我在瑟瑟发抖，却不_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-13

我在瑟瑟发抖，却不能抽身。

Doubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>

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Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182071013","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver ","content":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.<blockquote>通胀方面令人震惊的一周导致股市下跌，主要股指将全线下跌1%以上。尽管一些华尔街策略师认为几乎没有什么可以阻止股市进一步上涨或年底频繁的熔化。</blockquote> Yet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.<blockquote>然而，对挪威1.4万亿美元主权财富基金经理尼古拉·坦根（Nicolai Tangen）来说，这种担忧越来越严重，该基金是世界上最大的资金池。</blockquote> “We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.<blockquote>“我们正在关注兴奋程度。由于去年市场非常恐慌，我们已经进入了一个非常兴奋的阶段，我们只需要持续衡量兴奋程度，”Tangen在最近接受编辑Devin Banerjee采访时表示。LinkedIn的商业和金融。</blockquote> “And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.<blockquote>“然后，当然，真正的威胁是通胀。如果通胀真的起飞，这对我们的债券投资组合和股票投资组合来说都是坏消息。所以，这就是我们激光聚焦的地方，”Tangen补充道。</blockquote> It’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.<blockquote>这提醒人们，一些人认为的股市令人兴奋的时期并没有被忽视。</blockquote> That brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”<blockquote>这让我们想到了我们的今日看涨期权JonesTrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥罗克(Michael O’Rourke)就属于这一阵营，他的最新报告题为《以防出现泡沫疑虑》。</blockquote> He writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.<blockquote>他写道：“由于美国金融市场已经达到了新的疯狂水平，为了子孙后代，我们希望确保及时记录这一时刻。显然，我们没有从1999年至2008年间发生的股票、房地产和信贷泡沫中学到任何东西。</blockquote> “It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:<blockquote>提供这张图表的奥罗克补充道：“标普500的市值占美国GDP的177%，这一事实再清楚不过了。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dfce87383926286f5e338e535810e6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.<blockquote>他表示，在2000年科技泡沫期间，标普500的市值达到峰值，达到名义国内生产总值的121%。</blockquote> “That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.<blockquote>奥罗克表示：“这应该描绘出当今市场相对于上一代股票泡沫的昂贵程度。”他补充说，目前的水平也是过去三十年平均水平的两倍，是估值的三倍。2008-09年金融危机期间标普500触底的地方。</blockquote> “Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.<blockquote>他表示：“即使通胀对名义GDP的影响更大，它也需要在十年内以8%的速度增长才能恢复到历史市值与GDP平均水平。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb8a4b1f1bfec5d4e8585b0e47fd9d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> “The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a&nbsp;clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are&nbsp;among the few who fear a 50% S&amp;P 500 valuation drop that would bring the&nbsp;index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship&nbsp;to GDP,” he says.<blockquote>“价值3万亿美元的加密货币（其唯一目的似乎是投机）清楚地说明了一个无所畏惧的环境。尽管如此，我们是少数几个担心标普500估值下跌50%的人之一，这将使该指数的市值回归符合其与GDP的平均历史关系，”他说。</blockquote> O’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.<blockquote>奥罗克提醒我们，2000年3月至2002年10月期间，纳斯达克综合指数“痛苦地”下跌了80%。“想想看，今天的宽带比2000年3月贵了50%，”他说。</blockquote> Back then, Amazon&nbsp;was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.<blockquote>他说，当时，亚马逊是一家顶级互联网公司和备受推崇的股票，但1999年12月至2001年9月期间，其股价仍下跌了95%。</blockquote> The strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.<blockquote>这位策略师继续指责美联储和其他央行支撑市场。“今天的世界并不比二十年前更好，甚至可以说更糟。很简单，这些在短时间内进入经济的额外数万亿美元提供了一个特殊时期的借口，值得不可持续的估值，”他说。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-11-13 07:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.<blockquote>通胀方面令人震惊的一周导致股市下跌，主要股指将全线下跌1%以上。尽管一些华尔街策略师认为几乎没有什么可以阻止股市进一步上涨或年底频繁的熔化。</blockquote> Yet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.<blockquote>然而，对挪威1.4万亿美元主权财富基金经理尼古拉·坦根（Nicolai Tangen）来说，这种担忧越来越严重，该基金是世界上最大的资金池。</blockquote> “We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.<blockquote>“我们正在关注兴奋程度。由于去年市场非常恐慌，我们已经进入了一个非常兴奋的阶段，我们只需要持续衡量兴奋程度，”Tangen在最近接受编辑Devin Banerjee采访时表示。LinkedIn的商业和金融。</blockquote> “And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.<blockquote>“然后，当然，真正的威胁是通胀。如果通胀真的起飞，这对我们的债券投资组合和股票投资组合来说都是坏消息。所以，这就是我们激光聚焦的地方，”Tangen补充道。</blockquote> It’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.<blockquote>这提醒人们，一些人认为的股市令人兴奋的时期并没有被忽视。</blockquote> That brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”<blockquote>这让我们想到了我们的今日看涨期权JonesTrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥罗克(Michael O’Rourke)就属于这一阵营，他的最新报告题为《以防出现泡沫疑虑》。</blockquote> He writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.<blockquote>他写道：“由于美国金融市场已经达到了新的疯狂水平，为了子孙后代，我们希望确保及时记录这一时刻。显然，我们没有从1999年至2008年间发生的股票、房地产和信贷泡沫中学到任何东西。</blockquote> “It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:<blockquote>提供这张图表的奥罗克补充道：“标普500的市值占美国GDP的177%，这一事实再清楚不过了。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dfce87383926286f5e338e535810e6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.<blockquote>他表示，在2000年科技泡沫期间，标普500的市值达到峰值，达到名义国内生产总值的121%。</blockquote> “That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.<blockquote>奥罗克表示：“这应该描绘出当今市场相对于上一代股票泡沫的昂贵程度。”他补充说，目前的水平也是过去三十年平均水平的两倍，是估值的三倍。2008-09年金融危机期间标普500触底的地方。</blockquote> “Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.<blockquote>他表示：“即使通胀对名义GDP的影响更大，它也需要在十年内以8%的速度增长才能恢复到历史市值与GDP平均水平。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb8a4b1f1bfec5d4e8585b0e47fd9d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> “The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a&nbsp;clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are&nbsp;among the few who fear a 50% S&amp;P 500 valuation drop that would bring the&nbsp;index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship&nbsp;to GDP,” he says.<blockquote>“价值3万亿美元的加密货币（其唯一目的似乎是投机）清楚地说明了一个无所畏惧的环境。尽管如此，我们是少数几个担心标普500估值下跌50%的人之一，这将使该指数的市值回归符合其与GDP的平均历史关系，”他说。</blockquote> O’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.<blockquote>奥罗克提醒我们，2000年3月至2002年10月期间，纳斯达克综合指数“痛苦地”下跌了80%。“想想看，今天的宽带比2000年3月贵了50%，”他说。</blockquote> Back then, Amazon&nbsp;was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.<blockquote>他说，当时，亚马逊是一家顶级互联网公司和备受推崇的股票，但1999年12月至2001年9月期间，其股价仍下跌了95%。</blockquote> The strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.<blockquote>这位策略师继续指责美联储和其他央行支撑市场。“今天的世界并不比二十年前更好，甚至可以说更糟。很简单，这些在短时间内进入经济的额外数万亿美元提供了一个特殊时期的借口，值得不可持续的估值，”他说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubting-that-we-could-be-in-a-stock-market-bubble-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubting-that-we-could-be-in-a-stock-market-bubble-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182071013","content_text":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.\nYet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.\n“We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.\n“And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.\nIt’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.\nThat brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”\nHe writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.\n“It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:\nJonesTrading/Bloomberg\nDuring the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.\n“That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.\n“Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.\nJonesTrading/Bloomberg\n“The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are among the few who fear a 50% S&P 500 valuation drop that would bring the index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship to GDP,” he says.\nO’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.\nBack then, Amazon was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.\nThe strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3906,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/879494122"}