Definitely. The potential for _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-08

Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.

Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited 股票值得购买吗？</blockquote>

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The potential for SEA is huge.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880406178","repostId":1120889633,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120889633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631068652,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120889633?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited 股票值得购买吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120889633","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention t","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.</li> <li>We help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6050b357f1df083177d9ed6c9d848071\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一只非常高质量的成长型股票，令人惊讶的是，它受到的关注度低于阿里巴巴-SW、MercadoLibre 和亚马逊，尽管它的表现无疑优于所有这些公司。</li><li>我们帮助投资者了解有用的分析框架中的关键指标，以评估 Sea Limited 的增长机会以及它是否值得长期持仓。</li><li>最后，我们提出了我们的估值论点，以帮助我们的读者决定是否应该立即添加 Sea Limited 股票。</li></ul>nuttapong/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.<blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）是我们增长投资组合中的核心持股之一，我们借此机会在去年的上升趋势中增加了该投资组合，因为该股令人难以置信的势头使其表现轻松优于其电子商务同行和移动游戏同行。</blockquote> For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，Sea令人难以置信的增长轨迹确实是非凡的，再加上它没有北京的疏忽，中国同行像多米诺骨牌一样倒下，甚至连机构投资者都对政府“整顿”调整的步伐感到震惊。</blockquote> Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.<blockquote>Sea 的崛起对于价值投资者来说也有些难题，因为他们不明白一家无利可图的公司如何能够以如此高的估值进行交易而不产生后果。</blockquote> Therefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.<blockquote>因此，为了回答 Sea Limited 股票是否适合投资者长期购买，我们将根据公司的业绩和未来的预测，向读者展示如何对公司应用适当的分析框架和估值处理，以便投资者可以做出有意义的决定他们认为 Sea Limited 现在是否值得长期添加到其投资组合中。</blockquote> For investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.<blockquote>对于刚接触Sea Limited的投资者，我们最近写了几篇关于该公司的文章，您可以将其作为序言。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0396874197381d0fc087a864425a26d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea &amp; Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)<blockquote>Sea &amp; Peers 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 9 月 3 日）</blockquote> This year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.<blockquote>今年，Sea 一直是我们投资组合中表现领先的股票之一，该股年初至今领先 83%，轻松优于所有同行和 SPDR 标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)。这一表现更加令人难以置信，因为它在 2020 年表现出色，回报率也达到了 392%。</blockquote> While the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what&nbsp;Amazon indicated&nbsp;in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).<blockquote>虽然它的其他美国和中国同行往往比这家总部位于新加坡的公司获得了更多的报道，但Sea一直在悄悄地交付。它一直在执行，扩展其Garena游戏生态系统，并达到新的里程碑。该公司一直在将其电子商务足迹扩展到拉丁美洲，并向亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）证明他们没有遇到任何重新开业的阻力。这与亚马逊在最近的财报中所表明的形成鲜明对比。该公司还在扩大其 Sea Money 足迹，特别是通过 Shopee/Shopee Pay 飞轮，因为该公司将其金融科技领导雄心与东南亚金融科技领导者 Grab（纳斯达克股票代码：AGC）进行竞争。</blockquote> As a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO&nbsp;Forrest Li&nbsp;is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.<blockquote>由于 Sea Limited 取得了令人难以置信的成功，该集团出生于中国的首席执行官 Forrest Li 现在也是新加坡首富，净资产达 203 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1620f0a51f5f3cdb4a59c482df5ec1f1\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>SE量化评级（动量）。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> We have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.<blockquote>我们一直提醒投资者，即使您看跌 Sea stock 的长期前景，也不应该做空它。该股票是我们在成长投资组合中见过的最强劲的上涨趋势之一。Seeking Alpha 专有的量化动量评级也证实了这一点，该评级为其最近的表现提供了最好的 A+ 评级。</blockquote> Given the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.<blockquote>鉴于该公司和该股迄今为止的出色表现，我们认为投资者询问 SE 未来的乐观情绪是否已在很大程度上得到定价是合适的，这对于尚未增持其股票的新投资者来说尤其重要，我们将重点介绍投资者如何使用分析框架来考虑公司的未来前景。</blockquote> Monitor Its Revenue Growth Closely<blockquote>密切监控其收入增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e796ddaf599085b7ad02d64a84dd3b87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ddcbf7578338f88c00c9432ab58f23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 季度收入同比增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Sea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"<blockquote>Sea Limited 对另一个令人敬畏的季度营收增长印象深刻，总收入同比增长 159%，收入为 $2.28B。其环比表现也十分出色，环比增长了 29%，因为该公司表明其重磅炸弹的增长“无限”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c7db30aeda80ea916ef8aa2816c93e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited GAAP 季度营业利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> For companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities&nbsp;despite having negative operating margins right now.<blockquote>对于像 Sea 这样的公司来说，其战略仍然非常注重营收增长和在此过程中建立规模效率，我们不应该过于担心其负营业利润率，只要该公司清楚地证明它可以像 Sea 一样快速增长，并在寻找“蓝海”时通过增加收入来实现规模经济。我们还在最近一篇关于 Snowflake（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW）的文章中阐明了这一点，该公司在一个拥有巨大扩张机会的巨大市场中运营，并且该公司已经表明，尽管目前营业利润率为负，但它可以很好地执行其战略来抓住这些收入机会。</blockquote> Therefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.<blockquote>因此，Sea Limited 无疑在这里指出了正确的观点，到目前为止，我们认为没有理由担心。现在对投资者来说重要的是，该公司是否仍有望在这种快速增长的过程中实现增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1bb9296424b15e07d5536227010fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 收入平均值共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5efed61b23216e709291326ae9eac3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Sea Limited 共识收入预测修正趋势。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Readers should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.<blockquote>读者应该很容易发现，在第二季度财报发布后，华尔街从第一季度财报后的预测上调了对该公司的收入预测。例如，21财年的收入预测增加了11.5%，以反映公司改进的指导。尽管 24 财年至 25 财年的预测看起来相当不温不火，但读者应该注意，只有三名分析师涵盖了 24 财年的预测，而只有两名分析师涵盖了 25 财年，而 18-21 名分析师涵盖了 21 财年至2023财年的数据。因此，我们也将把讨论的重点放在2023财年的数字上，以保持它们的意义。</blockquote> The expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs&nbsp;Chris Feng&nbsp;and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a&nbsp;modest&nbsp;profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.<blockquote>2020 财年至2023财年的预期收入复合年增长率为 59.1%，而 2021 财年至2023财年的预期收入复合年增长率为 40.1%。因此，市场仍然预计 Sea Limited 未来将实现显着的营收增长率。与此同时，在集团行政总裁李福及其管理团队的娴熟管理下，我们对Sea Limited的未来持谨慎乐观态度。该团队包括他的两位非常能干的业务部门主管克里斯·冯和特里·赵。冯出生于中国，领导着Shopee和Sea Money。他和李一样都是斯坦福校友，2014年被李从Lazada（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）招募。据说冯是一个 “非常非常聪明、非常非常自信 ”的人，“反应迅速，回忆能力出色”。赵是Garena的总裁。自公司成立以来，李就一直把赵留在他身边。李克强与阿里巴巴的马云不同，他更喜欢保持低调。尽管如此，他的团队的执行力仍然非常出色，我们认为没有理由认为这家由创始人领导的公司会有不同的发展。</blockquote> Keep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA<blockquote>密切关注 Shopee 调整后的 EBITDA</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070f4ed8c5f05a52744d9e20681865ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整后 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03828e68bf8d41a26be65d7ac633670\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整后。按部门划分的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Of particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.<blockquote>不过，特别令人担忧的是，该公司的调整后 EBITDA 自 2020 年第二季度以来首次转为负值，因为 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失超过了 Garena 在 2021 年第二季度所能弥补的损失。投资者应该能够从第二张图表中了解到，该图显示 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 亏损在 21 年第二季度增至 6.7977 亿美元，环比增长 64.8%，而 Garena 的调整后 EBITDA 在 21 年第二季度仅环比增长 3.3%。</blockquote> Despite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司还是强调其马来西亚市场已实现调整后的 EBITDA 盈利，加入了台湾市场。因此，我们认为，按商品总价值 (GMV) 计算，Shopee 的燃烧率可能会大幅增长，例如印度尼西亚和泰国。该公司还在其盈利看涨期权中提到了这一点，并强调：</blockquote> And in terms of sales and marketing&nbsp;and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera... And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month. And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3151acc225456e4078f859b16c1cb114\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn<blockquote>在销售和营销以及与竞争动态相关的方面，我认为我们——再次，正如我们之前讨论过的那样，鉴于我们强大的市场领导地位，我们现在处于有利地位，因为我们的销售和营销更多地受到我们对不同时间点不同市场投资效率的看法的驱动，例如，任何购物活动季节、任何推广品牌的特定机会等等……就现金消耗而言……当我们审视市场机会和市场时机时，例如，在第二季度，我们在包括印度尼西亚在内的几个最大市场都有斋月季节。这是一个投资增长和促进电子商务采用非常有效的时期。我们已经将购买频率提高到每月6次以上。在印度尼西亚，它已经超过了每月7倍，我们认为这对于一个市场平台来说是非常健康的。Shopee 印度尼西亚第 76 个独立日海报（Shopee 是为了印度尼西亚：Shopee 是为了印度尼西亚）。资料来源：Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn</blockquote> Now, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"<blockquote>现在，我们强调斋月（这不是印度尼西亚独有的），因为它是印度尼西亚一年一度的大型活动。我们在印度尼西亚雅加达呆了一年，我们可以告诉你，这是印度尼西亚年历中最重要的亮点之一。因此，我们无法进一步强调在这一重要事件中促进销售的机会。这表明 Shopee 的管理层显然非常了解其最重要的市场，并且在印度尼西亚于 8 月 17 日庆祝第 76 个独立日之际，Shopee 也将其进展与印度尼西亚的进展保持一致，正如 Shopee Indonesia 提醒印度尼西亚人“Shopee 适用于印度尼西亚。”</blockquote> Shopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.<blockquote>Shopee Indonesia 迅速进入了下一个大型 9.9 购物活动，这一次，他们招募了印度尼西亚著名演员兼武术家乔·塔斯利姆 (Joe Taslim)，他在最近的《真人快打》电影中饰演零度以下。对于熟悉Shopee广告策略的读者来说，该公司经常在其促销活动中启用当地知名艺术家。广告通常是古怪和戏剧性的，这有助于非常容易地抓住用户的注意力，并且通常令人难忘。这个配方对 Shopee 来说非常有效，但不知何故，Lazada 和 Tokopedia 等热情的区域竞争对手发现很难效仿。我们鼓励投资者和读者继续密切关注 Shopee 最重要的市场。</blockquote> Therefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.<blockquote>因此，在观察季度调整时。 EBITDA 回到负值区域并不是一个受欢迎的发展；我们需要考虑背景。就 Shopee 而言，这无疑是他们需要抓住的机会，以便在主要在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡庆祝的重要斋月节日期间充分利用这个机会来促进销售。因此，我们不会过于担心一个季度的发展而开始担忧，而是应该继续监测Shopee未来几个季度的调整后EBITDA的发展，并给公司一些空间来执行其电子商务战略。</blockquote> Watch for Advertising's Share of Revenue<blockquote>关注广告收入份额</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad9a6a626381510c8e2399b70a4d7ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee 调整。每个订单的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72fa0e85e8eb2ba3d4eb65c68e2f68f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度收费。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> As a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.<blockquote>由于 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失增加，由于其 2021 年第二季度的燃烧率较高，我们观察到 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失从 2021 年第一季度的 0.38 美元回落至 0.41 美元。然而，读者应该注意，这仅代表环比增长 7.9%，这肯定远低于调整后 EBITDA 总亏损的 64.8% 环比增幅。这清楚地表明，Shopee 正在受益于更高的规模效率，尽管由于本季度的投资较大，燃烧率较高。此外，调整后的每个订单 EBITDA 损失也没有“那么糟糕”，因为它仍然符合 2020 年第四季度的指标。此外，我们当然见过更糟糕的日子，这没什么了不起的。</blockquote> Importantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"<blockquote>重要的是，我们注意到 Shopee 在 21 年第二季度的接受率有了显着且持续的改善，从 21 年第一季度的 6.1% 提高到 6.7%。Sea Limited 非常清楚其盈利看涨期权，这一改善主要归因于该公司强调：“这种深化的货币化主要是由商家在 Shopee 平台上的营销和广告投资不断增长更好地吸引和服务买家。”</blockquote> We think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.<blockquote>我们认为这是 Shopee 发展中的一个关键发展，因为它将继续快速扩张。例如，在我们最近的亚马逊文章中，我们展示了该公司的广告机会有多大，因为它现在是亚马逊增长最快的收入驱动力，其90%的广告收入集中在其电子商务市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d892ee4f3fa12a1d7c862ecf56cf3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly sales &amp; marketing (S&amp;M) margin. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度销售和营销（S&amp;M）利润率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Therefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&amp;M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.<blockquote>因此，尽管我们看到 Shopee 的 S&amp;M 利润率从 21 年第一季度的 49% 显着增长到 21 年第二季度的 56.2%（环比增长 14.7%），但我们鼓励投资者考虑公司的总体调整后。每个订单的 EBITDA，这表明该公司拥有巨大的影响力通过在 Shopee 平台上更好的货币化来参与积极的营销活动。</blockquote> Garena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down<blockquote>Garena 的预订增长似乎正在放缓</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b13b4908d9a6b7a2ebd889cf4fc198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena bookings. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Garena预订。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> The company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"<blockquote>该公司报告称，Garena 的季度表现非常出色，在多个排行榜上名列前茅。Sea强调，Garena的Free Fire继续在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度保持令人难以置信的势头，成为票房最高的游戏。在美国，《Free Fire》“根据 App Annie 的数据，被评为过去两个季度票房最高的手机大逃杀游戏。此外，《Free Fire》在第二季度也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”</blockquote> While this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to&nbsp;Sensor Tower&nbsp;data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.<blockquote>虽然这确实令人印象深刻，但我们更愿意从全球角度来看待 Free Fire 与同行的表现。根据 2021 年上半年的 Sensor Tower 数据，虽然 Free Fire 在 Google Play 上排名第二，仅次于 Moon Active 的 Coin Master，但当我们将 App Store 收入最高的游戏应用（例如腾讯（OTCPK：TCEHY）王者荣耀（总体排名第一）和 PUBG Mobile battle-royale game（总体排名第二）以及 Roblox（总体排名第四）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX））纳入其中时，它的总收入仅排名第八。因此，虽然 Free Fire 在 Android 操作系统 (OS) 占主导地位的市场表现良好，但在 iOS 是领先操作系统的北美，它的表现却不太好（正如我们在 Digital Turbine（纳斯达克股票代码：APPS）文章附件中所展示的那样）。美国是最大和最重要的移动游戏市场，2020年占移动游戏市场份额的28%。Garena在iOS上的表现从来都不是一个强劲的公司，如果该公司能够提高其在App Store中的表现，这对Garena来说可能是巨大的。</blockquote> While the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:<blockquote>虽然该公司 21 财年第二季度的预订量仍然强劲，从 21 财年第一季度的 $1.1B 环比增长 9.1% 至 $1.2B，但该公司仅将 21 财年的预订量指引从 $4.5B 上调至 $4.7B。因此，当我们考虑到 H1’21 的总预订量为 $2.3B 时，该公司预计 H2’21 的预订量将达到 $2.3B，这意味着与 H1’21 相比，他们预计今年剩余时间的预订量不会有任何实质性增长。电话会议的一位分析师也注意到了这一点，集团首席企业官王彦军提醒道：</blockquote> We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform, is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e708cd17fe0c5aaf6c51772d63f48fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>我们认为，与去年相比，整体指引显示同比增长超过40%，这也是我们封锁开始后创纪录的一年。我认为这已经是一个非常强劲的表现了。正如您从游戏和我们指出的指标以及我们对如何发展游戏平台的看法中可以看出的那样，是继续扩大我们的用户群和付费用户群在全球各个市场，我们继续看到强劲的潜在增长。（摘自 21 年第二季度盈利看涨期权）季度付费用户（QPU）/季度活跃用户（QAU）。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5b4c4cef797d04f34591d7cb7ea08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>每用户平均预订量（ABPU）和每付费用户平均预订量（ABPPU））。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> The company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"<blockquote>该公司的预订趋势当然可以在每个用户或每个付费用户的基础上观察到。ABPPU 肯定一直呈下降趋势，这反映了每个付费用户货币化的下降，这很重要，因为付费用户是 Garena 创收的人。然而，尽管 ABPPU 有所下降，但我们并没有真正观察到 ABPU 趋势有意义的下降。这表明，尽管每个付费用户的肉“更少”，但新成立的付费用户一直在支持预订，我们当然可以从第一张图表中观察到这一点，其中QPU/QAU比率一直在持续增加，这表明Garena在转化其庞大的非付费用户群和货币化方面越来越好。考虑到截至 2021 年第二季度只有 12.7% 的用户是付费用户，我们认为这一点非常重要，这为公司提供了继续“施展魔法”将非付费用户货币化的巨大机会。对于此事，Sea Limited 毫不掩饰地强调：“……我们过去的业绩表明，即使在众所周知难以商业化的市场，我们通常也擅长商业化。因此，我们并不担心未来无法将内容商业化。但我们的重点仍然是扩大用户群，并将其打造成一个更大的平台，让我们能够真正利用它来构建一个更强大的游戏生态系统，其中包含非常强大的社交元素。”</blockquote> Building up eSports as a Social Platform<blockquote>将电子竞技打造为社交平台</blockquote> We shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:<blockquote>我们分享了之前对Garena的深入探讨（此处附有文章链接），Garena的雄心不仅仅是一个移动游戏应用程序。该公司有着巨大的野心，他们已经将电子竞技作为基础，为其游戏玩家建立社区，并将其发展成为一个社交平台，这可能类似于Roblox所推进的。Garena 此前已经强调了其建立这个有凝聚力和广泛的社交社区的雄心，因为它强调：</blockquote> ...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing. The revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:<blockquote>把它发展成一个社交平台人们不仅来玩核心游戏，还享受其他模式：闲逛、听音乐、社交生活……因此，我们的重点是继续推广一个基于大规模的在线平台和在线社区，并为他们提供社交参与的内容和机会，尝试不同的游戏模式，尝试不同的角色、头像或拥有不同的游戏方式。正如我们在 Garena 文章中强调的那样，全球电子竞技的收入并不那么重要，预计到 2024 年只能达到 $16.2B。尽管如此，整个战略意图是建立一个包罗万象的社交平台，这将推动令人难以置信的参与度，平台粘性超出了典型的游戏应用程序所能做到的。重要的是，该公司的总部也设在新加坡，新加坡政府正致力于在新加坡建设全球电子竞技中心，因为东南亚有望成为电子竞技发展最快的地区，而这个城市国家最近开设了一个巨大的 12,000 平方英尺的电子竞技体验中心，正如新加坡旅游局强调的那样：</blockquote> Our world-class events&nbsp;and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content. Garena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs&nbsp;Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.<blockquote>我们的世界级赛事和数字基础设施也使新加坡成为行业在此举办游戏和电子竞技赛事的有吸引力的地点。政府将继续支持公司通过尝试新的沉浸式内容格式和商业模式来突破界限，以及提升本地人才的质素，成为世界级内容的领先创作者。继 Roblox 在元宇宙开发过程中采取的成功策略之后，Garena 最近还邀请了 “全球知名 DJ Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike、Alok 和 KSHMR 为 Free Fire 的四周年纪念主题曲《Reunion》演唱”，我们认为 Garena 开发自己元宇宙的机会还处于早期阶段。</blockquote> Sea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership<blockquote>Sea Limited 声称拥有 MercadoLibre 在拉丁美洲的领导地位</blockquote> Without a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:<blockquote>毫无疑问，最受关注的是该公司进军拉丁美洲，Sea Limited 最近更新称，该公司已取得巨大进展。我们最近对这个话题进行了深入探讨，我们鼓励您在这里参考我们的文章。虽然我们认为MercadoLibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）是拉丁美洲无可争议的电子商务和金融科技领导者，尤其是在拉丁美洲最重要的市场：巴西，但Shopee的进步确实令人瞩目，因为它现在是巴西下载量排名第二的电子商务应用程序根据App Annie的数据。然而，尽管Shopee在巴西肯定取得了有意义的进展，但MELI是一个不同于Tokopedia和Lazada的竞争对手。MELI全面了解LatAm的电子商务领域，并拥有令人印象深刻的物流和履行网络，在LatAm臭名昭著的具有挑战性的物流基础设施中首屈一指。Sea Limited 也注意到了这一点，但该公司认为，随着它继续在拉丁美洲投资，它将能够克服这些困难，这将帮助这些第三方物流提供商随着时间的推移提高效率和能力，并缩小与 MELI 的差距。 SE 强调：</blockquote> ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call) We have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&amp;T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.<blockquote>...由于不同平台上没有广泛产生大量的交易量或流量，因此物流可能也缺乏初始增长机会。但另一方面，我们亦希望，随著该地区电子商务场景的不断增长，以及我们的全球投资者更加关注该地区的增长机会，我们可能也会在该等市场看到类似的趋势。希望这是我们可以为市场做出的一些贡献，带来更多的机会，带来更多的数字化和电子商务生态系统，这不仅有助于Shopee的发展，还有助于周边服务的发展，包括该地区的第三方物流。我们已经与我们地区的3PLs合作，非常成功地发展了电子商务生态系统。与此同时，这些第三方合作伙伴也享有非常强劲的增长以及与Shopee的密切合作关系。我们很高兴在巴西或新市场继续采用这种模式。（摘自 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权）我们确实看到了 Shopee 与其东南亚物流合作伙伴之间的良好合作伙伴关系，以至于其在印度尼西亚的主要物流合作伙伴之一：J&amp;T Express 正在走上正轨在香港或美国进行 IPO。因此，虽然 MELI 目前在物流领域确实处于重要领先地位，但我们相信，如果 Shopee 愿意在东南亚采取积极主动的做法，拉丁美洲的物流基础设施在 Shopee 的参与下得到改善只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b58c9691ecea1beaa8e7bbec9861713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>梅利商业采取利率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> If we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.<blockquote>如果我们将 MELI 的商业采用率与 Shopee 的采用率进行比较，读者可以很容易地观察到拉丁美洲令人难以置信的货币化机会，我们也可以很容易地理解为什么 Sea Limited 如此热衷于剥夺 MercadoLibre 在那里的领导地位，因为它太有吸引力了。我们认为，随着 Sea Limited 在拉丁美洲的营销变得更加积极，MercadoLibre 将开始感受到压力，需要控制其利润丰厚的上座率，以与 Shopee 积极的营销策略竞争。</blockquote> Shopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.<blockquote>Shopee 已聘请国际影星成龙参与其全球 9.9 活动，其巴西版本（见上文）的浏览量（330 万次）甚至超过了我们上次调查的一些亚洲版本：印度尼西亚（120 万次浏览量）和新加坡（160 万次浏览量）。我们认为 Shopee 有可能对 MELI 高利润的接受率造成巨大损害，因为其东南亚业务已达到相当大的规模，我们认为他们已准备好充满信心地与拉丁美洲的电子商务领导者展开竞争。读者应该注意到，Shopee的电子商务业务比MELI大得多，因为Shopee的LTM GMV为$48.8B，而MELI的LTM GMV为$25.6B。</blockquote> Valuations Are Never Going to be Cheap<blockquote>估值永远不会便宜</blockquote> We used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).<blockquote>我们使用了混合 comps 估值，包括其 EV/Fwd Rev 倍数和 EV/Fwd EBITDA 倍数，使用 comps 集中的以下公司：亚马逊、腾讯控股、Roblox、MercadoLibre 和 Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。</blockquote> Using an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.<blockquote>使用基于2023财年对 EBITDA 和收入共识估计的积极估值方法，我们得出 EBITDA 倍数方法下的隐含公允价值约为 336.19 美元（中点），收入方法下的隐含公允价值约为 352.62 美元（中点）。将这些公允价值平均后，我们将得出混合公允价值为 344.41 美元，这表明较最后收盘价 353.36 美元可能下跌约 2.5%。</blockquote> Readers should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.<blockquote>读者还应注意，我们采用了激进的方法，没有考虑合理的安全边际。因此，从本质上讲，SE 股票现在看起来很昂贵，尽管我们预计对于像 Sea Limited 这样的优质成长型股票来说它并不便宜。</blockquote> SE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>SE股票价格走势及趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd66ba3ffcdaf31167f72ad7ac24d34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE stock price action (weekly).<blockquote>SE股票价格走势（每周）。</blockquote> The rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.<blockquote>SE 股票的快速上涨使得价格行为投资者几乎没有机会增加更多敞口。然而，我们仍然抓住了五月份的机会，增加了我们投资组合的更多敞口，此后就没有再增加过。</blockquote> While we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.<blockquote>虽然我们没有看到 SE 股票势头转变的任何迹象，但我们认真认为我们甚至不会考虑在这个价格水平增加敞口，因为我们积极的估值方法已经向我们表明，相当多的乐观情绪已经被定价。该股还开始出现冲高价格走势，这表明潜在的牛市陷阱情景。虽然价格走势尚未解决，但我们仍在关注是否有机会以相对于预期溢价更合理的执行价格进入现金担保看跌期权，以试图利用 SE 股票令人难以置信的势头。</blockquote> Hence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.<blockquote>因此，我们希望我们已经在前面的章节中证明了Sea Limited肯定处于其市场机会的早期阶段。尽管如此，该股的乐观情绪仍需首先趋于平稳，以便长期投资者能够以更合理的价格水平增加风险敞口。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited 股票值得购买吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited 股票值得购买吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 10:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.</li> <li>We help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6050b357f1df083177d9ed6c9d848071\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一只非常高质量的成长型股票，令人惊讶的是，它受到的关注度低于阿里巴巴-SW、MercadoLibre 和亚马逊，尽管它的表现无疑优于所有这些公司。</li><li>我们帮助投资者了解有用的分析框架中的关键指标，以评估 Sea Limited 的增长机会以及它是否值得长期持仓。</li><li>最后，我们提出了我们的估值论点，以帮助我们的读者决定是否应该立即添加 Sea Limited 股票。</li></ul>nuttapong/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.<blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）是我们增长投资组合中的核心持股之一，我们借此机会在去年的上升趋势中增加了该投资组合，因为该股令人难以置信的势头使其表现轻松优于其电子商务同行和移动游戏同行。</blockquote> For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，Sea令人难以置信的增长轨迹确实是非凡的，再加上它没有北京的疏忽，中国同行像多米诺骨牌一样倒下，甚至连机构投资者都对政府“整顿”调整的步伐感到震惊。</blockquote> Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.<blockquote>Sea 的崛起对于价值投资者来说也有些难题，因为他们不明白一家无利可图的公司如何能够以如此高的估值进行交易而不产生后果。</blockquote> Therefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.<blockquote>因此，为了回答 Sea Limited 股票是否适合投资者长期购买，我们将根据公司的业绩和未来的预测，向读者展示如何对公司应用适当的分析框架和估值处理，以便投资者可以做出有意义的决定他们认为 Sea Limited 现在是否值得长期添加到其投资组合中。</blockquote> For investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.<blockquote>对于刚接触Sea Limited的投资者，我们最近写了几篇关于该公司的文章，您可以将其作为序言。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0396874197381d0fc087a864425a26d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea &amp; Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)<blockquote>Sea &amp; Peers 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 9 月 3 日）</blockquote> This year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.<blockquote>今年，Sea 一直是我们投资组合中表现领先的股票之一，该股年初至今领先 83%，轻松优于所有同行和 SPDR 标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)。这一表现更加令人难以置信，因为它在 2020 年表现出色，回报率也达到了 392%。</blockquote> While the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what&nbsp;Amazon indicated&nbsp;in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).<blockquote>虽然它的其他美国和中国同行往往比这家总部位于新加坡的公司获得了更多的报道，但Sea一直在悄悄地交付。它一直在执行，扩展其Garena游戏生态系统，并达到新的里程碑。该公司一直在将其电子商务足迹扩展到拉丁美洲，并向亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）证明他们没有遇到任何重新开业的阻力。这与亚马逊在最近的财报中所表明的形成鲜明对比。该公司还在扩大其 Sea Money 足迹，特别是通过 Shopee/Shopee Pay 飞轮，因为该公司将其金融科技领导雄心与东南亚金融科技领导者 Grab（纳斯达克股票代码：AGC）进行竞争。</blockquote> As a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO&nbsp;Forrest Li&nbsp;is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.<blockquote>由于 Sea Limited 取得了令人难以置信的成功，该集团出生于中国的首席执行官 Forrest Li 现在也是新加坡首富，净资产达 203 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1620f0a51f5f3cdb4a59c482df5ec1f1\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>SE量化评级（动量）。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> We have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.<blockquote>我们一直提醒投资者，即使您看跌 Sea stock 的长期前景，也不应该做空它。该股票是我们在成长投资组合中见过的最强劲的上涨趋势之一。Seeking Alpha 专有的量化动量评级也证实了这一点，该评级为其最近的表现提供了最好的 A+ 评级。</blockquote> Given the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.<blockquote>鉴于该公司和该股迄今为止的出色表现，我们认为投资者询问 SE 未来的乐观情绪是否已在很大程度上得到定价是合适的，这对于尚未增持其股票的新投资者来说尤其重要，我们将重点介绍投资者如何使用分析框架来考虑公司的未来前景。</blockquote> Monitor Its Revenue Growth Closely<blockquote>密切监控其收入增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e796ddaf599085b7ad02d64a84dd3b87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ddcbf7578338f88c00c9432ab58f23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 季度收入同比增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Sea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"<blockquote>Sea Limited 对另一个令人敬畏的季度营收增长印象深刻，总收入同比增长 159%，收入为 $2.28B。其环比表现也十分出色，环比增长了 29%，因为该公司表明其重磅炸弹的增长“无限”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c7db30aeda80ea916ef8aa2816c93e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited GAAP 季度营业利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> For companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities&nbsp;despite having negative operating margins right now.<blockquote>对于像 Sea 这样的公司来说，其战略仍然非常注重营收增长和在此过程中建立规模效率，我们不应该过于担心其负营业利润率，只要该公司清楚地证明它可以像 Sea 一样快速增长，并在寻找“蓝海”时通过增加收入来实现规模经济。我们还在最近一篇关于 Snowflake（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW）的文章中阐明了这一点，该公司在一个拥有巨大扩张机会的巨大市场中运营，并且该公司已经表明，尽管目前营业利润率为负，但它可以很好地执行其战略来抓住这些收入机会。</blockquote> Therefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.<blockquote>因此，Sea Limited 无疑在这里指出了正确的观点，到目前为止，我们认为没有理由担心。现在对投资者来说重要的是，该公司是否仍有望在这种快速增长的过程中实现增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1bb9296424b15e07d5536227010fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited 收入平均值共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5efed61b23216e709291326ae9eac3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Sea Limited 共识收入预测修正趋势。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Readers should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.<blockquote>读者应该很容易发现，在第二季度财报发布后，华尔街从第一季度财报后的预测上调了对该公司的收入预测。例如，21财年的收入预测增加了11.5%，以反映公司改进的指导。尽管 24 财年至 25 财年的预测看起来相当不温不火，但读者应该注意，只有三名分析师涵盖了 24 财年的预测，而只有两名分析师涵盖了 25 财年，而 18-21 名分析师涵盖了 21 财年至2023财年的数据。因此，我们也将把讨论的重点放在2023财年的数字上，以保持它们的意义。</blockquote> The expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs&nbsp;Chris Feng&nbsp;and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a&nbsp;modest&nbsp;profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.<blockquote>2020 财年至2023财年的预期收入复合年增长率为 59.1%，而 2021 财年至2023财年的预期收入复合年增长率为 40.1%。因此，市场仍然预计 Sea Limited 未来将实现显着的营收增长率。与此同时，在集团行政总裁李福及其管理团队的娴熟管理下，我们对Sea Limited的未来持谨慎乐观态度。该团队包括他的两位非常能干的业务部门主管克里斯·冯和特里·赵。冯出生于中国，领导着Shopee和Sea Money。他和李一样都是斯坦福校友，2014年被李从Lazada（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）招募。据说冯是一个 “非常非常聪明、非常非常自信 ”的人，“反应迅速，回忆能力出色”。赵是Garena的总裁。自公司成立以来，李就一直把赵留在他身边。李克强与阿里巴巴的马云不同，他更喜欢保持低调。尽管如此，他的团队的执行力仍然非常出色，我们认为没有理由认为这家由创始人领导的公司会有不同的发展。</blockquote> Keep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA<blockquote>密切关注 Shopee 调整后的 EBITDA</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070f4ed8c5f05a52744d9e20681865ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整后 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03828e68bf8d41a26be65d7ac633670\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整后。按部门划分的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Of particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.<blockquote>不过，特别令人担忧的是，该公司的调整后 EBITDA 自 2020 年第二季度以来首次转为负值，因为 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失超过了 Garena 在 2021 年第二季度所能弥补的损失。投资者应该能够从第二张图表中了解到，该图显示 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 亏损在 21 年第二季度增至 6.7977 亿美元，环比增长 64.8%，而 Garena 的调整后 EBITDA 在 21 年第二季度仅环比增长 3.3%。</blockquote> Despite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司还是强调其马来西亚市场已实现调整后的 EBITDA 盈利，加入了台湾市场。因此，我们认为，按商品总价值 (GMV) 计算，Shopee 的燃烧率可能会大幅增长，例如印度尼西亚和泰国。该公司还在其盈利看涨期权中提到了这一点，并强调：</blockquote> And in terms of sales and marketing&nbsp;and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera... And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month. And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3151acc225456e4078f859b16c1cb114\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn<blockquote>在销售和营销以及与竞争动态相关的方面，我认为我们——再次，正如我们之前讨论过的那样，鉴于我们强大的市场领导地位，我们现在处于有利地位，因为我们的销售和营销更多地受到我们对不同时间点不同市场投资效率的看法的驱动，例如，任何购物活动季节、任何推广品牌的特定机会等等……就现金消耗而言……当我们审视市场机会和市场时机时，例如，在第二季度，我们在包括印度尼西亚在内的几个最大市场都有斋月季节。这是一个投资增长和促进电子商务采用非常有效的时期。我们已经将购买频率提高到每月6次以上。在印度尼西亚，它已经超过了每月7倍，我们认为这对于一个市场平台来说是非常健康的。Shopee 印度尼西亚第 76 个独立日海报（Shopee 是为了印度尼西亚：Shopee 是为了印度尼西亚）。资料来源：Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn</blockquote> Now, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"<blockquote>现在，我们强调斋月（这不是印度尼西亚独有的），因为它是印度尼西亚一年一度的大型活动。我们在印度尼西亚雅加达呆了一年，我们可以告诉你，这是印度尼西亚年历中最重要的亮点之一。因此，我们无法进一步强调在这一重要事件中促进销售的机会。这表明 Shopee 的管理层显然非常了解其最重要的市场，并且在印度尼西亚于 8 月 17 日庆祝第 76 个独立日之际，Shopee 也将其进展与印度尼西亚的进展保持一致，正如 Shopee Indonesia 提醒印度尼西亚人“Shopee 适用于印度尼西亚。”</blockquote> Shopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.<blockquote>Shopee Indonesia 迅速进入了下一个大型 9.9 购物活动，这一次，他们招募了印度尼西亚著名演员兼武术家乔·塔斯利姆 (Joe Taslim)，他在最近的《真人快打》电影中饰演零度以下。对于熟悉Shopee广告策略的读者来说，该公司经常在其促销活动中启用当地知名艺术家。广告通常是古怪和戏剧性的，这有助于非常容易地抓住用户的注意力，并且通常令人难忘。这个配方对 Shopee 来说非常有效，但不知何故，Lazada 和 Tokopedia 等热情的区域竞争对手发现很难效仿。我们鼓励投资者和读者继续密切关注 Shopee 最重要的市场。</blockquote> Therefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.<blockquote>因此，在观察季度调整时。 EBITDA 回到负值区域并不是一个受欢迎的发展；我们需要考虑背景。就 Shopee 而言，这无疑是他们需要抓住的机会，以便在主要在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡庆祝的重要斋月节日期间充分利用这个机会来促进销售。因此，我们不会过于担心一个季度的发展而开始担忧，而是应该继续监测Shopee未来几个季度的调整后EBITDA的发展，并给公司一些空间来执行其电子商务战略。</blockquote> Watch for Advertising's Share of Revenue<blockquote>关注广告收入份额</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad9a6a626381510c8e2399b70a4d7ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee 调整。每个订单的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72fa0e85e8eb2ba3d4eb65c68e2f68f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度收费。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> As a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.<blockquote>由于 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失增加，由于其 2021 年第二季度的燃烧率较高，我们观察到 Shopee 的调整后 EBITDA 损失从 2021 年第一季度的 0.38 美元回落至 0.41 美元。然而，读者应该注意，这仅代表环比增长 7.9%，这肯定远低于调整后 EBITDA 总亏损的 64.8% 环比增幅。这清楚地表明，Shopee 正在受益于更高的规模效率，尽管由于本季度的投资较大，燃烧率较高。此外，调整后的每个订单 EBITDA 损失也没有“那么糟糕”，因为它仍然符合 2020 年第四季度的指标。此外，我们当然见过更糟糕的日子，这没什么了不起的。</blockquote> Importantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"<blockquote>重要的是，我们注意到 Shopee 在 21 年第二季度的接受率有了显着且持续的改善，从 21 年第一季度的 6.1% 提高到 6.7%。Sea Limited 非常清楚其盈利看涨期权，这一改善主要归因于该公司强调：“这种深化的货币化主要是由商家在 Shopee 平台上的营销和广告投资不断增长更好地吸引和服务买家。”</blockquote> We think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.<blockquote>我们认为这是 Shopee 发展中的一个关键发展，因为它将继续快速扩张。例如，在我们最近的亚马逊文章中，我们展示了该公司的广告机会有多大，因为它现在是亚马逊增长最快的收入驱动力，其90%的广告收入集中在其电子商务市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d892ee4f3fa12a1d7c862ecf56cf3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly sales &amp; marketing (S&amp;M) margin. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度销售和营销（S&amp;M）利润率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Therefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&amp;M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.<blockquote>因此，尽管我们看到 Shopee 的 S&amp;M 利润率从 21 年第一季度的 49% 显着增长到 21 年第二季度的 56.2%（环比增长 14.7%），但我们鼓励投资者考虑公司的总体调整后。每个订单的 EBITDA，这表明该公司拥有巨大的影响力通过在 Shopee 平台上更好的货币化来参与积极的营销活动。</blockquote> Garena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down<blockquote>Garena 的预订增长似乎正在放缓</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b13b4908d9a6b7a2ebd889cf4fc198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena bookings. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Garena预订。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> The company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"<blockquote>该公司报告称，Garena 的季度表现非常出色，在多个排行榜上名列前茅。Sea强调，Garena的Free Fire继续在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度保持令人难以置信的势头，成为票房最高的游戏。在美国，《Free Fire》“根据 App Annie 的数据，被评为过去两个季度票房最高的手机大逃杀游戏。此外，《Free Fire》在第二季度也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”</blockquote> While this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to&nbsp;Sensor Tower&nbsp;data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.<blockquote>虽然这确实令人印象深刻，但我们更愿意从全球角度来看待 Free Fire 与同行的表现。根据 2021 年上半年的 Sensor Tower 数据，虽然 Free Fire 在 Google Play 上排名第二，仅次于 Moon Active 的 Coin Master，但当我们将 App Store 收入最高的游戏应用（例如腾讯（OTCPK：TCEHY）王者荣耀（总体排名第一）和 PUBG Mobile battle-royale game（总体排名第二）以及 Roblox（总体排名第四）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX））纳入其中时，它的总收入仅排名第八。因此，虽然 Free Fire 在 Android 操作系统 (OS) 占主导地位的市场表现良好，但在 iOS 是领先操作系统的北美，它的表现却不太好（正如我们在 Digital Turbine（纳斯达克股票代码：APPS）文章附件中所展示的那样）。美国是最大和最重要的移动游戏市场，2020年占移动游戏市场份额的28%。Garena在iOS上的表现从来都不是一个强劲的公司，如果该公司能够提高其在App Store中的表现，这对Garena来说可能是巨大的。</blockquote> While the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:<blockquote>虽然该公司 21 财年第二季度的预订量仍然强劲，从 21 财年第一季度的 $1.1B 环比增长 9.1% 至 $1.2B，但该公司仅将 21 财年的预订量指引从 $4.5B 上调至 $4.7B。因此，当我们考虑到 H1’21 的总预订量为 $2.3B 时，该公司预计 H2’21 的预订量将达到 $2.3B，这意味着与 H1’21 相比，他们预计今年剩余时间的预订量不会有任何实质性增长。电话会议的一位分析师也注意到了这一点，集团首席企业官王彦军提醒道：</blockquote> We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform, is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e708cd17fe0c5aaf6c51772d63f48fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>我们认为，与去年相比，整体指引显示同比增长超过40%，这也是我们封锁开始后创纪录的一年。我认为这已经是一个非常强劲的表现了。正如您从游戏和我们指出的指标以及我们对如何发展游戏平台的看法中可以看出的那样，是继续扩大我们的用户群和付费用户群在全球各个市场，我们继续看到强劲的潜在增长。（摘自 21 年第二季度盈利看涨期权）季度付费用户（QPU）/季度活跃用户（QAU）。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5b4c4cef797d04f34591d7cb7ea08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>每用户平均预订量（ABPU）和每付费用户平均预订量（ABPPU））。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> The company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"<blockquote>该公司的预订趋势当然可以在每个用户或每个付费用户的基础上观察到。ABPPU 肯定一直呈下降趋势，这反映了每个付费用户货币化的下降，这很重要，因为付费用户是 Garena 创收的人。然而，尽管 ABPPU 有所下降，但我们并没有真正观察到 ABPU 趋势有意义的下降。这表明，尽管每个付费用户的肉“更少”，但新成立的付费用户一直在支持预订，我们当然可以从第一张图表中观察到这一点，其中QPU/QAU比率一直在持续增加，这表明Garena在转化其庞大的非付费用户群和货币化方面越来越好。考虑到截至 2021 年第二季度只有 12.7% 的用户是付费用户，我们认为这一点非常重要，这为公司提供了继续“施展魔法”将非付费用户货币化的巨大机会。对于此事，Sea Limited 毫不掩饰地强调：“……我们过去的业绩表明，即使在众所周知难以商业化的市场，我们通常也擅长商业化。因此，我们并不担心未来无法将内容商业化。但我们的重点仍然是扩大用户群，并将其打造成一个更大的平台，让我们能够真正利用它来构建一个更强大的游戏生态系统，其中包含非常强大的社交元素。”</blockquote> Building up eSports as a Social Platform<blockquote>将电子竞技打造为社交平台</blockquote> We shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:<blockquote>我们分享了之前对Garena的深入探讨（此处附有文章链接），Garena的雄心不仅仅是一个移动游戏应用程序。该公司有着巨大的野心，他们已经将电子竞技作为基础，为其游戏玩家建立社区，并将其发展成为一个社交平台，这可能类似于Roblox所推进的。Garena 此前已经强调了其建立这个有凝聚力和广泛的社交社区的雄心，因为它强调：</blockquote> ...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing. The revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:<blockquote>把它发展成一个社交平台人们不仅来玩核心游戏，还享受其他模式：闲逛、听音乐、社交生活……因此，我们的重点是继续推广一个基于大规模的在线平台和在线社区，并为他们提供社交参与的内容和机会，尝试不同的游戏模式，尝试不同的角色、头像或拥有不同的游戏方式。正如我们在 Garena 文章中强调的那样，全球电子竞技的收入并不那么重要，预计到 2024 年只能达到 $16.2B。尽管如此，整个战略意图是建立一个包罗万象的社交平台，这将推动令人难以置信的参与度，平台粘性超出了典型的游戏应用程序所能做到的。重要的是，该公司的总部也设在新加坡，新加坡政府正致力于在新加坡建设全球电子竞技中心，因为东南亚有望成为电子竞技发展最快的地区，而这个城市国家最近开设了一个巨大的 12,000 平方英尺的电子竞技体验中心，正如新加坡旅游局强调的那样：</blockquote> Our world-class events&nbsp;and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content. Garena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs&nbsp;Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.<blockquote>我们的世界级赛事和数字基础设施也使新加坡成为行业在此举办游戏和电子竞技赛事的有吸引力的地点。政府将继续支持公司通过尝试新的沉浸式内容格式和商业模式来突破界限，以及提升本地人才的质素，成为世界级内容的领先创作者。继 Roblox 在元宇宙开发过程中采取的成功策略之后，Garena 最近还邀请了 “全球知名 DJ Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike、Alok 和 KSHMR 为 Free Fire 的四周年纪念主题曲《Reunion》演唱”，我们认为 Garena 开发自己元宇宙的机会还处于早期阶段。</blockquote> Sea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership<blockquote>Sea Limited 声称拥有 MercadoLibre 在拉丁美洲的领导地位</blockquote> Without a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:<blockquote>毫无疑问，最受关注的是该公司进军拉丁美洲，Sea Limited 最近更新称，该公司已取得巨大进展。我们最近对这个话题进行了深入探讨，我们鼓励您在这里参考我们的文章。虽然我们认为MercadoLibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）是拉丁美洲无可争议的电子商务和金融科技领导者，尤其是在拉丁美洲最重要的市场：巴西，但Shopee的进步确实令人瞩目，因为它现在是巴西下载量排名第二的电子商务应用程序根据App Annie的数据。然而，尽管Shopee在巴西肯定取得了有意义的进展，但MELI是一个不同于Tokopedia和Lazada的竞争对手。MELI全面了解LatAm的电子商务领域，并拥有令人印象深刻的物流和履行网络，在LatAm臭名昭著的具有挑战性的物流基础设施中首屈一指。Sea Limited 也注意到了这一点，但该公司认为，随着它继续在拉丁美洲投资，它将能够克服这些困难，这将帮助这些第三方物流提供商随着时间的推移提高效率和能力，并缩小与 MELI 的差距。 SE 强调：</blockquote> ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call) We have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&amp;T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.<blockquote>...由于不同平台上没有广泛产生大量的交易量或流量，因此物流可能也缺乏初始增长机会。但另一方面，我们亦希望，随著该地区电子商务场景的不断增长，以及我们的全球投资者更加关注该地区的增长机会，我们可能也会在该等市场看到类似的趋势。希望这是我们可以为市场做出的一些贡献，带来更多的机会，带来更多的数字化和电子商务生态系统，这不仅有助于Shopee的发展，还有助于周边服务的发展，包括该地区的第三方物流。我们已经与我们地区的3PLs合作，非常成功地发展了电子商务生态系统。与此同时，这些第三方合作伙伴也享有非常强劲的增长以及与Shopee的密切合作关系。我们很高兴在巴西或新市场继续采用这种模式。（摘自 2021 年第二季度收益看涨期权）我们确实看到了 Shopee 与其东南亚物流合作伙伴之间的良好合作伙伴关系，以至于其在印度尼西亚的主要物流合作伙伴之一：J&amp;T Express 正在走上正轨在香港或美国进行 IPO。因此，虽然 MELI 目前在物流领域确实处于重要领先地位，但我们相信，如果 Shopee 愿意在东南亚采取积极主动的做法，拉丁美洲的物流基础设施在 Shopee 的参与下得到改善只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b58c9691ecea1beaa8e7bbec9861713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>梅利商业采取利率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> If we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.<blockquote>如果我们将 MELI 的商业采用率与 Shopee 的采用率进行比较，读者可以很容易地观察到拉丁美洲令人难以置信的货币化机会，我们也可以很容易地理解为什么 Sea Limited 如此热衷于剥夺 MercadoLibre 在那里的领导地位，因为它太有吸引力了。我们认为，随着 Sea Limited 在拉丁美洲的营销变得更加积极，MercadoLibre 将开始感受到压力，需要控制其利润丰厚的上座率，以与 Shopee 积极的营销策略竞争。</blockquote> Shopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.<blockquote>Shopee 已聘请国际影星成龙参与其全球 9.9 活动，其巴西版本（见上文）的浏览量（330 万次）甚至超过了我们上次调查的一些亚洲版本：印度尼西亚（120 万次浏览量）和新加坡（160 万次浏览量）。我们认为 Shopee 有可能对 MELI 高利润的接受率造成巨大损害，因为其东南亚业务已达到相当大的规模，我们认为他们已准备好充满信心地与拉丁美洲的电子商务领导者展开竞争。读者应该注意到，Shopee的电子商务业务比MELI大得多，因为Shopee的LTM GMV为$48.8B，而MELI的LTM GMV为$25.6B。</blockquote> Valuations Are Never Going to be Cheap<blockquote>估值永远不会便宜</blockquote> We used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).<blockquote>我们使用了混合 comps 估值，包括其 EV/Fwd Rev 倍数和 EV/Fwd EBITDA 倍数，使用 comps 集中的以下公司：亚马逊、腾讯控股、Roblox、MercadoLibre 和 Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。</blockquote> Using an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.<blockquote>使用基于2023财年对 EBITDA 和收入共识估计的积极估值方法，我们得出 EBITDA 倍数方法下的隐含公允价值约为 336.19 美元（中点），收入方法下的隐含公允价值约为 352.62 美元（中点）。将这些公允价值平均后，我们将得出混合公允价值为 344.41 美元，这表明较最后收盘价 353.36 美元可能下跌约 2.5%。</blockquote> Readers should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.<blockquote>读者还应注意，我们采用了激进的方法，没有考虑合理的安全边际。因此，从本质上讲，SE 股票现在看起来很昂贵，尽管我们预计对于像 Sea Limited 这样的优质成长型股票来说它并不便宜。</blockquote> SE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>SE股票价格走势及趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd66ba3ffcdaf31167f72ad7ac24d34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE stock price action (weekly).<blockquote>SE股票价格走势（每周）。</blockquote> The rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.<blockquote>SE 股票的快速上涨使得价格行为投资者几乎没有机会增加更多敞口。然而，我们仍然抓住了五月份的机会，增加了我们投资组合的更多敞口，此后就没有再增加过。</blockquote> While we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.<blockquote>虽然我们没有看到 SE 股票势头转变的任何迹象，但我们认真认为我们甚至不会考虑在这个价格水平增加敞口，因为我们积极的估值方法已经向我们表明，相当多的乐观情绪已经被定价。该股还开始出现冲高价格走势，这表明潜在的牛市陷阱情景。虽然价格走势尚未解决，但我们仍在关注是否有机会以相对于预期溢价更合理的执行价格进入现金担保看跌期权，以试图利用 SE 股票令人难以置信的势头。</blockquote> Hence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.<blockquote>因此，我们希望我们已经在前面的章节中证明了Sea Limited肯定处于其市场机会的早期阶段。尽管如此，该股的乐观情绪仍需首先趋于平稳，以便长期投资者能够以更合理的价格水平增加风险敞口。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120889633","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.\nWe help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.\nLastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.\n\nnuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.\nFor growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.\nSea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.\nTherefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.\nFor investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.\nSea & Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)\nThis year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.\nWhile the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what Amazon indicated in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).\nAs a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO Forrest Li is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.\nSE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.\nGiven the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.\nMonitor Its Revenue Growth Closely\nSea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"\nSea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFor companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities despite having negative operating margins right now.\nTherefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.\nSea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nReaders should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.\nThe expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs Chris Feng and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a modest profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.\nKeep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings\nOf particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.\nDespite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:\n\n And in terms of sales and marketing and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera...\n And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month.\n And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform.\n\nShopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn\nNow, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"\nShopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.\nTherefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.\nWatch for Advertising's Share of Revenue\nShopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nShopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings\nAs a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.\nImportantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"\nWe think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.\nShopee quarterly sales & marketing (S&M) margin. Data source: Company filings\nTherefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.\nGarena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down\nGarena bookings. Data source: Company filings\nThe company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"\nWhile this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to Sensor Tower data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.\nWhile the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:\n\n We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform,\n is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nQuarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings\nAverage Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings\nThe company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"\nBuilding up eSports as a Social Platform\nWe shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:\n\n...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing.\n\nThe revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:\n\n Our world-class events and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content.\n\nGarena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.\nSea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership\nWithout a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:\n\n ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nWe have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.\nMELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings\nIf we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.\nShopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.\nValuations Are Never Going to be Cheap\nWe used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).\nUsing an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.\nReaders should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.\nSE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSE stock price action (weekly).\nThe rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.\nWhile we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.\nHence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880406178"}