Eded
2021-11-24
I can also predict 10k in a decade
The S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，标普500明年将突破5,000点</blockquote>
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The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)全球股票策略师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)在一份研究报告中表示：“名义利润繁荣将在2022年重演。名义GDP和美国国债收益率之间的差距将足够大，足以让企业获得超额利润。”明年将影响美国和全球股市。</blockquote></p><p> Surging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.</p><p><blockquote>企业盈利飙升推动了标普500今年的上涨，基准指数接近4,700点，并在此过程中创下了66个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Strong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>Darby写道，强大的定价能力可能有助于2021年约50%的年盈利增长看起来“相当合理”，并指出杰富瑞此前预计该标普500的盈利增长为41%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“从大流行后复苏中吸取的教训是，低估企业定价能力的危险，以及央行乐于让实际利率为负的程度——更像20世纪50年代。名义GDP和美国利润之间存在非常强的正相关性，”这位策略师写道。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞预计，2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5.1%，快于包括欧元区在内的世界其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Darby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，美国消费者、企业和政府（甚至可能还有银行）的支出是明年经济增长的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，杰富瑞表示，美国消费者拥有2.5万亿美元的超额储蓄，标普500公司拥有1.34万亿美元的现金和现金等价物总额，美国政府的财政刺激计划仍在展开——所有这些潜在资金都将有助于促进全球最大经济体明年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在2022年加息两次，并可能比预期更早地缩减资产购买，从而起到适度的阻力作用。杰富瑞表示：“然而，美国实际利率仍将处于深度负值。”实际利率根据通货膨胀进行调整。10月份消费者价格通胀率达到6.2%，为1990年以来最快增速，主要原因是能源价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.</p><p><blockquote>与明年相比，美国经济似乎有望在2021年以更快的速度增长5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> \"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“2022年将会很艰难，因为2021年是无法超越的。虽然基数效应自然会发挥作用，但从最近的ISM制造业来看，新订单和库存之间的差距开始缩小。”他指出服务业的趋势——美国经济的大部分——情况更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，标普500明年将突破5,000点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，标普500明年将突破5,000点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 13:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li>The S&P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook note Tuesday.</li> <li>Stocks will find support from further earnings growth and a massive amount of money to be spent by consumers, companies, and the US government.</li> <li>The economy should expand by 5.1% in 2022 but it will be \"tough\" to beat 5.4% growth in 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff57def304b09c05267f4d14938eb01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>杰富瑞(Jefferies)周二在一份股市展望报告中表示，标普500将把涨幅延续到2022年，达到5,000点。</li><li>股市将从进一步的盈利增长以及消费者、公司和美国政府的大量支出中获得支撑。</li><li>2022年经济应该会增长5.1%，但要超过2021年5.4%的增长将是“艰难的”。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊曼纽尔·杜南/法新社，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Numerous record highs have pushed the S&P 500 up by 25% during 2021, and the benchmark should advance to the 5,000 mark in 2022 on continued earnings growth for Corporate America and a massive amount of spending to support further US economic expansion, Jefferies said Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)周二表示，2021年，多项历史新高推动标准普尔500指数上涨25%，由于美国企业盈利持续增长以及支持美国经济进一步扩张的大量支出，该基准指数应在2022年升至5,000点大关。</blockquote></p><p> \"The nominal profit boom is set to be repeated in 2022. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)全球股票策略师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)在一份研究报告中表示：“名义利润繁荣将在2022年重演。名义GDP和美国国债收益率之间的差距将足够大，足以让企业获得超额利润。”明年将影响美国和全球股市。</blockquote></p><p> Surging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.</p><p><blockquote>企业盈利飙升推动了标普500今年的上涨，基准指数接近4,700点，并在此过程中创下了66个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Strong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>Darby写道，强大的定价能力可能有助于2021年约50%的年盈利增长看起来“相当合理”，并指出杰富瑞此前预计该标普500的盈利增长为41%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“从大流行后复苏中吸取的教训是，低估企业定价能力的危险，以及央行乐于让实际利率为负的程度——更像20世纪50年代。名义GDP和美国利润之间存在非常强的正相关性，”这位策略师写道。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞预计，2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5.1%，快于包括欧元区在内的世界其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Darby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，美国消费者、企业和政府（甚至可能还有银行）的支出是明年经济增长的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，杰富瑞表示，美国消费者拥有2.5万亿美元的超额储蓄，标普500公司拥有1.34万亿美元的现金和现金等价物总额，美国政府的财政刺激计划仍在展开——所有这些潜在资金都将有助于促进全球最大经济体明年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在2022年加息两次，并可能比预期更早地缩减资产购买，从而起到适度的阻力作用。杰富瑞表示：“然而，美国实际利率仍将处于深度负值。”实际利率根据通货膨胀进行调整。10月份消费者价格通胀率达到6.2%，为1990年以来最快增速，主要原因是能源价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.</p><p><blockquote>与明年相比，美国经济似乎有望在2021年以更快的速度增长5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> \"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“2022年将会很艰难，因为2021年是无法超越的。虽然基数效应自然会发挥作用，但从最近的ISM制造业来看，新订单和库存之间的差距开始缩小。”他指出服务业的趋势——美国经济的大部分——情况更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-5000-2022-earnings-gdp-spending-jefferies-2021-11\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-5000-2022-earnings-gdp-spending-jefferies-2021-11","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134119135","content_text":"The S&P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook note Tuesday.\nStocks will find support from further earnings growth and a massive amount of money to be spent by consumers, companies, and the US government.\nThe economy should expand by 5.1% in 2022 but it will be \"tough\" to beat 5.4% growth in 2021.\n\nEMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images\nNumerous record highs have pushed the S&P 500 up by 25% during 2021, and the benchmark should advance to the 5,000 mark in 2022 on continued earnings growth for Corporate America and a massive amount of spending to support further US economic expansion, Jefferies said Tuesday.\n\"The nominal profit boom is set to be repeated in 2022. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.\nSurging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.\nStrong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&P 500.\n\"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.\nJefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.\nDarby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.\nIn fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.\nThe Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.\nThe US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.\n\"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874359483"}
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