Intel is n_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-25

Intel is not AMD

AMD Is Not Intel<blockquote>AMD不是英特尔</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":874437723,"tweetId":"874437723","gmtCreate":1637809813338,"gmtModify":1637809813513,"author":{"id":3555190890634141,"idStr":"3555190890634141","authorId":3555190890634141,"authorIdStr":"3555190890634141","name":"ERIC KHOO SG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b5481f56f8204f01f28c4192079f14","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":41,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Intel is not AMD</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Intel is not AMD</body></html>","text":"Intel is not AMD","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874437723","repostId":1199424115,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199424115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637809248,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199424115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Is Not Intel<blockquote>AMD不是英特尔</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199424115","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCurrently, AMD is valued at (nearly) Intel’s market cap. I will conclude that the relative ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Currently, AMD is valued at (nearly) Intel’s market cap. I will conclude that the relative valuation between both is untenable in the long term.</li> <li>Although some may assume AMD could grow into its valuation, in the logical scenario, Intel would gain a lot more market cap.</li> <li>Even using conservative estimates (and generous ones for AMD), Intel would still be 3x larger than AMD in 2030.</li> <li>With the best-case AMD scenario priced in, this means Intel has higher prospects for alpha. Intel stock price could quintuple to $1 trillion.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077f2eec667adea2ef9198f90c053170\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Andrei Berezovskii/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>目前，AMD的估值（接近）英特尔的市值。我的结论是，从长远来看，两者之间的相对估值是站不住脚的。</li><li>尽管有些人可能认为AMD的估值可能会增长，但在合乎逻辑的情况下，英特尔将获得更多的市值。</li><li>即使使用保守的估计（以及对AMD的慷慨估计），到2030年，英特尔的规模仍将是AMD的3倍。</li><li>随着AMD最佳情况的定价，这意味着英特尔对alpha有更高的前景。英特尔股价可能上涨五倍，达到1万亿美元。</li></ul>安德烈·别列佐夫斯基/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> AMD (AMD) is now valued at nearly 1x Intel's (INTC) value. Here, I will put this valuation to the test. Specifically, I will take a long-term stance to determine whether they can either expand their valuation (in Intel's case), or grow into it (in AMD's case).<blockquote>AMD(AMD)目前的估值几乎是英特尔(INTC)的1倍。在这里，我将对这个估值进行测试。具体来说，我将采取长期立场来确定他们是否可以扩大估值（就英特尔而言），或者成长为估值（就AMD而言）。</blockquote> As the title already revealed, I do not believe that AMD could ever really become the size of Intel. Although on the surface, Intel and AMD may look like similar companies with similar products, ultimately Intel's scope is just so much wider, covering 5G, IoT, the foundry market and autonomous driving. All of those are important segments which AMD has no investments in.<blockquote>正如标题所揭示的，我不相信AMD真的能达到英特尔的规模。虽然从表面上看，英特尔和AMD可能看起来像是拥有类似产品的类似公司，但最终英特尔的范围要广泛得多，涵盖了5G、物联网、代工市场和自动驾驶。所有这些都是AMD没有投资的重要领域。</blockquote> As such, the current relative valuation of both companies seems untenable in the long term. Although there is a likelihood that AMD could grow into its valuation, for the relative valuation to become more reflective of the underlying reality, I mainly see Intel growing much larger. This is because its valuation has become so compressed given the failures of prior management.<blockquote>因此，从长远来看，两家公司目前的相对估值似乎站不住脚。尽管AMD有可能达到其估值，但为了使相对估值更能反映潜在现实，我主要认为英特尔会变得更大。这是因为考虑到之前管理层的失败，其估值已经被压缩。</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> Over a year ago, when AMD reached the $100B mark, I claimed that&nbsp;AMD was not half an Intel&nbsp;as the stock had quickly surged from the $50s to $80s (for a large part due to Intel's 7nm delay). This article will update that evaluation.<blockquote>一年多前，当AMD达到1000亿美元大关时，我声称AMD还不是英特尔的一半，因为该股已迅速从50多美元飙升至80多美元（很大程度上是由于英特尔的7纳米延迟）。本文将更新该评估。</blockquote> Nevertheless, earlier this year, after AMD traded sideways for nearly a year, I&nbsp;called AMD undervalued. The stock has rallied 50% since that call.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年早些时候，在AMD横盘近一年后，我称AMD被低估。自那次看涨期权以来，该股已上涨50%。</blockquote> AMD thesis: flawed and limited<blockquote>AMD论文：有缺陷且有限</blockquote> Let's start with the AMD thesis. This is actually the easiest part (compared to the financials/valuation). Clearly, the main thesis for AMD remains to take market share from Nvidia (NVDA) in graphics and Intel in CPUs. As I wrote in May:<blockquote>先说AMD论文。这实际上是最简单的部分（与财务/估值相比）。显然，AMD的主要论点仍然是在图形领域从Nvidia(NVDA)和CPU领域从Intel手中夺取市场份额。正如我在五月份所写的：</blockquote> However, what most will really care about remains unknown. How much Ryzen did AMD sell? How much Radeon? What is the split between console and Epyc sales? AMD doesn't want investors to know. CPU: $30B revenue target<blockquote>然而，大多数人真正关心的是什么仍然未知。AMD卖了多少锐龙？多少镭龙？游戏机和Epyc销量的比例是多少？AMD不想让投资者知道。CPU：$30B收入目标</blockquote> On the CPU side, my outlook is neutral to slightly bearish. As I have discussed previously, Intel's upcoming portfolio in 2022 will be such a major upgrade (Intel calls it its biggest update in a decade) that I previously&nbsp;argued that the AMD threat for Intel would be finished&nbsp;going forward. Additionally, as Intel said on the recent Q3 call, in these times of shortages, capacity is destiny, and I regard Intel as better-positioned to provide supply than AMD, which is reliant on TSMC (TSM).<blockquote>在CPU方面，我的前景是中性到小幅看跌。正如我之前所讨论的，英特尔即将在2022年推出的产品组合将是一次重大升级（英特尔评级是十年来最大的更新），以至于我之前认为AMD对英特尔的威胁将在未来结束。此外，正如英特尔在最近的第三季度看涨期权中所说，在短缺时期，产能就是命运，我认为英特尔比依赖台积电(TSM)的AMD更有能力提供供应。</blockquote> However, a few details prevent me from becoming bearish just yet. Although Intel's PC roadmap is rock solid, I remain puzzled by Intel's execution and progress in the data center. (For example, Meteor Lake was delayed by about 1-2 quarters compared to Granite Rapids' delay of well over a year.) Additionally, although it has taken several years, by now, one has to recognize that AMD has obtained critical momentum and is seen as a legitimate alternative to Intel. Since even now the majority of Intel's data center revenue still comes from 14nm parts, this momentum may continue for a while.<blockquote>然而，一些细节阻止了我现在变得看跌。尽管英特尔的PC路线图坚如磐石，但我仍然对英特尔在数据中心的执行力和进展感到困惑。（例如，Meteor Lake推迟了大约1-2个季度，而Granite Rapids推迟了一年多。）此外，尽管花了几年时间，但到目前为止，人们必须认识到AMD已经获得了关键势头，并被视为英特尔的合法替代品。由于即使是现在，英特尔的大部分数据中心收入仍然来自14纳米部件，这种势头可能还会持续一段时间。</blockquote> Hence, I see no reason to doubt Pat Gelsinger's statement that he is targeting 2024-2025 before the results of the new investments will become visible. In that longer-term timeline, the current shortages will also be relegated to just a temporary note in history.<blockquote>因此，我认为没有理由怀疑帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)的声明，即在新投资的结果显现之前，他的目标是2024-2025年。从长远来看，当前的短缺也将成为历史上的暂时记录。</blockquote> In the neutral case, I would expect AMD's market share to steadily increase to ~30%. If we assume the PC + data center TAM grows to $100B, then AMD could reach $30B in revenue over time. In the worst-case, Intel regaining leadership could mean that AMD may again become the value brand.<blockquote>在中性情况下，我预计AMD的市场份额将稳步增加至30%左右。如果我们假设PC+数据中心TAM增长到$100B，那么随着时间的推移，AMD的收入可能会达到$300B。在最坏的情况下，英特尔重新获得领导地位可能意味着AMD可能再次成为价值品牌。</blockquote> GPU: $10B revenue target<blockquote>GPU：10B美元收入目标</blockquote> On the GPU side, I am slightly more bullish since I see Nvidia's market share position as untenable. AMD's latest accelerator seems about as powerful as Intel's upcoming 100 billion transistor 5nm Ponte Vecchio behemoth (which is over 2x Nvidia's A100 in theoretical performance).<blockquote>在GPU方面，我稍微乐观一些，因为我认为英伟达的市场份额地位站不住脚。AMD最新的加速器似乎与英特尔即将推出的1000亿晶体管5纳米Ponte Vecchio庞然大物一样强大（理论性能是英伟达A100的2倍以上）。</blockquote> However, one more invisible issue in the data center may be software (optimizations). Nevertheless, I do not quite subscribe to the view that CUDA is the holy grail, since, for example, AI is being done with vendor-agnostic frameworks such as TensorFlow. Still, taking market share from Nvidia may prove to be difficult after all.<blockquote>然而，数据中心中另一个不可见的问题可能是软件（优化）。然而，我不太同意CUDA是圣杯的观点，因为，例如，人工智能是用与供应商无关的框架（如TensorFlow）来完成的。尽管如此，从英伟达手中夺取市场份额可能终究很困难。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Overall, then, most would assume that AMD's growth markets such as gaming and data center will continue to grow in the long term, and some would argue AMD could grow faster than the overall market as well. Combining the above CPU estimate with consoles and graphics, then AMD may perhaps a bit more than double its revenue to $40B over time. If we assume AMD reaches this level in 2030, then it would be about two to three decades behind Intel.<blockquote>总体而言，大多数人会认为AMD的游戏和数据中心等增长市场将长期持续增长，有些人会认为AMD的增长速度也可能快于整体市场。将上述CPU估计与游戏机和显卡相结合，随着时间的推移，AMD的收入可能会增加一倍多，达到400亿美元。如果我们假设AMD在2030年达到这一水平，那么它将落后英特尔大约二三十年。</blockquote> Intel thesis: undervalued and underestimated<blockquote>英特尔论文：被低估和低估</blockquote> In the last several years, although its financials have been decent, according to general consensus, Intel has fallen behind in technology and now trades at a measly single-digit P/E. However, as I see it, Intel is going nowhere. And this is especially true now that Intel finally has a capable CEO that has gotten the greenlight from the board to throw all its funding at innovation (rather than stock buybacks). And this is exactly what Intel will be doing. As I recently argued, the stock market generally does not value a company based on its roadmap, which means investors have ample time to get on board.<blockquote>在过去的几年里，尽管英特尔的财务状况不错，但根据普遍的共识，英特尔在技术方面已经落后，现在的市盈率只有区区一位数。然而，在我看来，英特尔将一事无成。现在尤其如此，因为英特尔终于有了一位有能力的首席执行官，他得到了董事会的批准，可以将所有资金投入到创新（而不是股票回购）。这正是英特尔将要做的。正如我最近所说，股市通常不会根据公司的路线图对其进行估值，这意味着投资者有充足的时间参与其中。</blockquote> CPU<blockquote>中央处理器</blockquote> Indeed, these roadmaps imply Intel could legitimately turn around in the next three to four years. As argued in previous section, Intel seems pretty safe on the PC side. In the data center, Intel has hinted that Granite Rapids (scheduled for 2023 after the aforementioned delay) will contain 2x as many cores as Sapphire Rapids, which means that Intel could leapfrog AMD (which will have a 96-core CPU then) with a 112-core CPU.<blockquote>事实上，这些路线图意味着英特尔可以在未来三到四年内合法地扭亏为盈。正如上一节所讨论的，英特尔在PC方面似乎相当安全。在数据中心，英特尔暗示Granite Rapids（在上述延迟之后计划于2023年推出）的内核数量将是Sapphire Rapids的2倍，这意味着英特尔可以超越AMD（届时将拥有96核CPU）112核CPU。</blockquote> In summary, Intel will get its roadmap back on track over the next few years, and will hence maintain its market share going forward, well before AMD could get anywhere near the 40% or more market share that AMD really needs to justify its valuation.<blockquote>总而言之，英特尔将在未来几年内让其路线图重回正轨，并因此在AMD能够接近AMD证明其估值合理所需的40%或更多市场份额之前保持其市场份额。</blockquote> Other<blockquote>其他的</blockquote> However, the main reason Intel could deserve a premium valuation is because it is targeting a market that is simply so much larger than AMD's. In the article where I claimed AMD is not half an Intel, I described Intel as a semiconductor conglomerate. In the past, I have discussed&nbsp;5G,robotaxis&nbsp;and the&nbsp;foundry business. Intel also has some smaller growth businesses with Optane memory and IoT, which grew over 50% last quarter to a new record.<blockquote>然而，英特尔值得获得溢价估值的主要原因是因为它的目标市场比AMD大得多。在我声称AMD不是半个英特尔的文章中，我将英特尔描述为一家半导体集团。过去，我讨论过5G、机器人出租车和代工业务。英特尔还拥有一些规模较小的Optane内存和物联网业务，上季度增长超过50%，创下新纪录。</blockquote> I have previously estimated Mobileye could become as large as the data center or PC, for example. Pat Gelsinger also added an additional wildcard with the&nbsp;Intel Foundry Services business. I have been closely&nbsp;monitoring progress in Intel and TSMC's roadmaps, and in the most bullish case, Intel could start to take significant market share if it really achieves its target to overtake TSMC by 2025. This would be similar to how AMD has managed to substantially increase its revenue in the last few years by taking market share from Intel; in this case, Intel might start to take significant share (and hence revenue) from TSMC.<blockquote>例如，我之前估计Mobileye可能会变得像数据中心或PC一样大。Pat Gelsinger还为英特尔代工服务业务添加了一个额外的通配符。我一直在密切关注英特尔和台积电路线图的进展，在最乐观的情况下，如果英特尔真的实现到2025年超越台积电的目标，它可能会开始占据重要的市场份额。这类似于AMD在过去几年中通过从英特尔手中夺取市场份额来大幅增加收入；在这种情况下，英特尔可能会开始从台积电手中夺取大量份额（以及收入）。</blockquote> As such, Intel has&nbsp;exposure to all major growth areas in semiconductors: cloud,AI,graphics, 5G, IoT, foundry and autonomous driving. This means Intel competes in about 2x as many markets as AMD. Hence, to approximation, AMD cannot be worth even half as much as Intel (without having &gt;50% market share).<blockquote>因此，英特尔涉足半导体的所有主要增长领域：云、人工智能、图形、5G、物联网、代工和自动驾驶。这意味着英特尔的竞争市场大约是AMD的两倍。因此，近似地说，AMD的价值甚至没有英特尔的一半（没有超过50%的市场份额）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> For some more concrete numbers, Intel discussed its long-term growth target at the recent Q3 call (10-12%). Intel was a bit ambiguous about when it would start to grow at that rate, so for simplicity, I will assume that Intel will be $80B in 2025 and then grow at a 5-10% CAGR through 2030. In that scenario, Intel will generate $100-130B by 2030. This is 2.5x to 3.3x more than my estimate for AMD.<blockquote>对于一些更具体的数字，英特尔在最近的第三季度看涨期权（10-12%）中讨论了其长期增长目标。英特尔对于何时开始以这个速度增长有点模糊，所以为了简单起见，我假设英特尔在2025年的规模将达到800亿美元，然后到2030年以5-10%的复合年增长率增长。在这种情况下，英特尔到2030年将创造100-1300亿美元的收入。这比我对AMD的估计高出2.5倍到3.3倍。</blockquote> Case study: Intel first to 3nm<blockquote>案例研究：英特尔率先迈向3nm</blockquote> As I have&nbsp;discussed in previous articles, Intel has been rumored since 2020 to be one of the first to transition to TSMC (TSM) 3nm. The latest rumor has provided further details about this: Intel would produce the GPU tile in its Meteor Lake CPU at TSMC.<blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所讨论的，自2020年以来，英特尔一直被传言是首批过渡到台积电(TSM)3nm的公司之一。最新的传言提供了这方面的进一步细节：英特尔将在台积电的Meteor Lake CPU中生产GPU切片。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15ad7d5e6a6fb4e85853074e7c5618c\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> For AMD, the best-case seems about priced in, trading at a ~50x P/E, despite that going forward AMD will not hold any significant/differentiated technology proposition anymore (as was the case when Intel was stuck on 14nm).<blockquote>对于AMD来说，最好的情况似乎是定价，市盈率约为50倍，尽管未来AMD将不再拥有任何重要/差异化的技术主张（就像英特尔被困在14纳米时的情况一样）。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Intel&nbsp;used its recent Q3&nbsp;to provide investors with the financial reality of Pat Gelsinger's comeback plan, which will see gross margin dip to 51-53%. This has led the stock price to sink to single-digit P/E. As such, one could claim that Intel is currently being priced for the worst-case scenario: Intel will be spending a ton (over $40B annually in R&amp;D and capex), and the market does not believe Intel will see any returns from these investments.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔利用最近的第三季度向投资者提供了帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)复出计划的财务现实，该计划的毛利率将降至51-53%。这导致股价跌至个位数市盈率。因此，有人可能会说，英特尔目前的定价是针对最坏情况：英特尔将花费大量资金（每年超过40B美元的研发和资本支出），而市场不相信英特尔会从这些投资中获得任何回报。</blockquote> Nevertheless, in the best-case, Intel will continue to steadily increase revenue from its current businesses (as it has done from 2015-2020) while building significant new businesses such as Xe GPUs, MoovitAV (robotaxis), Mobileye Drive (self-driving consumer vehicles) and Intel Foundry Services. Additionally, as Intel executes to regain industry technology leadership, then it will again be able to get back to industry-leading ASPs, resulting in both revenue and gross margin upside.<blockquote>尽管如此，在最好的情况下，英特尔将继续稳步增加其当前业务的收入（就像它在2015-2020年所做的那样），同时建立重要的新业务，如Xe GPU、MoovitAV（机器人出租车）、Mobileye Drive（自动驾驶）消费汽车）和英特尔代工服务。此外，随着英特尔努力重新获得行业技术领先地位，它将能够再次回到行业领先的平均售价，从而带来收入和毛利率的上升。</blockquote> Of course, the proof would ultimately be in the pudding: Intel would have to show the market (1) that it can again execute reliably on its leadership process roadmap and hence get its gross margin back up, and (2) that it can grow its revenue at the expense of its competitors (AMD, Nvidia, TSMC). To that end, the Qualcomm foundry win for Intel's 20A node may be seen as a small first step. Nevertheless, for now, the most promising sign may be&nbsp;the amount of veterans that have joined or rejoined Intel&nbsp;in the wake of Pat Gelsinger CEO appointment.<blockquote>当然，证据最终会在布丁中：英特尔必须向市场展示（1）它可以再次可靠地执行其领导流程路线图，从而恢复其毛利率，以及（2）它可以以牺牲竞争对手（AMD、英伟达、台积电）为代价来增长其收入。为此，英特尔20A节点的高通代工胜利可能被视为一小步。尽管如此，就目前而言，最有希望的迹象可能是在帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)被任命为首席执行官后加入或重新加入英特尔的退伍军人数量。</blockquote> To put this in some more numbers, in previous sections, I estimated AMD could reach $40B by 2030 compared to Intel's ~$120B. Under the assumption that, a decade from now, nothing will be visible anymore from Intel's current issues, one could argue that Intel, by virtue of being an IDM, most likely will have improved its margins back to ~60% (higher than AMD).<blockquote>为了更多地说明这一点，在前面的章节中，我估计AMD到2030年可能会达到400亿美元，而英特尔的销售额约为120亿美元。假设十年后，英特尔当前的问题将不再可见，人们可能会说，英特尔凭借其IDM的地位，很可能会将其利润率提高到60%左右（高于AMD）。</blockquote> As such, one could argue that Intel should actually be valued higher than AMD. In that case, the relative valuation between AMD and Intel might expand (in favor of Intel) from the current 1x to (at least) 3x (based on 3x the revenue). This would result in a market cap for Intel of up to $1 trillion. Of course, this is under the assumption that there would be no further missteps in the business that would continue to deflate Intel's valuation like it currently is.<blockquote>因此，有人可能会说英特尔的估值实际上应该高于AMD。在这种情况下，AMD和英特尔之间的相对估值可能会从目前的1倍扩大到（至少）3倍（基于3倍的收入）（有利于英特尔）。这将导致英特尔的市值高达1万亿美元。当然，这是在假设该业务不会出现进一步的失误，从而继续像目前那样压低英特尔的估值。</blockquote> In the table below, the AMD valuation is based on either AMD growing into its current valuation, or further expanding over time in line with revenue.<blockquote>在下表中，AMD估值基于AMD增长到当前估值，或者随着时间的推移根据收入进一步扩张。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de65ceefd77782409090b851f55ab8a\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lastly, for comparison, Tesla (TSLA) has now grown to a record $1 trillion valuation, despite FSD still being merely L2 and in beta while Intel is starting its L4 robotaxi business next year. Tesla also has lower revenue and 20 points lower gross margin. As discussed previously, Intel seems better positioned for autonomous driving than Tesla:Uber, Intel Will Dominate Autonomous Driving. Legions of investors have ascribed enormous valuations to Tesla's non-existing robotaxi business, so from that view, a $1 trillion Intel wouldn't be all that far-fetched.<blockquote>最后，相比之下，特斯拉(TSLA)的估值现已增长至创纪录的1万亿美元，尽管FSD仍仅处于L2级且处于测试阶段，而英特尔将于明年启动L4机器人出租车业务。特斯拉的收入也较低，毛利率也下降了20个百分点。如前所述，英特尔似乎比特斯拉更适合自动驾驶：优步，英特尔将主导自动驾驶。大批投资者将巨大的估值归因于特斯拉不存在的机器人出租车业务，因此从这个角度来看，1万亿美元的英特尔并不是那么牵强。</blockquote> The tide is turning<blockquote>潮流正在转向</blockquote> The tide seems to be turning among a wider range of investors and analysts, as discussed for example on Seeking Alpha:<blockquote>正如Seeking Alpha上所讨论的那样，更广泛的投资者和分析师的潮流似乎正在发生转变：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095f524ab6e6b4c9ca0c6d5996e7913d\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Alder Lake<blockquote>阿尔德湖</blockquote> I had discussed Alder Lake in many articles before its launch, and now the reviews are available. Most investors doubted that Alder Lake would be game-changing for Intel:Intel Stock: Alder Lake Looks Like a Game-Changer(NASDAQ:INTC). However, the reviews are completely unambiguous: Intel is back. Especially, the Core i5 has received universal praise (vs. Ryzen 5).<blockquote>在Alder Lake发布之前，我已经在许多文章中讨论过它，现在评论已经出来了。大多数投资者怀疑Alder Lake是否会改变英特尔的游戏规则：英特尔股票：Alder Lake看起来像是一个游戏规则改变者（纳斯达克：INTC）。然而，评论是完全明确的：英特尔回来了。尤其是酷睿i5获得了普遍好评（对比锐龙5）。</blockquote> When averaging out dozens of benchmarks, it can be seen that each Alder Lake CPU is faster than the one it competes against (note, for example, the Core i5 being nearly on-par with Ryzen 7):<blockquote>当对几十个基准测试进行平均时，可以看到每个Alder Lake CPU都比它的竞争对手更快（例如，请注意，Core i5几乎与Ryzen 7相当）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ff2a204f9d6cf0d5a14dfcb44b8eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Alder Lake's strongest performance:<blockquote>Alder Lake最强表现：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6739112b677871da545775daada51a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"755\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> In my recent&nbsp;discussion of Intel's Q3 results, I compared Intel a few times against AMD, as I see Intel capable of a similar comeback (even on a bigger scale), and I elaborated on that topic here. To be specific, given Intel's issues in the recent past, the company has become the underdog, similar to AMD just half a decade ago.<blockquote>在我最近对英特尔第三季度业绩的讨论中，我多次将英特尔与AMD进行比较，因为我认为英特尔有能力实现类似的卷土重来（甚至在更大的规模上），我在这里详细阐述了这个主题。具体来说，鉴于英特尔最近的问题，该公司已经成为失败者，就像五年前的AMD一样。</blockquote> Nevertheless, by revenue and net income, Intel is still by far the world's biggest logic semiconductor company. This means Intel has ample resources to get itself back together, and it currently also has a CEO that is doing exactly that. If a near-bankrupt AMD could become what it is today (nearly Intel's valuation), then investors might perhaps give a second thought about what Intel could become if it finally starts to turn that combined $40B annual R&amp;D and capex budget (more than double AMD's annual revenue) into results.<blockquote>尽管如此，按收入和净利润计算，英特尔仍然是迄今为止全球最大的逻辑半导体公司。这意味着英特尔有充足的资源来重新振作起来，而且它目前也有一位首席执行官正在这样做。如果濒临破产的AMD能够变成今天的样子（接近英特尔的估值），那么如果英特尔最终开始将400亿美元的年度研发和资本支出预算（超过AMD的两倍）变成结果，投资者可能会重新考虑英特尔会变成什么样子。</blockquote> Even when using conservative growth estimates for Intel and generous ones for AMD, in this article, I arrived at the conclusion that Intel in 2030 should still be about 3x larger than AMD. Hence, as the title stated, AMD is not three-quarters Intel. If one would then translate that difference into market cap, then Intel could become well over $1 trillion in market cap.<blockquote>即使对英特尔使用保守的增长估计，对AMD使用慷慨的增长估计，在本文中，我得出的结论是，2030年的英特尔仍应是AMD的3倍左右。因此，正如标题所述，AMD不是四分之三的英特尔。如果将这种差异转化为市值，那么英特尔的市值可能会远远超过1万亿美元。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Is Not Intel<blockquote>AMD不是英特尔</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Is Not Intel<blockquote>AMD不是英特尔</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-25 11:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Currently, AMD is valued at (nearly) Intel’s market cap. I will conclude that the relative valuation between both is untenable in the long term.</li> <li>Although some may assume AMD could grow into its valuation, in the logical scenario, Intel would gain a lot more market cap.</li> <li>Even using conservative estimates (and generous ones for AMD), Intel would still be 3x larger than AMD in 2030.</li> <li>With the best-case AMD scenario priced in, this means Intel has higher prospects for alpha. Intel stock price could quintuple to $1 trillion.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077f2eec667adea2ef9198f90c053170\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Andrei Berezovskii/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>目前，AMD的估值（接近）英特尔的市值。我的结论是，从长远来看，两者之间的相对估值是站不住脚的。</li><li>尽管有些人可能认为AMD的估值可能会增长，但在合乎逻辑的情况下，英特尔将获得更多的市值。</li><li>即使使用保守的估计（以及对AMD的慷慨估计），到2030年，英特尔的规模仍将是AMD的3倍。</li><li>随着AMD最佳情况的定价，这意味着英特尔对alpha有更高的前景。英特尔股价可能上涨五倍，达到1万亿美元。</li></ul>安德烈·别列佐夫斯基/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> AMD (AMD) is now valued at nearly 1x Intel's (INTC) value. Here, I will put this valuation to the test. Specifically, I will take a long-term stance to determine whether they can either expand their valuation (in Intel's case), or grow into it (in AMD's case).<blockquote>AMD(AMD)目前的估值几乎是英特尔(INTC)的1倍。在这里，我将对这个估值进行测试。具体来说，我将采取长期立场来确定他们是否可以扩大估值（就英特尔而言），或者成长为估值（就AMD而言）。</blockquote> As the title already revealed, I do not believe that AMD could ever really become the size of Intel. Although on the surface, Intel and AMD may look like similar companies with similar products, ultimately Intel's scope is just so much wider, covering 5G, IoT, the foundry market and autonomous driving. All of those are important segments which AMD has no investments in.<blockquote>正如标题所揭示的，我不相信AMD真的能达到英特尔的规模。虽然从表面上看，英特尔和AMD可能看起来像是拥有类似产品的类似公司，但最终英特尔的范围要广泛得多，涵盖了5G、物联网、代工市场和自动驾驶。所有这些都是AMD没有投资的重要领域。</blockquote> As such, the current relative valuation of both companies seems untenable in the long term. Although there is a likelihood that AMD could grow into its valuation, for the relative valuation to become more reflective of the underlying reality, I mainly see Intel growing much larger. This is because its valuation has become so compressed given the failures of prior management.<blockquote>因此，从长远来看，两家公司目前的相对估值似乎站不住脚。尽管AMD有可能达到其估值，但为了使相对估值更能反映潜在现实，我主要认为英特尔会变得更大。这是因为考虑到之前管理层的失败，其估值已经被压缩。</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> Over a year ago, when AMD reached the $100B mark, I claimed that&nbsp;AMD was not half an Intel&nbsp;as the stock had quickly surged from the $50s to $80s (for a large part due to Intel's 7nm delay). This article will update that evaluation.<blockquote>一年多前，当AMD达到1000亿美元大关时，我声称AMD还不是英特尔的一半，因为该股已迅速从50多美元飙升至80多美元（很大程度上是由于英特尔的7纳米延迟）。本文将更新该评估。</blockquote> Nevertheless, earlier this year, after AMD traded sideways for nearly a year, I&nbsp;called AMD undervalued. The stock has rallied 50% since that call.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年早些时候，在AMD横盘近一年后，我称AMD被低估。自那次看涨期权以来，该股已上涨50%。</blockquote> AMD thesis: flawed and limited<blockquote>AMD论文：有缺陷且有限</blockquote> Let's start with the AMD thesis. This is actually the easiest part (compared to the financials/valuation). Clearly, the main thesis for AMD remains to take market share from Nvidia (NVDA) in graphics and Intel in CPUs. As I wrote in May:<blockquote>先说AMD论文。这实际上是最简单的部分（与财务/估值相比）。显然，AMD的主要论点仍然是在图形领域从Nvidia(NVDA)和CPU领域从Intel手中夺取市场份额。正如我在五月份所写的：</blockquote> However, what most will really care about remains unknown. How much Ryzen did AMD sell? How much Radeon? What is the split between console and Epyc sales? AMD doesn't want investors to know. CPU: $30B revenue target<blockquote>然而，大多数人真正关心的是什么仍然未知。AMD卖了多少锐龙？多少镭龙？游戏机和Epyc销量的比例是多少？AMD不想让投资者知道。CPU：$30B收入目标</blockquote> On the CPU side, my outlook is neutral to slightly bearish. As I have discussed previously, Intel's upcoming portfolio in 2022 will be such a major upgrade (Intel calls it its biggest update in a decade) that I previously&nbsp;argued that the AMD threat for Intel would be finished&nbsp;going forward. Additionally, as Intel said on the recent Q3 call, in these times of shortages, capacity is destiny, and I regard Intel as better-positioned to provide supply than AMD, which is reliant on TSMC (TSM).<blockquote>在CPU方面，我的前景是中性到小幅看跌。正如我之前所讨论的，英特尔即将在2022年推出的产品组合将是一次重大升级（英特尔评级是十年来最大的更新），以至于我之前认为AMD对英特尔的威胁将在未来结束。此外，正如英特尔在最近的第三季度看涨期权中所说，在短缺时期，产能就是命运，我认为英特尔比依赖台积电(TSM)的AMD更有能力提供供应。</blockquote> However, a few details prevent me from becoming bearish just yet. Although Intel's PC roadmap is rock solid, I remain puzzled by Intel's execution and progress in the data center. (For example, Meteor Lake was delayed by about 1-2 quarters compared to Granite Rapids' delay of well over a year.) Additionally, although it has taken several years, by now, one has to recognize that AMD has obtained critical momentum and is seen as a legitimate alternative to Intel. Since even now the majority of Intel's data center revenue still comes from 14nm parts, this momentum may continue for a while.<blockquote>然而，一些细节阻止了我现在变得看跌。尽管英特尔的PC路线图坚如磐石，但我仍然对英特尔在数据中心的执行力和进展感到困惑。（例如，Meteor Lake推迟了大约1-2个季度，而Granite Rapids推迟了一年多。）此外，尽管花了几年时间，但到目前为止，人们必须认识到AMD已经获得了关键势头，并被视为英特尔的合法替代品。由于即使是现在，英特尔的大部分数据中心收入仍然来自14纳米部件，这种势头可能还会持续一段时间。</blockquote> Hence, I see no reason to doubt Pat Gelsinger's statement that he is targeting 2024-2025 before the results of the new investments will become visible. In that longer-term timeline, the current shortages will also be relegated to just a temporary note in history.<blockquote>因此，我认为没有理由怀疑帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)的声明，即在新投资的结果显现之前，他的目标是2024-2025年。从长远来看，当前的短缺也将成为历史上的暂时记录。</blockquote> In the neutral case, I would expect AMD's market share to steadily increase to ~30%. If we assume the PC + data center TAM grows to $100B, then AMD could reach $30B in revenue over time. In the worst-case, Intel regaining leadership could mean that AMD may again become the value brand.<blockquote>在中性情况下，我预计AMD的市场份额将稳步增加至30%左右。如果我们假设PC+数据中心TAM增长到$100B，那么随着时间的推移，AMD的收入可能会达到$300B。在最坏的情况下，英特尔重新获得领导地位可能意味着AMD可能再次成为价值品牌。</blockquote> GPU: $10B revenue target<blockquote>GPU：10B美元收入目标</blockquote> On the GPU side, I am slightly more bullish since I see Nvidia's market share position as untenable. AMD's latest accelerator seems about as powerful as Intel's upcoming 100 billion transistor 5nm Ponte Vecchio behemoth (which is over 2x Nvidia's A100 in theoretical performance).<blockquote>在GPU方面，我稍微乐观一些，因为我认为英伟达的市场份额地位站不住脚。AMD最新的加速器似乎与英特尔即将推出的1000亿晶体管5纳米Ponte Vecchio庞然大物一样强大（理论性能是英伟达A100的2倍以上）。</blockquote> However, one more invisible issue in the data center may be software (optimizations). Nevertheless, I do not quite subscribe to the view that CUDA is the holy grail, since, for example, AI is being done with vendor-agnostic frameworks such as TensorFlow. Still, taking market share from Nvidia may prove to be difficult after all.<blockquote>然而，数据中心中另一个不可见的问题可能是软件（优化）。然而，我不太同意CUDA是圣杯的观点，因为，例如，人工智能是用与供应商无关的框架（如TensorFlow）来完成的。尽管如此，从英伟达手中夺取市场份额可能终究很困难。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Overall, then, most would assume that AMD's growth markets such as gaming and data center will continue to grow in the long term, and some would argue AMD could grow faster than the overall market as well. Combining the above CPU estimate with consoles and graphics, then AMD may perhaps a bit more than double its revenue to $40B over time. If we assume AMD reaches this level in 2030, then it would be about two to three decades behind Intel.<blockquote>总体而言，大多数人会认为AMD的游戏和数据中心等增长市场将长期持续增长，有些人会认为AMD的增长速度也可能快于整体市场。将上述CPU估计与游戏机和显卡相结合，随着时间的推移，AMD的收入可能会增加一倍多，达到400亿美元。如果我们假设AMD在2030年达到这一水平，那么它将落后英特尔大约二三十年。</blockquote> Intel thesis: undervalued and underestimated<blockquote>英特尔论文：被低估和低估</blockquote> In the last several years, although its financials have been decent, according to general consensus, Intel has fallen behind in technology and now trades at a measly single-digit P/E. However, as I see it, Intel is going nowhere. And this is especially true now that Intel finally has a capable CEO that has gotten the greenlight from the board to throw all its funding at innovation (rather than stock buybacks). And this is exactly what Intel will be doing. As I recently argued, the stock market generally does not value a company based on its roadmap, which means investors have ample time to get on board.<blockquote>在过去的几年里，尽管英特尔的财务状况不错，但根据普遍的共识，英特尔在技术方面已经落后，现在的市盈率只有区区一位数。然而，在我看来，英特尔将一事无成。现在尤其如此，因为英特尔终于有了一位有能力的首席执行官，他得到了董事会的批准，可以将所有资金投入到创新（而不是股票回购）。这正是英特尔将要做的。正如我最近所说，股市通常不会根据公司的路线图对其进行估值，这意味着投资者有充足的时间参与其中。</blockquote> CPU<blockquote>中央处理器</blockquote> Indeed, these roadmaps imply Intel could legitimately turn around in the next three to four years. As argued in previous section, Intel seems pretty safe on the PC side. In the data center, Intel has hinted that Granite Rapids (scheduled for 2023 after the aforementioned delay) will contain 2x as many cores as Sapphire Rapids, which means that Intel could leapfrog AMD (which will have a 96-core CPU then) with a 112-core CPU.<blockquote>事实上，这些路线图意味着英特尔可以在未来三到四年内合法地扭亏为盈。正如上一节所讨论的，英特尔在PC方面似乎相当安全。在数据中心，英特尔暗示Granite Rapids（在上述延迟之后计划于2023年推出）的内核数量将是Sapphire Rapids的2倍，这意味着英特尔可以超越AMD（届时将拥有96核CPU）112核CPU。</blockquote> In summary, Intel will get its roadmap back on track over the next few years, and will hence maintain its market share going forward, well before AMD could get anywhere near the 40% or more market share that AMD really needs to justify its valuation.<blockquote>总而言之，英特尔将在未来几年内让其路线图重回正轨，并因此在AMD能够接近AMD证明其估值合理所需的40%或更多市场份额之前保持其市场份额。</blockquote> Other<blockquote>其他的</blockquote> However, the main reason Intel could deserve a premium valuation is because it is targeting a market that is simply so much larger than AMD's. In the article where I claimed AMD is not half an Intel, I described Intel as a semiconductor conglomerate. In the past, I have discussed&nbsp;5G,robotaxis&nbsp;and the&nbsp;foundry business. Intel also has some smaller growth businesses with Optane memory and IoT, which grew over 50% last quarter to a new record.<blockquote>然而，英特尔值得获得溢价估值的主要原因是因为它的目标市场比AMD大得多。在我声称AMD不是半个英特尔的文章中，我将英特尔描述为一家半导体集团。过去，我讨论过5G、机器人出租车和代工业务。英特尔还拥有一些规模较小的Optane内存和物联网业务，上季度增长超过50%，创下新纪录。</blockquote> I have previously estimated Mobileye could become as large as the data center or PC, for example. Pat Gelsinger also added an additional wildcard with the&nbsp;Intel Foundry Services business. I have been closely&nbsp;monitoring progress in Intel and TSMC's roadmaps, and in the most bullish case, Intel could start to take significant market share if it really achieves its target to overtake TSMC by 2025. This would be similar to how AMD has managed to substantially increase its revenue in the last few years by taking market share from Intel; in this case, Intel might start to take significant share (and hence revenue) from TSMC.<blockquote>例如，我之前估计Mobileye可能会变得像数据中心或PC一样大。Pat Gelsinger还为英特尔代工服务业务添加了一个额外的通配符。我一直在密切关注英特尔和台积电路线图的进展，在最乐观的情况下，如果英特尔真的实现到2025年超越台积电的目标，它可能会开始占据重要的市场份额。这类似于AMD在过去几年中通过从英特尔手中夺取市场份额来大幅增加收入；在这种情况下，英特尔可能会开始从台积电手中夺取大量份额（以及收入）。</blockquote> As such, Intel has&nbsp;exposure to all major growth areas in semiconductors: cloud,AI,graphics, 5G, IoT, foundry and autonomous driving. This means Intel competes in about 2x as many markets as AMD. Hence, to approximation, AMD cannot be worth even half as much as Intel (without having &gt;50% market share).<blockquote>因此，英特尔涉足半导体的所有主要增长领域：云、人工智能、图形、5G、物联网、代工和自动驾驶。这意味着英特尔的竞争市场大约是AMD的两倍。因此，近似地说，AMD的价值甚至没有英特尔的一半（没有超过50%的市场份额）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> For some more concrete numbers, Intel discussed its long-term growth target at the recent Q3 call (10-12%). Intel was a bit ambiguous about when it would start to grow at that rate, so for simplicity, I will assume that Intel will be $80B in 2025 and then grow at a 5-10% CAGR through 2030. In that scenario, Intel will generate $100-130B by 2030. This is 2.5x to 3.3x more than my estimate for AMD.<blockquote>对于一些更具体的数字，英特尔在最近的第三季度看涨期权（10-12%）中讨论了其长期增长目标。英特尔对于何时开始以这个速度增长有点模糊，所以为了简单起见，我假设英特尔在2025年的规模将达到800亿美元，然后到2030年以5-10%的复合年增长率增长。在这种情况下，英特尔到2030年将创造100-1300亿美元的收入。这比我对AMD的估计高出2.5倍到3.3倍。</blockquote> Case study: Intel first to 3nm<blockquote>案例研究：英特尔率先迈向3nm</blockquote> As I have&nbsp;discussed in previous articles, Intel has been rumored since 2020 to be one of the first to transition to TSMC (TSM) 3nm. The latest rumor has provided further details about this: Intel would produce the GPU tile in its Meteor Lake CPU at TSMC.<blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所讨论的，自2020年以来，英特尔一直被传言是首批过渡到台积电(TSM)3nm的公司之一。最新的传言提供了这方面的进一步细节：英特尔将在台积电的Meteor Lake CPU中生产GPU切片。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15ad7d5e6a6fb4e85853074e7c5618c\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> For AMD, the best-case seems about priced in, trading at a ~50x P/E, despite that going forward AMD will not hold any significant/differentiated technology proposition anymore (as was the case when Intel was stuck on 14nm).<blockquote>对于AMD来说，最好的情况似乎是定价，市盈率约为50倍，尽管未来AMD将不再拥有任何重要/差异化的技术主张（就像英特尔被困在14纳米时的情况一样）。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Intel&nbsp;used its recent Q3&nbsp;to provide investors with the financial reality of Pat Gelsinger's comeback plan, which will see gross margin dip to 51-53%. This has led the stock price to sink to single-digit P/E. As such, one could claim that Intel is currently being priced for the worst-case scenario: Intel will be spending a ton (over $40B annually in R&amp;D and capex), and the market does not believe Intel will see any returns from these investments.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔利用最近的第三季度向投资者提供了帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)复出计划的财务现实，该计划的毛利率将降至51-53%。这导致股价跌至个位数市盈率。因此，有人可能会说，英特尔目前的定价是针对最坏情况：英特尔将花费大量资金（每年超过40B美元的研发和资本支出），而市场不相信英特尔会从这些投资中获得任何回报。</blockquote> Nevertheless, in the best-case, Intel will continue to steadily increase revenue from its current businesses (as it has done from 2015-2020) while building significant new businesses such as Xe GPUs, MoovitAV (robotaxis), Mobileye Drive (self-driving consumer vehicles) and Intel Foundry Services. Additionally, as Intel executes to regain industry technology leadership, then it will again be able to get back to industry-leading ASPs, resulting in both revenue and gross margin upside.<blockquote>尽管如此，在最好的情况下，英特尔将继续稳步增加其当前业务的收入（就像它在2015-2020年所做的那样），同时建立重要的新业务，如Xe GPU、MoovitAV（机器人出租车）、Mobileye Drive（自动驾驶）消费汽车）和英特尔代工服务。此外，随着英特尔努力重新获得行业技术领先地位，它将能够再次回到行业领先的平均售价，从而带来收入和毛利率的上升。</blockquote> Of course, the proof would ultimately be in the pudding: Intel would have to show the market (1) that it can again execute reliably on its leadership process roadmap and hence get its gross margin back up, and (2) that it can grow its revenue at the expense of its competitors (AMD, Nvidia, TSMC). To that end, the Qualcomm foundry win for Intel's 20A node may be seen as a small first step. Nevertheless, for now, the most promising sign may be&nbsp;the amount of veterans that have joined or rejoined Intel&nbsp;in the wake of Pat Gelsinger CEO appointment.<blockquote>当然，证据最终会在布丁中：英特尔必须向市场展示（1）它可以再次可靠地执行其领导流程路线图，从而恢复其毛利率，以及（2）它可以以牺牲竞争对手（AMD、英伟达、台积电）为代价来增长其收入。为此，英特尔20A节点的高通代工胜利可能被视为一小步。尽管如此，就目前而言，最有希望的迹象可能是在帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)被任命为首席执行官后加入或重新加入英特尔的退伍军人数量。</blockquote> To put this in some more numbers, in previous sections, I estimated AMD could reach $40B by 2030 compared to Intel's ~$120B. Under the assumption that, a decade from now, nothing will be visible anymore from Intel's current issues, one could argue that Intel, by virtue of being an IDM, most likely will have improved its margins back to ~60% (higher than AMD).<blockquote>为了更多地说明这一点，在前面的章节中，我估计AMD到2030年可能会达到400亿美元，而英特尔的销售额约为120亿美元。假设十年后，英特尔当前的问题将不再可见，人们可能会说，英特尔凭借其IDM的地位，很可能会将其利润率提高到60%左右（高于AMD）。</blockquote> As such, one could argue that Intel should actually be valued higher than AMD. In that case, the relative valuation between AMD and Intel might expand (in favor of Intel) from the current 1x to (at least) 3x (based on 3x the revenue). This would result in a market cap for Intel of up to $1 trillion. Of course, this is under the assumption that there would be no further missteps in the business that would continue to deflate Intel's valuation like it currently is.<blockquote>因此，有人可能会说英特尔的估值实际上应该高于AMD。在这种情况下，AMD和英特尔之间的相对估值可能会从目前的1倍扩大到（至少）3倍（基于3倍的收入）（有利于英特尔）。这将导致英特尔的市值高达1万亿美元。当然，这是在假设该业务不会出现进一步的失误，从而继续像目前那样压低英特尔的估值。</blockquote> In the table below, the AMD valuation is based on either AMD growing into its current valuation, or further expanding over time in line with revenue.<blockquote>在下表中，AMD估值基于AMD增长到当前估值，或者随着时间的推移根据收入进一步扩张。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de65ceefd77782409090b851f55ab8a\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lastly, for comparison, Tesla (TSLA) has now grown to a record $1 trillion valuation, despite FSD still being merely L2 and in beta while Intel is starting its L4 robotaxi business next year. Tesla also has lower revenue and 20 points lower gross margin. As discussed previously, Intel seems better positioned for autonomous driving than Tesla:Uber, Intel Will Dominate Autonomous Driving. Legions of investors have ascribed enormous valuations to Tesla's non-existing robotaxi business, so from that view, a $1 trillion Intel wouldn't be all that far-fetched.<blockquote>最后，相比之下，特斯拉(TSLA)的估值现已增长至创纪录的1万亿美元，尽管FSD仍仅处于L2级且处于测试阶段，而英特尔将于明年启动L4机器人出租车业务。特斯拉的收入也较低，毛利率也下降了20个百分点。如前所述，英特尔似乎比特斯拉更适合自动驾驶：优步，英特尔将主导自动驾驶。大批投资者将巨大的估值归因于特斯拉不存在的机器人出租车业务，因此从这个角度来看，1万亿美元的英特尔并不是那么牵强。</blockquote> The tide is turning<blockquote>潮流正在转向</blockquote> The tide seems to be turning among a wider range of investors and analysts, as discussed for example on Seeking Alpha:<blockquote>正如Seeking Alpha上所讨论的那样，更广泛的投资者和分析师的潮流似乎正在发生转变：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095f524ab6e6b4c9ca0c6d5996e7913d\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Alder Lake<blockquote>阿尔德湖</blockquote> I had discussed Alder Lake in many articles before its launch, and now the reviews are available. Most investors doubted that Alder Lake would be game-changing for Intel:Intel Stock: Alder Lake Looks Like a Game-Changer(NASDAQ:INTC). However, the reviews are completely unambiguous: Intel is back. Especially, the Core i5 has received universal praise (vs. Ryzen 5).<blockquote>在Alder Lake发布之前，我已经在许多文章中讨论过它，现在评论已经出来了。大多数投资者怀疑Alder Lake是否会改变英特尔的游戏规则：英特尔股票：Alder Lake看起来像是一个游戏规则改变者（纳斯达克：INTC）。然而，评论是完全明确的：英特尔回来了。尤其是酷睿i5获得了普遍好评（对比锐龙5）。</blockquote> When averaging out dozens of benchmarks, it can be seen that each Alder Lake CPU is faster than the one it competes against (note, for example, the Core i5 being nearly on-par with Ryzen 7):<blockquote>当对几十个基准测试进行平均时，可以看到每个Alder Lake CPU都比它的竞争对手更快（例如，请注意，Core i5几乎与Ryzen 7相当）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ff2a204f9d6cf0d5a14dfcb44b8eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Alder Lake's strongest performance:<blockquote>Alder Lake最强表现：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6739112b677871da545775daada51a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"755\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> In my recent&nbsp;discussion of Intel's Q3 results, I compared Intel a few times against AMD, as I see Intel capable of a similar comeback (even on a bigger scale), and I elaborated on that topic here. To be specific, given Intel's issues in the recent past, the company has become the underdog, similar to AMD just half a decade ago.<blockquote>在我最近对英特尔第三季度业绩的讨论中，我多次将英特尔与AMD进行比较，因为我认为英特尔有能力实现类似的卷土重来（甚至在更大的规模上），我在这里详细阐述了这个主题。具体来说，鉴于英特尔最近的问题，该公司已经成为失败者，就像五年前的AMD一样。</blockquote> Nevertheless, by revenue and net income, Intel is still by far the world's biggest logic semiconductor company. This means Intel has ample resources to get itself back together, and it currently also has a CEO that is doing exactly that. If a near-bankrupt AMD could become what it is today (nearly Intel's valuation), then investors might perhaps give a second thought about what Intel could become if it finally starts to turn that combined $40B annual R&amp;D and capex budget (more than double AMD's annual revenue) into results.<blockquote>尽管如此，按收入和净利润计算，英特尔仍然是迄今为止全球最大的逻辑半导体公司。这意味着英特尔有充足的资源来重新振作起来，而且它目前也有一位首席执行官正在这样做。如果濒临破产的AMD能够变成今天的样子（接近英特尔的估值），那么如果英特尔最终开始将400亿美元的年度研发和资本支出预算（超过AMD的两倍）变成结果，投资者可能会重新考虑英特尔会变成什么样子。</blockquote> Even when using conservative growth estimates for Intel and generous ones for AMD, in this article, I arrived at the conclusion that Intel in 2030 should still be about 3x larger than AMD. Hence, as the title stated, AMD is not three-quarters Intel. If one would then translate that difference into market cap, then Intel could become well over $1 trillion in market cap.<blockquote>即使对英特尔使用保守的增长估计，对AMD使用慷慨的增长估计，在本文中，我得出的结论是，2030年的英特尔仍应是AMD的3倍左右。因此，正如标题所述，AMD不是四分之三的英特尔。如果将这种差异转化为市值，那么英特尔的市值可能会远远超过1万亿美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471828-amd-vs-intel-market-cap-stock-valuation-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471828-amd-vs-intel-market-cap-stock-valuation-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199424115","content_text":"Summary\n\nCurrently, AMD is valued at (nearly) Intel’s market cap. I will conclude that the relative valuation between both is untenable in the long term.\nAlthough some may assume AMD could grow into its valuation, in the logical scenario, Intel would gain a lot more market cap.\nEven using conservative estimates (and generous ones for AMD), Intel would still be 3x larger than AMD in 2030.\nWith the best-case AMD scenario priced in, this means Intel has higher prospects for alpha. Intel stock price could quintuple to $1 trillion.\n\nAndrei Berezovskii/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nAMD (AMD) is now valued at nearly 1x Intel's (INTC) value. Here, I will put this valuation to the test. Specifically, I will take a long-term stance to determine whether they can either expand their valuation (in Intel's case), or grow into it (in AMD's case).\nAs the title already revealed, I do not believe that AMD could ever really become the size of Intel. Although on the surface, Intel and AMD may look like similar companies with similar products, ultimately Intel's scope is just so much wider, covering 5G, IoT, the foundry market and autonomous driving. All of those are important segments which AMD has no investments in.\nAs such, the current relative valuation of both companies seems untenable in the long term. Although there is a likelihood that AMD could grow into its valuation, for the relative valuation to become more reflective of the underlying reality, I mainly see Intel growing much larger. This is because its valuation has become so compressed given the failures of prior management.\nBackground\nOver a year ago, when AMD reached the $100B mark, I claimed that AMD was not half an Intel as the stock had quickly surged from the $50s to $80s (for a large part due to Intel's 7nm delay). This article will update that evaluation.\nNevertheless, earlier this year, after AMD traded sideways for nearly a year, I called AMD undervalued. The stock has rallied 50% since that call.\nAMD thesis: flawed and limited\nLet's start with the AMD thesis. This is actually the easiest part (compared to the financials/valuation). Clearly, the main thesis for AMD remains to take market share from Nvidia (NVDA) in graphics and Intel in CPUs. As I wrote in May:\n\n However, what most will really care about remains unknown. How much Ryzen did AMD sell? How much Radeon? What is the split between console and Epyc sales? AMD doesn't want investors to know.\n\nCPU: $30B revenue target\nOn the CPU side, my outlook is neutral to slightly bearish. As I have discussed previously, Intel's upcoming portfolio in 2022 will be such a major upgrade (Intel calls it its biggest update in a decade) that I previously argued that the AMD threat for Intel would be finished going forward. Additionally, as Intel said on the recent Q3 call, in these times of shortages, capacity is destiny, and I regard Intel as better-positioned to provide supply than AMD, which is reliant on TSMC (TSM).\nHowever, a few details prevent me from becoming bearish just yet. Although Intel's PC roadmap is rock solid, I remain puzzled by Intel's execution and progress in the data center. (For example, Meteor Lake was delayed by about 1-2 quarters compared to Granite Rapids' delay of well over a year.) Additionally, although it has taken several years, by now, one has to recognize that AMD has obtained critical momentum and is seen as a legitimate alternative to Intel. Since even now the majority of Intel's data center revenue still comes from 14nm parts, this momentum may continue for a while.\nHence, I see no reason to doubt Pat Gelsinger's statement that he is targeting 2024-2025 before the results of the new investments will become visible. In that longer-term timeline, the current shortages will also be relegated to just a temporary note in history.\nIn the neutral case, I would expect AMD's market share to steadily increase to ~30%. If we assume the PC + data center TAM grows to $100B, then AMD could reach $30B in revenue over time. In the worst-case, Intel regaining leadership could mean that AMD may again become the value brand.\nGPU: $10B revenue target\nOn the GPU side, I am slightly more bullish since I see Nvidia's market share position as untenable. AMD's latest accelerator seems about as powerful as Intel's upcoming 100 billion transistor 5nm Ponte Vecchio behemoth (which is over 2x Nvidia's A100 in theoretical performance).\nHowever, one more invisible issue in the data center may be software (optimizations). Nevertheless, I do not quite subscribe to the view that CUDA is the holy grail, since, for example, AI is being done with vendor-agnostic frameworks such as TensorFlow. Still, taking market share from Nvidia may prove to be difficult after all.\nConclusion\nOverall, then, most would assume that AMD's growth markets such as gaming and data center will continue to grow in the long term, and some would argue AMD could grow faster than the overall market as well. Combining the above CPU estimate with consoles and graphics, then AMD may perhaps a bit more than double its revenue to $40B over time. If we assume AMD reaches this level in 2030, then it would be about two to three decades behind Intel.\nIntel thesis: undervalued and underestimated\nIn the last several years, although its financials have been decent, according to general consensus, Intel has fallen behind in technology and now trades at a measly single-digit P/E. However, as I see it, Intel is going nowhere. And this is especially true now that Intel finally has a capable CEO that has gotten the greenlight from the board to throw all its funding at innovation (rather than stock buybacks). And this is exactly what Intel will be doing. As I recently argued, the stock market generally does not value a company based on its roadmap, which means investors have ample time to get on board.\nCPU\nIndeed, these roadmaps imply Intel could legitimately turn around in the next three to four years. As argued in previous section, Intel seems pretty safe on the PC side. In the data center, Intel has hinted that Granite Rapids (scheduled for 2023 after the aforementioned delay) will contain 2x as many cores as Sapphire Rapids, which means that Intel could leapfrog AMD (which will have a 96-core CPU then) with a 112-core CPU.\nIn summary, Intel will get its roadmap back on track over the next few years, and will hence maintain its market share going forward, well before AMD could get anywhere near the 40% or more market share that AMD really needs to justify its valuation.\nOther\nHowever, the main reason Intel could deserve a premium valuation is because it is targeting a market that is simply so much larger than AMD's. In the article where I claimed AMD is not half an Intel, I described Intel as a semiconductor conglomerate. In the past, I have discussed 5G,robotaxis and the foundry business. Intel also has some smaller growth businesses with Optane memory and IoT, which grew over 50% last quarter to a new record.\nI have previously estimated Mobileye could become as large as the data center or PC, for example. Pat Gelsinger also added an additional wildcard with the Intel Foundry Services business. I have been closely monitoring progress in Intel and TSMC's roadmaps, and in the most bullish case, Intel could start to take significant market share if it really achieves its target to overtake TSMC by 2025. This would be similar to how AMD has managed to substantially increase its revenue in the last few years by taking market share from Intel; in this case, Intel might start to take significant share (and hence revenue) from TSMC.\nAs such, Intel has exposure to all major growth areas in semiconductors: cloud,AI,graphics, 5G, IoT, foundry and autonomous driving. This means Intel competes in about 2x as many markets as AMD. Hence, to approximation, AMD cannot be worth even half as much as Intel (without having >50% market share).\nConclusion\nFor some more concrete numbers, Intel discussed its long-term growth target at the recent Q3 call (10-12%). Intel was a bit ambiguous about when it would start to grow at that rate, so for simplicity, I will assume that Intel will be $80B in 2025 and then grow at a 5-10% CAGR through 2030. In that scenario, Intel will generate $100-130B by 2030. This is 2.5x to 3.3x more than my estimate for AMD.\nCase study: Intel first to 3nm\nAs I have discussed in previous articles, Intel has been rumored since 2020 to be one of the first to transition to TSMC (TSM) 3nm. The latest rumor has provided further details about this: Intel would produce the GPU tile in its Meteor Lake CPU at TSMC.\n\nValuation\nFor AMD, the best-case seems about priced in, trading at a ~50x P/E, despite that going forward AMD will not hold any significant/differentiated technology proposition anymore (as was the case when Intel was stuck on 14nm).\nMeanwhile, Intel used its recent Q3 to provide investors with the financial reality of Pat Gelsinger's comeback plan, which will see gross margin dip to 51-53%. This has led the stock price to sink to single-digit P/E. As such, one could claim that Intel is currently being priced for the worst-case scenario: Intel will be spending a ton (over $40B annually in R&D and capex), and the market does not believe Intel will see any returns from these investments.\nNevertheless, in the best-case, Intel will continue to steadily increase revenue from its current businesses (as it has done from 2015-2020) while building significant new businesses such as Xe GPUs, MoovitAV (robotaxis), Mobileye Drive (self-driving consumer vehicles) and Intel Foundry Services. Additionally, as Intel executes to regain industry technology leadership, then it will again be able to get back to industry-leading ASPs, resulting in both revenue and gross margin upside.\nOf course, the proof would ultimately be in the pudding: Intel would have to show the market (1) that it can again execute reliably on its leadership process roadmap and hence get its gross margin back up, and (2) that it can grow its revenue at the expense of its competitors (AMD, Nvidia, TSMC). To that end, the Qualcomm foundry win for Intel's 20A node may be seen as a small first step. Nevertheless, for now, the most promising sign may be the amount of veterans that have joined or rejoined Intel in the wake of Pat Gelsinger CEO appointment.\nTo put this in some more numbers, in previous sections, I estimated AMD could reach $40B by 2030 compared to Intel's ~$120B. Under the assumption that, a decade from now, nothing will be visible anymore from Intel's current issues, one could argue that Intel, by virtue of being an IDM, most likely will have improved its margins back to ~60% (higher than AMD).\nAs such, one could argue that Intel should actually be valued higher than AMD. In that case, the relative valuation between AMD and Intel might expand (in favor of Intel) from the current 1x to (at least) 3x (based on 3x the revenue). This would result in a market cap for Intel of up to $1 trillion. Of course, this is under the assumption that there would be no further missteps in the business that would continue to deflate Intel's valuation like it currently is.\nIn the table below, the AMD valuation is based on either AMD growing into its current valuation, or further expanding over time in line with revenue.\n\nLastly, for comparison, Tesla (TSLA) has now grown to a record $1 trillion valuation, despite FSD still being merely L2 and in beta while Intel is starting its L4 robotaxi business next year. Tesla also has lower revenue and 20 points lower gross margin. As discussed previously, Intel seems better positioned for autonomous driving than Tesla:Uber, Intel Will Dominate Autonomous Driving. Legions of investors have ascribed enormous valuations to Tesla's non-existing robotaxi business, so from that view, a $1 trillion Intel wouldn't be all that far-fetched.\nThe tide is turning\nThe tide seems to be turning among a wider range of investors and analysts, as discussed for example on Seeking Alpha:\n\nAlder Lake\nI had discussed Alder Lake in many articles before its launch, and now the reviews are available. Most investors doubted that Alder Lake would be game-changing for Intel:Intel Stock: Alder Lake Looks Like a Game-Changer(NASDAQ:INTC). However, the reviews are completely unambiguous: Intel is back. Especially, the Core i5 has received universal praise (vs. Ryzen 5).\nWhen averaging out dozens of benchmarks, it can be seen that each Alder Lake CPU is faster than the one it competes against (note, for example, the Core i5 being nearly on-par with Ryzen 7):\n\nAlder Lake's strongest performance:\n\nInvestor Takeaway\nIn my recent discussion of Intel's Q3 results, I compared Intel a few times against AMD, as I see Intel capable of a similar comeback (even on a bigger scale), and I elaborated on that topic here. To be specific, given Intel's issues in the recent past, the company has become the underdog, similar to AMD just half a decade ago.\nNevertheless, by revenue and net income, Intel is still by far the world's biggest logic semiconductor company. This means Intel has ample resources to get itself back together, and it currently also has a CEO that is doing exactly that. If a near-bankrupt AMD could become what it is today (nearly Intel's valuation), then investors might perhaps give a second thought about what Intel could become if it finally starts to turn that combined $40B annual R&D and capex budget (more than double AMD's annual revenue) into results.\nEven when using conservative growth estimates for Intel and generous ones for AMD, in this article, I arrived at the conclusion that Intel in 2030 should still be about 3x larger than AMD. Hence, as the title stated, AMD is not three-quarters Intel. If one would then translate that difference into market cap, then Intel could become well over $1 trillion in market cap.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["INTC","AMD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874437723"}