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2021-09-13

Need go be prepared for this

U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临秋季坎坷的风险</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":888681673,"tweetId":"888681673","gmtCreate":1631493437292,"gmtModify":1631887249710,"author":{"id":3576020103442242,"idStr":"3576020103442242","authorId":3576020103442242,"authorIdStr":"3576020103442242","name":"hoa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fde20263e39879236fafd316b76c363","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":37,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Need go be prepared for this</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Need go be prepared for this</body></html>","text":"Need go be prepared for this","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888681673","repostId":1190225456,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190225456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631492039,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190225456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临秋季坎坷的风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190225456","media":"WSJ","summary":"After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are ","content":"After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.<blockquote>在美国股市今年创纪录的牛市之后，许多华尔街分析师开始警告称，投资者在未来几周和几个月内可能会经历一段坎坷的旅程。</blockquote> Analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&amp;P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.<blockquote>摩根士丹利、花旗集团、德意志银行和美国银行等公司的分析师本月发布报告，对美国股市当前的风险发出警告。截至周四，标普500今年已创下 54 项纪录，为 1995 年以来同期最高纪录，几位分析师表示，他们认为回调或至少回报变平的可能性越来越大。</blockquote> Behind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including&nbsp;euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.<blockquote>研究人员表示，这种谨慎的前景背后是多种因素的结合，包括乐观的投资情绪、扩大的估值以及通胀和供应链中断将拖累企业利润率的预期。</blockquote> In a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”<blockquote>美国银行证券（BofA Securities）的策略师在周三的一份报告中表示，他们看不到什么值得兴奋的，并问道：“还剩下什么好消息？”他们补充说：“很多乐观情绪已经被消化了。”</blockquote> In the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.<blockquote>在这份报告中，由美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 领导的美国银行团队将标普500价格的年终目标价上调至 4250 点，较基准指数周五收盘价的 4458.58 点下降了 4.7%。对于2022年，美国银行设定了年底4600的目标价。</blockquote> The analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy&nbsp;from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from&nbsp;meme stocks&nbsp;to&nbsp;Covid-19 beneficiaries.<blockquote>分析师对美国股市的谨慎前景与过去一年大部分时间主导投资者前景的所谓 TINA（或 “别无选择 ”）座右铭形成了鲜明对比。由于债券等其他资产的收益率一直很低，许多投资者证明了他们持续看涨股票的合理性。美联储的宽松货币政策也为今年的股市提供了持续提振，以及大量公司的巨额投资回报的诱惑，从模因股票到 Covid-19 受益者。</blockquote> In their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.<blockquote>然而，一些策略师在 9 月份的报告中表示，他们正在关注市场其他部分的未来涨幅。摩根士丹利策略师在上周的一份报告中写道，他们将美国股市的评级下调至 “跑输大盘”，称他们更喜欢欧洲和日本的股票，并认为持有现金越来越有吸引力。</blockquote> “We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”<blockquote>“包括 Andrew Sheets 在内的摩根士丹利团队在报告中写道：”我们预计，在转移跑赢大盘现金时，会出现可以理解的白眼现象，并补充说，相对于现金而言，部分国际股票和其他资产具有吸引力。报告继续说道：“摩根士丹利策略师预测，未来 12 个月，现金将跑赢美国股票、政府债券和信贷。”</blockquote> Parts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的部分预测正在纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life Investments）实施，该公司是纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life Insurance Co.</blockquote> In its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.<blockquote>在其投资组合中，该公司目前在国际发达股票中拥有跑赢大盘头寸。纽约人寿投资公司 (New York Life Investments) 经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温 (Lauren Goodwin) 表示，欧洲和加拿大的经济上升空间更大，该公司已增加了投资这两个地区。</blockquote> Domestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.<blockquote>在国内，古德温女士表示，她相信部分市场的最佳日子可能已经过去。尽管如此，她表示投资者现在完全防御还为时过早。她表示，该投资公司预计一些价值型和小盘股公司将继续表现良好。</blockquote> “The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.<blockquote>“古德温女士说：”我们对投资组合的定位是，我们坚持重新开放交易，但相信.....投资者将不得不投入更多的时间和精力来寻找优质公司，这些公司将继续实现盈利扩张。</blockquote> Already there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&amp;P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.<blockquote>在最近的交易日中，美国股市已经出现了疲软的迹象。三大指数上周均下跌，目前本月均下跌。如果这一趋势持续下去，将标志着标普500自一月份以来首次出现月度亏损。总体而言，9月份往往是美国股市历史上的疲软时期。尤其是今年，投资者正进入一个充满不确定性的动荡时期。</blockquote> In the week ahead,&nbsp;investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.<blockquote>未来一周，投资者将分析劳工部将于周二公布的消费者价格指数带来的最新通胀数据。他们还将留意央行行长对美联储何时撤回资产购买刺激计划的看法的任何新评论。一些投资者和分析师将货币政策收紧视为股市的潜在风险。</blockquote> In a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&amp;P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.<blockquote>花旗研究公司的分析师在上周的一份报告中表示，他们看到了市场的另一个风险：担心当前的看涨定位可能会加剧市场抛售。包括 Chris Montagu 在内的一个分析师团队写道，标普500的这种多头头寸与空头头寸的比例为 10 比 1，并补充说，如果基准指数跌破 4435，距离周五收盘价不到 1%，大约一半的多头头寸将处于亏损状态。</blockquote> “That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.<blockquote>“花旗的报告说：”这意味着小幅调整可能会因强制多头平仓而被放大，从而进一步推低市场。</blockquote> This month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.<blockquote>在当前的牛市中，分析师本月的警钟并不是第一次响起。整个2021年，华尔街广泛的市场观察人士都对市场过度迹象表示担忧，投资者定期为回调做好准备。</blockquote> Still, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 fell&nbsp;for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.<blockquote>尽管如此，美国股市在很大程度上仍在上涨，即使是在周期性下跌的情况下。周五，标普500连续第五个交易日下跌，这是自 2 月份以来最长的连跌，本周下跌 1.7%。</blockquote> The last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.<blockquote>基准指数上一次出现如此幅度的周跌幅是在截至 6 月 18 日当周，当时该指数下跌了 1.9%。随后，该指数在接下来的三周内继续上涨 4.9%。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临秋季坎坷的风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临秋季坎坷的风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nWSJ2021-09-13 08:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.<blockquote>在美国股市今年创纪录的牛市之后，许多华尔街分析师开始警告称，投资者在未来几周和几个月内可能会经历一段坎坷的旅程。</blockquote> Analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&amp;P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.<blockquote>摩根士丹利、花旗集团、德意志银行和美国银行等公司的分析师本月发布报告，对美国股市当前的风险发出警告。截至周四，标普500今年已创下 54 项纪录，为 1995 年以来同期最高纪录，几位分析师表示，他们认为回调或至少回报变平的可能性越来越大。</blockquote> Behind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including&nbsp;euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.<blockquote>研究人员表示，这种谨慎的前景背后是多种因素的结合，包括乐观的投资情绪、扩大的估值以及通胀和供应链中断将拖累企业利润率的预期。</blockquote> In a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”<blockquote>美国银行证券（BofA Securities）的策略师在周三的一份报告中表示，他们看不到什么值得兴奋的，并问道：“还剩下什么好消息？”他们补充说：“很多乐观情绪已经被消化了。”</blockquote> In the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.<blockquote>在这份报告中，由美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 领导的美国银行团队将标普500价格的年终目标价上调至 4250 点，较基准指数周五收盘价的 4458.58 点下降了 4.7%。对于2022年，美国银行设定了年底4600的目标价。</blockquote> The analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy&nbsp;from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from&nbsp;meme stocks&nbsp;to&nbsp;Covid-19 beneficiaries.<blockquote>分析师对美国股市的谨慎前景与过去一年大部分时间主导投资者前景的所谓 TINA（或 “别无选择 ”）座右铭形成了鲜明对比。由于债券等其他资产的收益率一直很低，许多投资者证明了他们持续看涨股票的合理性。美联储的宽松货币政策也为今年的股市提供了持续提振，以及大量公司的巨额投资回报的诱惑，从模因股票到 Covid-19 受益者。</blockquote> In their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.<blockquote>然而，一些策略师在 9 月份的报告中表示，他们正在关注市场其他部分的未来涨幅。摩根士丹利策略师在上周的一份报告中写道，他们将美国股市的评级下调至 “跑输大盘”，称他们更喜欢欧洲和日本的股票，并认为持有现金越来越有吸引力。</blockquote> “We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”<blockquote>“包括 Andrew Sheets 在内的摩根士丹利团队在报告中写道：”我们预计，在转移跑赢大盘现金时，会出现可以理解的白眼现象，并补充说，相对于现金而言，部分国际股票和其他资产具有吸引力。报告继续说道：“摩根士丹利策略师预测，未来 12 个月，现金将跑赢美国股票、政府债券和信贷。”</blockquote> Parts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的部分预测正在纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life Investments）实施，该公司是纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life Insurance Co.</blockquote> In its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.<blockquote>在其投资组合中，该公司目前在国际发达股票中拥有跑赢大盘头寸。纽约人寿投资公司 (New York Life Investments) 经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温 (Lauren Goodwin) 表示，欧洲和加拿大的经济上升空间更大，该公司已增加了投资这两个地区。</blockquote> Domestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.<blockquote>在国内，古德温女士表示，她相信部分市场的最佳日子可能已经过去。尽管如此，她表示投资者现在完全防御还为时过早。她表示，该投资公司预计一些价值型和小盘股公司将继续表现良好。</blockquote> “The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.<blockquote>“古德温女士说：”我们对投资组合的定位是，我们坚持重新开放交易，但相信.....投资者将不得不投入更多的时间和精力来寻找优质公司，这些公司将继续实现盈利扩张。</blockquote> Already there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&amp;P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.<blockquote>在最近的交易日中，美国股市已经出现了疲软的迹象。三大指数上周均下跌，目前本月均下跌。如果这一趋势持续下去，将标志着标普500自一月份以来首次出现月度亏损。总体而言，9月份往往是美国股市历史上的疲软时期。尤其是今年，投资者正进入一个充满不确定性的动荡时期。</blockquote> In the week ahead,&nbsp;investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.<blockquote>未来一周，投资者将分析劳工部将于周二公布的消费者价格指数带来的最新通胀数据。他们还将留意央行行长对美联储何时撤回资产购买刺激计划的看法的任何新评论。一些投资者和分析师将货币政策收紧视为股市的潜在风险。</blockquote> In a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&amp;P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.<blockquote>花旗研究公司的分析师在上周的一份报告中表示，他们看到了市场的另一个风险：担心当前的看涨定位可能会加剧市场抛售。包括 Chris Montagu 在内的一个分析师团队写道，标普500的这种多头头寸与空头头寸的比例为 10 比 1，并补充说，如果基准指数跌破 4435，距离周五收盘价不到 1%，大约一半的多头头寸将处于亏损状态。</blockquote> “That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.<blockquote>“花旗的报告说：”这意味着小幅调整可能会因强制多头平仓而被放大，从而进一步推低市场。</blockquote> This month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.<blockquote>在当前的牛市中，分析师本月的警钟并不是第一次响起。整个2021年，华尔街广泛的市场观察人士都对市场过度迹象表示担忧，投资者定期为回调做好准备。</blockquote> Still, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 fell&nbsp;for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.<blockquote>尽管如此，美国股市在很大程度上仍在上涨，即使是在周期性下跌的情况下。周五，标普500连续第五个交易日下跌，这是自 2 月份以来最长的连跌，本周下跌 1.7%。</blockquote> The last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.<blockquote>基准指数上一次出现如此幅度的周跌幅是在截至 6 月 18 日当周，当时该指数下跌了 1.9%。随后，该指数在接下来的三周内继续上涨 4.9%。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-faces-potentially-bumpy-autumn-wall-street-analysts-warn-11631439002?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">WSJ</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-faces-potentially-bumpy-autumn-wall-street-analysts-warn-11631439002?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190225456","content_text":"After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.\nAnalysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.\nBehind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.\nIn a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”\nIn the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.\nThe analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from meme stocks to Covid-19 beneficiaries.\nIn their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.\n“We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”\nParts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.\nIn its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.\nDomestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.\n“The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.\nAlready there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.\nIn the week ahead, investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.\nIn a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.\n“That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.\nThis month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.\nStill, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday the S&P 500 fell for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.\nThe last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2651,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/888681673"}