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2021-09-08
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Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":880425516,"tweetId":"880425516","gmtCreate":1631074538735,"gmtModify":1631889951742,"author":{"id":3555618838812838,"idStr":"3555618838812838","authorId":3555618838812838,"authorIdStr":"3555618838812838","name":"adamkok94","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265cbc13af25fd5c5d975aafa794402","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","text":"like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880425516","repostId":2165368421,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880425516"}
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