6ba76cd2d0c7d7b81\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"716\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>This sets the stage for inventories to fall to their lowest level since 2013 by year-end (after adjusting for pipeline fill), supporting further backwardation in the oil forward curve where positioning remains low.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这为库存在年底前降至 2013 年以来的最低水平（经管道填充调整后）创造条件，支持石油远期曲线中的进一步现价，而该曲线的定位仍然较低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e01fe449ec33a6a1d1bf50d067b495bb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But what about a production response? While Goldman does expect short-cycle production to respond by 2022 at the bank's higher price forecast, from core-OPEC, Russia and shale, this according to Goldman,<b>will only lay bare the structural nature of the oil market repricing.</b>To be sure, there will likely be a time to be tactically bearish in 2022, especially if a US-Iran deal is eventually reached. The bank's base-case assumption is for such an agreement to be reached in April, leading the bank to then trim its price target to an $80/bbl price forecast in 2Q22-4Q22 (vs. its 4Q21-1Q22 $85/bbl quarterly average forecast). This would, however, remain a tactical call and a likely timespread trade according to Courvalin, with long-dated oil prices poised to reset higher from current levels, especially as the hedging momentum shifts from US producer selling to airline buying (a move which Goldman says to position for with a long Dec-22 Brent and short Dec-22 Brent put trade recommendations).</p><p><blockquote>但是生产反应呢？高盛表示，虽然高盛确实预计到 2022 年，短周期产量将根据该行对核心石油输出国组织、俄罗斯和页岩油的较高价格预测做出反应，<b>只会暴露石油市场重新定价的结构性本质。</b>可以肯定的是，2022年可能会有一段时间在战术上看跌，特别是如果美伊最终达成协议的话。该银行的基本假设是在4月份达成这样的协议，导致该银行随后将2022年第二季度-2022年第四季度的价格目标下调至80美元/桶（而2021年第四季度-2022年第一季度的季度平均预测为85美元/桶）。然而，Courvalin 表示，这仍将是一种战术性看涨期权，并且可能是一种时间价差交易，长期油价有望从当前水平重置更高，特别是当对冲势头从美国生产商抛售转向航空公司购买时（高盛表示，此举将通过 12 月 22 日布伦特原油多头和 12 月 22 日布伦特原油空头看跌交易建议进行定位）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the lack of long-cycle capex response - here you can thank the green crazy sweeping the world - the quickly diminishing OPEC spare capacity (Goldman expects normalization by early 2022), the inability for shale producers to sustain production growth (given their low reinvestment rate targets) and oil service and carbon cost inflation<b>will all instead point to the need for sustainably higher long-dated oil prices</b>. Remarkably, Goldman now expects the market to return to a structural deficit by 2H23, which leads it to raise its 2023 oil price forecast from $65/bbl to $85/bbl, and the mid-cycle valuation oil price used by Goldman's equity analysts to $70/bbl.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，缺乏长周期资本支出反应——在这里你可以感谢席卷全球的绿色疯狂——欧佩克备用产能迅速减少（高盛预计到 2022 年初实现正常化）、页岩油生产商无法维持产量增长（鉴于其低再投资率目标）以及石油服务和碳成本通胀<b>相反，所有这些都将指向长期可持续较高的油价的必要性</b>值得注意的是，高盛现在预计市场将在 2023 年下半年恢复结构性赤字，这导致其将 2023 年油价预测从 65 美元/桶上调至 85 美元/桶，并将高盛股票分析师使用的周期中期估值油价上调至 70 美元/桶。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d7d4a9d5f515b5b0de4f63db881a2a2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Translation:<b>expect a slew of price hikes on energy stocks in the coming days from Goldman.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>预计未来几天高盛将大幅上调能源股价格。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, where could Goldman's forecast - which would infuriate the white house as gasoline prices are about to explode higher - be wrong? For what it's worth, the bank sees the greatest risk on the timeline of its bullish view. On the demand side, it would take a potentially new variant that renders vaccine ineffective. Beyond that, however, the bank expects limited downside risk from China, with its economists not expecting a hard landing and with our demand growth forecast driven by DMs and other EMs instead. This leaves near-term risks having to come from the supply side, most notably OPEC+, which next meets on October 4. And while an aggressively faster ramp-up in production by year-end would soften (but not derail) our projected deficit, it would only further delay the shale rebound, which would reinforce the structural nature of the next rally<b>given binding under-investment in oil services by 2023.</b>In addition, a large ramp-up in OPEC+ production would simply fast-forward the decline in global spare capacity to historically low levels, replacing a cyclical tight market with a structural one.</p><p><blockquote>最后，高盛的预测——随着汽油价格即将飙升，这将激怒白宫——哪里是错的？不管怎样，该银行认为其看涨观点的时间表存在最大的风险。在需求方面，它需要一种潜在的新变体，使疫苗无效。然而，除此之外，该行预计中国的下行风险有限，其经济学家预计中国不会硬着陆，我们的需求增长预测将由 DMs 和其他 EMs 驱动。这使得近期风险必须来自供应方面，最明显的是石油输出国组织+，该组织下次会议将于10月4日举行。虽然年底前大幅更快地提高产量将缓解（但不会破坏）我们的预计赤字，但这只会进一步推迟页岩油反弹，这将加强下一次反弹的结构性性质<b>考虑到 2023 年石油服务投资不足的情况。</b>此外，石油输出国组织+产量的大幅增加只会使全球闲置产能的下降加速至历史低位，用结构性市场取代周期性紧张市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd106ecf9d01caf6e4f12691246f3fb6\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"748\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90<blockquote>高盛将年终油价目标上调至90美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90<blockquote>高盛将年终油价目标上调至90美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just days after Goldman's head commodity analyst Jeff Currie told Bloomberg TV that the bankanticipates oil spiking to $90 if the winter is colder than usual, on Sunday afternoon Goldman went ahead and made that its base case and in a note from energy strategist Damien Courvalin, he writes that with Brent prices reaching new highs since October 2018, the bank now forecasts that this rally will continue, \"with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. $80/bbl previously.\"</p><p><blockquote>就在高盛首席大宗商品分析师杰夫·柯里 (Jeff Currie) 告诉彭博电视台，如果冬季比往常更冷，该行预计油价将飙升至 90 美元几天后，周日下午，高盛继续提出了这一基本观点，并在能源策略师达米安·库瓦林 (Damien Courvalin) 的一份报告中写道，随着布伦特原油价格创下 2018 年 10 月以来的新高，该行现在预测这种涨势将持续下去，“我们的年终布伦特原油价格预测为 90 美元/桶，而之前为 80 美元/桶。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ecb93c9273e8993f2a588904c9e0fa\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">What tipped the scales is that while Goldman has long held a bullish oil view, \"the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.\"</p><p><blockquote>令人震惊的是，尽管高盛长期以来一直持有看涨的石油观点，但“当前全球石油供需赤字比我们预期的要大，全球需求从三角洲影响中恢复的速度甚至快于我们上述共识预测，全球供应仍低于我们低于共识预测。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c92ef4eaeb72fc838ea4a5b251c3c7\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"779\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among the supply factors cited by Goldman is hurricane Ida - the \"most bullish hurricane in US history\" - which more than offset the ramp-up in OPEC+ production since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>高盛引用的供应因素之一是飓风艾达——“美国历史上最看涨的飓风”——它远远抵消了自 7 月份以来 OPEC+ 产量的增加，而非 OPEC+ 非页岩产量继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8320c0336248104108f7e386eb699ff8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Meanwhile, as noted above, on the demand side Goldman cited low hospitalization rates which are leading more countries to re-open, including to international travel in particularly COVID-averse countries in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，如上所述，在需求方面，高盛指出，低住院率正在导致更多国家重新开放，包括在亚洲特别反对新冠疫情的国家进行国际旅行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32169f05ef56417ab3dbbd9295cc770e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"410\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, from a seasonal standpoint, Courvalin sees winter demand risks as \"further now squarely skewed to the upside\" as the global gas shortage will increase oil fired power generation.</p><p><blockquote>最后，从季节性角度来看，Courvalin 认为冬季需求风险“现在进一步倾向于上行”，因为全球天然气短缺将增加燃油发电。</blockquote></p><p> From a fundamental standpoint, the current c.4.5 mb/d observable inventory draws are the largest on record, including for global SPRs and oil on water, and follow the longest deficit on record, started in June 2020.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，目前约 4.5 mb/d 的可观察库存消耗是有记录以来最大的，包括全球 SPR 和水上石油，并且是在 2020 年 6 月开始的有记录以来最长的赤字之后。</blockquote></p><p> For the oil bears, Goldman does not see this deficit as reversing in coming months as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability for OPEC+ to ramp up, with the shale supply response just starting.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油空头来说，高盛认为这种赤字不会在未来几个月内逆转，因为其规模将压倒欧佩克+增产的意愿和能力，页岩油供应反应才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62454b6c085d29e6ba76cd2d0c7d7b81\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"716\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>This sets the stage for inventories to fall to their lowest level since 2013 by year-end (after adjusting for pipeline fill), supporting further backwardation in the oil forward curve where positioning remains low.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这为库存在年底前降至 2013 年以来的最低水平（经管道填充调整后）创造条件，支持石油远期曲线中的进一步现价，而该曲线的定位仍然较低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e01fe449ec33a6a1d1bf50d067b495bb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But what about a production response? While Goldman does expect short-cycle production to respond by 2022 at the bank's higher price forecast, from core-OPEC, Russia and shale, this according to Goldman,<b>will only lay bare the structural nature of the oil market repricing.</b>To be sure, there will likely be a time to be tactically bearish in 2022, especially if a US-Iran deal is eventually reached. The bank's base-case assumption is for such an agreement to be reached in April, leading the bank to then trim its price target to an $80/bbl price forecast in 2Q22-4Q22 (vs. its 4Q21-1Q22 $85/bbl quarterly average forecast). This would, however, remain a tactical call and a likely timespread trade according to Courvalin, with long-dated oil prices poised to reset higher from current levels, especially as the hedging momentum shifts from US producer selling to airline buying (a move which Goldman says to position for with a long Dec-22 Brent and short Dec-22 Brent put trade recommendations).</p><p><blockquote>但是生产反应呢？高盛表示，虽然高盛确实预计到 2022 年，短周期产量将根据该行对核心石油输出国组织、俄罗斯和页岩油的较高价格预测做出反应，<b>只会暴露石油市场重新定价的结构性本质。</b>可以肯定的是，2022年可能会有一段时间在战术上看跌，特别是如果美伊最终达成协议的话。该银行的基本假设是在4月份达成这样的协议，导致该银行随后将2022年第二季度-2022年第四季度的价格目标下调至80美元/桶（而2021年第四季度-2022年第一季度的季度平均预测为85美元/桶）。然而，Courvalin 表示，这仍将是一种战术性看涨期权，并且可能是一种时间价差交易，长期油价有望从当前水平重置更高，特别是当对冲势头从美国生产商抛售转向航空公司购买时（高盛表示，此举将通过 12 月 22 日布伦特原油多头和 12 月 22 日布伦特原油空头看跌交易建议进行定位）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the lack of long-cycle capex response - here you can thank the green crazy sweeping the world - the quickly diminishing OPEC spare capacity (Goldman expects normalization by early 2022), the inability for shale producers to sustain production growth (given their low reinvestment rate targets) and oil service and carbon cost inflation<b>will all instead point to the need for sustainably higher long-dated oil prices</b>. Remarkably, Goldman now expects the market to return to a structural deficit by 2H23, which leads it to raise its 2023 oil price forecast from $65/bbl to $85/bbl, and the mid-cycle valuation oil price used by Goldman's equity analysts to $70/bbl.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，缺乏长周期资本支出反应——在这里你可以感谢席卷全球的绿色疯狂——欧佩克备用产能迅速减少（高盛预计到 2022 年初实现正常化）、页岩油生产商无法维持产量增长（鉴于其低再投资率目标）以及石油服务和碳成本通胀<b>相反，所有这些都将指向长期可持续较高的油价的必要性</b>值得注意的是，高盛现在预计市场将在 2023 年下半年恢复结构性赤字，这导致其将 2023 年油价预测从 65 美元/桶上调至 85 美元/桶，并将高盛股票分析师使用的周期中期估值油价上调至 70 美元/桶。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d7d4a9d5f515b5b0de4f63db881a2a2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Translation:<b>expect a slew of price hikes on energy stocks in the coming days from Goldman.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>预计未来几天高盛将大幅上调能源股价格。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, where could Goldman's forecast - which would infuriate the white house as gasoline prices are about to explode higher - be wrong? For what it's worth, the bank sees the greatest risk on the timeline of its bullish view. On the demand side, it would take a potentially new variant that renders vaccine ineffective. Beyond that, however, the bank expects limited downside risk from China, with its economists not expecting a hard landing and with our demand growth forecast driven by DMs and other EMs instead. This leaves near-term risks having to come from the supply side, most notably OPEC+, which next meets on October 4. And while an aggressively faster ramp-up in production by year-end would soften (but not derail) our projected deficit, it would only further delay the shale rebound, which would reinforce the structural nature of the next rally<b>given binding under-investment in oil services by 2023.</b>In addition, a large ramp-up in OPEC+ production would simply fast-forward the decline in global spare capacity to historically low levels, replacing a cyclical tight market with a structural one.</p><p><blockquote>最后，高盛的预测——随着汽油价格即将飙升，这将激怒白宫——哪里是错的？不管怎样，该银行认为其看涨观点的时间表存在最大的风险。在需求方面，它需要一种潜在的新变体，使疫苗无效。然而，除此之外，该行预计中国的下行风险有限，其经济学家预计中国不会硬着陆，我们的需求增长预测将由 DMs 和其他 EMs 驱动。这使得近期风险必须来自供应方面，最明显的是石油输出国组织+，该组织下次会议将于10月4日举行。虽然年底前大幅更快地提高产量将缓解（但不会破坏）我们的预计赤字，但这只会进一步推迟页岩油反弹，这将加强下一次反弹的结构性性质<b>考虑到 2023 年石油服务投资不足的情况。</b>此外，石油输出国组织+产量的大幅增加只会使全球闲置产能的下降加速至历史低位，用结构性市场取代周期性紧张市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd106ecf9d01caf6e4f12691246f3fb6\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"748\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-raises-year-end-oil-price-target-90?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRUD.UK":"WTI原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-raises-year-end-oil-price-target-90?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153063901","content_text":"Just days after Goldman's head commodity analyst Jeff Currie told Bloomberg TV that the bankanticipates oil spiking to $90 if the winter is colder than usual, on Sunday afternoon Goldman went ahead and made that its base case and in a note from energy strategist Damien Courvalin, he writes that with Brent prices reaching new highs since October 2018, the bank now forecasts that this rally will continue, \"with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. $80/bbl previously.\"\nWhat tipped the scales is that while Goldman has long held a bullish oil view, \"the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.\"\n\nAmong the supply factors cited by Goldman is hurricane Ida - the \"most bullish hurricane in US history\" - which more than offset the ramp-up in OPEC+ production since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint.\nMeanwhile, as noted above, on the demand side Goldman cited low hospitalization rates which are leading more countries to re-open, including to international travel in particularly COVID-averse countries in Asia.\nFinally, from a seasonal standpoint, Courvalin sees winter demand risks as \"further now squarely skewed to the upside\" as the global gas shortage will increase oil fired power generation.\nFrom a fundamental standpoint, the current c.4.5 mb/d observable inventory draws are the largest on record, including for global SPRs and oil on water, and follow the longest deficit on record, started in June 2020.\nFor the oil bears, Goldman does not see this deficit as reversing in coming months as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability for OPEC+ to ramp up, with the shale supply response just starting.\n\nThis sets the stage for inventories to fall to their lowest level since 2013 by year-end (after adjusting for pipeline fill), supporting further backwardation in the oil forward curve where positioning remains low.\nBut what about a production response? While Goldman does expect short-cycle production to respond by 2022 at the bank's higher price forecast, from core-OPEC, Russia and shale, this according to Goldman,will only lay bare the structural nature of the oil market repricing.To be sure, there will likely be a time to be tactically bearish in 2022, especially if a US-Iran deal is eventually reached. The bank's base-case assumption is for such an agreement to be reached in April, leading the bank to then trim its price target to an $80/bbl price forecast in 2Q22-4Q22 (vs. its 4Q21-1Q22 $85/bbl quarterly average forecast). This would, however, remain a tactical call and a likely timespread trade according to Courvalin, with long-dated oil prices poised to reset higher from current levels, especially as the hedging momentum shifts from US producer selling to airline buying (a move which Goldman says to position for with a long Dec-22 Brent and short Dec-22 Brent put trade recommendations).\nMeanwhile, the lack of long-cycle capex response - here you can thank the green crazy sweeping the world - the quickly diminishing OPEC spare capacity (Goldman expects normalization by early 2022), the inability for shale producers to sustain production growth (given their low reinvestment rate targets) and oil service and carbon cost inflationwill all instead point to the need for sustainably higher long-dated oil prices. Remarkably, Goldman now expects the market to return to a structural deficit by 2H23, which leads it to raise its 2023 oil price forecast from $65/bbl to $85/bbl, and the mid-cycle valuation oil price used by Goldman's equity analysts to $70/bbl.\nTranslation:expect a slew of price hikes on energy stocks in the coming days from Goldman.\nFinally, where could Goldman's forecast - which would infuriate the white house as gasoline prices are about to explode higher - be wrong? For what it's worth, the bank sees the greatest risk on the timeline of its bullish view. On the demand side, it would take a potentially new variant that renders vaccine ineffective. Beyond that, however, the bank expects limited downside risk from China, with its economists not expecting a hard landing and with our demand growth forecast driven by DMs and other EMs instead. This leaves near-term risks having to come from the supply side, most notably OPEC+, which next meets on October 4. And while an aggressively faster ramp-up in production by year-end would soften (but not derail) our projected deficit, it would only further delay the shale rebound, which would reinforce the structural nature of the next rallygiven binding under-investment in oil services by 2023.In addition, a large ramp-up in OPEC+ production would simply fast-forward the decline in global spare capacity to historically low levels, replacing a cyclical tight market with a structural one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"CRUD.UK":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866039493"}
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