NgKenny
2021-09-11
Well written good
Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote>
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As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将是比特币，桶店将是桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩盘、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你是加密货币，你需要两种处理崩溃的策略。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，在我写这篇文章的时候，它又开始暴跌了。作为一个空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但这对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔 10 万美元的多头来说是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为一个巨大的品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场就是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场喜欢赌徒，并确保他们以尽可能有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的……来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温-勒菲弗尔（Edwin Lefevre）于 1923 年撰写了一本名为《股票操作员回忆录》的经典交易书籍，讲述了著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西-利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的故事。当时的 “桶店 ”骗局和 1890-1930 年前后的总体交易环境至今基本没有变化（.但是，但是，想想我们现在的所有监管.）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易员，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，就像交易员注定要做的那样——由他们的交易对手和数学决定。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是 “桶式商店 ”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转入他们的账户余额的一个例子。在加密货币、股票等领域，隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、 “拉高和转储 ”等金融骗局仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______中的疯狂坠机是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>按你认为合适的方式填空：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>市场会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在对方平台上持有止损。</li><li>没有正当理由不要持有头寸。</li><li>如果您被困在车祸后，请做好坚守阵地的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>车祸正在发生，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次坠机事件。这是不可避免的。一个60,000美元的BTC是两个30,000美元的BTC。</li><li>买入车祸，但要在车祸发生后很久，尘埃落定。这是对投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商不会在最重要的时候将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃时没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指沉闷资产下跌 25%，但加密货币等任何辛辣资产下跌 50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>这是图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是一只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国社会打压推动的，中国社会打压比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的威权噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是非常强大的，对许多人来说不是好的，但对加密来说，它可能会非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果没有这一顺风或其他地缘政治因素，我预计比特币股价将跌破 2 万美元，但市场并不听我的。就像每一个看涨期权一样，你必须根据发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所示的牛市和熊市趋势。正如我所预期的那样，我徘徊在熊市趋势上，比特币就像变魔术一样，完全沿着牛市趋势上涨。投机就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>因此，上述趋势将会发展，我仍然看空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，那你就不知道，那就停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您是 Hodl 爱好者，请继续使用美元成本平均值。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果你不知道该怎么办，需要询问，那就卖掉你的菲亚特，把它存起来，等你确定自己的头寸后再买。</li><li>如果你想逢低买入，一定要持有，因为你可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一举动可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，要反对极端的举动，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会窒息，并且能够在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你和我一样，正在寻找一个重返赛场的机会，那么现在还不是时候。</li><li>如果您是 tyro 交易者，请仔细研究其中的每一个细节。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者杀戮的地方，因为这是新手失去衬衫的地方。</li></ol><b>我在干什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“囤积 ”我仅有的一点 “不稳定的硬币 ”。我正在关注当这一举措投降时看起来会有什么巨大的价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，那么在一切结束之后，一两周后，我将从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又降了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又涨了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将是比特币，加密将永远崩溃和月亮，这是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币会走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li> <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li> <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将是比特币，桶店将是桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩盘、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你是加密货币，你需要两种处理崩溃的策略。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，在我写这篇文章的时候，它又开始暴跌了。作为一个空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但这对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔 10 万美元的多头来说是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为一个巨大的品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场就是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场喜欢赌徒，并确保他们以尽可能有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的……来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温-勒菲弗尔（Edwin Lefevre）于 1923 年撰写了一本名为《股票操作员回忆录》的经典交易书籍，讲述了著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西-利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的故事。当时的 “桶店 ”骗局和 1890-1930 年前后的总体交易环境至今基本没有变化（.但是，但是，想想我们现在的所有监管.）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易员，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，就像交易员注定要做的那样——由他们的交易对手和数学决定。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是 “桶式商店 ”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转入他们的账户余额的一个例子。在加密货币、股票等领域，隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、 “拉高和转储 ”等金融骗局仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______中的疯狂坠机是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>按你认为合适的方式填空：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>市场会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在对方平台上持有止损。</li><li>没有正当理由不要持有头寸。</li><li>如果您被困在车祸后，请做好坚守阵地的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>车祸正在发生，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次坠机事件。这是不可避免的。一个60,000美元的BTC是两个30,000美元的BTC。</li><li>买入车祸，但要在车祸发生后很久，尘埃落定。这是对投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商不会在最重要的时候将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃时没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指沉闷资产下跌 25%，但加密货币等任何辛辣资产下跌 50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>这是图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是一只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国社会打压推动的，中国社会打压比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的威权噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是非常强大的，对许多人来说不是好的，但对加密来说，它可能会非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果没有这一顺风或其他地缘政治因素，我预计比特币股价将跌破 2 万美元，但市场并不听我的。就像每一个看涨期权一样，你必须根据发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所示的牛市和熊市趋势。正如我所预期的那样，我徘徊在熊市趋势上，比特币就像变魔术一样，完全沿着牛市趋势上涨。投机就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>因此，上述趋势将会发展，我仍然看空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，那你就不知道，那就停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您是 Hodl 爱好者，请继续使用美元成本平均值。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果你不知道该怎么办，需要询问，那就卖掉你的菲亚特，把它存起来，等你确定自己的头寸后再买。</li><li>如果你想逢低买入，一定要持有，因为你可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一举动可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，要反对极端的举动，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会窒息，并且能够在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你和我一样，正在寻找一个重返赛场的机会，那么现在还不是时候。</li><li>如果您是 tyro 交易者，请仔细研究其中的每一个细节。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者杀戮的地方，因为这是新手失去衬衫的地方。</li></ol><b>我在干什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“囤积 ”我仅有的一点 “不稳定的硬币 ”。我正在关注当这一举措投降时看起来会有什么巨大的价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，那么在一切结束之后，一两周后，我将从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又降了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又涨了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将是比特币，加密将永远崩溃和月亮，这是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币会走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01611":"新火集团","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","01499":"欧科云链","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"01499":0.9,"01611":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/881182958"}
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