Davidgoh18
2021-11-11
Market swing expected
Broad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming<blockquote>广泛抛售表明通胀担忧正在升温</blockquote>
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On Wednesday, there","content":"<p>For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，投资者对价格上涨的担忧相对较少。周三，有迹象表明情况可能会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while the technology-fueled Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 264 points, or 1.7%. In the government bond market, longer-term Treasury securities, which generally are most sensitive to inflation expectations, fell in price, as did short-term Treasurys, which tend to anticipate interest-rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest rise in a year. When bond prices fall, yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 240 点，跌幅 0.7%，而科技推动的纳斯达克综合指数下跌 264 点，跌幅 1.7%。在政府债券市场，通常对通胀预期最敏感的长期国债价格下跌，短期国债价格也下跌，短期国债往往会预期美联储的利率变动。10年期国债收益率创下一年来最大涨幅。当债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s price moves—following a Labor Department report showing the consumer price-indexrose at a 6.2% annual rate, its fastest pace since 1990—suggest that investors are preparing for both higher inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed over the next two years. But the declines weren’t dramatic, traders and analysts said, especially given that the inflation figures were higher than expected.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告显示，消费者价格指数年增长率为 6.2%，为 1990 年以来的最快增速，周三的价格走势表明，投资者正在为通胀上升和美联储在未来两年采取激进举措做好准备。但交易员和分析师表示，降幅并不剧烈，尤其是考虑到通胀数据高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term bond prices have been resilient for weeks and may have been due for a pullback, they said, suggesting that Wednesday’s selling may not herald a sea change in a market whose strength has surprised many this year.</p><p><blockquote>他们说，长期债券价格几周来一直保持弹性，可能已经到了回调的地步，这表明周三的抛售可能不会预示着市场的巨大变化，而今年市场的强势令许多人感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> “This is not a panic reaction,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group in Chicago. He said trading volume for long-term Treasurys was just a bit higher than on usual days. “It’s much too soon to assume the Fed will quicken the pace” of its expected moves to boost interest rates over the next year or so, Mr. Brien said.</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 DRW Trading Group 的策略师 Lou Brien 说：”这不是恐慌反应。他表示，长期国债的交易量仅略高于平时。布莱恩先生说，“现在就假设美联储会在未来一年左右加快 ”其预期加息步伐还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Away from Wall Street, angst is growing about rising prices. As the Christmas season approaches, expectations are growing that consumers will feel more inflation pressures, among the reasons polls show President Biden’s popularity dropping.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街之外，人们对价格上涨的担忧正在加剧。随着圣诞节的临近，人们越来越预期消费者将感受到更大的通胀压力，这也是民调显示拜登总统支持率下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> “Just about everything is going to cost consumers more this holiday season,” Wells Fargo analysts said Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“富国银行分析师周三表示：”在这个假期，几乎所有东西都会让消费者付出更多。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is vowing to address rising inflation, aware that voters are becoming increasingly worried about how higher prices may eat into their paychecks. After the inflation report was released Wednesday, the White House issued a statement from Mr. Biden saying, “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府发誓要解决不断上升的通货膨胀问题，因为他们意识到选民越来越担心物价上涨会如何侵蚀他们的工资。周三发布通胀报告后，白宫发表声明称：“通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p> Selling in the bond market initially focused on short-term U.S. Treasurys, which would be most directly affected if the Fed raises rates over the next few years, though it soon spread to longer-term securities, like the 10-year note and 30-year bond.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场的抛售最初集中在短期美国国债上，如果美联储在未来几年加息，美国国债将受到最直接的影响，尽管它很快就会蔓延到长期证券，如10年期票据和30年期债券。</blockquote></p><p> Since about June, when Fed officials emphasized that their tolerance for inflation was limited, bond investors have been quick to sell short-term Treasurys in response to high inflation numbers. But enthusiasm for longer-term bonds, which usually react to long-term inflation expectations, has been fairly strong.</p><p><blockquote>自6月左右美联储官员强调他们对通胀的容忍度有限以来，债券投资者迅速抛售短期国债，以应对高通胀数据。但人们对长期债券的热情相当强烈，因为长期债券通常会对长期通胀预期做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> High inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of their fixed-interest payments and can spur monetary authorities to push short-term interest rates higher. But many investors have viewed expected moves by the Fed to raise interest rates over the next two years as likely to reduce the risk of runaway inflation, making long-term bonds potentially attractive.</p><p><blockquote>高通胀对债券不利，因为它会侵蚀债券固定利率支付的购买力，并可能刺激货币当局推高短期利率。但许多投资者认为，美联储未来两年加息的预期举措可能会降低通胀失控的风险，从而使长期债券具有潜在吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled Wednesday at 1.558%. That’s still well below its 2021 high of 1.749% set at the end of March and even its recent peak of 1.674% reached on Oct. 21, underscoring how investors have kept buying these bonds.</p><p><blockquote>基准 10 年期国债收益率周三收于 1.558%。这仍远低于 3 月底创下的 2021 年高点 1.749%，甚至低于 10 月 21 日创下的 1.674% 的近期峰值，这凸显了投资者是如何持续购买这些债券的。</blockquote></p><p> For now, investors still expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, but then drop to a level that is around the Fed’s 2% annual target, as bottlenecks in the economy ease and the central bank removes support for the economy. Investors acknowledged that Wednesday’s report showed inflation concerns can’t be dismissed, with prices rising across a broad range of categories, including those like housing costs that tend to be sticky.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者仍预计通胀率在可预见的未来仍将居高不下，但随着经济瓶颈的缓解和央行取消对经济的支持，通胀率将降至美联储 2% 的年度目标附近。投资者承认，周三的报告显示，通胀担忧不容忽视，价格在广泛的类别中都在上涨，包括住房成本等往往具有粘性的类别。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many continued to argue that inflation will moderate starting next year, at the very least because next year’s prices will no longer be compared to last year’s deeply depressed levels. They said that pressures are likely to ease once the holiday shopping period is over and as producers gradually ramp up the supply of goods to meet red-hot demand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多人仍然认为，通货膨胀将从明年开始放缓，至少因为明年的物价将不再与去年的严重低迷水平相提并论。他们表示，一旦假日购物季结束，随着生产商逐步增加商品供应以满足旺盛需求，压力可能会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Scott Kimball, co-head of U.S. fixed income for BMO Global Asset Management, said his team bought Treasurys on Wednesday to take advantage of the higher yields. Inflation, he said, should still be viewed as a transitory phenomenon tied to the quirks of the pandemic economy. As economic stimulus wanes and “we get back to an economy that’s producing GDP based on its own real output potential…inflation will fall back in line,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Global Asset Management 美国固定收益联席主管斯科特·金博尔 (Scott Kimball) 表示，他的团队周三购买了国债，以利用较高的收益率。他说，通货膨胀仍应被视为与疫情经济怪癖相关的短暂现象。他说，随着经济刺激措施的减弱，“我们又回到了一个根据自身实际产出潜力生产国内生产总值的经济体.通货膨胀将相应回落”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stocks remain near all-time highs, after a run that has taken the major U.S. indexes to 153 record closes this year, the most since 2017. Even on Wednesday, some investors were generally blasé about the inflation report.</p><p><blockquote>今年美国主要股指收盘价达到创纪录的 153 点，为 2017 年以来的最高纪录，股市仍接近历史高点。即使在周三，一些投资者对通胀报告普遍冷淡。</blockquote></p><p> Aaron Weitman, who runs New York-based hedge fund CastleKnight Management LP, which invests in both stocks and bonds, didn’t do much in reaction to the inflation data.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于纽约的对冲基金 CastleKnight Management LP 的负责人亚伦-惠特曼（Aaron Weitman）对通胀数据并没有太大反应。</blockquote></p><p> “I didn’t see it as surprising,” Mr. Weitman said. “We’ve been getting cautious about inflation and interest-rate risks for months.”</p><p><blockquote>“惠特曼先生说：”我认为这并不奇怪。“几个月来，我们一直对通胀和利率风险持谨慎态度”。</blockquote></p><p> The relaxed reaction in stocks suggested an optimism that corporate earnings will continue to grow as prices rise, and that interest rates over the next year or so won’t rise enough to crimp shares. Though widely held, it’s a view some have found perplexing.</p><p><blockquote>股市的放松反应表明，人们乐观地认为，随着物价上涨，企业盈利将继续增长，而未来一年左右的利率不会上升到压制股市的程度。虽然这种观点被广泛持有，但有些人对此感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market keeps whistling past the inflation and monetary tightening that is upon us,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.</p><p><blockquote>“布莱克利咨询集团（Bleakley Advisory Group）首席投资官彼得-布克瓦尔（Peter Boockvar）说：”股市不断吹响通货膨胀和即将到来的货币紧缩政策的哨声。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming<blockquote>广泛抛售表明通胀担忧正在升温</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroad Selloff Signals Inflation Fears Are Warming<blockquote>广泛抛售表明通胀担忧正在升温</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-11 15:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，投资者对价格上涨的担忧相对较少。周三，有迹象表明情况可能会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while the technology-fueled Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 264 points, or 1.7%. In the government bond market, longer-term Treasury securities, which generally are most sensitive to inflation expectations, fell in price, as did short-term Treasurys, which tend to anticipate interest-rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest rise in a year. When bond prices fall, yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 240 点，跌幅 0.7%，而科技推动的纳斯达克综合指数下跌 264 点，跌幅 1.7%。在政府债券市场，通常对通胀预期最敏感的长期国债价格下跌，短期国债价格也下跌，短期国债往往会预期美联储的利率变动。10年期国债收益率创下一年来最大涨幅。当债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s price moves—following a Labor Department report showing the consumer price-indexrose at a 6.2% annual rate, its fastest pace since 1990—suggest that investors are preparing for both higher inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed over the next two years. But the declines weren’t dramatic, traders and analysts said, especially given that the inflation figures were higher than expected.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告显示，消费者价格指数年增长率为 6.2%，为 1990 年以来的最快增速，周三的价格走势表明，投资者正在为通胀上升和美联储在未来两年采取激进举措做好准备。但交易员和分析师表示，降幅并不剧烈，尤其是考虑到通胀数据高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term bond prices have been resilient for weeks and may have been due for a pullback, they said, suggesting that Wednesday’s selling may not herald a sea change in a market whose strength has surprised many this year.</p><p><blockquote>他们说，长期债券价格几周来一直保持弹性，可能已经到了回调的地步，这表明周三的抛售可能不会预示着市场的巨大变化，而今年市场的强势令许多人感到意外。</blockquote></p><p> “This is not a panic reaction,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group in Chicago. He said trading volume for long-term Treasurys was just a bit higher than on usual days. “It’s much too soon to assume the Fed will quicken the pace” of its expected moves to boost interest rates over the next year or so, Mr. Brien said.</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 DRW Trading Group 的策略师 Lou Brien 说：”这不是恐慌反应。他表示，长期国债的交易量仅略高于平时。布莱恩先生说，“现在就假设美联储会在未来一年左右加快 ”其预期加息步伐还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Away from Wall Street, angst is growing about rising prices. As the Christmas season approaches, expectations are growing that consumers will feel more inflation pressures, among the reasons polls show President Biden’s popularity dropping.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街之外，人们对价格上涨的担忧正在加剧。随着圣诞节的临近，人们越来越预期消费者将感受到更大的通胀压力，这也是民调显示拜登总统支持率下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> “Just about everything is going to cost consumers more this holiday season,” Wells Fargo analysts said Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“富国银行分析师周三表示：”在这个假期，几乎所有东西都会让消费者付出更多。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is vowing to address rising inflation, aware that voters are becoming increasingly worried about how higher prices may eat into their paychecks. After the inflation report was released Wednesday, the White House issued a statement from Mr. Biden saying, “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府发誓要解决不断上升的通货膨胀问题，因为他们意识到选民越来越担心物价上涨会如何侵蚀他们的工资。周三发布通胀报告后，白宫发表声明称：“通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p> Selling in the bond market initially focused on short-term U.S. Treasurys, which would be most directly affected if the Fed raises rates over the next few years, though it soon spread to longer-term securities, like the 10-year note and 30-year bond.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场的抛售最初集中在短期美国国债上，如果美联储在未来几年加息，美国国债将受到最直接的影响，尽管它很快就会蔓延到长期证券，如10年期票据和30年期债券。</blockquote></p><p> Since about June, when Fed officials emphasized that their tolerance for inflation was limited, bond investors have been quick to sell short-term Treasurys in response to high inflation numbers. But enthusiasm for longer-term bonds, which usually react to long-term inflation expectations, has been fairly strong.</p><p><blockquote>自6月左右美联储官员强调他们对通胀的容忍度有限以来，债券投资者迅速抛售短期国债，以应对高通胀数据。但人们对长期债券的热情相当强烈，因为长期债券通常会对长期通胀预期做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> High inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of their fixed-interest payments and can spur monetary authorities to push short-term interest rates higher. But many investors have viewed expected moves by the Fed to raise interest rates over the next two years as likely to reduce the risk of runaway inflation, making long-term bonds potentially attractive.</p><p><blockquote>高通胀对债券不利，因为它会侵蚀债券固定利率支付的购买力，并可能刺激货币当局推高短期利率。但许多投资者认为，美联储未来两年加息的预期举措可能会降低通胀失控的风险，从而使长期债券具有潜在吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled Wednesday at 1.558%. That’s still well below its 2021 high of 1.749% set at the end of March and even its recent peak of 1.674% reached on Oct. 21, underscoring how investors have kept buying these bonds.</p><p><blockquote>基准 10 年期国债收益率周三收于 1.558%。这仍远低于 3 月底创下的 2021 年高点 1.749%，甚至低于 10 月 21 日创下的 1.674% 的近期峰值，这凸显了投资者是如何持续购买这些债券的。</blockquote></p><p> For now, investors still expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, but then drop to a level that is around the Fed’s 2% annual target, as bottlenecks in the economy ease and the central bank removes support for the economy. Investors acknowledged that Wednesday’s report showed inflation concerns can’t be dismissed, with prices rising across a broad range of categories, including those like housing costs that tend to be sticky.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者仍预计通胀率在可预见的未来仍将居高不下，但随着经济瓶颈的缓解和央行取消对经济的支持，通胀率将降至美联储 2% 的年度目标附近。投资者承认，周三的报告显示，通胀担忧不容忽视，价格在广泛的类别中都在上涨，包括住房成本等往往具有粘性的类别。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many continued to argue that inflation will moderate starting next year, at the very least because next year’s prices will no longer be compared to last year’s deeply depressed levels. They said that pressures are likely to ease once the holiday shopping period is over and as producers gradually ramp up the supply of goods to meet red-hot demand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多人仍然认为，通货膨胀将从明年开始放缓，至少因为明年的物价将不再与去年的严重低迷水平相提并论。他们表示，一旦假日购物季结束，随着生产商逐步增加商品供应以满足旺盛需求，压力可能会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Scott Kimball, co-head of U.S. fixed income for BMO Global Asset Management, said his team bought Treasurys on Wednesday to take advantage of the higher yields. Inflation, he said, should still be viewed as a transitory phenomenon tied to the quirks of the pandemic economy. As economic stimulus wanes and “we get back to an economy that’s producing GDP based on its own real output potential…inflation will fall back in line,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Global Asset Management 美国固定收益联席主管斯科特·金博尔 (Scott Kimball) 表示，他的团队周三购买了国债，以利用较高的收益率。他说，通货膨胀仍应被视为与疫情经济怪癖相关的短暂现象。他说，随着经济刺激措施的减弱，“我们又回到了一个根据自身实际产出潜力生产国内生产总值的经济体.通货膨胀将相应回落”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stocks remain near all-time highs, after a run that has taken the major U.S. indexes to 153 record closes this year, the most since 2017. Even on Wednesday, some investors were generally blasé about the inflation report.</p><p><blockquote>今年美国主要股指收盘价达到创纪录的 153 点，为 2017 年以来的最高纪录，股市仍接近历史高点。即使在周三，一些投资者对通胀报告普遍冷淡。</blockquote></p><p> Aaron Weitman, who runs New York-based hedge fund CastleKnight Management LP, which invests in both stocks and bonds, didn’t do much in reaction to the inflation data.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于纽约的对冲基金 CastleKnight Management LP 的负责人亚伦-惠特曼（Aaron Weitman）对通胀数据并没有太大反应。</blockquote></p><p> “I didn’t see it as surprising,” Mr. Weitman said. “We’ve been getting cautious about inflation and interest-rate risks for months.”</p><p><blockquote>“惠特曼先生说：”我认为这并不奇怪。“几个月来，我们一直对通胀和利率风险持谨慎态度”。</blockquote></p><p> The relaxed reaction in stocks suggested an optimism that corporate earnings will continue to grow as prices rise, and that interest rates over the next year or so won’t rise enough to crimp shares. Though widely held, it’s a view some have found perplexing.</p><p><blockquote>股市的放松反应表明，人们乐观地认为，随着物价上涨，企业盈利将继续增长，而未来一年左右的利率不会上升到压制股市的程度。虽然这种观点被广泛持有，但有些人对此感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market keeps whistling past the inflation and monetary tightening that is upon us,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.</p><p><blockquote>“布莱克利咨询集团（Bleakley Advisory Group）首席投资官彼得-布克瓦尔（Peter Boockvar）说：”股市不断吹响通货膨胀和即将到来的货币紧缩政策的哨声。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/broad-selloff-signals-inflation-fears-are-warming-11636585869?siteid=yhoof2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/broad-selloff-signals-inflation-fears-are-warming-11636585869?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118910262","content_text":"For months, there has been relatively little investor angst about rising prices. On Wednesday, there were signs that might be changing.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 240 points, or 0.7% while the technology-fueled Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 264 points, or 1.7%. In the government bond market, longer-term Treasury securities, which generally are most sensitive to inflation expectations, fell in price, as did short-term Treasurys, which tend to anticipate interest-rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest rise in a year. When bond prices fall, yields rise.\nWednesday’s price moves—following a Labor Department report showing the consumer price-indexrose at a 6.2% annual rate, its fastest pace since 1990—suggest that investors are preparing for both higher inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed over the next two years. But the declines weren’t dramatic, traders and analysts said, especially given that the inflation figures were higher than expected.\nLong-term bond prices have been resilient for weeks and may have been due for a pullback, they said, suggesting that Wednesday’s selling may not herald a sea change in a market whose strength has surprised many this year.\n“This is not a panic reaction,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group in Chicago. He said trading volume for long-term Treasurys was just a bit higher than on usual days. “It’s much too soon to assume the Fed will quicken the pace” of its expected moves to boost interest rates over the next year or so, Mr. Brien said.\nAway from Wall Street, angst is growing about rising prices. As the Christmas season approaches, expectations are growing that consumers will feel more inflation pressures, among the reasons polls show President Biden’s popularity dropping.\n“Just about everything is going to cost consumers more this holiday season,” Wells Fargo analysts said Wednesday.\nThe Biden administration is vowing to address rising inflation, aware that voters are becoming increasingly worried about how higher prices may eat into their paychecks. After the inflation report was released Wednesday, the White House issued a statement from Mr. Biden saying, “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”\nSelling in the bond market initially focused on short-term U.S. Treasurys, which would be most directly affected if the Fed raises rates over the next few years, though it soon spread to longer-term securities, like the 10-year note and 30-year bond.\nSince about June, when Fed officials emphasized that their tolerance for inflation was limited, bond investors have been quick to sell short-term Treasurys in response to high inflation numbers. But enthusiasm for longer-term bonds, which usually react to long-term inflation expectations, has been fairly strong.\nHigh inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of their fixed-interest payments and can spur monetary authorities to push short-term interest rates higher. But many investors have viewed expected moves by the Fed to raise interest rates over the next two years as likely to reduce the risk of runaway inflation, making long-term bonds potentially attractive.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled Wednesday at 1.558%. That’s still well below its 2021 high of 1.749% set at the end of March and even its recent peak of 1.674% reached on Oct. 21, underscoring how investors have kept buying these bonds.\nFor now, investors still expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, but then drop to a level that is around the Fed’s 2% annual target, as bottlenecks in the economy ease and the central bank removes support for the economy. Investors acknowledged that Wednesday’s report showed inflation concerns can’t be dismissed, with prices rising across a broad range of categories, including those like housing costs that tend to be sticky.\nStill, many continued to argue that inflation will moderate starting next year, at the very least because next year’s prices will no longer be compared to last year’s deeply depressed levels. They said that pressures are likely to ease once the holiday shopping period is over and as producers gradually ramp up the supply of goods to meet red-hot demand.\nScott Kimball, co-head of U.S. fixed income for BMO Global Asset Management, said his team bought Treasurys on Wednesday to take advantage of the higher yields. Inflation, he said, should still be viewed as a transitory phenomenon tied to the quirks of the pandemic economy. As economic stimulus wanes and “we get back to an economy that’s producing GDP based on its own real output potential…inflation will fall back in line,” he said.\nStocks remain near all-time highs, after a run that has taken the major U.S. indexes to 153 record closes this year, the most since 2017. Even on Wednesday, some investors were generally blasé about the inflation report.\nAaron Weitman, who runs New York-based hedge fund CastleKnight Management LP, which invests in both stocks and bonds, didn’t do much in reaction to the inflation data.\n“I didn’t see it as surprising,” Mr. Weitman said. “We’ve been getting cautious about inflation and interest-rate risks for months.”\nThe relaxed reaction in stocks suggested an optimism that corporate earnings will continue to grow as prices rise, and that interest rates over the next year or so won’t rise enough to crimp shares. Though widely held, it’s a view some have found perplexing.\n“The stock market keeps whistling past the inflation and monetary tightening that is upon us,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/870649570"}
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