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2021-09-09

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Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889527168,"tweetId":"889527168","gmtCreate":1631160845654,"gmtModify":1631883969054,"author":{"id":3581658741892979,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorId":3581658741892979,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like my comnent</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like my comnent</body></html>","text":"Like my comnent","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889527168","repostId":1158905975,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905975","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631160341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158905975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905975","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li> <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li> <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li> <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li> <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.<blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.<blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote> NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model<blockquote>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</blockquote> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.<blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote> Sales Boost by Innovation<blockquote>创新推动销售</blockquote> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.<blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.<blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.<blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote> Increasing Global Market Share<blockquote>增加全球市场份额</blockquote> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.<blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.<blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.<blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote> Growing via Horizontal Expansion<blockquote>通过横向扩张实现增长</blockquote> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.<blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.<blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote> Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model<blockquote>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</blockquote> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.<blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote> Pre-Launch Momentum<blockquote>发射前的势头</blockquote> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.<blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.<blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote> Asset Lite Business Model<blockquote>轻资产商业模式</blockquote> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.<blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.<blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.<blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.<blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote> Financial ProspectsNIO<blockquote>财务前景蔚来汽车</blockquote> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.<blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.<blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.<blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Fisker<blockquote>菲斯克</blockquote> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.<blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.<blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.<blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.<blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.<blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.<blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.<blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote> i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:<blockquote>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.<blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote> ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:<blockquote>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.<blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.<blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-09 12:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li> <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li> <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li> <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li> <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.<blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.<blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote> NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model<blockquote>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</blockquote> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.<blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote> Sales Boost by Innovation<blockquote>创新推动销售</blockquote> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.<blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.<blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.<blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote> Increasing Global Market Share<blockquote>增加全球市场份额</blockquote> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.<blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.<blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.<blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote> Growing via Horizontal Expansion<blockquote>通过横向扩张实现增长</blockquote> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.<blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.<blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote> Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model<blockquote>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</blockquote> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.<blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote> Pre-Launch Momentum<blockquote>发射前的势头</blockquote> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.<blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.<blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote> Asset Lite Business Model<blockquote>轻资产商业模式</blockquote> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.<blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.<blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.<blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.<blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote> Financial ProspectsNIO<blockquote>财务前景蔚来汽车</blockquote> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.<blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.<blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.<blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Fisker<blockquote>菲斯克</blockquote> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.<blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.<blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.<blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.<blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.<blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.<blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.<blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote> i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:<blockquote>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.<blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote> ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:<blockquote>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.<blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.<blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905975","content_text":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.\nGlobal EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.\nBut the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.\nA similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.\nWhile our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40% from 2019. And EV sales are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.\nBut the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of NIO and Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.\nNIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model\nIn the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.\nSales Boost by Innovation\nIn addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.\nMost recently, NIO announced the addition of a 150 kWh solid-state battery pack to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.\nAlthough the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a preference for EVs with higher range capability to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging Power Charger stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build 4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.\nIncreasing Global Market Share\nThe Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.\nNIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.\nFollowing its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.\nGrowing via Horizontal Expansion\nThe coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.\nNIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.\nFisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model\nIn contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.\nPre-Launch Momentum\nTo date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.\nLike NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.\nAsset Lite Business Model\nSimilar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.\nThe Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.\nIn addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.\nAside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.\nFinancial ProspectsNIO\nDespite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.\nNIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nNIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nFisker\nOn the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.\nThe PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.\nFisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nWith Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with our recent analyses performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.\nWe have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.\nFor NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.\ni. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOn the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.\nii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOver the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.\nConclusion\nWhile accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889527168"}