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2021-09-17
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AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD股票：强劲的势头和强劲的复合年回报之路</blockquote>
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CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业智慧。AMD迅速多元化到新的产品线，并因以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面报道。如果你看一下AMD的长期价格图表，你会发现这是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度利用公司杠杆的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报都流向了债权人而不是股东。现在AMD在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li> <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li> <li>The party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li> <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li> <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li> <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li> <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li> <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和杠杆率过高迫使AMD在下行周期通过垃圾债券（通常是可转换债券）筹集资金。可转换债券价格昂贵，因为它通常会支付利息并稀释股东权益。一般来说，精明的高净值投资者和机构通常更喜欢可转换债券，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街随意攻击它们。可转换债务往往由信用评级低和/或投机性业务前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD和美光科技(MU)等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体公司的新一代管理团队已经想出了如何更好地管理风险和杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决杠杆率过高的问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率向AMD提供资本，从而带来良性循环，这应该会成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD宣布他们将收购芯片制造商Xilinx(XLNX)，从战略角度来看，共识似乎是这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，该交易可能会也可能不会真正完成，中国监管机构需要批准该交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为这会给AMD带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果AMD将部分利润再投资于该业务，该公司到2024年每股收益可能会超过7美元。</li><li>管理层的盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下降就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只预测到2023年，但他们确实认为AMD的盈利每年增长20%以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD股票应该或多或少地随着盈利增长而升值。2022年的盈利为3.50美元，市盈率为36倍，这意味着AMD的12个月目标价约为126美元（上涨20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还会有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD认为，数据中心是一个每年超过300亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD正在稳步提升包括数据中心在内的服务器类别的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年中建立了比英特尔(INTC)更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），并给AMD一个发挥优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给该公司带来风险。此外，收购赛灵思需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国的几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了AMD供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实缓解，这可能会成为该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自从苏姿丰接手以来，AMD在每一个转折点上都胜过了英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率远低于AMD，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面更具优势。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售效率低下的廉价芯片，并导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价不会像你想象的那样帮助你。由于数据中心的持续承载成本，AMD可以仅通过构建技术来赢得市场份额，无论他们的竞争对手采取什么定价策略。</li><li>AMD存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题往往与其永久的失败者地位有关。以英特尔为例，它拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上比他们获得了优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为获胜企业的股票定价时，对成功反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获利并支出（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会持续获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致获胜股票的年回报率超过20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转向时，AMD股东可能希望出售，但AMD是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来12个月内再上涨20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权是正确的，如果市盈率至少保持在28-30倍的范围内，AMD的年复合回报率约为25%，到2024年，AMD的交易价格应该会接近200美元。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但AMD似乎是当今科技领域最值得买入的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD股票：强劲的势头和强劲的复合年回报之路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD股票：强劲的势头和强劲的复合年回报之路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.</li> <li>Today, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.</li> <li>AMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.</li> <li>Why momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在2015年和2016年的黑暗日子里，AMD的交易价格不到3美元，该公司还背负着垃圾债券。</li><li>如今，AMD的技术得到了积极的评价，资产负债表得到了清理，并且有很大的机会继续抢占数据中心的市场份额。</li><li>AMD刚刚上调了营收和利润率指引，一些分析师预计AMD到2024年每股收益将高达7美元。</li><li>为什么动量投资有效以及如何与AMD一起执行。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业智慧。AMD迅速多元化到新的产品线，并因以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面报道。如果你看一下AMD的长期价格图表，你会发现这是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度利用公司杠杆的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报都流向了债权人而不是股东。现在AMD在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li> <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li> <li>The party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li> <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li> <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li> <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li> <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li> <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和杠杆率过高迫使AMD在下行周期通过垃圾债券（通常是可转换债券）筹集资金。可转换债券价格昂贵，因为它通常会支付利息并稀释股东权益。一般来说，精明的高净值投资者和机构通常更喜欢可转换债券，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街随意攻击它们。可转换债务往往由信用评级低和/或投机性业务前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD和美光科技(MU)等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体公司的新一代管理团队已经想出了如何更好地管理风险和杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决杠杆率过高的问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率向AMD提供资本，从而带来良性循环，这应该会成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD宣布他们将收购芯片制造商Xilinx(XLNX)，从战略角度来看，共识似乎是这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，该交易可能会也可能不会真正完成，中国监管机构需要批准该交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为这会给AMD带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果AMD将部分利润再投资于该业务，该公司到2024年每股收益可能会超过7美元。</li><li>管理层的盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下降就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只预测到2023年，但他们确实认为AMD的盈利每年增长20%以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD股票应该或多或少地随着盈利增长而升值。2022年的盈利为3.50美元，市盈率为36倍，这意味着AMD的12个月目标价约为126美元（上涨20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还会有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD认为，数据中心是一个每年超过300亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD正在稳步提升包括数据中心在内的服务器类别的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年中建立了比英特尔(INTC)更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），并给AMD一个发挥优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给该公司带来风险。此外，收购赛灵思需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国的几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了AMD供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实缓解，这可能会成为该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自从苏姿丰接手以来，AMD在每一个转折点上都胜过了英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率远低于AMD，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面更具优势。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售效率低下的廉价芯片，并导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价不会像你想象的那样帮助你。由于数据中心的持续承载成本，AMD可以仅通过构建技术来赢得市场份额，无论他们的竞争对手采取什么定价策略。</li><li>AMD存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题往往与其永久的失败者地位有关。以英特尔为例，它拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上比他们获得了优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为获胜企业的股票定价时，对成功反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获利并支出（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会持续获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致获胜股票的年回报率超过20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转向时，AMD股东可能希望出售，但AMD是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来12个月内再上涨20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权是正确的，如果市盈率至少保持在28-30倍的范围内，AMD的年复合回报率约为25%，到2024年，AMD的交易价格应该会接近200美元。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但AMD似乎是当今科技领域最值得买入的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189843549","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.\nToday, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.\nAMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.\nWhy momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.\n\nvchal/iStock via Getty Images\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.\nData by YCharts\n\nIn the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.\nAMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.\nThe party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.\nManagement may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.\nAMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.\nAMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.\nIntel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.\nThere are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them. To win in the market, AMD must press this advantage and reinvest in R&D. After all, investing in technology is high-risk, high-reward. Winning tech companies make fortunes for their investors while losing ones tend to be forgotten to history. This is one reason why momentum investing and technology stocks go hand in hand.\n\nAMD Stock Forecast\nAcademic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.\nI wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884192651"}
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