bluefun
2021-11-25
Gogogo asml
ASML: It's A Leading Semiconductor Player, But Don't Buy Now<blockquote>ASML：它是领先的半导体公司，但现在不要购买</blockquote>
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It has no competitors in this market.</li> <li>Investors have been willing to pay up for its dominance in this market.</li> <li>However, its current valuation looks stretched, as growth is expected to slow.</li> <li>We discuss why we think investors should wait for a deeper retracement first before considering adding exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad6d47b090e53e0f884bb297357356fb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 正在为领先的代工厂提供关键的极紫外线光刻机。它在这个市场上没有竞争对手。</li><li>投资者愿意为其在这个市场的主导地位买单。</li><li>然而，由于增长预计将放缓，其目前的估值看起来捉襟见肘。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者应该先等待更深的回撤，然后再考虑增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is one of the leading players in the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market. As the only player capable of manufacturing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML has no competitors in this category. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), and Intel (INTC) have to depend on ASML to supply these highly coveted and costly machines. In addition, the secular demand drivers underpinning the 5G ramp, IoT, autonomous vehicles, and high-performance computing will continue to benefit ASML EUV demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) 是晶圆制造设备 (WFE) 市场的领先企业之一。作为唯一有能力制造极紫外线 (EUV) 光刻机的参与者，ASML 在这一类别中没有竞争对手。台积电 (TSM)、三星 (OTC: SSNLF) 和英特尔 (INTC) 必须依靠 ASML 来供应这些令人垂涎且昂贵的机器。此外，支撑 5G 斜坡、物联网、自动驾驶汽车和高性能计算的长期需求驱动因素将继续有利于 ASML EUV 需求。</blockquote></p><p> ASML also telegraphed a backlog that amounted to EUR 19.6B in FQ3, including EUR 11.6B in EUV. Consequently, it has given them revenue visibility until early 2023, as the company continues to add capacity.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 还表示，第三季度积压订单达 19.6B 欧元，其中 EUV 积压订单达 11.6B 欧元。因此，随着公司继续增加产能，它为他们提供了直到 2023 年初的收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we believe that a significant amount of growth premium has been baked into the stock's current valuation. It leaves little margin for error and would require ASML to execute immaculately. While we do not question management's ability to execute, we are also concerned about the potential or a correction due to excess capacity from 2023/24 onwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为该股目前的估值中已经包含了大量的增长溢价。它几乎没有留下错误的余地，并且需要ASML完美地执行。虽然我们不质疑管理层的执行能力，但我们也担心从 2023/24 年开始产能过剩可能导致或纠正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ASML Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ASML 股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169b4c2f1ad5b898301963a7c316e12e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 股票年初至今表现（截至 11 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It has been a fabulous year for ASML investors. The stock's momentum has been robust all year as it rode the secular drivers underpinning its industry. Moreover, given its dominance in EUV lithography, investors are willing to continue paying up to own its shares. As a result, ASML stock's YTD gain of 65.6% easily outperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 26.7%. However, its WFE rival Applied Materials (AMAT) stock is slightly ahead with a YTD gain of 72.5%.</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 投资者来说，这是精彩的一年。该股全年势头强劲，因为它借助了支撑其行业的长期驱动力。此外，鉴于其在EUV光刻领域的主导地位，投资者愿意继续支付高额费用持有其股份。因此，ASML 股票年初至今 65.6% 的涨幅轻松超过了景顺 QQQ ETF (QQQ) 年初至今 26.7% 的回报率。然而，其 WFE 竞争对手应用材料公司 (AMAT) 的股票略微领先，年初至今涨幅为 72.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Strong 2021 for ASML. What about its Prognosis Moving Forward?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ASML 强劲的 2021 年。它未来的预后如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2983887c701a83a264bdfae1302ba7c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SEMI 2021 mid-year total equipment forecast by segment. Source: SEMI</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年年中按细分市场划分的总设备预测。来源：SEMI</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62038d494d773331d57f45fb3bf07df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML quarterly revenue & YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 季度收入及同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It has been a banner year for the semiconductor industry and the WFE market. SEMI estimated that WFE sales would increase by 33.5% YoY in 2021. ASML guided for its revenue to grow by 35% YoY in FY21. Given the company's solid performance in FQ1-FQ3 so far, we believe that ASML's guidance is highly credible. It's also well in line with the industry's forecasts, so it's highly reasonable as well. Despite the supply chain problems that ASML is facing, it still expects a robust FQ4, guiding for revenue of between EUR 4.9B to EUR 5.2B. CEO Peter Wennink emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>对于半导体行业和WFE市场来说，这是辉煌的一年。SEMI 预计 2021 年 WFE 销售额将同比增长 33.5%。ASML 预计 2021 财年收入将同比增长 35%。鉴于该公司迄今为止在第一季度至第三季度的稳健表现，我们认为 ASML 的指引非常可信。这也非常符合行业的预测，所以也是非常合理的。尽管 ASML 面临供应链问题，但它仍预计第四季度将表现强劲，预计收入在 4.9B 欧元至 5.2B 欧元之间。首席执行官 Peter Wennink 强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments</i>from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. These end market trends are driving strong demand across all market segments and across our entire technology portfolio. <i>Therefore, we continue to increase our capacity</i>for all of our products to meet customer capacity and technology requirements. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e67ec84e5d14097765f5787d32fe192e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML share of revenue by technology. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><i>我们看到所有细分市场的客户需求持续强劲</i>来自高级和成熟节点，推动我们整个产品组合的需求。这些终端市场趋势正在推动所有细分市场和我们整个技术组合的强劲需求。<i>因此，我们继续增加产能</i>我们所有的产品都能满足客户的产能和技术要求。（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 按技术划分的收入份额。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380359fecb47be9aa6ce3c11d93d88d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML sales count of EUV machines. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML EUV机器的销售数量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> EUV has driven sales for ASML tremendously over the last three years. We can easily glean from the growth cadence of the unit sales, and EUV's share of the revenue. In FQ3, EUV's share of revenue remains influential and consistent at 54%. In addition, its foundry customers have telegraphed their plans to increase CapEx intensity moving forward to support robust underlying demand. Therefore, we believe EUV's share of revenue will remain robust.</p><p><blockquote>在过去三年中，EUV 极大地推动了 ASML 的销售额。我们可以轻松地从单位销售的增长速度和 EUV 的收入份额中收集信息。在第三季度，EUV 的收入份额仍然具有影响力，并且稳定在 54%。此外，其代工厂客户已表示计划增加资本支出强度，以支持强劲的潜在需求。因此，我们相信 EUV 的收入份额将保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, it's also important to note that its DUV systems are critical in driving ASML's revenue. Hence, while the secular demand underpinning EUV's strength is commendable, the concern of overcapacity has been widely discussed along the mature nodes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，其 DUV 系统对于推动 ASML 的收入至关重要。因此，尽管支撑 EUV 实力的长期需求值得称赞，但对产能过剩的担忧已在成熟节点上得到广泛讨论。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC CEO C.C. Wei also discussed the possibility of an \"inventory correction\" moving forward. He articulated:</p><p><blockquote>台积电首席执行官C.C。魏还讨论了未来“库存调整”的可能性。他说：</blockquote></p><p> Let me say that while we do not rule out the possibility of an inventory correction, but we expect TSMC's capacity remain very tight in 2021 and throughout 2022. This is because of our technology leadership position. And even there's a correction to occur, we believe it could be less volatile for TSMC than previous downturn due to our underlying structural megatrend of 5G-related and HPC applications. (from TSMC's FQ3'21 earnings call) Hence, TSM recognizes that the potential for excess capacity could affect the trailing nodes much more than leading nodes. However, TSM's CapEx is heavily focused on the leading-edge, as it accounted for 80% of its CapEx investments. Therefore, a potential downturn is less likely to hit the foundry leader significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我要说的是，虽然我们不排除库存调整的可能性，但我们预计台积电的产能在 2021 年和整个 2022 年仍然非常紧张。这是因为我们的技术领先地位。即使出现调整，我们相信台积电的波动性也可能低于之前的低迷，因为我们 5G 相关和 HPC 应用的潜在结构性大趋势。（摘自台积电 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，台积电认识到产能过剩的可能性对落后节点的影响可能比领先节点大得多。然而，TSM 的资本支出主要集中在前沿，因为它占其资本支出投资的 80%。因此，潜在的低迷不太可能对代工厂领导者造成重大打击。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the problems could intensify in the automotive market. TSMC emphasized that it discovered that the automotive supply chain is very complex and challenging to grasp well. CEO C.C. Wei emphasized: \"Let me specifically point it out. The automotive supply chain actually is quite long and complex. It's more complicated than we initially thought.\"</p><p><blockquote>此外，汽车市场的问题可能会加剧。台积电强调，发现汽车供应链非常复杂，要很好地把握具有挑战性。首席执行官C.C。魏强调：“我特别指出来，汽车供应链其实相当长，也相当复杂，比我们最初想象的还要复杂。”</blockquote></p><p> Even ASML had cautioned that it has also been unable to fully understand the bottlenecks in the supply chain. While the company has attempted its best to model and survey, it hasn't found a viable answer. In response to an analyst's question on the source of the supply bottlenecks, CEO Peter Wennink accentuated (edited):</p><p><blockquote>就连ASML也警告称，它也无法完全了解供应链中的瓶颈。虽然该公司已经尽了最大努力进行建模和调查，但尚未找到可行的答案。在回答分析师关于供应瓶颈根源的问题时，首席执行官 Peter Wennink 强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So -- and the real answer is we don't know</i>. Because somehow we haven't been able to connect all the dots that actually are the underlying drivers for this demand. There's some rumors out there that the brokers and the distributors are stocking up all the inventory to drive up the prices. I know one thing that the demand for mature, for DUV dry has by far exceeded our expectations. Some of it will be panic ordering by the customers of our customers. But it's too big to just be panic ordering. <i>So there is this underlying trend that we really don't understand fully.</i>(from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <b>So, is ASML Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>所以——真正的答案是我们不知道</i>.因为不知何故，我们没能把所有的点联系起来，而这些点实际上是这种需求的潜在驱动力。有传言说经纪人和分销商正在囤积所有库存以推高价格。我知道一件事，对成熟的，对DUV干的需求已经远远超出了我们的预期。其中一些将是我们客户的客户恐慌性订购。但是它太大了，不能只是恐慌订购。<i>所以有一个我们真的没有完全理解的潜在趋势。</i>（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>那么，ASML 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Much has been said about ASML's dominance in leading-edge EUV systems and how it will continue to entrench its leadership. But, it may be helpful for investors to remember that its mature nodes systems also drive the company's stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>关于 ASML 在领先 EUV 系统领域的主导地位以及它将如何继续巩固其领导地位，人们已经说了很多。但是，投资者应该记住，其成熟的节点系统也推动了该公司的股票估值，这可能会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Mordor Intelligence estimates that the EUV market would grow by a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2026. Considering ASML's FY21 guidance of 35% YoY growth, ASML expects slower growth ahead even with the capacity ramp. Wennink also suggested that corrections cannot be ruled out, even though he emphasized that it's unlikely to happen soon. He mentioned (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Mordor Intelligence估计，从2020年到2026年，EUV市场的CAGR将增长15%。考虑到 ASML 2021 财年同比增长 35% 的指导，ASML 预计即使产能增加，未来增长也会放缓。温宁克还表示，不能排除修正的可能性，尽管他强调这不太可能很快发生。他提到（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> Yes. I mean, we have corrections. <i>We have always seen corrections in our industry. I'm not going to say that they're not there</i>. But we have to look at some of the trends that we're also seeing. And we look at the announcement of the build-out of new capacity. Just refer to the US chip sector, EUR 52 billion, of which EUR 40 billion is for basically to support expansion of capacity. That's going to happen over the next couple of years. It will take 2 to 3 years. So when will this inevitable correction come, I don't think it's likely to come anywhere soon. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc259fe73c80630f1e3482dab4712cca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote>是的。我是说，我们有更正。<i>我们一直看到我们行业的调整。我不会说他们不在那里</i>但我们必须看看我们也看到的一些趋势。我们关注新产能建设的公告。以美国芯片行业为例，520亿欧元，其中400亿欧元主要用于支持产能扩张。这将在未来几年内发生。需要2到3年的时间。所以这种不可避免的调整什么时候会到来，我认为它不太可能很快到来。（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML是。收入意味着共识。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We applaud management for having the confidence to issue long-term guidance of 11% CAGR from 2020 to 2030. Management also provided revenue visibility till FY25, as it expected revenue of between EUR 24B and EUR 30B. Consensus estimates point to revenue of EUR 28.5B, which is at the higher end of ASML's mid-term guidance. Therefore, consensus estimates imply a revenue CAGR of 11.1% over the next four years, aligning with ASML's long-term guidance. Notably, it's also in line with Mordor Intelligence's estimates from FY20. ASML is projected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 15.3% from FY20 to FY26. Hence, we are confident that the company's revenue guidance and the consensus estimates are well-aligned and credible.</p><p><blockquote>我们赞扬管理层有信心发布2020年至2030年复合年增长率为11%的长期指引。管理层还提供了 2025 财年之前的收入可见性，因为它预计收入在 24B 欧元到 30B 欧元之间。普遍估计收入为 28.5B 欧元，处于 ASML 中期指引的上限。因此，共识估计意味着未来四年的收入复合年增长率为 11.1%，与 ASML 的长期指引一致。值得注意的是，这也符合魔多情报2020财年的估计。ASML 预计从 2020 财年到 26 财年，其收入将以 15.3% 的复合年增长率增长。因此，我们相信公司的收入指引和共识估计是一致且可信的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c022f15bd09540111ab4db82dcff88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bc2b2d8f96dd007a5c727b7b0762c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe the clear revenue runway ahead for ASML has given investors confidence to continue paying a premium for ASML stock. The stock is currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 35.3x, 31.2% above its 3Y mean of 26.9x.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，ASML 未来清晰的收入跑道让投资者有信心继续为 ASML 股票支付溢价。该股目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 35.3 倍，比 3 年平均水平 26.9 倍高出 31.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, ASML stock has found support whenever its NTM EBITDA multiple reached about 32.3x in 2021. The stock is trading at about 9.3% above this support level. Despite that, we are cautious about paying such a high premium for a stock where we consider at least two to three years of EBITDA growth could have been priced in.</p><p><blockquote>然而，每当 2021 年 NTM EBITDA 倍数达到约 32.3 倍时，ASML 股票都会找到支撑。该股的交易价格较该支撑位高出约 9.3%。尽管如此，我们对为一只股票支付如此高的溢价持谨慎态度，因为我们认为至少两到三年的 EBITDA 增长可能已经被定价。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that ASML stock is a high-quality stock with a clear revenue runway. But, we are careful about paying the current premium asked. Therefore, we encourage investors to wait for a deeper retracement for a safer entry point.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，ASML 股票是一只具有清晰收入跑道的优质股票。但是，我们对支付当前要求的保费很谨慎。因此，我们鼓励投资者等待更深的回撤，以获得更安全的入场点。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate ASML at Neutral for now</i>. But we may consider adding exposure if we observe a meaningful retracement.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>目前将 ASML 评级为中性</i>但如果我们观察到有意义的回撤，我们可能会考虑增加风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> Written by JR Research</p><p><blockquote>作者：JR Research</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's A Leading Semiconductor Player, But Don't Buy Now<blockquote>ASML：它是领先的半导体公司，但现在不要购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's A Leading Semiconductor Player, But Don't Buy Now<blockquote>ASML：它是领先的半导体公司，但现在不要购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML is supplying the critical extreme ultraviolet lithography machines for the leading-edge foundries. It has no competitors in this market.</li> <li>Investors have been willing to pay up for its dominance in this market.</li> <li>However, its current valuation looks stretched, as growth is expected to slow.</li> <li>We discuss why we think investors should wait for a deeper retracement first before considering adding exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad6d47b090e53e0f884bb297357356fb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 正在为领先的代工厂提供关键的极紫外线光刻机。它在这个市场上没有竞争对手。</li><li>投资者愿意为其在这个市场的主导地位买单。</li><li>然而，由于增长预计将放缓，其目前的估值看起来捉襟见肘。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者应该先等待更深的回撤，然后再考虑增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is one of the leading players in the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market. As the only player capable of manufacturing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML has no competitors in this category. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), and Intel (INTC) have to depend on ASML to supply these highly coveted and costly machines. In addition, the secular demand drivers underpinning the 5G ramp, IoT, autonomous vehicles, and high-performance computing will continue to benefit ASML EUV demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) 是晶圆制造设备 (WFE) 市场的领先企业之一。作为唯一有能力制造极紫外线 (EUV) 光刻机的参与者，ASML 在这一类别中没有竞争对手。台积电 (TSM)、三星 (OTC: SSNLF) 和英特尔 (INTC) 必须依靠 ASML 来供应这些令人垂涎且昂贵的机器。此外，支撑 5G 斜坡、物联网、自动驾驶汽车和高性能计算的长期需求驱动因素将继续有利于 ASML EUV 需求。</blockquote></p><p> ASML also telegraphed a backlog that amounted to EUR 19.6B in FQ3, including EUR 11.6B in EUV. Consequently, it has given them revenue visibility until early 2023, as the company continues to add capacity.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 还表示，第三季度积压订单达 19.6B 欧元，其中 EUV 积压订单达 11.6B 欧元。因此，随着公司继续增加产能，它为他们提供了直到 2023 年初的收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we believe that a significant amount of growth premium has been baked into the stock's current valuation. It leaves little margin for error and would require ASML to execute immaculately. While we do not question management's ability to execute, we are also concerned about the potential or a correction due to excess capacity from 2023/24 onwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为该股目前的估值中已经包含了大量的增长溢价。它几乎没有留下错误的余地，并且需要ASML完美地执行。虽然我们不质疑管理层的执行能力，但我们也担心从 2023/24 年开始产能过剩可能导致或纠正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ASML Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ASML 股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169b4c2f1ad5b898301963a7c316e12e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 股票年初至今表现（截至 11 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It has been a fabulous year for ASML investors. The stock's momentum has been robust all year as it rode the secular drivers underpinning its industry. Moreover, given its dominance in EUV lithography, investors are willing to continue paying up to own its shares. As a result, ASML stock's YTD gain of 65.6% easily outperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 26.7%. However, its WFE rival Applied Materials (AMAT) stock is slightly ahead with a YTD gain of 72.5%.</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 投资者来说，这是精彩的一年。该股全年势头强劲，因为它借助了支撑其行业的长期驱动力。此外，鉴于其在EUV光刻领域的主导地位，投资者愿意继续支付高额费用持有其股份。因此，ASML 股票年初至今 65.6% 的涨幅轻松超过了景顺 QQQ ETF (QQQ) 年初至今 26.7% 的回报率。然而，其 WFE 竞争对手应用材料公司 (AMAT) 的股票略微领先，年初至今涨幅为 72.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Strong 2021 for ASML. What about its Prognosis Moving Forward?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ASML 强劲的 2021 年。它未来的预后如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2983887c701a83a264bdfae1302ba7c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SEMI 2021 mid-year total equipment forecast by segment. Source: SEMI</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年年中按细分市场划分的总设备预测。来源：SEMI</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62038d494d773331d57f45fb3bf07df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML quarterly revenue & YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 季度收入及同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It has been a banner year for the semiconductor industry and the WFE market. SEMI estimated that WFE sales would increase by 33.5% YoY in 2021. ASML guided for its revenue to grow by 35% YoY in FY21. Given the company's solid performance in FQ1-FQ3 so far, we believe that ASML's guidance is highly credible. It's also well in line with the industry's forecasts, so it's highly reasonable as well. Despite the supply chain problems that ASML is facing, it still expects a robust FQ4, guiding for revenue of between EUR 4.9B to EUR 5.2B. CEO Peter Wennink emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>对于半导体行业和WFE市场来说，这是辉煌的一年。SEMI 预计 2021 年 WFE 销售额将同比增长 33.5%。ASML 预计 2021 财年收入将同比增长 35%。鉴于该公司迄今为止在第一季度至第三季度的稳健表现，我们认为 ASML 的指引非常可信。这也非常符合行业的预测，所以也是非常合理的。尽管 ASML 面临供应链问题，但它仍预计第四季度将表现强劲，预计收入在 4.9B 欧元至 5.2B 欧元之间。首席执行官 Peter Wennink 强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments</i>from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. These end market trends are driving strong demand across all market segments and across our entire technology portfolio. <i>Therefore, we continue to increase our capacity</i>for all of our products to meet customer capacity and technology requirements. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e67ec84e5d14097765f5787d32fe192e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML share of revenue by technology. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><i>我们看到所有细分市场的客户需求持续强劲</i>来自高级和成熟节点，推动我们整个产品组合的需求。这些终端市场趋势正在推动所有细分市场和我们整个技术组合的强劲需求。<i>因此，我们继续增加产能</i>我们所有的产品都能满足客户的产能和技术要求。（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 按技术划分的收入份额。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380359fecb47be9aa6ce3c11d93d88d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML sales count of EUV machines. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML EUV机器的销售数量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> EUV has driven sales for ASML tremendously over the last three years. We can easily glean from the growth cadence of the unit sales, and EUV's share of the revenue. In FQ3, EUV's share of revenue remains influential and consistent at 54%. In addition, its foundry customers have telegraphed their plans to increase CapEx intensity moving forward to support robust underlying demand. Therefore, we believe EUV's share of revenue will remain robust.</p><p><blockquote>在过去三年中，EUV 极大地推动了 ASML 的销售额。我们可以轻松地从单位销售的增长速度和 EUV 的收入份额中收集信息。在第三季度，EUV 的收入份额仍然具有影响力，并且稳定在 54%。此外，其代工厂客户已表示计划增加资本支出强度，以支持强劲的潜在需求。因此，我们相信 EUV 的收入份额将保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, it's also important to note that its DUV systems are critical in driving ASML's revenue. Hence, while the secular demand underpinning EUV's strength is commendable, the concern of overcapacity has been widely discussed along the mature nodes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，其 DUV 系统对于推动 ASML 的收入至关重要。因此，尽管支撑 EUV 实力的长期需求值得称赞，但对产能过剩的担忧已在成熟节点上得到广泛讨论。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC CEO C.C. Wei also discussed the possibility of an \"inventory correction\" moving forward. He articulated:</p><p><blockquote>台积电首席执行官C.C。魏还讨论了未来“库存调整”的可能性。他说：</blockquote></p><p> Let me say that while we do not rule out the possibility of an inventory correction, but we expect TSMC's capacity remain very tight in 2021 and throughout 2022. This is because of our technology leadership position. And even there's a correction to occur, we believe it could be less volatile for TSMC than previous downturn due to our underlying structural megatrend of 5G-related and HPC applications. (from TSMC's FQ3'21 earnings call) Hence, TSM recognizes that the potential for excess capacity could affect the trailing nodes much more than leading nodes. However, TSM's CapEx is heavily focused on the leading-edge, as it accounted for 80% of its CapEx investments. Therefore, a potential downturn is less likely to hit the foundry leader significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我要说的是，虽然我们不排除库存调整的可能性，但我们预计台积电的产能在 2021 年和整个 2022 年仍然非常紧张。这是因为我们的技术领先地位。即使出现调整，我们相信台积电的波动性也可能低于之前的低迷，因为我们 5G 相关和 HPC 应用的潜在结构性大趋势。（摘自台积电 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，台积电认识到产能过剩的可能性对落后节点的影响可能比领先节点大得多。然而，TSM 的资本支出主要集中在前沿，因为它占其资本支出投资的 80%。因此，潜在的低迷不太可能对代工厂领导者造成重大打击。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the problems could intensify in the automotive market. TSMC emphasized that it discovered that the automotive supply chain is very complex and challenging to grasp well. CEO C.C. Wei emphasized: \"Let me specifically point it out. The automotive supply chain actually is quite long and complex. It's more complicated than we initially thought.\"</p><p><blockquote>此外，汽车市场的问题可能会加剧。台积电强调，发现汽车供应链非常复杂，要很好地把握具有挑战性。首席执行官C.C。魏强调：“我特别指出来，汽车供应链其实相当长，也相当复杂，比我们最初想象的还要复杂。”</blockquote></p><p> Even ASML had cautioned that it has also been unable to fully understand the bottlenecks in the supply chain. While the company has attempted its best to model and survey, it hasn't found a viable answer. In response to an analyst's question on the source of the supply bottlenecks, CEO Peter Wennink accentuated (edited):</p><p><blockquote>就连ASML也警告称，它也无法完全了解供应链中的瓶颈。虽然该公司已经尽了最大努力进行建模和调查，但尚未找到可行的答案。在回答分析师关于供应瓶颈根源的问题时，首席执行官 Peter Wennink 强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So -- and the real answer is we don't know</i>. Because somehow we haven't been able to connect all the dots that actually are the underlying drivers for this demand. There's some rumors out there that the brokers and the distributors are stocking up all the inventory to drive up the prices. I know one thing that the demand for mature, for DUV dry has by far exceeded our expectations. Some of it will be panic ordering by the customers of our customers. But it's too big to just be panic ordering. <i>So there is this underlying trend that we really don't understand fully.</i>(from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <b>So, is ASML Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>所以——真正的答案是我们不知道</i>.因为不知何故，我们没能把所有的点联系起来，而这些点实际上是这种需求的潜在驱动力。有传言说经纪人和分销商正在囤积所有库存以推高价格。我知道一件事，对成熟的，对DUV干的需求已经远远超出了我们的预期。其中一些将是我们客户的客户恐慌性订购。但是它太大了，不能只是恐慌订购。<i>所以有一个我们真的没有完全理解的潜在趋势。</i>（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>那么，ASML 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Much has been said about ASML's dominance in leading-edge EUV systems and how it will continue to entrench its leadership. But, it may be helpful for investors to remember that its mature nodes systems also drive the company's stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>关于 ASML 在领先 EUV 系统领域的主导地位以及它将如何继续巩固其领导地位，人们已经说了很多。但是，投资者应该记住，其成熟的节点系统也推动了该公司的股票估值，这可能会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Mordor Intelligence estimates that the EUV market would grow by a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2026. Considering ASML's FY21 guidance of 35% YoY growth, ASML expects slower growth ahead even with the capacity ramp. Wennink also suggested that corrections cannot be ruled out, even though he emphasized that it's unlikely to happen soon. He mentioned (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Mordor Intelligence估计，从2020年到2026年，EUV市场的CAGR将增长15%。考虑到 ASML 2021 财年同比增长 35% 的指导，ASML 预计即使产能增加，未来增长也会放缓。温宁克还表示，不能排除修正的可能性，尽管他强调这不太可能很快发生。他提到（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> Yes. I mean, we have corrections. <i>We have always seen corrections in our industry. I'm not going to say that they're not there</i>. But we have to look at some of the trends that we're also seeing. And we look at the announcement of the build-out of new capacity. Just refer to the US chip sector, EUR 52 billion, of which EUR 40 billion is for basically to support expansion of capacity. That's going to happen over the next couple of years. It will take 2 to 3 years. So when will this inevitable correction come, I don't think it's likely to come anywhere soon. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc259fe73c80630f1e3482dab4712cca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote>是的。我是说，我们有更正。<i>我们一直看到我们行业的调整。我不会说他们不在那里</i>但我们必须看看我们也看到的一些趋势。我们关注新产能建设的公告。以美国芯片行业为例，520亿欧元，其中400亿欧元主要用于支持产能扩张。这将在未来几年内发生。需要2到3年的时间。所以这种不可避免的调整什么时候会到来，我认为它不太可能很快到来。（摘自 ASML 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML是。收入意味着共识。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We applaud management for having the confidence to issue long-term guidance of 11% CAGR from 2020 to 2030. Management also provided revenue visibility till FY25, as it expected revenue of between EUR 24B and EUR 30B. Consensus estimates point to revenue of EUR 28.5B, which is at the higher end of ASML's mid-term guidance. Therefore, consensus estimates imply a revenue CAGR of 11.1% over the next four years, aligning with ASML's long-term guidance. Notably, it's also in line with Mordor Intelligence's estimates from FY20. ASML is projected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 15.3% from FY20 to FY26. Hence, we are confident that the company's revenue guidance and the consensus estimates are well-aligned and credible.</p><p><blockquote>我们赞扬管理层有信心发布2020年至2030年复合年增长率为11%的长期指引。管理层还提供了 2025 财年之前的收入可见性，因为它预计收入在 24B 欧元到 30B 欧元之间。普遍估计收入为 28.5B 欧元，处于 ASML 中期指引的上限。因此，共识估计意味着未来四年的收入复合年增长率为 11.1%，与 ASML 的长期指引一致。值得注意的是，这也符合魔多情报2020财年的估计。ASML 预计从 2020 财年到 26 财年，其收入将以 15.3% 的复合年增长率增长。因此，我们相信公司的收入指引和共识估计是一致且可信的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c022f15bd09540111ab4db82dcff88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bc2b2d8f96dd007a5c727b7b0762c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ASML stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe the clear revenue runway ahead for ASML has given investors confidence to continue paying a premium for ASML stock. The stock is currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 35.3x, 31.2% above its 3Y mean of 26.9x.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，ASML 未来清晰的收入跑道让投资者有信心继续为 ASML 股票支付溢价。该股目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 35.3 倍，比 3 年平均水平 26.9 倍高出 31.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, ASML stock has found support whenever its NTM EBITDA multiple reached about 32.3x in 2021. The stock is trading at about 9.3% above this support level. Despite that, we are cautious about paying such a high premium for a stock where we consider at least two to three years of EBITDA growth could have been priced in.</p><p><blockquote>然而，每当 2021 年 NTM EBITDA 倍数达到约 32.3 倍时，ASML 股票都会找到支撑。该股的交易价格较该支撑位高出约 9.3%。尽管如此，我们对为一只股票支付如此高的溢价持谨慎态度，因为我们认为至少两到三年的 EBITDA 增长可能已经被定价。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that ASML stock is a high-quality stock with a clear revenue runway. But, we are careful about paying the current premium asked. Therefore, we encourage investors to wait for a deeper retracement for a safer entry point.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，ASML 股票是一只具有清晰收入跑道的优质股票。但是，我们对支付当前要求的保费很谨慎。因此，我们鼓励投资者等待更深的回撤，以获得更安全的入场点。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate ASML at Neutral for now</i>. But we may consider adding exposure if we observe a meaningful retracement.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>目前将 ASML 评级为中性</i>但如果我们观察到有意义的回撤，我们可能会考虑增加风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> Written by JR Research</p><p><blockquote>作者：JR Research</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471867-asml-stock-leading-semiconductor-player-valuation-looks-stretched\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471867-asml-stock-leading-semiconductor-player-valuation-looks-stretched","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183200074","content_text":"Summary\n\nASML is supplying the critical extreme ultraviolet lithography machines for the leading-edge foundries. It has no competitors in this market.\nInvestors have been willing to pay up for its dominance in this market.\nHowever, its current valuation looks stretched, as growth is expected to slow.\nWe discuss why we think investors should wait for a deeper retracement first before considering adding exposure.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is one of the leading players in the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market. As the only player capable of manufacturing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML has no competitors in this category. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), and Intel (INTC) have to depend on ASML to supply these highly coveted and costly machines. In addition, the secular demand drivers underpinning the 5G ramp, IoT, autonomous vehicles, and high-performance computing will continue to benefit ASML EUV demand.\nASML also telegraphed a backlog that amounted to EUR 19.6B in FQ3, including EUR 11.6B in EUV. Consequently, it has given them revenue visibility until early 2023, as the company continues to add capacity.\nNevertheless, we believe that a significant amount of growth premium has been baked into the stock's current valuation. It leaves little margin for error and would require ASML to execute immaculately. While we do not question management's ability to execute, we are also concerned about the potential or a correction due to excess capacity from 2023/24 onwards.\nASML Stock YTD Performance\nASML stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).\nIt has been a fabulous year for ASML investors. The stock's momentum has been robust all year as it rode the secular drivers underpinning its industry. Moreover, given its dominance in EUV lithography, investors are willing to continue paying up to own its shares. As a result, ASML stock's YTD gain of 65.6% easily outperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 26.7%. However, its WFE rival Applied Materials (AMAT) stock is slightly ahead with a YTD gain of 72.5%.\nA Strong 2021 for ASML. What about its Prognosis Moving Forward?\nSEMI 2021 mid-year total equipment forecast by segment. Source: SEMI\nASML quarterly revenue & YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nIt has been a banner year for the semiconductor industry and the WFE market. SEMI estimated that WFE sales would increase by 33.5% YoY in 2021. ASML guided for its revenue to grow by 35% YoY in FY21. Given the company's solid performance in FQ1-FQ3 so far, we believe that ASML's guidance is highly credible. It's also well in line with the industry's forecasts, so it's highly reasonable as well. Despite the supply chain problems that ASML is facing, it still expects a robust FQ4, guiding for revenue of between EUR 4.9B to EUR 5.2B. CEO Peter Wennink emphasized (edited):\n\nWe're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segmentsfrom both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. These end market trends are driving strong demand across all market segments and across our entire technology portfolio.\n Therefore, we continue to increase our capacityfor all of our products to meet customer capacity and technology requirements. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nASML share of revenue by technology. Data source: Company filings\nASML sales count of EUV machines. Data source: Company filings\nEUV has driven sales for ASML tremendously over the last three years. We can easily glean from the growth cadence of the unit sales, and EUV's share of the revenue. In FQ3, EUV's share of revenue remains influential and consistent at 54%. In addition, its foundry customers have telegraphed their plans to increase CapEx intensity moving forward to support robust underlying demand. Therefore, we believe EUV's share of revenue will remain robust.\nNevertheless, it's also important to note that its DUV systems are critical in driving ASML's revenue. Hence, while the secular demand underpinning EUV's strength is commendable, the concern of overcapacity has been widely discussed along the mature nodes.\nTSMC CEO C.C. Wei also discussed the possibility of an \"inventory correction\" moving forward. He articulated:\n\n Let me say that while we do not rule out the possibility of an inventory correction, but we expect TSMC's capacity remain very tight in 2021 and throughout 2022. This is because of our technology leadership position. And even there's a correction to occur, we believe it could be less volatile for TSMC than previous downturn due to our underlying structural megatrend of 5G-related and HPC applications. (from TSMC's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nHence, TSM recognizes that the potential for excess capacity could affect the trailing nodes much more than leading nodes. However, TSM's CapEx is heavily focused on the leading-edge, as it accounted for 80% of its CapEx investments. Therefore, a potential downturn is less likely to hit the foundry leader significantly.\nIn addition, the problems could intensify in the automotive market. TSMC emphasized that it discovered that the automotive supply chain is very complex and challenging to grasp well. CEO C.C. Wei emphasized: \"Let me specifically point it out. The automotive supply chain actually is quite long and complex. It's more complicated than we initially thought.\"\nEven ASML had cautioned that it has also been unable to fully understand the bottlenecks in the supply chain. While the company has attempted its best to model and survey, it hasn't found a viable answer. In response to an analyst's question on the source of the supply bottlenecks, CEO Peter Wennink accentuated (edited):\n\nSo -- and the real answer is we don't know. Because somehow we haven't been able to connect all the dots that actually are the underlying drivers for this demand. There's some rumors out there that the brokers and the distributors are stocking up all the inventory to drive up the prices. I know one thing that the demand for mature, for DUV dry has by far exceeded our expectations. Some of it will be panic ordering by the customers of our customers. But it's too big to just be panic ordering.\n So there is this underlying trend that we really don't understand fully.(from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nSo, is ASML Stock a Buy Now?\nMuch has been said about ASML's dominance in leading-edge EUV systems and how it will continue to entrench its leadership. But, it may be helpful for investors to remember that its mature nodes systems also drive the company's stock valuation.\nMordor Intelligence estimates that the EUV market would grow by a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2026. Considering ASML's FY21 guidance of 35% YoY growth, ASML expects slower growth ahead even with the capacity ramp. Wennink also suggested that corrections cannot be ruled out, even though he emphasized that it's unlikely to happen soon. He mentioned (edited):\n\n Yes. I mean, we have corrections.\n We have always seen corrections in our industry. I'm not going to say that they're not there. But we have to look at some of the trends that we're also seeing. And we look at the announcement of the build-out of new capacity. Just refer to the US chip sector, EUR 52 billion, of which EUR 40 billion is for basically to support expansion of capacity. That's going to happen over the next couple of years. It will take 2 to 3 years. So when will this inevitable correction come, I don't think it's likely to come anywhere soon. (from ASML's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nASML est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe applaud management for having the confidence to issue long-term guidance of 11% CAGR from 2020 to 2030. Management also provided revenue visibility till FY25, as it expected revenue of between EUR 24B and EUR 30B. Consensus estimates point to revenue of EUR 28.5B, which is at the higher end of ASML's mid-term guidance. Therefore, consensus estimates imply a revenue CAGR of 11.1% over the next four years, aligning with ASML's long-term guidance. Notably, it's also in line with Mordor Intelligence's estimates from FY20. ASML is projected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 15.3% from FY20 to FY26. Hence, we are confident that the company's revenue guidance and the consensus estimates are well-aligned and credible.\nASML EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nASML stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nWe believe the clear revenue runway ahead for ASML has given investors confidence to continue paying a premium for ASML stock. The stock is currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 35.3x, 31.2% above its 3Y mean of 26.9x.\nHowever, ASML stock has found support whenever its NTM EBITDA multiple reached about 32.3x in 2021. The stock is trading at about 9.3% above this support level. Despite that, we are cautious about paying such a high premium for a stock where we consider at least two to three years of EBITDA growth could have been priced in.\nThere is little doubt that ASML stock is a high-quality stock with a clear revenue runway. But, we are careful about paying the current premium asked. Therefore, we encourage investors to wait for a deeper retracement for a safer entry point.\nConsequently, werate ASML at Neutral for now. But we may consider adding exposure if we observe a meaningful retracement.\nWritten by JR Research","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6054,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877015912"}
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