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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872507153,"tweetId":"872507153","gmtCreate":1637544111316,"gmtModify":1637544111433,"author":{"id":3582600581738317,"idStr":"3582600581738317","authorId":3582600581738317,"authorIdStr":"3582600581738317","name":"andrewshum","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4a9224853eb7bf5293363b761f6ba1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like</body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872507153","repostId":1148648835,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148648835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637541484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148648835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shortages Are Roiling Tech Stocks. Here’s 1 That Looks Particularly Cheap.<blockquote>短缺正在扰乱科技股。这里有一个看起来特别便宜的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148648835","media":"Barrons","summary":"As supply-chain issues roil the tech sector, no company underscores the issue more than Cisco System","content":"As supply-chain issues roil the tech sector, no company underscores the issue more than&nbsp;Cisco Systems.The stock fell more than 6% on Thursday after the company reported financial results that were dented by a panoply of component delays. And yet, it’s hard to find an enterprise tech company with a more appealing long-term outlook.<blockquote>随着供应链问题扰乱科技行业，没有哪家公司比思科系统公司更强调这个问题。周四，该公司公布的财务业绩因一系列零部件延误而受到影响，该股股价下跌超过6%。然而，很难找到一家长期前景更具吸引力的企业科技公司。</blockquote> While there will be continued near-term noise for Cisco (ticker: CSCO), investors should hop aboard now—the selloff this past week has made a cheap stock even cheaper.<blockquote>尽管思科（股票代码：CSCO）近期将持续存在噪音，但投资者现在应该买入——过去一周的抛售使廉价股票变得更加便宜。</blockquote> Cisco is seeing increased demand across its customer base: Cloud computing vendors are ramping up capital spending to meet soaring demand, telecom companies are rolling out their 5G networks around the world, and enterprise information-technology firms are accelerating spending as the pandemic fades.<blockquote>思科看到其客户群的需求不断增加：云计算供应商正在增加资本支出以满足飙升的需求，电信公司正在全球推出5G网络，随着疫情的消退，企业信息技术公司正在加速支出。</blockquote> In its fiscal first quarter ended on Oct. 30, Cisco saw 33% order growth, accelerating from 31% in the July quarter, with a whopping 200% growth in demand from “webscale” cloud providers and a 60% increase from telcos. Cisco said it exited the October quarter with the highest backlog in its history.<blockquote>在截至10月30日的第一财季，思科的订单增长了33%，高于7月份季度的31%，其中“webscale”云提供商的需求增长了200%，电信公司的需求增长了60%。思科表示，10月份季度的积压订单数量创下历史最高水平。</blockquote> Investors were too focused on the supply-chain issues to notice. While revenue of $12.9 billion was up 8% from the total a year earlier, it was toward the low end of the company’s guidance range of 7.5% to 9.5% and about $100 million shy of Wall Street estimates. The company’s revenue outlook for the January quarter calls for growth of 4.5% to 6.5%. At the midpoint, that implies revenue of $12.6 billion, about $300 million short of the old Wall Street consensus. Cisco is selling everything it can, but demand has dramatically outstripped its ability to meet customer needs.<blockquote>投资者过于关注供应链问题而没有注意到。虽然129亿美元的收入比去年同期增长了8%，但接近该公司7.5%至9.5%指导范围的低端，比华尔街的预期低约1亿美元。该公司对评级1月份季度的收入预期为增长4.5%至6.5%。按中点计算，这意味着收入为126亿美元，比华尔街旧共识少约3亿美元。思科正在销售它能销售的一切，但需求已经大大超过了它满足客户需求的能力。</blockquote> Two months ago, I wrote a bullish column about Cisco, ahead of its first meeting with analysts in four years. I noted that July-quarter results had been better than expected, due to some of the factors noted above, including strong demand from cloud vendors.<blockquote>两个月前，在思科四年来首次与分析师会面之前，我写了一篇关于思科的乐观专栏。我注意到，由于上述一些因素，包括云供应商的强劲需求，7月份季度的业绩好于预期。</blockquote> At the much-anticipated analyst meeting, Cisco said it expected annual profit and revenue growth of 5% to 7% through 2025, driven by an expanding portfolio of subscription-based businesses. And this past week, Cisco repeated its projection for growth in that same range for the July 2022 fiscal year, suggesting acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year.<blockquote>在备受期待的分析师会议上，思科表示，在不断扩大的订阅业务组合的推动下，预计到2025年，年利润和收入将增长5%至7%。上周，思科重申了2022年7月财年在同一范围内的增长预测，表明本财年下半年将加速增长。</blockquote> But right now, supply-chain issues are creating multiple problems for the company. For one thing, Cisco can’t get enough semiconductors, power supplies, and other key components to fulfill its needs. Manufacturing capacity is also an issue for Cisco, which doesn’t do any in-house manufacturing.<blockquote>但目前，供应链问题给该公司带来了多重问题。一方面，思科无法获得足够的半导体、电源和其他关键组件来满足其需求。对于思科来说，制造能力也是一个问题，因为它不进行任何内部制造。</blockquote> Cisco is providing financial support to contract manufacturing partners to expand capacity, and it’s adding more suppliers to address a severe shortage of finished goods, but the larger problem remains.<blockquote>思科正在向合同制造合作伙伴提供财务支持以扩大产能，并增加更多供应商以解决成品严重短缺的问题，但更大的问题仍然存在。</blockquote> Cisco Chief Financial Officer Scott Herren says the company is “working night and day” to resolve the component shortages.<blockquote>思科首席财务官斯科特·赫伦表示，该公司正在“夜以继日地工作”来解决组件短缺问题。</blockquote> That’s adding new expenses in the short term. To get parts faster, Cisco is paying surcharges for expedited delivery of some components. Herren says that air, ocean, and trucking shipping routes all remain “snarled.”<blockquote>这在短期内会增加新的开支。为了更快地获得零件，思科为一些组件的加急交付支付附加费。赫伦说，空运、海运和卡车运输路线仍然“混乱”。</blockquote> Cisco has raised prices on many products to offset the higher costs, but it will take time for the increases to flow through to the income statement, and pressure on margins will remain for at least the next few quarters.<blockquote>思科已经提高了许多产品的价格，以抵消更高的成本，但价格上涨需要时间才能反映到损益表中，至少在未来几个季度，利润率面临的压力仍将存在。</blockquote> J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote this past week that Cisco’s latest results offer “proof to the strong demand environment.” He concedes that supply constraints have worsened since the company reported July-quarter results, but he views the headwinds as transient, with the company’s accelerating orders “more reflective of the underlying pent-up demand for network and IT infrastructure upgrades.”<blockquote>摩根大通分析师萨米克·查特吉(Samik Chatterjee)上周写道，思科的最新业绩“证明了强劲的需求环境”。他承认，自该公司公布7月份季度业绩以来，供应限制已经恶化，但他认为不利因素是短暂的，该公司订单的加速“更多地反映了对网络和IT基础设施升级的潜在被压抑的需求”。</blockquote> Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Cisco stock and a price target of $70, some 30% above a recent close of $53.63.<blockquote>Chatterjee对思科股票给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为70美元，较近期收盘价53.63美元高出约30%。</blockquote> Cisco is hardly the only tech company dealing with shortages. As I wrote last month, supply-chain woes have hurt recent quarterly results at a variety of hardware companies, including&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL), which said the issue is going to be even worse in the December quarter.<blockquote>思科并不是唯一一家面临短缺的科技公司。正如我上个月所写，供应链困境损害了多家硬件公司最近的季度业绩，其中包括苹果(AAPL)，该公司表示，这个问题在12月季度将会更加严重。</blockquote> Supply-chain problems will be a major topic of conversation in coming earnings calls from PC makers&nbsp;Dell Technologies&nbsp;(DELL) and&nbsp;HP Inc.&nbsp;(HPQ). They are both scheduled to report results after the close of trading on Tuesday.<blockquote>供应链问题将成为个人电脑制造商戴尔科技(DELL)和惠普公司(HPQ)即将举行的财报评级上讨论的主要话题。他们都计划在周二收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote> The key question for investors in hardware stocks is whether orders are being delayed—or destroyed. For some consumer goods, shortages during the holiday shopping season could result in gift-givers simply buying something else—your loved ones might have to settle for a sweater over a laptop. But when it comes to IT infrastructure, Cisco’s rivals face the same challenges; everyone is supply-constrained. No one is better-positioned.<blockquote>硬件股投资者面临的关键问题是订单是否被延迟或破坏。对于一些消费品来说，假日购物季的短缺可能会导致送礼者简单地购买其他东西——您所爱的人可能不得不满足于购买毛衣而不是笔记本电脑。但在IT基础设施方面，思科的竞争对手也面临着同样的挑战；每个人都是供应受限的。没有人处于更好的位置。</blockquote> Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told me that he sees no signs of lost orders so far. “At some point, you lose something to someone who can deliver faster,” he said, while quickly adding that “we are getting our share the other way, as well.”<blockquote>思科首席执行官查克·罗宾斯告诉我，到目前为止，他没有看到订单丢失的迹象。“在某些时候，你会失去一些东西给能够更快交付的人，”他说，同时很快补充道，“我们也通过另一种方式获得了我们的份额。”</blockquote> Robbins noted that some competitors have deferred shipments to existing customers in order to supply new ones. But he also said that Cisco’s cancellation rates are running below historic norms. In short, most of Cisco’s customers will simply wait it out. Investors should do the same.<blockquote>罗宾斯指出，一些竞争对手推迟了向现有客户发货，以便供应新客户。但他也表示，思科的取消率低于历史正常水平。简而言之，思科的大多数客户只会等待。投资者也应该这样做。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shortages Are Roiling Tech Stocks. Here’s 1 That Looks Particularly Cheap.<blockquote>短缺正在扰乱科技股。这里有一个看起来特别便宜的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShortages Are Roiling Tech Stocks. Here’s 1 That Looks Particularly Cheap.<blockquote>短缺正在扰乱科技股。这里有一个看起来特别便宜的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-11-22 08:38\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs supply-chain issues roil the tech sector, no company underscores the issue more than&nbsp;Cisco Systems.The stock fell more than 6% on Thursday after the company reported financial results that were dented by a panoply of component delays. And yet, it’s hard to find an enterprise tech company with a more appealing long-term outlook.<blockquote>随着供应链问题扰乱科技行业，没有哪家公司比思科系统公司更强调这个问题。周四，该公司公布的财务业绩因一系列零部件延误而受到影响，该股股价下跌超过6%。然而，很难找到一家长期前景更具吸引力的企业科技公司。</blockquote> While there will be continued near-term noise for Cisco (ticker: CSCO), investors should hop aboard now—the selloff this past week has made a cheap stock even cheaper.<blockquote>尽管思科（股票代码：CSCO）近期将持续存在噪音，但投资者现在应该买入——过去一周的抛售使廉价股票变得更加便宜。</blockquote> Cisco is seeing increased demand across its customer base: Cloud computing vendors are ramping up capital spending to meet soaring demand, telecom companies are rolling out their 5G networks around the world, and enterprise information-technology firms are accelerating spending as the pandemic fades.<blockquote>思科看到其客户群的需求不断增加：云计算供应商正在增加资本支出以满足飙升的需求，电信公司正在全球推出5G网络，随着疫情的消退，企业信息技术公司正在加速支出。</blockquote> In its fiscal first quarter ended on Oct. 30, Cisco saw 33% order growth, accelerating from 31% in the July quarter, with a whopping 200% growth in demand from “webscale” cloud providers and a 60% increase from telcos. Cisco said it exited the October quarter with the highest backlog in its history.<blockquote>在截至10月30日的第一财季，思科的订单增长了33%，高于7月份季度的31%，其中“webscale”云提供商的需求增长了200%，电信公司的需求增长了60%。思科表示，10月份季度的积压订单数量创下历史最高水平。</blockquote> Investors were too focused on the supply-chain issues to notice. While revenue of $12.9 billion was up 8% from the total a year earlier, it was toward the low end of the company’s guidance range of 7.5% to 9.5% and about $100 million shy of Wall Street estimates. The company’s revenue outlook for the January quarter calls for growth of 4.5% to 6.5%. At the midpoint, that implies revenue of $12.6 billion, about $300 million short of the old Wall Street consensus. Cisco is selling everything it can, but demand has dramatically outstripped its ability to meet customer needs.<blockquote>投资者过于关注供应链问题而没有注意到。虽然129亿美元的收入比去年同期增长了8%，但接近该公司7.5%至9.5%指导范围的低端，比华尔街的预期低约1亿美元。该公司对评级1月份季度的收入预期为增长4.5%至6.5%。按中点计算，这意味着收入为126亿美元，比华尔街旧共识少约3亿美元。思科正在销售它能销售的一切，但需求已经大大超过了它满足客户需求的能力。</blockquote> Two months ago, I wrote a bullish column about Cisco, ahead of its first meeting with analysts in four years. I noted that July-quarter results had been better than expected, due to some of the factors noted above, including strong demand from cloud vendors.<blockquote>两个月前，在思科四年来首次与分析师会面之前，我写了一篇关于思科的乐观专栏。我注意到，由于上述一些因素，包括云供应商的强劲需求，7月份季度的业绩好于预期。</blockquote> At the much-anticipated analyst meeting, Cisco said it expected annual profit and revenue growth of 5% to 7% through 2025, driven by an expanding portfolio of subscription-based businesses. And this past week, Cisco repeated its projection for growth in that same range for the July 2022 fiscal year, suggesting acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year.<blockquote>在备受期待的分析师会议上，思科表示，在不断扩大的订阅业务组合的推动下，预计到2025年，年利润和收入将增长5%至7%。上周，思科重申了2022年7月财年在同一范围内的增长预测，表明本财年下半年将加速增长。</blockquote> But right now, supply-chain issues are creating multiple problems for the company. For one thing, Cisco can’t get enough semiconductors, power supplies, and other key components to fulfill its needs. Manufacturing capacity is also an issue for Cisco, which doesn’t do any in-house manufacturing.<blockquote>但目前，供应链问题给该公司带来了多重问题。一方面，思科无法获得足够的半导体、电源和其他关键组件来满足其需求。对于思科来说，制造能力也是一个问题，因为它不进行任何内部制造。</blockquote> Cisco is providing financial support to contract manufacturing partners to expand capacity, and it’s adding more suppliers to address a severe shortage of finished goods, but the larger problem remains.<blockquote>思科正在向合同制造合作伙伴提供财务支持以扩大产能，并增加更多供应商以解决成品严重短缺的问题，但更大的问题仍然存在。</blockquote> Cisco Chief Financial Officer Scott Herren says the company is “working night and day” to resolve the component shortages.<blockquote>思科首席财务官斯科特·赫伦表示，该公司正在“夜以继日地工作”来解决组件短缺问题。</blockquote> That’s adding new expenses in the short term. To get parts faster, Cisco is paying surcharges for expedited delivery of some components. Herren says that air, ocean, and trucking shipping routes all remain “snarled.”<blockquote>这在短期内会增加新的开支。为了更快地获得零件，思科为一些组件的加急交付支付附加费。赫伦说，空运、海运和卡车运输路线仍然“混乱”。</blockquote> Cisco has raised prices on many products to offset the higher costs, but it will take time for the increases to flow through to the income statement, and pressure on margins will remain for at least the next few quarters.<blockquote>思科已经提高了许多产品的价格，以抵消更高的成本，但价格上涨需要时间才能反映到损益表中，至少在未来几个季度，利润率面临的压力仍将存在。</blockquote> J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote this past week that Cisco’s latest results offer “proof to the strong demand environment.” He concedes that supply constraints have worsened since the company reported July-quarter results, but he views the headwinds as transient, with the company’s accelerating orders “more reflective of the underlying pent-up demand for network and IT infrastructure upgrades.”<blockquote>摩根大通分析师萨米克·查特吉(Samik Chatterjee)上周写道，思科的最新业绩“证明了强劲的需求环境”。他承认，自该公司公布7月份季度业绩以来，供应限制已经恶化，但他认为不利因素是短暂的，该公司订单的加速“更多地反映了对网络和IT基础设施升级的潜在被压抑的需求”。</blockquote> Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Cisco stock and a price target of $70, some 30% above a recent close of $53.63.<blockquote>Chatterjee对思科股票给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为70美元，较近期收盘价53.63美元高出约30%。</blockquote> Cisco is hardly the only tech company dealing with shortages. As I wrote last month, supply-chain woes have hurt recent quarterly results at a variety of hardware companies, including&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL), which said the issue is going to be even worse in the December quarter.<blockquote>思科并不是唯一一家面临短缺的科技公司。正如我上个月所写，供应链困境损害了多家硬件公司最近的季度业绩，其中包括苹果(AAPL)，该公司表示，这个问题在12月季度将会更加严重。</blockquote> Supply-chain problems will be a major topic of conversation in coming earnings calls from PC makers&nbsp;Dell Technologies&nbsp;(DELL) and&nbsp;HP Inc.&nbsp;(HPQ). They are both scheduled to report results after the close of trading on Tuesday.<blockquote>供应链问题将成为个人电脑制造商戴尔科技(DELL)和惠普公司(HPQ)即将举行的财报评级上讨论的主要话题。他们都计划在周二收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote> The key question for investors in hardware stocks is whether orders are being delayed—or destroyed. For some consumer goods, shortages during the holiday shopping season could result in gift-givers simply buying something else—your loved ones might have to settle for a sweater over a laptop. But when it comes to IT infrastructure, Cisco’s rivals face the same challenges; everyone is supply-constrained. No one is better-positioned.<blockquote>硬件股投资者面临的关键问题是订单是否被延迟或破坏。对于一些消费品来说，假日购物季的短缺可能会导致送礼者简单地购买其他东西——您所爱的人可能不得不满足于购买毛衣而不是笔记本电脑。但在IT基础设施方面，思科的竞争对手也面临着同样的挑战；每个人都是供应受限的。没有人处于更好的位置。</blockquote> Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told me that he sees no signs of lost orders so far. “At some point, you lose something to someone who can deliver faster,” he said, while quickly adding that “we are getting our share the other way, as well.”<blockquote>思科首席执行官查克·罗宾斯告诉我，到目前为止，他没有看到订单丢失的迹象。“在某些时候，你会失去一些东西给能够更快交付的人，”他说，同时很快补充道，“我们也通过另一种方式获得了我们的份额。”</blockquote> Robbins noted that some competitors have deferred shipments to existing customers in order to supply new ones. But he also said that Cisco’s cancellation rates are running below historic norms. In short, most of Cisco’s customers will simply wait it out. Investors should do the same.<blockquote>罗宾斯指出，一些竞争对手推迟了向现有客户发货，以便供应新客户。但他也表示，思科的取消率低于历史正常水平。简而言之，思科的大多数客户只会等待。投资者也应该这样做。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/supply-chain-cisco-stock-51637355322?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CSCO":"思科"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/supply-chain-cisco-stock-51637355322?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148648835","content_text":"As supply-chain issues roil the tech sector, no company underscores the issue more than Cisco Systems.The stock fell more than 6% on Thursday after the company reported financial results that were dented by a panoply of component delays. And yet, it’s hard to find an enterprise tech company with a more appealing long-term outlook.\nWhile there will be continued near-term noise for Cisco (ticker: CSCO), investors should hop aboard now—the selloff this past week has made a cheap stock even cheaper.\nCisco is seeing increased demand across its customer base: Cloud computing vendors are ramping up capital spending to meet soaring demand, telecom companies are rolling out their 5G networks around the world, and enterprise information-technology firms are accelerating spending as the pandemic fades.\nIn its fiscal first quarter ended on Oct. 30, Cisco saw 33% order growth, accelerating from 31% in the July quarter, with a whopping 200% growth in demand from “webscale” cloud providers and a 60% increase from telcos. Cisco said it exited the October quarter with the highest backlog in its history.\nInvestors were too focused on the supply-chain issues to notice. While revenue of $12.9 billion was up 8% from the total a year earlier, it was toward the low end of the company’s guidance range of 7.5% to 9.5% and about $100 million shy of Wall Street estimates. The company’s revenue outlook for the January quarter calls for growth of 4.5% to 6.5%. At the midpoint, that implies revenue of $12.6 billion, about $300 million short of the old Wall Street consensus. Cisco is selling everything it can, but demand has dramatically outstripped its ability to meet customer needs.\nTwo months ago, I wrote a bullish column about Cisco, ahead of its first meeting with analysts in four years. I noted that July-quarter results had been better than expected, due to some of the factors noted above, including strong demand from cloud vendors.\nAt the much-anticipated analyst meeting, Cisco said it expected annual profit and revenue growth of 5% to 7% through 2025, driven by an expanding portfolio of subscription-based businesses. And this past week, Cisco repeated its projection for growth in that same range for the July 2022 fiscal year, suggesting acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year.\nBut right now, supply-chain issues are creating multiple problems for the company. For one thing, Cisco can’t get enough semiconductors, power supplies, and other key components to fulfill its needs. Manufacturing capacity is also an issue for Cisco, which doesn’t do any in-house manufacturing.\nCisco is providing financial support to contract manufacturing partners to expand capacity, and it’s adding more suppliers to address a severe shortage of finished goods, but the larger problem remains.\nCisco Chief Financial Officer Scott Herren says the company is “working night and day” to resolve the component shortages.\nThat’s adding new expenses in the short term. To get parts faster, Cisco is paying surcharges for expedited delivery of some components. Herren says that air, ocean, and trucking shipping routes all remain “snarled.”\nCisco has raised prices on many products to offset the higher costs, but it will take time for the increases to flow through to the income statement, and pressure on margins will remain for at least the next few quarters.\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote this past week that Cisco’s latest results offer “proof to the strong demand environment.” He concedes that supply constraints have worsened since the company reported July-quarter results, but he views the headwinds as transient, with the company’s accelerating orders “more reflective of the underlying pent-up demand for network and IT infrastructure upgrades.”\nChatterjee has an Overweight rating on Cisco stock and a price target of $70, some 30% above a recent close of $53.63.\nCisco is hardly the only tech company dealing with shortages. As I wrote last month, supply-chain woes have hurt recent quarterly results at a variety of hardware companies, including Apple (AAPL), which said the issue is going to be even worse in the December quarter.\nSupply-chain problems will be a major topic of conversation in coming earnings calls from PC makers Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ). They are both scheduled to report results after the close of trading on Tuesday.\nThe key question for investors in hardware stocks is whether orders are being delayed—or destroyed. For some consumer goods, shortages during the holiday shopping season could result in gift-givers simply buying something else—your loved ones might have to settle for a sweater over a laptop. But when it comes to IT infrastructure, Cisco’s rivals face the same challenges; everyone is supply-constrained. No one is better-positioned.\nCisco CEO Chuck Robbins told me that he sees no signs of lost orders so far. “At some point, you lose something to someone who can deliver faster,” he said, while quickly adding that “we are getting our share the other way, as well.”\nRobbins noted that some competitors have deferred shipments to existing customers in order to supply new ones. But he also said that Cisco’s cancellation rates are running below historic norms. In short, most of Cisco’s customers will simply wait it out. Investors should do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CSCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872507153"}