CherryPang
2021-09-27
Good
The Key Market Flows Behind "Yet Another Quick Selloff"<blockquote>“又一次快速抛售”背后的关键市场流向</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
3
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866969411,"tweetId":"866969411","gmtCreate":1632724101633,"gmtModify":1632798287602,"author":{"id":3579242284896142,"idStr":"3579242284896142","authorId":3579242284896142,"authorIdStr":"3579242284896142","name":"CherryPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72256d5f02e9431fb7df955e5b3418f8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866969411","repostId":1191104956,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191104956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632720427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191104956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Key Market Flows Behind \"Yet Another Quick Selloff\"<blockquote>“又一次快速抛售”背后的关键市场流向</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191104956","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As has been the case for much of the past 6 months, equities saw another modest selloff (-4%) around","content":"<p>As has been the case for much of the past 6 months, equities saw another modest selloff (-4%) around the option expiry date similar to those in recent months (2-3% selloffs in the last 3 months), albeit exacerbated this time by fears around an Evergrande default.</p><p><blockquote>与过去6个月大部分时间的情况一样，股票在期权到期日左右再次出现小幅抛售（-4%），与近几个月类似（过去3个月抛售2-3%），尽管这一次因对恒大违约的担忧而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9acc3c994da5ffff31bbfa42a5f8f9a8\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Similar to the previous occasions, equities rebounded almost instantly as market technicals took over (as discussed in \"Nomura Reveals 'The Flow To Know' As Markets Reverse From Selling To \"Big Rally\") with the 50DMA proving once again to be stalwart support, and are now barely 2% below record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的情况类似，随着市场技术面的接管，股市几乎立即反弹（正如“野村证券揭示市场从抛售逆转为“大幅反弹”时的‘了解流程’”中所讨论的），50日均线再次被证明是坚定的支撑，目前仅比历史高点低2%。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, US equities have historically seen modest sell-offs of 3-5% every 2-3 months on average. In that context, the selloff this week was fairly typical.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国股市历来平均每2-3个月就会出现3-5%的温和抛售。在这种背景下，本周的抛售相当典型。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0322cdbd5964d73d41e06f9442bc5\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We have yet to see a more substantive selloff (5%+) since October of last year - although we did very briefly see a 5% drawdown last Monday which however faded just as quickly - putting the duration (92nd percentile) as well as the size (93rd percentile) of this rally in the top decile.</p><p><blockquote>自去年10月以来，我们还没有看到更实质性的抛售（5%以上）——尽管我们上周一确实短暂地看到了5%的下跌，但这种下跌很快就消失了——这使得这次反弹的持续时间（第92百分位）和规模（第93百分位）处于前十分位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07808349bc1c947e2b8979580a8fb1d3\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here are some notable positioning indicators:</p><p><blockquote>由德意志银行提供，以下是一些值得注意的定位指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The consolidated measure of equity positioning has been falling since late June (from the 97th to the 60th percentile).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5409902ab031112610e740c463310f\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自6月下旬以来，股票仓位的综合指标一直在下降（从第97百分位降至第60百分位）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Both discretionary investors (72nd percentile) and systematic strategies (46th percentile) have cut exposure, with discretionary positioning now at the lowest since the post-election rally, while systematic positioning is at the lowest since May.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/062b1dfad5071932dc62be98dc2ede14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全权委托投资者（第72百分位）和系统性策略（第46百分位）都削减了敞口，全权委托仓位目前处于大选后反弹以来的最低水平，而系统性仓位处于5月份以来的最低水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>However, there is a divergence between equity positioning for US large caps (read giga tech names), which has remained very robust, and that for others which has declined.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4810651a60242469ed4cf58f8516a691\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>然而，美国大盘股（阅读giga tech名称）的股票仓位仍然非常强劲，而其他大盘股的股票仓位则有所下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A subset of positioning indicators specifically tracking large-caps has remained at the higher end since mid-July even as our aggregate measure has steadily moved lower.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d112a2b929e2bdc669b578eb7d7761\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自7月中旬以来，专门跟踪大盘股的部分仓位指标一直保持在较高端，尽管我们的总体指标已稳步走低。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Equity inflows had been extremely strong going into the selloff, clocking in at over $50bn last week, the largest since March, and primarily benefiting US large caps.<b>A significant proportion of last week’s huge flows then reversed over Friday (-$20bn) and Monday (-$16bn) but inflows have resumed since.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e30c49e651aaf46c7955fae8b8e37b2\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抛售期间，股票流入极其强劲，上周超过500亿美元，为3月份以来最大，主要受益于美国大盘股。<b>上周巨额资金流入的很大一部分随后在周五（-200亿美元）和周一（-160亿美元）发生逆转，但此后资金流入又恢复。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Here, it's worth noting that most inflows have benefited almost exclusively large cap US funds, with mid caps hugging the flatline for the last year, and small caps barely higher.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/058373c7243667db0d134e4c6faf296d\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在这里，值得注意的是，大多数资金流入几乎完全惠及美国大盘股基金，中盘股与去年持平，小盘股几乎没有上涨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The aggregate put/call volume ratio rose sharply on Monday as equities sold off, but over the week quickly fell back again into the low range that it has been in since last June. Both put and call volumes had spiked on Monday, but have normalized quickly.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1f2723cbb99da006669d0e2189c251\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"491\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于股市遭到抛售，看跌/看涨期权总成交量比率周一大幅上升，但本周迅速再次回落至去年6月以来的低位区间。周一看跌期权和看涨期权交易量均飙升，但很快就恢复正常。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Most of the pickup in option volumes came from index and ETF options.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaa498a2c54b5e23a1fa719adff660b\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Within single stocks, puts and calls volumes fell last week across both large and small caps.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权成交量的回升大部分来自指数和ETF期权。</li></ul>在个股中，上周大盘股和小盘股的看跌期权和评级交易量均有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b55fba2921fdd038d65f881f2ca96c\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Vol Control funds, which had already cut their equity allocations (mostly large-cap) last Friday (67% to 65%), accelerated their selling on Monday (to 62%, 27th percentile),<b>but quickly started buying back over the next three days, and their allocations are now back to 67% (43rd percentile).</b>A spike and subsequent reversal in implied vol was the primary driver of the round.</p><p><blockquote>上周五已经削减股票配置（主要是大盘股）（67%至65%）的Vol控制基金周一加速抛售（至62%，第27个百分点），<b>但在接下来的三天里迅速开始回购，他们的配置现在回到了67%（第43百分位）。</b>隐含成交量的飙升和随后的逆转是这一轮的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db12494a8a53ab64efcfd8fcd833270a\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Meanwhile, Risk Parity funds trimmed their equity allocations only marginally during this week.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，风险平价基金本周仅小幅削减了股票配置。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6232ad0c5ab683a3a3a38e821e4a9f0\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Curiously, large cap trend signals remain strong and small cap signals actually improved slightly during the week.</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，大盘股趋势信号仍然强劲，而小盘股信号实际上在本周略有改善。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28d11f882adaf5e29a8d2599e98a0523\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">One final observation: with Q3 earnings season coming on deck, some 25% of companies have now entered their buyback blackout period. This will peak in 2-3 weeks when 80% of companies will be in their blackout period.</p><p><blockquote>最后一点观察：随着第三季度财报季的到来，约25%的公司现已进入回购封锁期。这将在2-3周内达到顶峰，届时80%的公司将处于封锁期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f56cfa38da150b0376a86c7605abdc2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Key Market Flows Behind \"Yet Another Quick Selloff\"<blockquote>“又一次快速抛售”背后的关键市场流向</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Key Market Flows Behind \"Yet Another Quick Selloff\"<blockquote>“又一次快速抛售”背后的关键市场流向</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As has been the case for much of the past 6 months, equities saw another modest selloff (-4%) around the option expiry date similar to those in recent months (2-3% selloffs in the last 3 months), albeit exacerbated this time by fears around an Evergrande default.</p><p><blockquote>与过去6个月大部分时间的情况一样，股票在期权到期日左右再次出现小幅抛售（-4%），与近几个月类似（过去3个月抛售2-3%），尽管这一次因对恒大违约的担忧而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9acc3c994da5ffff31bbfa42a5f8f9a8\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Similar to the previous occasions, equities rebounded almost instantly as market technicals took over (as discussed in \"Nomura Reveals 'The Flow To Know' As Markets Reverse From Selling To \"Big Rally\") with the 50DMA proving once again to be stalwart support, and are now barely 2% below record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的情况类似，随着市场技术面的接管，股市几乎立即反弹（正如“野村证券揭示市场从抛售逆转为“大幅反弹”时的‘了解流程’”中所讨论的），50日均线再次被证明是坚定的支撑，目前仅比历史高点低2%。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, US equities have historically seen modest sell-offs of 3-5% every 2-3 months on average. In that context, the selloff this week was fairly typical.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国股市历来平均每2-3个月就会出现3-5%的温和抛售。在这种背景下，本周的抛售相当典型。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0322cdbd5964d73d41e06f9442bc5\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We have yet to see a more substantive selloff (5%+) since October of last year - although we did very briefly see a 5% drawdown last Monday which however faded just as quickly - putting the duration (92nd percentile) as well as the size (93rd percentile) of this rally in the top decile.</p><p><blockquote>自去年10月以来，我们还没有看到更实质性的抛售（5%以上）——尽管我们上周一确实短暂地看到了5%的下跌，但这种下跌很快就消失了——这使得这次反弹的持续时间（第92百分位）和规模（第93百分位）处于前十分位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07808349bc1c947e2b8979580a8fb1d3\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here are some notable positioning indicators:</p><p><blockquote>由德意志银行提供，以下是一些值得注意的定位指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The consolidated measure of equity positioning has been falling since late June (from the 97th to the 60th percentile).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5409902ab031112610e740c463310f\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自6月下旬以来，股票仓位的综合指标一直在下降（从第97百分位降至第60百分位）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Both discretionary investors (72nd percentile) and systematic strategies (46th percentile) have cut exposure, with discretionary positioning now at the lowest since the post-election rally, while systematic positioning is at the lowest since May.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/062b1dfad5071932dc62be98dc2ede14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全权委托投资者（第72百分位）和系统性策略（第46百分位）都削减了敞口，全权委托仓位目前处于大选后反弹以来的最低水平，而系统性仓位处于5月份以来的最低水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>However, there is a divergence between equity positioning for US large caps (read giga tech names), which has remained very robust, and that for others which has declined.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4810651a60242469ed4cf58f8516a691\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>然而，美国大盘股（阅读giga tech名称）的股票仓位仍然非常强劲，而其他大盘股的股票仓位则有所下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A subset of positioning indicators specifically tracking large-caps has remained at the higher end since mid-July even as our aggregate measure has steadily moved lower.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d112a2b929e2bdc669b578eb7d7761\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自7月中旬以来，专门跟踪大盘股的部分仓位指标一直保持在较高端，尽管我们的总体指标已稳步走低。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Equity inflows had been extremely strong going into the selloff, clocking in at over $50bn last week, the largest since March, and primarily benefiting US large caps.<b>A significant proportion of last week’s huge flows then reversed over Friday (-$20bn) and Monday (-$16bn) but inflows have resumed since.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e30c49e651aaf46c7955fae8b8e37b2\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抛售期间，股票流入极其强劲，上周超过500亿美元，为3月份以来最大，主要受益于美国大盘股。<b>上周巨额资金流入的很大一部分随后在周五（-200亿美元）和周一（-160亿美元）发生逆转，但此后资金流入又恢复。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Here, it's worth noting that most inflows have benefited almost exclusively large cap US funds, with mid caps hugging the flatline for the last year, and small caps barely higher.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/058373c7243667db0d134e4c6faf296d\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在这里，值得注意的是，大多数资金流入几乎完全惠及美国大盘股基金，中盘股与去年持平，小盘股几乎没有上涨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The aggregate put/call volume ratio rose sharply on Monday as equities sold off, but over the week quickly fell back again into the low range that it has been in since last June. Both put and call volumes had spiked on Monday, but have normalized quickly.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1f2723cbb99da006669d0e2189c251\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"491\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于股市遭到抛售，看跌/看涨期权总成交量比率周一大幅上升，但本周迅速再次回落至去年6月以来的低位区间。周一看跌期权和看涨期权交易量均飙升，但很快就恢复正常。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Most of the pickup in option volumes came from index and ETF options.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaa498a2c54b5e23a1fa719adff660b\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Within single stocks, puts and calls volumes fell last week across both large and small caps.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权成交量的回升大部分来自指数和ETF期权。</li></ul>在个股中，上周大盘股和小盘股的看跌期权和评级交易量均有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b55fba2921fdd038d65f881f2ca96c\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Vol Control funds, which had already cut their equity allocations (mostly large-cap) last Friday (67% to 65%), accelerated their selling on Monday (to 62%, 27th percentile),<b>but quickly started buying back over the next three days, and their allocations are now back to 67% (43rd percentile).</b>A spike and subsequent reversal in implied vol was the primary driver of the round.</p><p><blockquote>上周五已经削减股票配置（主要是大盘股）（67%至65%）的Vol控制基金周一加速抛售（至62%，第27个百分点），<b>但在接下来的三天里迅速开始回购，他们的配置现在回到了67%（第43百分位）。</b>隐含成交量的飙升和随后的逆转是这一轮的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db12494a8a53ab64efcfd8fcd833270a\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Meanwhile, Risk Parity funds trimmed their equity allocations only marginally during this week.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，风险平价基金本周仅小幅削减了股票配置。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6232ad0c5ab683a3a3a38e821e4a9f0\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Curiously, large cap trend signals remain strong and small cap signals actually improved slightly during the week.</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，大盘股趋势信号仍然强劲，而小盘股信号实际上在本周略有改善。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28d11f882adaf5e29a8d2599e98a0523\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">One final observation: with Q3 earnings season coming on deck, some 25% of companies have now entered their buyback blackout period. This will peak in 2-3 weeks when 80% of companies will be in their blackout period.</p><p><blockquote>最后一点观察：随着第三季度财报季的到来，约25%的公司现已进入回购封锁期。这将在2-3周内达到顶峰，届时80%的公司将处于封锁期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f56cfa38da150b0376a86c7605abdc2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/key-market-flows-behind-another-quick-selloff\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/key-market-flows-behind-another-quick-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191104956","content_text":"As has been the case for much of the past 6 months, equities saw another modest selloff (-4%) around the option expiry date similar to those in recent months (2-3% selloffs in the last 3 months), albeit exacerbated this time by fears around an Evergrande default.\n\nSimilar to the previous occasions, equities rebounded almost instantly as market technicals took over (as discussed in \"Nomura Reveals 'The Flow To Know' As Markets Reverse From Selling To \"Big Rally\") with the 50DMA proving once again to be stalwart support, and are now barely 2% below record highs.\nMoreover, US equities have historically seen modest sell-offs of 3-5% every 2-3 months on average. In that context, the selloff this week was fairly typical.\nWe have yet to see a more substantive selloff (5%+) since October of last year - although we did very briefly see a 5% drawdown last Monday which however faded just as quickly - putting the duration (92nd percentile) as well as the size (93rd percentile) of this rally in the top decile.\n\nCourtesy of Deutsche Bank, here are some notable positioning indicators:\n\nThe consolidated measure of equity positioning has been falling since late June (from the 97th to the 60th percentile).\n\n\n\nBoth discretionary investors (72nd percentile) and systematic strategies (46th percentile) have cut exposure, with discretionary positioning now at the lowest since the post-election rally, while systematic positioning is at the lowest since May.\n\n\n\nHowever, there is a divergence between equity positioning for US large caps (read giga tech names), which has remained very robust, and that for others which has declined.\n\n\n\nA subset of positioning indicators specifically tracking large-caps has remained at the higher end since mid-July even as our aggregate measure has steadily moved lower.\n\n\n\nEquity inflows had been extremely strong going into the selloff, clocking in at over $50bn last week, the largest since March, and primarily benefiting US large caps.A significant proportion of last week’s huge flows then reversed over Friday (-$20bn) and Monday (-$16bn) but inflows have resumed since.\n\n\n\nHere, it's worth noting that most inflows have benefited almost exclusively large cap US funds, with mid caps hugging the flatline for the last year, and small caps barely higher.\n\n\n\nThe aggregate put/call volume ratio rose sharply on Monday as equities sold off, but over the week quickly fell back again into the low range that it has been in since last June. Both put and call volumes had spiked on Monday, but have normalized quickly.\n\n\n\nMost of the pickup in option volumes came from index and ETF options.\n\nWithin single stocks, puts and calls volumes fell last week across both large and small caps.\nVol Control funds, which had already cut their equity allocations (mostly large-cap) last Friday (67% to 65%), accelerated their selling on Monday (to 62%, 27th percentile),but quickly started buying back over the next three days, and their allocations are now back to 67% (43rd percentile).A spike and subsequent reversal in implied vol was the primary driver of the round.\nMeanwhile, Risk Parity funds trimmed their equity allocations only marginally during this week.\n\nCuriously, large cap trend signals remain strong and small cap signals actually improved slightly during the week.\nOne final observation: with Q3 earnings season coming on deck, some 25% of companies have now entered their buyback blackout period. This will peak in 2-3 weeks when 80% of companies will be in their blackout period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866969411"}
精彩评论