Suba
2021-11-12
See how next week
Are Rivian Automotive shares cheap or expensive?<blockquote>Rivian汽车公司的股票便宜还是贵？</blockquote>
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To get started trading, all you nee","content":"<p><b>We have now listed Rivian Automotive share CFDs on ThinkMarkets. To get started trading, all you need to do is create an account and select Rivian in your ThinkTrader watchlist.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们现在已经在ThinkMarkets上列出了Rivian汽车股票差价合约。要开始交易，您需要做的就是创建一个帐户并在ThinkTrader观察列表中选择Rivian。</b></blockquote></p><p> What’s best about Rivian share CFDs is that they let you take advantage of both rising and falling prices. That means with ThinkMarkets, if you think the price of Rivian Automotive is going to rise, you can go long its CFD, and if you think the price is going to fall, you can go short its CFD. Rivian Share CFDs are available on ThinkMarkets under the stock ticker RIVN.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian股票差价合约最大的好处是，它们可以让你利用价格上涨和下跌的机会。这意味着通过ThinkMarkets，如果您认为Rivian汽车的价格将会上涨，您可以做多其差价合约，如果您认为价格将会下跌，您可以做空其差价合约。ThinkMarkets提供Rivian股票差价合约，股票代码为RIVN。</blockquote></p><p> So let’s take a closer look at Rivian Automotive and what’s behind all the hype?</p><p><blockquote>那么让我们仔细看看Rivian汽车公司以及所有炒作背后的原因是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Highlights</p><p><blockquote>亮点</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian History</li> <li>IPO</li> <li>Opportunity</li> <li>Risks</li> <li>Conclusions</li> <li>Rating & Fair Value Target</li> </ul> HistoryStarted in 2012, Rivian is an American electric vehicle (EV) automaker and automotive technology company created by CEO Robert “RJ” Scaringe. Former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, called Rivian’s founder, RJ Scaringe, “one of the greatest entrepreneurs”.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian历史</li><li>IPO</li><li>机会</li><li>风险</li><li>结论</li><li>评级和公允价值目标</li></ul>历史Rivian成立于2012年，是一家美国电动汽车(EV)汽车制造商和汽车技术公司，由首席执行官Robert“RJ”Scaringe创建。亚马逊前首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯称Rivian创始人RJ·斯卡林格是“最伟大的企业家之一”。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian originally started life as an EV sports car manufacturer (prior to officially rebranding in 2012), but changed tack because management realised they could not add significant value to what was already on offer in that space (i.e., Tesla). Instead, they decided to focus on a glaring hole in the EV market, light trucks and sports utility vehicles (SUVs).</p><p><blockquote>Rivian最初是一家电动跑车制造商（在2012年正式更名之前），但改变了策略，因为管理层意识到他们无法为该领域已有的产品（即特斯拉）增加显着价值。相反，他们决定专注于电动汽车市场的一个明显漏洞，轻型卡车和运动型多用途车（SUV）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a14bbed113802408fbdf076ff4470b\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>The Rivian R1S sports utility vehicle</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian R1S运动型多功能车</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Today, Rivian has two flagship consumer focussed EVs for sale, the R1T (light truck) and the R1S (SUV). It also has developed what it calls the Electric Delivery Van (\"EDV\"), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally.IPORivian's initial public offering (IPO) consisted of 153 million shares of Class A common stock at a public offering price of $78 per share, to raise US$11.9 billion. However there are a considerable number of shares already issued in the company, held by early and cornerstone investors. Two cornerstone investors are of particular note, Amazon which owns approximately 22%, and Ford Motor Co. which owns approximately 12% of Rivian shares.</p><p><blockquote>如今，Rivian有两款面向消费者的旗舰电动汽车出售：R1T（轻型卡车）和R1S（SUV）。它还开发了评级电动送货车（“EDV”），由Rivian与亚马逊合作设计和制造，亚马逊已在全球订购了10万辆汽车。IPORivian的首次公开募股（IPO）包括1.53亿股A类普通股，公开发行价为每股78美元，筹集119亿美元。然而，该公司已发行大量股票，由早期投资者和基石投资者持有。两个基石投资者特别值得注意，亚马逊拥有约22%的股份，福特汽车公司拥有约12%的Rivian股份。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce0db4623415a5087830868ca8b1392\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) price chart</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian汽车(RIVN)价格图表</b></i></blockquote></p><p> OpportunityRivian aims to address the large, fast-growing, and high-margin EV market. More specifically, it is targeting the niche light truck and SUVs segment which is currently significantly underserviced by existing EV manufacturers, particularly by major rival Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>机遇Rivian旨在解决庞大、快速增长且高利润的电动汽车市场。更具体地说，它的目标是利基轻型卡车和SUV细分市场，目前现有电动汽车制造商（尤其是主要竞争对手特斯拉）对该细分市场的服务严重不足。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to selling vehicles, strategy also includes value-added services such as digitally enabled financing, telematics-based insurance, proactive vehicle service (maintenance and repair), flexible membership and software services, comprehensive charging solutions, and a vehicle resale program. In addition to these services, the company will also offer consumers value adding accessories and applications aimed at improving the usage of Rivian's EVs.</p><p><blockquote>除了销售车辆，该战略还包括增值服务，如数字化融资、基于远程信息处理的保险、主动车辆服务（维护和维修）、灵活的会员和软件服务、全面的充电解决方案和车辆转售计划。除了这些服务外，该公司还将为消费者提供增值配件和应用程序，旨在提高Rivian电动汽车的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to consumer vehicles, also targeting commercial market via Rivian Commercial Vehicle (\"RCV\") platform. The first vehicle to be produced is the EDV, designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally. This is the largest order of EVs ever for any manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>除消费汽车外，还通过Rivian商用车（“RCV”）平台瞄准商用市场。生产的第一辆汽车是EDV，由Rivian与亚马逊合作设计和制造，亚马逊已在全球订购了10万辆汽车。这是任何制造商有史以来最大的电动汽车订单。</blockquote></p><p> The company believes that with the cost of EV ownership no longer a significant barrier to purchase, the EV revolution has begun. They note that approximately 90 million light vehicles are sold globally each year, and a significant proportion of these will inevitably transition to EVs. Further, trucks and SUVs comprise over 70% of new vehicle sales in the United States, are the fastest growing segment, and account for most of the profits generated by incumbent automobile manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司认为，随着电动汽车的拥有成本不再是购买的重大障碍，电动汽车革命已经开始。他们指出，全球每年销售约9000万辆轻型汽车，其中很大一部分将不可避免地过渡到电动汽车。此外，卡车和SUV占美国新车销量的70%以上，是增长最快的细分市场，并占现有汽车制造商产生的大部分利润。</blockquote></p><p> Globally, Rivian's total addressable market is around US$8.3 billion, with just under US$1 billion in the US. Of the US market, they believe the market for consumer EVs is approximately $650 million, and approximately $200 million for commercial EVs.FinancialsFor the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2020, we incurred net losses of $426 million and $1.0 billion, respectively. This is because the company has invested heavily in product development, and preparations for the initial launch of their vehicles which occurred in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在全球范围内，Rivian的潜在市场总额约为83亿美元，其中美国的潜在市场略低于10亿美元。在美国市场中，他们认为消费电动汽车市场约为6.5亿美元，商用电动汽车市场约为2亿美元。财务截至2019年12月31日和2020年12月31日，我们分别产生了4.26亿美元和10亿美元的净亏损。这是因为该公司在产品开发以及2021年9月首次推出车辆的准备工作方面投入了大量资金。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A key positive of the financials for Rivian is that the company has minimal debt. Instead, it has funded the business by ways of a unsecured senior convertible promissory notes (a kind of a hybrid debt-equity instrument that starts as a loan but converts on maturity to stock at a predetermined stock price), and a number of historical preferred stock issues.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian财务状况的一个关键积极因素是该公司的债务很少。相反，它通过无担保高级可转换本票（一种混合债务-股权工具，开始时是贷款，但到期时以预定股价转换为股票）和一些历史债券的方式为业务提供资金。优先股发行。</blockquote></p><p> Funding is the key for Rivian as it anticipates it will spend at least $8 billion through the end of 2023 to support their commercialisation and growth objectives. The company is currently burning around US$300 million in cash per quarter, with approximately US$3.5 billion cash in the bank (proceeds of the IPO included). This gives it a growth runway of approximately 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>资金是Rivian的关键，因为它预计到2023年底将花费至少80亿美元来支持其商业化和增长目标。该公司目前每季度消耗约3亿美元现金，银行现金约为35亿美元（包括IPO收益）。这给了它大约3年的增长跑道。</blockquote></p><p> The company says that cash flows from the sales of its EVs are unlikely to cover its ongoing expenditure for the foreseeable future. As a result, the company expects to make losses for an extended period of time as it continues to invest in its growth. Given the growth runway, and expected expenditures, this implies that the company will likely have to raise capital again in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，在可预见的未来，电动汽车销售产生的现金流不太可能支付其持续支出。因此，随着该公司继续投资于其增长，预计将在很长一段时间内出现亏损。考虑到增长跑道和预期支出，这意味着该公司可能不得不在中期内再次筹集资金。</blockquote></p><p> As of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 48,390 R1T and R1S pre-orders in the United States and Canada from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $1,000. Current production capacity at their existing plant is 150,000 vehicles p.a.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年9月30日，该公司在美国和加拿大约有48,390份R1T和R1S预购订单，客户每人支付了1,000美元的可取消和可全额退还的定金。他们现有工厂目前的生产能力为每年150,000辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts believe the company could make revenues of between US$20 billion and US$25 billion by 2025 if it achieves its aim of 350,000 vehicles produced annually. It its margins are similar to Tesla, this could mean approximately US$1.4 billion to US$1.7 billion in net profits. Again to compare, this is roughly what Tesla currently earns in profit per quarter, and Tesla's market capitalisation us just over US$1 trillion.RisksRivian has a limited operating history and has not generated material revenue from sales of its vehicles or other products and services to date. The company's medium term outlook depends largely on its ability to develop, manufacture, market and sell their EVs.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，如果该公司实现年产35万辆汽车的目标，到2025年该公司的收入可能在200亿至250亿美元之间。如果其利润率与特斯拉相似，这可能意味着净利润约为14亿至17亿美元。再次比较一下，这大致相当于特斯拉目前每季度的利润，而特斯拉的市值刚刚超过1万亿美元。风险Rivian的运营历史有限，尚未通过销售其车辆或其他产品和服务产生实质性收入迄今为止。该公司的中期前景很大程度上取决于其开发、制造、营销和销售电动汽车的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Initial deliveries for the R1T and R1S were and are, respectively, delayed, and the ramp up in production of these vehicles is taking longer than originally expected. This is due largely to the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly on labour availability and supply chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>R1T和R1S的初始交付分别被推迟，并且这些车辆的产量增加所需的时间比最初预期的要长。这主要是由于COVID-19大流行的持续影响，特别是对劳动力供应和供应链中断的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Another key issue facing Rivian is the difficulty the company has in accurately estimating the likely demand for their vehicles, and therefore in placing long term orders with suppliers, or to negotiate scaled discounts. This means that the company is likely to face significantly higher costs than an established manufacturer like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian面临的另一个关键问题是该公司难以准确估计对其车辆的可能需求，从而难以向供应商下长期订单或协商大规模折扣。这意味着该公司可能面临比特斯拉等老牌制造商高得多的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the company is starting with just two consumer models and one commercial model. This will likely only sustain respective markets' interests for so long. Eventually they will have to upgrade or redesign existing models, and or launch new ones in other segments. In those other segments, for example passenger and sports, they are going to face significantly tougher competition from more advanced offerings by established EV and conventional vehicle manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司一开始只有两种消费模式和一种商业模式。这可能只会在很长一段时间内维持各自市场的利益。最终，他们将不得不升级或重新设计现有车型，或者在其他细分市场推出新车型。在其他细分市场，例如乘用车和运动车，他们将面临来自老牌电动汽车和传统汽车制造商更先进产品的更加激烈的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian, by their own public admission (in their prospectus no less!) has limited experience in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs. This means that there is a significant execution risk in terms of them delivering on their short term and longer term goals.ConclusionsAt $122.99 closing price on Thursday, Rivian is capitalised at approximately US$100 billion. This is greater than U.S. majors Ford and General Motors, European prestige brand BMW, and twice the size of Japanese manufacturers Honda and Nissan. It's 71% the size of the world's largest car manufacturer by revenue, Volkswagen.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian自己公开承认（在他们的招股说明书中也是如此！）在设计、测试、制造、营销和销售电动汽车方面的经验有限。这意味着他们在实现短期和长期目标方面存在巨大的执行风险。结论Rivian周四收盘价为122.99美元，市值约为1000亿美元。这比美国巨头福特和通用汽车、欧洲知名品牌宝马还要大，也是日本制造商本田和日产的两倍。按收入计算，它的规模是全球最大汽车制造商大众汽车的71%。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst we let those comparisons settle in your mind, let us remind you that Rivian's only revenue so far is the $1,000 deposits it has taken on its presales, and has not yet delivered a single vehicle to customers.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们让这些比较留在您的脑海中，但让我们提醒您，Rivian迄今为止唯一的收入是它在预售中收取的1,000美元定金，并且尚未向客户交付一辆车。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is often compared to Tesla, both in terms of a template for what is possible in the disruptive EV space, but also as what is possible in terms of future profitability and potential market capitalisation. We would suggest that the fact both companies produce EVs is where the comparisons should end. Tesla was producing and selling vehicles prior to its IPO, and had very little competition when it started because it was a pioneer in the space. Rivian on the other hand, is entering a highly competitive EV landscape that now consists of all of the major, established producers.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian经常被比作特斯拉，不仅是颠覆性电动汽车领域的模板，也是未来盈利能力和潜在市值的模板。我们认为，两家公司都生产电动汽车这一事实应该结束比较。特斯拉在首次公开募股之前就在生产和销售汽车，刚开始时几乎没有竞争，因为它是该领域的先驱。另一方面，Rivian正在进入一个竞争激烈的电动汽车领域，该领域现在由所有主要的老牌生产商组成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9132ca6746200892bfe86ebef29927fd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>The Rivian R1T light truck</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian R1T轻型卡车</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Granted, Rivian is targeting the niche of light trucks and SUVs, which is largely underserviced at the moment. However, this is unlikely to remain so for long as other manufacturers, particularly Tesla, increasingly enter this segment (Tesla is currently selling a 'soft SUV', the Model X, but has plans to release a more adventure-focussed SUV and the Cybertruck in 2023).</p><p><blockquote>诚然，Rivian的目标是轻型卡车和SUV这一利基市场，而目前这一市场的服务基本上不足。然而，随着其他制造商，尤其是特斯拉，越来越多地进入这一细分市场，这种情况不太可能持续太久（特斯拉目前正在销售一款“软SUV”Model X，但计划发布一款更注重冒险的SUV和2023年的Cybertruck）。</blockquote></p><p> The company admits itself that it has \"limited experience, in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs\". It is an unproven entity that is trading at an extremely high valuation compared to its established peers. For this reason, we belive the execution risk is extreme<i>at the current valuation</i>(we couldn’t think of a word more extreme than 'extreme'…perhaps 'extremely extreme!?').</p><p><blockquote>该公司承认自己“在设计、测试、制造、营销和销售电动汽车方面的经验有限”。这是一个未经证实的实体，与成熟的同行相比，其交易估值极高。因此，我们认为执行风险极大<i>按当前估值</i>（我们想不出比‘极端’更极端的词了……也许是‘极端极端！？’）.</blockquote></p><p> We define 'execution risk' as the possibility the company does not deliver on its production and sales targets, potential negative impacts from the developing competitive landscape, and favourable consumer adoption of its products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将“执行风险”定义为公司无法实现其生产和销售目标的可能性、不断发展的竞争格局的潜在负面影响以及消费者对其产品的有利采用。</blockquote></p><p> However, on the upside, in the short term, the company's valuation likely depends more on what investors are prepared to pay for its shares rather than on its future profitability. Granted, ordinarily we would expect that these two concepts eventually merge. But in the current market environment, there are a great deal of investors who are only too keen to throw their investment dollars at companies like Rivian that are consistent with their beliefs and tastes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从好的方面来看，短期内该公司的估值可能更多地取决于投资者准备为其股票支付的费用，而不是其未来的盈利能力。当然，通常我们会期望这两个概念最终会融合。但在当前的市场环境下，有大量投资者热衷于将投资资金投入到像Rivian这样符合他们信仰和品味的公司。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, we believe that Rivian shares at their current price are grossly overvalued. However, we note that the EV industry is growing rapidly, and many investors can see and relate to the opportunity that this presents. Perhaps 'extremely extreme' risks are less important than the 'story', and possibly also the fear of missing out on 'the next Tesla'. For this reason, we expect Rivian shares will probably remain overvalued for some time, and therefore cannot rule out further gains in the short term.Rating & Fair Value TargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please note<i>a great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions</i>, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentially<i>everything going right</i>for Rivian out to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我们认为Rivian股票目前的价格被严重高估。然而，我们注意到电动汽车行业正在快速增长，许多投资者可以看到并感受到这带来的机会。也许“极其极端”的风险没有“故事”重要，也可能是对错过“下一个特斯拉”的恐惧。因此，我们预计Rivian股价可能会在一段时间内保持高估，因此不能排除短期内进一步上涨。评级和公允价值目标基于我们对该公司的盈利和盈利增长预测，请注意<i>为了形成这样的意见，我们不可避免地要进行大量的猜测</i>，我们可以接受高达620亿美元的估值。这将是我们的最高端<i>一切顺利</i>Rivian到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> We noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们在上面指出，执行风险很高，公允价值可能接近400亿美元。这些估值相当于每股50至76美元的股价。因此，我们别无选择，只能给予Rivian卖出、高风险评级。本网站包含的任何观点、新闻、研究、分析、价格或其他信息均作为一般市场评论提供，并不构成投资建议。ThinkMarkets对任何损失或损害不承担任何责任，包括但不限于因使用或依赖此类信息而直接或间接导致的任何利润损失。</blockquote></p><p> Rating & Fair Value </p><p><blockquote>评级及公允价值</blockquote></p><p> TargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please note<i>a great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions</i>, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentially<i>everything going right</i>for Rivian out to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>目标基于我们对公司的盈利和盈利增长预测，请注意<i>为了形成这样的意见，我们不可避免地要进行大量的猜测</i>，我们可以接受高达620亿美元的估值。这将是我们的最高端<i>一切顺利</i>Rivian到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> We noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们在上面指出，执行风险很高，公允价值可能接近400亿美元。这些估值相当于每股50至76美元的股价。因此，我们别无选择，只能给予Rivian卖出、高风险评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1631281755125","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Rivian Automotive shares cheap or expensive?<blockquote>Rivian汽车公司的股票便宜还是贵？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre Rivian Automotive shares cheap or expensive?<blockquote>Rivian汽车公司的股票便宜还是贵？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The fiscal times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-12 13:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>We have now listed Rivian Automotive share CFDs on ThinkMarkets. To get started trading, all you need to do is create an account and select Rivian in your ThinkTrader watchlist.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们现在已经在ThinkMarkets上列出了Rivian汽车股票差价合约。要开始交易，您需要做的就是创建一个帐户并在ThinkTrader观察列表中选择Rivian。</b></blockquote></p><p> What’s best about Rivian share CFDs is that they let you take advantage of both rising and falling prices. That means with ThinkMarkets, if you think the price of Rivian Automotive is going to rise, you can go long its CFD, and if you think the price is going to fall, you can go short its CFD. Rivian Share CFDs are available on ThinkMarkets under the stock ticker RIVN.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian股票差价合约最大的好处是，它们可以让你利用价格上涨和下跌的机会。这意味着通过ThinkMarkets，如果您认为Rivian汽车的价格将会上涨，您可以做多其差价合约，如果您认为价格将会下跌，您可以做空其差价合约。ThinkMarkets提供Rivian股票差价合约，股票代码为RIVN。</blockquote></p><p> So let’s take a closer look at Rivian Automotive and what’s behind all the hype?</p><p><blockquote>那么让我们仔细看看Rivian汽车公司以及所有炒作背后的原因是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Highlights</p><p><blockquote>亮点</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian History</li> <li>IPO</li> <li>Opportunity</li> <li>Risks</li> <li>Conclusions</li> <li>Rating & Fair Value Target</li> </ul> HistoryStarted in 2012, Rivian is an American electric vehicle (EV) automaker and automotive technology company created by CEO Robert “RJ” Scaringe. Former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, called Rivian’s founder, RJ Scaringe, “one of the greatest entrepreneurs”.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian历史</li><li>IPO</li><li>机会</li><li>风险</li><li>结论</li><li>评级和公允价值目标</li></ul>历史Rivian成立于2012年，是一家美国电动汽车(EV)汽车制造商和汽车技术公司，由首席执行官Robert“RJ”Scaringe创建。亚马逊前首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯称Rivian创始人RJ·斯卡林格是“最伟大的企业家之一”。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian originally started life as an EV sports car manufacturer (prior to officially rebranding in 2012), but changed tack because management realised they could not add significant value to what was already on offer in that space (i.e., Tesla). Instead, they decided to focus on a glaring hole in the EV market, light trucks and sports utility vehicles (SUVs).</p><p><blockquote>Rivian最初是一家电动跑车制造商（在2012年正式更名之前），但改变了策略，因为管理层意识到他们无法为该领域已有的产品（即特斯拉）增加显着价值。相反，他们决定专注于电动汽车市场的一个明显漏洞，轻型卡车和运动型多用途车（SUV）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a14bbed113802408fbdf076ff4470b\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>The Rivian R1S sports utility vehicle</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian R1S运动型多功能车</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Today, Rivian has two flagship consumer focussed EVs for sale, the R1T (light truck) and the R1S (SUV). It also has developed what it calls the Electric Delivery Van (\"EDV\"), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally.IPORivian's initial public offering (IPO) consisted of 153 million shares of Class A common stock at a public offering price of $78 per share, to raise US$11.9 billion. However there are a considerable number of shares already issued in the company, held by early and cornerstone investors. Two cornerstone investors are of particular note, Amazon which owns approximately 22%, and Ford Motor Co. which owns approximately 12% of Rivian shares.</p><p><blockquote>如今，Rivian有两款面向消费者的旗舰电动汽车出售：R1T（轻型卡车）和R1S（SUV）。它还开发了评级电动送货车（“EDV”），由Rivian与亚马逊合作设计和制造，亚马逊已在全球订购了10万辆汽车。IPORivian的首次公开募股（IPO）包括1.53亿股A类普通股，公开发行价为每股78美元，筹集119亿美元。然而，该公司已发行大量股票，由早期投资者和基石投资者持有。两个基石投资者特别值得注意，亚马逊拥有约22%的股份，福特汽车公司拥有约12%的Rivian股份。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce0db4623415a5087830868ca8b1392\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) price chart</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian汽车(RIVN)价格图表</b></i></blockquote></p><p> OpportunityRivian aims to address the large, fast-growing, and high-margin EV market. More specifically, it is targeting the niche light truck and SUVs segment which is currently significantly underserviced by existing EV manufacturers, particularly by major rival Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>机遇Rivian旨在解决庞大、快速增长且高利润的电动汽车市场。更具体地说，它的目标是利基轻型卡车和SUV细分市场，目前现有电动汽车制造商（尤其是主要竞争对手特斯拉）对该细分市场的服务严重不足。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to selling vehicles, strategy also includes value-added services such as digitally enabled financing, telematics-based insurance, proactive vehicle service (maintenance and repair), flexible membership and software services, comprehensive charging solutions, and a vehicle resale program. In addition to these services, the company will also offer consumers value adding accessories and applications aimed at improving the usage of Rivian's EVs.</p><p><blockquote>除了销售车辆，该战略还包括增值服务，如数字化融资、基于远程信息处理的保险、主动车辆服务（维护和维修）、灵活的会员和软件服务、全面的充电解决方案和车辆转售计划。除了这些服务外，该公司还将为消费者提供增值配件和应用程序，旨在提高Rivian电动汽车的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to consumer vehicles, also targeting commercial market via Rivian Commercial Vehicle (\"RCV\") platform. The first vehicle to be produced is the EDV, designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally. This is the largest order of EVs ever for any manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>除消费汽车外，还通过Rivian商用车（“RCV”）平台瞄准商用市场。生产的第一辆汽车是EDV，由Rivian与亚马逊合作设计和制造，亚马逊已在全球订购了10万辆汽车。这是任何制造商有史以来最大的电动汽车订单。</blockquote></p><p> The company believes that with the cost of EV ownership no longer a significant barrier to purchase, the EV revolution has begun. They note that approximately 90 million light vehicles are sold globally each year, and a significant proportion of these will inevitably transition to EVs. Further, trucks and SUVs comprise over 70% of new vehicle sales in the United States, are the fastest growing segment, and account for most of the profits generated by incumbent automobile manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司认为，随着电动汽车的拥有成本不再是购买的重大障碍，电动汽车革命已经开始。他们指出，全球每年销售约9000万辆轻型汽车，其中很大一部分将不可避免地过渡到电动汽车。此外，卡车和SUV占美国新车销量的70%以上，是增长最快的细分市场，并占现有汽车制造商产生的大部分利润。</blockquote></p><p> Globally, Rivian's total addressable market is around US$8.3 billion, with just under US$1 billion in the US. Of the US market, they believe the market for consumer EVs is approximately $650 million, and approximately $200 million for commercial EVs.FinancialsFor the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2020, we incurred net losses of $426 million and $1.0 billion, respectively. This is because the company has invested heavily in product development, and preparations for the initial launch of their vehicles which occurred in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在全球范围内，Rivian的潜在市场总额约为83亿美元，其中美国的潜在市场略低于10亿美元。在美国市场中，他们认为消费电动汽车市场约为6.5亿美元，商用电动汽车市场约为2亿美元。财务截至2019年12月31日和2020年12月31日，我们分别产生了4.26亿美元和10亿美元的净亏损。这是因为该公司在产品开发以及2021年9月首次推出车辆的准备工作方面投入了大量资金。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A key positive of the financials for Rivian is that the company has minimal debt. Instead, it has funded the business by ways of a unsecured senior convertible promissory notes (a kind of a hybrid debt-equity instrument that starts as a loan but converts on maturity to stock at a predetermined stock price), and a number of historical preferred stock issues.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian财务状况的一个关键积极因素是该公司的债务很少。相反，它通过无担保高级可转换本票（一种混合债务-股权工具，开始时是贷款，但到期时以预定股价转换为股票）和一些历史债券的方式为业务提供资金。优先股发行。</blockquote></p><p> Funding is the key for Rivian as it anticipates it will spend at least $8 billion through the end of 2023 to support their commercialisation and growth objectives. The company is currently burning around US$300 million in cash per quarter, with approximately US$3.5 billion cash in the bank (proceeds of the IPO included). This gives it a growth runway of approximately 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>资金是Rivian的关键，因为它预计到2023年底将花费至少80亿美元来支持其商业化和增长目标。该公司目前每季度消耗约3亿美元现金，银行现金约为35亿美元（包括IPO收益）。这给了它大约3年的增长跑道。</blockquote></p><p> The company says that cash flows from the sales of its EVs are unlikely to cover its ongoing expenditure for the foreseeable future. As a result, the company expects to make losses for an extended period of time as it continues to invest in its growth. Given the growth runway, and expected expenditures, this implies that the company will likely have to raise capital again in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，在可预见的未来，电动汽车销售产生的现金流不太可能支付其持续支出。因此，随着该公司继续投资于其增长，预计将在很长一段时间内出现亏损。考虑到增长跑道和预期支出，这意味着该公司可能不得不在中期内再次筹集资金。</blockquote></p><p> As of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 48,390 R1T and R1S pre-orders in the United States and Canada from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $1,000. Current production capacity at their existing plant is 150,000 vehicles p.a.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年9月30日，该公司在美国和加拿大约有48,390份R1T和R1S预购订单，客户每人支付了1,000美元的可取消和可全额退还的定金。他们现有工厂目前的生产能力为每年150,000辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts believe the company could make revenues of between US$20 billion and US$25 billion by 2025 if it achieves its aim of 350,000 vehicles produced annually. It its margins are similar to Tesla, this could mean approximately US$1.4 billion to US$1.7 billion in net profits. Again to compare, this is roughly what Tesla currently earns in profit per quarter, and Tesla's market capitalisation us just over US$1 trillion.RisksRivian has a limited operating history and has not generated material revenue from sales of its vehicles or other products and services to date. The company's medium term outlook depends largely on its ability to develop, manufacture, market and sell their EVs.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，如果该公司实现年产35万辆汽车的目标，到2025年该公司的收入可能在200亿至250亿美元之间。如果其利润率与特斯拉相似，这可能意味着净利润约为14亿至17亿美元。再次比较一下，这大致相当于特斯拉目前每季度的利润，而特斯拉的市值刚刚超过1万亿美元。风险Rivian的运营历史有限，尚未通过销售其车辆或其他产品和服务产生实质性收入迄今为止。该公司的中期前景很大程度上取决于其开发、制造、营销和销售电动汽车的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Initial deliveries for the R1T and R1S were and are, respectively, delayed, and the ramp up in production of these vehicles is taking longer than originally expected. This is due largely to the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly on labour availability and supply chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>R1T和R1S的初始交付分别被推迟，并且这些车辆的产量增加所需的时间比最初预期的要长。这主要是由于COVID-19大流行的持续影响，特别是对劳动力供应和供应链中断的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Another key issue facing Rivian is the difficulty the company has in accurately estimating the likely demand for their vehicles, and therefore in placing long term orders with suppliers, or to negotiate scaled discounts. This means that the company is likely to face significantly higher costs than an established manufacturer like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian面临的另一个关键问题是该公司难以准确估计对其车辆的可能需求，从而难以向供应商下长期订单或协商大规模折扣。这意味着该公司可能面临比特斯拉等老牌制造商高得多的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the company is starting with just two consumer models and one commercial model. This will likely only sustain respective markets' interests for so long. Eventually they will have to upgrade or redesign existing models, and or launch new ones in other segments. In those other segments, for example passenger and sports, they are going to face significantly tougher competition from more advanced offerings by established EV and conventional vehicle manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司一开始只有两种消费模式和一种商业模式。这可能只会在很长一段时间内维持各自市场的利益。最终，他们将不得不升级或重新设计现有车型，或者在其他细分市场推出新车型。在其他细分市场，例如乘用车和运动车，他们将面临来自老牌电动汽车和传统汽车制造商更先进产品的更加激烈的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian, by their own public admission (in their prospectus no less!) has limited experience in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs. This means that there is a significant execution risk in terms of them delivering on their short term and longer term goals.ConclusionsAt $122.99 closing price on Thursday, Rivian is capitalised at approximately US$100 billion. This is greater than U.S. majors Ford and General Motors, European prestige brand BMW, and twice the size of Japanese manufacturers Honda and Nissan. It's 71% the size of the world's largest car manufacturer by revenue, Volkswagen.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian自己公开承认（在他们的招股说明书中也是如此！）在设计、测试、制造、营销和销售电动汽车方面的经验有限。这意味着他们在实现短期和长期目标方面存在巨大的执行风险。结论Rivian周四收盘价为122.99美元，市值约为1000亿美元。这比美国巨头福特和通用汽车、欧洲知名品牌宝马还要大，也是日本制造商本田和日产的两倍。按收入计算，它的规模是全球最大汽车制造商大众汽车的71%。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst we let those comparisons settle in your mind, let us remind you that Rivian's only revenue so far is the $1,000 deposits it has taken on its presales, and has not yet delivered a single vehicle to customers.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们让这些比较留在您的脑海中，但让我们提醒您，Rivian迄今为止唯一的收入是它在预售中收取的1,000美元定金，并且尚未向客户交付一辆车。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is often compared to Tesla, both in terms of a template for what is possible in the disruptive EV space, but also as what is possible in terms of future profitability and potential market capitalisation. We would suggest that the fact both companies produce EVs is where the comparisons should end. Tesla was producing and selling vehicles prior to its IPO, and had very little competition when it started because it was a pioneer in the space. Rivian on the other hand, is entering a highly competitive EV landscape that now consists of all of the major, established producers.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian经常被比作特斯拉，不仅是颠覆性电动汽车领域的模板，也是未来盈利能力和潜在市值的模板。我们认为，两家公司都生产电动汽车这一事实应该结束比较。特斯拉在首次公开募股之前就在生产和销售汽车，刚开始时几乎没有竞争，因为它是该领域的先驱。另一方面，Rivian正在进入一个竞争激烈的电动汽车领域，该领域现在由所有主要的老牌生产商组成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9132ca6746200892bfe86ebef29927fd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>The Rivian R1T light truck</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>Rivian R1T轻型卡车</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Granted, Rivian is targeting the niche of light trucks and SUVs, which is largely underserviced at the moment. However, this is unlikely to remain so for long as other manufacturers, particularly Tesla, increasingly enter this segment (Tesla is currently selling a 'soft SUV', the Model X, but has plans to release a more adventure-focussed SUV and the Cybertruck in 2023).</p><p><blockquote>诚然，Rivian的目标是轻型卡车和SUV这一利基市场，而目前这一市场的服务基本上不足。然而，随着其他制造商，尤其是特斯拉，越来越多地进入这一细分市场，这种情况不太可能持续太久（特斯拉目前正在销售一款“软SUV”Model X，但计划发布一款更注重冒险的SUV和2023年的Cybertruck）。</blockquote></p><p> The company admits itself that it has \"limited experience, in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs\". It is an unproven entity that is trading at an extremely high valuation compared to its established peers. For this reason, we belive the execution risk is extreme<i>at the current valuation</i>(we couldn’t think of a word more extreme than 'extreme'…perhaps 'extremely extreme!?').</p><p><blockquote>该公司承认自己“在设计、测试、制造、营销和销售电动汽车方面的经验有限”。这是一个未经证实的实体，与成熟的同行相比，其交易估值极高。因此，我们认为执行风险极大<i>按当前估值</i>（我们想不出比‘极端’更极端的词了……也许是‘极端极端！？’）.</blockquote></p><p> We define 'execution risk' as the possibility the company does not deliver on its production and sales targets, potential negative impacts from the developing competitive landscape, and favourable consumer adoption of its products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将“执行风险”定义为公司无法实现其生产和销售目标的可能性、不断发展的竞争格局的潜在负面影响以及消费者对其产品的有利采用。</blockquote></p><p> However, on the upside, in the short term, the company's valuation likely depends more on what investors are prepared to pay for its shares rather than on its future profitability. Granted, ordinarily we would expect that these two concepts eventually merge. But in the current market environment, there are a great deal of investors who are only too keen to throw their investment dollars at companies like Rivian that are consistent with their beliefs and tastes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从好的方面来看，短期内该公司的估值可能更多地取决于投资者准备为其股票支付的费用，而不是其未来的盈利能力。当然，通常我们会期望这两个概念最终会融合。但在当前的市场环境下，有大量投资者热衷于将投资资金投入到像Rivian这样符合他们信仰和品味的公司。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, we believe that Rivian shares at their current price are grossly overvalued. However, we note that the EV industry is growing rapidly, and many investors can see and relate to the opportunity that this presents. Perhaps 'extremely extreme' risks are less important than the 'story', and possibly also the fear of missing out on 'the next Tesla'. For this reason, we expect Rivian shares will probably remain overvalued for some time, and therefore cannot rule out further gains in the short term.Rating & Fair Value TargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please note<i>a great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions</i>, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentially<i>everything going right</i>for Rivian out to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我们认为Rivian股票目前的价格被严重高估。然而，我们注意到电动汽车行业正在快速增长，许多投资者可以看到并感受到这带来的机会。也许“极其极端”的风险没有“故事”重要，也可能是对错过“下一个特斯拉”的恐惧。因此，我们预计Rivian股价可能会在一段时间内保持高估，因此不能排除短期内进一步上涨。评级和公允价值目标基于我们对该公司的盈利和盈利增长预测，请注意<i>为了形成这样的意见，我们不可避免地要进行大量的猜测</i>，我们可以接受高达620亿美元的估值。这将是我们的最高端<i>一切顺利</i>Rivian到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> We noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们在上面指出，执行风险很高，公允价值可能接近400亿美元。这些估值相当于每股50至76美元的股价。因此，我们别无选择，只能给予Rivian卖出、高风险评级。本网站包含的任何观点、新闻、研究、分析、价格或其他信息均作为一般市场评论提供，并不构成投资建议。ThinkMarkets对任何损失或损害不承担任何责任，包括但不限于因使用或依赖此类信息而直接或间接导致的任何利润损失。</blockquote></p><p> Rating & Fair Value </p><p><blockquote>评级及公允价值</blockquote></p><p> TargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please note<i>a great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions</i>, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentially<i>everything going right</i>for Rivian out to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>目标基于我们对公司的盈利和盈利增长预测，请注意<i>为了形成这样的意见，我们不可避免地要进行大量的猜测</i>，我们可以接受高达620亿美元的估值。这将是我们的最高端<i>一切顺利</i>Rivian到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> We noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们在上面指出，执行风险很高，公允价值可能接近400亿美元。这些估值相当于每股50至76美元的股价。因此，我们别无选择，只能给予Rivian卖出、高风险评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thinkmarkets.com/au/market-news/november-2021/are-rivian-automotive-shares-cheap-or-expensive/\">The fiscal times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thinkmarkets.com/au/market-news/november-2021/are-rivian-automotive-shares-cheap-or-expensive/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115192108","content_text":"We have now listed Rivian Automotive share CFDs on ThinkMarkets. To get started trading, all you need to do is create an account and select Rivian in your ThinkTrader watchlist.\nWhat’s best about Rivian share CFDs is that they let you take advantage of both rising and falling prices. That means with ThinkMarkets, if you think the price of Rivian Automotive is going to rise, you can go long its CFD, and if you think the price is going to fall, you can go short its CFD. Rivian Share CFDs are available on ThinkMarkets under the stock ticker RIVN.\nSo let’s take a closer look at Rivian Automotive and what’s behind all the hype?\nHighlights\n\nRivian History\nIPO\nOpportunity\nRisks\nConclusions\nRating & Fair Value Target\n\nHistoryStarted in 2012, Rivian is an American electric vehicle (EV) automaker and automotive technology company created by CEO Robert “RJ” Scaringe. Former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, called Rivian’s founder, RJ Scaringe, “one of the greatest entrepreneurs”.\nRivian originally started life as an EV sports car manufacturer (prior to officially rebranding in 2012), but changed tack because management realised they could not add significant value to what was already on offer in that space (i.e., Tesla). Instead, they decided to focus on a glaring hole in the EV market, light trucks and sports utility vehicles (SUVs).\n\nThe Rivian R1S sports utility vehicle\nToday, Rivian has two flagship consumer focussed EVs for sale, the R1T (light truck) and the R1S (SUV). It also has developed what it calls the Electric Delivery Van (\"EDV\"), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally.IPORivian's initial public offering (IPO) consisted of 153 million shares of Class A common stock at a public offering price of $78 per share, to raise US$11.9 billion. However there are a considerable number of shares already issued in the company, held by early and cornerstone investors. Two cornerstone investors are of particular note, Amazon which owns approximately 22%, and Ford Motor Co. which owns approximately 12% of Rivian shares.\n\nRivian Automotive (RIVN) price chart\nOpportunityRivian aims to address the large, fast-growing, and high-margin EV market. More specifically, it is targeting the niche light truck and SUVs segment which is currently significantly underserviced by existing EV manufacturers, particularly by major rival Tesla.\nIn addition to selling vehicles, strategy also includes value-added services such as digitally enabled financing, telematics-based insurance, proactive vehicle service (maintenance and repair), flexible membership and software services, comprehensive charging solutions, and a vehicle resale program. In addition to these services, the company will also offer consumers value adding accessories and applications aimed at improving the usage of Rivian's EVs.\nIn addition to consumer vehicles, also targeting commercial market via Rivian Commercial Vehicle (\"RCV\") platform. The first vehicle to be produced is the EDV, designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon who has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally. This is the largest order of EVs ever for any manufacturer.\nThe company believes that with the cost of EV ownership no longer a significant barrier to purchase, the EV revolution has begun. They note that approximately 90 million light vehicles are sold globally each year, and a significant proportion of these will inevitably transition to EVs. Further, trucks and SUVs comprise over 70% of new vehicle sales in the United States, are the fastest growing segment, and account for most of the profits generated by incumbent automobile manufacturers.\nGlobally, Rivian's total addressable market is around US$8.3 billion, with just under US$1 billion in the US. Of the US market, they believe the market for consumer EVs is approximately $650 million, and approximately $200 million for commercial EVs.FinancialsFor the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2020, we incurred net losses of $426 million and $1.0 billion, respectively. This is because the company has invested heavily in product development, and preparations for the initial launch of their vehicles which occurred in September 2021.\nA key positive of the financials for Rivian is that the company has minimal debt. Instead, it has funded the business by ways of a unsecured senior convertible promissory notes (a kind of a hybrid debt-equity instrument that starts as a loan but converts on maturity to stock at a predetermined stock price), and a number of historical preferred stock issues.\nFunding is the key for Rivian as it anticipates it will spend at least $8 billion through the end of 2023 to support their commercialisation and growth objectives. The company is currently burning around US$300 million in cash per quarter, with approximately US$3.5 billion cash in the bank (proceeds of the IPO included). This gives it a growth runway of approximately 3 years.\nThe company says that cash flows from the sales of its EVs are unlikely to cover its ongoing expenditure for the foreseeable future. As a result, the company expects to make losses for an extended period of time as it continues to invest in its growth. Given the growth runway, and expected expenditures, this implies that the company will likely have to raise capital again in the medium term.\nAs of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 48,390 R1T and R1S pre-orders in the United States and Canada from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $1,000. Current production capacity at their existing plant is 150,000 vehicles p.a.\nSome analysts believe the company could make revenues of between US$20 billion and US$25 billion by 2025 if it achieves its aim of 350,000 vehicles produced annually. It its margins are similar to Tesla, this could mean approximately US$1.4 billion to US$1.7 billion in net profits. Again to compare, this is roughly what Tesla currently earns in profit per quarter, and Tesla's market capitalisation us just over US$1 trillion.RisksRivian has a limited operating history and has not generated material revenue from sales of its vehicles or other products and services to date. The company's medium term outlook depends largely on its ability to develop, manufacture, market and sell their EVs.\nInitial deliveries for the R1T and R1S were and are, respectively, delayed, and the ramp up in production of these vehicles is taking longer than originally expected. This is due largely to the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly on labour availability and supply chain disruptions.\nAnother key issue facing Rivian is the difficulty the company has in accurately estimating the likely demand for their vehicles, and therefore in placing long term orders with suppliers, or to negotiate scaled discounts. This means that the company is likely to face significantly higher costs than an established manufacturer like Tesla.\nAlso, the company is starting with just two consumer models and one commercial model. This will likely only sustain respective markets' interests for so long. Eventually they will have to upgrade or redesign existing models, and or launch new ones in other segments. In those other segments, for example passenger and sports, they are going to face significantly tougher competition from more advanced offerings by established EV and conventional vehicle manufacturers.\nRivian, by their own public admission (in their prospectus no less!) has limited experience in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs. This means that there is a significant execution risk in terms of them delivering on their short term and longer term goals.ConclusionsAt $122.99 closing price on Thursday, Rivian is capitalised at approximately US$100 billion. This is greater than U.S. majors Ford and General Motors, European prestige brand BMW, and twice the size of Japanese manufacturers Honda and Nissan. It's 71% the size of the world's largest car manufacturer by revenue, Volkswagen.\nWhilst we let those comparisons settle in your mind, let us remind you that Rivian's only revenue so far is the $1,000 deposits it has taken on its presales, and has not yet delivered a single vehicle to customers.\nRivian is often compared to Tesla, both in terms of a template for what is possible in the disruptive EV space, but also as what is possible in terms of future profitability and potential market capitalisation. We would suggest that the fact both companies produce EVs is where the comparisons should end. Tesla was producing and selling vehicles prior to its IPO, and had very little competition when it started because it was a pioneer in the space. Rivian on the other hand, is entering a highly competitive EV landscape that now consists of all of the major, established producers.\n\nThe Rivian R1T light truck\nGranted, Rivian is targeting the niche of light trucks and SUVs, which is largely underserviced at the moment. However, this is unlikely to remain so for long as other manufacturers, particularly Tesla, increasingly enter this segment (Tesla is currently selling a 'soft SUV', the Model X, but has plans to release a more adventure-focussed SUV and the Cybertruck in 2023).\nThe company admits itself that it has \"limited experience, in designing, testing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling EVs\". It is an unproven entity that is trading at an extremely high valuation compared to its established peers. For this reason, we belive the execution risk is extremeat the current valuation(we couldn’t think of a word more extreme than 'extreme'…perhaps 'extremely extreme!?').\nWe define 'execution risk' as the possibility the company does not deliver on its production and sales targets, potential negative impacts from the developing competitive landscape, and favourable consumer adoption of its products.\nHowever, on the upside, in the short term, the company's valuation likely depends more on what investors are prepared to pay for its shares rather than on its future profitability. Granted, ordinarily we would expect that these two concepts eventually merge. But in the current market environment, there are a great deal of investors who are only too keen to throw their investment dollars at companies like Rivian that are consistent with their beliefs and tastes.\nIn conclusion, we believe that Rivian shares at their current price are grossly overvalued. However, we note that the EV industry is growing rapidly, and many investors can see and relate to the opportunity that this presents. Perhaps 'extremely extreme' risks are less important than the 'story', and possibly also the fear of missing out on 'the next Tesla'. For this reason, we expect Rivian shares will probably remain overvalued for some time, and therefore cannot rule out further gains in the short term.Rating & Fair Value TargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please notea great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentiallyeverything going rightfor Rivian out to 2025.\nWe noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.\nRating & Fair Value \nTargetBased upon our earnings and earnings growth estimates for the company, and please notea great deal of guesswork is inevitably required on our part to form such opinions, we could entertain a valuation of as high as US$62 billion. This would be our top end based upon essentiallyeverything going rightfor Rivian out to 2025.\nWe noted above however execution risk is high, and fair value is likely closer to US$40 billion. These valuations equate to a share price of between $50 to $76 per share. For this reason, we have no choice but to go with a Sell, High Risk rating on Rivian.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1938,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/879276744"}
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