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2021-09-28

All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场一片混乱</blockquote>

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As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).<blockquote>对欧洲民众来说不幸的是，随着时间的推移——在较小程度上，像 Statar Capital 这样的对冲基金在过去几天遭受了巨大损失——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的哈维尔·布拉斯今天指出的那样，英国 NBP 和荷兰 TTF 天然气基准当天均收于有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约 11%（收盘价等于每 mBtu 26 美元以上）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.<blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位 5 美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近易手，价格约为每百万英热单位 27 美元，创季节性新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围、“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态””）。此外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的 outRabobank 对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.<blockquote>欧洲的能源危机并不局限于国家天然气，正如我们周末在另一个回顾 20 世纪 70 年代美国时讨论的那样，英国城市的加油站泵周一已经耗尽，由于卡车司机短缺导致供应链紧张到崩溃的地步，供应商限制了销售。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么挂着没有燃料的标志，一些加油站限制了每个顾客可以购买的燃料数量。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.<blockquote>汽油零售商协会 (PRA) 代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有 8,380 家前院的 65%，这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的.</blockquote> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.<blockquote>随着 COVID-19 大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺给英国从食品到燃料的供应链带来了混乱，引发了圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们排了几个小时的队，在仍在出售燃料的加油站给汽车加油，尽管通常是配给的。国家医疗服务体系 (NHS) 工作人员和其他紧急救援人员也享有优先评级。</blockquote> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"<blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，由于卡车司机短缺（估计约为 10 万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可，因此无法快速解决问题。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA 执行董事戈登·巴尔默 (Gordon Balmer) 告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.<blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克（Trafigura）称，今年冬天及以后，全球石油和天然气价格将上涨，因为供应难以赶上快速增长的需求。</blockquote> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.<blockquote>“托克石油交易联席主管本-卢科克（Ben Luckock）在接受彭博社采访时说：”我们将看到油价上涨。</blockquote> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.<blockquote>卢科克说，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价有误，因为交易商还没有意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：价格甚至更高，而且看不到任何缓解的迹象。</blockquote> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.<blockquote>“他说：”延期原油，尤其是 2022 年 12 月和 2023 年的延期原油，价格便宜。2022 年 12 月交割的布伦特原油价格目前在每桶 70 美元左右易手，但 Luckock 表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格涨至每桶 100 美元左右，他也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote> \"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.<blockquote>“我很难想象未来两年物价会上涨。”他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在 12 月的某个时候触及 90 美元。周一，即时交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶 80 美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.<blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶 79 美元，但在现价市场的情况下，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.<blockquote>关于天然气，他表示价格可能会飙升甚至更多今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求增加。</blockquote> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.<blockquote>乐观前景出现之际，石油需求正在迅速恢复到大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在 2022 年初至中期达到 2019 年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直限制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔得以保持对市场的控制。</blockquote> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.<blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”卢科克说。</blockquote> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”<blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易已经创下历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲很难看到天然气价格下降：“他说：”如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天寒冷，我们就会遇到大问题。“如果天气寒冷，而且没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺”。</blockquote> Notably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.<blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他怀疑俄罗斯，欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益而有意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单： 俄罗斯面临着许多气田的维护，国内库存非常低，流向土耳其的天然气流量大幅增加，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场一片混乱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets<blockquote>能源市场一片混乱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-28 08:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBy now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.<blockquote>现在，读者们都很清楚，欧洲正在遭受一场历史性的天然气危机，根据荷兰合作银行的说法，这场危机现在比美国油价冲击更加极端。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01473ed57c88b3c06eec16d0f80262d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> And unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as&nbsp;Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).<blockquote>对欧洲民众来说不幸的是，随着时间的推移——在较小程度上，像 Statar Capital 这样的对冲基金在过去几天遭受了巨大损失——情况只会变得更糟。正如彭博社的哈维尔·布拉斯今天指出的那样，英国 NBP 和荷兰 TTF 天然气基准当天均收于有史以来最高结算水平，当日上涨约 11%（收盘价等于每 mBtu 26 美元以上）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187913102e842bbefaf972a3860cc204\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.<blockquote>欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，比2010-2020年平均水平高出400%以上明显高于美国，美国的大宗商品交易价格约为每百万英热单位 5 美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近易手，价格约为每百万英热单位 27 美元，创季节性新高，因为中国也受到了大范围能源危机的打击（参见“数百万中国居民在大范围、“意外”停电后断电；电力公司警告这是“新常态””）。此外，对于那些还没有读过的人，请查看我们周末发布的 outRabobank 对欧洲能源危机的广泛回顾。</blockquote> Europe's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.<blockquote>欧洲的能源危机并不局限于国家天然气，正如我们周末在另一个回顾 20 世纪 70 年代美国时讨论的那样，英国城市的加油站泵周一已经耗尽，由于卡车司机短缺导致供应链紧张到崩溃的地步，供应商限制了销售。路透社记者称，周一英国各城市的加油站要么关闭，要么挂着没有燃料的标志，一些加油站限制了每个顾客可以购买的燃料数量。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400ac65bbd922c573b761628bc0edcd\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.<blockquote>汽油零售商协会 (PRA) 代表独立燃料零售商，占英国所有 8,380 家前院的 65%，这些成员报告说，在一些地区，50%至90%的水泵是干的.</blockquote> A post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.<blockquote>随着 COVID-19 大流行的缓解，英国脱欧后卡车司机短缺给英国从食品到燃料的供应链带来了混乱，引发了圣诞节前夕中断和价格上涨的担忧。司机们排了几个小时的队，在仍在出售燃料的加油站给汽车加油，尽管通常是配给的。国家医疗服务体系 (NHS) 工作人员和其他紧急救援人员也享有优先评级。</blockquote> Hauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"<blockquote>运输商、加油站和零售商表示，由于卡车司机短缺（估计约为 10 万人）非常严重，而且运输燃料需要额外的培训和许可，因此无法快速解决问题。“我们需要一些冷静，”PRA 执行董事戈登·巴尔默 (Gordon Balmer) 告诉路透社。“请不要恐慌购买：如果人们耗尽网络，那么它就会成为一个自我实现的预言。”</blockquote> Shifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.<blockquote>从汽油和天然气转向石油，近期前景看起来更加严峻。据全球最大的大宗商品贸易公司之一托克（Trafigura）称，今年冬天及以后，全球石油和天然气价格将上涨，因为供应难以赶上快速增长的需求。</blockquote> “We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.<blockquote>“托克石油交易联席主管本-卢科克（Ben Luckock）在接受彭博社采访时说：”我们将看到油价上涨。</blockquote> Luckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.<blockquote>卢科克说，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价有误，因为交易商还没有意识到供需平衡将在一段时间内保持紧张的事实。翻译：价格甚至更高，而且看不到任何缓解的迹象。</blockquote> “Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.<blockquote>“他说：”延期原油，尤其是 2022 年 12 月和 2023 年的延期原油，价格便宜。2022 年 12 月交割的布伦特原油价格目前在每桶 70 美元左右易手，但 Luckock 表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格涨至每桶 100 美元左右，他也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote> \"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.<blockquote>“我很难想象未来两年物价会上涨。”他表示，在高盛上调目标价一天后，现在预测布伦特原油将在 12 月的某个时候触及 90 美元。周一，即时交割的布伦特原油飙升至每桶 80 美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。</blockquote> If he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.<blockquote>如果他是对的，这对于押注持续现价的交易者来说可能是毁灭性的：截至今天，曲线的前端交易价格高于每桶 79 美元，但在现价市场的情况下，后端要低得多。2022年12月为每桶71美元，2023年12月为每桶66美元。如果托克是对的，我们可能会走向期货溢价，这将对能源市场造成更大的破坏。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7bd681ae0523a07ce3c72fcd932d21\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.<blockquote>关于天然气，他表示价格可能会飙升甚至更多今年冬天，如果寒冷的天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求增加。</blockquote> The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.<blockquote>乐观前景出现之际，石油需求正在迅速恢复到大流行前的水平，大多数交易商预计消费量将在 2022 年初至中期达到 2019 年。随着需求反弹，供应却难以跟上：美国页岩油公司一直限制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。由于美国页岩油对价格上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+石油卡特尔得以保持对市场的控制。</blockquote> “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.<blockquote>“美国页岩油行业表现出非常强的纪律性。油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻探量大幅增加，”卢科克说。</blockquote> Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”<blockquote>卢科克表示，尽管大宗商品交易已经创下历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲很难看到天然气价格下降：“他说：”如果欧洲或亚洲的冬天寒冷，我们就会遇到大问题。“如果天气寒冷，而且没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临短缺”。</blockquote> Notably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.<blockquote>值得注意的是，卢科克说他怀疑俄罗斯，欧洲最大的天然气供应商为了政治利益而有意收紧市场，这表明莫斯科现在已经在尽可能多地开采天然气。</blockquote> “It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”说这是出于政治动机很容易，但我认为事情比这更简单： 俄罗斯面临着许多气田的维护，国内库存非常低，流向土耳其的天然气流量大幅增加，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在努力提高产量。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaking-loose-energy-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156306273","content_text":"By now readers are well aware that Europe is suffering from a historic gas crisis, one which according to Rabobank isnow even more extremethan the US oil price shock.\n\nAnd unfortunately for Europe's population, with every passing day - and to a lesser extent hedgefunds such as Statar Capitalwhich suffered a big loss in the past few days - it's only getting worse. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes today, both UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas benchmarks have closed the day at theirhighest ever settlement level, up ~11% on the day(to a closing price equal to more than $26 per mBtu).\nNatural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit,more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high, as China has also been hit by a widespread energy crisis (see\"Millions Of Chinese Residents Lose Power After Widespread, \"Unexpected\" Blackouts; Power Company Warns This Is \"New Normal\"\"). Also, for those who haven't read it yet, please check outRabobank's extensive recapof Europe's energy crisis which we posted over the weekend.\nEurope's energy crisis is not contained to nat gas, and as we discussed over the weekend in another flashback to the 1970s US, UK gas station pumps are running dry in British cities on Monday with vendors rationing sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point. Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.\nThe Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers accounting for 65% of all the 8,380 UK forecourts,said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.\nA post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the specter of disruptions and price rises in the run-up to Christmas. Drivers lined up for hours to fill their cars at petrol stations that were still selling fuel, albeit often rationed. There were also calls for National Health Service (NHS) staff and other emergency workers to be given priority.\nHauliers, gas stations and retailers said there were no quick fixes as the shortfall of truck drivers - estimated to be around 100,000 - was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing. \"We need some calm,\" Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, told Reuters. \"Please don't panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.\"\nShifting from gasoline and nat gas to oil, the near-term outlook is looking even more grim. According to Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, the world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand.\n“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in aninterview with Bloomberg.\nLuckock said the market was mispricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time. Translation: even higher prices are coming with no easing in sight.\n“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.\n\"I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,”he said, one day after Goldman hiked its price target, now predicting that Brentwould hit $90 some time in December. On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.\nIf he is right, that could prove to be devastating for traders betting on continued backwardation: as of today, the front of the curve is trading above $79 a barrel, but with a backwardated market, the back is far lower. December 2022 is at $71 a barrel, and December 2023 is at $66 a barrel. If Trafigura is right we may be headed for contango which would unleash even greater havoc on the energy market.\nOn natural gas, he said prices could shoot upeven morethis winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.\nThe bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.\n“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.\nLuckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already:“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”\nNotably, Luckock said hewas skeptical that Russia,the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.\n“It’s easy to say that’s politically motivated, but I think it’s simpler than that: Russia is facing maintenance in many gas fields, very low domestic inventories, substantially increased flows to Turkey, and Gazprom is struggling to increase production,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866271025"}