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2021-09-09

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Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋天持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889415762,"tweetId":"889415762","gmtCreate":1631168578156,"gmtModify":1632884177020,"author":{"id":3581992421704233,"idStr":"3581992421704233","authorId":3581992421704233,"authorIdStr":"3581992421704233","name":"Chrissssy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670519b0df7f01f6802e6a220a6fc578","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":45,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like pleaseeeee</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like pleaseeeee</body></html>","text":"Like pleaseeeee","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889415762","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋天持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.<blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季的股市做出了谨慎的展望。他们加入了一个不断壮大的合唱团。</blockquote> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.<blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市却不那么乐观。美联储缩减规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天股市上涨。</blockquote> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.<blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席跨资产策略师安德鲁-希茨（Andrew Sheets）认为，未来几个月将 “坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出的评级。美国银行证券 (BofA Securities) 美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 发布了两项标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.<blockquote>“她写道：”投资者情绪和估值都在延长--很多乐观情绪已经被消化--我们的长期估值模型显示，标普500在未来十年将出现负回报率（年化回报率为-0.8%），这是自科技泡沫以来的首次。</blockquote> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.<blockquote>Subramanian 预计今年年底标普500将降至 4250，比目前 4500 左右的水平下降约 6%。她预计该指数将在 2022 年底反弹至 4600 点，较今天仅上涨 2%。</blockquote> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标--一个反向指标--正在发出欣喜若狂的信号，而此时她却开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力的阻力。此外： 未来一年的利率可能会更高而不是更低--这将对估值倍数造成压力--苏布拉马尼亚在标普500指数层面上并没有什么值得称道的地方。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:FactSet<blockquote>资料来源：事实集</blockquote> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>希茨预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新所谓的未来利率预测 “点阵图 ”，以显示加息速度快于预期。希茨认为，这些应该会推高国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.<blockquote>国会就传统和 “社会 ”基础设施法案以及潜在的更高企业和个人税展开的争论将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。Sheets 写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.<blockquote>展望未来，他有两种看法：更多的财政刺激、更少的 Covid-19 以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对高价股构成挑战，并可能引发 “增长恐慌 ”抛售。</blockquote> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.<blockquote>无论哪种方式，这都意味着股市回报为负，而 Sheets 更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。摩根士丹利策略师将 2022 年中期标普500目标定为 4225 股，较此前下降约 6%。</blockquote> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”<blockquote>“谢茨写道：”这是一个正常的困境。“在经济衰退后的最初反弹之后，经济增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济的改善通常会带来更大的成本压力和通货膨胀。这通常意味着央行会转向收紧政策。”</blockquote> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.<blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临，也不是说收益会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是普通股票表现不佳的一个阶段。</blockquote> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚对此表示赞同： “她写道：”这种环境对利率、通货膨胀和面向美国经济增长的公司都有利。“尽管我们对股票的前景更为谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域处于有利地位： 买入通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股”。</blockquote> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.<blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，苏布拉马尼亚认为，未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能会带来潜在好处。此外，比大盘股更便宜的相对估值使得小盘股的提升空间较小。</blockquote> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.<blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素 2000 指数目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 29 倍，而过去 25 年的平均价格约为 27.5 倍。相比之下，标普500目前的远期市盈率超过 22 倍，长期平均水平约为 17 倍。</blockquote> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”<blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长股票。“Subramanian 写道：”债券提供的收益率没有通胀保护，大宗商品提供的是通胀风险，但没有收益率。“股票处于中间位置： 与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，随着通货膨胀而增长”。</blockquote> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚尤其喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些行业将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.<blockquote>据一份报告称，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）巴伦筛选这些行业的股息增长型股票。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋天持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋天持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-09-09 10:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.<blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季的股市做出了谨慎的展望。他们加入了一个不断壮大的合唱团。</blockquote> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.<blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市却不那么乐观。美联储缩减规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天股市上涨。</blockquote> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.<blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席跨资产策略师安德鲁-希茨（Andrew Sheets）认为，未来几个月将 “坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出的评级。美国银行证券 (BofA Securities) 美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 发布了两项标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.<blockquote>“她写道：”投资者情绪和估值都在延长--很多乐观情绪已经被消化--我们的长期估值模型显示，标普500在未来十年将出现负回报率（年化回报率为-0.8%），这是自科技泡沫以来的首次。</blockquote> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.<blockquote>Subramanian 预计今年年底标普500将降至 4250，比目前 4500 左右的水平下降约 6%。她预计该指数将在 2022 年底反弹至 4600 点，较今天仅上涨 2%。</blockquote> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标--一个反向指标--正在发出欣喜若狂的信号，而此时她却开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力的阻力。此外： 未来一年的利率可能会更高而不是更低--这将对估值倍数造成压力--苏布拉马尼亚在标普500指数层面上并没有什么值得称道的地方。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:FactSet<blockquote>资料来源：事实集</blockquote> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>希茨预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新所谓的未来利率预测 “点阵图 ”，以显示加息速度快于预期。希茨认为，这些应该会推高国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.<blockquote>国会就传统和 “社会 ”基础设施法案以及潜在的更高企业和个人税展开的争论将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。Sheets 写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.<blockquote>展望未来，他有两种看法：更多的财政刺激、更少的 Covid-19 以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对高价股构成挑战，并可能引发 “增长恐慌 ”抛售。</blockquote> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.<blockquote>无论哪种方式，这都意味着股市回报为负，而 Sheets 更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。摩根士丹利策略师将 2022 年中期标普500目标定为 4225 股，较此前下降约 6%。</blockquote> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”<blockquote>“谢茨写道：”这是一个正常的困境。“在经济衰退后的最初反弹之后，经济增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济的改善通常会带来更大的成本压力和通货膨胀。这通常意味着央行会转向收紧政策。”</blockquote> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.<blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临，也不是说收益会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是普通股票表现不佳的一个阶段。</blockquote> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚对此表示赞同： “她写道：”这种环境对利率、通货膨胀和面向美国经济增长的公司都有利。“尽管我们对股票的前景更为谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域处于有利地位： 买入通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股”。</blockquote> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.<blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，苏布拉马尼亚认为，未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能会带来潜在好处。此外，比大盘股更便宜的相对估值使得小盘股的提升空间较小。</blockquote> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.<blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素 2000 指数目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 29 倍，而过去 25 年的平均价格约为 27.5 倍。相比之下，标普500目前的远期市盈率超过 22 倍，长期平均水平约为 17 倍。</blockquote> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”<blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长股票。“Subramanian 写道：”债券提供的收益率没有通胀保护，大宗商品提供的是通胀风险，但没有收益率。“股票处于中间位置： 与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，随着通货膨胀而增长”。</blockquote> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚尤其喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些行业将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.<blockquote>据一份报告称，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）巴伦筛选这些行业的股息增长型股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889415762"}