Nez
2021-11-24
Yes please!
Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股票明年会上涨25%？</blockquote>
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Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为，明年股价可能会再上涨 25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在 11 月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营的消费科技市场的专家。部分原因是，即使在 160 美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL 股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的伊万-费恩塞斯（Ivan Feinseth）最近将新的股价目标定为近 200 美元。在这些水平下，AAPL 在未来 12 个月内将呈现出约 25% 的增长潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200 美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到 32.8 倍，才能从现在开始攀升 25%，到 2022 年这个时候达到每股 200 美元。作为参考，今天可比的远期倍数只有28.2倍。远期市盈率直到 2020 年 8 月下旬才攀升至 30 左右，就在 AAPL 在第三季度末大幅修正之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有假设 2023 年每股收益 6.09 美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出市场预期的业绩，即使没有任何估值扩张，其股价也可能达到 200 美元。例如，这可能是由于假日季度 iPhone 销售强劲造成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重演，但它经常押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到苹果公司目前正处于历史新高，苹果在 12 个月内攀升 25% 的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买股票，投资苹果股票往往会在未来 12 个月内提供最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌 30% 以上后被买入时，一年涨幅接近 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在 2007 年第一款 iPhone 推出以来的历史最高点买入苹果公司，并持有股票整整一年，那么他或她的平均回报率 “只有 ”19%。然而，25%或以上的涨幅并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 从峰值开始的一年收益分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为 AAPL 以每股 160 美元的价格买入并持有是一个很好的选择。然而，从历史高点赚取 25% 并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来 12 个月左右产生高额回报。从峰值价格发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去 24 个月内就上涨了 140% 之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍然跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股票明年会上涨25%？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股票明年会上涨25%？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 08:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为，明年股价可能会再上涨 25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在 11 月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营的消费科技市场的专家。部分原因是，即使在 160 美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL 股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的伊万-费恩塞斯（Ivan Feinseth）最近将新的股价目标定为近 200 美元。在这些水平下，AAPL 在未来 12 个月内将呈现出约 25% 的增长潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200 美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到 32.8 倍，才能从现在开始攀升 25%，到 2022 年这个时候达到每股 200 美元。作为参考，今天可比的远期倍数只有28.2倍。远期市盈率直到 2020 年 8 月下旬才攀升至 30 左右，就在 AAPL 在第三季度末大幅修正之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有假设 2023 年每股收益 6.09 美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出市场预期的业绩，即使没有任何估值扩张，其股价也可能达到 200 美元。例如，这可能是由于假日季度 iPhone 销售强劲造成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重演，但它经常押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到苹果公司目前正处于历史新高，苹果在 12 个月内攀升 25% 的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买股票，投资苹果股票往往会在未来 12 个月内提供最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌 30% 以上后被买入时，一年涨幅接近 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在 2007 年第一款 iPhone 推出以来的历史最高点买入苹果公司，并持有股票整整一年，那么他或她的平均回报率 “只有 ”19%。然而，25%或以上的涨幅并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 从峰值开始的一年收益分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为 AAPL 以每股 160 美元的价格买入并持有是一个很好的选择。然而，从历史高点赚取 25% 并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来 12 个月左右产生高额回报。从峰值价格发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去 24 个月内就上涨了 140% 之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍然跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874182378"}
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