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2021-11-24

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Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：一个令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":874326298,"tweetId":"874326298","gmtCreate":1637732959510,"gmtModify":1637732959816,"author":{"id":3565687171198207,"idStr":"3565687171198207","authorId":3565687171198207,"authorIdStr":"3565687171198207","name":"Holla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0e402ff8043410cc67ffccbfe2174","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":60,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874326298","repostId":1141571893,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141571893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637732033,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141571893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 13:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：一个令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141571893","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.\nI briefly explore the curre","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.</li> <li>I briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.</li> <li>I also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.</li> <li>Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8bf7a2038aee5e70a8ab437ca3712b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ridofranz/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉保险是该公司令人兴奋的新领域。</li><li>我简要探讨了当前的个人汽车保险前景，然后分析了特斯拉的保险产品，包括德克萨斯州新推出的安全评分。</li><li>我还涵盖了特斯拉保险可能带来的风险和财务影响。</li><li>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一蹴而就。尽管如此，我不会打赌特斯拉会成功颠覆和竞争个人汽车保险市场。</li></ul>Ridofranz/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> What typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.<blockquote>当你想到个人汽车保险时，你通常会想到什么？对于普通消费者来说，保险很难理解，被认为是昂贵的，而且有点无聊。</blockquote> While that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.<blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但不一定是这样。特斯拉 (TSLA) 已在加州推出特斯拉保险，最近又在德克萨斯州推出。在本文中，我们将简要探讨个人汽车保险的前景，深入挖掘特斯拉个人汽车保险产品，并看看它对特斯拉的未来可能意味着什么。</blockquote> The Personal Auto Insurance Landscape<blockquote>个人汽车保险格局</blockquote> Personal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but&nbsp;two states&nbsp;within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.<blockquote>除了两个州（弗吉尼亚州和新罕布什尔州），个人汽车保险是美国所有州的强制性要求。大多数保险公司使用传统因素（信用评分、年龄、性别、地点、驾驶和车辆历史等）来定价保险。）可以选择加入基于使用的保险（UBI）计划。</blockquote> A UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at&nbsp;Progressive(PGR) or&nbsp;Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.<blockquote>UBI 计划有助于使您的汽车保险费用与您的驾驶习惯保持一致。以进步计划（PGR）或旅行者计划（TRV）为例。尽管如此，传统保险公司仍然首先在可选的UBI产品中使用上述传统因素。</blockquote> The personal auto market wrote about&nbsp;$250B&nbsp;in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).<blockquote>2020 年，个人汽车市场的溢价约为 2500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，特斯拉有很多机会产生有意义的收入。然而，目前排名前10的玩家约占2020年总书面保费的75%或3/4。State Farm 的市场份额最高，为 16.2%，其次是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司或 Geico (BRK.A)、Progressive 和 Allstate (ALL) 等公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2897c9ed5291406d6d1c560c1e8794da\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.<blockquote>Lemonade (LMND)、Metromile (MILE)（最近被 Lemonade 收购）、Root (Root) 和其他仅根据驾驶方式而不是传统因素对个人汽车保险定价的公司正试图颠覆这个庞大的行业。特斯拉现在也在努力做同样的事情。</blockquote> Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering<blockquote>特斯拉的个人汽车保险产品</blockquote> Tesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.<blockquote>特斯拉于2019年通过州国民保险公司在加州首次推出个人汽车保险。最近，该公司通过承保公司Redpoint County Mutual Insurance在德克萨斯州提供个人汽车保险，在其保险之旅中迈出了下一步。值得注意的是，特斯拉不是一家承保公司，它与承保公司合作，以特斯拉保险的名义提供其产品。</blockquote> The premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.<blockquote>保费取决于您驾驶的车辆、您提供的地址、您驾驶的车辆数量以及您选择的承保范围。该公司没有使用信用、年龄、性别和索赔历史等传统变量来为保险定价。与德克萨斯一起，特斯拉还推出了他们的UBI计划，称为安全分数，作为确定保费的额外因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacd23bb5a7dae5da6bf2ccf5415b666\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:<blockquote>安全评分基于驾驶行为，并根据五个安全因素为驾驶员分配 0 到 100 的评分：</blockquote> 1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.<blockquote>1.每1000英里前方碰撞警告：在由于车辆前方的物体可能发生碰撞的情况下，向驾驶员提供声音和视觉警报。保持安全距离并注意周围的交通有助于提高你的分数。</blockquote> 2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.<blockquote>2. 硬刹车*：定义为车辆速度在一秒钟内下降超过 6.7 英里/小时。尽管有定义，我想我们都知道什么是急刹车。可以通过在减速、停车或对环境变化做出反应时尽早踩下制动踏板来提高安全得分。</blockquote> 3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.<blockquote>3.积极转弯*：定义为车辆向左/向右的速度在一秒钟内增加超过 8.9 英里/小时。再说一次，当我们看到它时，我们都知道咄咄逼人的转弯。安全得分可以通过逐渐转弯、变道或转弯而不是积极地转弯来提高。</blockquote> 4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.<blockquote>4.以下不安全*：特斯拉汽车测量自己的速度、前方车辆的速度以及两辆车之间的距离。根据这些测量结果，特斯拉会计算进度，或者如果前面的车辆突然停下来，您必须做出反应并停下来的秒数。不安全跟车是指车辆行驶距离小于 1.0 秒的时间与车辆行驶距离小于 3.0 秒的时间之比。只有当您的车辆以至少50英里/小时的速度行驶时，才会测量不安全跟随。安全得分可以通过不尾随或靠近前面的车辆来提高，这样你就有足够的时间做出反应。</blockquote> 5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.<blockquote>5.强制自动驾驶仪脱离：如果您在自动驾驶期间将手从方向盘上移开，则会向驾驶员发送音频和视觉警告。其中三个警告会导致自动驾驶仪系统在行程剩余时间内脱离。</blockquote> *Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot<blockquote>*自动驾驶时不计入安全评分公式</blockquote> These factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.<blockquote>这些因素由特斯拉模型使用车辆上的各种传感器和自动驾驶仪软件直接测量。虽然这是特斯拉保险之旅中的重要一步，但安全评分并不是什么新鲜事。</blockquote> Many major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.<blockquote>许多美国主要的个人汽车保险公司都推出了可选的UBI计划，为驾驶员分配一个分数。尽管如此，有几个有意义的项目使特斯拉与众不同。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Some of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉在德州引入的一些因素与其他保险公司不同。例如，Progressive 没有前方碰撞警告或不安全跟随因素。另一方面，Progressive 将深夜驾驶和减少驾驶作为其 UBI 计划中的因素。随着更多数据的出现，特斯拉可能会在安全评分中引入新因素并调整现有因素。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Unlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.</li> <li>The Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.<blockquote><li>与其他主要运营商不同，特斯拉不需要在车内安装额外的设备来捕捉驾驶行为。特斯拉使用车辆内部的特定功能，根据实际驾驶来评估保费。</li><li>安全分数每天更新，提供驾驶安全的实时反馈。每日安全得分合并（最多 30 天），根据当月的驾驶活动提供保费。下面是一个保费如何根据每月分数变化的示例。传统保险公司不提供每日更新和按月变化的保费。相反，在收到分数和保费变化之前，通常会有 6 个月的监测期。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddc2c7837f9b0fcc32dca3d7729b1b2\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Based on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.<blockquote><ul><li>基于安全评分的引入以及与Repoint Insurance的合作，特斯拉保险是德克萨斯州全额保险最便宜的选择。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb75573bd60617bd436ac602c36bd13\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Lastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.<blockquote><ul><li>最后，也是最重要的一点，由于特斯拉汽车中的技术，该公司将能够利用第一方数据来预测碰撞频率。其他保险公司可能必须与不同的制造商合作，在销售点捕获汽车内的数据，特斯拉已经拥有第一方数据。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:<blockquote>首席财务官 Zachary Kirkhorn 解释道：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference. It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data. Tesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是带轮子的计算机，所以我们有大量的数据可供我们评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。我们已经能够回去分析这些数据，我们从中学到了两件事。首先，对于使用安全分数的客户来说，碰撞的概率降低了30%。这是一个相当大的区别。这意味着产品正在工作，客户正在对其做出反应。我们研究的第二件事是，根据实际数据，碰撞概率是驾驶员安全得分的函数。这与我们的模型一致。最值得注意的是，如果您处于最高级别的安全级别与较低级别的安全级别相比，根据实际数据，碰撞概率会有多重差异。特斯拉正在研究数百个不同的变量和数十亿英里的驾驶历史，以预测损失频率并单独定价每种风险。随着特斯拉销售更多汽车和人们驾驶更多汽车，数据集将继续增长并变得更好。特斯拉正计划在他们拥有汽车的每个主要市场推出个人汽车保险。</blockquote> Risks to Consider<blockquote>需要考虑的风险</blockquote> So far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:<blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉似乎处于利用这一新领域的有利位置。虽然这可能是真的，但我们还必须考虑几个重要的风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>It will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like&nbsp;Lemonade&nbsp;and&nbsp;Root&nbsp;already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.<blockquote><ul><li>要颠覆这个由TOP10公司主导的庞大行业并不容易。前10名和其他拥有一个世纪保险头脑的人已经开始引入不断改进的UBI计划。此外，像柠檬水和根这样的新兴保险纯游戏已经或正在努力扩大他们的UBI计划。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Personal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the&nbsp;Annual Shareholders’ meeting:<blockquote><li>个人汽车保险是一项复杂的业务，国家有严格的规定。在这片土地上导航并不容易。以下是埃隆-马斯克在年度股东大会上的描述：</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated. <ul> <li>Typically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司。是的。所以，就像保险是一个监管迷宫的程度是疯狂的。这就像被设计来让你们很难受。我不知道是不是--但这肯定非常困难。所以，有无数的申请，你必须等待一堆时间。而且这个过程漫长而复杂，而且很多都是各州的情况。大部分是各州的。所以，我们只是在全国各地处理申请。然后各州也有不同的规定。因此，实际上你不能--法律上不允许在每个州提供相同的保险。所以，你必须调整软件，使每个州都不一样。这基本上非常复杂。<ul><li>通常情况下，个人汽车保险的单位经济效益很差。市场上最好的汽车保险公司之一 Progressive 的目标是在考虑损失和费用（包括索赔处理成本）后实现约 6% 的利润率。凭借特斯拉的数字化体验，费用可能会低于传统的汽车保险销售和服务。尽管安全评分表明碰撞的可能性降低了30%，但损失率要难以预测得多。这就引出了一个问题：该公司将通过其保险产品实现什么样的利润？</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> Financial Impact of Tesla Insurance<blockquote>特斯拉保险的财务影响</blockquote> On the&nbsp;3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.<blockquote>在 2020 年第三季度财报看涨期权上，马斯克指出，特斯拉的目标是到 2030 年每年汽车销量达到 2000 万辆。这是一个崇高的目标，但让我们以此为基础，看看特斯拉保险可能对财务状况产生什么影响。</blockquote> If Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.<blockquote>如果特斯拉到 2030 年每年可以销售 2000 万辆汽车，而特斯拉保险的平均成本为 1,795 美元（基于之前分享的德克萨斯州结果），那么假设每辆车都选择特斯拉保险，特斯拉保险到 2030 年将产生约 360 亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Nobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.<blockquote>没有人知道特斯拉到 2030 年每年是否会销售 2000 万辆汽车，特斯拉保险的平均成本会是多少，或者客户是否真的会购买特斯拉保险而不是其他运营商。尽管如此，看看可能会发生什么是有帮助的。如下所示，即使特斯拉到 2030 年每年的汽车销量没有达到 2000 万辆，它仍然可以从其保险产品中产生有意义的收入。</blockquote> Musk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"<blockquote>马斯克在 2020 年第三季度财报看涨期权上特别表示，“坦率地说，保险很可能占汽车业务价值的 30%、40%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71469743b3b6f7ffab4202e00bd2a12f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> With Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.<blockquote>有了特斯拉保险，与底线估计相比，得出顶线估计更容易。目前，没有办法知道特斯拉保险产品的利润率会是多少，但是，我们可以估计。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1219fdafad7124ac4604ee9267da6e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> If we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.<blockquote>如果我们假设利润率为 6%（基于累进），最佳情况是到 2030 年每年销售 2000 万辆汽车，特斯拉将产生约 2.2B 美元的收入。如果特斯拉能够实现更高的利润率，随着时间的推移，它将对整体利润做出有意义的贡献。</blockquote> Please note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.<blockquote>请注意，上面的例子仅仅是高级预测，不可能是准确的。例如，到 2030 年每年 2000 万辆汽车销量是一个全球目标，而美国以外的某些国家要么不需要保险，要么受到非常不同的待遇。随着特斯拉保险公司将其产品扩展到其他州，以及我们收到更多信息，预测该公司的财务状况将变得更加容易。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be&nbsp;30%&nbsp;by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一蹴而就。在不同的州推出该产品可能需要很长时间。到 2030 年，电动汽车在美国新车销量中的总体份额预计将达到 30%，这意味着电动汽车的采用将缓慢而稳定。随着故事的展开，特斯拉将不得不成功地与老牌和新兴的私人汽车承运人竞争，通过各州复杂的法规，并努力产生有意义的收入和利润。</blockquote> At this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!<blockquote>在这一点上，我不知道特斯拉是否能够在个人汽车行业内颠覆和竞争，但时间会证明一切。我知道我会在一旁看着，我不会和他们打赌!</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：一个令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：一个令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-24 13:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.</li> <li>I briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.</li> <li>I also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.</li> <li>Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8bf7a2038aee5e70a8ab437ca3712b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ridofranz/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉保险是该公司令人兴奋的新领域。</li><li>我简要探讨了当前的个人汽车保险前景，然后分析了特斯拉的保险产品，包括德克萨斯州新推出的安全评分。</li><li>我还涵盖了特斯拉保险可能带来的风险和财务影响。</li><li>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一蹴而就。尽管如此，我不会打赌特斯拉会成功颠覆和竞争个人汽车保险市场。</li></ul>Ridofranz/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> What typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.<blockquote>当你想到个人汽车保险时，你通常会想到什么？对于普通消费者来说，保险很难理解，被认为是昂贵的，而且有点无聊。</blockquote> While that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.<blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但不一定是这样。特斯拉 (TSLA) 已在加州推出特斯拉保险，最近又在德克萨斯州推出。在本文中，我们将简要探讨个人汽车保险的前景，深入挖掘特斯拉个人汽车保险产品，并看看它对特斯拉的未来可能意味着什么。</blockquote> The Personal Auto Insurance Landscape<blockquote>个人汽车保险格局</blockquote> Personal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but&nbsp;two states&nbsp;within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.<blockquote>除了两个州（弗吉尼亚州和新罕布什尔州），个人汽车保险是美国所有州的强制性要求。大多数保险公司使用传统因素（信用评分、年龄、性别、地点、驾驶和车辆历史等）来定价保险。）可以选择加入基于使用的保险（UBI）计划。</blockquote> A UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at&nbsp;Progressive(PGR) or&nbsp;Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.<blockquote>UBI 计划有助于使您的汽车保险费用与您的驾驶习惯保持一致。以进步计划（PGR）或旅行者计划（TRV）为例。尽管如此，传统保险公司仍然首先在可选的UBI产品中使用上述传统因素。</blockquote> The personal auto market wrote about&nbsp;$250B&nbsp;in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).<blockquote>2020 年，个人汽车市场的溢价约为 2500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，特斯拉有很多机会产生有意义的收入。然而，目前排名前10的玩家约占2020年总书面保费的75%或3/4。State Farm 的市场份额最高，为 16.2%，其次是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司或 Geico (BRK.A)、Progressive 和 Allstate (ALL) 等公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2897c9ed5291406d6d1c560c1e8794da\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.<blockquote>Lemonade (LMND)、Metromile (MILE)（最近被 Lemonade 收购）、Root (Root) 和其他仅根据驾驶方式而不是传统因素对个人汽车保险定价的公司正试图颠覆这个庞大的行业。特斯拉现在也在努力做同样的事情。</blockquote> Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering<blockquote>特斯拉的个人汽车保险产品</blockquote> Tesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.<blockquote>特斯拉于2019年通过州国民保险公司在加州首次推出个人汽车保险。最近，该公司通过承保公司Redpoint County Mutual Insurance在德克萨斯州提供个人汽车保险，在其保险之旅中迈出了下一步。值得注意的是，特斯拉不是一家承保公司，它与承保公司合作，以特斯拉保险的名义提供其产品。</blockquote> The premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.<blockquote>保费取决于您驾驶的车辆、您提供的地址、您驾驶的车辆数量以及您选择的承保范围。该公司没有使用信用、年龄、性别和索赔历史等传统变量来为保险定价。与德克萨斯一起，特斯拉还推出了他们的UBI计划，称为安全分数，作为确定保费的额外因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacd23bb5a7dae5da6bf2ccf5415b666\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:<blockquote>安全评分基于驾驶行为，并根据五个安全因素为驾驶员分配 0 到 100 的评分：</blockquote> 1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.<blockquote>1.每1000英里前方碰撞警告：在由于车辆前方的物体可能发生碰撞的情况下，向驾驶员提供声音和视觉警报。保持安全距离并注意周围的交通有助于提高你的分数。</blockquote> 2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.<blockquote>2. 硬刹车*：定义为车辆速度在一秒钟内下降超过 6.7 英里/小时。尽管有定义，我想我们都知道什么是急刹车。可以通过在减速、停车或对环境变化做出反应时尽早踩下制动踏板来提高安全得分。</blockquote> 3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.<blockquote>3.积极转弯*：定义为车辆向左/向右的速度在一秒钟内增加超过 8.9 英里/小时。再说一次，当我们看到它时，我们都知道咄咄逼人的转弯。安全得分可以通过逐渐转弯、变道或转弯而不是积极地转弯来提高。</blockquote> 4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.<blockquote>4.以下不安全*：特斯拉汽车测量自己的速度、前方车辆的速度以及两辆车之间的距离。根据这些测量结果，特斯拉会计算进度，或者如果前面的车辆突然停下来，您必须做出反应并停下来的秒数。不安全跟车是指车辆行驶距离小于 1.0 秒的时间与车辆行驶距离小于 3.0 秒的时间之比。只有当您的车辆以至少50英里/小时的速度行驶时，才会测量不安全跟随。安全得分可以通过不尾随或靠近前面的车辆来提高，这样你就有足够的时间做出反应。</blockquote> 5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.<blockquote>5.强制自动驾驶仪脱离：如果您在自动驾驶期间将手从方向盘上移开，则会向驾驶员发送音频和视觉警告。其中三个警告会导致自动驾驶仪系统在行程剩余时间内脱离。</blockquote> *Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot<blockquote>*自动驾驶时不计入安全评分公式</blockquote> These factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.<blockquote>这些因素由特斯拉模型使用车辆上的各种传感器和自动驾驶仪软件直接测量。虽然这是特斯拉保险之旅中的重要一步，但安全评分并不是什么新鲜事。</blockquote> Many major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.<blockquote>许多美国主要的个人汽车保险公司都推出了可选的UBI计划，为驾驶员分配一个分数。尽管如此，有几个有意义的项目使特斯拉与众不同。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Some of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉在德州引入的一些因素与其他保险公司不同。例如，Progressive 没有前方碰撞警告或不安全跟随因素。另一方面，Progressive 将深夜驾驶和减少驾驶作为其 UBI 计划中的因素。随着更多数据的出现，特斯拉可能会在安全评分中引入新因素并调整现有因素。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Unlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.</li> <li>The Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.<blockquote><li>与其他主要运营商不同，特斯拉不需要在车内安装额外的设备来捕捉驾驶行为。特斯拉使用车辆内部的特定功能，根据实际驾驶来评估保费。</li><li>安全分数每天更新，提供驾驶安全的实时反馈。每日安全得分合并（最多 30 天），根据当月的驾驶活动提供保费。下面是一个保费如何根据每月分数变化的示例。传统保险公司不提供每日更新和按月变化的保费。相反，在收到分数和保费变化之前，通常会有 6 个月的监测期。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddc2c7837f9b0fcc32dca3d7729b1b2\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Based on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.<blockquote><ul><li>基于安全评分的引入以及与Repoint Insurance的合作，特斯拉保险是德克萨斯州全额保险最便宜的选择。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb75573bd60617bd436ac602c36bd13\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Lastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.<blockquote><ul><li>最后，也是最重要的一点，由于特斯拉汽车中的技术，该公司将能够利用第一方数据来预测碰撞频率。其他保险公司可能必须与不同的制造商合作，在销售点捕获汽车内的数据，特斯拉已经拥有第一方数据。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:<blockquote>首席财务官 Zachary Kirkhorn 解释道：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference. It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data. Tesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是带轮子的计算机，所以我们有大量的数据可供我们评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。我们已经能够回去分析这些数据，我们从中学到了两件事。首先，对于使用安全分数的客户来说，碰撞的概率降低了30%。这是一个相当大的区别。这意味着产品正在工作，客户正在对其做出反应。我们研究的第二件事是，根据实际数据，碰撞概率是驾驶员安全得分的函数。这与我们的模型一致。最值得注意的是，如果您处于最高级别的安全级别与较低级别的安全级别相比，根据实际数据，碰撞概率会有多重差异。特斯拉正在研究数百个不同的变量和数十亿英里的驾驶历史，以预测损失频率并单独定价每种风险。随着特斯拉销售更多汽车和人们驾驶更多汽车，数据集将继续增长并变得更好。特斯拉正计划在他们拥有汽车的每个主要市场推出个人汽车保险。</blockquote> Risks to Consider<blockquote>需要考虑的风险</blockquote> So far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:<blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉似乎处于利用这一新领域的有利位置。虽然这可能是真的，但我们还必须考虑几个重要的风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>It will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like&nbsp;Lemonade&nbsp;and&nbsp;Root&nbsp;already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.<blockquote><ul><li>要颠覆这个由TOP10公司主导的庞大行业并不容易。前10名和其他拥有一个世纪保险头脑的人已经开始引入不断改进的UBI计划。此外，像柠檬水和根这样的新兴保险纯游戏已经或正在努力扩大他们的UBI计划。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Personal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the&nbsp;Annual Shareholders’ meeting:<blockquote><li>个人汽车保险是一项复杂的业务，国家有严格的规定。在这片土地上导航并不容易。以下是埃隆-马斯克在年度股东大会上的描述：</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated. <ul> <li>Typically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司。是的。所以，就像保险是一个监管迷宫的程度是疯狂的。这就像被设计来让你们很难受。我不知道是不是--但这肯定非常困难。所以，有无数的申请，你必须等待一堆时间。而且这个过程漫长而复杂，而且很多都是各州的情况。大部分是各州的。所以，我们只是在全国各地处理申请。然后各州也有不同的规定。因此，实际上你不能--法律上不允许在每个州提供相同的保险。所以，你必须调整软件，使每个州都不一样。这基本上非常复杂。<ul><li>通常情况下，个人汽车保险的单位经济效益很差。市场上最好的汽车保险公司之一 Progressive 的目标是在考虑损失和费用（包括索赔处理成本）后实现约 6% 的利润率。凭借特斯拉的数字化体验，费用可能会低于传统的汽车保险销售和服务。尽管安全评分表明碰撞的可能性降低了30%，但损失率要难以预测得多。这就引出了一个问题：该公司将通过其保险产品实现什么样的利润？</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> Financial Impact of Tesla Insurance<blockquote>特斯拉保险的财务影响</blockquote> On the&nbsp;3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.<blockquote>在 2020 年第三季度财报看涨期权上，马斯克指出，特斯拉的目标是到 2030 年每年汽车销量达到 2000 万辆。这是一个崇高的目标，但让我们以此为基础，看看特斯拉保险可能对财务状况产生什么影响。</blockquote> If Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.<blockquote>如果特斯拉到 2030 年每年可以销售 2000 万辆汽车，而特斯拉保险的平均成本为 1,795 美元（基于之前分享的德克萨斯州结果），那么假设每辆车都选择特斯拉保险，特斯拉保险到 2030 年将产生约 360 亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Nobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.<blockquote>没有人知道特斯拉到 2030 年每年是否会销售 2000 万辆汽车，特斯拉保险的平均成本会是多少，或者客户是否真的会购买特斯拉保险而不是其他运营商。尽管如此，看看可能会发生什么是有帮助的。如下所示，即使特斯拉到 2030 年每年的汽车销量没有达到 2000 万辆，它仍然可以从其保险产品中产生有意义的收入。</blockquote> Musk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"<blockquote>马斯克在 2020 年第三季度财报看涨期权上特别表示，“坦率地说，保险很可能占汽车业务价值的 30%、40%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71469743b3b6f7ffab4202e00bd2a12f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> With Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.<blockquote>有了特斯拉保险，与底线估计相比，得出顶线估计更容易。目前，没有办法知道特斯拉保险产品的利润率会是多少，但是，我们可以估计。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1219fdafad7124ac4604ee9267da6e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> If we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.<blockquote>如果我们假设利润率为 6%（基于累进），最佳情况是到 2030 年每年销售 2000 万辆汽车，特斯拉将产生约 2.2B 美元的收入。如果特斯拉能够实现更高的利润率，随着时间的推移，它将对整体利润做出有意义的贡献。</blockquote> Please note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.<blockquote>请注意，上面的例子仅仅是高级预测，不可能是准确的。例如，到 2030 年每年 2000 万辆汽车销量是一个全球目标，而美国以外的某些国家要么不需要保险，要么受到非常不同的待遇。随着特斯拉保险公司将其产品扩展到其他州，以及我们收到更多信息，预测该公司的财务状况将变得更加容易。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be&nbsp;30%&nbsp;by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一蹴而就。在不同的州推出该产品可能需要很长时间。到 2030 年，电动汽车在美国新车销量中的总体份额预计将达到 30%，这意味着电动汽车的采用将缓慢而稳定。随着故事的展开，特斯拉将不得不成功地与老牌和新兴的私人汽车承运人竞争，通过各州复杂的法规，并努力产生有意义的收入和利润。</blockquote> At this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!<blockquote>在这一点上，我不知道特斯拉是否能够在个人汽车行业内颠覆和竞争，但时间会证明一切。我知道我会在一旁看着，我不会和他们打赌!</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471362-tesla-stock-personal-auto-insurance-a-new-and-exciting-frontier\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471362-tesla-stock-personal-auto-insurance-a-new-and-exciting-frontier","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141571893","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.\nI briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.\nI also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.\nTesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.\n\nRidofranz/iStock via Getty Images\nWhat typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.\nWhile that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.\nThe Personal Auto Insurance Landscape\nPersonal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but two states within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.\nA UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at Progressive(PGR) or Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.\nThe personal auto market wrote about $250B in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).\n\nLemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.\nTesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering\nTesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.\nThe premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.\n\nThe Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:\n1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.\n2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.\n3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.\n4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.\n5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.\n*Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot\nThese factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.\nMany major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.\n\nSome of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.\nUnlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.\nThe Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.\n\n\n\nBased on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.\n\n\n\nLastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.\n\nCFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:\n\n At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety.\n\n\n We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference.\n\n\n It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data.\n\nTesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.\nRisks to Consider\nSo far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:\n\nIt will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like Lemonade and Root already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.\nPersonal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the Annual Shareholders’ meeting:\n\n\n Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated.\n\n\nTypically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?\n\nFinancial Impact of Tesla Insurance\nOn the 3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.\nIf Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.\nNobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.\nMusk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"\n\nWith Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.\n\nIf we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.\nPlease note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.\nConclusion\nTesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be 30% by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.\nAt this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874326298"}