masran
2021-09-08
good thought
5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>
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But the investing veteran is more than j","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-trick, or one-stock, pony.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>听听Gary Black对特斯拉的看法。但这位投资老手不仅仅是一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-诡计，或一只股票，小马。</blockquote></p><p> He has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>他为成长型投资者提供了其他选择，以及一只新的主动管理型ETF：未来基金（股票代码：FFND），旨在利用他认为正在改变世界的10个大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.</p><p><blockquote>该基金才成立几周。布莱克从1992年开始在伯恩斯坦担任研究分析师，从事投资行业已有大约30年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> After Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>在伯恩斯坦之后，布莱克转向买方，曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理公司、骏利和全球保险集团等。在Aegon之后短暂休息后，Black进入了主动管理型ETF的领域。</blockquote></p><p> He sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.</p><p><blockquote>他与《巴伦周刊》坐下来谈论他的新基金、他的投资方法以及他投资的一些股票。以下是对话的编辑版本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Barron’s: </b>We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?</p><p><blockquote><b>巴伦周刊：</b>我们可能要从特斯拉（TSLA）开始。您如何评估特斯拉股票？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Black:</b> I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑色：</b>我认为全球[汽车销量]将在大约五年内达到什么水平，以及电动汽车的采用率——到2025年将达到25%。这就是特斯拉最大的投资争议：随着竞争对手进入市场，它能否保持大约25%的电动汽车份额？如果可以的话，到2025年我将获得大约32美元左右的收入。即使我给它打50倍，考虑到预计55%的平均年盈利增长率，这个数字也相当低。我得到1600美元的价格。今天这大约值1100美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额是最大的争议？自动驾驶汽车呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Stop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>不要因为电动汽车业务而说特斯拉的估值相当于每股1,000美元。然后又是1000美元，因为机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Waymo这样的特斯拉机器人出租车不会成为现实？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.</p><p><blockquote>我认为你将拥有商业机器人出租车。你将拥有消费者机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉处于领先地位，但竞争对手，尤其是来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>，正在提供具有视觉、激光雷达、雷达和高清测绘功能的更昂贵的系统，使他们能够缩小差距。每个人最终都会到达那里——埃隆已经说过了。特斯拉的功能仍然会让特斯拉卖出更多的特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why did you start the Future Fund ETF?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么要启动未来基金ETF？</b></blockquote></p><p> Secular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长是其基石。我们希望利用正在改变世界的10个长期大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are they?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它们是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> They are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：[1]24/7信息和娱乐，[2]社交网络，[3]移动性-随时随地工作-[4]电子商务，[5]金融科技创新，[6]大数据和安全，[7]人们寿命更长，[8]生活方式改善，[9]自动化和[10]可持续发展。那是10个。</blockquote></p><p> And so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们试图做的是找到那些以大趋势为推动力的公司。第一，我们寻求高增长，20%的收入增长。我们正在寻找无杠杆品牌，即在一个细分市场非常成功的品牌，并将其带入其他细分市场，或者在一个地区取得成功并可以走向全球的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> No. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>第二，我们在寻找投资争议。我们正在寻找存在争斗且投资者不同意的地方。这就是创造机会的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s your research process like?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的研究过程是怎样的？</b></blockquote></p><p> We go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.</p><p><blockquote>我们出去，我说话。我们和很多竞争对手谈过。当我还是分析师的时候，我经常做焦点小组。花2000美元，你可以让10个人呆在一个房间里，问他们为什么不喜欢Beyond Meat[BYND]和Impossible[Foods]。我们通常可以找到给我研究优势的信息来回答争议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>And how do you build your portfolio?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你如何建立你的投资组合？</b></blockquote></p><p> We want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.</p><p><blockquote>我们想要一个高度可信的投资组合，这意味着不超过40个名字。排名前10的名字约占投资组合的40%。所以这对我来说是高度的信念。</blockquote></p><p> We think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为我们有非常严格的买卖纪律。当我们将某样东西放入投资组合时，我们希望它的风险调整后上行空间与下行空间至少为2：1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else do you like, besides Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除了特斯拉，你还喜欢什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have Google [parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.</p><p><blockquote>我们有谷歌[父<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>]，这正在改变世界。谷歌和特斯拉一样都是大盘股。但我们认为You Tube是24/7的信息和娱乐。YouTube被严重低估了。他们仍在通过[搜索]赚钱。它有15%到20%的良好收入增长。预计市盈率为22倍，对我们来说仍然是一个[有吸引力的]价格。</blockquote></p><p> Another name we have is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.</p><p><blockquote>另一个名字是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>[CMG]。它符合健康饮食、保持身材的大趋势。我们看涨期权it生活方式的改善。他们的产品创新非常出色——他们推出了这些卷油炸玉米饼，第三季度同店销售额将达到15%。这对我们来说是一只很棒的股票。不便宜。但它有很高的成长性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How about a couple more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来几个怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我们拥有的一个有争议的名字是腾讯控股[TCEHY]。它是世界上最大的互联网公司之一。它拥有12亿微信用户。我们认为，中国监管的担忧有些过头了。腾讯控股目前的市盈率约为明年市盈率的25倍。我们认为至少在未来几年内，它的收入可能会增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac</a> [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">通用</a>[GNRC]是另一个。我们将其看涨期权为气候变化股票。因为气候变化正在发生，所以有很多野火。你有很多不正常的天气模式。在今天的新房子里，人们最常见的特征之一就是发电机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家庭中的电池存储会扰乱Generac的销售吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Battery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>电池和太阳能供电的墙壁和屋顶仍然很贵——4万美元。Generac系统起价为2,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个？</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?</p><p><blockquote>SNAP【SNAP】是另一个名字。如果你有孩子，Snap是每个人都在使用的应用程序之一。ARPU（或每用户平均收入）为每年13美元，比一年前增长约30%。今年活跃用户将增长约20%。你用抖音吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>No.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有。</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap面临的最大风险是18至25岁人群想要使用的更好的其他东西。而Tik Tok是Snap的颠覆者。但是我有这个年龄段的孩子，他们三个，他们都用Snap。</blockquote></p><p> The monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].</p><p><blockquote>货币化才刚刚开始。全球扩张才刚刚开始。我认为你至少有三四年的[增长]。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks, Gary.</p><p><blockquote>谢谢，加里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 17:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-trick, or one-stock, pony.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>听听Gary Black对特斯拉的看法。但这位投资老手不仅仅是一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-诡计，或一只股票，小马。</blockquote></p><p> He has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>他为成长型投资者提供了其他选择，以及一只新的主动管理型ETF：未来基金（股票代码：FFND），旨在利用他认为正在改变世界的10个大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.</p><p><blockquote>该基金才成立几周。布莱克从1992年开始在伯恩斯坦担任研究分析师，从事投资行业已有大约30年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> After Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>在伯恩斯坦之后，布莱克转向买方，曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理公司、骏利和全球保险集团等。在Aegon之后短暂休息后，Black进入了主动管理型ETF的领域。</blockquote></p><p> He sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.</p><p><blockquote>他与《巴伦周刊》坐下来谈论他的新基金、他的投资方法以及他投资的一些股票。以下是对话的编辑版本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Barron’s: </b>We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?</p><p><blockquote><b>巴伦周刊：</b>我们可能要从特斯拉（TSLA）开始。您如何评估特斯拉股票？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Black:</b> I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑色：</b>我认为全球[汽车销量]将在大约五年内达到什么水平，以及电动汽车的采用率——到2025年将达到25%。这就是特斯拉最大的投资争议：随着竞争对手进入市场，它能否保持大约25%的电动汽车份额？如果可以的话，到2025年我将获得大约32美元左右的收入。即使我给它打50倍，考虑到预计55%的平均年盈利增长率，这个数字也相当低。我得到1600美元的价格。今天这大约值1100美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额是最大的争议？自动驾驶汽车呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Stop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>不要因为电动汽车业务而说特斯拉的估值相当于每股1,000美元。然后又是1000美元，因为机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Waymo这样的特斯拉机器人出租车不会成为现实？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.</p><p><blockquote>我认为你将拥有商业机器人出租车。你将拥有消费者机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉处于领先地位，但竞争对手，尤其是来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>，正在提供具有视觉、激光雷达、雷达和高清测绘功能的更昂贵的系统，使他们能够缩小差距。每个人最终都会到达那里——埃隆已经说过了。特斯拉的功能仍然会让特斯拉卖出更多的特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why did you start the Future Fund ETF?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么要启动未来基金ETF？</b></blockquote></p><p> Secular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长是其基石。我们希望利用正在改变世界的10个长期大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are they?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它们是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> They are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：[1]24/7信息和娱乐，[2]社交网络，[3]移动性-随时随地工作-[4]电子商务，[5]金融科技创新，[6]大数据和安全，[7]人们寿命更长，[8]生活方式改善，[9]自动化和[10]可持续发展。那是10个。</blockquote></p><p> And so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们试图做的是找到那些以大趋势为推动力的公司。第一，我们寻求高增长，20%的收入增长。我们正在寻找无杠杆品牌，即在一个细分市场非常成功的品牌，并将其带入其他细分市场，或者在一个地区取得成功并可以走向全球的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> No. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>第二，我们在寻找投资争议。我们正在寻找存在争斗且投资者不同意的地方。这就是创造机会的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s your research process like?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的研究过程是怎样的？</b></blockquote></p><p> We go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.</p><p><blockquote>我们出去，我说话。我们和很多竞争对手谈过。当我还是分析师的时候，我经常做焦点小组。花2000美元，你可以让10个人呆在一个房间里，问他们为什么不喜欢Beyond Meat[BYND]和Impossible[Foods]。我们通常可以找到给我研究优势的信息来回答争议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>And how do you build your portfolio?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你如何建立你的投资组合？</b></blockquote></p><p> We want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.</p><p><blockquote>我们想要一个高度可信的投资组合，这意味着不超过40个名字。排名前10的名字约占投资组合的40%。所以这对我来说是高度的信念。</blockquote></p><p> We think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为我们有非常严格的买卖纪律。当我们将某样东西放入投资组合时，我们希望它的风险调整后上行空间与下行空间至少为2：1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else do you like, besides Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除了特斯拉，你还喜欢什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have Google [parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.</p><p><blockquote>我们有谷歌[父<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>]，这正在改变世界。谷歌和特斯拉一样都是大盘股。但我们认为You Tube是24/7的信息和娱乐。YouTube被严重低估了。他们仍在通过[搜索]赚钱。它有15%到20%的良好收入增长。预计市盈率为22倍，对我们来说仍然是一个[有吸引力的]价格。</blockquote></p><p> Another name we have is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.</p><p><blockquote>另一个名字是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>[CMG]。它符合健康饮食、保持身材的大趋势。我们看涨期权it生活方式的改善。他们的产品创新非常出色——他们推出了这些卷油炸玉米饼，第三季度同店销售额将达到15%。这对我们来说是一只很棒的股票。不便宜。但它有很高的成长性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How about a couple more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来几个怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我们拥有的一个有争议的名字是腾讯控股[TCEHY]。它是世界上最大的互联网公司之一。它拥有12亿微信用户。我们认为，中国监管的担忧有些过头了。腾讯控股目前的市盈率约为明年市盈率的25倍。我们认为至少在未来几年内，它的收入可能会增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac</a> [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">通用</a>[GNRC]是另一个。我们将其看涨期权为气候变化股票。因为气候变化正在发生，所以有很多野火。你有很多不正常的天气模式。在今天的新房子里，人们最常见的特征之一就是发电机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家庭中的电池存储会扰乱Generac的销售吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Battery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>电池和太阳能供电的墙壁和屋顶仍然很贵——4万美元。Generac系统起价为2,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个？</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?</p><p><blockquote>SNAP【SNAP】是另一个名字。如果你有孩子，Snap是每个人都在使用的应用程序之一。ARPU（或每用户平均收入）为每年13美元，比一年前增长约30%。今年活跃用户将增长约20%。你用抖音吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>No.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有。</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap面临的最大风险是18至25岁人群想要使用的更好的其他东西。而Tik Tok是Snap的颠覆者。但是我有这个年龄段的孩子，他们三个，他们都用Snap。</blockquote></p><p> The monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].</p><p><blockquote>货币化才刚刚开始。全球扩张才刚刚开始。我认为你至少有三四年的[增长]。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks, Gary.</p><p><blockquote>谢谢，加里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-ideas-gary-black-tesla-51631058814?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","FFND":"One Global ETF","GNRC":"Generac控股","SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-ideas-gary-black-tesla-51631058814?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175171654","content_text":"Investors listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a one-trick, or one-stock, pony.\nHe has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.\nThat fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.\nAfter Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.\nHe sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.\nBarron’s: We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?\nBlack: I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.\nMarket share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?\nStop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.\nTesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?\nI think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.\nTesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from China, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.\nWhy did you start the Future Fund ETF?\nSecular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.\nWhat are they?\nThey are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.\nAnd so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.\nNo. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.\nWhat’s your research process like?\nWe go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.\nAnd how do you build your portfolio?\nWe want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.\nWe think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.\nWhat else do you like, besides Tesla?\nWe have Google [parent Alphabet ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.\nAnother name we have is Chipotle Mexican Grill [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.\nHow about a couple more?\nOne of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.\nGenerac [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.\nCan Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?\nBattery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.\nOne more?\nSnap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?\nNo.\nThe biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.\nThe monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].\nThanks, Gary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"SNAP":0.9,"FFND":0.9,"GNRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889050456"}
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