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2021-11-16

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Morgan Stanley Says Steer Clear of U.S. Stocks and Bonds in 2022<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示将在 2022 年避开美国股票和债券</blockquote>

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Fundamentals are more attractive in Europe and Japan, where central bankers will be more patient and inflationary pressures are lower, according to the strategists in their annual investment outlook.<blockquote>这是摩根士丹利战略团队的建议，该团队认为，即使经济增长改善、通胀放缓，2022 年货币支持的减弱和高估值仍将拖累美国资产。策略师在其年度投资展望中表示，欧洲和日本的基本面更具吸引力，这两个国家的央行行长将更加耐心，通胀压力也较低。</blockquote> “We think that 2022 is really about ‘mid to late-cycle’ challenges: better growth squaring off against high valuations, tightening policy, rambunctious investor activity and inflation being higher than most investors are used to,” strategists led by Andrew Sheets wrote Sunday. “We see plenty of challenges, including downside to the S&amp;P 500 and U.S. 10-year yields being well above forwards.”<blockquote>“以安德鲁-希茨（Andrew Sheets）为首的策略师周日写道：”我们认为，2022 年确实面临着'中后期周期'的挑战：较好的增长与高估值、紧缩政策、激烈的投资者活动以及高于大多数投资者习惯的通胀形成了鲜明对比。“我们看到了许多挑战，包括标普500的下行空间和美国 10 年期国债收益率远高于远期收益率”。</blockquote> After a year dominated by relentless equity gains and a selloff in bonds, strategists have begun marketing their calls for 2022 with the threat of inflation looming largest in investors minds. Last week Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expected less impressive returns for risk assets as the economic cycle matures.<blockquote>在经历了以无情的股票上涨和债券抛售为主的一年后，策略师们已经开始营销 2022 年的评级，通胀威胁在投资者心中迫在眉睫。上周，高盛集团表示，随着经济周期的成熟，预计风险资产的回报将不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 finishing 2022 at 4,400 -- some 6% below current levels. Its strategists are penciling in 10-year yields rising to 2.10% by the end of next year on improving growth and higher real rates, up from 1.55% on Monday.<blockquote>摩根士丹利预计标普500 2022 年底将达到 4,400 辆，比当前水平低约 6%。其策略师预计，由于增长改善和实际利率上升，到明年年底 10 年期国债收益率将从周一的 1.55% 升至 2.10%。</blockquote> Inflation Situation<blockquote>通货膨胀情况</blockquote> Global inflation will peak this quarter and moderate over the coming 12 months thanks to easier year-on-year comparisons and reduced supply chain pressures, the U.S. bank’s strategists wrote. A ‘hotter and faster’ recovery will continue, powered by strength in consumer spending and capital investment, they said.<blockquote>美国银行的策略师写道，由于同比比较更容易，供应链压力减轻，全球通胀将在本季度达到峰值，并在未来 12 个月内趋于温和。他们表示，在消费者支出和资本投资的强劲推动下，“更热更快 ”的复苏将继续。</blockquote> Their muted market expectations come amid a wider debate at the bank over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Morgan Stanley economists predict the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates until 2023, in contrast with the more hawkish views of their own chief executive officer.<blockquote>他们的市场预期低迷之际，央行就美国货币政策前景展开了更广泛的辩论。摩根士丹利的经济学家预测，美联储要到2023年才会加息，这与他们自己的首席执行官更为鹰派的观点形成了鲜明对比。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Economists See 2023 Fed Hike, Differ With Gorman<blockquote>摩根士丹利经济学家预计 2023 年美联储加息，但不同意戈尔曼的观点</blockquote> Rate hike delays will eventually lead to dollar weakness after a period of strength at the beginning of next year, according to the note.<blockquote>报告称，加息延迟最终将导致美元在明年初经历一段强势时期后走弱。</blockquote> Outside of developed markets, Sheets’ team urged patience, suggesting investors wait until the greenback weakens before considering emerging market stocks and bonds. In currencies, they favor the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone and expect a largely stable yuan.<blockquote>在发达市场之外，Sheets 的团队敦促投资者保持耐心，建议投资者等到美元走弱后再考虑新兴市场股票和债券。在货币方面，他们青睐加元和挪威克朗，并预计人民币汇率基本稳定。</blockquote> On the commodity front, the bank prefers oil to gold and suggested metal prices face a challenging outlook.<blockquote>在大宗商品方面，该行更看好石油而不是黄金，并暗示金属价格面临严峻的前景。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Says Steer Clear of U.S. Stocks and Bonds in 2022<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示将在 2022 年避开美国股票和债券</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Says Steer Clear of U.S. Stocks and Bonds in 2022<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示将在 2022 年避开美国股票和债券</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-15 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Stay away from U.S. stocks and bonds next year, and seek out better returns in Europe and Japan.<blockquote>（彭博社）——明年远离美国股票和债券，并在欧洲和日本寻求更好的回报。</blockquote> That’s the advice of Morgan Stanley’s strategy team, which sees fading monetary support and high valuations holding back American assets in 2022, even as growth improves and inflation moderates. Fundamentals are more attractive in Europe and Japan, where central bankers will be more patient and inflationary pressures are lower, according to the strategists in their annual investment outlook.<blockquote>这是摩根士丹利战略团队的建议，该团队认为，即使经济增长改善、通胀放缓，2022 年货币支持的减弱和高估值仍将拖累美国资产。策略师在其年度投资展望中表示，欧洲和日本的基本面更具吸引力，这两个国家的央行行长将更加耐心，通胀压力也较低。</blockquote> “We think that 2022 is really about ‘mid to late-cycle’ challenges: better growth squaring off against high valuations, tightening policy, rambunctious investor activity and inflation being higher than most investors are used to,” strategists led by Andrew Sheets wrote Sunday. “We see plenty of challenges, including downside to the S&amp;P 500 and U.S. 10-year yields being well above forwards.”<blockquote>“以安德鲁-希茨（Andrew Sheets）为首的策略师周日写道：”我们认为，2022 年确实面临着'中后期周期'的挑战：较好的增长与高估值、紧缩政策、激烈的投资者活动以及高于大多数投资者习惯的通胀形成了鲜明对比。“我们看到了许多挑战，包括标普500的下行空间和美国 10 年期国债收益率远高于远期收益率”。</blockquote> After a year dominated by relentless equity gains and a selloff in bonds, strategists have begun marketing their calls for 2022 with the threat of inflation looming largest in investors minds. Last week Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expected less impressive returns for risk assets as the economic cycle matures.<blockquote>在经历了以无情的股票上涨和债券抛售为主的一年后，策略师们已经开始营销 2022 年的评级，通胀威胁在投资者心中迫在眉睫。上周，高盛集团表示，随着经济周期的成熟，预计风险资产的回报将不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 finishing 2022 at 4,400 -- some 6% below current levels. Its strategists are penciling in 10-year yields rising to 2.10% by the end of next year on improving growth and higher real rates, up from 1.55% on Monday.<blockquote>摩根士丹利预计标普500 2022 年底将达到 4,400 辆，比当前水平低约 6%。其策略师预计，由于增长改善和实际利率上升，到明年年底 10 年期国债收益率将从周一的 1.55% 升至 2.10%。</blockquote> Inflation Situation<blockquote>通货膨胀情况</blockquote> Global inflation will peak this quarter and moderate over the coming 12 months thanks to easier year-on-year comparisons and reduced supply chain pressures, the U.S. bank’s strategists wrote. A ‘hotter and faster’ recovery will continue, powered by strength in consumer spending and capital investment, they said.<blockquote>美国银行的策略师写道，由于同比比较更容易，供应链压力减轻，全球通胀将在本季度达到峰值，并在未来 12 个月内趋于温和。他们表示，在消费者支出和资本投资的强劲推动下，“更热更快 ”的复苏将继续。</blockquote> Their muted market expectations come amid a wider debate at the bank over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Morgan Stanley economists predict the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates until 2023, in contrast with the more hawkish views of their own chief executive officer.<blockquote>他们的市场预期低迷之际，央行就美国货币政策前景展开了更广泛的辩论。摩根士丹利的经济学家预测，美联储要到2023年才会加息，这与他们自己的首席执行官更为鹰派的观点形成了鲜明对比。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Economists See 2023 Fed Hike, Differ With Gorman<blockquote>摩根士丹利经济学家预计 2023 年美联储加息，但不同意戈尔曼的观点</blockquote> Rate hike delays will eventually lead to dollar weakness after a period of strength at the beginning of next year, according to the note.<blockquote>报告称，加息延迟最终将导致美元在明年初经历一段强势时期后走弱。</blockquote> Outside of developed markets, Sheets’ team urged patience, suggesting investors wait until the greenback weakens before considering emerging market stocks and bonds. In currencies, they favor the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone and expect a largely stable yuan.<blockquote>在发达市场之外，Sheets 的团队敦促投资者保持耐心，建议投资者等到美元走弱后再考虑新兴市场股票和债券。在货币方面，他们青睐加元和挪威克朗，并预计人民币汇率基本稳定。</blockquote> On the commodity front, the bank prefers oil to gold and suggested metal prices face a challenging outlook.<blockquote>在大宗商品方面，该行更看好石油而不是黄金，并暗示金属价格面临严峻的前景。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-says-steer-clear-044207580.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-says-steer-clear-044207580.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199249819","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Stay away from U.S. stocks and bonds next year, and seek out better returns in Europe and Japan.\nThat’s the advice of Morgan Stanley’s strategy team, which sees fading monetary support and high valuations holding back American assets in 2022, even as growth improves and inflation moderates. Fundamentals are more attractive in Europe and Japan, where central bankers will be more patient and inflationary pressures are lower, according to the strategists in their annual investment outlook.\n“We think that 2022 is really about ‘mid to late-cycle’ challenges: better growth squaring off against high valuations, tightening policy, rambunctious investor activity and inflation being higher than most investors are used to,” strategists led by Andrew Sheets wrote Sunday. “We see plenty of challenges, including downside to the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-year yields being well above forwards.”\nAfter a year dominated by relentless equity gains and a selloff in bonds, strategists have begun marketing their calls for 2022 with the threat of inflation looming largest in investors minds. Last week Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expected less impressive returns for risk assets as the economic cycle matures.\nMorgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 finishing 2022 at 4,400 -- some 6% below current levels. Its strategists are penciling in 10-year yields rising to 2.10% by the end of next year on improving growth and higher real rates, up from 1.55% on Monday.\nInflation Situation\nGlobal inflation will peak this quarter and moderate over the coming 12 months thanks to easier year-on-year comparisons and reduced supply chain pressures, the U.S. bank’s strategists wrote. A ‘hotter and faster’ recovery will continue, powered by strength in consumer spending and capital investment, they said.\nTheir muted market expectations come amid a wider debate at the bank over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Morgan Stanley economists predict the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates until 2023, in contrast with the more hawkish views of their own chief executive officer.\nMorgan Stanley Economists See 2023 Fed Hike, Differ With Gorman\nRate hike delays will eventually lead to dollar weakness after a period of strength at the beginning of next year, according to the note.\nOutside of developed markets, Sheets’ team urged patience, suggesting investors wait until the greenback weakens before considering emerging market stocks and bonds. In currencies, they favor the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone and expect a largely stable yuan.\nOn the commodity front, the bank prefers oil to gold and suggested metal prices face a challenging outlook.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3368,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/871173091"}