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2021-11-25
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3 Reasons Why High Gas Prices Will Stick Around for a While<blockquote>高油价将持续一段时间的3个原因</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":874791052,"tweetId":"874791052","gmtCreate":1637820378887,"gmtModify":1637820379024,"author":{"id":3570833313854293,"idStr":"3570833313854293","authorId":3570833313854293,"authorIdStr":"3570833313854293","name":"jwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28abfe41bb5b560d49fb6f273c7de99","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hm</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hm</p></body></html>","text":"Hm","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874791052","repostId":1106704969,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106704969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637820241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106704969?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 14:04","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Why High Gas Prices Will Stick Around for a While<blockquote>高油价将持续一段时间的3个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106704969","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bad news for your wallet: Eye-watering pump prices for gasoline are likely here for a while.\nWorse s","content":"<p> Bad news for your wallet: Eye-watering pump prices for gasoline are likely here for a while.</p><p><blockquote>对你的钱包来说是个坏消息：令人瞠目结舌的汽油价格可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> Worse still, Tuesday’s announcement by the Biden administration to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) likely won’t have a prolonged effect on dampening pump prices, experts say.</p><p><blockquote>专家表示，更糟糕的是，拜登政府周二宣布从战略石油储备（SPR）中释放石油可能不会对抑制油价产生长期影响。</blockquote></p><p> Other significant factors will keep them elevated longer term, including actions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, known as OPEC+, green energy policies in the U.S., and investor demands.</p><p><blockquote>其他重要因素将使其长期保持高位，包括石油输出国组织和俄罗斯（即欧佩克+）的行动、美国的绿色能源政策以及投资者的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think the SPR release will help that much,” says Stewart Glickman, a senior equity analyst at CFRA. “You’ll likely get a short-term alleviation from the pain in a similar way to taking an aspirin to fix a headache.”</p><p><blockquote>CFRA高级股票分析师斯图尔特·格利克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示：“我认为SPR的发布不会有太大帮助。”“你可能会像服用阿司匹林治疗头痛一样短期缓解疼痛。”</blockquote></p><p> Across the U.S., gas prices averaged $3.40 a gallon as of Nov. 23, up 61% from $2.11 a year ago, according to AAA. Glickman says they could easily go as high as $3.70, depending on the oil price. Likewise, prices for reformulated gasoline futures contracts on the CME have rallied over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据AAA的数据，截至11月23日，美国各地的汽油平均价格为每加仑3.40美元，比一年前的2.11美元上涨了61%。Glickman表示，根据油价的不同，它们很容易升至3.70美元。同样，芝加哥商品交易所重新制定的汽油期货合约价格在过去一年中也有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The cause of high gas prices is simple: Oil supplies are not likely to keep up with increases in demand as the global economy rebounds from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. Typically, excess demand leads to higher oil prices which then translate into rising gas prices. Brent crude, the European benchmark, was recently fetching $82 a barrel up from about $47 a year ago, according to TradingEconomics.com.</p><p><blockquote>天然气价格高企的原因很简单：随着全球经济从Covid-19大流行封锁中反弹，石油供应不太可能跟上需求的增长。通常，需求过剩会导致油价上涨，进而转化为天然气价格上涨。根据TradingEconomics.com的数据，欧洲基准布伦特原油最近的价格从一年前的每桶约47美元上涨至82美元。</blockquote></p><p> Three major factors are likely to keep the price elevated over the next year. The first is OPEC+, which has modest oil production increases planned. “OPEC+ is sticking to its steady progression of quota increases, yet its actual production deficit continues to grow,” notes a Morningstar report.</p><p><blockquote>三个主要因素可能会使价格在明年保持高位。首先是欧佩克+，该组织计划适度增加石油产量。晨星公司的一份报告指出：“欧佩克+坚持稳步增加配额，但其实际产量赤字仍在继续增长。”</blockquote></p><p> That lack of OPEC+ supply response should be worrying. Crude demand is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels next year, says Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at TortoiseEcofin. In other words, supply increases from the oil cartel likely won’t keep up with growth in demand.</p><p><blockquote>欧佩克+缺乏供应反应应该令人担忧。TortoiseEcofin投资组合经理Rob Thummel表示，预计明年原油需求将超过新冠疫情爆发前的水平。换句话说，石油卡特尔的供应增长可能跟不上需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> The second issue is that the Biden administration policies are restricting a supply response from the U.S. energy industry. It might sound brutal but the noble goal of promoting clean energy is helping elevate gas prices. “[The administration’s approach] is the first to be fairly hostile towards the domestic oil and gas industry,” says a recent report from CFRA. “Any policy that effectively deters incremental supply of crude oil should elevate prices.” And it has seemingly done just that.</p><p><blockquote>第二个问题是拜登政府的政策正在限制美国能源行业的供应反应。这听起来可能很残酷，但推广清洁能源的崇高目标是帮助提高天然气价格。CFRA最近的一份报告称：“[政府的做法]是第一个对国内石油和天然气行业相当敌视的做法。”“任何有效阻止原油供应增量的政策都应该会抬高价格。”它似乎已经做到了。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are also having an impact on oil prices. Wall Street has long wanted to see exploration-and-production (E&Ps) companies take a more measured approach to expanding production. The energy industry overexpanded during boom times with new exploration-and-development projects. But now big oil has finally gotten the message: look after shareholders before anything else.</p><p><blockquote>投资者也在对油价产生影响。华尔街长期以来一直希望看到勘探与生产(E&Ps)公司采取更加谨慎的方式来扩大产量。随着新的勘探和开发项目，能源行业在繁荣时期过度扩张。但现在大型石油公司终于明白了这一点：首先要照顾股东。</blockquote></p><p> “Once spendthrift E&Ps continue to keep their purse strings drawn tight, eliminating the former source of incremental supply,” the Morningstar report states. The result: Oil inventories could plummet to levels not seen in over half a decade.</p><p><blockquote>晨星报告指出：“一旦挥霍无度的勘探与生产公司继续收紧钱包，就会消除以前的增量供应来源。”结果是：石油库存可能会暴跌至五年来未见的水平。</blockquote></p><p> What can investors do to mitigate these wallet-emptying fuel costs? Try buying unhedged oil stocks such as ConocoPhillips (ticker: COP) or Occidental Petroleum (OXY), says CFRA. Both look poised to benefit from next year’s likely high oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以做些什么来减轻这些掏空钱包的燃料成本？CFRA表示，尝试购买未对冲的石油股，例如康菲石油公司（股票代码：COP）或西方石油公司（OXY）。两家公司看起来都有望从明年可能的高油价中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, oil and gasoline prices could fall if demand falls, such as in the event of another wave of Covid-19 lockdowns, like those recently announced in Austria and other European countries. A week ago, the risk of widespread lockdowns seemed remote—now less so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果需求下降，石油和汽油价格可能会下跌，例如在另一波Covid-19封锁的情况下，就像奥地利和其他欧洲国家最近宣布的那样。一周前，大范围封锁的风险似乎很小——现在不那么大了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Why High Gas Prices Will Stick Around for a While<blockquote>高油价将持续一段时间的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Why High Gas Prices Will Stick Around for a While<blockquote>高油价将持续一段时间的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 14:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Bad news for your wallet: Eye-watering pump prices for gasoline are likely here for a while.</p><p><blockquote>对你的钱包来说是个坏消息：令人瞠目结舌的汽油价格可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> Worse still, Tuesday’s announcement by the Biden administration to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) likely won’t have a prolonged effect on dampening pump prices, experts say.</p><p><blockquote>专家表示，更糟糕的是，拜登政府周二宣布从战略石油储备（SPR）中释放石油可能不会对抑制油价产生长期影响。</blockquote></p><p> Other significant factors will keep them elevated longer term, including actions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, known as OPEC+, green energy policies in the U.S., and investor demands.</p><p><blockquote>其他重要因素将使其长期保持高位，包括石油输出国组织和俄罗斯（即欧佩克+）的行动、美国的绿色能源政策以及投资者的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think the SPR release will help that much,” says Stewart Glickman, a senior equity analyst at CFRA. “You’ll likely get a short-term alleviation from the pain in a similar way to taking an aspirin to fix a headache.”</p><p><blockquote>CFRA高级股票分析师斯图尔特·格利克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示：“我认为SPR的发布不会有太大帮助。”“你可能会像服用阿司匹林治疗头痛一样短期缓解疼痛。”</blockquote></p><p> Across the U.S., gas prices averaged $3.40 a gallon as of Nov. 23, up 61% from $2.11 a year ago, according to AAA. Glickman says they could easily go as high as $3.70, depending on the oil price. Likewise, prices for reformulated gasoline futures contracts on the CME have rallied over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据AAA的数据，截至11月23日，美国各地的汽油平均价格为每加仑3.40美元，比一年前的2.11美元上涨了61%。Glickman表示，根据油价的不同，它们很容易升至3.70美元。同样，芝加哥商品交易所重新制定的汽油期货合约价格在过去一年中也有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The cause of high gas prices is simple: Oil supplies are not likely to keep up with increases in demand as the global economy rebounds from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. Typically, excess demand leads to higher oil prices which then translate into rising gas prices. Brent crude, the European benchmark, was recently fetching $82 a barrel up from about $47 a year ago, according to TradingEconomics.com.</p><p><blockquote>天然气价格高企的原因很简单：随着全球经济从Covid-19大流行封锁中反弹，石油供应不太可能跟上需求的增长。通常，需求过剩会导致油价上涨，进而转化为天然气价格上涨。根据TradingEconomics.com的数据，欧洲基准布伦特原油最近的价格从一年前的每桶约47美元上涨至82美元。</blockquote></p><p> Three major factors are likely to keep the price elevated over the next year. The first is OPEC+, which has modest oil production increases planned. “OPEC+ is sticking to its steady progression of quota increases, yet its actual production deficit continues to grow,” notes a Morningstar report.</p><p><blockquote>三个主要因素可能会使价格在明年保持高位。首先是欧佩克+，该组织计划适度增加石油产量。晨星公司的一份报告指出：“欧佩克+坚持稳步增加配额，但其实际产量赤字仍在继续增长。”</blockquote></p><p> That lack of OPEC+ supply response should be worrying. Crude demand is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels next year, says Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at TortoiseEcofin. In other words, supply increases from the oil cartel likely won’t keep up with growth in demand.</p><p><blockquote>欧佩克+缺乏供应反应应该令人担忧。TortoiseEcofin投资组合经理Rob Thummel表示，预计明年原油需求将超过新冠疫情爆发前的水平。换句话说，石油卡特尔的供应增长可能跟不上需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> The second issue is that the Biden administration policies are restricting a supply response from the U.S. energy industry. It might sound brutal but the noble goal of promoting clean energy is helping elevate gas prices. “[The administration’s approach] is the first to be fairly hostile towards the domestic oil and gas industry,” says a recent report from CFRA. “Any policy that effectively deters incremental supply of crude oil should elevate prices.” And it has seemingly done just that.</p><p><blockquote>第二个问题是拜登政府的政策正在限制美国能源行业的供应反应。这听起来可能很残酷，但推广清洁能源的崇高目标是帮助提高天然气价格。CFRA最近的一份报告称：“[政府的做法]是第一个对国内石油和天然气行业相当敌视的做法。”“任何有效阻止原油供应增量的政策都应该会抬高价格。”它似乎已经做到了。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are also having an impact on oil prices. Wall Street has long wanted to see exploration-and-production (E&Ps) companies take a more measured approach to expanding production. The energy industry overexpanded during boom times with new exploration-and-development projects. But now big oil has finally gotten the message: look after shareholders before anything else.</p><p><blockquote>投资者也在对油价产生影响。华尔街长期以来一直希望看到勘探与生产(E&Ps)公司采取更加谨慎的方式来扩大产量。随着新的勘探和开发项目，能源行业在繁荣时期过度扩张。但现在大型石油公司终于明白了这一点：首先要照顾股东。</blockquote></p><p> “Once spendthrift E&Ps continue to keep their purse strings drawn tight, eliminating the former source of incremental supply,” the Morningstar report states. The result: Oil inventories could plummet to levels not seen in over half a decade.</p><p><blockquote>晨星报告指出：“一旦挥霍无度的勘探与生产公司继续收紧钱包，就会消除以前的增量供应来源。”结果是：石油库存可能会暴跌至五年来未见的水平。</blockquote></p><p> What can investors do to mitigate these wallet-emptying fuel costs? Try buying unhedged oil stocks such as ConocoPhillips (ticker: COP) or Occidental Petroleum (OXY), says CFRA. Both look poised to benefit from next year’s likely high oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以做些什么来减轻这些掏空钱包的燃料成本？CFRA表示，尝试购买未对冲的石油股，例如康菲石油公司（股票代码：COP）或西方石油公司（OXY）。两家公司看起来都有望从明年可能的高油价中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, oil and gasoline prices could fall if demand falls, such as in the event of another wave of Covid-19 lockdowns, like those recently announced in Austria and other European countries. A week ago, the risk of widespread lockdowns seemed remote—now less so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果需求下降，石油和汽油价格可能会下跌，例如在另一波Covid-19封锁的情况下，就像奥地利和其他欧洲国家最近宣布的那样。一周前，大范围封锁的风险似乎很小——现在不那么大了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-reasons-why-high-gas-prices-will-stick-around-51637745300?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-reasons-why-high-gas-prices-will-stick-around-51637745300?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106704969","content_text":"Bad news for your wallet: Eye-watering pump prices for gasoline are likely here for a while.\nWorse still, Tuesday’s announcement by the Biden administration to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) likely won’t have a prolonged effect on dampening pump prices, experts say.\nOther significant factors will keep them elevated longer term, including actions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, known as OPEC+, green energy policies in the U.S., and investor demands.\n“I don’t think the SPR release will help that much,” says Stewart Glickman, a senior equity analyst at CFRA. “You’ll likely get a short-term alleviation from the pain in a similar way to taking an aspirin to fix a headache.”\nAcross the U.S., gas prices averaged $3.40 a gallon as of Nov. 23, up 61% from $2.11 a year ago, according to AAA. Glickman says they could easily go as high as $3.70, depending on the oil price. Likewise, prices for reformulated gasoline futures contracts on the CME have rallied over the past year.\nThe cause of high gas prices is simple: Oil supplies are not likely to keep up with increases in demand as the global economy rebounds from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. Typically, excess demand leads to higher oil prices which then translate into rising gas prices. Brent crude, the European benchmark, was recently fetching $82 a barrel up from about $47 a year ago, according to TradingEconomics.com.\nThree major factors are likely to keep the price elevated over the next year. The first is OPEC+, which has modest oil production increases planned. “OPEC+ is sticking to its steady progression of quota increases, yet its actual production deficit continues to grow,” notes a Morningstar report.\nThat lack of OPEC+ supply response should be worrying. Crude demand is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels next year, says Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at TortoiseEcofin. In other words, supply increases from the oil cartel likely won’t keep up with growth in demand.\nThe second issue is that the Biden administration policies are restricting a supply response from the U.S. energy industry. It might sound brutal but the noble goal of promoting clean energy is helping elevate gas prices. “[The administration’s approach] is the first to be fairly hostile towards the domestic oil and gas industry,” says a recent report from CFRA. “Any policy that effectively deters incremental supply of crude oil should elevate prices.” And it has seemingly done just that.\nInvestors are also having an impact on oil prices. Wall Street has long wanted to see exploration-and-production (E&Ps) companies take a more measured approach to expanding production. The energy industry overexpanded during boom times with new exploration-and-development projects. But now big oil has finally gotten the message: look after shareholders before anything else.\n“Once spendthrift E&Ps continue to keep their purse strings drawn tight, eliminating the former source of incremental supply,” the Morningstar report states. The result: Oil inventories could plummet to levels not seen in over half a decade.\nWhat can investors do to mitigate these wallet-emptying fuel costs? Try buying unhedged oil stocks such as ConocoPhillips (ticker: COP) or Occidental Petroleum (OXY), says CFRA. Both look poised to benefit from next year’s likely high oil prices.\nOf course, oil and gasoline prices could fall if demand falls, such as in the event of another wave of Covid-19 lockdowns, like those recently announced in Austria and other European countries. A week ago, the risk of widespread lockdowns seemed remote—now less so.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874791052"}
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