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2021-11-24

I can also predict 10k in a decade

The S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，明年标普500将突破 5,000</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":874359483,"tweetId":"874359483","gmtCreate":1637733541484,"gmtModify":1637733541772,"author":{"id":3581980965309451,"idStr":"3581980965309451","authorId":3581980965309451,"authorIdStr":"3581980965309451","name":"Eded","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a629a3014601072ee8dc2d151d1796","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":61,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I can also predict 10k in a decade&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I can also predict 10k in a decade&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"I can also predict 10k in a decade","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874359483","repostId":1134119135,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134119135","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637733474,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134119135?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 13:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，明年标普500将突破 5,000</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134119135","media":"Business Insider","summary":"The S&P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook no","content":"<ul> <li>The S&amp;P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook note Tuesday.</li> <li>Stocks will find support from further earnings growth and a massive amount of money to be spent by consumers, companies, and the US government.</li> <li>The economy should expand by 5.1% in 2022 but it will be \"tough\" to beat 5.4% growth in 2021.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff57def304b09c05267f4d14938eb01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>杰富瑞周二在一份股市展望报告中表示，标普500将把涨幅延长至 2022 年，并达到 5,000 点。</li><li>股市将从盈利的进一步增长以及消费者、公司和美国政府的巨额资金中获得支撑。</li><li>2022年经济应增长5.1%，但2021年要超过5.4%的增长率将是“艰难的”。</li></ul>EMMANUEL DUNAND/法新社，盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Numerous record highs have pushed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;up by 25% during 2021, and the benchmark should advance to the 5,000 mark in 2022 on continued earnings growth for Corporate America and a massive amount of spending to support further US economic expansion, Jefferies said Tuesday.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)周二表示，2021年，众多历史新高推动标普500上涨25%，由于美国企业盈利持续增长以及支持美国经济进一步扩张的大量支出，该基准应该会在2022年突破5000点大关。</blockquote> \"The nominal profit boom is set to be repeated in 2022. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.<blockquote>杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 全球股票策略师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 在一份研究报告中表示：“名义利润繁荣将在 2022 年重演。名义 GDP 和国债收益率之间的差距将很大，足以让公司赚取超额利润。”明年将影响我们和全球股市的因素。</blockquote> Surging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&amp;P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.<blockquote>企业盈利飙升推动了标准普尔 500 指数今年的上涨，该基准指数接近 4,700 点，并在此过程中创下 66 个历史新高。</blockquote> Strong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>达比写道，强劲的定价能力可能有助于 2021 年约 50% 的年度盈利增长看起来“相当合理”，并指出杰富瑞此前预计标普500的盈利增长 41%。</blockquote> \"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.<blockquote>“从大流行后的复苏中吸取的教训是低估企业定价权的危险，以及央行乐于将实际利率保持为负的程度——更像 20 世纪 50 年代。名义 GDP 和美国利润之间存在非常强的正相关性，”这位策略师写道。</blockquote> Jefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.<blockquote>杰富瑞预计2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5.1%，快于包括欧元区在内的世界其他地区。</blockquote> Darby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.<blockquote>达比指出，美国消费者、企业和政府（甚至可能还有银行）的支出是明年经济增长的驱动力。</blockquote> In fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&amp;P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.<blockquote>事实上，杰富瑞表示，美国消费者拥有 2.5 万亿美元的超额储蓄，标普500公司拥有 1.34 万亿美元的现金和现金等价物总额，美国政府的财政刺激计划仍在展开——所有这些潜在资金都将有助于促进明年世界最大经济体的增长。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October&nbsp;hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.<blockquote>美联储可能会在 2022 年两次加息，并可能比预期更早缩减资产购买规模，从而起到温和的阻力作用。“然而，美国实际利率仍将为负，”杰富瑞表示。实际利率根据通货膨胀进行调整。10 月份消费者价格通胀率达到 6.2%，为 1990 年以来的最快通胀率，这主要是由于能源价格加速上涨。</blockquote> The US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.<blockquote>美国经济似乎有望在2021年以5.4%的速度比明年更快的速度增长。</blockquote> \"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.<blockquote>“2022 年将是艰难的，因为 2021 年是不可超越的。虽然基数效应自然会发挥作用，但从最近的 ISM 制造业来看，新订单和库存之间的差距开始缩小，”达比表示，并指出服务业的趋势——美国经济的主体——情况更好。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，明年标普500将突破 5,000</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 will cross 5,000 next year, says Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞表示，明年标普500将突破 5,000</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBusiness Insider2021-11-24 13:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul> <li>The S&amp;P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook note Tuesday.</li> <li>Stocks will find support from further earnings growth and a massive amount of money to be spent by consumers, companies, and the US government.</li> <li>The economy should expand by 5.1% in 2022 but it will be \"tough\" to beat 5.4% growth in 2021.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff57def304b09c05267f4d14938eb01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>杰富瑞周二在一份股市展望报告中表示，标普500将把涨幅延长至 2022 年，并达到 5,000 点。</li><li>股市将从盈利的进一步增长以及消费者、公司和美国政府的巨额资金中获得支撑。</li><li>2022年经济应增长5.1%，但2021年要超过5.4%的增长率将是“艰难的”。</li></ul>EMMANUEL DUNAND/法新社，盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Numerous record highs have pushed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;up by 25% during 2021, and the benchmark should advance to the 5,000 mark in 2022 on continued earnings growth for Corporate America and a massive amount of spending to support further US economic expansion, Jefferies said Tuesday.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)周二表示，2021年，众多历史新高推动标普500上涨25%，由于美国企业盈利持续增长以及支持美国经济进一步扩张的大量支出，该基准应该会在2022年突破5000点大关。</blockquote> \"The nominal profit boom is set to be repeated in 2022. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.<blockquote>杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 全球股票策略师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 在一份研究报告中表示：“名义利润繁荣将在 2022 年重演。名义 GDP 和国债收益率之间的差距将很大，足以让公司赚取超额利润。”明年将影响我们和全球股市的因素。</blockquote> Surging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&amp;P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.<blockquote>企业盈利飙升推动了标准普尔 500 指数今年的上涨，该基准指数接近 4,700 点，并在此过程中创下 66 个历史新高。</blockquote> Strong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>达比写道，强劲的定价能力可能有助于 2021 年约 50% 的年度盈利增长看起来“相当合理”，并指出杰富瑞此前预计标普500的盈利增长 41%。</blockquote> \"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.<blockquote>“从大流行后的复苏中吸取的教训是低估企业定价权的危险，以及央行乐于将实际利率保持为负的程度——更像 20 世纪 50 年代。名义 GDP 和美国利润之间存在非常强的正相关性，”这位策略师写道。</blockquote> Jefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.<blockquote>杰富瑞预计2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5.1%，快于包括欧元区在内的世界其他地区。</blockquote> Darby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.<blockquote>达比指出，美国消费者、企业和政府（甚至可能还有银行）的支出是明年经济增长的驱动力。</blockquote> In fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&amp;P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.<blockquote>事实上，杰富瑞表示，美国消费者拥有 2.5 万亿美元的超额储蓄，标普500公司拥有 1.34 万亿美元的现金和现金等价物总额，美国政府的财政刺激计划仍在展开——所有这些潜在资金都将有助于促进明年世界最大经济体的增长。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October&nbsp;hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.<blockquote>美联储可能会在 2022 年两次加息，并可能比预期更早缩减资产购买规模，从而起到温和的阻力作用。“然而，美国实际利率仍将为负，”杰富瑞表示。实际利率根据通货膨胀进行调整。10 月份消费者价格通胀率达到 6.2%，为 1990 年以来的最快通胀率，这主要是由于能源价格加速上涨。</blockquote> The US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.<blockquote>美国经济似乎有望在2021年以5.4%的速度比明年更快的速度增长。</blockquote> \"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.<blockquote>“2022 年将是艰难的，因为 2021 年是不可超越的。虽然基数效应自然会发挥作用，但从最近的 ISM 制造业来看，新订单和库存之间的差距开始缩小，”达比表示，并指出服务业的趋势——美国经济的主体——情况更好。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-5000-2022-earnings-gdp-spending-jefferies-2021-11\">Business Insider</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-5000-2022-earnings-gdp-spending-jefferies-2021-11","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134119135","content_text":"The S&P 500 will extend gains into 2022 and reach 5,000, says Jefferies in a stock market outlook note Tuesday.\nStocks will find support from further earnings growth and a massive amount of money to be spent by consumers, companies, and the US government.\nThe economy should expand by 5.1% in 2022 but it will be \"tough\" to beat 5.4% growth in 2021.\n\nEMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images\nNumerous record highs have pushed the S&P 500 up by 25% during 2021, and the benchmark should advance to the 5,000 mark in 2022 on continued earnings growth for Corporate America and a massive amount of spending to support further US economic expansion, Jefferies said Tuesday.\n\"The nominal profit boom is set to be repeated in 2022. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury yields will be wide enough for companies to make excess profits,\" said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a research note looking at factors that will influence US and global stock markets next year.\nSurging corporate earnings have helped fuel the S&P 500's jump this year, with the benchmark nearing 4,700 and notching 66 record highs in the process.\nStrong pricing power could help annual earnings growth of about 50% in 2021 look \"quite plausible,\" Darby wrote, noting Jefferies had previously estimated 41% earnings growth for the S&P 500.\n\"The lesson learnt from the post-pandemic recovery is the danger of underestimating corporate pricing power and the degree to which central banks are happy to leave real interest rates negative – more like the 1950s. There is a very strong positive correlation between nominal GDP and US profits,\" the strategist wrote.\nJefferies foresees US gross domestic product expanding by 5.1% in 2022, faster than other parts of the world including the euro area.\nDarby cited spending from US consumers, corporations, and government — possibly even banks too — as drivers of economic growth next year.\nIn fact, Jefferies said American consumers have $2.5 trillion of excess savings, S&P 500 companies have gross cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 trillion, and the US government's fiscal stimulus plans are still unfolding — all potential funds that will help foster growth in the world's largest economy next year.\nThe Federal Reserve will likely act as a modest headwind by raising interest rates twice in 2022 and tapering its assets purchases possibly earlier than expected. \"However, US real interest rates will remain deeply negative,\" said Jefferies. Real interest rates are adjusted for inflation. Consumer price inflation in October hit 6.2%, the fastest rate since 1990, largely as energy prices accelerate.\nThe US economy appears on track to grow by a faster rate in 2021, at 5.4%, versus next year.\n\"2022 will be tough because 2021 is unsurpassable. While naturally base effects will play their part, a glance at the recent ISM manufacturing saw the gap between new orders and inventories starting to shrink,\" said Darby, noting the trend in services — the bulk of the US economy — was better.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874359483"}