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2021-09-22

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Is The Chip Cycle Peaking? Analysts Debate Semiconductor Stocks<blockquote>芯片周期见顶了吗？分析师辩论半导体股票</blockquote>

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Analysts Debate Semiconductor Stocks<blockquote>芯片周期见顶了吗？分析师辩论半导体股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168068560","media":"Investors","summary":"Wall Street analysts are playing a guessing game over when the current uptrend in the chip cycle will inevitably end.","content":"<p>Wall Street analysts are playing a guessing game over when the current uptrend in the chip cycle will inevitably end. Some say the industry is midway through its current growth cycle while others see the business peaking now with a downtrend ahead. Meanwhile, prospects for semiconductor stocks hang in the balance.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师正在玩一场猜测游戏，猜测当前芯片周期的上升趋势何时将不可避免地结束。一些人表示，该行业正处于当前增长周期的中期，而另一些人则认为该行业现在正处于顶峰，未来将出现下降趋势。与此同时，半导体股的前景悬而未决。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, semiconductor stocks tumbled along with the broader market indexes. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, known as SOX, dropped 2.5% in morning trading on the stock market today. The SOX includes 30 semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一，半导体股与大盘指数一起暴跌。费城半导体指数（SOX）在今天的股市早盘交易中下跌了2.5%。SOX 包括 30 只半导体股票。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry is seeing signs of flat to decelerating growth, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Vijay Rakesh 在周日给客户的一份报告中表示，半导体行业出现了增长持平或放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"The recent cooling of semiconductor demand could continue through the rest of the year, as constrained supply chains and shortages have continued to impact (the automotive and industrial markets), especially with slowing trends in China,\" Rakesh said.</p><p><blockquote>Rakesh 表示：“最近半导体需求的降温可能会持续到今年剩余时间，因为供应链受限和短缺继续影响（汽车和工业市场），特别是中国的趋势放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> <h2>'Best Ideas' In Semiconductor Stocks</h2> Among semiconductor stocks, Rakesh prefers names tied to 5G wireless and the recovering enterprise market. He likes <b>Broadcom</b>, <b>Nvidia</b>, <b>Qorvo</b>, <b>Qualcomm</b> and <b>Skyworks Solutions</b>.</p><p><blockquote><h2>半导体股票的“最佳创意”</h2>在半导体股票中，Rakesh 更喜欢与 5G 无线和复苏的企业市场相关的股票。他喜欢<b>博通</b>,<b>英伟达</b>,<b>科尔沃</b>,<b>高通</b>和<b>Skyworks解决方案</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Truist Securities analyst William Stein believes the third quarter will be the peak of the current chip cycle. However, the semiconductor industry will still see healthy sales well into next year, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Securities分析师William Stein认为，第三季度将是当前芯片周期的顶峰。然而，他表示，明年半导体行业仍将保持健康的销售。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that Q3 marks the 'true' peak of the fundamental semi cycle\" based on year-over-year sales growth, he said in a note to clients on Friday. \"Semi companies are likely to continue to post upside in Q3, Q4, and into 2022, and supply will not catch up with demand until at least late 2022, potentially later.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周五给客户的一份报告中表示，基于同比销售增长，“我们仍然相信第三季度标志着基本半周期的‘真正’峰值”。“Semi 公司可能会在第三季度、第四季度和 2022 年继续保持上涨空间，供应至少要到 2022 年底才能赶上需求，甚至可能更晚。”</blockquote></p><p> Of the semiconductor stocks he covers, Stein rates Nvidia and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">Monolithic Power Systems</a></b> as his \"best growth ideas.\"</p><p><blockquote>在他涵盖的半导体股票中，Stein 对 Nvidia 和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">单片电力系统</a></b>作为他的“最佳成长理念”。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Stronger-For-Longer Chip Cycle</h2> BofA Securities sees the good times continuing for semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote><h2>更强的芯片周期更长</h2>美国银行证券认为半导体股的好日子仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> \"We remain firmly in the stronger-for-longer camp for semis given their critical role in the rapidly digitizing global economy and the newfound pricing power and supply discipline of this remarkably profitable industry operating with a very lean supply chain,\" BofA analysts said in a note to clients Friday. \"We expect above-trend growth to last through next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师表示：“鉴于半成品在快速数字化的全球经济中发挥着关键作用，以及这个以非常精益的供应链运营的利润丰厚的行业新发现的定价权和供应纪律，我们仍然坚定地处于长期强势阵营。”周五给客户的一份报告中。“我们预计高于趋势的增长将持续到明年。”</blockquote></p><p> BofA analysts see hot spots of growth for chips in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, 5G wireless, gaming and other markets. They see automotive chip sales picking up as supply chain shortages are resolved.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师认为人工智能、云计算、5G无线、游戏和其他市场的芯片是增长热点。他们认为，随着供应链短缺问题的解决，汽车芯片销量将会回升。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Investors Worry About Oversupply</h2> Investors in semiconductor stocks are concerned that chip shortages could result in double ordering and eventually an oversupply. But many analysts think chipmakers have learned from past semiconductor cycles and are smarter about supply dynamics now.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者担心供应过剩</h2>半导体股票的投资者担心芯片短缺可能会导致双重订购，最终导致供应过剩。但许多分析师认为，芯片制造商已经从过去的半导体周期中吸取了教训，现在对供应动态更加明智。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inventory levels remain lean and double ordering remains a concern, though we suspect there is very little double fulfillment,\" Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse said in a recent report. \"Eventually lead times will begin to shrink and this will remain a worry for investors.\"</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 C.J. 表示：“库存水平仍然很低，双重订购仍然令人担忧，尽管我们怀疑双重履行的情况很少。”缪斯在最近的一份报告中表示。“最终交货时间将开始缩短，这仍将是投资者的担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> He named <b>Analog Devices</b>, <b>Marvell Technology</b> and Nvidia among his \"top picks\" in semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote>他命名<b>模拟器件</b>,<b>马维尔科技</b>英伟达是他在半导体股票中的“首选”之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann believes the semiconductor industry is experiencing \"the Mother of All Cycles.\" The current uptrend in the chip cycle could be stretching beyond the usual period of six quarters, he said. The current cycle might peak in the first half of 2022, Mosesmann said in a recent report.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenblatt Securities 分析师 Hans Mosesmann 认为，半导体行业正在经历“所有周期之母”。他表示，目前芯片周期的上升趋势可能会超过通常的六个季度。Mosesmann 在最近的一份报告中表示，当前周期可能会在 2022 年上半年达到顶峰。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe demand dynamics in 2022 continue to be strong in data center, communications, industrial, and automotive as enterprise starts to recover starting in the fall of 2021,\" Mosesmann said. \"We see the PC market to be relatively solid after a year of hyper growth led by work-from-home dynamics.\"</p><p><blockquote>Mosesmann 表示：“我们相信，随着企业从 2021 年秋季开始复苏，2022 年数据中心、通信、工业和汽车领域的需求动态将继续强劲。”“我们认为个人电脑市场在经历了一年由在家工作动力引领的高速增长后相对稳健。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The Chip Cycle Peaking? Analysts Debate Semiconductor Stocks<blockquote>芯片周期见顶了吗？分析师辩论半导体股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The Chip Cycle Peaking? Analysts Debate Semiconductor Stocks<blockquote>芯片周期见顶了吗？分析师辩论半导体股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-22 15:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street analysts are playing a guessing game over when the current uptrend in the chip cycle will inevitably end. Some say the industry is midway through its current growth cycle while others see the business peaking now with a downtrend ahead. Meanwhile, prospects for semiconductor stocks hang in the balance.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师正在玩一场猜测游戏，猜测当前芯片周期的上升趋势何时将不可避免地结束。一些人表示，该行业正处于当前增长周期的中期，而另一些人则认为该行业现在正处于顶峰，未来将出现下降趋势。与此同时，半导体股的前景悬而未决。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, semiconductor stocks tumbled along with the broader market indexes. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, known as SOX, dropped 2.5% in morning trading on the stock market today. The SOX includes 30 semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一，半导体股与大盘指数一起暴跌。费城半导体指数（SOX）在今天的股市早盘交易中下跌了2.5%。SOX 包括 30 只半导体股票。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry is seeing signs of flat to decelerating growth, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Vijay Rakesh 在周日给客户的一份报告中表示，半导体行业出现了增长持平或放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"The recent cooling of semiconductor demand could continue through the rest of the year, as constrained supply chains and shortages have continued to impact (the automotive and industrial markets), especially with slowing trends in China,\" Rakesh said.</p><p><blockquote>Rakesh 表示：“最近半导体需求的降温可能会持续到今年剩余时间，因为供应链受限和短缺继续影响（汽车和工业市场），特别是中国的趋势放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> <h2>'Best Ideas' In Semiconductor Stocks</h2> Among semiconductor stocks, Rakesh prefers names tied to 5G wireless and the recovering enterprise market. He likes <b>Broadcom</b>, <b>Nvidia</b>, <b>Qorvo</b>, <b>Qualcomm</b> and <b>Skyworks Solutions</b>.</p><p><blockquote><h2>半导体股票的“最佳创意”</h2>在半导体股票中，Rakesh 更喜欢与 5G 无线和复苏的企业市场相关的股票。他喜欢<b>博通</b>,<b>英伟达</b>,<b>科尔沃</b>,<b>高通</b>和<b>Skyworks解决方案</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Truist Securities analyst William Stein believes the third quarter will be the peak of the current chip cycle. However, the semiconductor industry will still see healthy sales well into next year, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Securities分析师William Stein认为，第三季度将是当前芯片周期的顶峰。然而，他表示，明年半导体行业仍将保持健康的销售。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that Q3 marks the 'true' peak of the fundamental semi cycle\" based on year-over-year sales growth, he said in a note to clients on Friday. \"Semi companies are likely to continue to post upside in Q3, Q4, and into 2022, and supply will not catch up with demand until at least late 2022, potentially later.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周五给客户的一份报告中表示，基于同比销售增长，“我们仍然相信第三季度标志着基本半周期的‘真正’峰值”。“Semi 公司可能会在第三季度、第四季度和 2022 年继续保持上涨空间，供应至少要到 2022 年底才能赶上需求，甚至可能更晚。”</blockquote></p><p> Of the semiconductor stocks he covers, Stein rates Nvidia and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">Monolithic Power Systems</a></b> as his \"best growth ideas.\"</p><p><blockquote>在他涵盖的半导体股票中，Stein 对 Nvidia 和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">单片电力系统</a></b>作为他的“最佳成长理念”。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Stronger-For-Longer Chip Cycle</h2> BofA Securities sees the good times continuing for semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote><h2>更强的芯片周期更长</h2>美国银行证券认为半导体股的好日子仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> \"We remain firmly in the stronger-for-longer camp for semis given their critical role in the rapidly digitizing global economy and the newfound pricing power and supply discipline of this remarkably profitable industry operating with a very lean supply chain,\" BofA analysts said in a note to clients Friday. \"We expect above-trend growth to last through next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师表示：“鉴于半成品在快速数字化的全球经济中发挥着关键作用，以及这个以非常精益的供应链运营的利润丰厚的行业新发现的定价权和供应纪律，我们仍然坚定地处于长期强势阵营。”周五给客户的一份报告中。“我们预计高于趋势的增长将持续到明年。”</blockquote></p><p> BofA analysts see hot spots of growth for chips in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, 5G wireless, gaming and other markets. They see automotive chip sales picking up as supply chain shortages are resolved.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师认为人工智能、云计算、5G无线、游戏和其他市场的芯片是增长热点。他们认为，随着供应链短缺问题的解决，汽车芯片销量将会回升。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Investors Worry About Oversupply</h2> Investors in semiconductor stocks are concerned that chip shortages could result in double ordering and eventually an oversupply. But many analysts think chipmakers have learned from past semiconductor cycles and are smarter about supply dynamics now.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者担心供应过剩</h2>半导体股票的投资者担心芯片短缺可能会导致双重订购，最终导致供应过剩。但许多分析师认为，芯片制造商已经从过去的半导体周期中吸取了教训，现在对供应动态更加明智。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inventory levels remain lean and double ordering remains a concern, though we suspect there is very little double fulfillment,\" Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse said in a recent report. \"Eventually lead times will begin to shrink and this will remain a worry for investors.\"</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 C.J. 表示：“库存水平仍然很低，双重订购仍然令人担忧，尽管我们怀疑双重履行的情况很少。”缪斯在最近的一份报告中表示。“最终交货时间将开始缩短，这仍将是投资者的担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> He named <b>Analog Devices</b>, <b>Marvell Technology</b> and Nvidia among his \"top picks\" in semiconductor stocks.</p><p><blockquote>他命名<b>模拟器件</b>,<b>马维尔科技</b>英伟达是他在半导体股票中的“首选”之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann believes the semiconductor industry is experiencing \"the Mother of All Cycles.\" The current uptrend in the chip cycle could be stretching beyond the usual period of six quarters, he said. The current cycle might peak in the first half of 2022, Mosesmann said in a recent report.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenblatt Securities 分析师 Hans Mosesmann 认为，半导体行业正在经历“所有周期之母”。他表示，目前芯片周期的上升趋势可能会超过通常的六个季度。Mosesmann 在最近的一份报告中表示，当前周期可能会在 2022 年上半年达到顶峰。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe demand dynamics in 2022 continue to be strong in data center, communications, industrial, and automotive as enterprise starts to recover starting in the fall of 2021,\" Mosesmann said. \"We see the PC market to be relatively solid after a year of hyper growth led by work-from-home dynamics.\"</p><p><blockquote>Mosesmann 表示：“我们相信，随着企业从 2021 年秋季开始复苏，2022 年数据中心、通信、工业和汽车领域的需求动态将继续强劲。”“我们认为个人电脑市场在经历了一年由在家工作动力引领的高速增长后相对稳健。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168068560","content_text":"Wall Street analysts are playing a guessing game over when the current uptrend in the chip cycle will inevitably end. Some say the industry is midway through its current growth cycle while others see the business peaking now with a downtrend ahead. Meanwhile, prospects for semiconductor stocks hang in the balance.\nOn Monday, semiconductor stocks tumbled along with the broader market indexes. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, known as SOX, dropped 2.5% in morning trading on the stock market today. The SOX includes 30 semiconductor stocks.\nThe semiconductor industry is seeing signs of flat to decelerating growth, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said in a note to clients Sunday.\n\"The recent cooling of semiconductor demand could continue through the rest of the year, as constrained supply chains and shortages have continued to impact (the automotive and industrial markets), especially with slowing trends in China,\" Rakesh said.\n'Best Ideas' In Semiconductor Stocks\nAmong semiconductor stocks, Rakesh prefers names tied to 5G wireless and the recovering enterprise market. He likes Broadcom, Nvidia, Qorvo, Qualcomm and Skyworks Solutions.\nTruist Securities analyst William Stein believes the third quarter will be the peak of the current chip cycle. However, the semiconductor industry will still see healthy sales well into next year, he said.\n\"We continue to believe that Q3 marks the 'true' peak of the fundamental semi cycle\" based on year-over-year sales growth, he said in a note to clients on Friday. \"Semi companies are likely to continue to post upside in Q3, Q4, and into 2022, and supply will not catch up with demand until at least late 2022, potentially later.\"\nOf the semiconductor stocks he covers, Stein rates Nvidia and Monolithic Power Systems as his \"best growth ideas.\"\nStronger-For-Longer Chip Cycle\nBofA Securities sees the good times continuing for semiconductor stocks.\n\"We remain firmly in the stronger-for-longer camp for semis given their critical role in the rapidly digitizing global economy and the newfound pricing power and supply discipline of this remarkably profitable industry operating with a very lean supply chain,\" BofA analysts said in a note to clients Friday. \"We expect above-trend growth to last through next year.\"\nBofA analysts see hot spots of growth for chips in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, 5G wireless, gaming and other markets. They see automotive chip sales picking up as supply chain shortages are resolved.\nInvestors Worry About Oversupply\nInvestors in semiconductor stocks are concerned that chip shortages could result in double ordering and eventually an oversupply. But many analysts think chipmakers have learned from past semiconductor cycles and are smarter about supply dynamics now.\n\"Inventory levels remain lean and double ordering remains a concern, though we suspect there is very little double fulfillment,\" Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse said in a recent report. \"Eventually lead times will begin to shrink and this will remain a worry for investors.\"\nHe named Analog Devices, Marvell Technology and Nvidia among his \"top picks\" in semiconductor stocks.\nRosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann believes the semiconductor industry is experiencing \"the Mother of All Cycles.\" The current uptrend in the chip cycle could be stretching beyond the usual period of six quarters, he said. The current cycle might peak in the first half of 2022, Mosesmann said in a recent report.\n\"We believe demand dynamics in 2022 continue to be strong in data center, communications, industrial, and automotive as enterprise starts to recover starting in the fall of 2021,\" Mosesmann said. \"We see the PC market to be relatively solid after a year of hyper growth led by work-from-home dynamics.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2708,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/869229458"}