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Why the hottest inflation in 3 decades isn’t rattling stock-market bulls<blockquote>为什么三十年来最严重的通货膨胀没有让股市多头感到不安</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":879611243,"tweetId":"879611243","gmtCreate":1636715530802,"gmtModify":1636715530939,"author":{"id":4088005490387040,"idStr":"4088005490387040","authorId":4088005490387040,"authorIdStr":"4088005490387040","name":"KCmax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45501c3f0f17a005aaae037440a22212","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":31,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like, thanks!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like, thanks!</body></html>","text":"Please like, thanks!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879611243","repostId":1144158970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144158970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636702548,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144158970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the hottest inflation in 3 decades isn’t rattling stock-market bulls<blockquote>为什么三十年来最严重的通货膨胀没有让股市多头感到不安</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144158970","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer price","content":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer prices rise 6.2% year-over-year in October, a nearly 31-year high. And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.<blockquote>美国 10 月份消费者价格同比上涨 6.2%，创下近 31 年来的新高，通胀压力不断上升，股市投资者仍然没有为不断上升的通胀压力而捏把汗。分析师表示，在美联储变得更加激进之前，这种情况可能不会改变。</blockquote> “U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.<blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）市场经济学家奥利弗-艾伦（Oliver Allen）在周四的一份报告中说：”美国股市对今年的通胀飙升不屑一顾，这可能是因为通胀飙升与美国国债实际收益率上升或企业盈利疲软不符。实际收益率是投资者在考虑通货膨胀后获得的收益率。</blockquote> Markets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.<blockquote>周三公布 10 月份消费者价格指数后，市场短暂动荡。名义国债收益率大幅上升，给股市带来压力，尤其是科技和其他被视为对利率上升最敏感的成长型行业。</blockquote> Equities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;lost 0.4%.<blockquote>周四股市保持稳定，而美国国债市场因美国退伍军人节假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周三下跌超过 1%，周四上涨 0.7%，标普500指数小幅上涨 0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.4%。</blockquote> All three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.<blockquote>三大股指均与历史高点相差不远，第三季度财报季表现强劲，企业维持利润率并维持相对乐观的指引。</blockquote> Inflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.<blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不一定对股市不利。股票被视为实物资产，这意味着它们往往会在通货膨胀环境中升值，这使它们成为对抗通货膨胀压力的有用对冲工具。此外，Quant Insights 分析师表示，自 2015 年以来，股市对通胀压力的敏感度总体上有所降低。</blockquote> However, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.<blockquote>然而，由于物价上涨对经济增长或美联储收紧货币政策的负面影响，远高于低个位数的通货膨胀率往往与较低的股市估值同时发生，艾伦指出，通货膨胀回落。</blockquote> But despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>不过，尽管通胀似乎处于危险区域，但艾伦指出，实际利率或通胀调整后的利率在收益率曲线的短端或长端都没有大幅上升。</blockquote> While the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).<blockquote>艾伦表示，虽然10月份CPI的公布促使10年期美国国债通胀保值证券收益率周三小幅上升，但过去六个月的总体模式的特点是实际收益率下降，这似乎推高了美国股市（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077484a8788885d4c202fb3d6a80bd17\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Capital Economics<blockquote>资本经济学</blockquote> Meanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>与此同时，10年期国债收益率单日大幅上涨以及周三联邦基金期货的走势反映了美联储将加速逐步缩减资产购买计划并开始在2022年提高政策利率的预期比预期更快、更积极。DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在周四的一份报告中说，但这并不表明投资者担心长期的高通胀。</blockquote> The market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.<blockquote>周三的市场走势 “完全是投资者调整对美联储政策的看法。如果[投资者]真的认为+6%的通胀率是'新常态'，资产价格就会低得多，”科拉斯写道。</blockquote> And while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.<blockquote>他说，虽然五年期国债通胀保值证券的盈亏平衡利率创下新高，但仍预示着未来五年通胀率将仅为 3%。</blockquote> Some investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.<blockquote>一些投资者确实担心美联储已经失去了对通胀和通胀预期的控制。因此，政策制定者可能需要比预期更积极地收紧货币政策，这可能导致经济急剧下滑。</blockquote> But some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.<blockquote>但一些股市观察人士预计，在政策制定者表现出准备采取更积极行动的迹象之前，股市将继续受到支撑。</blockquote> The rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research 创始人汤姆-埃萨耶（Tom Essaye）在周四的一份报告中说，周三债券收益率的上涨标志着债券收益率从两周的大幅下跌中反弹，这种下跌并非基于基本面，因此不太可能持续下去。</blockquote> “During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&amp;P 500,” he said.<blockquote>“在此期间，科技股反弹并引领市场走高，而我们现在看到这两个行业都在放松。鉴于科技股的权重较大，这将对标普500构成阻力，”他说。</blockquote> “But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.<blockquote>他说：“但除非美联储开始强烈暗示将加速缩减规模或比预期更早加息，否则我们并不认为昨天火热的CPI或收益率上升是采取更防御性措施的理由。”他认为，这反而提醒人们市场的主导趋势：高于正常水平的通胀和不断上升的收益率。</blockquote> A policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）警告说，美联储可能会在年底前做出政策转变，这可能会给股市带来麻烦。在周三接受 CNBC 采访时。</blockquote> “Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”<blockquote>“他说：”听着，在美联储认真对待通胀之前，股市都喜欢通胀，而他们并没有认真对待通胀。他警告说，在央行12月中旬政策会议之前，更多与10月份报告一致的通胀数据将给主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）带来 “巨大 ”压力，“迫使他比迄今为止表现得更加强劲”。</blockquote> Allen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.<blockquote>艾伦表示，凯投宏观（Capital Economics）预计美联储将继续 “在货币政策的实际立场上适度收紧”，同时美国TIPS收益率将进一步走高。</blockquote> “The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”<blockquote>“艾伦写道：”实际收益率下降的顺风变成了适度的逆风，这也是我们认为美国股市在未来几年难以上涨的原因之一。“另一个原因是，我们认为美国经济的复苏将低于投资者的预期。”</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.<blockquote>美国 10 月份消费者价格同比上涨 6.2%，创下近 31 年来的新高，通胀压力不断上升，股市投资者仍然没有为不断上升的通胀压力而捏把汗。分析师表示，在美联储变得更加激进之前，这种情况可能不会改变。</blockquote> “U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.<blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）市场经济学家奥利弗-艾伦（Oliver Allen）在周四的一份报告中说：”美国股市对今年的通胀飙升不屑一顾，这可能是因为通胀飙升与美国国债实际收益率上升或企业盈利疲软不符。实际收益率是投资者在考虑通货膨胀后获得的收益率。</blockquote> Markets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.<blockquote>周三公布 10 月份消费者价格指数后，市场短暂动荡。名义国债收益率大幅上升，给股市带来压力，尤其是科技和其他被视为对利率上升最敏感的成长型行业。</blockquote> Equities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;lost 0.4%.<blockquote>周四股市保持稳定，而美国国债市场因美国退伍军人节假期休市。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周三下跌超过 1%，周四上涨 0.7%，标普500指数小幅上涨 0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.4%。</blockquote> All three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.<blockquote>三大股指均与历史高点相差不远，第三季度财报季表现强劲，企业维持利润率并维持相对乐观的指引。</blockquote> Inflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.<blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不一定对股市不利。股票被视为实物资产，这意味着它们往往会在通货膨胀环境中升值，这使它们成为对抗通货膨胀压力的有用对冲工具。此外，Quant Insights 分析师表示，自 2015 年以来，股市对通胀压力的敏感度总体上有所降低。</blockquote> However, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.<blockquote>然而，由于物价上涨对经济增长或美联储收紧货币政策的负面影响，远高于低个位数的通货膨胀率往往与较低的股市估值同时发生，艾伦指出，通货膨胀回落。</blockquote> But despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>不过，尽管通胀似乎处于危险区域，但艾伦指出，实际利率或通胀调整后的利率在收益率曲线的短端或长端都没有大幅上升。</blockquote> While the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).<blockquote>艾伦表示，虽然10月份CPI的公布促使10年期美国国债通胀保值证券收益率周三小幅上升，但过去六个月的总体模式的特点是实际收益率下降，这似乎推高了美国股市（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077484a8788885d4c202fb3d6a80bd17\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"498\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Capital Economics<blockquote>资本经济学</blockquote> Meanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>与此同时，10年期国债收益率单日大幅上涨以及周三联邦基金期货的走势反映了美联储将加速逐步缩减资产购买计划并开始在2022年提高政策利率的预期比预期更快、更积极。DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在周四的一份报告中说，但这并不表明投资者担心长期的高通胀。</blockquote> The market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.<blockquote>周三的市场走势 “完全是投资者调整对美联储政策的看法。如果[投资者]真的认为+6%的通胀率是'新常态'，资产价格就会低得多，”科拉斯写道。</blockquote> And while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.<blockquote>他说，虽然五年期国债通胀保值证券的盈亏平衡利率创下新高，但仍预示着未来五年通胀率将仅为 3%。</blockquote> Some investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.<blockquote>一些投资者确实担心美联储已经失去了对通胀和通胀预期的控制。因此，政策制定者可能需要比预期更积极地收紧货币政策，这可能导致经济急剧下滑。</blockquote> But some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.<blockquote>但一些股市观察人士预计，在政策制定者表现出准备采取更积极行动的迹象之前，股市将继续受到支撑。</blockquote> The rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research 创始人汤姆-埃萨耶（Tom Essaye）在周四的一份报告中说，周三债券收益率的上涨标志着债券收益率从两周的大幅下跌中反弹，这种下跌并非基于基本面，因此不太可能持续下去。</blockquote> “During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&amp;P 500,” he said.<blockquote>“在此期间，科技股反弹并引领市场走高，而我们现在看到这两个行业都在放松。鉴于科技股的权重较大，这将对标普500构成阻力，”他说。</blockquote> “But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.<blockquote>他说：“但除非美联储开始强烈暗示将加速缩减规模或比预期更早加息，否则我们并不认为昨天火热的CPI或收益率上升是采取更防御性措施的理由。”他认为，这反而提醒人们市场的主导趋势：高于正常水平的通胀和不断上升的收益率。</blockquote> A policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）警告说，美联储可能会在年底前做出政策转变，这可能会给股市带来麻烦。在周三接受 CNBC 采访时。</blockquote> “Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”<blockquote>“他说：”听着，在美联储认真对待通胀之前，股市都喜欢通胀，而他们并没有认真对待通胀。他警告说，在央行12月中旬政策会议之前，更多与10月份报告一致的通胀数据将给主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）带来 “巨大 ”压力，“迫使他比迄今为止表现得更加强劲”。</blockquote> Allen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.<blockquote>艾伦表示，凯投宏观（Capital Economics）预计美联储将继续 “在货币政策的实际立场上适度收紧”，同时美国TIPS收益率将进一步走高。</blockquote> “The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”<blockquote>“艾伦写道：”实际收益率下降的顺风变成了适度的逆风，这也是我们认为美国股市在未来几年难以上涨的原因之一。“另一个原因是，我们认为美国经济的复苏将低于投资者的预期。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-hottest-inflation-in-3-decades-isnt-rattling-stock-market-bulls-11636661515?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-hottest-inflation-in-3-decades-isnt-rattling-stock-market-bulls-11636661515?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1144158970","content_text":"Stock market investors still aren’t sweating rising inflation pressures that saw U.S. consumer prices rise 6.2% year-over-year in October, a nearly 31-year high. And that might not change until the Federal Reserve gets more aggressive, analysts said.\n“U.S. equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasurys or weakness in corporate earnings,” said Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note. The real yield is the yield an investor receives after accounting for inflation.\nMarkets were briefly roiled following the October Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday. Nominal Treasury yields rose sharply, weighing on stocks, particularly technology and other growth-oriented sectors seen as most sensitive to rising interest rates.\nEquities were stable Thursday, while the Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which fell more than 1% on Wednesday, was up 0.7% Thursday, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%.\nAll three major indexes remain not far off all-time highs, coming off a robust third-quarter earnings season that saw companies maintain profit margins and maintain relatively upbeat guidance.\nInflation, of course, isn’t necessarily a negative for equities. Stocks are viewed as real assets, which means they tend to appreciate in an inflationary environment, making them a useful hedge against inflation pressures. Also, analysts at Quant Insights, say that stocks have grown less sensitive overall to inflation pressures since 2015.\nHowever, inflation well above the low single digits, as was the case in much of the 1970s and early 1980, has tended to coincide with lower stock-market valuations due to the negative effects of rising prices on economic growth or the Fed tightening monetary policy to bring inflation back down, Allen noted.\nBut despite inflation running in what would appear to be the danger zone, Allen noted that real, or inflation-adjusted interest rates, haven’t risen significantly at either the short or long end of the yield curve.\nWhile the October CPI release prompted a small rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities on Wednesday, the general pattern of the past six months has been characterized by falling real yields that have appeared to push U.S. equities higher, Allen said (see chart below).\nCapital Economics\nMeanwhile, the sharp, one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and moves in fed funds futures on Wednesday reflected expectations the Fed will accelerate the wind-down of its asset-buying program and begin lifting its policy interest rates in 2022 sooner and more aggressively than expected. But it didn’t indicate investors fear a long-lasting run of high inflation, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note.\nThe market action on Wednesday “was all about investors adjusting their views on Fed policy. If [investors] really thought plus-6% inflation was the ‘new normal,’ asset prices would be much, much lower,” Colas wrote.\nAnd while the breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation protected securities hit a new high, they’re still signaling expectations for inflation of just 3% over the next half-decade, he said.\nSome investors do fear the Fed has already lost control of inflation and inflation expectations. As result, policy makers may need to tighten monetary policy much more aggressively than anticipated, potentially leading to a sharp economic downturn.\nBut some stock-market watchers expect stocks to remain supported until policy makers show signs they’re prepared to take more aggressive action.\nThe rise in bond yields on Wednesday marked a bounce from a sharp two-week decline that wasn’t based on fundamentals and was, therefore, unlikely to last, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\n“During that period, tech rallied and led markets higher, and we’re seeing both trades now unwind. And given tech’s large weighting, that will be a headwind on the S&P 500,” he said.\n“But unless the Fed starts strongly hinting at an accelerated taper or a much- sooner-than-expected rate hike, we do not see yesterday’s hot CPI or rise in yields as a reason to get more defensive,” he said, arguing it was instead reminder of the dominant trends in the market: above-normal inflation and rising yields.\nA policy shift by the Fed could come before year-end, potentially spelling trouble for stocks, warned Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.\n“Listen, stocks love inflation until the Fed gets serious about it and they have not been serious about it,” he said, warning that more inflation data in line with the October report before the central bank’s mid-December policy meeting would put “enormous” pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell “to come down much stronger than he has so far.”\nAllen said Capital Economics expects the Fed to follow through with a “modest tightening in the real stance of monetary policy,” accompanied by a grind higher for U.S. TIPS yields.\n“The tailwind of falling real yields turning into a modest headwind is one reason why we think U.S. equities will struggle to make gains over the next couple of years,” Allen wrote. “Another reason is that we think the recovery in the US economy will fall short of investors’ expectations.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/879611243"}