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2021-09-11
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Risk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，股市估值“硬”调整的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote>
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And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.</p><p><blockquote>从几乎所有指标来看，股市估值都处于“历史极端”状态。华尔街一位顶级策略师警告称，虽然估值调整不一定会导致市场回调，但“硬”调整的风险正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行首席策略师Binky Chadha在周四的一份报告中写道：“随着当前周期的快速推进，难以调整的风险正在增加。”</blockquote></p><p> The warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>这一警告发出之际，华尔街公司对股市继续上涨表示紧张，将主要股指推至历史新高，但没有出现任何重大回调。包括周五在内，标普500已经有214个交易日没有出现5%的回调，在此期间上涨了33%以上。根据道琼斯市场数据，这是自2018年2月2日结束的404天运行以来最长的没有回调的运行。</blockquote></p><p> Major indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周五，主要股指本周有望下跌，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数有可能将连跌扩大至五个交易日。标普500较9月3日创纪录的收盘价仅下跌1%，较2020年3月大流行低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Chadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>查达指出，虽然股票“非常昂贵”，但仅凭这一事实并不需要市场大幅调整。这是因为，如果股价上涨速度超过盈利增长速度，估值可能会下降，即使股价上涨，市盈率也会缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Those types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这些类型的软估值调整通常出现在盈利快速增长的复苏早期。然而，查达观察到，在这次复苏期间，市盈率的“压缩”缓慢且不均衡。</blockquote></p><p> Using trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>根据过去12个月的收益，标普500的市盈率从疫情最严重时的低点14升至2021年初的27。他指出，由于盈利超过了价格上涨，该指数随后压缩至23.1，下降了14%，但仍比10至20的历史区间高出15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee77cba9751ddd0cb4c42c1d02ed436d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Deutsche Bank</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Multiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.</p><p><blockquote>基于前瞻性盈利预测的市盈率一直在高位横盘整理。查达表示，其他比率，例如企业价值（EV）相对于EBIT（息税折旧及摊销前利润）和EV/EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润）较历史高点小幅下降，但仍高于科技泡沫峰值，而基于现金流的估值持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> Chadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.</p><p><blockquote>Chadha表示，盈利“令人惊讶的快速反弹”是极端估值最有可能的解释，并指出标普500的盈利已经连续五个季度前所未有地超过了自下而上的分析师普遍预期15至20个百分点。但他表示，这种动态似乎即将结束，并指出分析师的共识似乎已经赶上，而作为股市上涨关键驱动力的盈利超出预期和升级步伐将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> \"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“从基本面来看，我们认为市盈率较高的关键原因是市场对我们在盈利周期中所处位置的困惑，这在一定程度上反映了经济复苏的速度和惊喜以及由此产生的持续大幅上涨，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> And since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>查达表示，由于国内生产总值仍远低于趋势水平，人们普遍认为复苏的最佳时期尚未到来。他表示，问题在于，标普500公司最受影响的经济领域已经明显高于趋势，2/3的标普500行业集团的活动水平比趋势高出一个标准差或更多（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff72fc4d219104d5d04ba1768dce6f5a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Deutsche Bank</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“因此，周期要先进得多，风险在于经济活动开始放缓，而市场对尚未到来的大部分复苏以及持续的大幅上涨进行了定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Risk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，股市估值“硬”调整的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRisk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，股市估值“硬”调整的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 07:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha</p><p><blockquote>查达：高市盈率反映了“市场对我们在盈利周期中所处位置的困惑”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4dd275ed18f5023ec5874e9d6d56ce\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lost in the earnings cycle?</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迷失在盈利周期中？</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock-market valuations are \"historically extreme\" by almost every measure. And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.</p><p><blockquote>从几乎所有指标来看，股市估值都处于“历史极端”状态。华尔街一位顶级策略师警告称，虽然估值调整不一定会导致市场回调，但“硬”调整的风险正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行首席策略师Binky Chadha在周四的一份报告中写道：“随着当前周期的快速推进，难以调整的风险正在增加。”</blockquote></p><p> The warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>这一警告发出之际，华尔街公司对股市继续上涨表示紧张，将主要股指推至历史新高，但没有出现任何重大回调。包括周五在内，标普500已经有214个交易日没有出现5%的回调，在此期间上涨了33%以上。根据道琼斯市场数据，这是自2018年2月2日结束的404天运行以来最长的没有回调的运行。</blockquote></p><p> Major indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周五，主要股指本周有望下跌，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数有可能将连跌扩大至五个交易日。标普500较9月3日创纪录的收盘价仅下跌1%，较2020年3月大流行低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Chadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>查达指出，虽然股票“非常昂贵”，但仅凭这一事实并不需要市场大幅调整。这是因为，如果股价上涨速度超过盈利增长速度，估值可能会下降，即使股价上涨，市盈率也会缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Those types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这些类型的软估值调整通常出现在盈利快速增长的复苏早期。然而，查达观察到，在这次复苏期间，市盈率的“压缩”缓慢且不均衡。</blockquote></p><p> Using trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>根据过去12个月的收益，标普500的市盈率从疫情最严重时的低点14升至2021年初的27。他指出，由于盈利超过了价格上涨，该指数随后压缩至23.1，下降了14%，但仍比10至20的历史区间高出15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee77cba9751ddd0cb4c42c1d02ed436d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Deutsche Bank</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Multiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.</p><p><blockquote>基于前瞻性盈利预测的市盈率一直在高位横盘整理。查达表示，其他比率，例如企业价值（EV）相对于EBIT（息税折旧及摊销前利润）和EV/EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润）较历史高点小幅下降，但仍高于科技泡沫峰值，而基于现金流的估值持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> Chadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.</p><p><blockquote>Chadha表示，盈利“令人惊讶的快速反弹”是极端估值最有可能的解释，并指出标普500的盈利已经连续五个季度前所未有地超过了自下而上的分析师普遍预期15至20个百分点。但他表示，这种动态似乎即将结束，并指出分析师的共识似乎已经赶上，而作为股市上涨关键驱动力的盈利超出预期和升级步伐将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> \"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“从基本面来看，我们认为市盈率较高的关键原因是市场对我们在盈利周期中所处位置的困惑，这在一定程度上反映了经济复苏的速度和惊喜以及由此产生的持续大幅上涨，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> And since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>查达表示，由于国内生产总值仍远低于趋势水平，人们普遍认为复苏的最佳时期尚未到来。他表示，问题在于，标普500公司最受影响的经济领域已经明显高于趋势，2/3的标普500行业集团的活动水平比趋势高出一个标准差或更多（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff72fc4d219104d5d04ba1768dce6f5a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Deutsche Bank</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“因此，周期要先进得多，风险在于经济活动开始放缓，而市场对尚未到来的大部分复苏以及持续的大幅上涨进行了定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/risk-of-hard-stock-market-valuation-correction-is-growing-says-deutsche-bank-heres-why-11631292209?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/risk-of-hard-stock-market-valuation-correction-is-growing-says-deutsche-bank-heres-why-11631292209?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166537600","content_text":"High multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha\nLost in the earnings cycle?\nStock-market valuations are \"historically extreme\" by almost every measure. And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.\n\"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.\nThe warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMajor indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.\nChadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.\nThose types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.\nUsing trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.\nDeutsche Bank\nMultiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.\nChadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.\n\"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.\nAnd since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).\nDeutsche Bank\n\" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/881126543"}
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