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2021-09-08
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Tilray: 250 Million Reasons Shareholders Aren't Happy<blockquote>Tilray：股东不高兴的2.5亿个原因</blockquote>
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The enormous growth potential propelled the stock higher, but Tilray has to obtain these revenues via major acquisitions causing some heartburn amongst shareholders. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock due to the rich valuation and major M&A plans ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>蒂尔雷</b>(TLRY)在7月份公布财报后度过了重要的一天，这家加拿大大麻公司在短短几年内实现了40亿美元的收入未来。巨大的增长潜力推动股价走高，但Tilray必须通过重大收购来获得这些收入，这引起了股东的一些心痛。由于估值丰厚和未来的重大并购计划，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Questioned $4 Billion Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>40亿美元计划受到质疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Just the week before the Labor Day weekend in the U.S., CEO Irwin Simon again reiterated the need for stockholder support in increasing the share count of the company. Tilray proposes increasing the authorized capital stock of the company from 743 million shares to 990 million shares (~250 million shares). The Canadian cannabis company currently has ~450 million shares outstanding after closing the Aphria merger.</p><p><blockquote>就在美国劳动节周末的前一周，首席执行官欧文·西蒙（Irwin Simon）再次重申，在增加公司股票数量方面需要股东的支持。Tilray提议将公司法定股本从7.43亿股增加到9.9亿股（约2.5亿股）。在完成Aphria合并后，这家加拿大大麻公司目前拥有约4.5亿股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b420c4b834c287319c018bb6db57a3c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray proxy card</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Tilray代理卡</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray has a special meeting of stockholders on September 10 this week to again vote on the proposal to increase the share count to authorize management to execute future deals. The original meeting was planned for July 29 and adjourned to August 19 before being postponed again to this week.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray将于本周9月10日召开股东特别会议，再次就增加股份数量以授权管理层执行未来交易的提案进行投票。原定于7月29日举行的会议延期至8月19日，随后再次延期至本周。</blockquote></p><p> The company promotes having 49% of stock voting in favor of the deal, but Tilray needs a majority of 50.1% to approve the proposal. One can even suggest the company doesn't have the clear mandate of shareholders either way with at least 50% of shareholders against raising the share count.</p><p><blockquote>该公司主张拥有49%的股票投票支持该交易，但Tilray需要50.1%的多数票才能批准该提案。人们甚至可以说，无论如何，该公司都没有股东的明确授权，至少有50%的股东反对增加股份数量。</blockquote></p><p> The company has listed three pillars of growth for achieving the large revenue target by FY24:</p><p><blockquote>该公司列出了到2024财年实现大额收入目标的三大增长支柱：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Expand Canadian retail market share from 16% to 30%.</li> <li>Push European market to $1 billion in medical use alone.</li> <li>Expand into the U.S. market via deals similar to <b>MedMen Enterprises</b>(OTCQB:MMNFF) or other deals when federal legalization allows with a target of reaching THC sales in excess of $1 billion.</li> </ul> The key reason shareholders are likely balking on plans to drastically expand the shares outstanding is the vast difference between analyst revenue estimates and the company target for FY24. Remember, the company is already in FY22 with the fiscal year starting in June. The FY24 target is already less than 3 years away.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将加拿大零售市场份额从16%扩大到30%。</li><li>仅医疗用途就将欧洲市场推向10亿美元。</li><li>通过类似的交易拓展美国市场<b>MedMen企业</b>(OTCQB：MMNFF)或联邦合法化允许的其他交易，目标是THC销售额超过10亿美元。</li></ul>股东可能对大幅扩大已发行股票的计划犹豫不决的关键原因是分析师收入预期与公司2024财年目标之间存在巨大差异。请记住，该公司已经进入2022财年，财年从6月开始。距离2024财年目标已经不到3年了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Massive Revenue Boost Required</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要大幅增加收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on current analyst estimates, Tilray will need to more than triple FY24 revenue estimates to just reach these targets. The company will need to make massive deals in order to hit those targets.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前分析师的估计，Tilray需要将2024财年收入预期增加两倍以上才能实现这些目标。为了实现这些目标，该公司需要进行大规模交易。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, one needs to consider whether Tilray will even meet the objectives of growing revenues from the current run rate around $600 million to $1.37 billion in FY24 forecast. Analysts recently cut the revenue targets for FY22 to below $800 million.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，人们需要考虑Tilray是否能够实现2024财年预测的收入从目前的6亿美元左右增长到13.7亿美元的目标。分析师最近将2022财年的收入目标下调至8亿美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7b6c64b95262fe52a70ffbdd7f61b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A good place for Tilray to start is actually meeting current analyst estimates. Besides, some of the past deals haven't exactly worked out leading to additional fears the company is again chasing bad deals in order to just boost revenues.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray的一个好起点实际上是满足当前分析师的预期。此外，过去的一些交易并没有完全成功，导致人们更加担心该公司再次追逐糟糕的交易以增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Back in early 2019, Tilray bought Manitoba Harvest for up to C$419 million. The hemp foods company produced just $17 million in quarterly revenues for the February quarter and a similar run rate for May. Now two years after the deal, Manitoba Harvest is still under performing expectations. Not to mention, the Tilray/Aphria combination didn't exactly impress with the last quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年初，Tilray就以高达4.19亿加元的价格收购了Manitoba Harvest。大麻食品公司2月份季度的季度收入仅为1700万美元，5月份的运行率也类似。交易两年后的今天，马尼托巴丰收公司的表现仍低于预期。更不用说，Tilray/Aphria组合在上一季度的业绩中并没有给人留下深刻印象。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest fear could be another acquisition in the Canadian market where deals by <b>Canopy Growth</b>(CGC) and <b>HEXO</b>(HEXO) make an already highly competitive cannabis market far more fierce. Most investors want to see a combined Tilray and Aphria reach 30% market share via taking share from smaller players, not via buying revenues. The Canadian cannabis market continues to grow, and these sales gains are evident in the recent quarterly results of most Canadian players.</p><p><blockquote>最大的担忧可能是加拿大市场的另一项收购，交易由<b>冠层生长</b>（CGC）及<b>己糖</b>（HEXO）让竞争已经非常激烈的大麻市场变得更加激烈。大多数投资者希望看到Tilray和Aphria通过从较小的参与者那里夺取份额，而不是通过购买收入，达到30%的市场份额。加拿大大麻市场持续增长，这些销售增长在大多数加拿大参与者最近的季度业绩中显而易见。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12c6b39c3a57ad48c99b0f4ca2967d52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: New Cannabis Ventures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：新大麻企业</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last couple of quarters, the new Tilray took a massive hit in recreational cannabis sales. The talk by the former CEO of Aphria of reaching $4 billion in sales seems ill timed considering the difficulties with the company even consistently growing sales and hitting internal targets.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个季度中，新款Tilray在休闲大麻销售方面遭受了巨大打击。考虑到该公司在持续增长销售额和实现内部目标方面遇到的困难，Aphria前首席执行官关于销售额达到40亿美元的言论似乎不合时宜。</blockquote></p><p> Either way the vote goes, the market would be far more excited about the stock with actual proven organic growth. The stock already has a $6 billion market cap and the cannabis focused revenues are only in the $400 million range due to the large portion of revenues from the distribution business in Germany and the hemp foods business in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>无论投票结果如何，市场都会对具有实际有机增长的股票更加兴奋。该股的市值已经达到60亿美元，而由于大部分收入来自德国的分销业务和美国的大麻食品业务，专注于大麻的收入仅在4亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray is an expensive stock trading at far above 10x current cannabis revenues (including beverages). Naturally, investors should have concern about more M&A while the company was supposed to have the scale to greatly expand sales in Canada and Europe without needing to dilute shareholders again. Investors should avoid Tilray as the company is likely to end up paying up for attractive U.S. or European assets making the stock less valuable.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray是一只昂贵的股票，其交易价格远高于当前大麻收入（包括饮料）的10倍。当然，投资者应该担心更多的并购，而该公司本应拥有大幅扩大在加拿大和欧洲销售的规模，而无需再次稀释股东权益。投资者应该避开Tilray，因为该公司最终可能会为有吸引力的美国或欧洲资产买单，从而降低该股的价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tilray: 250 Million Reasons Shareholders Aren't Happy<blockquote>Tilray：股东不高兴的2.5亿个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTilray: 250 Million Reasons Shareholders Aren't Happy<blockquote>Tilray：股东不高兴的2.5亿个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 14:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tilray continues to urge shareholders to approve Proposal 1 to lift the authorized share count to 990 million shares.</li> <li>The Canadian cannabis company has proposed a plan to boost FY24 (June) revenue to $4 billion while current analyst estimates are only $1.37 billion.</li> <li>Investors are rightfully balking at the company boosting the authorized shares by ~250 million when organic growth is preferred.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249934089d2e4a12489b2ab623a7371b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Rick_Thompson/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Tilray继续敦促股东批准提案1，将授权股份数量提高到9.9亿股。</li><li>这家加拿大大麻公司提出了一项计划，将2024财年（6月）的收入提高到40亿美元，而目前分析师的估计仅为13.7亿美元。</li><li>当有机增长是首选时，投资者理所当然地不愿意该公司将授权股份增加约2.5亿股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Rick_Thompson/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tilray</b>(TLRY) had a huge day back in July following earnings as the Canadian cannabis company promoted a $4 billion revenue future in a just a few years. The enormous growth potential propelled the stock higher, but Tilray has to obtain these revenues via major acquisitions causing some heartburn amongst shareholders. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock due to the rich valuation and major M&A plans ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>蒂尔雷</b>(TLRY)在7月份公布财报后度过了重要的一天，这家加拿大大麻公司在短短几年内实现了40亿美元的收入未来。巨大的增长潜力推动股价走高，但Tilray必须通过重大收购来获得这些收入，这引起了股东的一些心痛。由于估值丰厚和未来的重大并购计划，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Questioned $4 Billion Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>40亿美元计划受到质疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Just the week before the Labor Day weekend in the U.S., CEO Irwin Simon again reiterated the need for stockholder support in increasing the share count of the company. Tilray proposes increasing the authorized capital stock of the company from 743 million shares to 990 million shares (~250 million shares). The Canadian cannabis company currently has ~450 million shares outstanding after closing the Aphria merger.</p><p><blockquote>就在美国劳动节周末的前一周，首席执行官欧文·西蒙（Irwin Simon）再次重申，在增加公司股票数量方面需要股东的支持。Tilray提议将公司法定股本从7.43亿股增加到9.9亿股（约2.5亿股）。在完成Aphria合并后，这家加拿大大麻公司目前拥有约4.5亿股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b420c4b834c287319c018bb6db57a3c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray proxy card</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Tilray代理卡</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray has a special meeting of stockholders on September 10 this week to again vote on the proposal to increase the share count to authorize management to execute future deals. The original meeting was planned for July 29 and adjourned to August 19 before being postponed again to this week.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray将于本周9月10日召开股东特别会议，再次就增加股份数量以授权管理层执行未来交易的提案进行投票。原定于7月29日举行的会议延期至8月19日，随后再次延期至本周。</blockquote></p><p> The company promotes having 49% of stock voting in favor of the deal, but Tilray needs a majority of 50.1% to approve the proposal. One can even suggest the company doesn't have the clear mandate of shareholders either way with at least 50% of shareholders against raising the share count.</p><p><blockquote>该公司主张拥有49%的股票投票支持该交易，但Tilray需要50.1%的多数票才能批准该提案。人们甚至可以说，无论如何，该公司都没有股东的明确授权，至少有50%的股东反对增加股份数量。</blockquote></p><p> The company has listed three pillars of growth for achieving the large revenue target by FY24:</p><p><blockquote>该公司列出了到2024财年实现大额收入目标的三大增长支柱：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Expand Canadian retail market share from 16% to 30%.</li> <li>Push European market to $1 billion in medical use alone.</li> <li>Expand into the U.S. market via deals similar to <b>MedMen Enterprises</b>(OTCQB:MMNFF) or other deals when federal legalization allows with a target of reaching THC sales in excess of $1 billion.</li> </ul> The key reason shareholders are likely balking on plans to drastically expand the shares outstanding is the vast difference between analyst revenue estimates and the company target for FY24. Remember, the company is already in FY22 with the fiscal year starting in June. The FY24 target is already less than 3 years away.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将加拿大零售市场份额从16%扩大到30%。</li><li>仅医疗用途就将欧洲市场推向10亿美元。</li><li>通过类似的交易拓展美国市场<b>MedMen企业</b>(OTCQB：MMNFF)或联邦合法化允许的其他交易，目标是THC销售额超过10亿美元。</li></ul>股东可能对大幅扩大已发行股票的计划犹豫不决的关键原因是分析师收入预期与公司2024财年目标之间存在巨大差异。请记住，该公司已经进入2022财年，财年从6月开始。距离2024财年目标已经不到3年了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Massive Revenue Boost Required</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要大幅增加收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on current analyst estimates, Tilray will need to more than triple FY24 revenue estimates to just reach these targets. The company will need to make massive deals in order to hit those targets.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前分析师的估计，Tilray需要将2024财年收入预期增加两倍以上才能实现这些目标。为了实现这些目标，该公司需要进行大规模交易。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, one needs to consider whether Tilray will even meet the objectives of growing revenues from the current run rate around $600 million to $1.37 billion in FY24 forecast. Analysts recently cut the revenue targets for FY22 to below $800 million.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，人们需要考虑Tilray是否能够实现2024财年预测的收入从目前的6亿美元左右增长到13.7亿美元的目标。分析师最近将2022财年的收入目标下调至8亿美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7b6c64b95262fe52a70ffbdd7f61b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A good place for Tilray to start is actually meeting current analyst estimates. Besides, some of the past deals haven't exactly worked out leading to additional fears the company is again chasing bad deals in order to just boost revenues.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray的一个好起点实际上是满足当前分析师的预期。此外，过去的一些交易并没有完全成功，导致人们更加担心该公司再次追逐糟糕的交易以增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Back in early 2019, Tilray bought Manitoba Harvest for up to C$419 million. The hemp foods company produced just $17 million in quarterly revenues for the February quarter and a similar run rate for May. Now two years after the deal, Manitoba Harvest is still under performing expectations. Not to mention, the Tilray/Aphria combination didn't exactly impress with the last quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年初，Tilray就以高达4.19亿加元的价格收购了Manitoba Harvest。大麻食品公司2月份季度的季度收入仅为1700万美元，5月份的运行率也类似。交易两年后的今天，马尼托巴丰收公司的表现仍低于预期。更不用说，Tilray/Aphria组合在上一季度的业绩中并没有给人留下深刻印象。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest fear could be another acquisition in the Canadian market where deals by <b>Canopy Growth</b>(CGC) and <b>HEXO</b>(HEXO) make an already highly competitive cannabis market far more fierce. Most investors want to see a combined Tilray and Aphria reach 30% market share via taking share from smaller players, not via buying revenues. The Canadian cannabis market continues to grow, and these sales gains are evident in the recent quarterly results of most Canadian players.</p><p><blockquote>最大的担忧可能是加拿大市场的另一项收购，交易由<b>冠层生长</b>（CGC）及<b>己糖</b>（HEXO）让竞争已经非常激烈的大麻市场变得更加激烈。大多数投资者希望看到Tilray和Aphria通过从较小的参与者那里夺取份额，而不是通过购买收入，达到30%的市场份额。加拿大大麻市场持续增长，这些销售增长在大多数加拿大参与者最近的季度业绩中显而易见。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12c6b39c3a57ad48c99b0f4ca2967d52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: New Cannabis Ventures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：新大麻企业</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last couple of quarters, the new Tilray took a massive hit in recreational cannabis sales. The talk by the former CEO of Aphria of reaching $4 billion in sales seems ill timed considering the difficulties with the company even consistently growing sales and hitting internal targets.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个季度中，新款Tilray在休闲大麻销售方面遭受了巨大打击。考虑到该公司在持续增长销售额和实现内部目标方面遇到的困难，Aphria前首席执行官关于销售额达到40亿美元的言论似乎不合时宜。</blockquote></p><p> Either way the vote goes, the market would be far more excited about the stock with actual proven organic growth. The stock already has a $6 billion market cap and the cannabis focused revenues are only in the $400 million range due to the large portion of revenues from the distribution business in Germany and the hemp foods business in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>无论投票结果如何，市场都会对具有实际有机增长的股票更加兴奋。该股的市值已经达到60亿美元，而由于大部分收入来自德国的分销业务和美国的大麻食品业务，专注于大麻的收入仅在4亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray is an expensive stock trading at far above 10x current cannabis revenues (including beverages). Naturally, investors should have concern about more M&A while the company was supposed to have the scale to greatly expand sales in Canada and Europe without needing to dilute shareholders again. Investors should avoid Tilray as the company is likely to end up paying up for attractive U.S. or European assets making the stock less valuable.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray是一只昂贵的股票，其交易价格远高于当前大麻收入（包括饮料）的10倍。当然，投资者应该担心更多的并购，而该公司本应拥有大幅扩大在加拿大和欧洲销售的规模，而无需再次稀释股东权益。投资者应该避开Tilray，因为该公司最终可能会为有吸引力的美国或欧洲资产买单，从而降低该股的价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453957-tilray-250-million-reasons-shareholders-arent-happy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453957-tilray-250-million-reasons-shareholders-arent-happy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152404673","content_text":"Summary\n\nTilray continues to urge shareholders to approve Proposal 1 to lift the authorized share count to 990 million shares.\nThe Canadian cannabis company has proposed a plan to boost FY24 (June) revenue to $4 billion while current analyst estimates are only $1.37 billion.\nInvestors are rightfully balking at the company boosting the authorized shares by ~250 million when organic growth is preferred.\n\nRick_Thompson/iStock via Getty Images\nTilray(TLRY) had a huge day back in July following earnings as the Canadian cannabis company promoted a $4 billion revenue future in a just a few years. The enormous growth potential propelled the stock higher, but Tilray has to obtain these revenues via major acquisitions causing some heartburn amongst shareholders. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock due to the rich valuation and major M&A plans ahead.\nQuestioned $4 Billion Plan\nJust the week before the Labor Day weekend in the U.S., CEO Irwin Simon again reiterated the need for stockholder support in increasing the share count of the company. Tilray proposes increasing the authorized capital stock of the company from 743 million shares to 990 million shares (~250 million shares). The Canadian cannabis company currently has ~450 million shares outstanding after closing the Aphria merger.\nSource: Tilray proxy card\nTilray has a special meeting of stockholders on September 10 this week to again vote on the proposal to increase the share count to authorize management to execute future deals. The original meeting was planned for July 29 and adjourned to August 19 before being postponed again to this week.\nThe company promotes having 49% of stock voting in favor of the deal, but Tilray needs a majority of 50.1% to approve the proposal. One can even suggest the company doesn't have the clear mandate of shareholders either way with at least 50% of shareholders against raising the share count.\nThe company has listed three pillars of growth for achieving the large revenue target by FY24:\n\nExpand Canadian retail market share from 16% to 30%.\nPush European market to $1 billion in medical use alone.\nExpand into the U.S. market via deals similar to MedMen Enterprises(OTCQB:MMNFF) or other deals when federal legalization allows with a target of reaching THC sales in excess of $1 billion.\n\nThe key reason shareholders are likely balking on plans to drastically expand the shares outstanding is the vast difference between analyst revenue estimates and the company target for FY24. Remember, the company is already in FY22 with the fiscal year starting in June. The FY24 target is already less than 3 years away.\nMassive Revenue Boost Required\nBased on current analyst estimates, Tilray will need to more than triple FY24 revenue estimates to just reach these targets. The company will need to make massive deals in order to hit those targets.\nOn top of that, one needs to consider whether Tilray will even meet the objectives of growing revenues from the current run rate around $600 million to $1.37 billion in FY24 forecast. Analysts recently cut the revenue targets for FY22 to below $800 million.\nData by YCharts\nA good place for Tilray to start is actually meeting current analyst estimates. Besides, some of the past deals haven't exactly worked out leading to additional fears the company is again chasing bad deals in order to just boost revenues.\nBack in early 2019, Tilray bought Manitoba Harvest for up to C$419 million. The hemp foods company produced just $17 million in quarterly revenues for the February quarter and a similar run rate for May. Now two years after the deal, Manitoba Harvest is still under performing expectations. Not to mention, the Tilray/Aphria combination didn't exactly impress with the last quarterly results.\nThe biggest fear could be another acquisition in the Canadian market where deals by Canopy Growth(CGC) and HEXO(HEXO) make an already highly competitive cannabis market far more fierce. Most investors want to see a combined Tilray and Aphria reach 30% market share via taking share from smaller players, not via buying revenues. The Canadian cannabis market continues to grow, and these sales gains are evident in the recent quarterly results of most Canadian players.\nSource: New Cannabis Ventures\nIn the last couple of quarters, the new Tilray took a massive hit in recreational cannabis sales. The talk by the former CEO of Aphria of reaching $4 billion in sales seems ill timed considering the difficulties with the company even consistently growing sales and hitting internal targets.\nEither way the vote goes, the market would be far more excited about the stock with actual proven organic growth. The stock already has a $6 billion market cap and the cannabis focused revenues are only in the $400 million range due to the large portion of revenues from the distribution business in Germany and the hemp foods business in the U.S.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Tilray is an expensive stock trading at far above 10x current cannabis revenues (including beverages). Naturally, investors should have concern about more M&A while the company was supposed to have the scale to greatly expand sales in Canada and Europe without needing to dilute shareholders again. Investors should avoid Tilray as the company is likely to end up paying up for attractive U.S. or European assets making the stock less valuable.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880780494"}
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