edward7979
2021-11-25
Overvalued stock zoom, the competitor will catch up.
Zoom Stock: The Pain Has Only Just Begun<blockquote>Zoom股票：痛苦才刚刚开始</blockquote>
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Zoom's third-quarter showed that the threat of a revenue slowdown is real and shares of Zoom are still overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行收益期即将结束，Zoom Video通信公司（ZM）面临着为股东带来负回报的风险。Zoom第三季度的业绩表明，收入放缓的威胁是真实的，Zoom的股价仍然被高估！</blockquote></p><p> <b>A new normal: Slower revenue growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新常态：收入增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic like few companies did. The video chat company experienced an unprecedented revenue surge last year because businesses shut their doors and employees were forced to work from homes. The rise in remote working accelerated the digital transformation trend and Zoom played a key role for a lot of companies to communicate with their employees. Because of the pandemic, Zoom's revenues doubled between Q1'20 and Q2'20… and the business experienced strengthening demand for its video conferencing services in the quarters that followed. In the second-quarter, Zoom's communications platform generated more than $1.0B in revenues for the first time in the firm's history. Revenue growth in the second-quarter, year over year, was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom像很少有公司那样从COVID-19大流行中受益。这家视频聊天公司去年经历了前所未有的收入激增，因为企业关门，员工被迫在家工作。远程工作的兴起加速了数字化转型趋势，Zoom在许多公司与员工沟通方面发挥了关键作用。由于疫情，Zoom的收入在Q1'20和Q2'20之间翻了一番……并且在接下来的几个季度中，该业务对其视频会议服务的需求不断增强。第二季度，Zoom的通信平台在公司历史上首次创造了超过10亿美元的收入。第二季度收入同比增长54%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3432e12a7811f3478fba41c7bc4e75f3\" tg-width=\"1113\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since the second-quarter, however, sales growth has been slowing down. Revenues in the third-quarter were $1.05B, showing a revenue growth rate of only 35% year over year. Zoom, spoiled with accelerating revenue growth rates during the pandemic, is now looking at a material deceleration of growth… and it already has an impact on Zoom's perception as a growth stock. Shares of Zoom cratered 14.7% yesterday, after presentation of the third-quarter earnings card. The one year price return is (52)%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，自第二季度以来，销售增长一直在放缓。第三季度收入为$1.05 B，同比收入增长率仅为35%。Zoom在大流行期间因收入增长率加速而受到破坏，现在正面临增长大幅放缓……这已经对Zoom作为成长型股票的看法产生了影响。在公布第三季度财报后，Zoom股价昨天暴跌14.7%。一年价格回报率为（52）%...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404d0e70eebba8c76faed91a2c62cd21\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What isn't helping shares of Zoom is that the outlook for the fourth-quarter indicates a continual slowdown in revenue growth. Revenues are barely going to grow quarter over quarter in Q4'22, although they will grow 19% year over year to around $1.052B. The outlook for FY 2022 strongly indicates that Zoom's revenue growth rates have peaked… which creates a justification for a material repricing of Zoom's commercial growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>对Zoom股价没有帮助的是，第四季度的前景表明收入增长持续放缓。22年第4季度的收入几乎不会环比增长，尽管它们将同比增长19%，达到$10.52 B左右。2022财年的前景强烈表明Zoom的收入增长率已经见顶……这为对Zoom的商业增长前景进行重大重新定价创造了理由。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9f8963d6bfaddf8f22dd59739d664cd\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Zoom's customers- typically large companies with more than 10 employees or $100 thousand in LTM revenues- continue to use the firm's video chat and conferencing products. However, growth in the most lucrative customer group, those with the highest revenue contribution, is also slowing down. Zoom had 2,507 customers generating more than $100 thousand in annual recurring revenues in the third-quarter… which calculates to a customer group growth rate of 94% year over year. In the second-quarter, Zoom grew this customer category by 131% and growth rates have steadily declined since the first-quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的客户——通常是拥有10名以上员工或LTM收入10万美元的大公司——继续使用该公司的视频聊天和会议产品。然而，最赚钱的客户群（收入贡献最高的客户群）的增长也在放缓。Zoom在第三季度拥有2,507名客户，年经常性收入超过10万美元……按此计算，客户群同比增长率为94%。第二季度，Zoom将这一客户类别增长了131%，自第一季度以来增长率稳步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61c87f6ea3a5b9fec4dd9bfac46a5d3\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Improving customer monetization</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高客户货币化</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom measures its customer monetization with a figure called net dollar expansion rate/NDER. The net dollar expansion rate measures the firm's internal revenue growth on a per-customer basis and expresses how much more money existing customers spend on Zoom's video conferencing platform, from one reporting period to the next. Zoom's NDER has consistently remained above 130%, meaning the firm's average customer increased spending by more than 30% compared to the year-earlier period. A high NDER implies strengthening customer monetization, and success in customer retention and up-selling.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom用一个名为净美元扩张率/NDER的数字来衡量其客户货币化。净美元扩张率衡量公司每个客户的内部收入增长，并表示从一个报告期到下一个报告期，现有客户在Zoom的视频会议平台上多花了多少钱。Zoom的NDER始终保持在130%以上，这意味着该公司的平均客户支出与去年同期相比增加了30%以上。高NDER意味着加强客户货币化，以及在客户保留和追加销售方面的成功。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d6fb78a690b0ec451e1f5c10d8862d\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Expenses are rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>费用在上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom has to constantly innovate and expand its product suite to keep customers happy. But this costs a lot of money. Expenses in the first nine months of the year increased in all expense groups- R&D, S&M and G&A- and, if expenses grow faster than sales, margin declines could be a result of the revenue slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom必须不断创新和扩展其产品套件，以让客户满意。但这要花很多钱。今年前九个月，所有费用组（R&D、S&M和G&A）的费用都有所增加，如果费用增长快于销售额，利润率下降可能是收入放缓的结果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a289263f7337bd53def6903184bf02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zoom is still overvalued...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom仍然被高估...</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst thing that can happen to a growth company like Zoom is that it has to warn of slowing growth because it immediately creates pressure on the valuation. This is what is happening here. The disappointing outlook for Q4'22 also indicates that revenue estimates for Zoom will fall once they get refreshed.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Zoom这样的成长型公司来说，可能发生的最糟糕的事情是，它必须警告增长放缓，因为这会立即给估值带来压力。这就是这里正在发生的事情。22年第4季度令人失望的前景也表明，Zoom的收入预期一旦更新，将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Despite a 39% drop in pricing this year, the video chat firm's growth prospects are overvalued. Zoom is expected to generate revenues of $4.08B this year and $4.75B next year. The revenue growth rate for next year, implied by estimates, is just 16.43%. Despite the sharp slowdown in growth, shares of Zoom still trade at a P-S ratio of 13 (based off of FY 2023 estimates).</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年定价下降了39%，但这家视频聊天公司的增长前景仍被高估。Zoom预计今年和明年的收入分别为$4.08 B和$4.75 B。预计明年的收入增长率仅为16.43%。尽管增长急剧放缓，Zoom股价的市盈率仍为13（基于2023财年的预测）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d057d1b4e1f4d8a4413f80139e6bd8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"654\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Zoom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom is in a critical situation: The world is moving on from the pandemic and it poses a challenge for a business that heavily benefited from digital transformation trends and remote working. New COVID-19 lockdown orders, like the ones that were just implemented in Europe, could accelerate Zoom's growth again. Longer term, the COVID-19 pandemic is poised to come to an end and there is considerable uncertainty as to how Zoom's growth will look like once the world fully returns to normal.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom正处于一个危急的境地：世界正在摆脱疫情，这给从数字化转型趋势和远程工作中受益匪浅的企业带来了挑战。新的COVID-19封锁令（例如刚刚在欧洲实施的封锁令）可能会再次加速Zoom的增长。从长远来看，COVID-19大流行即将结束，一旦世界完全恢复正常，Zoom的增长将如何存在相当大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe we have seen the end of this post-pandemic readjustment. The revenue slowdown is a real problem and Zoom has not found a recipe yet to counter this decline. New product roll-outs may counter the decline in revenue growth temporarily, but 'the new normal' will likely be a post-pandemic period of slower growth!</p><p><blockquote>我不相信我们已经看到了大流行后调整的结束。收入放缓是一个真正的问题，Zoom尚未找到应对这种下降的方法。新产品的推出可能会暂时抵消收入增长的下降，但“新常态”可能是大流行后增长放缓的时期！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Stock: The Pain Has Only Just Begun<blockquote>Zoom股票：痛苦才刚刚开始</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Stock: The Pain Has Only Just Begun<blockquote>Zoom股票：痛苦才刚刚开始</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 16:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Zoom's revenue growth is entering a post-pandemic slump.</li> <li>Growth in key customer groups is also slowing down.</li> <li>Expenses are rising.</li> <li>Zoom is still overvalued.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a48f07a7de30732bcfd17d0d67949f0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LeoPatrizi/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Zoom的收入增长正在进入大流行后的低迷期。</li><li>关键客户群体的增长也在放缓。</li><li>费用在上升。</li><li>Zoom仍然被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LeoPatrizi/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video Communications (ZM) is at risk of generating negative returns for shareholders as a period of pandemic gains is coming to an end. Zoom's third-quarter showed that the threat of a revenue slowdown is real and shares of Zoom are still overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行收益期即将结束，Zoom Video通信公司（ZM）面临着为股东带来负回报的风险。Zoom第三季度的业绩表明，收入放缓的威胁是真实的，Zoom的股价仍然被高估！</blockquote></p><p> <b>A new normal: Slower revenue growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新常态：收入增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic like few companies did. The video chat company experienced an unprecedented revenue surge last year because businesses shut their doors and employees were forced to work from homes. The rise in remote working accelerated the digital transformation trend and Zoom played a key role for a lot of companies to communicate with their employees. Because of the pandemic, Zoom's revenues doubled between Q1'20 and Q2'20… and the business experienced strengthening demand for its video conferencing services in the quarters that followed. In the second-quarter, Zoom's communications platform generated more than $1.0B in revenues for the first time in the firm's history. Revenue growth in the second-quarter, year over year, was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom像很少有公司那样从COVID-19大流行中受益。这家视频聊天公司去年经历了前所未有的收入激增，因为企业关门，员工被迫在家工作。远程工作的兴起加速了数字化转型趋势，Zoom在许多公司与员工沟通方面发挥了关键作用。由于疫情，Zoom的收入在Q1'20和Q2'20之间翻了一番……并且在接下来的几个季度中，该业务对其视频会议服务的需求不断增强。第二季度，Zoom的通信平台在公司历史上首次创造了超过10亿美元的收入。第二季度收入同比增长54%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3432e12a7811f3478fba41c7bc4e75f3\" tg-width=\"1113\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since the second-quarter, however, sales growth has been slowing down. Revenues in the third-quarter were $1.05B, showing a revenue growth rate of only 35% year over year. Zoom, spoiled with accelerating revenue growth rates during the pandemic, is now looking at a material deceleration of growth… and it already has an impact on Zoom's perception as a growth stock. Shares of Zoom cratered 14.7% yesterday, after presentation of the third-quarter earnings card. The one year price return is (52)%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，自第二季度以来，销售增长一直在放缓。第三季度收入为$1.05 B，同比收入增长率仅为35%。Zoom在大流行期间因收入增长率加速而受到破坏，现在正面临增长大幅放缓……这已经对Zoom作为成长型股票的看法产生了影响。在公布第三季度财报后，Zoom股价昨天暴跌14.7%。一年价格回报率为（52）%...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404d0e70eebba8c76faed91a2c62cd21\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What isn't helping shares of Zoom is that the outlook for the fourth-quarter indicates a continual slowdown in revenue growth. Revenues are barely going to grow quarter over quarter in Q4'22, although they will grow 19% year over year to around $1.052B. The outlook for FY 2022 strongly indicates that Zoom's revenue growth rates have peaked… which creates a justification for a material repricing of Zoom's commercial growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>对Zoom股价没有帮助的是，第四季度的前景表明收入增长持续放缓。22年第4季度的收入几乎不会环比增长，尽管它们将同比增长19%，达到$10.52 B左右。2022财年的前景强烈表明Zoom的收入增长率已经见顶……这为对Zoom的商业增长前景进行重大重新定价创造了理由。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9f8963d6bfaddf8f22dd59739d664cd\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Zoom's customers- typically large companies with more than 10 employees or $100 thousand in LTM revenues- continue to use the firm's video chat and conferencing products. However, growth in the most lucrative customer group, those with the highest revenue contribution, is also slowing down. Zoom had 2,507 customers generating more than $100 thousand in annual recurring revenues in the third-quarter… which calculates to a customer group growth rate of 94% year over year. In the second-quarter, Zoom grew this customer category by 131% and growth rates have steadily declined since the first-quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的客户——通常是拥有10名以上员工或LTM收入10万美元的大公司——继续使用该公司的视频聊天和会议产品。然而，最赚钱的客户群（收入贡献最高的客户群）的增长也在放缓。Zoom在第三季度拥有2,507名客户，年经常性收入超过10万美元……按此计算，客户群同比增长率为94%。第二季度，Zoom将这一客户类别增长了131%，自第一季度以来增长率稳步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61c87f6ea3a5b9fec4dd9bfac46a5d3\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Improving customer monetization</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高客户货币化</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom measures its customer monetization with a figure called net dollar expansion rate/NDER. The net dollar expansion rate measures the firm's internal revenue growth on a per-customer basis and expresses how much more money existing customers spend on Zoom's video conferencing platform, from one reporting period to the next. Zoom's NDER has consistently remained above 130%, meaning the firm's average customer increased spending by more than 30% compared to the year-earlier period. A high NDER implies strengthening customer monetization, and success in customer retention and up-selling.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom用一个名为净美元扩张率/NDER的数字来衡量其客户货币化。净美元扩张率衡量公司每个客户的内部收入增长，并表示从一个报告期到下一个报告期，现有客户在Zoom的视频会议平台上多花了多少钱。Zoom的NDER始终保持在130%以上，这意味着该公司的平均客户支出与去年同期相比增加了30%以上。高NDER意味着加强客户货币化，以及在客户保留和追加销售方面的成功。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d6fb78a690b0ec451e1f5c10d8862d\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Expenses are rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>费用在上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom has to constantly innovate and expand its product suite to keep customers happy. But this costs a lot of money. Expenses in the first nine months of the year increased in all expense groups- R&D, S&M and G&A- and, if expenses grow faster than sales, margin declines could be a result of the revenue slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom必须不断创新和扩展其产品套件，以让客户满意。但这要花很多钱。今年前九个月，所有费用组（R&D、S&M和G&A）的费用都有所增加，如果费用增长快于销售额，利润率下降可能是收入放缓的结果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a289263f7337bd53def6903184bf02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Zoom</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zoom is still overvalued...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom仍然被高估...</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst thing that can happen to a growth company like Zoom is that it has to warn of slowing growth because it immediately creates pressure on the valuation. This is what is happening here. The disappointing outlook for Q4'22 also indicates that revenue estimates for Zoom will fall once they get refreshed.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Zoom这样的成长型公司来说，可能发生的最糟糕的事情是，它必须警告增长放缓，因为这会立即给估值带来压力。这就是这里正在发生的事情。22年第4季度令人失望的前景也表明，Zoom的收入预期一旦更新，将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Despite a 39% drop in pricing this year, the video chat firm's growth prospects are overvalued. Zoom is expected to generate revenues of $4.08B this year and $4.75B next year. The revenue growth rate for next year, implied by estimates, is just 16.43%. Despite the sharp slowdown in growth, shares of Zoom still trade at a P-S ratio of 13 (based off of FY 2023 estimates).</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年定价下降了39%，但这家视频聊天公司的增长前景仍被高估。Zoom预计今年和明年的收入分别为$4.08 B和$4.75 B。预计明年的收入增长率仅为16.43%。尽管增长急剧放缓，Zoom股价的市盈率仍为13（基于2023财年的预测）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d057d1b4e1f4d8a4413f80139e6bd8b\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"654\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Zoom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom is in a critical situation: The world is moving on from the pandemic and it poses a challenge for a business that heavily benefited from digital transformation trends and remote working. New COVID-19 lockdown orders, like the ones that were just implemented in Europe, could accelerate Zoom's growth again. Longer term, the COVID-19 pandemic is poised to come to an end and there is considerable uncertainty as to how Zoom's growth will look like once the world fully returns to normal.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom正处于一个危急的境地：世界正在摆脱疫情，这给从数字化转型趋势和远程工作中受益匪浅的企业带来了挑战。新的COVID-19封锁令（例如刚刚在欧洲实施的封锁令）可能会再次加速Zoom的增长。从长远来看，COVID-19大流行即将结束，一旦世界完全恢复正常，Zoom的增长将如何存在相当大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe we have seen the end of this post-pandemic readjustment. The revenue slowdown is a real problem and Zoom has not found a recipe yet to counter this decline. New product roll-outs may counter the decline in revenue growth temporarily, but 'the new normal' will likely be a post-pandemic period of slower growth!</p><p><blockquote>我不相信我们已经看到了大流行后调整的结束。收入放缓是一个真正的问题，Zoom尚未找到应对这种下降的方法。新产品的推出可能会暂时抵消收入增长的下降，但“新常态”可能是大流行后增长放缓的时期！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471747-zoom-video-stock-q3-earnings-post-pandemic-slump\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471747-zoom-video-stock-q3-earnings-post-pandemic-slump","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190485804","content_text":"Summary\n\nZoom's revenue growth is entering a post-pandemic slump.\nGrowth in key customer groups is also slowing down.\nExpenses are rising.\nZoom is still overvalued.\n\nLeoPatrizi/E+ via Getty Images\nZoom Video Communications (ZM) is at risk of generating negative returns for shareholders as a period of pandemic gains is coming to an end. Zoom's third-quarter showed that the threat of a revenue slowdown is real and shares of Zoom are still overvalued!\nA new normal: Slower revenue growth\nZoom benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic like few companies did. The video chat company experienced an unprecedented revenue surge last year because businesses shut their doors and employees were forced to work from homes. The rise in remote working accelerated the digital transformation trend and Zoom played a key role for a lot of companies to communicate with their employees. Because of the pandemic, Zoom's revenues doubled between Q1'20 and Q2'20… and the business experienced strengthening demand for its video conferencing services in the quarters that followed. In the second-quarter, Zoom's communications platform generated more than $1.0B in revenues for the first time in the firm's history. Revenue growth in the second-quarter, year over year, was 54%.\nSource: Zoom\nSince the second-quarter, however, sales growth has been slowing down. Revenues in the third-quarter were $1.05B, showing a revenue growth rate of only 35% year over year. Zoom, spoiled with accelerating revenue growth rates during the pandemic, is now looking at a material deceleration of growth… and it already has an impact on Zoom's perception as a growth stock. Shares of Zoom cratered 14.7% yesterday, after presentation of the third-quarter earnings card. The one year price return is (52)%...\nData by YCharts\nWhat isn't helping shares of Zoom is that the outlook for the fourth-quarter indicates a continual slowdown in revenue growth. Revenues are barely going to grow quarter over quarter in Q4'22, although they will grow 19% year over year to around $1.052B. The outlook for FY 2022 strongly indicates that Zoom's revenue growth rates have peaked… which creates a justification for a material repricing of Zoom's commercial growth prospects.\nSource: Zoom\nZoom's customers- typically large companies with more than 10 employees or $100 thousand in LTM revenues- continue to use the firm's video chat and conferencing products. However, growth in the most lucrative customer group, those with the highest revenue contribution, is also slowing down. Zoom had 2,507 customers generating more than $100 thousand in annual recurring revenues in the third-quarter… which calculates to a customer group growth rate of 94% year over year. In the second-quarter, Zoom grew this customer category by 131% and growth rates have steadily declined since the first-quarter.\nSource: Zoom\nImproving customer monetization\nZoom measures its customer monetization with a figure called net dollar expansion rate/NDER. The net dollar expansion rate measures the firm's internal revenue growth on a per-customer basis and expresses how much more money existing customers spend on Zoom's video conferencing platform, from one reporting period to the next. Zoom's NDER has consistently remained above 130%, meaning the firm's average customer increased spending by more than 30% compared to the year-earlier period. A high NDER implies strengthening customer monetization, and success in customer retention and up-selling.\nSource: Zoom\nExpenses are rising\nZoom has to constantly innovate and expand its product suite to keep customers happy. But this costs a lot of money. Expenses in the first nine months of the year increased in all expense groups- R&D, S&M and G&A- and, if expenses grow faster than sales, margin declines could be a result of the revenue slowdown.\nSource: Zoom\nZoom is still overvalued...\nThe worst thing that can happen to a growth company like Zoom is that it has to warn of slowing growth because it immediately creates pressure on the valuation. This is what is happening here. The disappointing outlook for Q4'22 also indicates that revenue estimates for Zoom will fall once they get refreshed.\nDespite a 39% drop in pricing this year, the video chat firm's growth prospects are overvalued. Zoom is expected to generate revenues of $4.08B this year and $4.75B next year. The revenue growth rate for next year, implied by estimates, is just 16.43%. Despite the sharp slowdown in growth, shares of Zoom still trade at a P-S ratio of 13 (based off of FY 2023 estimates).\nSource: Author\nRisks with Zoom\nZoom is in a critical situation: The world is moving on from the pandemic and it poses a challenge for a business that heavily benefited from digital transformation trends and remote working. New COVID-19 lockdown orders, like the ones that were just implemented in Europe, could accelerate Zoom's growth again. Longer term, the COVID-19 pandemic is poised to come to an end and there is considerable uncertainty as to how Zoom's growth will look like once the world fully returns to normal.\nFinal thoughts\nI don't believe we have seen the end of this post-pandemic readjustment. The revenue slowdown is a real problem and Zoom has not found a recipe yet to counter this decline. New product roll-outs may counter the decline in revenue growth temporarily, but 'the new normal' will likely be a post-pandemic period of slower growth!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3787,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":45,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877023180"}
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