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2021-09-27
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ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866825365,"tweetId":"866825365","gmtCreate":1632754869957,"gmtModify":1632798058272,"author":{"id":3574455472493609,"idStr":"3574455472493609","authorId":3574455472493609,"authorIdStr":"3574455472493609","name":"Vomous","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1523a388591c46c650f4c78ead1b8530","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>It is time to load </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>It is time to load </p></body></html>","text":"It is time to load","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866825365","repostId":1123391790,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123391790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632754543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123391790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123391790","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</li> <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li> <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p> Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing. We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 22:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</li> <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li> <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p> Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing. We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123391790","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.\nWe are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nPart of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:\n\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n\nWe also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.\nData by YCharts\nWhile shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.\nData by YCharts\nPart of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.\nData by YCharts\nAs revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.\nData by YCharts\nValuation\nWhen we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.\nData by YCharts\nOne thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.\nData by YCharts\nBack in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.\nData by YCharts\nCompetitive Advantages\nWhat we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.\nLooking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:\nWhile we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.\nThe investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:\nASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.\nThese are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nNot only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nFor these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.\nConclusion\nWhile ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866825365"}
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