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2021-11-26
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Is Starbucks Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Take A Long-Term View<blockquote>星巴克股票是高估还是低估？从长计议</blockquote>
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Take A Long-Term View<blockquote>星巴克股票是高估还是低估？从长计议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143141710","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should contin","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Starbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future.</li> <li>SBUX's outlook for 2022 did not meet market expectations, and higher labor costs and higher coffee prices could pressure margins in the near term.</li> <li>Shares are not especially expensive, however, and SBUX should deliver solid returns in the coming years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e006d80bb64b4caeaf652728d6d7810\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>martinrlee/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>多年来，星巴克一直是一项引人注目的增长投资。该公司未来应该会继续实现稳健的增长率。</li><li>SBUX对2022年的展望没有达到市场预期，劳动力成本上升和咖啡价格上涨可能会在短期内给利润率带来压力。</li><li>然而，股价并不是特别昂贵，SBUX应该会在未来几年带来稳健的回报。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>martinrlee/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading global restaurant chain that has delivered compelling business growth for many years. In 2021, its shares have underperformed the broader market, as investors have not reacted very well to conservative guidance for 2022, while labor and supply chain headwinds are seen as potential issues as well. Nevertheless, I do believe that Starbucks Corporation will be able to deliver attractive business growth in the long run, and the current valuation doesn't look overly high, but it doesn't look especially low either.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公司(SBUX)是一家领先的全球连锁餐厅，多年来实现了引人注目的业务增长。2021年，其股价表现逊于大盘，因为投资者对2022年的保守指引反应不佳，而劳动力和供应链逆风也被视为潜在问题。尽管如此，我确实相信星巴克公司从长远来看将能够实现有吸引力的业务增长，目前的估值看起来并不算太高，但看起来也不是特别低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Starbucks Corporation is trading at $114 per share. This is about 10% lower than the 52-week high of $126, and about 20% higher than the company's $96 52-week low. Compared to the broad market, Starbucks Corporation has underperformed this year:</p><p><blockquote>如今，星巴克公司的交易价格为每股114美元。这比126美元的52周高点低约10%，比该公司96美元的52周低点高约20%。与大盘相比，星巴克公司今年的表现不佳：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78400e2d9a077129cb0b1d4635afa736\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company performed relatively in line with the broad market through July, but since then, market enthusiasm for SBUX has seemingly waned, and the company has been moving sideways or down over the last couple of months, while the broader market has rallied to new all-time highs in the same time frame. This has, of course, made SBUX more attractive on a relative basis from a valuation perspective, as its shares have not gotten more expensive in the recent past. Analysts believe that SBUX is moderately underpriced today, as the consensus price target of $122 implies a high-single-digit upside potential over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在7月份的表现与大盘相对一致，但此后，市场对SBUX的热情似乎有所减弱，该公司在过去几个月一直横盘整理或下跌，而大盘则反弹至新的水平。同一时间范围内的历史高点。当然，从估值角度来看，这使得SBUX相对更具吸引力，因为其股价最近并没有变得更贵。分析师认为，SBUX今天的价格被适度低估，因为122美元的共识目标价意味着未来12个月具有高个位数的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks Has Attractive Growth Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克拥有诱人的增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks Corporation has been seen as a higher-growth restaurant player for many years, and rightfully so. Through opening new properties around the globe, the company has grown its footprint meaningfully over the years, while comparable sales growth has been a highly important factor for the company's business growth as well.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，星巴克公司一直被视为高增长的餐厅企业，这是理所当然的。通过在全球开设新物业，该公司多年来显着扩大了其足迹，而可比销售增长也是该公司业务增长的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks' customers are not very price-sensitive, which is why price increases could be pushed through without any major negative consequences in the past. At the same time, Starbucks Corporation has, with its app and loyalty program, managed to enhance the loyalty of its customers over the years, thereby \"locking in\" many consumers into its ecosystem. Since Starbucks' products remain highly sought-after, and with Starbucks scoring well among the favorite brands of Generation Z and Millenials, it looks like Starbucks will be able to capture an attractive, and possibly growing, market share in the future, too -- at least as long as its brand remains strong and as long as the company remains well-connected to its customers base.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克的顾客对价格不是很敏感，这就是为什么过去可以在没有任何重大负面后果的情况下推动价格上涨。与此同时，星巴克公司凭借其应用程序和忠诚度计划，多年来成功提高了顾客的忠诚度，从而将许多消费者“锁定”到其生态系统中。由于星巴克的产品仍然很受欢迎，而且星巴克在Z世代和千禧一代最喜欢的品牌中得分很高，看起来星巴克未来也将能够占据有吸引力且可能不断增长的市场份额——至少只要其品牌保持强大并且只要该公司与其客户群保持良好的联系。</blockquote></p><p> Comparable store sales growth has also remained healthy during the pandemic -- during the fourth quarter of the current year, SBUX managed to grow its comps sales by 17%, and by a very strong 22% in the US. Starbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future. If the company can keep this growth rate in place, while combining it with additional store openings, there should be little concern that Starbucks' revenue growth will flat-line in the foreseeable future. Starbucks has a store count of around 33,000 today, which is significantly below the store count of McDonald's (MCD), at 39,000. Since grabbing a coffee on the go is easier than grabbing a burger, and since more people seem to have health concerns when it comes to McDonald's offerings compared to those of Starbucks, it seems possible that Starbucks' store count will eventually surpass that of McDonald's. In the long run, significant business growth opportunities do thus exist for Starbucks, not only through comps sales growth but also through the expansion of its store count.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，可比商店销售额增长也保持健康——今年第四季度，SBUX的同店销售额增长了17%，在美国增长了22%。多年来，星巴克一直是一项引人注目的增长投资。该公司未来应该会继续实现稳健的增长率。如果该公司能够保持这一增长率，同时将其与额外开店相结合，那么在可预见的未来，星巴克的收入增长将持平，这一点应该很少有人担心。星巴克目前拥有约33,000家门店，远低于麦当劳(MCD)的39,000家门店数量。由于在旅途中喝咖啡比吃汉堡更容易，而且与星巴克相比，更多的人似乎对麦当劳的产品有健康担忧，因此星巴克的门店数量最终可能会超过麦当劳。从长远来看，星巴克确实存在巨大的业务增长机会，不仅通过comps销售增长，还通过门店数量的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Management states (page 7) that these factors will be key growth drivers in the future, too:</p><p><blockquote>管理层表示（第7页），这些因素也将成为未来的关键增长动力：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>The company's financial results and long-term growth model will continue to be driven by new store openings, comparable store sales and operating margin management. These key operating metrics are important indicators for the growth of the business and the effectiveness of the company's marketing and operational strategies.</i> When it comes to Starbucks Corporation's future earnings per share growth rate, which is one of the most important metrics for shareholders, another impactful item is the change in the company's share count. Starbucks has regularly been repurchasing its common stock for many years:</p><p><blockquote><i>公司的财务业绩和长期增长模式将继续受到新店开业、可比门店销售额和营业利润率管理的推动。这些关键运营指标是业务增长以及公司营销和运营战略有效性的重要指标。</i>当谈到星巴克公司未来的每股收益增长率（这是股东最重要的指标之一）时，另一个有影响的项目是公司股票数量的变化。星巴克多年来一直定期回购其普通股：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd9d5e7a53c0bd09a0463e6ff1c9969\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company plans to do the same going forward, as Starbucks has recently committed to a new $20 billion shareholder return plan over the next three years. This will include both dividends and share repurchases, but with the dividend costing the company just $2 billion a year, or $6 billion over three years, it seems pretty clear that management will focus on share repurchases. $14 billion in buybacks in fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2024 would equate to 11% of the company's shares being bought back in that time frame (at current prices), or close to 4% a year. This alone will result in mid-single-digit earnings per share growth, even if Starbucks would not grow its company-wide profits at all. Since profit growth can be expected, however, it is not a large surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive earnings per share growth in the coming years:</p><p><blockquote>该公司计划在未来采取同样的做法，因为星巴克最近承诺在未来三年内实施一项新的200亿美元股东回报计划。这将包括股息和股票回购，但由于股息每年仅花费公司20亿美元，即三年内花费60亿美元，因此管理层显然将专注于股票回购。2022财年至2024财年140亿美元的回购将相当于该时间范围内回购的公司股票的11%（按当前价格计算），或每年接近4%。即使星巴克的全公司利润根本不会增长，仅此一项就将导致每股收益中个位数的增长。然而，由于利润增长是可以预期的，因此分析师预测未来几年每股收益将出现有吸引力的增长也就不足为奇了：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e3bee4cf6829afa81e93314e9f4703\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"130\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks is forecasted to grow its earnings per share at a mid-teens rate in 2023 and 2024, following a solid, but not spectacular 6% increase during the current fiscal year. Beyond 2024, analyst estimates for SBUX's earnings per share growth are high as well, but due to a lower number of analysts having published estimates for those years, these estimates might be less precise.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克的每股收益预计将在2023年和2024年以十几岁左右的速度增长，此前本财年增长了6%，但并不引人注目。2024年以后，分析师对SBUX每股收益增长的预测也很高，但由于这些年发布预测的分析师数量较少，这些预测可能不太准确。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Starbucks Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> At 33x this year's earnings, Starbucks is not an inexpensive stock. On the other hand, we should also consider the company's growth track record, its compelling long-term growth potential, and its shareholder-friendly capital return policy. Factoring in these items, and considering that SBUX has a history of beating estimates (EPS came in ahead of expectations in eight out of the last eight quarters), which means that current EPS estimates might be too low, which would effectively mean that the actual valuation is lower, Starbucks does not look overpriced, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克今年的市盈率为33倍，并不是一只便宜的股票。另一方面，我们还应该考虑公司的增长记录、引人注目的长期增长潜力以及对股东友好的资本回报政策。考虑到这些项目，并考虑到SBUX有超出预期的历史（过去八个季度中有八个季度每股收益超出预期），这意味着当前的每股收益预期可能太低，这实际上意味着实际估值较低，我相信星巴克看起来并没有定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc87daeca8809cd26ce7335c4ae81193\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks' current earnings multiple, based on forecasts for the current year, is relatively in-line with how SBUX was valued in the past. I thus do believe that Starbucks is neither meaningfully overvalued nor meaningfully undervalued at current prices. Instead, it looks like SBUX is relatively fairly valued today, basically comparable to how the company's shares were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>根据今年的预测，星巴克目前的市盈率与SBUX过去的估值相对一致。因此，我确实相信，以当前价格计算，星巴克的估值既没有被严重高估，也没有被严重低估。相反，SBUX目前的估值似乎相对公平，基本上与该公司股票过去的估值相当。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is SBUX Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SBUX股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Following the Q4 earnings release, shares dipped to just above $100 per share -- in retrospect, that would have been a nice time to add shares. Unfortunately, this dip did not last very long, and SBUX quickly rose above $110 again. At the current price, SBUX seems relatively fairly valued. With the pandemic hopefully coming to an end in 2022, further reopening efforts could result in considerable business growth for Starbucks. At the same time, however, higher input costs due to bad weather in Brazil, which has led to higher coffee prices, could put some pressure on SBUX's margins in the near term. Higher labor expenses -- SBUX has decided to hike pay to at least $17 per hour next year -- also could result in margin headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>第四季度财报发布后，股价跌至每股略高于100美元——回想起来，这本来是增持股票的好时机。不幸的是，这种下跌并没有持续很长时间，SBUX很快再次升至110美元上方。按照目前的价格，SBUX的估值似乎相对合理。随着疫情有望在2022年结束，进一步的重新开业努力可能会给星巴克带来可观的业务增长。但与此同时，巴西恶劣天气导致投入成本上升，导致咖啡价格上涨，可能会在短期内给SBUX的利润率带来一定压力。更高的劳动力成本——SBUX已决定明年将工资提高到每小时至少17美元——也可能导致利润率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, there are thus positives and negatives in the foreseeable future. When we also account for the fact that SBUX is neither trading at a historically expensive valuation, nor at a historically low valuation, it looks to me like Starbucks is a very solid <b><i>Hold</i></b> at slightly above $110. Shares are not inexpensive enough to make them an outright buy right here, but shares are also, by far, not expensive enough to justify selling in order to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，在可预见的未来，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。当我们还考虑到SBUX的估值既不是历史上昂贵的估值，也不是历史上较低的估值这一事实时，在我看来星巴克是一家非常稳健的公司<b><i>抓住</i></b>略高于110美元。股票还没有便宜到足以让他们在这里直接买入，但到目前为止，股票也没有贵到足以证明为了锁定收益而卖出是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> From the current level, Starbucks should generate solid, but not necessarily overly attractive total returns over the coming years. If Starbucks dips to the $100 area again, I would be inclined to enter a position in that price range.</p><p><blockquote>从目前的水平来看，星巴克在未来几年应该会产生稳健但不一定过于有吸引力的总回报。如果星巴克再次跌至100美元区域，我将倾向于在该价格范围内建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Starbucks Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Take A Long-Term View<blockquote>星巴克股票是高估还是低估？从长计议</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Starbucks Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Take A Long-Term View<blockquote>星巴克股票是高估还是低估？从长计议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Starbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future.</li> <li>SBUX's outlook for 2022 did not meet market expectations, and higher labor costs and higher coffee prices could pressure margins in the near term.</li> <li>Shares are not especially expensive, however, and SBUX should deliver solid returns in the coming years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e006d80bb64b4caeaf652728d6d7810\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>martinrlee/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>多年来，星巴克一直是一项引人注目的增长投资。该公司未来应该会继续实现稳健的增长率。</li><li>SBUX对2022年的展望没有达到市场预期，劳动力成本上升和咖啡价格上涨可能会在短期内给利润率带来压力。</li><li>然而，股价并不是特别昂贵，SBUX应该会在未来几年带来稳健的回报。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>martinrlee/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading global restaurant chain that has delivered compelling business growth for many years. In 2021, its shares have underperformed the broader market, as investors have not reacted very well to conservative guidance for 2022, while labor and supply chain headwinds are seen as potential issues as well. Nevertheless, I do believe that Starbucks Corporation will be able to deliver attractive business growth in the long run, and the current valuation doesn't look overly high, but it doesn't look especially low either.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公司(SBUX)是一家领先的全球连锁餐厅，多年来实现了引人注目的业务增长。2021年，其股价表现逊于大盘，因为投资者对2022年的保守指引反应不佳，而劳动力和供应链逆风也被视为潜在问题。尽管如此，我确实相信星巴克公司从长远来看将能够实现有吸引力的业务增长，目前的估值看起来并不算太高，但看起来也不是特别低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Starbucks Corporation is trading at $114 per share. This is about 10% lower than the 52-week high of $126, and about 20% higher than the company's $96 52-week low. Compared to the broad market, Starbucks Corporation has underperformed this year:</p><p><blockquote>如今，星巴克公司的交易价格为每股114美元。这比126美元的52周高点低约10%，比该公司96美元的52周低点高约20%。与大盘相比，星巴克公司今年的表现不佳：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78400e2d9a077129cb0b1d4635afa736\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company performed relatively in line with the broad market through July, but since then, market enthusiasm for SBUX has seemingly waned, and the company has been moving sideways or down over the last couple of months, while the broader market has rallied to new all-time highs in the same time frame. This has, of course, made SBUX more attractive on a relative basis from a valuation perspective, as its shares have not gotten more expensive in the recent past. Analysts believe that SBUX is moderately underpriced today, as the consensus price target of $122 implies a high-single-digit upside potential over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在7月份的表现与大盘相对一致，但此后，市场对SBUX的热情似乎有所减弱，该公司在过去几个月一直横盘整理或下跌，而大盘则反弹至新的水平。同一时间范围内的历史高点。当然，从估值角度来看，这使得SBUX相对更具吸引力，因为其股价最近并没有变得更贵。分析师认为，SBUX今天的价格被适度低估，因为122美元的共识目标价意味着未来12个月具有高个位数的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks Has Attractive Growth Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克拥有诱人的增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks Corporation has been seen as a higher-growth restaurant player for many years, and rightfully so. Through opening new properties around the globe, the company has grown its footprint meaningfully over the years, while comparable sales growth has been a highly important factor for the company's business growth as well.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，星巴克公司一直被视为高增长的餐厅企业，这是理所当然的。通过在全球开设新物业，该公司多年来显着扩大了其足迹，而可比销售增长也是该公司业务增长的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks' customers are not very price-sensitive, which is why price increases could be pushed through without any major negative consequences in the past. At the same time, Starbucks Corporation has, with its app and loyalty program, managed to enhance the loyalty of its customers over the years, thereby \"locking in\" many consumers into its ecosystem. Since Starbucks' products remain highly sought-after, and with Starbucks scoring well among the favorite brands of Generation Z and Millenials, it looks like Starbucks will be able to capture an attractive, and possibly growing, market share in the future, too -- at least as long as its brand remains strong and as long as the company remains well-connected to its customers base.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克的顾客对价格不是很敏感，这就是为什么过去可以在没有任何重大负面后果的情况下推动价格上涨。与此同时，星巴克公司凭借其应用程序和忠诚度计划，多年来成功提高了顾客的忠诚度，从而将许多消费者“锁定”到其生态系统中。由于星巴克的产品仍然很受欢迎，而且星巴克在Z世代和千禧一代最喜欢的品牌中得分很高，看起来星巴克未来也将能够占据有吸引力且可能不断增长的市场份额——至少只要其品牌保持强大并且只要该公司与其客户群保持良好的联系。</blockquote></p><p> Comparable store sales growth has also remained healthy during the pandemic -- during the fourth quarter of the current year, SBUX managed to grow its comps sales by 17%, and by a very strong 22% in the US. Starbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future. If the company can keep this growth rate in place, while combining it with additional store openings, there should be little concern that Starbucks' revenue growth will flat-line in the foreseeable future. Starbucks has a store count of around 33,000 today, which is significantly below the store count of McDonald's (MCD), at 39,000. Since grabbing a coffee on the go is easier than grabbing a burger, and since more people seem to have health concerns when it comes to McDonald's offerings compared to those of Starbucks, it seems possible that Starbucks' store count will eventually surpass that of McDonald's. In the long run, significant business growth opportunities do thus exist for Starbucks, not only through comps sales growth but also through the expansion of its store count.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，可比商店销售额增长也保持健康——今年第四季度，SBUX的同店销售额增长了17%，在美国增长了22%。多年来，星巴克一直是一项引人注目的增长投资。该公司未来应该会继续实现稳健的增长率。如果该公司能够保持这一增长率，同时将其与额外开店相结合，那么在可预见的未来，星巴克的收入增长将持平，这一点应该很少有人担心。星巴克目前拥有约33,000家门店，远低于麦当劳(MCD)的39,000家门店数量。由于在旅途中喝咖啡比吃汉堡更容易，而且与星巴克相比，更多的人似乎对麦当劳的产品有健康担忧，因此星巴克的门店数量最终可能会超过麦当劳。从长远来看，星巴克确实存在巨大的业务增长机会，不仅通过comps销售增长，还通过门店数量的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Management states (page 7) that these factors will be key growth drivers in the future, too:</p><p><blockquote>管理层表示（第7页），这些因素也将成为未来的关键增长动力：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>The company's financial results and long-term growth model will continue to be driven by new store openings, comparable store sales and operating margin management. These key operating metrics are important indicators for the growth of the business and the effectiveness of the company's marketing and operational strategies.</i> When it comes to Starbucks Corporation's future earnings per share growth rate, which is one of the most important metrics for shareholders, another impactful item is the change in the company's share count. Starbucks has regularly been repurchasing its common stock for many years:</p><p><blockquote><i>公司的财务业绩和长期增长模式将继续受到新店开业、可比门店销售额和营业利润率管理的推动。这些关键运营指标是业务增长以及公司营销和运营战略有效性的重要指标。</i>当谈到星巴克公司未来的每股收益增长率（这是股东最重要的指标之一）时，另一个有影响的项目是公司股票数量的变化。星巴克多年来一直定期回购其普通股：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd9d5e7a53c0bd09a0463e6ff1c9969\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company plans to do the same going forward, as Starbucks has recently committed to a new $20 billion shareholder return plan over the next three years. This will include both dividends and share repurchases, but with the dividend costing the company just $2 billion a year, or $6 billion over three years, it seems pretty clear that management will focus on share repurchases. $14 billion in buybacks in fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2024 would equate to 11% of the company's shares being bought back in that time frame (at current prices), or close to 4% a year. This alone will result in mid-single-digit earnings per share growth, even if Starbucks would not grow its company-wide profits at all. Since profit growth can be expected, however, it is not a large surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive earnings per share growth in the coming years:</p><p><blockquote>该公司计划在未来采取同样的做法，因为星巴克最近承诺在未来三年内实施一项新的200亿美元股东回报计划。这将包括股息和股票回购，但由于股息每年仅花费公司20亿美元，即三年内花费60亿美元，因此管理层显然将专注于股票回购。2022财年至2024财年140亿美元的回购将相当于该时间范围内回购的公司股票的11%（按当前价格计算），或每年接近4%。即使星巴克的全公司利润根本不会增长，仅此一项就将导致每股收益中个位数的增长。然而，由于利润增长是可以预期的，因此分析师预测未来几年每股收益将出现有吸引力的增长也就不足为奇了：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e3bee4cf6829afa81e93314e9f4703\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"130\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks is forecasted to grow its earnings per share at a mid-teens rate in 2023 and 2024, following a solid, but not spectacular 6% increase during the current fiscal year. Beyond 2024, analyst estimates for SBUX's earnings per share growth are high as well, but due to a lower number of analysts having published estimates for those years, these estimates might be less precise.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克的每股收益预计将在2023年和2024年以十几岁左右的速度增长，此前本财年增长了6%，但并不引人注目。2024年以后，分析师对SBUX每股收益增长的预测也很高，但由于这些年发布预测的分析师数量较少，这些预测可能不太准确。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Starbucks Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> At 33x this year's earnings, Starbucks is not an inexpensive stock. On the other hand, we should also consider the company's growth track record, its compelling long-term growth potential, and its shareholder-friendly capital return policy. Factoring in these items, and considering that SBUX has a history of beating estimates (EPS came in ahead of expectations in eight out of the last eight quarters), which means that current EPS estimates might be too low, which would effectively mean that the actual valuation is lower, Starbucks does not look overpriced, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克今年的市盈率为33倍，并不是一只便宜的股票。另一方面，我们还应该考虑公司的增长记录、引人注目的长期增长潜力以及对股东友好的资本回报政策。考虑到这些项目，并考虑到SBUX有超出预期的历史（过去八个季度中有八个季度每股收益超出预期），这意味着当前的每股收益预期可能太低，这实际上意味着实际估值较低，我相信星巴克看起来并没有定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc87daeca8809cd26ce7335c4ae81193\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks' current earnings multiple, based on forecasts for the current year, is relatively in-line with how SBUX was valued in the past. I thus do believe that Starbucks is neither meaningfully overvalued nor meaningfully undervalued at current prices. Instead, it looks like SBUX is relatively fairly valued today, basically comparable to how the company's shares were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>根据今年的预测，星巴克目前的市盈率与SBUX过去的估值相对一致。因此，我确实相信，以当前价格计算，星巴克的估值既没有被严重高估，也没有被严重低估。相反，SBUX目前的估值似乎相对公平，基本上与该公司股票过去的估值相当。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is SBUX Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SBUX股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Following the Q4 earnings release, shares dipped to just above $100 per share -- in retrospect, that would have been a nice time to add shares. Unfortunately, this dip did not last very long, and SBUX quickly rose above $110 again. At the current price, SBUX seems relatively fairly valued. With the pandemic hopefully coming to an end in 2022, further reopening efforts could result in considerable business growth for Starbucks. At the same time, however, higher input costs due to bad weather in Brazil, which has led to higher coffee prices, could put some pressure on SBUX's margins in the near term. Higher labor expenses -- SBUX has decided to hike pay to at least $17 per hour next year -- also could result in margin headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>第四季度财报发布后，股价跌至每股略高于100美元——回想起来，这本来是增持股票的好时机。不幸的是，这种下跌并没有持续很长时间，SBUX很快再次升至110美元上方。按照目前的价格，SBUX的估值似乎相对合理。随着疫情有望在2022年结束，进一步的重新开业努力可能会给星巴克带来可观的业务增长。但与此同时，巴西恶劣天气导致投入成本上升，导致咖啡价格上涨，可能会在短期内给SBUX的利润率带来一定压力。更高的劳动力成本——SBUX已决定明年将工资提高到每小时至少17美元——也可能导致利润率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, there are thus positives and negatives in the foreseeable future. When we also account for the fact that SBUX is neither trading at a historically expensive valuation, nor at a historically low valuation, it looks to me like Starbucks is a very solid <b><i>Hold</i></b> at slightly above $110. Shares are not inexpensive enough to make them an outright buy right here, but shares are also, by far, not expensive enough to justify selling in order to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，在可预见的未来，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。当我们还考虑到SBUX的估值既不是历史上昂贵的估值，也不是历史上较低的估值这一事实时，在我看来星巴克是一家非常稳健的公司<b><i>抓住</i></b>略高于110美元。股票还没有便宜到足以让他们在这里直接买入，但到目前为止，股票也没有贵到足以证明为了锁定收益而卖出是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> From the current level, Starbucks should generate solid, but not necessarily overly attractive total returns over the coming years. If Starbucks dips to the $100 area again, I would be inclined to enter a position in that price range.</p><p><blockquote>从目前的水平来看，星巴克在未来几年应该会产生稳健但不一定过于有吸引力的总回报。如果星巴克再次跌至100美元区域，我将倾向于在该价格范围内建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471847-starbucks-stock-overvalued-undervalued\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471847-starbucks-stock-overvalued-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143141710","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future.\nSBUX's outlook for 2022 did not meet market expectations, and higher labor costs and higher coffee prices could pressure margins in the near term.\nShares are not especially expensive, however, and SBUX should deliver solid returns in the coming years.\n\nmartinrlee/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nStarbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading global restaurant chain that has delivered compelling business growth for many years. In 2021, its shares have underperformed the broader market, as investors have not reacted very well to conservative guidance for 2022, while labor and supply chain headwinds are seen as potential issues as well. Nevertheless, I do believe that Starbucks Corporation will be able to deliver attractive business growth in the long run, and the current valuation doesn't look overly high, but it doesn't look especially low either.\nStarbucks Stock Price\nToday, Starbucks Corporation is trading at $114 per share. This is about 10% lower than the 52-week high of $126, and about 20% higher than the company's $96 52-week low. Compared to the broad market, Starbucks Corporation has underperformed this year:\nData by YCharts\nThe company performed relatively in line with the broad market through July, but since then, market enthusiasm for SBUX has seemingly waned, and the company has been moving sideways or down over the last couple of months, while the broader market has rallied to new all-time highs in the same time frame. This has, of course, made SBUX more attractive on a relative basis from a valuation perspective, as its shares have not gotten more expensive in the recent past. Analysts believe that SBUX is moderately underpriced today, as the consensus price target of $122 implies a high-single-digit upside potential over the next twelve months.\nStarbucks Has Attractive Growth Opportunities\nStarbucks Corporation has been seen as a higher-growth restaurant player for many years, and rightfully so. Through opening new properties around the globe, the company has grown its footprint meaningfully over the years, while comparable sales growth has been a highly important factor for the company's business growth as well.\nStarbucks' customers are not very price-sensitive, which is why price increases could be pushed through without any major negative consequences in the past. At the same time, Starbucks Corporation has, with its app and loyalty program, managed to enhance the loyalty of its customers over the years, thereby \"locking in\" many consumers into its ecosystem. Since Starbucks' products remain highly sought-after, and with Starbucks scoring well among the favorite brands of Generation Z and Millenials, it looks like Starbucks will be able to capture an attractive, and possibly growing, market share in the future, too -- at least as long as its brand remains strong and as long as the company remains well-connected to its customers base.\nComparable store sales growth has also remained healthy during the pandemic -- during the fourth quarter of the current year, SBUX managed to grow its comps sales by 17%, and by a very strong 22% in the US. Starbucks has been a compelling growth investment for many years. The company should continue to deliver solid growth rates in the future. If the company can keep this growth rate in place, while combining it with additional store openings, there should be little concern that Starbucks' revenue growth will flat-line in the foreseeable future. Starbucks has a store count of around 33,000 today, which is significantly below the store count of McDonald's (MCD), at 39,000. Since grabbing a coffee on the go is easier than grabbing a burger, and since more people seem to have health concerns when it comes to McDonald's offerings compared to those of Starbucks, it seems possible that Starbucks' store count will eventually surpass that of McDonald's. In the long run, significant business growth opportunities do thus exist for Starbucks, not only through comps sales growth but also through the expansion of its store count.\nManagement states (page 7) that these factors will be key growth drivers in the future, too:\n\nThe company's financial results and long-term growth model will continue to be driven by new store openings, comparable store sales and operating margin management. These key operating metrics are important indicators for the growth of the business and the effectiveness of the company's marketing and operational strategies.\n\nWhen it comes to Starbucks Corporation's future earnings per share growth rate, which is one of the most important metrics for shareholders, another impactful item is the change in the company's share count. Starbucks has regularly been repurchasing its common stock for many years:\nData by YCharts\nThe company plans to do the same going forward, as Starbucks has recently committed to a new $20 billion shareholder return plan over the next three years. This will include both dividends and share repurchases, but with the dividend costing the company just $2 billion a year, or $6 billion over three years, it seems pretty clear that management will focus on share repurchases. $14 billion in buybacks in fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2024 would equate to 11% of the company's shares being bought back in that time frame (at current prices), or close to 4% a year. This alone will result in mid-single-digit earnings per share growth, even if Starbucks would not grow its company-wide profits at all. Since profit growth can be expected, however, it is not a large surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive earnings per share growth in the coming years:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nStarbucks is forecasted to grow its earnings per share at a mid-teens rate in 2023 and 2024, following a solid, but not spectacular 6% increase during the current fiscal year. Beyond 2024, analyst estimates for SBUX's earnings per share growth are high as well, but due to a lower number of analysts having published estimates for those years, these estimates might be less precise.\nIs Starbucks Stock Overvalued?\nAt 33x this year's earnings, Starbucks is not an inexpensive stock. On the other hand, we should also consider the company's growth track record, its compelling long-term growth potential, and its shareholder-friendly capital return policy. Factoring in these items, and considering that SBUX has a history of beating estimates (EPS came in ahead of expectations in eight out of the last eight quarters), which means that current EPS estimates might be too low, which would effectively mean that the actual valuation is lower, Starbucks does not look overpriced, I believe.\nData by YCharts\nStarbucks' current earnings multiple, based on forecasts for the current year, is relatively in-line with how SBUX was valued in the past. I thus do believe that Starbucks is neither meaningfully overvalued nor meaningfully undervalued at current prices. Instead, it looks like SBUX is relatively fairly valued today, basically comparable to how the company's shares were valued in the past.\nIs SBUX Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFollowing the Q4 earnings release, shares dipped to just above $100 per share -- in retrospect, that would have been a nice time to add shares. Unfortunately, this dip did not last very long, and SBUX quickly rose above $110 again. At the current price, SBUX seems relatively fairly valued. With the pandemic hopefully coming to an end in 2022, further reopening efforts could result in considerable business growth for Starbucks. At the same time, however, higher input costs due to bad weather in Brazil, which has led to higher coffee prices, could put some pressure on SBUX's margins in the near term. Higher labor expenses -- SBUX has decided to hike pay to at least $17 per hour next year -- also could result in margin headwinds.\nOverall, there are thus positives and negatives in the foreseeable future. When we also account for the fact that SBUX is neither trading at a historically expensive valuation, nor at a historically low valuation, it looks to me like Starbucks is a very solid Hold at slightly above $110. Shares are not inexpensive enough to make them an outright buy right here, but shares are also, by far, not expensive enough to justify selling in order to lock in gains.\nFrom the current level, Starbucks should generate solid, but not necessarily overly attractive total returns over the coming years. If Starbucks dips to the $100 area again, I would be inclined to enter a position in that price range.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1169,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877105617"}
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