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2021-09-28

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Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866706286,"tweetId":"866706286","gmtCreate":1632801945445,"gmtModify":1632801945541,"author":{"id":3582617881962608,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorId":3582617881962608,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":34,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866706286","repostId":1129085736,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129085736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632800151,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129085736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129085736","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould inve","content":" Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term. Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.<blockquote>在美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会减弱。投资者是否应该担心“总统选举周期”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答“是”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的。</blockquote> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.<blockquote>自道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯（+0.21%）于1896年创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出9个百分点以上。</blockquote> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.<blockquote>然而，该结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的表现差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数创立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年中，美国基准指数实际上上涨了一半以上。此外，如附图所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨，平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.<blockquote>因此，我们至少需要在根据第二年总统任期的疲软做出任何投资决策之前更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote> History of the presidential election cycle<blockquote>总统选举周期的历史</blockquote> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.<blockquote>总统选举周期是基于一个无可争议的观念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们将在任期早期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统选举到来时经济蓬勃发展。</blockquote> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.<blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只是大致一致。下表报告了道琼斯指数自1896年创立以来和1940年以来的逐年平均值。选择后一年的理论是，总统权力在20世纪30年代大幅增长，从而提高了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.<blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最糟糕的，但在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上，其平均回报与其他三年之间的差异并不显著。事实上，这四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的年份是第三年。</blockquote> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.<blockquote>这些结果基于截至9月30日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期中其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote> Midterm election and stock prices<blockquote>中期选举和股价</blockquote> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.<blockquote>如果不是研究人员最近记录的另一种季节性模式，故事就结束了。事实证明，中期选举前的六个月是股市特别疲软的时期，而中期选举后的六个月则特别强劲。</blockquote> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.<blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校名誉金融学教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.<blockquote>研究人员将股市在中期选举前的疲软归因于这些选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的实力可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.<blockquote>他们的理论在经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中得到了实证支持，该指数衡量政治来源的经济不确定性。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月下降同样多。</blockquote> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>如果这种中期前后的模式持续存在，你要到明年春天——总统选举年周期第二年的中期——才能看到股市走强。与此同时，股市仍可能表现疲软。但如果是这样，也不会是因为我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-28 11:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term. Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.<blockquote>在美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会减弱。投资者是否应该担心“总统选举周期”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答“是”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的。</blockquote> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.<blockquote>自道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯（+0.21%）于1896年创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出9个百分点以上。</blockquote> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.<blockquote>然而，该结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的表现差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数创立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年中，美国基准指数实际上上涨了一半以上。此外，如附图所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨，平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.<blockquote>因此，我们至少需要在根据第二年总统任期的疲软做出任何投资决策之前更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote> History of the presidential election cycle<blockquote>总统选举周期的历史</blockquote> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.<blockquote>总统选举周期是基于一个无可争议的观念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们将在任期早期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统选举到来时经济蓬勃发展。</blockquote> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.<blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只是大致一致。下表报告了道琼斯指数自1896年创立以来和1940年以来的逐年平均值。选择后一年的理论是，总统权力在20世纪30年代大幅增长，从而提高了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.<blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最糟糕的，但在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上，其平均回报与其他三年之间的差异并不显著。事实上，这四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的年份是第三年。</blockquote> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.<blockquote>这些结果基于截至9月30日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期中其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote> Midterm election and stock prices<blockquote>中期选举和股价</blockquote> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.<blockquote>如果不是研究人员最近记录的另一种季节性模式，故事就结束了。事实证明，中期选举前的六个月是股市特别疲软的时期，而中期选举后的六个月则特别强劲。</blockquote> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.<blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校名誉金融学教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.<blockquote>研究人员将股市在中期选举前的疲软归因于这些选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的实力可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.<blockquote>他们的理论在经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中得到了实证支持，该指数衡量政治来源的经济不确定性。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月下降同样多。</blockquote> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>如果这种中期前后的模式持续存在，你要到明年春天——总统选举年周期第二年的中期——才能看到股市走强。与此同时，股市仍可能表现疲软。但如果是这样，也不会是因为我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129085736","content_text":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\nSince the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.\nThis result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.\n\nAt a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.\nHistory of the presidential election cycle\nThe presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.\nAs many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.\n\nThough second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.\nThese results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.\nMidterm election and stock prices\nThis would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.\nThis pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.\nThe researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.\nTheir theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.\nTo the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866706286"}