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Why the hottest inflation in 3 decades isn’t rattling stock-market bulls<blockquote>为什么三十年来最热的通胀并没有让股市多头感到不安</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":879611243,"tweetId":"879611243","gmtCreate":1636715530802,"gmtModify":1636715530939,"author":{"id":4088005490387040,"idStr":"4088005490387040","authorId":4088005490387040,"authorIdStr":"4088005490387040","name":"KCmax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45501c3f0f17a005aaae037440a22212","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":31,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like, thanks!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like, thanks!</body></html>","text":"Please like, thanks!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879611243","repostId":1144158970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144158970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636702548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144158970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the hottest inflation in 3 decades isn’t rattling stock-market bulls<blockquote>为什么三十年来最热的通胀并没有让股市多头感到不安</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144158970","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer price","content":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer prices rise 6.2% year-over-year in October, a nearly 31-year high. And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.<blockquote>股市投资者仍然没有为不断上升的通胀压力感到担忧，10月份美国消费者价格同比上涨6.2%，创近31年来新高。分析师表示，在美联储变得更加激进之前，这种情况可能不会改变。</blockquote> “U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)市场经济学家奥利弗·艾伦(Oliver Allen)在周四的一份报告中表示：“美国股市摆脱了今年通胀飙升的影响，可能是因为这与美国国债实际收益率上升或企业盈利疲软并不同时发生。”实际收益率是投资者在考虑通货膨胀后获得的收益率。</blockquote> Markets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.<blockquote>周三公布10月份消费者价格指数后，市场短暂动荡。名义美国国债收益率大幅上升，令股市承压，尤其是被视为对利率上升最敏感的科技和其他成长型板块。</blockquote> Equities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;lost 0.4%.<blockquote>周四股市稳定，而美国国债市场因美国退伍军人节假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周三下跌超过1%，周四上涨0.7%，标普500小幅上涨0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.4%。</blockquote> All three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.<blockquote>在经历了强劲的第三季度财报季后，所有三大指数均距离历史高点不远，企业保持了利润率并维持了相对乐观的指引。</blockquote> Inflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.<blockquote>当然，通货膨胀不一定对股市不利。股票被视为实物资产，这意味着它们在通胀环境下往往会升值，使其成为对冲通胀压力的有用工具。此外，Quant Insights的分析师表示，自2015年以来，股市对通胀压力的敏感度总体下降。</blockquote> However, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.<blockquote>然而，由于物价上涨对经济增长或美联储收紧货币政策的负面影响，通胀远高于低个位数，就像20世纪70年代和80年代初的大部分时间一样，往往与股市估值较低同时发生。艾伦指出，政策旨在降低通胀。</blockquote> But despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>但艾伦指出，尽管通胀似乎处于危险区域，但实际利率或经通胀调整的利率在收益率曲线的短端或长端都没有大幅上升。</blockquote> While the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).<blockquote>艾伦表示，虽然10月份CPI的发布促使周三10年期美国国债通胀保值证券收益率小幅上升，但过去六个月的总体模式是实际收益率下降，这似乎推动了美国股市走高（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077484a8788885d4c202fb3d6a80bd17\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Capital Economics<blockquote>凯投宏观</blockquote> Meanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>与此同时，周三10年期国债收益率的单日大幅上涨和联邦基金期货的走势反映了人们对美联储将加速缩减资产购买计划并在2022年更快、更激进地开始提高政策利率的预期。但DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周四的一份报告中表示，这并不表明投资者担心长期高通胀。</blockquote> The market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.<blockquote>周三的市场走势“完全是投资者调整对美联储政策的看法。如果（投资者）真的认为+6%的通胀率是‘新常态’，资产价格将会低得多，”Colas写道。</blockquote> And while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.<blockquote>他表示，尽管五年期通胀保值国债的盈亏平衡率创下新高，但仍表明未来五年通胀率仅为3%的预期。</blockquote> Some investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.<blockquote>一些投资者确实担心美联储已经失去了对通胀和通胀预期的控制。因此，政策制定者可能需要比预期更积极地收紧货币政策，这可能导致经济急剧下滑。</blockquote> But some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.<blockquote>但一些股市观察人士预计，在政策制定者显示出准备采取更激进行动的迹象之前，股市将继续受到支撑。</blockquote> The rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye在周四的一份报告中表示，周三债券收益率的上涨标志着从两周的大幅下跌中反弹，这种下跌并非基于基本面，因此不太可能持续。</blockquote> “During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&amp;P 500,” he said.<blockquote>“在此期间，科技股上涨并引领市场走高，我们看到这两项交易现在都在平仓。鉴于科技股的权重较大，这将是标普500的阻力，”他表示。</blockquote> “But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.<blockquote>他表示：“但除非美联储开始强烈暗示加速缩减规模或比预期早得多的加息，否则我们不认为昨天火爆的CPI或收益率上升是采取更多防御措施的理由。”相反，它提醒人们市场的主导趋势：高于正常水平的通胀和不断上升的收益率。</blockquote> A policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔警告说，美联储可能会在年底前改变政策，这可能会给股市带来麻烦。在周三接受CNBC采访时。</blockquote> “Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”<blockquote>他表示：“听着，在美联储认真对待通胀之前，股市都喜欢通胀，但他们并没有认真对待通胀。”他警告说，在央行12月中旬政策会议之前，更多与10月份报告一致的通胀数据将带来“巨大的压力”。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔面临“比迄今为止更大的压力”。</blockquote> Allen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.<blockquote>艾伦表示，凯投宏观预计美联储将继续“适度收紧货币政策的实际立场”，同时美国TIPS收益率将大幅走高。</blockquote> “The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”<blockquote>艾伦写道：“实际收益率下降的顺风变成了温和的逆风，这是我们认为美国股市在未来几年将难以上涨的原因之一。”“另一个原因是，我们认为美国经济的复苏将达不到投资者的预期。”</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the hottest inflation in 3 decades isn’t rattling stock-market bulls<blockquote>为什么三十年来最热的通胀并没有让股市多头感到不安</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketwatch2021-11-12 15:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer prices rise 6.2% year-over-year in October, a nearly 31-year high. And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.<blockquote>股市投资者仍然没有为不断上升的通胀压力感到担忧，10月份美国消费者价格同比上涨6.2%，创近31年来新高。分析师表示，在美联储变得更加激进之前，这种情况可能不会改变。</blockquote> “U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)市场经济学家奥利弗·艾伦(Oliver Allen)在周四的一份报告中表示：“美国股市摆脱了今年通胀飙升的影响，可能是因为这与美国国债实际收益率上升或企业盈利疲软并不同时发生。”实际收益率是投资者在考虑通货膨胀后获得的收益率。</blockquote> Markets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.<blockquote>周三公布10月份消费者价格指数后，市场短暂动荡。名义美国国债收益率大幅上升，令股市承压，尤其是被视为对利率上升最敏感的科技和其他成长型板块。</blockquote> Equities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;lost 0.4%.<blockquote>周四股市稳定，而美国国债市场因美国退伍军人节假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周三下跌超过1%，周四上涨0.7%，标普500小幅上涨0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.4%。</blockquote> All three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.<blockquote>在经历了强劲的第三季度财报季后，所有三大指数均距离历史高点不远，企业保持了利润率并维持了相对乐观的指引。</blockquote> Inflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.<blockquote>当然，通货膨胀不一定对股市不利。股票被视为实物资产，这意味着它们在通胀环境下往往会升值，使其成为对冲通胀压力的有用工具。此外，Quant Insights的分析师表示，自2015年以来，股市对通胀压力的敏感度总体下降。</blockquote> However, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.<blockquote>然而，由于物价上涨对经济增长或美联储收紧货币政策的负面影响，通胀远高于低个位数，就像20世纪70年代和80年代初的大部分时间一样，往往与股市估值较低同时发生。艾伦指出，政策旨在降低通胀。</blockquote> But despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>但艾伦指出，尽管通胀似乎处于危险区域，但实际利率或经通胀调整的利率在收益率曲线的短端或长端都没有大幅上升。</blockquote> While the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).<blockquote>艾伦表示，虽然10月份CPI的发布促使周三10年期美国国债通胀保值证券收益率小幅上升，但过去六个月的总体模式是实际收益率下降，这似乎推动了美国股市走高（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077484a8788885d4c202fb3d6a80bd17\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Capital Economics<blockquote>凯投宏观</blockquote> Meanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>与此同时，周三10年期国债收益率的单日大幅上涨和联邦基金期货的走势反映了人们对美联储将加速缩减资产购买计划并在2022年更快、更激进地开始提高政策利率的预期。但DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周四的一份报告中表示，这并不表明投资者担心长期高通胀。</blockquote> The market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.<blockquote>周三的市场走势“完全是投资者调整对美联储政策的看法。如果（投资者）真的认为+6%的通胀率是‘新常态’，资产价格将会低得多，”Colas写道。</blockquote> And while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.<blockquote>他表示，尽管五年期通胀保值国债的盈亏平衡率创下新高，但仍表明未来五年通胀率仅为3%的预期。</blockquote> Some investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.<blockquote>一些投资者确实担心美联储已经失去了对通胀和通胀预期的控制。因此，政策制定者可能需要比预期更积极地收紧货币政策，这可能导致经济急剧下滑。</blockquote> But some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.<blockquote>但一些股市观察人士预计，在政策制定者显示出准备采取更激进行动的迹象之前，股市将继续受到支撑。</blockquote> The rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye在周四的一份报告中表示，周三债券收益率的上涨标志着从两周的大幅下跌中反弹，这种下跌并非基于基本面，因此不太可能持续。</blockquote> “During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&amp;P 500,” he said.<blockquote>“在此期间，科技股上涨并引领市场走高，我们看到这两项交易现在都在平仓。鉴于科技股的权重较大，这将是标普500的阻力，”他表示。</blockquote> “But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.<blockquote>他表示：“但除非美联储开始强烈暗示加速缩减规模或比预期早得多的加息，否则我们不认为昨天火爆的CPI或收益率上升是采取更多防御措施的理由。”相反，它提醒人们市场的主导趋势：高于正常水平的通胀和不断上升的收益率。</blockquote> A policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔警告说，美联储可能会在年底前改变政策，这可能会给股市带来麻烦。在周三接受CNBC采访时。</blockquote> “Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”<blockquote>他表示：“听着，在美联储认真对待通胀之前，股市都喜欢通胀，但他们并没有认真对待通胀。”他警告说，在央行12月中旬政策会议之前，更多与10月份报告一致的通胀数据将带来“巨大的压力”。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔面临“比迄今为止更大的压力”。</blockquote> Allen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.<blockquote>艾伦表示，凯投宏观预计美联储将继续“适度收紧货币政策的实际立场”，同时美国TIPS收益率将大幅走高。</blockquote> “The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”<blockquote>艾伦写道：“实际收益率下降的顺风变成了温和的逆风，这是我们认为美国股市在未来几年将难以上涨的原因之一。”“另一个原因是，我们认为美国经济的复苏将达不到投资者的预期。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-hottest-inflation-in-3-decades-isnt-rattling-stock-market-bulls-11636661515?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-hottest-inflation-in-3-decades-isnt-rattling-stock-market-bulls-11636661515?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1144158970","content_text":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer prices rise 6.2% year-over-year in October, a nearly 31-year high. And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.\n“U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.\nMarkets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.\nEquities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%.\nAll three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.\nInflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.\nHowever, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.\nBut despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.\nWhile the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).\nCapital Economics\nMeanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.\nThe market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.\nAnd while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.\nSome investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.\nBut some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.\nThe rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\n“During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&P 500,” he said.\n“But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.\nA policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.\n“Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”\nAllen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.\n“The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/879611243"}