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2021-11-25
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Apple Stock: Analysts Change Tune, See Strong iPhone Results<blockquote>苹果股票：分析师改变态度，看到强劲的iPhone业绩</blockquote>
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Here is what investors should know.As Apple stock tries to hang tight to all-time highs reached only a couple of days ago, investors have more reasons to be optimistic. Once a question mark, the current iPhone cycle is proving to be at least as strong as some of the more bullish analysts had predicted in 2019 and 2020.Figure 1: Apple's latest iPhone model, the iPho","content":"<p>Once a contrarian view, analysts are starting to agree that the iPhone will perform well against tough comps in the holiday quarter. Here is what investors should know.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们曾经持相反观点，现在开始一致认为，iPhone在假日季度将在严峻的竞争中表现良好。以下是投资者应该了解的内容。</blockquote></p><p> As Apple stock tries to hang tight to all-time highs reached only a couple of days ago, investors have more reasons to be optimistic. Once a question mark, the current iPhone cycle is proving to be at least as strong as some of the more bullish analysts had predicted in 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价试图坚守几天前达到的历史高点，投资者有更多理由保持乐观。曾经是一个问号的iPhone周期被证明至少与一些更乐观的分析师在2019年和2020年预测的一样强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7f6dcaeee8725e993989601e0a7c8e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's latest iPhone model, the iPhone 13.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果最新的iPhone机型iPhone 13。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven looks at more data points coming from Wall Street suggesting that the iPhone will likely have a strong holiday quarter of sales in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家研究了更多来自华尔街的数据点，这些数据表明iPhone可能会在2021年假日季度实现强劲的销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: a contrarian view at first</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：最初的逆向观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Few analysts dared to make bold, optimistic predictions about iPhone sales in the near term. Apple performed superbly in calendar 2020, particularly after the launch of the iPhone 12. See graph below.</p><p><blockquote>很少有分析师敢于对iPhone近期销量做出大胆、乐观的预测。苹果在2020年表现出色，尤其是在iPhone 12推出之后。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbdaab51ac6923579d5a04e59afb0c9\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：F19以来iPhone收入增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the few to defy the consensus view that tough comps would lead to unimpressive growth in 2021-2022 was Wedbush’s Dan Ives.In our conversation of a few months ago, he stated:</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什(Wedbush)的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)是少数几个无视共识观点的人之一，即严格的竞争将导致2021-2022年增长乏力。在我们几个月前的谈话中，他说：</blockquote></p><p> “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. If you look at it, we still have 25% of the base that has not upgraded their iPhones in the last three and a half years. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out.” Recently, Dan Ives called for 80 million iPhone units sold in fiscal Q1 that ends next month. I calculated that, at an estimated ASP (average selling price) of $900 that relies on a heavy blend of higher-end devices sold, iPhone revenues could increase 10% over last year’s number, which in turn had already been a record quarter of performance for Apple’s smartphone segment.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和拉长程度。如果你看看它，我们仍然有25%的基数在过去三年半内没有升级他们的iPhone。[……]5G不会在未来两三年内得到充分拥抱，直到网络建成。”最近，丹·艾夫斯呼吁在下个月结束的第一季度销售8000万部iPhone。我计算出，在依赖于大量高端设备销售的ASP（平均售价）为900美元的情况下，iPhone的收入可能会比去年增长10%，而去年的季度业绩已经创下了纪录苹果智能手机领域的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowly becoming consensus</b></p><p><blockquote><b>慢慢成为共识</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, other analysts are starting to think that the iPhone will perform well, even in the near term. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee, who thinks that AAPL stock has about 12% upside from here to a share price target of $180,seesstrength in Greater China.</p><p><blockquote>现在，其他分析师开始认为iPhone的表现会很好，即使是在短期内。摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee认为，从现在到180美元的目标股价，AAPL股票还有约12%的上涨空间，他看到了大中华区的实力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst disclosed that October has been a great month of sales for the iPhone in the country: 10.8 million units shipped, the highest in any month since 2014. Mr. Chatterjee’s belief that this figure “hints toward a strong start for the iPhone 13 cycle in the region\" suggests that China will continue to see outstanding revenue growth. As a reminder, Apple delivered 57% top-line increase in fiscal Q1 last year.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师透露，10月份是iPhone在中国销售的一个月：出货量为1080万部，是自2014年以来的最高月份。查特吉认为，这一数字“暗示了该地区iPhone 13周期的强劲开局”，这表明中国将继续看到出色的收入增长。提醒一下，苹果去年Q1财年的营收增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> Even one of the most bearish on Wall Street, New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, appears to believe in upside potential to iPhone sales this quarter. Henotesthat iOS has grabbed 2 percentage points of market share from Android in China, although he continues to think that AAPL stock has 40%-plus downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>即使是华尔街最悲观的人之一、New Street的Pierre Ferragu似乎也相信本季度iPhone销量的上涨潜力。他指出，iOS在中国已从Android手中抢走了2个百分点的市场份额，尽管他仍然认为AAPL股价较当前水平有40%以上的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Analysts Change Tune, See Strong iPhone Results<blockquote>苹果股票：分析师改变态度，看到强劲的iPhone业绩</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Analysts Change Tune, See Strong iPhone Results<blockquote>苹果股票：分析师改变态度，看到强劲的iPhone业绩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Once a contrarian view, analysts are starting to agree that the iPhone will perform well against tough comps in the holiday quarter. Here is what investors should know.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们曾经持相反观点，现在开始一致认为，iPhone在假日季度将在严峻的竞争中表现良好。以下是投资者应该了解的内容。</blockquote></p><p> As Apple stock tries to hang tight to all-time highs reached only a couple of days ago, investors have more reasons to be optimistic. Once a question mark, the current iPhone cycle is proving to be at least as strong as some of the more bullish analysts had predicted in 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价试图坚守几天前达到的历史高点，投资者有更多理由保持乐观。曾经是一个问号的iPhone周期被证明至少与一些更乐观的分析师在2019年和2020年预测的一样强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7f6dcaeee8725e993989601e0a7c8e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's latest iPhone model, the iPhone 13.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果最新的iPhone机型iPhone 13。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven looks at more data points coming from Wall Street suggesting that the iPhone will likely have a strong holiday quarter of sales in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家研究了更多来自华尔街的数据点，这些数据表明iPhone可能会在2021年假日季度实现强劲的销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: a contrarian view at first</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：最初的逆向观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Few analysts dared to make bold, optimistic predictions about iPhone sales in the near term. Apple performed superbly in calendar 2020, particularly after the launch of the iPhone 12. See graph below.</p><p><blockquote>很少有分析师敢于对iPhone近期销量做出大胆、乐观的预测。苹果在2020年表现出色，尤其是在iPhone 12推出之后。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbdaab51ac6923579d5a04e59afb0c9\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：F19以来iPhone收入增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the few to defy the consensus view that tough comps would lead to unimpressive growth in 2021-2022 was Wedbush’s Dan Ives.In our conversation of a few months ago, he stated:</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什(Wedbush)的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)是少数几个无视共识观点的人之一，即严格的竞争将导致2021-2022年增长乏力。在我们几个月前的谈话中，他说：</blockquote></p><p> “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. If you look at it, we still have 25% of the base that has not upgraded their iPhones in the last three and a half years. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out.” Recently, Dan Ives called for 80 million iPhone units sold in fiscal Q1 that ends next month. I calculated that, at an estimated ASP (average selling price) of $900 that relies on a heavy blend of higher-end devices sold, iPhone revenues could increase 10% over last year’s number, which in turn had already been a record quarter of performance for Apple’s smartphone segment.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和拉长程度。如果你看看它，我们仍然有25%的基数在过去三年半内没有升级他们的iPhone。[……]5G不会在未来两三年内得到充分拥抱，直到网络建成。”最近，丹·艾夫斯呼吁在下个月结束的第一季度销售8000万部iPhone。我计算出，在依赖于大量高端设备销售的ASP（平均售价）为900美元的情况下，iPhone的收入可能会比去年增长10%，而去年的季度业绩已经创下了纪录苹果智能手机领域的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowly becoming consensus</b></p><p><blockquote><b>慢慢成为共识</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, other analysts are starting to think that the iPhone will perform well, even in the near term. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee, who thinks that AAPL stock has about 12% upside from here to a share price target of $180,seesstrength in Greater China.</p><p><blockquote>现在，其他分析师开始认为iPhone的表现会很好，即使是在短期内。摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee认为，从现在到180美元的目标股价，AAPL股票还有约12%的上涨空间，他看到了大中华区的实力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst disclosed that October has been a great month of sales for the iPhone in the country: 10.8 million units shipped, the highest in any month since 2014. Mr. Chatterjee’s belief that this figure “hints toward a strong start for the iPhone 13 cycle in the region\" suggests that China will continue to see outstanding revenue growth. As a reminder, Apple delivered 57% top-line increase in fiscal Q1 last year.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师透露，10月份是iPhone在中国销售的一个月：出货量为1080万部，是自2014年以来的最高月份。查特吉认为，这一数字“暗示了该地区iPhone 13周期的强劲开局”，这表明中国将继续看到出色的收入增长。提醒一下，苹果去年Q1财年的营收增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> Even one of the most bearish on Wall Street, New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, appears to believe in upside potential to iPhone sales this quarter. Henotesthat iOS has grabbed 2 percentage points of market share from Android in China, although he continues to think that AAPL stock has 40%-plus downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>即使是华尔街最悲观的人之一、New Street的Pierre Ferragu似乎也相信本季度iPhone销量的上涨潜力。他指出，iOS在中国已从Android手中抢走了2个百分点的市场份额，尽管他仍然认为AAPL股价较当前水平有40%以上的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-iphone-strength-has-become-consensus\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-iphone-strength-has-become-consensus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110509260","content_text":"Once a contrarian view, analysts are starting to agree that the iPhone will perform well against tough comps in the holiday quarter. Here is what investors should know.\nAs Apple stock tries to hang tight to all-time highs reached only a couple of days ago, investors have more reasons to be optimistic. Once a question mark, the current iPhone cycle is proving to be at least as strong as some of the more bullish analysts had predicted in 2019 and 2020.\nFigure 1: Apple's latest iPhone model, the iPhone 13.\nToday, the Apple Maven looks at more data points coming from Wall Street suggesting that the iPhone will likely have a strong holiday quarter of sales in 2021.\niPhone: a contrarian view at first\nFew analysts dared to make bold, optimistic predictions about iPhone sales in the near term. Apple performed superbly in calendar 2020, particularly after the launch of the iPhone 12. See graph below.\nFigure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.\nOne of the few to defy the consensus view that tough comps would lead to unimpressive growth in 2021-2022 was Wedbush’s Dan Ives.In our conversation of a few months ago, he stated:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. If you look at it, we still have 25% of the base that has not upgraded their iPhones in the last three and a half years. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out.”\n\nRecently, Dan Ives called for 80 million iPhone units sold in fiscal Q1 that ends next month. I calculated that, at an estimated ASP (average selling price) of $900 that relies on a heavy blend of higher-end devices sold, iPhone revenues could increase 10% over last year’s number, which in turn had already been a record quarter of performance for Apple’s smartphone segment.\nSlowly becoming consensus\nNow, other analysts are starting to think that the iPhone will perform well, even in the near term. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee, who thinks that AAPL stock has about 12% upside from here to a share price target of $180,seesstrength in Greater China.\nThe analyst disclosed that October has been a great month of sales for the iPhone in the country: 10.8 million units shipped, the highest in any month since 2014. Mr. Chatterjee’s belief that this figure “hints toward a strong start for the iPhone 13 cycle in the region\" suggests that China will continue to see outstanding revenue growth. As a reminder, Apple delivered 57% top-line increase in fiscal Q1 last year.\nEven one of the most bearish on Wall Street, New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, appears to believe in upside potential to iPhone sales this quarter. Henotesthat iOS has grabbed 2 percentage points of market share from Android in China, although he continues to think that AAPL stock has 40%-plus downside risk from current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874558362"}
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