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2021-09-28

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Dow 40000 – A Huge Disappointment Of Promises<blockquote>道指40000点——对承诺的巨大失望</blockquote>

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Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts o","content":"Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the&nbsp;“Party Hats,”&nbsp;it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.<blockquote>道指40000！是的，它最终会发生。鉴于全球大量流动性追逐更少的资产，这并不奇怪。但尽管道指40,000点无疑将带来“派对帽。”这也是对投资者承诺的巨大失望。</blockquote> Dow Milestones<blockquote>道琼斯里程碑</blockquote> “Nothing says bull stock market like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossing another thousand-point barrier. The recent rise above 34K sparked a special interest. The 1,000-point move&nbsp;from 33,000 to 34,000 was the third fastest on record,’ and the Dow’s move was ‘its fourth thousand-point hurdle&nbsp;cleared this year alone.’ – John Tobey If price acceleration in the market is a sign of investor optimism, this chart should undoubtedly support that view.<blockquote>“没有什么比道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）突破另一个千点大关更能说明股市牛市了。最近升破34000点引发了人们的特别兴趣。从33,000点升至34,000点的1000点是有记录以来第三快的，”道指的走势是“仅今年就突破的第四个千点大关”。——John Tobey如果市场价格加速是投资者乐观的标志，那么这张图表无疑应该支持这一观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc7b041a78d3ca8a712700cad2e30a1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"609\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">There were only&nbsp;three other times in history where the Dow advanced this rapidly:<blockquote>只有 历史上还有三次道琼斯指数如此快速上涨：</blockquote> <ul> <li>1999-2000<blockquote><ul><li>1999-2000</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>2017-2018<blockquote><li>2017-2018</li></blockquote></li> <li>2019-2020<blockquote><li>2019-2020</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately, each of those periods ended in corrections and outright bear markets.<blockquote>不幸的是，每个时期都以调整和彻底的熊市告终。</blockquote> Maybe it’s just a coincidence.<blockquote>也许这只是一个巧合。</blockquote> Maybe&nbsp;“this time is different.”<blockquote>也许吧“这次不一样。”</blockquote> Or, it could just be that extreme exuberance by investors tends to be a later stage event.<blockquote>或者，这可能只是投资者的极度繁荣往往是后期事件。</blockquote> Dow 40,000 Is A Real Disappointment<blockquote>道指40,000点确实令人失望</blockquote> What most investors tend to forget is the damage done by those market corrections and bear markets.<blockquote>大多数投资者往往忘记的是这些市场调整和熊市造成的损害。</blockquote> Here is a good example.<blockquote>这里有一个很好的例子。</blockquote> In 2019,&nbsp;CNBC ran an article touting&nbsp;the call of&nbsp;“Billionaire Investor Ron Baron”&nbsp;that the Dow would reach 650,000 in just 50-years. Of course, that was just before the 35% rout in March 2020. However, as noted in the article:<blockquote>2019年，CNBC发表了一篇文章，宣扬看涨期权“亿万富翁投资者罗恩·巴伦”道琼斯指数将在短短50年内达到65万点。当然，那是在2020年3月35%的溃败之前。然而，正如文章中所指出的：</blockquote> “Speaking from his annual investment conference in New York, Baron predicted the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp; based on historical moves over decades, will reach 650,000 in 50 years, with an over $500 trillion U.S. economy.” If we do some quick math, that assumption requires a 6.6% annualized return on both the Dow and the U.S. economy. Such is undoubtedly in line with the economy’s long-term growth trends, and the charts below prove the point.<blockquote>巴伦在纽约举行的年度投资会议上发表讲话时预测，根据几十年来的历史走势，50年内将达到65万，美国经济规模将超过500万亿美元。”如果我们快速计算一下，这一假设要求道琼斯指数和美国经济的年化回报率均为6.6%。这无疑符合经济的长期增长趋势，下面的图表证明了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7911be7435ab6393a30ce06a2dede059\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, those returns are also what financial advisors promise clients who&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;an index-based portfolio.<blockquote>当然，这些回报也是财务顾问向客户承诺的“买入并持有”基于指数的投资组合。</blockquote> Here is the problem.<blockquote>问题来了。</blockquote> It’s complete bulls*** on both counts.<blockquote>在这两个方面都完全是公牛***。</blockquote> Mr. Baron, as noted, was speaking at his&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;conference, and the tweet grabbed both attention and headlines.<blockquote>如前所述，巴伦先生是在他的“买入并持有”会议，这条推文吸引了关注和头条新闻。</blockquote> The problem with being&nbsp;“bullish all the time”&nbsp;is that it is also perilous.<blockquote>存在的问题“一直看涨”这也是危险的。</blockquote> Such is particularly the case in late-stage&nbsp;“bull markets,”&nbsp;where seemingly ever-rising prices mask poor investment decisions and excessive portfolio “risk.”&nbsp;As a result, previously lousy investment ideas, products, and strategies tend to resurface in a different form or package.&nbsp;Investment strategies like&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;and&nbsp;“dollar cost averaging”&nbsp;become popular even though they are guaranteed to leave you well short of your financial objectives in the future.<blockquote>在后期尤其如此“牛市，”看似不断上涨的价格掩盖了糟糕的投资决策和过度的投资组合“风险”。因此，以前糟糕的投资理念、产品和策略往往会以不同的形式或包装重新出现。投资策略如“买入并持有”和“美元成本平均法”变得受欢迎，即使它们肯定会让你在未来远远达不到你的财务目标。</blockquote> The Economy No Longer Grows At 6%<blockquote>经济不再以6%增长</blockquote> Let’s start with the economy.<blockquote>让我们从经济开始。</blockquote> The economy has not attained an annualized growth rate of 6% since the 1950’s when the U.S. was the manufacturing hub of the entire world. Following WWII, the majority of Europe, and Japan following two nuclear bombs, got devastated. Today, the U.S. is no longer a manufacturing hub but a services provider for ever-lower costs. Services, as compared to manufacturing, have a very low economic multiplier effect. Given $28 Trillion in debt and climbing, attaining&nbsp;a sustainable 6% growth rate is not possible.<blockquote>自20世纪50年代美国是全世界的制造业中心以来，美国经济还没有达到6%的年化增长率。第二次世界大战后，欧洲大部分地区，以及遭受两次核弹袭击的日本，遭到了毁灭性的打击。如今，美国不再是制造中心，而是成本不断降低的服务提供商。与制造业相比，服务业的经济乘数效应非常低。鉴于28万亿美元的债务并不断攀升，达到6%的可持续增长率是不可能的。</blockquote> The chart below pretty much details the problem.<blockquote>下图非常详细地描述了这个问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f467b23ee24c7ea42124af9211ab1\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Many argue the U.S. economy has grown by more than 6% on average over the long term.&nbsp;(This is a true statement)However, it is also a very misleading statement.&nbsp;Average and actual growth are two very different things.<blockquote>许多人认为，美国经济长期平均增长率超过6%。（这是一个真实的说法）然而，这也是一种非常具有误导性的说法。平均增长和实际增长是两回事。</blockquote> If we go back to 1901 and assume the economy grew at just 6% annualized, lower than Mr. Baron’s 6.6% suggestion, the size of the economy should be approaching $500 Trillion. Not the paltry $19 trillion at the end of 2020.<blockquote>如果我们回到1901年，假设经济年化增长率仅为6%，低于巴伦先生6.6%的建议，那么经济规模应该接近500万亿美元。而不是2020年底微不足道的19万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb039a951d498f696b6e37aae80d17b8\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">What happened?<blockquote>怎么回事？</blockquote> There were many years of low or negative economic growth.<blockquote>有许多年的经济低增长或负增长。</blockquote> The same factors hold with the Dow.<blockquote>同样的因素也适用于道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Dow 650,000<blockquote>道指65万</blockquote> As noted, Mr. Baron suggests the Dow will rise to 650,000 in the next 50-years. So clearly, as a young investor, you should sock all your hard-earned savings into an&nbsp;“index fund”&nbsp;and hang on.<blockquote>如上所述，巴伦先生表示道琼斯指数将在未来50年内升至65万点。因此，很明显，作为一名年轻的投资者，您应该将所有辛苦赚来的积蓄存入“指数基金”坚持住。</blockquote> “The stock market is literally the same thing as a high-yield savings account.”&nbsp;–&nbsp; Jim J.&nbsp;( names have been changed to protect the stupid.) Here’s the thing.<blockquote>“股票市场实际上与高收益储蓄账户是一回事。” – 吉姆·J。 (名字已被更改以保护愚蠢的人。）是这样的。</blockquote> The financial media states that markets have an average annual return of 8-10%.&nbsp;So, assuming the Dow had compounded at just 5% since 1901, we would already be past 650,000.<blockquote>财经媒体称，市场的平均年回报率为8-10%。因此，假设道琼斯指数自1901年以来的复合增长率仅为5%，我们已经超过了65万点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f5d0faf546143e5a7a2ce2b7f87360\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"553\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But it’s not.<blockquote>但事实并非如此。</blockquote> We are just stuck here at a&nbsp;“crappy ole’ 35,000.”<blockquote>我们只是被困在这里“破三万五千。”</blockquote> As with economic growth,&nbsp;there is a massive difference between compound returns and average returns.&nbsp;The historical performance of the markets since 1900, including dividends, has averaged a higher rate of return than just 5% annually. Therefore, the Dow shouldbe much closer to 700,000 today than 650,000 in the next 50-years.<blockquote>与经济增长一样，复合回报和平均回报之间存在巨大差异。自1900年以来，市场的历史表现，包括股息，平均回报率高于每年5%。因此，道指应今天接近70万，而不是未来50年的65万。</blockquote> Again, it’s not.<blockquote>还是那句话，不是。</blockquote> Nope…we are just hanging out way down here at 35,000.<blockquote>不…我们只是在35,000英镑的地方闲逛。</blockquote> Why? Because crashes matter.&nbsp;Such is particularly the case when it comes to your financial goals and investment time horizons.<blockquote>为什么？因为崩溃很重要。尤其是当涉及到你的财务目标和投资时间范围时。</blockquote> Why Crashes Matter<blockquote>为什么崩溃很重要</blockquote> Think about it this way.<blockquote>这样想吧。</blockquote> If&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;investing worked the way the media suggests,&nbsp;then why are the financial statistics of 80% of Americans so poor?<blockquote>如果“买入并持有”投资按照媒体暗示的方式运作，那么为什么80%的美国人的财务统计数据如此糟糕呢？</blockquote> The three most significant factors are:<blockquote>三个最重要的因素是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Destruction of capital;<blockquote><ol><li>资本的破坏；</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Lack of savings, and;<blockquote><li>缺乏储蓄；</li></blockquote></li> <li>Time.<blockquote><li>时间。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While lost capital gain eventually recover, the time lost&nbsp;“getting back to even”&nbsp;cannot be. Unfortunately, we don’t live forever, and time is our ultimate enemy. Such is also why, after two major bear markets, most&nbsp;“boomers”&nbsp;are simply&nbsp;unprepared financially for retirement.<blockquote>虽然损失的资本收益最终会恢复，但损失的时间“恢复平衡”不可能。不幸的是，我们不会永远活着，时间是我们最终的敌人。这也是为什么在经历了两次大熊市之后，大多数“婴儿潮一代”只是 没有为退休做好经济准备。</blockquote> Who wouldn’t love a world where everyone invests some money, the markets rise 6% annually, and everyone one’s a winner?<blockquote>谁不喜欢一个每个人都投资一些钱，市场每年上涨6%，每个人都是赢家的世界呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266d0fa870991fb83cee139a66c17ff3\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Markets Don’t Really Compound<blockquote>市场并没有真正复合</blockquote> Unfortunately, markets don’t work that way. A vast difference exists between an&nbsp;“index”&nbsp;that benefits from share buybacks, substitutions and market capitalization weighting versus a portfolio invested in actual dollars.&nbsp;Yes, a&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;portfolio will grow in the financial markets over time, but it&nbsp;DOES NOT compound.<blockquote>不幸的是，市场并不是这样运作的。之间存在巨大的差异“索引”与以实际美元投资的投资组合相比，这受益于股票回购、替代和市值权重。是的，一个“买入并持有”随着时间的推移，金融市场的投资组合将会增长，但它不复合。</blockquote> Read this carefully:&nbsp;“Compound returns assume no principal loss, ever.”<blockquote>仔细阅读：“复合回报假设永远不会有本金损失。”</blockquote> To visualize the importance of this statement,&nbsp;the chart below shows $100,000, adjusted for inflation, invested in 2000 versus a 6% annual compound rate of return.&nbsp;The shaded area shows the difference between the portfolio value and the 6% rate of return.<blockquote>为了使这句话的重要性形象化，下图显示了2000年投资的100,000美元（经通货膨胀调整后）与6%的年复合回报率。阴影区域显示投资组合价值与6%回报率之间的差异。</blockquote> As noted, due to the impact of two bear markets, the investor that started in 2000 is still well short of the rate of return promised.&nbsp;The investor that began in 2007 only just recently achieved their goal. However, a bear market in the future will set them back markedly.<blockquote>如前所述，由于两次熊市的影响，2000年开始的投资者仍远未达到承诺的回报率。2007年开始的投资者最近才实现了他们的目标。然而，未来的熊市将使他们明显倒退。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642b722d27819d49b48cf1c0df187d80\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">See the problem?&nbsp;If you were 45 in 2000, you didn’t make your retirement goal.<blockquote>看到问题了吗？ 如果你在2000年45岁，你就没有实现退休目标。</blockquote> With markets now back to some of the highest valuations on record, forward returns over the next 10-years will be substantially lower than they have been over the past 10-years.<blockquote>随着市场现在回到有记录以来的最高估值，未来10年的远期回报将大大低于过去10年。</blockquote> That isn’t being bearish. That is just math.<blockquote>这并不是看跌。这只是数学。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189c9eb619a668f81de3a0cc54c09552\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Throughout history, bull market cycles are only one-half of the&nbsp;“full market”&nbsp;cycle.&nbsp;Such is because during every&nbsp;“bull market”&nbsp;cycle the markets, and economy, build up excesses that are&nbsp;“reverted”&nbsp;during the following&nbsp;“bear market.”<blockquote>纵观历史，牛市周期只有牛市周期的一半 “全市场” 周期。这是因为在每个“牛市”循环市场和经济，积累过剩“恢复”在以下期间“熊市。”</blockquote> Reversion To The Mean<blockquote>均值回归</blockquote> As Sir Issac Newton once stated:<blockquote>正如艾萨克·牛顿爵士曾经说过的：</blockquote> “What goes up, must come down.” Looking beyond the very short-term overly optimistic view of&nbsp;“this time is different,”the coming&nbsp;unwinding of current speculative extremes will occur after completing the current market cycle.<blockquote>“上升的，必须下降。”超越短期过度乐观的观点“这次不一样。”即将到来当前投机极端情况的平仓将在完成当前市场周期后发生。</blockquote> When we look at 10-year trailing returns, there is&nbsp;sufficient historical evidence to suggest total returns will decline towards zero over the next 5-years from 12% annualized currently.(These are trailing 10-year total real returns, not forward)<blockquote>当我们查看10年的追踪回报时，有有足够的历史证据表明，未来5年总回报率将从目前的年化12%降至零。（这些是过去10年的总实际回报，而不是远期回报）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b243bf4d023e73f6f5cc8a90a21e1a\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"541\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A decline in the next 3-years of only 30%, the average drawdown during a recession, will likely achieve that goal.<blockquote>未来3年仅下降30%（经济衰退期间的平均降幅）可能会实现这一目标。</blockquote> Why will a bear market eventually happen?&nbsp;It is a function of time&nbsp;(length of market cycles), math&nbsp;(valuations,)&nbsp;and physics&nbsp;(price deviations for long-term means.)<blockquote>为什么熊市最终会发生？ 它是时间的函数（市场周期长度）,数学（估值，）和物理学（长期均值的价格偏差。）</blockquote> When will it happen, and what will cause it?&nbsp;No one knows.<blockquote>什么时候会发生，什么会导致？ 没人知道。</blockquote> There is one big secret in achieving long-term investment success.<blockquote>取得长期投资成功有一个很大的秘诀。</blockquote> “ Being&nbsp; “right” &nbsp;in the first half of the market cycle is not as important&nbsp; as&nbsp; being&nbsp; “wrong” during the second half.” You really should be disappointed in Dow 40,000.<blockquote>“存在“对”在市场周期的前半段并不那么重要 作为 存在“错了”在下半年“你真的应该对道指40,000点感到失望。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 40000 – A Huge Disappointment Of Promises<blockquote>道指40000点——对承诺的巨大失望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 40000 – A Huge Disappointment Of Promises<blockquote>道指40000点——对承诺的巨大失望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-28 08:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nDow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the&nbsp;“Party Hats,”&nbsp;it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.<blockquote>道指40000！是的，它最终会发生。鉴于全球大量流动性追逐更少的资产，这并不奇怪。但尽管道指40,000点无疑将带来“派对帽。”这也是对投资者承诺的巨大失望。</blockquote> Dow Milestones<blockquote>道琼斯里程碑</blockquote> “Nothing says bull stock market like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossing another thousand-point barrier. The recent rise above 34K sparked a special interest. The 1,000-point move&nbsp;from 33,000 to 34,000 was the third fastest on record,’ and the Dow’s move was ‘its fourth thousand-point hurdle&nbsp;cleared this year alone.’ – John Tobey If price acceleration in the market is a sign of investor optimism, this chart should undoubtedly support that view.<blockquote>“没有什么比道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）突破另一个千点大关更能说明股市牛市了。最近升破34000点引发了人们的特别兴趣。从33,000点升至34,000点的1000点是有记录以来第三快的，”道指的走势是“仅今年就突破的第四个千点大关”。——John Tobey如果市场价格加速是投资者乐观的标志，那么这张图表无疑应该支持这一观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc7b041a78d3ca8a712700cad2e30a1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"609\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">There were only&nbsp;three other times in history where the Dow advanced this rapidly:<blockquote>只有 历史上还有三次道琼斯指数如此快速上涨：</blockquote> <ul> <li>1999-2000<blockquote><ul><li>1999-2000</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>2017-2018<blockquote><li>2017-2018</li></blockquote></li> <li>2019-2020<blockquote><li>2019-2020</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately, each of those periods ended in corrections and outright bear markets.<blockquote>不幸的是，每个时期都以调整和彻底的熊市告终。</blockquote> Maybe it’s just a coincidence.<blockquote>也许这只是一个巧合。</blockquote> Maybe&nbsp;“this time is different.”<blockquote>也许吧“这次不一样。”</blockquote> Or, it could just be that extreme exuberance by investors tends to be a later stage event.<blockquote>或者，这可能只是投资者的极度繁荣往往是后期事件。</blockquote> Dow 40,000 Is A Real Disappointment<blockquote>道指40,000点确实令人失望</blockquote> What most investors tend to forget is the damage done by those market corrections and bear markets.<blockquote>大多数投资者往往忘记的是这些市场调整和熊市造成的损害。</blockquote> Here is a good example.<blockquote>这里有一个很好的例子。</blockquote> In 2019,&nbsp;CNBC ran an article touting&nbsp;the call of&nbsp;“Billionaire Investor Ron Baron”&nbsp;that the Dow would reach 650,000 in just 50-years. Of course, that was just before the 35% rout in March 2020. However, as noted in the article:<blockquote>2019年，CNBC发表了一篇文章，宣扬看涨期权“亿万富翁投资者罗恩·巴伦”道琼斯指数将在短短50年内达到65万点。当然，那是在2020年3月35%的溃败之前。然而，正如文章中所指出的：</blockquote> “Speaking from his annual investment conference in New York, Baron predicted the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp; based on historical moves over decades, will reach 650,000 in 50 years, with an over $500 trillion U.S. economy.” If we do some quick math, that assumption requires a 6.6% annualized return on both the Dow and the U.S. economy. Such is undoubtedly in line with the economy’s long-term growth trends, and the charts below prove the point.<blockquote>巴伦在纽约举行的年度投资会议上发表讲话时预测，根据几十年来的历史走势，50年内将达到65万，美国经济规模将超过500万亿美元。”如果我们快速计算一下，这一假设要求道琼斯指数和美国经济的年化回报率均为6.6%。这无疑符合经济的长期增长趋势，下面的图表证明了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7911be7435ab6393a30ce06a2dede059\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, those returns are also what financial advisors promise clients who&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;an index-based portfolio.<blockquote>当然，这些回报也是财务顾问向客户承诺的“买入并持有”基于指数的投资组合。</blockquote> Here is the problem.<blockquote>问题来了。</blockquote> It’s complete bulls*** on both counts.<blockquote>在这两个方面都完全是公牛***。</blockquote> Mr. Baron, as noted, was speaking at his&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;conference, and the tweet grabbed both attention and headlines.<blockquote>如前所述，巴伦先生是在他的“买入并持有”会议，这条推文吸引了关注和头条新闻。</blockquote> The problem with being&nbsp;“bullish all the time”&nbsp;is that it is also perilous.<blockquote>存在的问题“一直看涨”这也是危险的。</blockquote> Such is particularly the case in late-stage&nbsp;“bull markets,”&nbsp;where seemingly ever-rising prices mask poor investment decisions and excessive portfolio “risk.”&nbsp;As a result, previously lousy investment ideas, products, and strategies tend to resurface in a different form or package.&nbsp;Investment strategies like&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;and&nbsp;“dollar cost averaging”&nbsp;become popular even though they are guaranteed to leave you well short of your financial objectives in the future.<blockquote>在后期尤其如此“牛市，”看似不断上涨的价格掩盖了糟糕的投资决策和过度的投资组合“风险”。因此，以前糟糕的投资理念、产品和策略往往会以不同的形式或包装重新出现。投资策略如“买入并持有”和“美元成本平均法”变得受欢迎，即使它们肯定会让你在未来远远达不到你的财务目标。</blockquote> The Economy No Longer Grows At 6%<blockquote>经济不再以6%增长</blockquote> Let’s start with the economy.<blockquote>让我们从经济开始。</blockquote> The economy has not attained an annualized growth rate of 6% since the 1950’s when the U.S. was the manufacturing hub of the entire world. Following WWII, the majority of Europe, and Japan following two nuclear bombs, got devastated. Today, the U.S. is no longer a manufacturing hub but a services provider for ever-lower costs. Services, as compared to manufacturing, have a very low economic multiplier effect. Given $28 Trillion in debt and climbing, attaining&nbsp;a sustainable 6% growth rate is not possible.<blockquote>自20世纪50年代美国是全世界的制造业中心以来，美国经济还没有达到6%的年化增长率。第二次世界大战后，欧洲大部分地区，以及遭受两次核弹袭击的日本，遭到了毁灭性的打击。如今，美国不再是制造中心，而是成本不断降低的服务提供商。与制造业相比，服务业的经济乘数效应非常低。鉴于28万亿美元的债务并不断攀升，达到6%的可持续增长率是不可能的。</blockquote> The chart below pretty much details the problem.<blockquote>下图非常详细地描述了这个问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f467b23ee24c7ea42124af9211ab1\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Many argue the U.S. economy has grown by more than 6% on average over the long term.&nbsp;(This is a true statement)However, it is also a very misleading statement.&nbsp;Average and actual growth are two very different things.<blockquote>许多人认为，美国经济长期平均增长率超过6%。（这是一个真实的说法）然而，这也是一种非常具有误导性的说法。平均增长和实际增长是两回事。</blockquote> If we go back to 1901 and assume the economy grew at just 6% annualized, lower than Mr. Baron’s 6.6% suggestion, the size of the economy should be approaching $500 Trillion. Not the paltry $19 trillion at the end of 2020.<blockquote>如果我们回到1901年，假设经济年化增长率仅为6%，低于巴伦先生6.6%的建议，那么经济规模应该接近500万亿美元。而不是2020年底微不足道的19万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb039a951d498f696b6e37aae80d17b8\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">What happened?<blockquote>怎么回事？</blockquote> There were many years of low or negative economic growth.<blockquote>有许多年的经济低增长或负增长。</blockquote> The same factors hold with the Dow.<blockquote>同样的因素也适用于道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Dow 650,000<blockquote>道指65万</blockquote> As noted, Mr. Baron suggests the Dow will rise to 650,000 in the next 50-years. So clearly, as a young investor, you should sock all your hard-earned savings into an&nbsp;“index fund”&nbsp;and hang on.<blockquote>如上所述，巴伦先生表示道琼斯指数将在未来50年内升至65万点。因此，很明显，作为一名年轻的投资者，您应该将所有辛苦赚来的积蓄存入“指数基金”坚持住。</blockquote> “The stock market is literally the same thing as a high-yield savings account.”&nbsp;–&nbsp; Jim J.&nbsp;( names have been changed to protect the stupid.) Here’s the thing.<blockquote>“股票市场实际上与高收益储蓄账户是一回事。” – 吉姆·J。 (名字已被更改以保护愚蠢的人。）是这样的。</blockquote> The financial media states that markets have an average annual return of 8-10%.&nbsp;So, assuming the Dow had compounded at just 5% since 1901, we would already be past 650,000.<blockquote>财经媒体称，市场的平均年回报率为8-10%。因此，假设道琼斯指数自1901年以来的复合增长率仅为5%，我们已经超过了65万点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f5d0faf546143e5a7a2ce2b7f87360\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"553\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But it’s not.<blockquote>但事实并非如此。</blockquote> We are just stuck here at a&nbsp;“crappy ole’ 35,000.”<blockquote>我们只是被困在这里“破三万五千。”</blockquote> As with economic growth,&nbsp;there is a massive difference between compound returns and average returns.&nbsp;The historical performance of the markets since 1900, including dividends, has averaged a higher rate of return than just 5% annually. Therefore, the Dow shouldbe much closer to 700,000 today than 650,000 in the next 50-years.<blockquote>与经济增长一样，复合回报和平均回报之间存在巨大差异。自1900年以来，市场的历史表现，包括股息，平均回报率高于每年5%。因此，道指应今天接近70万，而不是未来50年的65万。</blockquote> Again, it’s not.<blockquote>还是那句话，不是。</blockquote> Nope…we are just hanging out way down here at 35,000.<blockquote>不…我们只是在35,000英镑的地方闲逛。</blockquote> Why? Because crashes matter.&nbsp;Such is particularly the case when it comes to your financial goals and investment time horizons.<blockquote>为什么？因为崩溃很重要。尤其是当涉及到你的财务目标和投资时间范围时。</blockquote> Why Crashes Matter<blockquote>为什么崩溃很重要</blockquote> Think about it this way.<blockquote>这样想吧。</blockquote> If&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;investing worked the way the media suggests,&nbsp;then why are the financial statistics of 80% of Americans so poor?<blockquote>如果“买入并持有”投资按照媒体暗示的方式运作，那么为什么80%的美国人的财务统计数据如此糟糕呢？</blockquote> The three most significant factors are:<blockquote>三个最重要的因素是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Destruction of capital;<blockquote><ol><li>资本的破坏；</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Lack of savings, and;<blockquote><li>缺乏储蓄；</li></blockquote></li> <li>Time.<blockquote><li>时间。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While lost capital gain eventually recover, the time lost&nbsp;“getting back to even”&nbsp;cannot be. Unfortunately, we don’t live forever, and time is our ultimate enemy. Such is also why, after two major bear markets, most&nbsp;“boomers”&nbsp;are simply&nbsp;unprepared financially for retirement.<blockquote>虽然损失的资本收益最终会恢复，但损失的时间“恢复平衡”不可能。不幸的是，我们不会永远活着，时间是我们最终的敌人。这也是为什么在经历了两次大熊市之后，大多数“婴儿潮一代”只是 没有为退休做好经济准备。</blockquote> Who wouldn’t love a world where everyone invests some money, the markets rise 6% annually, and everyone one’s a winner?<blockquote>谁不喜欢一个每个人都投资一些钱，市场每年上涨6%，每个人都是赢家的世界呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266d0fa870991fb83cee139a66c17ff3\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Markets Don’t Really Compound<blockquote>市场并没有真正复合</blockquote> Unfortunately, markets don’t work that way. A vast difference exists between an&nbsp;“index”&nbsp;that benefits from share buybacks, substitutions and market capitalization weighting versus a portfolio invested in actual dollars.&nbsp;Yes, a&nbsp;“buy and hold”&nbsp;portfolio will grow in the financial markets over time, but it&nbsp;DOES NOT compound.<blockquote>不幸的是，市场并不是这样运作的。之间存在巨大的差异“索引”与以实际美元投资的投资组合相比，这受益于股票回购、替代和市值权重。是的，一个“买入并持有”随着时间的推移，金融市场的投资组合将会增长，但它不复合。</blockquote> Read this carefully:&nbsp;“Compound returns assume no principal loss, ever.”<blockquote>仔细阅读：“复合回报假设永远不会有本金损失。”</blockquote> To visualize the importance of this statement,&nbsp;the chart below shows $100,000, adjusted for inflation, invested in 2000 versus a 6% annual compound rate of return.&nbsp;The shaded area shows the difference between the portfolio value and the 6% rate of return.<blockquote>为了使这句话的重要性形象化，下图显示了2000年投资的100,000美元（经通货膨胀调整后）与6%的年复合回报率。阴影区域显示投资组合价值与6%回报率之间的差异。</blockquote> As noted, due to the impact of two bear markets, the investor that started in 2000 is still well short of the rate of return promised.&nbsp;The investor that began in 2007 only just recently achieved their goal. However, a bear market in the future will set them back markedly.<blockquote>如前所述，由于两次熊市的影响，2000年开始的投资者仍远未达到承诺的回报率。2007年开始的投资者最近才实现了他们的目标。然而，未来的熊市将使他们明显倒退。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642b722d27819d49b48cf1c0df187d80\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">See the problem?&nbsp;If you were 45 in 2000, you didn’t make your retirement goal.<blockquote>看到问题了吗？ 如果你在2000年45岁，你就没有实现退休目标。</blockquote> With markets now back to some of the highest valuations on record, forward returns over the next 10-years will be substantially lower than they have been over the past 10-years.<blockquote>随着市场现在回到有记录以来的最高估值，未来10年的远期回报将大大低于过去10年。</blockquote> That isn’t being bearish. That is just math.<blockquote>这并不是看跌。这只是数学。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189c9eb619a668f81de3a0cc54c09552\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Throughout history, bull market cycles are only one-half of the&nbsp;“full market”&nbsp;cycle.&nbsp;Such is because during every&nbsp;“bull market”&nbsp;cycle the markets, and economy, build up excesses that are&nbsp;“reverted”&nbsp;during the following&nbsp;“bear market.”<blockquote>纵观历史，牛市周期只有牛市周期的一半 “全市场” 周期。这是因为在每个“牛市”循环市场和经济，积累过剩“恢复”在以下期间“熊市。”</blockquote> Reversion To The Mean<blockquote>均值回归</blockquote> As Sir Issac Newton once stated:<blockquote>正如艾萨克·牛顿爵士曾经说过的：</blockquote> “What goes up, must come down.” Looking beyond the very short-term overly optimistic view of&nbsp;“this time is different,”the coming&nbsp;unwinding of current speculative extremes will occur after completing the current market cycle.<blockquote>“上升的，必须下降。”超越短期过度乐观的观点“这次不一样。”即将到来当前投机极端情况的平仓将在完成当前市场周期后发生。</blockquote> When we look at 10-year trailing returns, there is&nbsp;sufficient historical evidence to suggest total returns will decline towards zero over the next 5-years from 12% annualized currently.(These are trailing 10-year total real returns, not forward)<blockquote>当我们查看10年的追踪回报时，有有足够的历史证据表明，未来5年总回报率将从目前的年化12%降至零。（这些是过去10年的总实际回报，而不是远期回报）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b243bf4d023e73f6f5cc8a90a21e1a\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"541\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A decline in the next 3-years of only 30%, the average drawdown during a recession, will likely achieve that goal.<blockquote>未来3年仅下降30%（经济衰退期间的平均降幅）可能会实现这一目标。</blockquote> Why will a bear market eventually happen?&nbsp;It is a function of time&nbsp;(length of market cycles), math&nbsp;(valuations,)&nbsp;and physics&nbsp;(price deviations for long-term means.)<blockquote>为什么熊市最终会发生？ 它是时间的函数（市场周期长度）,数学（估值，）和物理学（长期均值的价格偏差。）</blockquote> When will it happen, and what will cause it?&nbsp;No one knows.<blockquote>什么时候会发生，什么会导致？ 没人知道。</blockquote> There is one big secret in achieving long-term investment success.<blockquote>取得长期投资成功有一个很大的秘诀。</blockquote> “ Being&nbsp; “right” &nbsp;in the first half of the market cycle is not as important&nbsp; as&nbsp; being&nbsp; “wrong” during the second half.” You really should be disappointed in Dow 40,000.<blockquote>“存在“对”在市场周期的前半段并不那么重要 作为 存在“错了”在下半年“你真的应该对道指40,000点感到失望。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dow-40000-huge-disappointment-promises\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dow-40000-huge-disappointment-promises","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161565972","content_text":"Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the “Party Hats,” it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.\nDow Milestones\n\n“Nothing says bull stock market like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossing another thousand-point barrier. The recent rise above 34K sparked a special interest. The 1,000-point move from 33,000 to 34,000 was the third fastest on record,’ and the Dow’s move was ‘its fourth thousand-point hurdle cleared this year alone.’ – John Tobey\n\nIf price acceleration in the market is a sign of investor optimism, this chart should undoubtedly support that view.\nThere were only three other times in history where the Dow advanced this rapidly:\n\n1999-2000\n2017-2018\n2019-2020\n\nUnfortunately, each of those periods ended in corrections and outright bear markets.\nMaybe it’s just a coincidence.\nMaybe “this time is different.”\nOr, it could just be that extreme exuberance by investors tends to be a later stage event.\nDow 40,000 Is A Real Disappointment\nWhat most investors tend to forget is the damage done by those market corrections and bear markets.\nHere is a good example.\nIn 2019, CNBC ran an article touting the call of “Billionaire Investor Ron Baron” that the Dow would reach 650,000 in just 50-years. Of course, that was just before the 35% rout in March 2020. However, as noted in the article:\n\n“Speaking from his annual investment conference in New York, Baron predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average, \nbased on historical moves over decades, will reach 650,000 in 50 years, with an over $500 trillion U.S. economy.”\n\nIf we do some quick math, that assumption requires a 6.6% annualized return on both the Dow and the U.S. economy. Such is undoubtedly in line with the economy’s long-term growth trends, and the charts below prove the point.\nOf course, those returns are also what financial advisors promise clients who “buy and hold” an index-based portfolio.\nHere is the problem.\nIt’s complete bulls*** on both counts.\nMr. Baron, as noted, was speaking at his “buy and hold” conference, and the tweet grabbed both attention and headlines.\nThe problem with being “bullish all the time” is that it is also perilous.\nSuch is particularly the case in late-stage “bull markets,” where seemingly ever-rising prices mask poor investment decisions and excessive portfolio “risk.” As a result, previously lousy investment ideas, products, and strategies tend to resurface in a different form or package. Investment strategies like “buy and hold” and “dollar cost averaging” become popular even though they are guaranteed to leave you well short of your financial objectives in the future.\nThe Economy No Longer Grows At 6%\nLet’s start with the economy.\nThe economy has not attained an annualized growth rate of 6% since the 1950’s when the U.S. was the manufacturing hub of the entire world. Following WWII, the majority of Europe, and Japan following two nuclear bombs, got devastated. Today, the U.S. is no longer a manufacturing hub but a services provider for ever-lower costs. Services, as compared to manufacturing, have a very low economic multiplier effect. Given $28 Trillion in debt and climbing, attaining a sustainable 6% growth rate is not possible.\nThe chart below pretty much details the problem.\nMany argue the U.S. economy has grown by more than 6% on average over the long term. (This is a true statement)However, it is also a very misleading statement. Average and actual growth are two very different things.\nIf we go back to 1901 and assume the economy grew at just 6% annualized, lower than Mr. Baron’s 6.6% suggestion, the size of the economy should be approaching $500 Trillion. Not the paltry $19 trillion at the end of 2020.\nWhat happened?\nThere were many years of low or negative economic growth.\nThe same factors hold with the Dow.\nDow 650,000\nAs noted, Mr. Baron suggests the Dow will rise to 650,000 in the next 50-years. So clearly, as a young investor, you should sock all your hard-earned savings into an “index fund” and hang on.\n\n“The stock market is literally the same thing as a high-yield savings account.” – \n Jim J. (\n names have been changed to protect the stupid.)\n\nHere’s the thing.\nThe financial media states that markets have an average annual return of 8-10%. So, assuming the Dow had compounded at just 5% since 1901, we would already be past 650,000.\nBut it’s not.\nWe are just stuck here at a “crappy ole’ 35,000.”\nAs with economic growth, there is a massive difference between compound returns and average returns. The historical performance of the markets since 1900, including dividends, has averaged a higher rate of return than just 5% annually. Therefore, the Dow shouldbe much closer to 700,000 today than 650,000 in the next 50-years.\nAgain, it’s not.\nNope…we are just hanging out way down here at 35,000.\nWhy? Because crashes matter. Such is particularly the case when it comes to your financial goals and investment time horizons.\nWhy Crashes Matter\nThink about it this way.\nIf “buy and hold” investing worked the way the media suggests, then why are the financial statistics of 80% of Americans so poor?\nThe three most significant factors are:\n\nDestruction of capital;\nLack of savings, and;\nTime.\n\nWhile lost capital gain eventually recover, the time lost “getting back to even” cannot be. Unfortunately, we don’t live forever, and time is our ultimate enemy. Such is also why, after two major bear markets, most “boomers” are simply unprepared financially for retirement.\nWho wouldn’t love a world where everyone invests some money, the markets rise 6% annually, and everyone one’s a winner?\n\nMarkets Don’t Really Compound\nUnfortunately, markets don’t work that way. A vast difference exists between an “index” that benefits from share buybacks, substitutions and market capitalization weighting versus a portfolio invested in actual dollars. Yes, a “buy and hold” portfolio will grow in the financial markets over time, but it DOES NOT compound.\nRead this carefully: “Compound returns assume no principal loss, ever.”\nTo visualize the importance of this statement, the chart below shows $100,000, adjusted for inflation, invested in 2000 versus a 6% annual compound rate of return. The shaded area shows the difference between the portfolio value and the 6% rate of return.\nAs noted, due to the impact of two bear markets, the investor that started in 2000 is still well short of the rate of return promised. The investor that began in 2007 only just recently achieved their goal. However, a bear market in the future will set them back markedly.\nSee the problem? If you were 45 in 2000, you didn’t make your retirement goal.\nWith markets now back to some of the highest valuations on record, forward returns over the next 10-years will be substantially lower than they have been over the past 10-years.\nThat isn’t being bearish. That is just math.\nThroughout history, bull market cycles are only one-half of the “full market” cycle. Such is because during every “bull market” cycle the markets, and economy, build up excesses that are “reverted” during the following “bear market.”\nReversion To The Mean\nAs Sir Issac Newton once stated:\n\n“What goes up, must come down.”\n\nLooking beyond the very short-term overly optimistic view of “this time is different,”the coming unwinding of current speculative extremes will occur after completing the current market cycle.\nWhen we look at 10-year trailing returns, there is sufficient historical evidence to suggest total returns will decline towards zero over the next 5-years from 12% annualized currently.(These are trailing 10-year total real returns, not forward)\nA decline in the next 3-years of only 30%, the average drawdown during a recession, will likely achieve that goal.\nWhy will a bear market eventually happen? It is a function of time (length of market cycles), math (valuations,) and physics (price deviations for long-term means.)\nWhen will it happen, and what will cause it? No one knows.\nThere is one big secret in achieving long-term investment success.\n\n “\n Being \n“right”\n in the first half of the market cycle is not as important \n as \n being \n“wrong”\nduring the second half.”\n\nYou really should be disappointed in Dow 40,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866516008"}