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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":873479746,"tweetId":"873479746","gmtCreate":1636982415457,"gmtModify":1636982786989,"author":{"id":3577583042847869,"idStr":"3577583042847869","authorId":3577583042847869,"authorIdStr":"3577583042847869","name":"kt888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873479746","repostId":1129444395,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129444395","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636980609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129444395?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Market Bets on a Fed Interest-Rate Mistake<blockquote>市场押注美联储利率错误</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129444395","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"The market is saying that the Federal Reserve is going to be raising rates sooner and faster than th","content":"The market is saying that the Federal Reserve is going to be raising rates sooner and faster than the central bank itself thinks it will. But the market is also saying that rates won’t go as high as the Fed eventually thinks they will.<blockquote>市场表示，美联储加息的速度将比央行自己想象的更快、更快。但市场也表示，利率不会像美联储最终认为的那样高。</blockquote> Say what?<blockquote>说什么？</blockquote> In September, when Fed policy makers&nbsp;last offered projections&nbsp;on where they thought interest rates would go, they were split on what would happen next year: Half thought they would be leaving their target range on overnight rates near zero. Most of the rest thought they would raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point. Judging by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks&nbsp;following the November Fed meeting, more policy makers might now be leaning toward a single, quarter-point increase than before.<blockquote>9月份，当美联储政策制定者上次对他们认为的利率走向做出预测时，他们对明年会发生什么存在分歧：一半的人认为他们将把隔夜利率的目标范围保持在接近零的水平。其余的大多数人认为他们会将范围提高四分之一个百分点。从美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在11月美联储会议后的讲话来看，现在可能有更多的政策制定者倾向于比以前加息四分之一个百分点。</blockquote> Interest-rate futures are saying something different. They now imply the odds of the Fed raising its target range by at least a half point by the end of next year at 83%, according to&nbsp;CME Group calculations. Following the Fed’s September meeting, the odds of that happening were just 22%. Moreover, the futures now put the odds of the Fed raising rates by three-quarters of a point or more at 54%.<blockquote>利率期货却有不同的说法。根据芝商所的计算，他们现在暗示美联储在明年年底前将目标区间上调至少半个百分点的可能性为83%。美联储9月份会议后，这种情况发生的可能性仅为22%。此外，期货目前显示美联储加息四分之三个百分点或更多的可能性为54%。</blockquote> The change in the market’s rate odds came about as it became clear that the supply-chain and labor issues that have been pushing inflation higher were proving more persistent than many forecasters had hoped. One interpretation is that, despite the Fed’s view that much of the recent rise in inflation will end up being transitory, investors in the rates market believe that prices will keep heading higher, that the labor market will continue to tighten and that the Fed will raise rates more than it expects.<blockquote>市场利率赔率发生变化之际，事实证明，一直推高通胀的供应链和劳动力问题比许多预测者希望的更加持久。一种解释是，尽管美联储认为近期通胀上升最终将是暂时的，但利率市场的投资者认为物价将继续走高，劳动力市场将继续收紧，美联储将加息幅度超过预期。</blockquote> By the final quarter of 2023, market pricing suggests overnight rates will average about 1.4%, according toa Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta model, whereas the median projection among Fed policy makers has them finishing the year at 1%.<blockquote>根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的模型，到2023年最后一个季度，市场定价表明隔夜利率平均约为1.4%，而美联储政策制定者的预测中值为1%。</blockquote> But after that, the script switches. Long-term interest rates, which are supposed to reflect investor forecasts of what overnight rates will average over the years, remain low, with the 10-year Treasury lately yielding 1.58%.A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco modelbased off Treasury yields and estimates of “term premia—the fudge factors investors build into Treasury prices as insurance against the risk their rate forecasts are wrong—puts overnight rates at around 1.4% at the end of 2024 and remaining around there through 2031.<blockquote>但在那之后，脚本会切换。长期利率应该反映投资者对多年来平均隔夜利率的预测，但长期利率仍然很低，10年期国债最近的收益率为1.58%。旧金山联邦储备银行的模型基于国债收益率和“期限溢价”的估计——投资者在国债价格中加入的捏造因素，作为对利率预测错误风险的保险——预计2024年底隔夜利率将保持在1.4%左右，并在2031年之前保持在这一水平。</blockquote> By contrast, Fed policy makers project their target on overnight rates will rise to 1.75% at the end of 2024. And over the longer haul they think it will rise to 2.5%.<blockquote>相比之下，美联储政策制定者预计隔夜利率目标将在2024年底升至1.75%。从长远来看，他们认为这一比例将升至2.5%。</blockquote> One interpretation of market pricing is that the Fed will raise rates in response to a burst of inflation that proves temporary, hamstringing the economy. As a result, the Fed will fall short of employment and long-term inflation goals and will never get rates to where it thinks they ought to be in a well-functioning economy. Put otherwise, the market thinks that Fed policy makers should stick with their projections and raise rates slowly. But the market also reckons the Fed will make a mistake and raise rates too quickly.<blockquote>对市场定价的一种解释是，美联储将加息以应对暂时的通胀爆发，从而削弱经济。因此，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标，并且永远不会将利率提高到它认为在运转良好的经济中应该达到的水平。换句话说，市场认为美联储政策制定者应该坚持他们的预测并缓慢加息。但市场也认为美联储将犯一个错误，加息过快。</blockquote> If that seems far-fetched, it is important to remember the influence Fed policy expectations have over rates markets is hardly absolute. All sorts of factors affect long-term Treasury yields, including their levels relative to other countries’ bond yields, hedging needs and the general availability of places to safely park money over the long haul. Short-term interest-rate futures can over-adjust to changes in expectations as investors get flushed out of positions.<blockquote>如果这看起来很牵强，那么重要的是要记住美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。各种因素都会影响长期国债收益率，包括其相对于其他国家债券收益率的水平、对冲需求以及长期安全存放资金的场所的普遍可用性。随着投资者抛售头寸，短期利率期货可能会根据预期的变化过度调整。</blockquote> The market might be smarter than any one forecaster or the Federal Reserve when it comes to where rates are going. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy figuring out what the market is trying to say.<blockquote>当谈到利率走向时，市场可能比任何一个预测者或美联储都更聪明。不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Bets on a Fed Interest-Rate Mistake<blockquote>市场押注美联储利率错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Bets on a Fed Interest-Rate Mistake<blockquote>市场押注美联储利率错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nWall Street Journal2021-11-15 20:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market is saying that the Federal Reserve is going to be raising rates sooner and faster than the central bank itself thinks it will. But the market is also saying that rates won’t go as high as the Fed eventually thinks they will.<blockquote>市场表示，美联储加息的速度将比央行自己想象的更快、更快。但市场也表示，利率不会像美联储最终认为的那样高。</blockquote> Say what?<blockquote>说什么？</blockquote> In September, when Fed policy makers&nbsp;last offered projections&nbsp;on where they thought interest rates would go, they were split on what would happen next year: Half thought they would be leaving their target range on overnight rates near zero. Most of the rest thought they would raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point. Judging by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks&nbsp;following the November Fed meeting, more policy makers might now be leaning toward a single, quarter-point increase than before.<blockquote>9月份，当美联储政策制定者上次对他们认为的利率走向做出预测时，他们对明年会发生什么存在分歧：一半的人认为他们将把隔夜利率的目标范围保持在接近零的水平。其余的大多数人认为他们会将范围提高四分之一个百分点。从美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在11月美联储会议后的讲话来看，现在可能有更多的政策制定者倾向于比以前加息四分之一个百分点。</blockquote> Interest-rate futures are saying something different. They now imply the odds of the Fed raising its target range by at least a half point by the end of next year at 83%, according to&nbsp;CME Group calculations. Following the Fed’s September meeting, the odds of that happening were just 22%. Moreover, the futures now put the odds of the Fed raising rates by three-quarters of a point or more at 54%.<blockquote>利率期货却有不同的说法。根据芝商所的计算，他们现在暗示美联储在明年年底前将目标区间上调至少半个百分点的可能性为83%。美联储9月份会议后，这种情况发生的可能性仅为22%。此外，期货目前显示美联储加息四分之三个百分点或更多的可能性为54%。</blockquote> The change in the market’s rate odds came about as it became clear that the supply-chain and labor issues that have been pushing inflation higher were proving more persistent than many forecasters had hoped. One interpretation is that, despite the Fed’s view that much of the recent rise in inflation will end up being transitory, investors in the rates market believe that prices will keep heading higher, that the labor market will continue to tighten and that the Fed will raise rates more than it expects.<blockquote>市场利率赔率发生变化之际，事实证明，一直推高通胀的供应链和劳动力问题比许多预测者希望的更加持久。一种解释是，尽管美联储认为近期通胀上升最终将是暂时的，但利率市场的投资者认为物价将继续走高，劳动力市场将继续收紧，美联储将加息幅度超过预期。</blockquote> By the final quarter of 2023, market pricing suggests overnight rates will average about 1.4%, according toa Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta model, whereas the median projection among Fed policy makers has them finishing the year at 1%.<blockquote>根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的模型，到2023年最后一个季度，市场定价表明隔夜利率平均约为1.4%，而美联储政策制定者的预测中值为1%。</blockquote> But after that, the script switches. Long-term interest rates, which are supposed to reflect investor forecasts of what overnight rates will average over the years, remain low, with the 10-year Treasury lately yielding 1.58%.A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco modelbased off Treasury yields and estimates of “term premia—the fudge factors investors build into Treasury prices as insurance against the risk their rate forecasts are wrong—puts overnight rates at around 1.4% at the end of 2024 and remaining around there through 2031.<blockquote>但在那之后，脚本会切换。长期利率应该反映投资者对多年来平均隔夜利率的预测，但长期利率仍然很低，10年期国债最近的收益率为1.58%。旧金山联邦储备银行的模型基于国债收益率和“期限溢价”的估计——投资者在国债价格中加入的捏造因素，作为对利率预测错误风险的保险——预计2024年底隔夜利率将保持在1.4%左右，并在2031年之前保持在这一水平。</blockquote> By contrast, Fed policy makers project their target on overnight rates will rise to 1.75% at the end of 2024. And over the longer haul they think it will rise to 2.5%.<blockquote>相比之下，美联储政策制定者预计隔夜利率目标将在2024年底升至1.75%。从长远来看，他们认为这一比例将升至2.5%。</blockquote> One interpretation of market pricing is that the Fed will raise rates in response to a burst of inflation that proves temporary, hamstringing the economy. As a result, the Fed will fall short of employment and long-term inflation goals and will never get rates to where it thinks they ought to be in a well-functioning economy. Put otherwise, the market thinks that Fed policy makers should stick with their projections and raise rates slowly. But the market also reckons the Fed will make a mistake and raise rates too quickly.<blockquote>对市场定价的一种解释是，美联储将加息以应对暂时的通胀爆发，从而削弱经济。因此，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标，并且永远不会将利率提高到它认为在运转良好的经济中应该达到的水平。换句话说，市场认为美联储政策制定者应该坚持他们的预测并缓慢加息。但市场也认为美联储将犯一个错误，加息过快。</blockquote> If that seems far-fetched, it is important to remember the influence Fed policy expectations have over rates markets is hardly absolute. All sorts of factors affect long-term Treasury yields, including their levels relative to other countries’ bond yields, hedging needs and the general availability of places to safely park money over the long haul. Short-term interest-rate futures can over-adjust to changes in expectations as investors get flushed out of positions.<blockquote>如果这看起来很牵强，那么重要的是要记住美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。各种因素都会影响长期国债收益率，包括其相对于其他国家债券收益率的水平、对冲需求以及长期安全存放资金的场所的普遍可用性。随着投资者抛售头寸，短期利率期货可能会根据预期的变化过度调整。</blockquote> The market might be smarter than any one forecaster or the Federal Reserve when it comes to where rates are going. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy figuring out what the market is trying to say.<blockquote>当谈到利率走向时，市场可能比任何一个预测者或美联储都更聪明。不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/market-bets-on-a-fed-interest-rate-mistake-11636977780?siteid=yhoof2\">Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/market-bets-on-a-fed-interest-rate-mistake-11636977780?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129444395","content_text":"The market is saying that the Federal Reserve is going to be raising rates sooner and faster than the central bank itself thinks it will. But the market is also saying that rates won’t go as high as the Fed eventually thinks they will.\nSay what?\nIn September, when Fed policy makers last offered projections on where they thought interest rates would go, they were split on what would happen next year: Half thought they would be leaving their target range on overnight rates near zero. Most of the rest thought they would raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point. Judging by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks following the November Fed meeting, more policy makers might now be leaning toward a single, quarter-point increase than before.\nInterest-rate futures are saying something different. They now imply the odds of the Fed raising its target range by at least a half point by the end of next year at 83%, according to CME Group calculations. Following the Fed’s September meeting, the odds of that happening were just 22%. Moreover, the futures now put the odds of the Fed raising rates by three-quarters of a point or more at 54%.\nThe change in the market’s rate odds came about as it became clear that the supply-chain and labor issues that have been pushing inflation higher were proving more persistent than many forecasters had hoped. One interpretation is that, despite the Fed’s view that much of the recent rise in inflation will end up being transitory, investors in the rates market believe that prices will keep heading higher, that the labor market will continue to tighten and that the Fed will raise rates more than it expects.\nBy the final quarter of 2023, market pricing suggests overnight rates will average about 1.4%, according toa Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta model, whereas the median projection among Fed policy makers has them finishing the year at 1%.\nBut after that, the script switches. Long-term interest rates, which are supposed to reflect investor forecasts of what overnight rates will average over the years, remain low, with the 10-year Treasury lately yielding 1.58%.A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco modelbased off Treasury yields and estimates of “term premia—the fudge factors investors build into Treasury prices as insurance against the risk their rate forecasts are wrong—puts overnight rates at around 1.4% at the end of 2024 and remaining around there through 2031.\nBy contrast, Fed policy makers project their target on overnight rates will rise to 1.75% at the end of 2024. And over the longer haul they think it will rise to 2.5%.\nOne interpretation of market pricing is that the Fed will raise rates in response to a burst of inflation that proves temporary, hamstringing the economy. As a result, the Fed will fall short of employment and long-term inflation goals and will never get rates to where it thinks they ought to be in a well-functioning economy. Put otherwise, the market thinks that Fed policy makers should stick with their projections and raise rates slowly. But the market also reckons the Fed will make a mistake and raise rates too quickly.\nIf that seems far-fetched, it is important to remember the influence Fed policy expectations have over rates markets is hardly absolute. All sorts of factors affect long-term Treasury yields, including their levels relative to other countries’ bond yields, hedging needs and the general availability of places to safely park money over the long haul. Short-term interest-rate futures can over-adjust to changes in expectations as investors get flushed out of positions.\nThe market might be smarter than any one forecaster or the Federal Reserve when it comes to where rates are going. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy figuring out what the market is trying to say.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/873479746"}