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2021-09-28

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Tech Wreck: "Secular Growth" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866533518,"tweetId":"866533518","gmtCreate":1632789358934,"gmtModify":1632797585754,"author":{"id":3563946272109058,"idStr":"3563946272109058","authorId":3563946272109058,"authorIdStr":"3563946272109058","name":"Navybean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>😅</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>😅</body></html>","text":"😅","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866533518","repostId":1122152725,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122152725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632788903,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122152725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122152725","media":"zerohedge","summary":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been underperforming significantly in recent days, especially relative to ","content":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been&nbsp;underperforming&nbsp;significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...<blockquote>“增长密集”的纳斯达克表现不佳最近几天，尤其是相对于重价值小盘股而言……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c176d2f7905544ad32c6861080813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">And that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&amp;P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day,&nbsp;Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...<blockquote>今天上午，随着收益率面临的压力继续倾向于重量级的 “长期增长 ”科技股（相对于道琼斯指数和小盘股而言，标准普尔和纳斯达克指数的权重有所下降），这一趋势正在加速。当天，罗素 2000 指数上涨 1%，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 1%...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf88e7653f89b0936296ba8a3011071\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.<blockquote>正如野村证券的Charlie McEligott今早指出的那样，实际收益率最近一直在走高（5 年期和 10 年期 TIPS 收益率是 3 个月来最小的负值），因为广泛的利率抛售看起来更像是一场风险溢价交易（由于美联储最近的政策更新引导更快的缩减+点阵图中更多的加息，持有USTs的前部和腹部的不确定性增加），而不是增长或加速的观点——或通胀预期——特别是后者自6月初以来一直横盘整理。</blockquote> Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing. There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again. Regardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.<blockquote>然后将此与长端并置，相对而言，尽管 UST 出现广泛抛售，但长端仍然坚挺得多，因为所表明的美联储政策演变使市场参与者转向长期恢复“长期停滞”的世界观随着金融状况收紧导致增长放缓，最终利率定价甚至更低。这里有一个重要的信息，即名义收益率的走高更多地与实际收益率和美联储未来的“紧缩”政策有关（以及+++供应和季节性的战术驱动因素），而不是一些有可能将较高的名义收益率误解为对 “再通胀 ”贸易动态的纯粹解读，或者 “高于趋势增长 ”的情绪再次抬头。无论“真实”催化剂与叙事如何，它都是无论哪种方式，债券都看跌，这正在推动股市的主题交易，这让许多人感到紧张- 因为在过去的一个季度里，大多数股票都重新进入了代表久期的 “成长型 ”股票，而不是减少 “周期价值 ”股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe6010165f05dc3e8d9b77b019b2a7d\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Making matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).<blockquote>对大型科技公司来说更糟的是，较大的指数成交量图夸大了“围绕纳斯达克/长期增长/债券代理的紧张情绪”，QQQs（纳斯达克）处于“负伽马”区域，而交易商则处于“现货”区域，因此表现得“紧张”。（-2.236 亿美元，仅 11.2% ile--今天在 QQQ 中回升至 375.05 美元上方），而与现货相比也是 “负三角洲”（-23 亿美元，20.8% ile，回升至 374.45 美元上方）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0ff8cb73fa0d796765294d2a46e2fd\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"646\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In other words, brace.<blockquote>换句话说，大括号。</blockquote> However, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&amp;P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).<blockquote>然而，美国股指仍有希望走高。麦克埃利戈特指出，如果利率崩溃放缓，标准普尔指数目前是 “稳定的”（虽然不是很稳定，但很稳定），回到了 “长期伽马”与现货（+$3.6B，39.7%ile，翻转至4374以下）作为绝缘动态，而同样不温不火的“长三角洲”（$62.2B，36.7%ile，翻转至4423以下负值）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-28 08:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been&nbsp;underperforming&nbsp;significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...<blockquote>“增长密集”的纳斯达克表现不佳最近几天，尤其是相对于重价值小盘股而言……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c176d2f7905544ad32c6861080813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">And that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&amp;P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day,&nbsp;Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...<blockquote>今天上午，随着收益率面临的压力继续倾向于重量级的 “长期增长 ”科技股（相对于道琼斯指数和小盘股而言，标准普尔和纳斯达克指数的权重有所下降），这一趋势正在加速。当天，罗素 2000 指数上涨 1%，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 1%...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf88e7653f89b0936296ba8a3011071\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.<blockquote>正如野村证券的Charlie McEligott今早指出的那样，实际收益率最近一直在走高（5 年期和 10 年期 TIPS 收益率是 3 个月来最小的负值），因为广泛的利率抛售看起来更像是一场风险溢价交易（由于美联储最近的政策更新引导更快的缩减+点阵图中更多的加息，持有USTs的前部和腹部的不确定性增加），而不是增长或加速的观点——或通胀预期——特别是后者自6月初以来一直横盘整理。</blockquote> Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing. There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again. Regardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.<blockquote>然后将此与长端并置，相对而言，尽管 UST 出现广泛抛售，但长端仍然坚挺得多，因为所表明的美联储政策演变使市场参与者转向长期恢复“长期停滞”的世界观随着金融状况收紧导致增长放缓，最终利率定价甚至更低。这里有一个重要的信息，即名义收益率的走高更多地与实际收益率和美联储未来的“紧缩”政策有关（以及+++供应和季节性的战术驱动因素），而不是一些有可能将较高的名义收益率误解为对 “再通胀 ”贸易动态的纯粹解读，或者 “高于趋势增长 ”的情绪再次抬头。无论“真实”催化剂与叙事如何，它都是无论哪种方式，债券都看跌，这正在推动股市的主题交易，这让许多人感到紧张- 因为在过去的一个季度里，大多数股票都重新进入了代表久期的 “成长型 ”股票，而不是减少 “周期价值 ”股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe6010165f05dc3e8d9b77b019b2a7d\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Making matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).<blockquote>对大型科技公司来说更糟的是，较大的指数成交量图夸大了“围绕纳斯达克/长期增长/债券代理的紧张情绪”，QQQs（纳斯达克）处于“负伽马”区域，而交易商则处于“现货”区域，因此表现得“紧张”。（-2.236 亿美元，仅 11.2% ile--今天在 QQQ 中回升至 375.05 美元上方），而与现货相比也是 “负三角洲”（-23 亿美元，20.8% ile，回升至 374.45 美元上方）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0ff8cb73fa0d796765294d2a46e2fd\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"646\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In other words, brace.<blockquote>换句话说，大括号。</blockquote> However, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&amp;P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).<blockquote>然而，美国股指仍有希望走高。麦克埃利戈特指出，如果利率崩溃放缓，标准普尔指数目前是 “稳定的”（虽然不是很稳定，但很稳定），回到了 “长期伽马”与现货（+$3.6B，39.7%ile，翻转至4374以下）作为绝缘动态，而同样不温不火的“长三角洲”（$62.2B，36.7%ile，翻转至4423以下负值）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wreck-secular-growth-slammed-soaring-rates-negative-gamma\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wreck-secular-growth-slammed-soaring-rates-negative-gamma","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122152725","content_text":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been underperforming significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...\nAnd that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day, Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...\nAs Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.\n\n Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards\n a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing.\n\n\n There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some\n potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again.\n\nRegardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.\nMaking matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).\nIn other words, brace.\nHowever, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2942,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866533518"}