investforget
2021-11-22
Could bottom out
PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>
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(PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.</p><p><blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了 PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们 2025 年 425 美元的目标价使得 266 美元的购买每年的复合回报率为 10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们根据其与盈利的关系预测的市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司极其一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不需要平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年 17.9% 的稳定水平，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的 13.55%。唯一的两个例外是 2014 年的一次为负，2020 年的一次为正，利润率为 19.6%。</blockquote></p><p> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:</p><p><blockquote>随着 2021 年的进展，PayPal 大幅下降，一路跌至 200 美元。按照这个价格，2025 年 425 美元的目标将为您带来 20.1% 的复合年回报率。对于这次崩溃，我能想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote></p><p> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.</p><p><blockquote>a) 价格领先于时代，2020 年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预测。最终，依赖于尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长了 18%，投资者希望至少获得 18% 的投资回报。</blockquote></p><p> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>b) 查看2021年前三个季度的财务报告后，根据公司业绩，存在盈利增长大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote></p><p> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>c) 根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote></p><p> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果这个逻辑足够令人信服，你应该现在就购买，并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点关注另外两种情况，我们需要考虑业务本身是否真的遇到了麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零二一年财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前对 PayPal 的分析是基于截至 2020 年的 GAAP 数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三个季度的业绩，看看结果是否令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，一个季度一个季度看起来都不太好，但这在 PayPal 的季节性历史上并不罕见。如果您查看下图，您可以看到收入在第四季度增长最快，在第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需比第三季度增长66.5亿美元不到8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年看起来将再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021 年前 3 个季度的盈利与 2020 年一样，远高于之前收入 13.5% 的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年是19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年是这方面的异常现象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。2021 年的数字是基于前三个季度的估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>看看这些数字，唯一让投资者担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到 2021 年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和盈利增长率，以及 1 年增长率或 2 年 CAGR。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).</p><p><blockquote>这提供了可能问题所在的线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到 2020 年第三季度是一个异常好的季度，那么 PayPal 似乎因为 2020 年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很棒，尤其是在盈利方面（2019 年第三季度表现异常糟糕也是事实，但一个论点和另一个论点一样有效）。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下 2020 年净利润较低。下图包含与之前相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少，以适应更多增长的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。*二零一四年的数字已被删除，二零二零年的净收入数字已被减少，以说明上述要点。2021 年的数字是基于前三个季度的估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.</p><p><blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。在对一家公司进行估值时，当考虑到短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑它们是在惩罚糟糕的业绩，还是实际上在惩罚良好的业绩。综合考虑，在观察到的 PayPal 财务表现中，似乎没有合理的理由让您认为前景比 9 个月前更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is market growth a concern?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场增长令人担忧吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，唯一可能的解释是，事实上，有外部因素将阻止PayPal以以前认为的速度扩张。伯恩斯坦最近下调了该股评级，声称“市场份额增长令人担忧”。自 ATH 达到 300 美元以来，该股已下跌超过 30%，这使得 PayPal 的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote></p><p> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.</p><p><blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新奇的概念，在过去的几年里，我们已经看到成百上千家公司推出了类似版本的whatPayPal产品。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但 PayPal 仍然是山中之王。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: datanyze.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：datanyze.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal 拥有超过 50% 的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的 Braintree 也归 PayPal 所有。然而，PayPal 面临的问题并非来自数百家初创公司和新 IPO 公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大型企业。</blockquote></p><p> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.</p><p><blockquote>这包括 AmazonPay、Shopify Inc. 的 (SHOP) ShopPay，甚至 Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务有一个优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify 激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌则具有深入嵌入我们所做的许多事情的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，例如，Shopify和亚马逊有一个很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花在哪里，并可以利用这一点为自己谋利。然而，支付系统不仅限于电子商务。贝宝在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。贝宝可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Two more reasons I will hold on to</b><b>PayPal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有两个理由我会坚持</b><b>PayPal</b></blockquote></p><p> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析继续支持 PayPal 有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面， PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且历史悠久的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote></p><p> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.</p><p><blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好 PayPal；Venmo 及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote></p><p> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>从 Venmo 开始，这可能是我认为 PayPal 仍然拥有大量价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。2020 年，Venmo 处理了超过 1590 亿美元的交易，根据最新的盈利看涨期权，该应用程序有望在 2021 年实现 9 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.</p><p><blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo 都只是触及了它所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将 Venmo 与 Square Inc. (SQ) 的 CashApp 进行比较，我们可以看到 Venmo 在货币化方面还有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户创造了54美元，而Venmo从每个活跃用户那里只赚了12美元。交易成本略有不同，但大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.</p><p><blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo 可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被设想为一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到了企业中。亚马逊 (AMZN) 将从 2022 年开始接受 Venmo 支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 6500 万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是 PayPal 可以利用的优势向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.</p><p><blockquote>我将继续持有 PayPal 的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表以及由此带来的所有增长机会。 PayPal 拥有 132.9 亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最知名的同行要强劲得多。现在是 PayPal 充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，尤其是在国际上，我们在上次投资者演讲中已经体验到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.</p><p><blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布正在收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来找出用户的信用度，并提供分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与 Shopify 争论的那样， PayPal 现在可以利用 Paidy 将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我非常兴奋地看到 PayPal 还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.</p><p><blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为 PayPal 股票没有继续贬值的实质性理由。外部因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍在实现中长期增长目标。 PayPal 以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而如今这很难实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-22 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>South_agency/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自 ATH 以来已下跌超过 30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争虽然激烈，但却是可控的。</li><li>Venmo 和 PayPal 未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>South_agency/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.</p><p><blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了 PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们 2025 年 425 美元的目标价使得 266 美元的购买每年的复合回报率为 10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们根据其与盈利的关系预测的市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司极其一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不需要平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年 17.9% 的稳定水平，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的 13.55%。唯一的两个例外是 2014 年的一次为负，2020 年的一次为正，利润率为 19.6%。</blockquote></p><p> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:</p><p><blockquote>随着 2021 年的进展，PayPal 大幅下降，一路跌至 200 美元。按照这个价格，2025 年 425 美元的目标将为您带来 20.1% 的复合年回报率。对于这次崩溃，我能想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote></p><p> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.</p><p><blockquote>a) 价格领先于时代，2020 年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预测。最终，依赖于尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长了 18%，投资者希望至少获得 18% 的投资回报。</blockquote></p><p> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>b) 查看2021年前三个季度的财务报告后，根据公司业绩，存在盈利增长大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote></p><p> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>c) 根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote></p><p> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果这个逻辑足够令人信服，你应该现在就购买，并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点关注另外两种情况，我们需要考虑业务本身是否真的遇到了麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零二一年财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前对 PayPal 的分析是基于截至 2020 年的 GAAP 数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三个季度的业绩，看看结果是否令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，一个季度一个季度看起来都不太好，但这在 PayPal 的季节性历史上并不罕见。如果您查看下图，您可以看到收入在第四季度增长最快，在第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需比第三季度增长66.5亿美元不到8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年看起来将再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021 年前 3 个季度的盈利与 2020 年一样，远高于之前收入 13.5% 的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年是19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年是这方面的异常现象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。2021 年的数字是基于前三个季度的估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>看看这些数字，唯一让投资者担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到 2021 年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和盈利增长率，以及 1 年增长率或 2 年 CAGR。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).</p><p><blockquote>这提供了可能问题所在的线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到 2020 年第三季度是一个异常好的季度，那么 PayPal 似乎因为 2020 年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很棒，尤其是在盈利方面（2019 年第三季度表现异常糟糕也是事实，但一个论点和另一个论点一样有效）。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下 2020 年净利润较低。下图包含与之前相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少，以适应更多增长的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的作品。数百万美元的物品。*二零一四年的数字已被删除，二零二零年的净收入数字已被减少，以说明上述要点。2021 年的数字是基于前三个季度的估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.</p><p><blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。在对一家公司进行估值时，当考虑到短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑它们是在惩罚糟糕的业绩，还是实际上在惩罚良好的业绩。综合考虑，在观察到的 PayPal 财务表现中，似乎没有合理的理由让您认为前景比 9 个月前更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is market growth a concern?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场增长令人担忧吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，唯一可能的解释是，事实上，有外部因素将阻止PayPal以以前认为的速度扩张。伯恩斯坦最近下调了该股评级，声称“市场份额增长令人担忧”。自 ATH 达到 300 美元以来，该股已下跌超过 30%，这使得 PayPal 的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote></p><p> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.</p><p><blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新奇的概念，在过去的几年里，我们已经看到成百上千家公司推出了类似版本的whatPayPal产品。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但 PayPal 仍然是山中之王。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: datanyze.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：datanyze.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal 拥有超过 50% 的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的 Braintree 也归 PayPal 所有。然而，PayPal 面临的问题并非来自数百家初创公司和新 IPO 公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大型企业。</blockquote></p><p> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.</p><p><blockquote>这包括 AmazonPay、Shopify Inc. 的 (SHOP) ShopPay，甚至 Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务有一个优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify 激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌则具有深入嵌入我们所做的许多事情的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，例如，Shopify和亚马逊有一个很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花在哪里，并可以利用这一点为自己谋利。然而，支付系统不仅限于电子商务。贝宝在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。贝宝可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Two more reasons I will hold on to</b><b>PayPal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有两个理由我会坚持</b><b>PayPal</b></blockquote></p><p> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析继续支持 PayPal 有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面， PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且历史悠久的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote></p><p> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.</p><p><blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好 PayPal；Venmo 及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote></p><p> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>从 Venmo 开始，这可能是我认为 PayPal 仍然拥有大量价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。2020 年，Venmo 处理了超过 1590 亿美元的交易，根据最新的盈利看涨期权，该应用程序有望在 2021 年实现 9 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.</p><p><blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo 都只是触及了它所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将 Venmo 与 Square Inc. (SQ) 的 CashApp 进行比较，我们可以看到 Venmo 在货币化方面还有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户创造了54美元，而Venmo从每个活跃用户那里只赚了12美元。交易成本略有不同，但大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.</p><p><blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo 可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被设想为一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到了企业中。亚马逊 (AMZN) 将从 2022 年开始接受 Venmo 支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 6500 万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是 PayPal 可以利用的优势向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.</p><p><blockquote>我将继续持有 PayPal 的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表以及由此带来的所有增长机会。 PayPal 拥有 132.9 亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最知名的同行要强劲得多。现在是 PayPal 充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，尤其是在国际上，我们在上次投资者演讲中已经体验到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.</p><p><blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布正在收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来找出用户的信用度，并提供分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与 Shopify 争论的那样， PayPal 现在可以利用 Paidy 将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我非常兴奋地看到 PayPal 还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.</p><p><blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为 PayPal 股票没有继续贬值的实质性理由。外部因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍在实现中长期增长目标。 PayPal 以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而如今这很难实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3751,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872433967"}
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