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2021-11-26
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The S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>未来一年标普500可以上涨7%。盈利必须继续飙升。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":877342419,"tweetId":"877342419","gmtCreate":1637892118515,"gmtModify":1637892118515,"author":{"id":3581833173571708,"idStr":"3581833173571708","authorId":3581833173571708,"authorIdStr":"3581833173571708","name":"jack_paing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb267d3238b5dcb9bfb6ceb846015c7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","text":"like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877342419","repostId":1126230539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126230539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637891394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126230539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>未来一年标普500可以上涨7%。盈利必须继续飙升。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126230539","media":"Barrons","summary":"Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behi","content":"<p>Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)策略师表示，标普500指数在未来一年左右可能上涨7%。这一预测背后的主要因素是盈利再次高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师公布了2022年底大盘基准目标为5,000点。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨约7%——该公司预计2022年标普500公司的每股总收益将达到233美元，这一观点得到了支持。FactSet追踪的分析师的基线观点是，这一数字将为220美元。</blockquote></p><p> That outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种优异的表现发生，将标志着最近使投资者受益的趋势的延续。第三季度，标普500每股收益比分析师预期高出约10%。虽然这低于前几个季度20%以上的增幅，但这表明华尔街继续低估公司创造利润的能力。分析师以做出保守估计而闻名，尤其是在需求激增的情况下，就像封锁后时代一样。</blockquote></p><p> One element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞看涨利润预测背后的一个因素是经济仍在以相对较快的速度增长。FactSet的数据显示，经济学家预计2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5%以上。虽然这将慢于今年的增长，但仍好于疫情爆发前近年来低于3%的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Jeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.</p><p><blockquote>Jeffreries的数据显示，从历史上看，5%的GDP增长与中个位数到两位数的盈利增长相关。数学证明：标普500 2022年每股收益总额需要增长12%才能达到杰富瑞预测的233美元。</blockquote></p><p> The aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年每股收益总额为233美元，也不一定会让分析师界感到震惊。这将比分析师的总体预期高出约6%，根据瑞士信贷2016年的数据，公司的盈利往往超出预期约6%。</blockquote></p><p> That is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.</p><p><blockquote>这对股市来说都是好事，但杰富瑞在标普500的看涨期权面临的一个风险是估值似乎有点高。该公司的预测意味着标普500 2022年的总市盈率（该指数中所有股票相对于每股利润总额的价值）应为21.5倍。这就是目前的数字，但许多人认为估值会下降，因为债券收益率很容易走高。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率为1.68%，按实际价值计算仍为负值。远低于长期通胀预期，这在历史上是罕见的。鉴于债券收益率上升的风险，摩根士丹利策略师预测未来市盈率为18倍。除非盈利大幅增长，否则标普500很难实现7%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.</p><p><blockquote>但杰富瑞反驳了这一论点，至少在短期内是这样。Jefferies全球股票策略师肖恩·达比写道：“只要美国盈亏平衡通胀曲线保持倒挂（负实际收益率），股市就有一些扩大倍数空间。”这样的观点是，如果美国国债的实际收益率为负值，投资者仍有充分的理由将资金投入股市。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.</p><p><blockquote>最终，该指数可以从这里继续上涨。只是稳健的收益高度依赖于强劲的盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections & Amplifications:</b> Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.</p><p><blockquote><b>校正和放大：</b>标普500公司2022年总收益增长12%，将使该指数的总每股收益达到233美元。本文的早期版本错误地表示，12%的增长将使2021年的利润达到208美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>未来一年标普500可以上涨7%。盈利必须继续飙升。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>未来一年标普500可以上涨7%。盈利必须继续飙升。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)策略师表示，标普500指数在未来一年左右可能上涨7%。这一预测背后的主要因素是盈利再次高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师公布了2022年底大盘基准目标为5,000点。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨约7%——该公司预计2022年标普500公司的每股总收益将达到233美元，这一观点得到了支持。FactSet追踪的分析师的基线观点是，这一数字将为220美元。</blockquote></p><p> That outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种优异的表现发生，将标志着最近使投资者受益的趋势的延续。第三季度，标普500每股收益比分析师预期高出约10%。虽然这低于前几个季度20%以上的增幅，但这表明华尔街继续低估公司创造利润的能力。分析师以做出保守估计而闻名，尤其是在需求激增的情况下，就像封锁后时代一样。</blockquote></p><p> One element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞看涨利润预测背后的一个因素是经济仍在以相对较快的速度增长。FactSet的数据显示，经济学家预计2022年美国国内生产总值将增长5%以上。虽然这将慢于今年的增长，但仍好于疫情爆发前近年来低于3%的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Jeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.</p><p><blockquote>Jeffreries的数据显示，从历史上看，5%的GDP增长与中个位数到两位数的盈利增长相关。数学证明：标普500 2022年每股收益总额需要增长12%才能达到杰富瑞预测的233美元。</blockquote></p><p> The aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年每股收益总额为233美元，也不一定会让分析师界感到震惊。这将比分析师的总体预期高出约6%，根据瑞士信贷2016年的数据，公司的盈利往往超出预期约6%。</blockquote></p><p> That is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.</p><p><blockquote>这对股市来说都是好事，但杰富瑞在标普500的看涨期权面临的一个风险是估值似乎有点高。该公司的预测意味着标普500 2022年的总市盈率（该指数中所有股票相对于每股利润总额的价值）应为21.5倍。这就是目前的数字，但许多人认为估值会下降，因为债券收益率很容易走高。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率为1.68%，按实际价值计算仍为负值。远低于长期通胀预期，这在历史上是罕见的。鉴于债券收益率上升的风险，摩根士丹利策略师预测未来市盈率为18倍。除非盈利大幅增长，否则标普500很难实现7%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.</p><p><blockquote>但杰富瑞反驳了这一论点，至少在短期内是这样。Jefferies全球股票策略师肖恩·达比写道：“只要美国盈亏平衡通胀曲线保持倒挂（负实际收益率），股市就有一些扩大倍数空间。”这样的观点是，如果美国国债的实际收益率为负值，投资者仍有充分的理由将资金投入股市。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.</p><p><blockquote>最终，该指数可以从这里继续上涨。只是稳健的收益高度依赖于强劲的盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections & Amplifications:</b> Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.</p><p><blockquote><b>校正和放大：</b>标普500公司2022年总收益增长12%，将使该指数的总每股收益达到233美元。本文的早期版本错误地表示，12%的增长将使2021年的利润达到208美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-500-outlook-gains-forecast-51637706794?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-500-outlook-gains-forecast-51637706794?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126230539","content_text":"Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.\nJefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.\nThat outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.\nOne element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.\nJeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.\nThe aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.\nThat is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.\nBut Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.\nUltimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.\nCorrections & Amplifications: Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877342419"}
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