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2021-09-17

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AMD Stock: One Of The Best Secular Growth Plays In The Semiconductor Industry<blockquote>AMD股票：半导体行业最佳长期增长股票之一</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":884866462,"tweetId":"884866462","gmtCreate":1631879915756,"gmtModify":1632805631360,"author":{"id":3577623438086474,"idStr":"3577623438086474","authorId":3577623438086474,"authorIdStr":"3577623438086474","name":"Lenaz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d6947ddc69b05ee238b54beeb22cdd7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like &amp; comment, thank you 😊&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like &amp; comment, thank you 😊&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Pls like & comment, thank you 😊","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884866462","repostId":1101041809,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101041809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631878190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101041809?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 19:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Stock: One Of The Best Secular Growth Plays In The Semiconductor Industry<blockquote>AMD股票：半导体行业最佳长期增长股票之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101041809","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD has transformed its business and financial profile in the past few years, being now one","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD has transformed its business and financial profile in the past few years, being now one of the best growth plays in the semiconductor industry.</li> <li>Its recent growth has been impressive, driven mainly by its product portfolio that has enabled AMD to report record revenues and earnings.</li> <li>It is trading at a lower valuation compared to Nvidia or ASML and my price target is $215 per share by the end-2024.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD在过去几年中改变了其业务和财务状况，现已成为半导体行业增长最好的公司之一。</li><li>其最近的增长令人印象深刻，这主要是由其产品组合推动的，该产品组合使AMD能够报告创纪录的收入和收益。</li><li>与Nvidia或ASML相比，它的估值较低，我的目标价是到2024年底每股215美元。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) is a good play in the secular semiconductor growth theme, due to strong growth, a reasonable valuation compared to other companies with leading positions in their respective segment and strong upside potential over the next three years.<blockquote>先进微设备公司（AMD）是长期半导体增长主题中的一个很好的选择，因为它增长强劲，与其他在各自领域处于领先地位的公司相比估值合理，并且在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力。</blockquote> AMD Overview<blockquote>AMD概述</blockquote> AMD is a&nbsp;semiconductor company&nbsp;offering microprocessors for accelerated processing units (APUs) and for graphic processing units (GPUs). Its main competitors are&nbsp;Intel(INTC) and&nbsp;Nvidia(NVDA), which historically have been the leading companies in its respective segments (CPUs and GPUs). AMD was founded in 1969 and trades on the NASDAQ and has nowadays a market value of about $127 billion.<blockquote>AMD是一家半导体公司，为加速处理单元(APU)和图形处理单元(GPU)提供微处理器。其主要竞争对手是英特尔(INTC)和英伟达(NVDA)，历史上一直是各自领域（CPU和GPU）的领先公司。AMD成立于1969年，在纳斯达克上市，目前市值约为1270亿美元。</blockquote> AMD is a fabless company, which means that it designs its chips but does not have its own production facilities, relying on third-parties for the production phase of which its main supplier is the&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM). AMD has a diversified customer base, with no one representing more than 10% of its annual revenues, and more than 75% of its revenues are generated internationally showing that AMD is a global company.<blockquote>AMD是一家无晶圆厂公司，这意味着它设计自己的芯片，但没有自己的生产设施，生产阶段依赖第三方，其主要供应商是台积电公司（TSM）。AMD拥有多元化的客户群，没有一家公司占其年收入的10%以上，而且超过75%的收入来自国际，这表明AMD是一家全球性公司。</blockquote> Last October, AMD entered intoan agreement to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx(XLNX), in an all-stock deal valued at $35 billion at the time. The strategic rationale of this acquisition is to enhance AMD's position in the industry, especially in the high performance computing segment. This deal is expected to close by the end of 2021 and should lead to cost synergies and stronger innovation and product differentiation, boding well for AMD's growth and profitability in the future.<blockquote>去年10月，AMD签订了intoan协议，收购Xilinx(XLNX)，当时的全股票交易价值350亿美元。此次收购的战略理由是增强AMD在行业中的地位，尤其是在高性能计算领域。这笔交易预计将于2021年底完成，并将带来成本协同效应以及更强的创新和产品差异化，这对AMD未来的增长和盈利能力来说是个好兆头。</blockquote> AMD's Growth<blockquote>AMD的成长</blockquote> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road across the industry.<blockquote>正如我在上一篇关于“ASML：一家适合长期投资者的出色公司”的文章中所分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长整个行业。</blockquote> Indeed, according to&nbsp;MarketWatch, the semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during 2021-28, with the Logic segment being the major growth driver, which bodes quite well for AMD's growth prospects.<blockquote>事实上，根据MarketWatch的数据，半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长，其中逻辑领域是主要的增长动力，这对AMD的增长前景来说是个好兆头。</blockquote> Beyond positive industry tailwinds, AMD also has good growth prospects from improved fundamentals, as the company has improved significantly its competitive position in the industry compared to its history. While Intel was the leading chip company for many years in the PC segment, the rise of new technologies and chip applications in recent years has changed the industry landscape.<blockquote>除了积极的行业推动力之外，AMD还因基本面改善而拥有良好的增长前景，因为与历史相比，该公司在行业中的竞争地位显着提高。虽然英特尔多年来一直是PC领域的领先芯片公司，但近年来新技术和芯片应用的兴起改变了行业格局。</blockquote> AMD is now in a very good position to be a major player in the rise of high performance computing, artificial intelligence and gaming, which are growing markets and where AMD's market share is still relatively low. According to the company, total addressable market for data center, PCs and gaming is about $79 billion, thus AMD has plenty of growth opportunities both from overall industry growth and market share gains from its competitors.<blockquote>AMD现在处于非常有利的地位，可以成为高性能计算、人工智能和游戏崛起的主要参与者，这些都是不断增长的市场，AMD的市场份额仍然相对较低。据该公司称，数据中心、个人电脑和游戏的潜在市场总额约为790亿美元，因此AMD从整体行业增长和竞争对手的市场份额增长中获得了大量增长机会。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dec6c4eb951df3dc84d1e011c77073\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> This is supported by AMD's product portfolio across several applications that is currently in a leadership position regarding performance, which is a critical factor for both individual and corporate customers when deciding to buy PCs for instance, and also power efficiency which is more important for data center customers.<blockquote>这得到了AMD在多个应用程序中的产品组合的支持，这些应用程序目前在性能方面处于领先地位，例如，性能对于个人和企业客户来说都是一个关键因素，而能效对于数据中心客户来说更为重要。</blockquote> During 2020, AMD released multiple products based in advanced technologies of 7 nanometer (nm), including Ryzen for desktops, Radeon for gaming and expanded its EPYC processor family dedicated to data centers. This push from AMD has made it very competitive both with Intel and NVIDIA and has led to outstanding revenue growth in recent quarters, showing that demand in the Logic segment comes mainly from superior technology rather than pricing.<blockquote>2020年期间，AMD发布了多款基于7纳米（nm）先进技术的产品，包括用于台式机的锐龙、用于游戏的镭龙，并扩展了专用于数据中心的EPYC处理器系列。AMD的这一推动使其与英特尔和英伟达都极具竞争力，并在最近几个季度带来了出色的收入增长，这表明逻辑领域的需求主要来自卓越的技术而不是定价。</blockquote> This bodes well for AMD's revenue growth in the near future as Intel has struggled to develop new products that are competitive and its recent product roadmap seems to be more of a catch-up to competitors, rather than returning to a leadership position.<blockquote>这对AMD在不久的将来的收入增长来说是个好兆头，因为英特尔一直在努力开发具有竞争力的新产品，其最近的产品路线图似乎更多的是追赶竞争对手，而不是重返领导地位。</blockquote> For long-term investors, this means that AMD is well positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, even though competition in the industry is fierce and Intel and NVIDIA are also constantly innovating and delivering new products into the market (NVIDIA is expected to enter the CPU market for high performance computing in 2023, for example) so the industry landscape can change quite rapidly and no player should assume that is capable to have an undisputed technological leadership over the long term.<blockquote>对于长期投资者来说，这意味着AMD处于有利地位，可以从半导体行业的长期增长趋势中受益，尽管该行业竞争激烈，英特尔和英伟达也在不断创新并向市场推出新产品（例如，英伟达预计将于2023年进入高性能计算的CPU市场），因此行业格局可能会发生相当快的变化，任何参与者都不应认为自己能够长期拥有无可争议的技术领先地位。</blockquote> Beyond its growth opportunities in data center, PCs and gaming, AMD also has good prospects in the automotive industry, namely in supplying chips for infotainment systems. For instance, the company was able to gain&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) as a customer over Intel in the Model S/X infotainment systems, even though its presence in the automotive industry remains limited.<blockquote>除了在数据中心、PC和游戏领域的增长机会外，AMD在汽车行业也有良好的前景，即为信息娱乐系统提供芯片。例如，该公司能够获得特斯拉(TSLA)在Model S/X信息娱乐系统中成为英特尔的客户，尽管其在汽车行业的影响力仍然有限。</blockquote> To strengthen AMD's position into new industries, such as automotive, AMD agreed almost one year ago to buy Xilinx, a combination that would diversify further its business and also strengthen its position in data centers. This would increase AMD's total addressable market to about $110 billion and is expected to be financially accretive before synergies, making this deal very interesting for AMD. It is not certain that the deal will be approved in all countries (with China possibly being the more difficult to get regulatory approval), but if it gets the 'green light' the market will, most likely, receive well this deal.<blockquote>为了加强AMD在汽车等新行业的地位，AMD大约一年前同意收购Xilinx，这一合并将进一步实现其业务多元化，并加强其在数据中心的地位。这将使AMD的潜在市场总额增加到约1100亿美元，预计在产生协同效应之前将实现财务增值，这使得这笔交易对AMD来说非常有趣。目前还不确定该交易是否会在所有国家获得批准（中国可能更难获得监管部门的批准），但如果获得“绿灯”，市场很可能会对这笔交易表示欢迎。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f725d555c6b55cdc023f034573abc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> AMD Financial Performance<blockquote>AMD财务业绩</blockquote> Regarding its financial performance, AMD has a very good history especially over the past couple of years. Supported by the company's improved product portfolio, AMD's revenues and earnings increased markedly, with the company reporting record results in the last year. Nevertheless, AMD's revenues increased at a CAGR of 22% from 2016 to 2020, showing that AMD was able to increase revenues consistently over the past few years.<blockquote>就其财务业绩而言，AMD拥有非常良好的历史，尤其是在过去几年。在公司改进的产品组合的支持下，AMD的收入和盈利显着增长，该公司去年公布了创纪录的业绩。尽管如此，AMD的收入从2016年到2020年以22%的复合年增长率增长，这表明AMD能够在过去几年中持续增加收入。</blockquote> In 2020, AMD's revenues increased by 45% to $9.8 billion, its gross margin improved to 45% and AMD's net income was close to $2.5 billion. However, AMD recognized a $1.3 billion tax gain related to deferred tax assets, thus its 'clean' net income was close to $1.2 billion, which was nonetheless a big improvement compared to 2019 (net income of $341 million).<blockquote>2020年，AMD的收入增长了45%，达到98亿美元，毛利率提高到45%，AMD的净利润接近25亿美元。然而，AMD确认了与递延税资产相关的13亿美元税收收益，因此其“干净”净利润接近12亿美元，但与2019年（净利润3.41亿美元）相比仍有很大改善。</blockquote> Most of its revenue growth came from higher volumes in the computing and graphics business, which were boosted by several product launches during 2020, but also from the pandemic that led to higher demand for consumer electronics and gaming products, but also from higher revenue in the data center segment.<blockquote>其收入增长大部分来自计算和图形业务的销量增加，这受到2020年多款产品发布的推动，但也来自大流行导致对消费电子和游戏产品的需求增加，以及数据中心领域的收入增加。</blockquote> During the first six months of 2021, AMD maintained a very strong operating momentum, boosted by its product portfolio. In the&nbsp;second quarter of 2021, AMD reported revenues of $3.85 billion (+99% YoY) to a new quarterly record, its gross margin increased to 48%, net income amounted to $710 million (+350% YoY) and free cash flow reached a new record of $888 million in the quarter.<blockquote>在2021年前六个月，AMD在其产品组合的推动下保持了非常强劲的运营势头。2021年第二季度，AMD报告收入为38.5亿美元（同比增长99%），创下季度新纪录，毛利率增至48%，净利润达7.1亿美元（同比增长350%），自由现金流本季度达到8.88亿美元的新纪录。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da23f4eb115916382eacd26ea68c89a4\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> This outstanding performance was driven by all of its segments, but the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment had a stellar performance with revenues up by 160% YoY, showing that AMD's product portfolio is of great quality and is winning market share over its competitors, especially in the data center segment.<blockquote>这一出色的业绩是由其所有细分市场推动的，但企业、嵌入式和半定制细分市场表现出色，收入同比增长160%，表明AMD的产品组合质量上乘，正在赢得超过竞争对手的市场份额，尤其是在数据中心领域。</blockquote> This strong growth in data center is not expected to change soon, given that AMD has clearly a technological leadership over its main competitor Intel, which in my opinion can't be separated from TSMC's strong manufacturing capacities. Given that AMD is a fabless company, it relies heavily on TSMC's production capabilities, which are currently the most advanced in the industry.<blockquote>数据中心的这种强劲增长预计不会很快改变，因为AMD显然在技术上领先于其主要竞争对手英特尔，在我看来，这与台积电强大的制造能力密不可分。鉴于AMD是一家无晶圆厂公司，它严重依赖台积电的生产能力，而台积电的生产能力是目前业内最先进的。</blockquote> On the other hand, Intel has had several setbacks in its technological developments, namely the 7nm process delays and is not expected to be on par with TSMC in the next 2-3 years. Moreover, TSMC is already working on the 3nm process, which AMD can potentially use to improve even further its server's chips and maintain an edge over Intel in the coming years, even though in the coming months its new products are expected to be produced using the 5nm process.<blockquote>另一方面，英特尔在技术发展方面遇到了几次挫折，即7纳米工艺延迟，预计在未来2-3年内不会与台积电持平。此外，台积电已经在研究3纳米工艺，AMD有可能利用该工艺进一步改进其服务器芯片，并在未来几年保持对英特尔的优势，尽管未来几个月其新产品预计将使用5纳米工艺生产。</blockquote> This competitive dynamic has been evident over the past few quarters, with AMD's revenue growth dwarfing Intel in the data center segment, which over the past few years has been the major growth area for Intel. As I've discussed recently on \"Intel Doesn't Offer Much Value\", Intel's recent announcement regarding its product portfolio didn't impress the market and it doesn't appear to be a game changer and therefore AMD is expected to continue to gain market share over the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>这种竞争动态在过去几个季度中表现得很明显，AMD在数据中心领域的收入增长让英特尔相形见绌，而在过去几年中，数据中心一直是英特尔的主要增长领域。正如我最近在“英特尔没有提供太多价值”中所讨论的那样，英特尔最近关于其产品组合的公告没有给市场留下深刻印象，它似乎也不会改变游戏规则，因此AMD预计将在未来2-3年内继续获得市场份额。</blockquote> More recently, there were some&nbsp;rumors about possible price cuts&nbsp;from Intel to be more competitive, but in my opinion, this is the wrong approach because this is a segment where performance and energy efficiency are more important than just pricing, thus AMD's position is not expected to change unless new products from its competitors can beat AMD's EPYC processors on these measures.<blockquote>最近，有一些传言称英特尔可能会降价以提高竞争力，但在我看来，这是错误的做法，因为这是一个性能和能效比定价更重要的细分市场，因此AMD的地位预计不会改变，除非竞争对手的新产品能够在这些指标上击败AMD的EPYC处理器。</blockquote> Going forward, AMD's growth rates should start to decrease somewhat as annual comparisons become tougher, but nevertheless its growth prospects over the medium term are quite good. Indeed, according to&nbsp;analysts' estimates, AMD's revenues are expected to be about $15.6 billion in 2021 (+60% YoY), while the annual growth rate should decrease to between 15-20% in the following four years, to revenues of about $28 billion by 2025. This represents a CAGR of around 16% over the next four years, which is still quite good. However, these expectations don't include the pending merger with Xilinx and if the deal goes ahead, AMD's annual revenue growth over the next five years may be close to 20%.<blockquote>未来，AMD的增长率应该会开始下降，因为年度比较变得更加困难，但中期增长前景仍然相当不错。确实，据分析师的估算，AMD 2021年营收有望约为156亿美元（同比+60%），而未来四年年增长率应该会下降至15-20%之间，至2025年营收约280亿美元。这意味着未来四年的复合年增长率约为16%，这仍然相当不错。然而，这些预期不包括即将与Xilinx的合并，如果交易继续进行，AMD未来五年的年收入增长可能接近20%。</blockquote> Beyond strong revenue growth, AMD's margins are also expected to improve given that its gross margin was 45% in 2020 and should be above consistently above 50% after 2023. This means that earnings growth should be somewhat higher than revenue growth during this period, which makes sense as the company becomes more efficient as costs should increase at a lower rate than revenues, plus its margins can be even higher than currently expected through synergies achieve from the integration of Xilinx.<blockquote>除了强劲的收入增长之外，AMD的利润率预计也将有所改善，因为其2020年的毛利率为45%，并且在2023年之后应该会持续高于50%。这意味着在此期间，盈利增长应该略高于收入增长，这是有道理的，因为公司变得更加高效，因为成本的增长速度应该低于收入，此外，通过整合赛灵思实现的协同效应，其利润率甚至可能高于目前预期。</blockquote> AMD Balance Sheet &amp; Capital Returns<blockquote>AMD资产负债表和资本回报</blockquote> Regarding its balance sheet, AMD has a very good position considering that at the end of June it had $3.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while its total debt was only $313 million. This financial profile is much improved from a few years ago and is not expected to change if the Xilinx deal is approved, as Xilinx also has a strong net cash position and cash flow generation will be improved for the combined companies.<blockquote>关于其资产负债表，考虑到截至6月底AMD拥有37.9亿美元的现金和现金等价物，而其总债务仅为3.13亿美元，AMD的状况非常好。这一财务状况比几年前有了很大改善，如果赛灵思交易获得批准，预计不会改变，因为赛灵思也拥有强劲的净现金状况，合并后公司的现金流生成将得到改善。</blockquote> This means that AMD is nowadays in a good position to deliver strong capital returns to shareholders, while in the past its shareholder remuneration policy has been weaker. AMD does not pay dividends, but has done share buybacks, which I expect to remain the preferred way to return capital to shareholders in the short term.<blockquote>这意味着AMD如今处于有利地位，可以为股东带来强劲的资本回报，而过去其股东薪酬政策则较弱。AMD不支付股息，但进行了股票回购，我预计这仍然是短期内向股东返还资本的首选方式。</blockquote> However, I think that a dividend distribution is possible over the next few years as the company has improved a lot its financial profile in recent years and has plenty of capacity to distribute a sustainable dividend over the long term. This would be a very positive signal from AMD's management about its confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals and could also be positive for its share price because it would attract a more diverse shareholder base.<blockquote>然而，我认为未来几年股息分配是可能的，因为该公司近年来的财务状况有了很大改善，并且有足够的能力长期分配可持续的股息。这将是AMD管理层对公司长期基本面充满信心的一个非常积极的信号，也可能对其股价产生积极影响，因为这将吸引更加多元化的股东基础。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> AMD's recent growth has been impressive and its financial profile is quite robust, a huge transformation from a few years ago. AMD has a strong product portfolio and a good competitive position in the semiconductor industry, being very well positioned to ride the secular growth trend expected in this industry over the next decade.<blockquote>AMD最近的增长令人印象深刻，其财务状况相当强劲，与几年前相比发生了巨大的转变。AMD在半导体行业拥有强大的产品组合和良好的竞争地位，处于有利地位，可以驾驭该行业未来十年预期的长期增长趋势。</blockquote> Despite these strong fundamentals, AMD is&nbsp;tradingat about 36x its earnings expected over the coming 12 months, at a discount to other secular growth companies in the semiconductor industry, such as Nvidia or&nbsp;ASML(ASML) that trade closer to 50x forward earnings, being therefore attractive on a relative basis.<blockquote>尽管基本面强劲，AMD的市盈率约为未来12个月预期收益的36倍，低于半导体行业的其他长期增长公司，例如Nvidia或ASML(ASML)的预期市盈率接近50倍，因此相对而言具有吸引力。</blockquote> Moreover, on an absolute basis my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I'll 2025 estimates to see if AMD is currently undervalued or not and its historical valuation over the past couple of years based on earnings for the next 12 months (blended forward earnings).<blockquote>此外，从绝对的角度来看，我的估值方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在2-4年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，2025年将根据未来12个月的收益（混合远期收益）来估计AMD目前是否被低估及其过去几年的历史估值。</blockquote> Its historical valuation, based on Bloomberg data, has been on average about 42x over the past two years, and taking into account 2025 EPS estimate of $5.06, my price target for end-2024 is $215 per share, which is only more than double AMD's current share price. This shows that AMD has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors that want to be exposed to the fastest growing companies in the semiconductor industry.<blockquote>根据彭博社数据，其历史估值在过去两年中平均约为42倍，考虑到2025年每股收益预期5.06美元，我对2024年底的目标价为每股215美元，仅为AMD的两倍多目前的股价。这表明AMD在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力，目前对于希望接触半导体行业增长最快的公司的长期投资者来说是一个很好的选择。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock: One Of The Best Secular Growth Plays In The Semiconductor Industry<blockquote>AMD股票：半导体行业最佳长期增长股票之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock: One Of The Best Secular Growth Plays In The Semiconductor Industry<blockquote>AMD股票：半导体行业最佳长期增长股票之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-17 19:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD has transformed its business and financial profile in the past few years, being now one of the best growth plays in the semiconductor industry.</li> <li>Its recent growth has been impressive, driven mainly by its product portfolio that has enabled AMD to report record revenues and earnings.</li> <li>It is trading at a lower valuation compared to Nvidia or ASML and my price target is $215 per share by the end-2024.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD在过去几年中改变了其业务和财务状况，现已成为半导体行业增长最好的公司之一。</li><li>其最近的增长令人印象深刻，这主要是由其产品组合推动的，该产品组合使AMD能够报告创纪录的收入和收益。</li><li>与Nvidia或ASML相比，它的估值较低，我的目标价是到2024年底每股215美元。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) is a good play in the secular semiconductor growth theme, due to strong growth, a reasonable valuation compared to other companies with leading positions in their respective segment and strong upside potential over the next three years.<blockquote>先进微设备公司（AMD）是长期半导体增长主题中的一个很好的选择，因为它增长强劲，与其他在各自领域处于领先地位的公司相比估值合理，并且在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力。</blockquote> AMD Overview<blockquote>AMD概述</blockquote> AMD is a&nbsp;semiconductor company&nbsp;offering microprocessors for accelerated processing units (APUs) and for graphic processing units (GPUs). Its main competitors are&nbsp;Intel(INTC) and&nbsp;Nvidia(NVDA), which historically have been the leading companies in its respective segments (CPUs and GPUs). AMD was founded in 1969 and trades on the NASDAQ and has nowadays a market value of about $127 billion.<blockquote>AMD是一家半导体公司，为加速处理单元(APU)和图形处理单元(GPU)提供微处理器。其主要竞争对手是英特尔(INTC)和英伟达(NVDA)，历史上一直是各自领域（CPU和GPU）的领先公司。AMD成立于1969年，在纳斯达克上市，目前市值约为1270亿美元。</blockquote> AMD is a fabless company, which means that it designs its chips but does not have its own production facilities, relying on third-parties for the production phase of which its main supplier is the&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM). AMD has a diversified customer base, with no one representing more than 10% of its annual revenues, and more than 75% of its revenues are generated internationally showing that AMD is a global company.<blockquote>AMD是一家无晶圆厂公司，这意味着它设计自己的芯片，但没有自己的生产设施，生产阶段依赖第三方，其主要供应商是台积电公司（TSM）。AMD拥有多元化的客户群，没有一家公司占其年收入的10%以上，而且超过75%的收入来自国际，这表明AMD是一家全球性公司。</blockquote> Last October, AMD entered intoan agreement to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx(XLNX), in an all-stock deal valued at $35 billion at the time. The strategic rationale of this acquisition is to enhance AMD's position in the industry, especially in the high performance computing segment. This deal is expected to close by the end of 2021 and should lead to cost synergies and stronger innovation and product differentiation, boding well for AMD's growth and profitability in the future.<blockquote>去年10月，AMD签订了intoan协议，收购Xilinx(XLNX)，当时的全股票交易价值350亿美元。此次收购的战略理由是增强AMD在行业中的地位，尤其是在高性能计算领域。这笔交易预计将于2021年底完成，并将带来成本协同效应以及更强的创新和产品差异化，这对AMD未来的增长和盈利能力来说是个好兆头。</blockquote> AMD's Growth<blockquote>AMD的成长</blockquote> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road across the industry.<blockquote>正如我在上一篇关于“ASML：一家适合长期投资者的出色公司”的文章中所分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长整个行业。</blockquote> Indeed, according to&nbsp;MarketWatch, the semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during 2021-28, with the Logic segment being the major growth driver, which bodes quite well for AMD's growth prospects.<blockquote>事实上，根据MarketWatch的数据，半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长，其中逻辑领域是主要的增长动力，这对AMD的增长前景来说是个好兆头。</blockquote> Beyond positive industry tailwinds, AMD also has good growth prospects from improved fundamentals, as the company has improved significantly its competitive position in the industry compared to its history. While Intel was the leading chip company for many years in the PC segment, the rise of new technologies and chip applications in recent years has changed the industry landscape.<blockquote>除了积极的行业推动力之外，AMD还因基本面改善而拥有良好的增长前景，因为与历史相比，该公司在行业中的竞争地位显着提高。虽然英特尔多年来一直是PC领域的领先芯片公司，但近年来新技术和芯片应用的兴起改变了行业格局。</blockquote> AMD is now in a very good position to be a major player in the rise of high performance computing, artificial intelligence and gaming, which are growing markets and where AMD's market share is still relatively low. According to the company, total addressable market for data center, PCs and gaming is about $79 billion, thus AMD has plenty of growth opportunities both from overall industry growth and market share gains from its competitors.<blockquote>AMD现在处于非常有利的地位，可以成为高性能计算、人工智能和游戏崛起的主要参与者，这些都是不断增长的市场，AMD的市场份额仍然相对较低。据该公司称，数据中心、个人电脑和游戏的潜在市场总额约为790亿美元，因此AMD从整体行业增长和竞争对手的市场份额增长中获得了大量增长机会。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dec6c4eb951df3dc84d1e011c77073\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> This is supported by AMD's product portfolio across several applications that is currently in a leadership position regarding performance, which is a critical factor for both individual and corporate customers when deciding to buy PCs for instance, and also power efficiency which is more important for data center customers.<blockquote>这得到了AMD在多个应用程序中的产品组合的支持，这些应用程序目前在性能方面处于领先地位，例如，性能对于个人和企业客户来说都是一个关键因素，而能效对于数据中心客户来说更为重要。</blockquote> During 2020, AMD released multiple products based in advanced technologies of 7 nanometer (nm), including Ryzen for desktops, Radeon for gaming and expanded its EPYC processor family dedicated to data centers. This push from AMD has made it very competitive both with Intel and NVIDIA and has led to outstanding revenue growth in recent quarters, showing that demand in the Logic segment comes mainly from superior technology rather than pricing.<blockquote>2020年期间，AMD发布了多款基于7纳米（nm）先进技术的产品，包括用于台式机的锐龙、用于游戏的镭龙，并扩展了专用于数据中心的EPYC处理器系列。AMD的这一推动使其与英特尔和英伟达都极具竞争力，并在最近几个季度带来了出色的收入增长，这表明逻辑领域的需求主要来自卓越的技术而不是定价。</blockquote> This bodes well for AMD's revenue growth in the near future as Intel has struggled to develop new products that are competitive and its recent product roadmap seems to be more of a catch-up to competitors, rather than returning to a leadership position.<blockquote>这对AMD在不久的将来的收入增长来说是个好兆头，因为英特尔一直在努力开发具有竞争力的新产品，其最近的产品路线图似乎更多的是追赶竞争对手，而不是重返领导地位。</blockquote> For long-term investors, this means that AMD is well positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, even though competition in the industry is fierce and Intel and NVIDIA are also constantly innovating and delivering new products into the market (NVIDIA is expected to enter the CPU market for high performance computing in 2023, for example) so the industry landscape can change quite rapidly and no player should assume that is capable to have an undisputed technological leadership over the long term.<blockquote>对于长期投资者来说，这意味着AMD处于有利地位，可以从半导体行业的长期增长趋势中受益，尽管该行业竞争激烈，英特尔和英伟达也在不断创新并向市场推出新产品（例如，英伟达预计将于2023年进入高性能计算的CPU市场），因此行业格局可能会发生相当快的变化，任何参与者都不应认为自己能够长期拥有无可争议的技术领先地位。</blockquote> Beyond its growth opportunities in data center, PCs and gaming, AMD also has good prospects in the automotive industry, namely in supplying chips for infotainment systems. For instance, the company was able to gain&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) as a customer over Intel in the Model S/X infotainment systems, even though its presence in the automotive industry remains limited.<blockquote>除了在数据中心、PC和游戏领域的增长机会外，AMD在汽车行业也有良好的前景，即为信息娱乐系统提供芯片。例如，该公司能够获得特斯拉(TSLA)在Model S/X信息娱乐系统中成为英特尔的客户，尽管其在汽车行业的影响力仍然有限。</blockquote> To strengthen AMD's position into new industries, such as automotive, AMD agreed almost one year ago to buy Xilinx, a combination that would diversify further its business and also strengthen its position in data centers. This would increase AMD's total addressable market to about $110 billion and is expected to be financially accretive before synergies, making this deal very interesting for AMD. It is not certain that the deal will be approved in all countries (with China possibly being the more difficult to get regulatory approval), but if it gets the 'green light' the market will, most likely, receive well this deal.<blockquote>为了加强AMD在汽车等新行业的地位，AMD大约一年前同意收购Xilinx，这一合并将进一步实现其业务多元化，并加强其在数据中心的地位。这将使AMD的潜在市场总额增加到约1100亿美元，预计在产生协同效应之前将实现财务增值，这使得这笔交易对AMD来说非常有趣。目前还不确定该交易是否会在所有国家获得批准（中国可能更难获得监管部门的批准），但如果获得“绿灯”，市场很可能会对这笔交易表示欢迎。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f725d555c6b55cdc023f034573abc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> AMD Financial Performance<blockquote>AMD财务业绩</blockquote> Regarding its financial performance, AMD has a very good history especially over the past couple of years. Supported by the company's improved product portfolio, AMD's revenues and earnings increased markedly, with the company reporting record results in the last year. Nevertheless, AMD's revenues increased at a CAGR of 22% from 2016 to 2020, showing that AMD was able to increase revenues consistently over the past few years.<blockquote>就其财务业绩而言，AMD拥有非常良好的历史，尤其是在过去几年。在公司改进的产品组合的支持下，AMD的收入和盈利显着增长，该公司去年公布了创纪录的业绩。尽管如此，AMD的收入从2016年到2020年以22%的复合年增长率增长，这表明AMD能够在过去几年中持续增加收入。</blockquote> In 2020, AMD's revenues increased by 45% to $9.8 billion, its gross margin improved to 45% and AMD's net income was close to $2.5 billion. However, AMD recognized a $1.3 billion tax gain related to deferred tax assets, thus its 'clean' net income was close to $1.2 billion, which was nonetheless a big improvement compared to 2019 (net income of $341 million).<blockquote>2020年，AMD的收入增长了45%，达到98亿美元，毛利率提高到45%，AMD的净利润接近25亿美元。然而，AMD确认了与递延税资产相关的13亿美元税收收益，因此其“干净”净利润接近12亿美元，但与2019年（净利润3.41亿美元）相比仍有很大改善。</blockquote> Most of its revenue growth came from higher volumes in the computing and graphics business, which were boosted by several product launches during 2020, but also from the pandemic that led to higher demand for consumer electronics and gaming products, but also from higher revenue in the data center segment.<blockquote>其收入增长大部分来自计算和图形业务的销量增加，这受到2020年多款产品发布的推动，但也来自大流行导致对消费电子和游戏产品的需求增加，以及数据中心领域的收入增加。</blockquote> During the first six months of 2021, AMD maintained a very strong operating momentum, boosted by its product portfolio. In the&nbsp;second quarter of 2021, AMD reported revenues of $3.85 billion (+99% YoY) to a new quarterly record, its gross margin increased to 48%, net income amounted to $710 million (+350% YoY) and free cash flow reached a new record of $888 million in the quarter.<blockquote>在2021年前六个月，AMD在其产品组合的推动下保持了非常强劲的运营势头。2021年第二季度，AMD报告收入为38.5亿美元（同比增长99%），创下季度新纪录，毛利率增至48%，净利润达7.1亿美元（同比增长350%），自由现金流本季度达到8.88亿美元的新纪录。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da23f4eb115916382eacd26ea68c89a4\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: AMD.<blockquote>来源：AMD。</blockquote> This outstanding performance was driven by all of its segments, but the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment had a stellar performance with revenues up by 160% YoY, showing that AMD's product portfolio is of great quality and is winning market share over its competitors, especially in the data center segment.<blockquote>这一出色的业绩是由其所有细分市场推动的，但企业、嵌入式和半定制细分市场表现出色，收入同比增长160%，表明AMD的产品组合质量上乘，正在赢得超过竞争对手的市场份额，尤其是在数据中心领域。</blockquote> This strong growth in data center is not expected to change soon, given that AMD has clearly a technological leadership over its main competitor Intel, which in my opinion can't be separated from TSMC's strong manufacturing capacities. Given that AMD is a fabless company, it relies heavily on TSMC's production capabilities, which are currently the most advanced in the industry.<blockquote>数据中心的这种强劲增长预计不会很快改变，因为AMD显然在技术上领先于其主要竞争对手英特尔，在我看来，这与台积电强大的制造能力密不可分。鉴于AMD是一家无晶圆厂公司，它严重依赖台积电的生产能力，而台积电的生产能力是目前业内最先进的。</blockquote> On the other hand, Intel has had several setbacks in its technological developments, namely the 7nm process delays and is not expected to be on par with TSMC in the next 2-3 years. Moreover, TSMC is already working on the 3nm process, which AMD can potentially use to improve even further its server's chips and maintain an edge over Intel in the coming years, even though in the coming months its new products are expected to be produced using the 5nm process.<blockquote>另一方面，英特尔在技术发展方面遇到了几次挫折，即7纳米工艺延迟，预计在未来2-3年内不会与台积电持平。此外，台积电已经在研究3纳米工艺，AMD有可能利用该工艺进一步改进其服务器芯片，并在未来几年保持对英特尔的优势，尽管未来几个月其新产品预计将使用5纳米工艺生产。</blockquote> This competitive dynamic has been evident over the past few quarters, with AMD's revenue growth dwarfing Intel in the data center segment, which over the past few years has been the major growth area for Intel. As I've discussed recently on \"Intel Doesn't Offer Much Value\", Intel's recent announcement regarding its product portfolio didn't impress the market and it doesn't appear to be a game changer and therefore AMD is expected to continue to gain market share over the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>这种竞争动态在过去几个季度中表现得很明显，AMD在数据中心领域的收入增长让英特尔相形见绌，而在过去几年中，数据中心一直是英特尔的主要增长领域。正如我最近在“英特尔没有提供太多价值”中所讨论的那样，英特尔最近关于其产品组合的公告没有给市场留下深刻印象，它似乎也不会改变游戏规则，因此AMD预计将在未来2-3年内继续获得市场份额。</blockquote> More recently, there were some&nbsp;rumors about possible price cuts&nbsp;from Intel to be more competitive, but in my opinion, this is the wrong approach because this is a segment where performance and energy efficiency are more important than just pricing, thus AMD's position is not expected to change unless new products from its competitors can beat AMD's EPYC processors on these measures.<blockquote>最近，有一些传言称英特尔可能会降价以提高竞争力，但在我看来，这是错误的做法，因为这是一个性能和能效比定价更重要的细分市场，因此AMD的地位预计不会改变，除非竞争对手的新产品能够在这些指标上击败AMD的EPYC处理器。</blockquote> Going forward, AMD's growth rates should start to decrease somewhat as annual comparisons become tougher, but nevertheless its growth prospects over the medium term are quite good. Indeed, according to&nbsp;analysts' estimates, AMD's revenues are expected to be about $15.6 billion in 2021 (+60% YoY), while the annual growth rate should decrease to between 15-20% in the following four years, to revenues of about $28 billion by 2025. This represents a CAGR of around 16% over the next four years, which is still quite good. However, these expectations don't include the pending merger with Xilinx and if the deal goes ahead, AMD's annual revenue growth over the next five years may be close to 20%.<blockquote>未来，AMD的增长率应该会开始下降，因为年度比较变得更加困难，但中期增长前景仍然相当不错。确实，据分析师的估算，AMD 2021年营收有望约为156亿美元（同比+60%），而未来四年年增长率应该会下降至15-20%之间，至2025年营收约280亿美元。这意味着未来四年的复合年增长率约为16%，这仍然相当不错。然而，这些预期不包括即将与Xilinx的合并，如果交易继续进行，AMD未来五年的年收入增长可能接近20%。</blockquote> Beyond strong revenue growth, AMD's margins are also expected to improve given that its gross margin was 45% in 2020 and should be above consistently above 50% after 2023. This means that earnings growth should be somewhat higher than revenue growth during this period, which makes sense as the company becomes more efficient as costs should increase at a lower rate than revenues, plus its margins can be even higher than currently expected through synergies achieve from the integration of Xilinx.<blockquote>除了强劲的收入增长之外，AMD的利润率预计也将有所改善，因为其2020年的毛利率为45%，并且在2023年之后应该会持续高于50%。这意味着在此期间，盈利增长应该略高于收入增长，这是有道理的，因为公司变得更加高效，因为成本的增长速度应该低于收入，此外，通过整合赛灵思实现的协同效应，其利润率甚至可能高于目前预期。</blockquote> AMD Balance Sheet &amp; Capital Returns<blockquote>AMD资产负债表和资本回报</blockquote> Regarding its balance sheet, AMD has a very good position considering that at the end of June it had $3.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while its total debt was only $313 million. This financial profile is much improved from a few years ago and is not expected to change if the Xilinx deal is approved, as Xilinx also has a strong net cash position and cash flow generation will be improved for the combined companies.<blockquote>关于其资产负债表，考虑到截至6月底AMD拥有37.9亿美元的现金和现金等价物，而其总债务仅为3.13亿美元，AMD的状况非常好。这一财务状况比几年前有了很大改善，如果赛灵思交易获得批准，预计不会改变，因为赛灵思也拥有强劲的净现金状况，合并后公司的现金流生成将得到改善。</blockquote> This means that AMD is nowadays in a good position to deliver strong capital returns to shareholders, while in the past its shareholder remuneration policy has been weaker. AMD does not pay dividends, but has done share buybacks, which I expect to remain the preferred way to return capital to shareholders in the short term.<blockquote>这意味着AMD如今处于有利地位，可以为股东带来强劲的资本回报，而过去其股东薪酬政策则较弱。AMD不支付股息，但进行了股票回购，我预计这仍然是短期内向股东返还资本的首选方式。</blockquote> However, I think that a dividend distribution is possible over the next few years as the company has improved a lot its financial profile in recent years and has plenty of capacity to distribute a sustainable dividend over the long term. This would be a very positive signal from AMD's management about its confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals and could also be positive for its share price because it would attract a more diverse shareholder base.<blockquote>然而，我认为未来几年股息分配是可能的，因为该公司近年来的财务状况有了很大改善，并且有足够的能力长期分配可持续的股息。这将是AMD管理层对公司长期基本面充满信心的一个非常积极的信号，也可能对其股价产生积极影响，因为这将吸引更加多元化的股东基础。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> AMD's recent growth has been impressive and its financial profile is quite robust, a huge transformation from a few years ago. AMD has a strong product portfolio and a good competitive position in the semiconductor industry, being very well positioned to ride the secular growth trend expected in this industry over the next decade.<blockquote>AMD最近的增长令人印象深刻，其财务状况相当强劲，与几年前相比发生了巨大的转变。AMD在半导体行业拥有强大的产品组合和良好的竞争地位，处于有利地位，可以驾驭该行业未来十年预期的长期增长趋势。</blockquote> Despite these strong fundamentals, AMD is&nbsp;tradingat about 36x its earnings expected over the coming 12 months, at a discount to other secular growth companies in the semiconductor industry, such as Nvidia or&nbsp;ASML(ASML) that trade closer to 50x forward earnings, being therefore attractive on a relative basis.<blockquote>尽管基本面强劲，AMD的市盈率约为未来12个月预期收益的36倍，低于半导体行业的其他长期增长公司，例如Nvidia或ASML(ASML)的预期市盈率接近50倍，因此相对而言具有吸引力。</blockquote> Moreover, on an absolute basis my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I'll 2025 estimates to see if AMD is currently undervalued or not and its historical valuation over the past couple of years based on earnings for the next 12 months (blended forward earnings).<blockquote>此外，从绝对的角度来看，我的估值方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在2-4年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，2025年将根据未来12个月的收益（混合远期收益）来估计AMD目前是否被低估及其过去几年的历史估值。</blockquote> Its historical valuation, based on Bloomberg data, has been on average about 42x over the past two years, and taking into account 2025 EPS estimate of $5.06, my price target for end-2024 is $215 per share, which is only more than double AMD's current share price. This shows that AMD has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors that want to be exposed to the fastest growing companies in the semiconductor industry.<blockquote>根据彭博社数据，其历史估值在过去两年中平均约为42倍，考虑到2025年每股收益预期5.06美元，我对2024年底的目标价为每股215美元，仅为AMD的两倍多目前的股价。这表明AMD在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力，目前对于希望接触半导体行业增长最快的公司的长期投资者来说是一个很好的选择。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455588-amd-one-of-the-best-secular-growth-plays-in-the-semiconductor-industry\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455588-amd-one-of-the-best-secular-growth-plays-in-the-semiconductor-industry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101041809","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD has transformed its business and financial profile in the past few years, being now one of the best growth plays in the semiconductor industry.\nIts recent growth has been impressive, driven mainly by its product portfolio that has enabled AMD to report record revenues and earnings.\nIt is trading at a lower valuation compared to Nvidia or ASML and my price target is $215 per share by the end-2024.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) is a good play in the secular semiconductor growth theme, due to strong growth, a reasonable valuation compared to other companies with leading positions in their respective segment and strong upside potential over the next three years.\nAMD Overview\nAMD is a semiconductor company offering microprocessors for accelerated processing units (APUs) and for graphic processing units (GPUs). Its main competitors are Intel(INTC) and Nvidia(NVDA), which historically have been the leading companies in its respective segments (CPUs and GPUs). AMD was founded in 1969 and trades on the NASDAQ and has nowadays a market value of about $127 billion.\nAMD is a fabless company, which means that it designs its chips but does not have its own production facilities, relying on third-parties for the production phase of which its main supplier is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM). AMD has a diversified customer base, with no one representing more than 10% of its annual revenues, and more than 75% of its revenues are generated internationally showing that AMD is a global company.\nLast October, AMD entered intoan agreement to acquire Xilinx(XLNX), in an all-stock deal valued at $35 billion at the time. The strategic rationale of this acquisition is to enhance AMD's position in the industry, especially in the high performance computing segment. This deal is expected to close by the end of 2021 and should lead to cost synergies and stronger innovation and product differentiation, boding well for AMD's growth and profitability in the future.\nAMD's Growth\nAs I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road across the industry.\nIndeed, according to MarketWatch, the semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during 2021-28, with the Logic segment being the major growth driver, which bodes quite well for AMD's growth prospects.\nBeyond positive industry tailwinds, AMD also has good growth prospects from improved fundamentals, as the company has improved significantly its competitive position in the industry compared to its history. While Intel was the leading chip company for many years in the PC segment, the rise of new technologies and chip applications in recent years has changed the industry landscape.\nAMD is now in a very good position to be a major player in the rise of high performance computing, artificial intelligence and gaming, which are growing markets and where AMD's market share is still relatively low. According to the company, total addressable market for data center, PCs and gaming is about $79 billion, thus AMD has plenty of growth opportunities both from overall industry growth and market share gains from its competitors.\nSource: AMD.\nThis is supported by AMD's product portfolio across several applications that is currently in a leadership position regarding performance, which is a critical factor for both individual and corporate customers when deciding to buy PCs for instance, and also power efficiency which is more important for data center customers.\nDuring 2020, AMD released multiple products based in advanced technologies of 7 nanometer (nm), including Ryzen for desktops, Radeon for gaming and expanded its EPYC processor family dedicated to data centers. This push from AMD has made it very competitive both with Intel and NVIDIA and has led to outstanding revenue growth in recent quarters, showing that demand in the Logic segment comes mainly from superior technology rather than pricing.\nThis bodes well for AMD's revenue growth in the near future as Intel has struggled to develop new products that are competitive and its recent product roadmap seems to be more of a catch-up to competitors, rather than returning to a leadership position.\nFor long-term investors, this means that AMD is well positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, even though competition in the industry is fierce and Intel and NVIDIA are also constantly innovating and delivering new products into the market (NVIDIA is expected to enter the CPU market for high performance computing in 2023, for example) so the industry landscape can change quite rapidly and no player should assume that is capable to have an undisputed technological leadership over the long term.\nBeyond its growth opportunities in data center, PCs and gaming, AMD also has good prospects in the automotive industry, namely in supplying chips for infotainment systems. For instance, the company was able to gain Tesla(TSLA) as a customer over Intel in the Model S/X infotainment systems, even though its presence in the automotive industry remains limited.\nTo strengthen AMD's position into new industries, such as automotive, AMD agreed almost one year ago to buy Xilinx, a combination that would diversify further its business and also strengthen its position in data centers. This would increase AMD's total addressable market to about $110 billion and is expected to be financially accretive before synergies, making this deal very interesting for AMD. It is not certain that the deal will be approved in all countries (with China possibly being the more difficult to get regulatory approval), but if it gets the 'green light' the market will, most likely, receive well this deal.\nSource: AMD.\nAMD Financial Performance\nRegarding its financial performance, AMD has a very good history especially over the past couple of years. Supported by the company's improved product portfolio, AMD's revenues and earnings increased markedly, with the company reporting record results in the last year. Nevertheless, AMD's revenues increased at a CAGR of 22% from 2016 to 2020, showing that AMD was able to increase revenues consistently over the past few years.\nIn 2020, AMD's revenues increased by 45% to $9.8 billion, its gross margin improved to 45% and AMD's net income was close to $2.5 billion. However, AMD recognized a $1.3 billion tax gain related to deferred tax assets, thus its 'clean' net income was close to $1.2 billion, which was nonetheless a big improvement compared to 2019 (net income of $341 million).\nMost of its revenue growth came from higher volumes in the computing and graphics business, which were boosted by several product launches during 2020, but also from the pandemic that led to higher demand for consumer electronics and gaming products, but also from higher revenue in the data center segment.\nDuring the first six months of 2021, AMD maintained a very strong operating momentum, boosted by its product portfolio. In the second quarter of 2021, AMD reported revenues of $3.85 billion (+99% YoY) to a new quarterly record, its gross margin increased to 48%, net income amounted to $710 million (+350% YoY) and free cash flow reached a new record of $888 million in the quarter.\nSource: AMD.\nThis outstanding performance was driven by all of its segments, but the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment had a stellar performance with revenues up by 160% YoY, showing that AMD's product portfolio is of great quality and is winning market share over its competitors, especially in the data center segment.\nThis strong growth in data center is not expected to change soon, given that AMD has clearly a technological leadership over its main competitor Intel, which in my opinion can't be separated from TSMC's strong manufacturing capacities. Given that AMD is a fabless company, it relies heavily on TSMC's production capabilities, which are currently the most advanced in the industry.\nOn the other hand, Intel has had several setbacks in its technological developments, namely the 7nm process delays and is not expected to be on par with TSMC in the next 2-3 years. Moreover, TSMC is already working on the 3nm process, which AMD can potentially use to improve even further its server's chips and maintain an edge over Intel in the coming years, even though in the coming months its new products are expected to be produced using the 5nm process.\nThis competitive dynamic has been evident over the past few quarters, with AMD's revenue growth dwarfing Intel in the data center segment, which over the past few years has been the major growth area for Intel. As I've discussed recently on \"Intel Doesn't Offer Much Value\", Intel's recent announcement regarding its product portfolio didn't impress the market and it doesn't appear to be a game changer and therefore AMD is expected to continue to gain market share over the next 2-3 years.\nMore recently, there were some rumors about possible price cuts from Intel to be more competitive, but in my opinion, this is the wrong approach because this is a segment where performance and energy efficiency are more important than just pricing, thus AMD's position is not expected to change unless new products from its competitors can beat AMD's EPYC processors on these measures.\nGoing forward, AMD's growth rates should start to decrease somewhat as annual comparisons become tougher, but nevertheless its growth prospects over the medium term are quite good. Indeed, according to analysts' estimates, AMD's revenues are expected to be about $15.6 billion in 2021 (+60% YoY), while the annual growth rate should decrease to between 15-20% in the following four years, to revenues of about $28 billion by 2025. This represents a CAGR of around 16% over the next four years, which is still quite good. However, these expectations don't include the pending merger with Xilinx and if the deal goes ahead, AMD's annual revenue growth over the next five years may be close to 20%.\nBeyond strong revenue growth, AMD's margins are also expected to improve given that its gross margin was 45% in 2020 and should be above consistently above 50% after 2023. This means that earnings growth should be somewhat higher than revenue growth during this period, which makes sense as the company becomes more efficient as costs should increase at a lower rate than revenues, plus its margins can be even higher than currently expected through synergies achieve from the integration of Xilinx.\nAMD Balance Sheet & Capital Returns\nRegarding its balance sheet, AMD has a very good position considering that at the end of June it had $3.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while its total debt was only $313 million. This financial profile is much improved from a few years ago and is not expected to change if the Xilinx deal is approved, as Xilinx also has a strong net cash position and cash flow generation will be improved for the combined companies.\nThis means that AMD is nowadays in a good position to deliver strong capital returns to shareholders, while in the past its shareholder remuneration policy has been weaker. AMD does not pay dividends, but has done share buybacks, which I expect to remain the preferred way to return capital to shareholders in the short term.\nHowever, I think that a dividend distribution is possible over the next few years as the company has improved a lot its financial profile in recent years and has plenty of capacity to distribute a sustainable dividend over the long term. This would be a very positive signal from AMD's management about its confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals and could also be positive for its share price because it would attract a more diverse shareholder base.\nBottom Line\nAMD's recent growth has been impressive and its financial profile is quite robust, a huge transformation from a few years ago. AMD has a strong product portfolio and a good competitive position in the semiconductor industry, being very well positioned to ride the secular growth trend expected in this industry over the next decade.\nDespite these strong fundamentals, AMD is tradingat about 36x its earnings expected over the coming 12 months, at a discount to other secular growth companies in the semiconductor industry, such as Nvidia or ASML(ASML) that trade closer to 50x forward earnings, being therefore attractive on a relative basis.\nMoreover, on an absolute basis my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I'll 2025 estimates to see if AMD is currently undervalued or not and its historical valuation over the past couple of years based on earnings for the next 12 months (blended forward earnings).\nIts historical valuation, based on Bloomberg data, has been on average about 42x over the past two years, and taking into account 2025 EPS estimate of $5.06, my price target for end-2024 is $215 per share, which is only more than double AMD's current share price. This shows that AMD has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors that want to be exposed to the fastest growing companies in the semiconductor industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884866462"}