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The S&P 500 PEG Ratio Is Low: Why It's A Bearish Sign<blockquote>标普500 PEG比率较低：为什么这是看跌信号</blockquote>

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In theory, the lower the PEG, the more value a stock holds.<blockquote>市盈率与增长率（PEG）是一个基本的估值指标，用于评估股票相对于其盈利和预期盈利增长率的价格。理论上，挂钩越低，股票的价值就越大。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 currently has a forward PEG of just 1.11, 21% below its historical average. But Bank of America analyst Savita Subramanian said Monday that most fundamental valuation metrics suggest the stock market is overvalued, and the low PEG ratio may actually be just one more sign of irrational market exuberance.<blockquote>标普500目前的远期挂钩率仅为1.11，比历史平均水平低21%。但美国银行分析师Savita Subramanian周一表示，大多数基本面估值指标表明股市被高估，低PEG比率实际上可能只是市场非理性繁荣的又一个迹象。</blockquote> The Numbers:Subramanian said the S&amp;P 500 is statistically expensive based on 15 of 20 fundamental metrics he tracks, including a Shiller PE that’s 122.9% above historical norms and an S&amp;P 500 Market Cap/GDP ratio that’s 170.3% above historical averages.<blockquote>数字：Subramanian表示，根据他跟踪的20个基本指标中的15个，标普500在统计上是昂贵的，包括比历史正常水平高出122.9%的席勒市盈率和比历史平均水平高出170.3%的标普500市值/GDP比率。</blockquote> In fact, Subramanian said the only reason the S&amp;P 500’s PEG is so low is because analysts have such high expectations for future earnings growth.<blockquote>事实上，Subramanian表示，标普500联系汇率如此之低的唯一原因是分析师对未来盈利增长抱有如此高的预期。</blockquote> “The attractive P/E to [long-term growth] ratio, or ‘PEG ratio,’ of the S&amp;P 500 is due to lofty growth expectations, not low valuations,” he said.<blockquote>“标普500具有吸引力的市盈率与[长期增长]比率或‘PEG比率’是由于高增长预期，而不是低估值，”他表示。</blockquote> High Expectations:Analysts are currently projecting long-term S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 19%, even higher than peak dot-com bubble growth expectations. Like many economic and market sentiment measures, Subramanian said long-term growth expectations have historically been a better contrary indicator than positive indicator. In fact, of the 87 companies that had long-term earnings growth expectations back in 2000, only 15 actually delivered at least 20% LTG over the next five years, Subramanian said.<blockquote>高期望：分析师目前预计标普500长期盈利增长19%，甚至高于互联网泡沫峰值增长预期。与许多经济和市场情绪指标一样，Subramanian表示，长期增长预期历来是比积极指标更好的相反指标。Subramanian表示，事实上，在2000年有长期盈利增长预期的87家公司中，只有15家实际上在未来五年内实现了至少20%的LTG。</blockquote> LTG projections have historically had a negative 40% correlation to 12-month forward S&amp;P 500 returns. If that correlation were to hold over the next 12 months, it would suggest about 20% downside for theSPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) by November 2022.<blockquote>从历史上看，LTG预测与12个月远期标普500回报呈40%的负相关性。如果这种相关性在未来12个月内保持不变，这将意味着约20%的下行空间SPDR标普500 ETF信托（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）到2022年11月。</blockquote> Benzinga’s Take:Predicting market moves is far more complicated than analyzing one or even a handful of metrics, such as LTG projections or PEG. However, if 75% of Bank of America’s valuation metrics currently suggest stock valuations are historically high, investors should be prepared for the possibility of a steep correction if the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates in 2022.<blockquote>Benzinga的看法：预测市场走势比分析一个甚至几个指标（例如LTG预测或PEG）要复杂得多。然而，如果目前美国银行75%的估值指标表明股票估值处于历史高位，投资者应该做好准备，如果美联储在2022年开始加息，可能会出现大幅回调。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 PEG Ratio Is Low: Why It's A Bearish Sign<blockquote>标普500 PEG比率较低：为什么这是看跌信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 PEG Ratio Is Low: Why It's A Bearish Sign<blockquote>标普500 PEG比率较低：为什么这是看跌信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBenzinga2021-11-16 15:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is a fundamental valuation metric that assesses a stock’s price relative to its earnings and expected earnings growth rate. In theory, the lower the PEG, the more value a stock holds.<blockquote>市盈率与增长率（PEG）是一个基本的估值指标，用于评估股票相对于其盈利和预期盈利增长率的价格。理论上，挂钩越低，股票的价值就越大。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 currently has a forward PEG of just 1.11, 21% below its historical average. But Bank of America analyst Savita Subramanian said Monday that most fundamental valuation metrics suggest the stock market is overvalued, and the low PEG ratio may actually be just one more sign of irrational market exuberance.<blockquote>标普500目前的远期挂钩率仅为1.11，比历史平均水平低21%。但美国银行分析师Savita Subramanian周一表示，大多数基本面估值指标表明股市被高估，低PEG比率实际上可能只是市场非理性繁荣的又一个迹象。</blockquote> The Numbers:Subramanian said the S&amp;P 500 is statistically expensive based on 15 of 20 fundamental metrics he tracks, including a Shiller PE that’s 122.9% above historical norms and an S&amp;P 500 Market Cap/GDP ratio that’s 170.3% above historical averages.<blockquote>数字：Subramanian表示，根据他跟踪的20个基本指标中的15个，标普500在统计上是昂贵的，包括比历史正常水平高出122.9%的席勒市盈率和比历史平均水平高出170.3%的标普500市值/GDP比率。</blockquote> In fact, Subramanian said the only reason the S&amp;P 500’s PEG is so low is because analysts have such high expectations for future earnings growth.<blockquote>事实上，Subramanian表示，标普500联系汇率如此之低的唯一原因是分析师对未来盈利增长抱有如此高的预期。</blockquote> “The attractive P/E to [long-term growth] ratio, or ‘PEG ratio,’ of the S&amp;P 500 is due to lofty growth expectations, not low valuations,” he said.<blockquote>“标普500具有吸引力的市盈率与[长期增长]比率或‘PEG比率’是由于高增长预期，而不是低估值，”他表示。</blockquote> High Expectations:Analysts are currently projecting long-term S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 19%, even higher than peak dot-com bubble growth expectations. Like many economic and market sentiment measures, Subramanian said long-term growth expectations have historically been a better contrary indicator than positive indicator. In fact, of the 87 companies that had long-term earnings growth expectations back in 2000, only 15 actually delivered at least 20% LTG over the next five years, Subramanian said.<blockquote>高期望：分析师目前预计标普500长期盈利增长19%，甚至高于互联网泡沫峰值增长预期。与许多经济和市场情绪指标一样，Subramanian表示，长期增长预期历来是比积极指标更好的相反指标。Subramanian表示，事实上，在2000年有长期盈利增长预期的87家公司中，只有15家实际上在未来五年内实现了至少20%的LTG。</blockquote> LTG projections have historically had a negative 40% correlation to 12-month forward S&amp;P 500 returns. If that correlation were to hold over the next 12 months, it would suggest about 20% downside for theSPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) by November 2022.<blockquote>从历史上看，LTG预测与12个月远期标普500回报呈40%的负相关性。如果这种相关性在未来12个月内保持不变，这将意味着约20%的下行空间SPDR标普500 ETF信托（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）到2022年11月。</blockquote> Benzinga’s Take:Predicting market moves is far more complicated than analyzing one or even a handful of metrics, such as LTG projections or PEG. However, if 75% of Bank of America’s valuation metrics currently suggest stock valuations are historically high, investors should be prepared for the possibility of a steep correction if the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates in 2022.<blockquote>Benzinga的看法：预测市场走势比分析一个甚至几个指标（例如LTG预测或PEG）要复杂得多。然而，如果目前美国银行75%的估值指标表明股票估值处于历史高位，投资者应该做好准备，如果美联储在2022年开始加息，可能会出现大幅回调。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-peg-ratio-low-215508667.html\">Benzinga</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-peg-ratio-low-215508667.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185802687","content_text":"The price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is a fundamental valuation metric that assesses a stock’s price relative to its earnings and expected earnings growth rate. In theory, the lower the PEG, the more value a stock holds.\nThe S&P 500 currently has a forward PEG of just 1.11, 21% below its historical average. But Bank of America analyst Savita Subramanian said Monday that most fundamental valuation metrics suggest the stock market is overvalued, and the low PEG ratio may actually be just one more sign of irrational market exuberance.\nThe Numbers:Subramanian said the S&P 500 is statistically expensive based on 15 of 20 fundamental metrics he tracks, including a Shiller PE that’s 122.9% above historical norms and an S&P 500 Market Cap/GDP ratio that’s 170.3% above historical averages.\nIn fact, Subramanian said the only reason the S&P 500’s PEG is so low is because analysts have such high expectations for future earnings growth.\n“The attractive P/E to [long-term growth] ratio, or ‘PEG ratio,’ of the S&P 500 is due to lofty growth expectations, not low valuations,” he said.\nHigh Expectations:Analysts are currently projecting long-term S&P 500 earnings growth of 19%, even higher than peak dot-com bubble growth expectations. Like many economic and market sentiment measures, Subramanian said long-term growth expectations have historically been a better contrary indicator than positive indicator. In fact, of the 87 companies that had long-term earnings growth expectations back in 2000, only 15 actually delivered at least 20% LTG over the next five years, Subramanian said.\nLTG projections have historically had a negative 40% correlation to 12-month forward S&P 500 returns. If that correlation were to hold over the next 12 months, it would suggest about 20% downside for theSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) by November 2022.\nBenzinga’s Take:Predicting market moves is far more complicated than analyzing one or even a handful of metrics, such as LTG projections or PEG. However, if 75% of Bank of America’s valuation metrics currently suggest stock valuations are historically high, investors should be prepared for the possibility of a steep correction if the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates in 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4098,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/871623706"}